Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for Samar relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Projected Seasonal Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Rainfall amount
Rainfall Amount
Change Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Percent (%) (mm)
(mm)

Lower Bound -42.2 -375.1 514.4

Moderate
December-January- Emission Median -2.5 -22.1 867.4
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) 14.7 130.4 1019.9
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -12.7 -113.1 776.4

High Emission
889.5 mm (RCP8.5) Median 2.0 18.0 907.5
Upper Bound 29.4 261.2 1150.7
Lower Bound -42.3 -185.0 252.0
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median -2.8 -12.3 424.7
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) 20.6 89.9 526.9
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -23.6 -103.1 333.9

High Emission
437 mm (RCP8.5) Median -0.4 -1.8 435.2
Upper Bound 10.2 44.7 481.7
Lower Bound -51.7 -310.1 289.7
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median -16.8 -100.6 499.2
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) 3.9 23.4 623.2
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -25.3 -151.7 448.1

High Emission
599.8 mm (RCP8.5) Median -11.1 -66.7 533.1
Upper Bound 4.3 26.1 625.9
September-October-
Lower Bound -54.7 -480.7 398.7
Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median -12.7 -111.8 767.6
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound -4.6 -40.4 839.0
Lower Bound -27.0 -237.3 642.1
High Emission
Observed baseline = (RCP8.5) Median -8.2 -71.8 807.6
879.4 mm
Upper Bound 1.2 10.9 890.3
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile
 Projected Changes in Seasonal Temperature in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for Samar relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Season Scenario Range* Information about patterns of Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Change in ℃ Projected Seasonal Mean Change
Temperature (℃)

Lower Bound 1.0 27.3

Moderate
December-January- Emission Median 1.2 27.5
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) Upper Bound 1.7 28.0
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 1.3 27.6
High Emission
26.3 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 1.5 27.8
Upper Bound 2.1 28.4
Lower Bound 1.0 28.9
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median 1.2 29.1
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) Upper Bound 1.8 29.7
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 1.4 29.3
High Emission
27.9 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 1.7 29.6
Upper Bound 2.3 30.2
Lower Bound 1.0 29.4
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median 1.2 29.6
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) Upper Bound 1.8 30.2
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 1.4 29.8
High Emission
28.4 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 1.6 30.0
Upper Bound 2.3 30.7
September-October-
Lower Bound 1.0 28.8
Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median 1.2 29.0
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 1.8 29.6
Lower Bound 1.4 29.2
High Emission
Observed baseline = (RCP8.5) Median 1.6 29.4
27.8 ℃
Upper Bound 2.3 30.1
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile
 Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Late-21st Century (2070-2099) for Samar relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Projected Seasonal Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Rainfall amount
Rainfall Amount
Change Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Percent (%) (mm)
(mm)

Lower Bound -48.0 -426.7 462.8

Moderate
December-January- Emission Median 11.2 99.9 989.4
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) 15.9 141.6 1031.1
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -39.8 -354.3 535.2

High Emission
889.5 mm (RCP8.5) Median -0.2 -1.5 888.0
Upper Bound 19.8 175.7 1065.2
Lower Bound -46.8 -204.6 232.4
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median -4.1 -17.9 419.1
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) 11.6 50.7 487.7
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -23.6 -103.1 333.9

High Emission
437 mm (RCP8.5) Median 5.3 23.3 460.3
Upper Bound 11.6 50.8 487.8
Lower Bound -57.7 -346.4 253.4
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median -16.2 -97.4 502.4
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) -4.3 -25.6 574.2
Upper Bound

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -44.5 -266.9 332.9

High Emission
599.8 mm (RCP8.5) Median -25.1 -150.7 449.1
Upper Bound -4.4 -26.5 573.3
September-October-
Lower Bound -54.5 -479.7 399.7
Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median -19.3 -169.8 709.6
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 4.2 36.7 916.1
Lower Bound -54.6 -479.8 399.6
High Emission
Observed baseline = (RCP8.5) Median -27.9 -245.4 634.0
879.4 mm
Upper Bound 2.7 24.1 903.5
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile
 Projected Changes in Seasonal Temperature in the Late-21st Century (2070-2099) for Samar relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Season Scenario Range* Information about patterns of Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Change in ℃ Projected Seasonal Mean Change
Temperature (℃)

Lower Bound 1.3 27.6

Moderate
December-January- Emission Median 1.5 27.8
(RCP4.5)
February (DJF) Upper Bound 2.4 28.7
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 2.4 28.7
High Emission
26.3 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 2.9 29.2
Upper Bound 3.7 30.0
Lower Bound 1.4 29.3
Moderate
March-April-May Emission Median 1.6 29.5
(RCP4.5)
(MAM) Upper Bound 2.5 30.4
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 2.6 30.5
High Emission
27.9 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 3.1 31.0
Upper Bound 4.0 31.9
Lower Bound 1.3 29.7
Moderate
June-July-August Emission Median 1.5 29.9
(RCP4.5)
(JJA) Upper Bound 2.5 30.9
Observed baseline = Lower Bound 2.7 31.1
High Emission
28.4 ℃ (RCP8.5) Median 3.2 31.6
Upper Bound 4.2 32.6
September-October-
Lower Bound 1.3 29.1
Moderate
November (SON) Emission Median 1.5 29.3
(RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 2.5 30.3
Lower Bound 2.6 30.4
High Emission
Observed baseline = (RCP8.5) Median 3.1 30.9
27.8 ℃
Upper Bound 4.1 31.9
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile