Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

The Four ‘isms’ – Globalism,
Nationalism, Protectionism &
Unilateralism
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 28, 2020
We are preparing a report on the decline of globalization and the rise of nationalism.
We request your analytical input into the following questions:

Q1. What are the changes in the world order, especially with the weakening of the old
economic powers and the rise of emerging economies?
ANSWER: The post-World War 2 liberal international order, led by the United States,
is in decline. This trend has been accelerated by President Donald Trump with his
America First unilateral transactional policies and his single-minded drive to balance
America’s trade balance. Trump’s policies have opened space for China to expand its
economic and political influence through trade, loans and development assistance on
a global scale. The hallmark of the Xi Jin-ping regime is his Belt and Road Initiative.
Prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was expected that the group of
countries known collectively as the BRICS would grow in economic power relative to
the United States and Europe. The BRICS comprise Brazil, Russia, India, China, and
South Africa.
The era of Pax Americana or American primacy is giving way to a much more complex
international order. China will not replace the U.S. as the global leader as it has not
real allies and few if any countries aspire to emulate China’s political system.
The new global order will not be multipolar either. Globalisation has created sufficient
economic interdependence that major powers will have cross-cutting ties to the
United States, China and each other. States will remain the key but not only important
actor in global affairs as non-state actors and international movements will group
forces that transcend national borders.
The new global order, to borrow from Amitav Acharya, will be multi-plex. Relations
among the major powers will be fluid. Coalitions will form around particular issues,
such as climate change, and reform around other issues such a regionalism because
of the weakening of multinational institutions such as the United Nations, World Trade
Organisation and World Health Organisation.
 2

Q2. Unilateralism and protectionism in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic are
perceived to create a less open and less free world, so how will this affect the
globalization?
ANSWER: Prior to the coronavirus, China was expected to overtake the United States
in terms of purchasing power parity (ppp) by 2030. By 2050, according to estimates,
India will overtake China to become the largest economy in the world at $86 trillion
as measured by ppp, followed by China $80 trillion and the United States $39 trillion.
The expected rise of the BRICS has been stalled by COVID-19. Brazil, India, Russia and
South Africa are among the five most pandemic-affected countries globally, after the
United States.
Until the world recovers from COVID-19 the world economy will shrink because supply
chains will be interrupted due to closed borders, the curtailment of international
travel, and the slow-down in domestic production as countries recover. National
economies will become more inward looking as they hedge against dependence on
one source for vital medical supplies and technology.
Globalisation is likely to revive in fits in starts on a regional basis but its global reach
will be constrained by countries where nationalism and protectionism run high. It
will also take time to restore trust and confidence in multilateral institutions that
failed to exert leadership during COVID-19.
Globalisation will also be constrained by continued U.S.-China strategic rivalry that
will entail decoupling their economies in sensitive areas such as artificial intelligence
and other advanced and emerging technologies.
Asia, North America and Europe will be the main centres of economic growth in a
multi-plex world order.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “The Four ‘isms’ – Globalism, Nationalism,

Protectionism & Unilateralism,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 28, 2020.
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.