7/29/2020 Duterte: The question of succession | Inquirer Opinion

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Duterte: The question of succession

By: Richard Heydarian - @inquirerdotnet Philippine Daily Inquirer / 04:07 AM July 28, 2020

In retrospect, President Duterte’s fifth State of the Nation Address (Sona) EDITORS' PICK MOST READ

will likely be his most important. More than ever, the question of succession NEWSINFO
ABS-CBN fallout:
looms over the horizon, as the President grapples with what has become
Legislator seeks probe of
among the worst epidemic outbreaks and economic crises in the region. all major media firms’
PDRs

In just over a year from now, the next presidential campaign will effectively ENTERTAINMENT
Mang Bok’s Lechon
commence. A number of top contenders, especially Sen. Manny Pacquiao, Manok joins Siomai King
have already signaled their intentions. Quietly helping frontliners and the family

worst-affected communities on the ground, Vice President Leni Robredo is NEWSINFO

Chiz Escudero urges
gaining momentum while weighing her options. public to demand more
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The ultimate dark horse, however, is Manila Mayor Isko Moreno, the hottest
political figure in town. He faces a similar quandary as Sen. Grace Poe in
2016: If he stays longer in (Manila’s byzantine) politics, he risks losing
momentum. But if he is perceived to be running for the highest office too
soon, he may peak too early. The stakes are too high to ignore.

Perhaps more than any country, the succession question is of immense

importance to Filipino presidents. On one hand, they are constrained with
only a single term in office, undercutting their ability to sustain long-term-
oriented reforms. In a country with no real political parties, personal bonds
are often the best indications of policy direction.

Reformist presidents Fidel Ramos and Benigno Aquino III painfully

grappled with this dilemma, as populist successors reversed much of their
liberal democratic gains. One could just imagine the Philippines’ alternative
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trajectory had Ramos and Aquino been able to sustain their reforms
through reliable successors
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7/29/2020 Duterte: The question of succession | Inquirer Opinion
through reliable successors.

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Moreover, similar to the United States, there is a strong anti-incumbency
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bias throughout election cycles. In America’s case, this tends to happen after
eight years of rule under a single party or successively elected president.
Even when faced with less-than-stellar Republican challengers, relatively
popular Democratic presidents like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama failed to
ensure their preferred successor’s victory.

Third, and most crucially, the Philippines is eerily similar to South Korea
when it comes to the cruel fate of ex-presidents. Since their transition to
democracy, Koreans have forced several presidents either into jail, suicide,
or even impeachment over allegations of corruption and abuse of power.

However, though our democratic experience exceeds Korea’s in temporal

terms, our institutional checks and balances have proven far less mature.
The success of the Edsa I and Edsa II “people power” revolts was
determined less by judicial accountability than by the military’s withdrawal
of institutional support from disgraced presidents.

Nonetheless, the past two decades have seen a reliable pattern of political
persecution against former presidents, with one temporarily ending up in
jail for plunder and another confined to a years-long de facto house arrest.
As for the third one, he was subjected to nothing less than legislative
harassment by overnight anti-vaxxers, while constantly grappling with the
specter of more vicious forms of politically motivated persecution.

Having alienated powerful elements across the world, President Duterte

faces an even more acute dilemma. Allegations of widespread human rights
violations could even portend full-fledged International Criminal Court
prosecution and personal sanctions by major countries.

Barring an 11th-hour constitutional overhaul, a “nuclear option” that

constantly lurks in the shadows, Mr. Duterte’s best hope to avoid the fate of
his predecessors is to ensure a friendly, if not subservient, successor.

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Davao’s youthful and charismatic Mayor Sara Duterte has seemed the most
viable contender to succeed her father. Her unwillingness to contest what
would have been a crucial and relatively smooth Senate run last year
revealed the mayor’s likely alternative plans. But so far, it looks like the
presidential daughter is far more focused on consolidating the “Solid South”
bloc, which did remarkably well during the 2019 elections.

And this brings us to the ever-loyal consiglieri and now Sen. Bong Go, who
had a solid performance in the 2019 elections. Defying his detractors, the
presidential aide got as many as 20 million votes last year, underscoring his
political dynamism and indispensability to the Duterte administration’s day-
to-day operations. Among pundits, he is seen as the de facto heir apparent.

It goes without saying, however, that Mr. Duterte’s ability to shape the post-
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2022 landscape will depend much on the state of his political capital in the
coming months The decisive factor is regaining public trust over his crisis
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7/29/2020 Duterte: The question of succession | Inquirer Opinion
coming months. The decisive factor is regaining public trust over his crisis-
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management Wednesday, July now under withering public scrutiny.
29, 2020  TODAY'S PAPER 
rheydarian@inquirer.com.ph

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