S P E C I A L R E P O R T

A FAILURE TO LEAD

FALSE
fter Minnesota Governor
Tim Walz first declared a
peacetime emergency on March 13 and
signed his sweeping state shutdown order
on March 25, we both started paying
Governor Walz close attention to developments related
announced his sweeping to the COVID-19 epidemic in Minnesota.
executive order on As we followed the news daily on Power
March 25, four days after Line (powerlineblog.com, where Scott
Minnesota recorded its
significant phenomena occurring across
the country concerning the epidemic.
Combining our interests in politics, pub-
lic policy, media, and the health care in-
dustry, we seek to do the same here, with
a longer look back. We hope to clarify a
few of the big-picture conclusions that
have emerged from the data and yet
remain obscured in the public relations

ALARM
regularly contributes) and on Healthy of the responsible public officers and the
first death attributed to
Skeptic (healthy-skeptic.com, where mostly-sycophantic press coverage of
the virus. Walz chose to
Kevin writes), we hoped that our focus their efforts.
set forth an apocalyptic
vision of doom.
on Minnesota might help illustrate more Before looking back, we would like to
highlight 10 conclusions.

(1) It became apparent early on

that the epidemic presented a risk
of fatality to elderly nursing-home
residents with serious medical
conditions. They represent some 80
percent of all Minnesota COVID-19
fatalities and have done so since the

Using a
start of the epidemic. Yet Walz’s
administration sent recovering coro-
navirus patients from hospitals to
preposterously nursing homes, which exacerbated
an already bad situation. 

flawed (2) Others who died with seri-

scientific model,
ous medical conditions outside
long-term care facilities account for
almost all the rest of the fatalities.
Gov. Tim Walz The Minnesota Model
Those with serious underlying medi-
cal conditions—both in and out of

waged a campaign touted by Walz quickly

congregate living settings—account
for roughly 98 percent of all deaths

of fear to shut proved to be a farcical attributed to the disease. By our

calculation, these conditions affect
embarrassment. There approximately 15 percent of Min-
down Minnesota’s is no conceivable set of
circumstances in which
nesotans. 

economy. the projection of 74,000

(3) The median age of all decedents
is approximately 83. The disease
deaths was reasonable, and presents almost no risk of death to
the relatively young and the relatively
that should have been clear healthy. As we write, only two per-
BY S COT T W. J O H N S O N A N D K E V I N R O C H E
when Walz asserted it. sons under the age of 30 and 10 under
the age of 40 have died of the disease
in Minnesota. 

36 SUMMER 2020 THINKING MINNESOTA THINKING MINNESOTA SUMMER 2020 37

 S P E C I A L R E P O R T
A FAILURE TO LEAD
(4) If those with serious medical condi-
tions were warned of the risk and
encouraged to act appropriately, the
rest of the state could be set free to go
about its business.  many of our residents. With no basis
(5) Walz has rejected this option, assert-
ing that the disease places everyone at
significant risk. This statement is false,
based on the data from Minnesota and
across the country, and based on the
risk relative to many other causes of
death.  care units and hospital capacity. Ac-
(6) Most Minnesotans who contract the
virus are asymptomatic or have mild
illness. Testing of the exposed popula-
tion at the Worthington meatpack-
ing plant showed that 90 percent of
employees who tested positive were
asymptomatic.  Walz jumps in  long time to come.)  rassment. As we write, the authorities
(7) Although it gets lost in the torrent of
words in his public comments, Walz
has asserted that the measures he has
taken only delay the inevitable. Ac-
cording to former state epidemiologist
Michael Osterholm, whom Walz has
advertised among his brain trust, the
virus will infect some 60-70 percent
of Minnesotans. The virus will contin-
ue to spread until a critical mass—that
60-70 percent—reaches immunity.
Epidemiologists debate what level of
infection is needed to achieve popula-
tion immunity, but whatever the level,
we have only delayed the inevitable,
at great cost.  buy us anything good at all. Holding out
(8) Walz imposed his statewide shut-
down on the assumption that 74,000
Minnesotans would die of COVID-19
without it. He based this assertion on a
“Minnesota Model” that was allegedly
customized to fit Minnesota data. He
should have regarded the model—at
best, an extreme outlier in its predic-
tions—as highly suspect and discarded
it as a ground for any serious action.
Despite having been revised twice, the
model continues to be grossly inac-
curate in its projections. Estimates pro-
duced by any version of the model are
not even close to the actual numbers.  let this thing run its course and did noth-
38 SUMMER 2020 THINKING MINNESOTA
(9) The Governor’s shutdown led to
the loss of 800,000 jobs in Minne-
sota, seriously damaged our health
care system and harmed the health of
in science or data, children have been
held out of school and activities. Mi-
norities and low-income persons have
been especially hard-hit, with frustra-
tion resulting from the shutdown
contributing to the rioting and looting
following George Floyd’s death.  to build up the availability of intensive
(10) The print and broadcast media
in Minnesota have failed in their
essential obligation to challenge gov-
ernment assertions on behalf of the
public and to ensure the presentation
of accurate and complete data.  June, let it be noted, we are still “buying
Governor Walz announced his sweeping
executive order on March 25, four days
after Minnesota recorded its first death
attributed to the virus. While the future
course of the epidemic was uncertain,
it was already apparent that the greatest
risk was among the elderly. But Walz
chose to set forth an apocalyptic vision
of doom.
“To battle COVID,” he vowed, “we’re
going to make sure that we reduce the
Later versions of the
model have continued to
ignore clinical realities and
to project unreasonably
high deaths.
impact, especially deaths of our neigh-
bors.” Walz touted his reliance on “the
best data possible” as projected by a
tailor-made model produced by experts
at the University of Minnesota and the
Minnesota Department of Health. “We’re
using the best scientific data,” Walz
assured Minnesotans, and then issued a
warning based on the model. “If we just
ing,” Walz asserted, “upwards of 74,000
Minnesotans could be killed by this.”
And Walz emphasized that all age groups
are at risk: “Here in Minnesota, our cases
range from six months to 94 years.”  protective equipment, ICU beds, and
We’ve all heard about “flattening the
curve.” It’s become a cliché. According
to Walz, however, it was already too late
to flatten the curve in Minnesota. The
best we could do was “move the infec-
tion rate out, slow it down, and buy time”
cording to Walz, only 235 intensive care
units were available in the state. “Buy-
ing time” became a recurring theme of
the shutdown. Walz said he needed two
weeks. (As we write this article in late
time,” and we will be paying for it for a
“So the attempt here is to strike a
proper balance of making sure our
economy can function, we protect the
most vulnerable, (and) we slow the rate
(of infection) to buy us time to build our
capacity to deal with this,” Walz said.
Buying time  that should have been clear when Walz
Walz’s speech implied that we needed to
“buy time” to ward off the huge human
toll he depicted. The Minnesota Model
said so. Reading Walz’s speech closely,
one might reasonably have wondered
what “buying time” would buy us,
whether the time we were paying for
was a good deal, or whether it would
the prospect of 74,000 deaths without
the “significant mitigation” imposed by
the terms of his executive order, Walz
left us hanging. How many lives would
be saved by buying time? Walz didn’t
say exactly or explain how he arrived at
a given number. The infection rate might
be slowed, but that meant only that the
progress of the disease would be spread
out over time. Walz’s own charts showed
no practical effect. Most of us would be
exposed to the virus. How many lives
were to be saved by slowing it down?
Walz didn’t say.  model have continued to ignore clinical
The Minnesota Model touted by Walz
quickly proved to be a farcical embar-
that the health care resources to treat all
potential cases of serious illness would
prove inadequate. There were worries
in particular about shortages of personal
ventilators. Walz predicated his March
25 shutdown order on an anticipated
lack of hospital capacity and ICU avail-
ability. Yet even at the time of the shut-
down order it was apparent that there
was enormous flexibility in making
ICU beds and ventilators available for
patients who needed them (as in hard-hit
New York City).
We saw this in Minnesota as well, as
After the absurdity of the Minnesota Model projections became somehow between the initial and second
glaringly apparent, Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm offered this explanation: versions of the Minnesota Model, the
“(The model numbers) are not about specific point-in-time estimates. state’s estimated ICU capacity grew by
They are about directional changes.”
over 10 times. There is nothing magi-
have not matched those estimated by the
have attributed nearly 1,400 deaths model at any point. 
to COVID-19 in Minnesota. We will After the absurdity of the model There is nothing magical
undoubtedly exceed this number by the projections became glaringly apparent,
about an “ICU” bed;
time this article reaches print. There Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm
is nevertheless no conceivable set of offered this explanation: “(The model a patient with severe
circumstances in which the projection numbers) are not about specific point-in- illness can have his
of 74,000 deaths was reasonable, and time estimates. They are about direc-
tional changes.” No one has explained
needs met in any
asserted it.  how a number (e.g., 74,000 deaths) can number of hospital
The following week it was reported be anything other than a number. wards without regard
by Jeremy Olson in the Star Tribune that Walz has never acknowledged that he
with “significant mitigation,” the model may have placed undue reliance on the to its designation as
projected 50,000 deaths. “Buying time” Minnesota Model to shut down the state an ICU ward.
over two weeks or longer was projected following his speech. With hindsight, it
to save 24,000 lives by freeing up in- is undeniable that reliance on the model
tensive care units and hospital capacity. was misplaced. Walz, however, has never
Walz somehow omitted this refinement, been called to account for this shortcom- cal about an “ICU” bed; a patient with
perhaps in the interest of plausibility.  ing by the media. On the contrary, the severe illness can have his needs met in
The model, it turns out, was the prod- Star Tribune, for example, supported any number of hospital wards without
uct of a weekend’s work of back-of-the- the Walz administration’s after-the-fact regard to its designation as an ICU
envelope calculations by young research explanation that the data produced by the ward. And ventilator need was substan-
assistants working for the University Minnesota Model were not to be taken tially overestimated due to changes in
of Minnesota School of Public Health. literally, but rather taken figuratively to care guidelines resulting from ventilator
The School of Public Health posted an point the way. use actually worsening the condition of
April 6 profile of the assistants crowing If the Minnesota Model pointed the many patients. 
about their work: “I don’t think a lot of way, however, it pointed in the wrong It is highly unlikely that Minnesota
researchers get to work on something direction.  ever was or ever will be in any real dan-
over the weekend and have public figures ger of insufficient treatment resources.
talk about it and make decisions based on The hospital The third and most recent iteration of the
it three days later.” Later versions of the capacity rationale  model adds yet another mystery to the
One concern expressed by experts in the mix, as it has 70 percent of elderly pa-
realities and to project unreasonably high early stages of the epidemic—and sup- tients dying at home, thus never needing
deaths. The number of cases and deaths posedly validated by the model—was hospitalization (apparently based on the
THINKING MINNESOTA SUMMER 2020 39
 S P E C I A L R E P O R T

A FAILURE TO LEAD

Minnesota data). Given the heavy skew- weeks, hospitals were suffering mas- long-term care had come to dominate deaths, including fewer deaths among
ing of serious illness toward the elderly, sive losses, laying off or furlough- the fatality data in Minnesota, Chris long-term care residents, while conduct-
how would anyone therefore expect that ing employees, and closing wings. Serres reported in the Star Tribune that ing the same number of tests. Wisconsin
hospitals might be overwhelmed?  Something didn’t compute.  the Minnesota Department of Health demonstrates the lack of necessity for
Hospitals went begging for patients, To take just one prominent had evacuated COVID-19 patients from extreme shutdowns, and the ability to
and the asserted 235 available ICU example: On April 10, the Mayo hospitals to nursing homes early in the trust citizens to make their own decisions
rooms quickly morphed into more than Clinic announced a series epidemic. “Minnesota hospitals have on their risk and how to protect them-
2,000—yet the shutdown continued for of cost-cutting measures to since discharged dozens of infected pa- selves. Walz suggested that the science of
months. We won’t try to work out the address a projected $3 billion tients to nursing homes, including facili- the epidemic was somehow different in
math underlying the alleged 24,000 lives loss in 2020, half of it due to Since the issuance of the ties that have undergone large and deadly Wisconsin and has refused to relinquish
saved by the shutdown through the free- the effects of the shutdown. “battle plan,” long-term care outbreaks of the disease, state records his dictatorial emergency powers and
ing up of hospital capacity because it was Mayo announced furloughs show.” While the Walz administration show trust in Minnesotans. 
facility deaths have continued to
never more than a nightmarish fantasy.  and pay cuts affecting a third has somehow escaped criticism in the But it isn’t just Wisconsin—Minnesota
of its workforce, some 20,000 represent 80 percent or more of all local media, Minnesota’s nursing home has performed poorly in comparison
At what price?  employees. The shutdown deaths, week after week after week. crisis has become a national disgrace.  with all five Upper Midwestern states.
Public policy is the realm of costs and inflicted enormous damage The Walz administration has managed to
benefits of government actions. Tradeoffs to hospitals and health care
This is an obvious failure that rests What is to be done?  achieve both the highest rate of jobless
are the name of the game. Yet recently systems across the state.  largely with the Governor.  Neither Walz nor Commissioner Mal- claims and the highest COVID-19 death
disclosed documents show that Walz In addition, Walz has yet colm responded to our request for an rate of any Upper Midwestern state.
issued his drastic shutdown order before to acknowledge the health interview in connection with this article. Early on in the course of the epidemic
he had received any assessment of its problems that his shutdown Three months after Walz began issu- and more so with each passing week, it
economic consequences. The Depart- created. These problems derive been eviscerated.  ment of Health press officer Doug ing shutdown orders, it seems clear that became apparent that there is little risk of
ment of Employment and Economic from canceled appointments, missed vac- Walz asserted that consumers wouldn’t Schultz: “We have had deaths in people they went much too far, failed to protect serious illness or death to the vast major-
Development delivered its initial report cinations for children, increased mental return to business-as-usual as long as younger than 70 and certainly many ity of Minnesotans from COVID-19. By
on economic impacts to Walz on April 3. health issues, increased drug and alcohol they feared contracting COVID-19, cases in all age groups. It is necessary to contrast, there is a significant risk to the
Unlike the COVID model, this projec- addiction, and other recognized conse- yet he used his daily press briefings to take the community mitigation measures infirm elderly and others with serious
tion was eerily accurate. DEED said that quences of unemployment.  stoke their fears. He seems to have been we have because all Minnesotans are at Within two weeks of the medical conditions. The protection of
Walz’s shutdown could cost 805,656 The economic damage done by the waging a campaign of fear to support the risk from COVID-19, as none of us has those living in congregate care settings
shutdown, hospitals were
Minnesotans their jobs, almost exactly shutdown announced in Walz’s March merits of his shutdown orders. Consum- immunity. Some people, like those in should not be difficult. 
equal to the current total of new jobless 25 order is shocking. Around 800,000 ers are indeed fearful. Their fear should long-term care and those with underly- suffering massive losses, We agree with Walz in one respect.
claims. Yet this sobering forecast appar- Minnesotans have filed unemployment be assuaged with accurate information, ing health conditions, are far more at laying off or furloughing The best course is one that has certainty
ently had no impact, as Walz repeatedly claims. They represent the job losses and and they should be trusted to manage risk than others. But if we didn’t reduce in ending the epidemic, which is letting
extended his shutdown order. small-business closures that have yet to their behavior appropriately when armed transmission in the community as we
employees, and closing the virus burn itself out by infection of a
One perverse cost of the shutdown be fully accounted for. Consumer spend- with the facts.  have with the stay-at-home order, we wings. Something critical mass of the population, while pro-
quickly became obvious. Within two ing, the true engine of the economy, has would see far more disease circulating didn’t compute.  tecting the high-risk population. As Walz
The nursing home crisis  and many times more serious cases that acknowledged at the outset, this is a con-
The crisis located in the nursing homes would quickly overwhelm our health cession to the inevitable. The course he
and congregate care settings was evident care system....”  has chosen only protracts the process and
On April 10, the Mayo Clinic announced it would
offset a projected $3 billion loss in 2020—half
from the early days of the epidemic in When the issue of nursing home fatali- Minnesota’s most vulnerable citizens, did aggravates the adverse consequences. 
of it due to the effects of the shutdown—with Minnesota. Beginning at about two- ties became impossible to ignore, the Walz vast and needless damage to the state’s The spread of the virus leads to asymp-
furloughs and pay cuts affecting a third of its thirds, the share of all such deaths administration promulgated a “5-point economy, and were at all times unsup- tomatic or mild illness in over 95 percent
workforce, some 20,000 employees. attributed to the disease rose steadily to battle plan” to address it. Acknowledg- ported by the data. It is not apparent that of the population. Achieving population
80 percent by mid-April. On April 27, ing the focus of the crisis in long-term Walz has sought advice beyond a small immunity will reduce transmission and
before the media took notice of the is- care facilities, Commissioner Malcolm circle of supposed experts or his own protect all remaining uninfected persons,
sue, we asked Commissioner Malcolm: announced the “battle plan” on May 7. partisan colleagues. The lack of a critical including the vulnerable elderly. That
“Referring to the 286 total deaths to date, She summarized the plan in 15 Power- press has served him especially poorly in is the course on which we should have
(we note that) every decedent under Point slides. One can only wonder why this respect.  embarked and can still elect. It gets us to
age 70 has died in long-term care or a it came so late. And since the issuance of Minnesotans often feel a keen rivalry safety in a reasonable time, with far less
similar setting. The youngest person to the “battle plan,” long-term care facility with Wisconsin, a state with similar pop- economic devastation, adverse health
die outside long-term care was in his 70s. deaths have continued to represent around ulation size, composition and density. On effects, and other harms. And we need to
Why is it necessary to close the schools 80 percent of all deaths, week after week May 13, that state voided its shutdown reopen our economy as quickly as pos-
and shut down the state to protect the at- after week. This is an obvious failure that order. There was no uptick in cases or sible if we will have any reasonable hope
risk population?”  rests largely with the Governor.  deaths. In fact, throughout the epidemic, of reversing the considerable damage that
Malcolm responded through Depart- On May 19, well after deaths in Wisconsin has had fewer cases and has already been done.

40 SUMMER 2020 THINKING MINNESOTA THINKING MINNESOTA SUMMER 2020 41