PSI Software

Sponsored Research Update

9 April 2020

Resilience has its price

After strong 2019 results that saw a further increasing share of
“product” business, we think PSI is in good shape to combat the
crisis. Although we see still see some 20% upside to the fair value Target price (EUR) 21
and stick to our “Buy” recommendation, the PSI share is no deep Share price (EUR) 17

value call anymore after a strong outperformance of the TecDAX in

recent weeks. Forecast changes
% 2020e 2021e 2022e

Revenues (2) (0) NM

In good shape to weather the crisis EBITDA 2 17 NM
EBIT adj (26) (6) NM
Based on a full order book, a healthy balance sheet and products that EPS reported (19) 5 NM
are essential for many customers to operate, we think PSI is well EPS adj (19) 5 NM
prepared to weather the coronavirus pandemic. On top of that PSI Source: Pareto
has additional means to counterbalance a drop of revenues if the
crisis escalates further. Ticker PSAGN.DE, PSAN GY
Sector Software & Services
Shares fully diluted (m) 15.7
Sound 2019 numbers
Market cap (EURm) 269
PSI reported sound 2019 numbers in March and the revenue target Net debt (EURm) 4
of EUR 220m and the EBIT guidance of “almost EUR 17m” were Minority interests (EURm) 0
surpassed. Moreover, PSI made good progress in 2019 regarding the Enterprise value 20e (EURm) 273
Free float (%) 39
increasing share of “product” business, which rose from 52% to 56%.

Still undervalued but not super cheap anymore

Based on a DCF framework, we arrive at a price target of EUR 21, Performance
which translates into an upside of more than 20%. Nevertheless, PSI EUR

is no a deep value call at present valuation levels. In fact, it has

strongly outperformed the TecDAX since the beginning of the crisis 22

and currently trades at a premium of 18% to the index, which 20

compares with an average premium of ~3% over the last five years.
17

15

EURm 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 12

Revenues 199 225 225 237 247 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20

EBITDA 20 28 26 32 34 PSAGN.DE CDAX (Rebased)

EBIT 15 17 15 21 23 Source: Factset
EPS 0.68 0.91 0.80 1.12 1.24
EPS adj 0.68 0.91 0.80 1.12 1.24 Pareto Securities AS has been paid by the issuer to
DPS 0.25 0.05 0.30 0.41 0.46 produce this research report. This material is
considered by Pareto Securities to qualify as an
EV/EBITDA 12.7 12.2 10.4 8.3 7.4 acceptable minor non-monetary benefit according to
EV/EBIT 16.4 19.9 17.7 12.5 10.9 the EU MIFID 2 directive.
P/E adj 23.2 22.9 21.4 15.3 13.9
Analysts
P/B 2.83 3.45 2.53 2.26 2.04
Knud Hinkel
ROE (%) 12.7 15.7 12.5 15.6 15.5 +49 69 58997 419, knud.hinkel@paretosec.com
Div yield (%) 1.6 0.2 1.7 2.4 2.7
Net debt (43) (38) (51) (62) (73)

Source: Pareto
PSI Software
Spons ored Research Update

Please refer to important disclosures on the last 5 pages of this document

This report is generated for Harald Schrimpf
PSI Software Sponsored Research Update

Wrap-up of 2019 numbers

Exhibit 1: Overview 2019 numbers

Actual
PSI Software AG 2018 2019 yoy (%)
Revenues EURm 199 225 13.1

Energy Management " 103 119 15.9

Production Management " 108 119 10.3
Reconciliation " -12 -13 12.4

EBIT " 15.5 17.2 11%

margin % 7.8% 7.6% -12 BP

Energy Management EURm 6.8 7.2 6.4

Production Management " 10.0 11.8 17.6
Reconciliation " -1.3 -1.8 32.9

Order entry " 217 236 8.8

Order book " 139 142 2.2

Source: Pareto Securities Research

PSI reported sound 2019 numbers on the 24th of March. The revenue target of
EUR 220m and the EBIT guidance of “almost EUR 17m” were surpassed. Energy
Management (EM) could strongly expand revenues helped by the BTC
acquisition, which was consolidated since the beginning of year. In our
understanding, the main “asset” of this EUR 4m deal were the ~160 IT specialists
that became part of the PSI group. Because of the related integration costs of
EUR 2.1m, the earnings dynamic lagged revenue growth.

In contrast, Production Management (PM) could increase earnings over

proportionally. Once again, PSI demonstrated in 2019 that PM is not so much
dependent on the well-being of a certain industries in given geography but in
contrast is even able to capitalize on tectonic shifts in markets. For example, PSI
has been able to secure contracts from steel companies in USA, Russia and China
in PM while the European steel sector suffered from a deep crisis. Regarding the
automobile sector, constraints arising from the “diesel issue” were compensated
through PSI’s competence for swarm production for the EV production, that can
save the OEM up to 20% of time / costs. Similarly, PSI could capitalize on the
electrification of the German public bus transport.

Also, in EM, the decentralisation and volatility of power generation in Germany

and elsewhere arising from a higher share of renewable energy sources
represents a major opportunity rather than a challenge for PSI going forward.

The order entry increased by 9% in 2019 to EUR 236m. The order book
nevertheless stood at “only” EUR 142m at the end of 2019, because PSI books
the relevant share of multi-year maintenance contracts only at the beginning of
the fiscal year. Accordingly, the order book stood at EUR 182m at the end of
February 2020. Taking 2019 as a yardstick, this means that PSI’s “capacity” is
already almost fully booked for the remainder of the year: Dividing EUR 225m by
12 months results in a monthly “capacity” of EUR 18.75m. The order book of
EUR 182m divided by EUR 18.75m then equals 9.7 months.

PSI made progress in 2019 regarding the migration of its product offering to the
PSI Java platform, too. According to PSI, two thirds of products run on the
platform, which is huge step towards a higher degree of standardization. We

9 Apr 2020 Pareto Securities Research 2(14)

This report is generated for Harald Schrimpf
PSI Software Sponsored Research Update

understand that 100% of the PM business and one third of EM run on the
platform, so the migration of a higher share of EM business will be clearly the
focus in the future. PSI might be ahead of a breakthrough in this regard as it has
secured a 3-year contract from a Polish customer, active in managing gas
pipelines, which is supposed to make use of the platform. All in, PSI increase the
share of “product” compared to “project” business from 52% in 2018 to 56% in
2019. PSI interprets licenses, maintenance / upgrade, and cost-plus projects as
“product” business (see below).

Exhibit 2: Product mix evolution

Source: Pareto Securities Research

9 Apr 2020 Pareto Securities Research 3(14)

This report is generated for Harald Schrimpf
PSI Software Sponsored Research Update

Outlook
Full year 2020
As for many other companies, the impact from the coronavirus pandemic is hard
to assess at present. However, PSI was one of the few companies that already
provided an outlook for 2020 including COVID 19. PSI guided for a slight decrease
in revenues and a drop of operating earnings by 20%. Without corona, PSI had
expected a 10% rise in revenues. Even more insightful from an analytical point of
view was the fact that PSI’s management shared its thoughts on potential
negative but also positive repercussions of the crisis on the company.

Main negatives:

− Higher share of overdue receivables.

− Rising price pressure, especially for offers without a unique selling
proposition.
− Potentially tougher to close deals without personal interaction.

On top of that, the business in Malaysia and Russia might suffer from lower oil
price. With view to the strong existing order book, the “depth” of a crisis is less
of a concern for PSI. For PSI, it is more important that the crisis will be overcome
within one year or less.

Main positives:

− Rising awareness of PSI products on the customer side

− More “green” investment from government as part of a governmental
stimulus might increase demand for PSI products.
− Lower travelling costs.
− More M&A targets at better prices.
− Decreasing inflationary pressure on personnel costs.
− Higher degree of acceptance for digital solutions that are cheaper.
− Might increase degree of consolidation of supply side, especially as not
many competitors have a strong balance sheet such as PSI, which is
important to secure long-term contracts.

PSI spots potential M&A targets mainly in EM but does not feel under time
pressure in that regard.

Overall, as a company with Chinese operations, PSI was not as surprised as many
other companies by the outbreak of COVID 19 and took actions before the full
extent of the problem became visible. For instance, PSI declared a hiring freeze
at the end of February and already reduced the workforce in Malaysia. Also, PSI
will have some means to counterbalance a drop of revenues if the crisis escalates
further, i.e. by making use of early retirement and other measure to reduce
personnel cost. PSI believes it can reduce personnel cost of EUR 138m by
EUR 25m (18%) without incurring restructuring costs.

With view to order book and the line of reasoning reproduced above, we think it
is very conservative for the time being to expect a drop of operating earnings by
20% in 2020. We think that PSI will be able deliver a better result if things
normalize in the second half of 2020, which is our core scenario for the time
being. Thus, we expect a 10% drop of earnings for 2019 and V-shaped recovery
in 2021.

From this, we constructed the following P&L forecast below for the coming years:

9 Apr 2020 Pareto Securities Research 4(14)

This report is generated for Harald Schrimpf
PSI Software Sponsored Research Update

Exhibit 3: P&L forecast

Profit & Loss 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e

Revenue 176 175 184 177 186 199 225 225 237 247 255
% yoy -2.5% -0.5% 4.7% -3.7% 5.2% 7.0% 13.1% 0.0% 5.3% 4.0% 3.5%
EBITDA 8 12 15 16 18 20 28 26 32 34 36
% of sales 4.5% 6.6% 8.4% 9.1% 9.5% 10.1% 12.5% 11.7% 13.4% 13.7% 14.1%
EBIT 4 8 11 12 13 15 17 15 21 23 25
% of sales 2.4% 4.4% 6.0% 6.7% 7.2% 7.8% 7.6% 6.9% 8.9% 9.4% 9.9%
Pretax Profit 3 6 9 11 13 15 16 15 20 22 25
% of sales 1.7% 3.2% 5.1% 6.4% 6.7% 7.3% 7.3% 6.4% 8.5% 9.1% 9.6%
Net Profit 0 4 7 9 9 11 14 13 18 19 21
% of sales 0.2% 2.3% 4.1% 4.8% 5.1% 5.3% 6.3% 5.6% 7.4% 7.9% 8.4%
EPS 0.02 0.26 0.48 0.55 0.61 0.68 0.91 0.80 1.12 1.24 1.36
% yoy 1007.2% 82.3% 14.7% 10.9% 11.2% 34.8% -11.7% 39.6% 10.7% 9.7%
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.05 0.30 0.41 0.46 0.50
Payout ratio 0% 0% 44% 40% 38% 37% 5% 37% 37% 37% 37%

Source: Pareto Securities Research

Q1 2020
In line with the scenario described above, we expect a Q1 that is only slightly
impacted by the coronavirus.

Exhibit 4: Q1 estimates

Actual Pareto
PSI Software AG Q1 2019 Q1 2020e yoy (%)
Revenues EURm 52.0 52.8 1.6

Energy Management " 25.9 26.2 0.9

Production Management " 29.0 29.7 2.2
Reconciliation " -3.0 -3.0 1.1

EBIT " 3.0 2.7 -9.8

margin % 5.7% 5.0% -64 BP

Energy Management EURm 1.1 1.0 -9.2

Production Management " 1.9 1.7 -10.2
Reconciliation " -0.1 -0.1 -10.5

Source: Pareto Securities Research

9 Apr 2020 Pareto Securities Research 5(14)

This report is generated for Harald Schrimpf
PSI Software Sponsored Research Update

Valuation
Exhibit 5: DCF

Phase I Phase II Phase III

EUR m 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e

Revenues 225 237 247 255 263 271 279 287 296 305
growth rate 0.0% 5.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
EBIT 15.5 21.1 23.1 25.2 26.5 27.3 28.2 29.0 29.9 30.8
EBIT margin 6.9% 8.9% 9.4% 9.9% 10.1% 10.1% 10.1% 10.1% 10.1% 10.1%
Tax (2.0) (2.8) (3.1) (3.3) (3.5) (3.6) (3.7) (8.0) (8.3) (8.5)
Tax rate 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 28% 28% 28%
Depr. & Amort. 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4
% of sales 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4%
Capex (4.3) (4.3) (4.4) (4.6) (4.7) (4.5) (4.4) (4.4) (4.5) (4.6)
% of sales 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Change in WC 0.0 (2.9) (2.3) (2.1) (1.9) (1.9) (2.0) (2.0) (2.1) (2.2)
% of sales 0.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Free Cash Flow 14.7 16.4 18.3 20.0 21.2 21.7 22.3 18.8 19.3 19.9 469
growth rate nm 11.1% 11.8% 9.2% 6.1% 2.4% 2.7% -15.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0%
Present Value FCF 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.3 15.2 14.5 13.8 10.8 10.4 9.9 235

PV Phase I 74 Risk free rate 3.5% Targ. equity ratio 85%

PV Phase II 59 Premium Equity 5.0% Beta 0.9
PV Phase III 235 Premium Debt 0.5% WACC 7.4%

Enterprise value 369 Sensitivity Growth in phase III

- Net Debt (Cash) (38) 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
- Pension Provisions 55 6.6% 21.3 23.2 25.6 28.8 33.2
- Minorities & Peripherals 0 7.0% 19.6 21.1 23.1 25.6 29.0
- Leasing Liabilities 23 WACC 7.4% 18.1 19.4 21.0 23.0 25.7
- Paid-out dividends for last FY 0 7.7% 16.8 17.9 19.2 20.9 23.0
+/- Other EV items 0 8.1% 15.7 16.6 17.7 19.1 20.8

Equity value 329

Number of shares (m) 15.7
Value per share (€) 21.0
Current Price (€) 17.1
Upside 23%

Source: Pareto Securities Research

Due to the first-time application of IFRS 16, the company has recognized
EUR 22.1m right of use assets and a corresponding liability of EUR 22.5m on the
2019 balance sheet. Also, the depreciation for 2019 included an amount of
EUR 5.2m referring to right of use assets. Interest payments on recognized lease
liabilities will not be reported any more as operational expenses but as part of
the financial result in 2019.

For valuation purposes, we will only add back depreciation to EBIT in our DCF
framework that do not refer to rights of use assets. Correspondingly, we will only
deduct capex for fixed assets other than right of use assets from free cash flow.
We will however account for the move of the interest component of the leasing
arrangements into the financial result by deducting the leasing liabilities from the
enterprise value from now on, treating them in analogy to interest bearing net
debt and pension liabilities.

The tax rate was at 13% in 2019 because PSI has a substantial tax loss carry
forward at its disposal, which can be used for another 7-8 years, we believe. After
that period, we expect the tax rate to go up to 28.8%.

9 Apr 2020 Pareto Securities Research 6(14)

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PSI Software Sponsored Research Update

The pension provision is up yoy as the discount factor is down from 1.7% to 0.9%
in Germany and from 1.8% to 0.5% in Austria. From these levels, we don’t see a
lot of downside risk remaining.

All in, we stick to our price target of EUR 21, which translates into an upside of
23%. The recommendation remains “Buy”.

Exhibit 6: Historical 12m forward PE

PE Share price
26
29
24
27
22
25
20
23
18
21 16
19 14
17 12
15 10
Oct-15

Oct-18

Oct-19
Oct-16

Oct-17
Jul-15

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20
Jan-16
Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
PE - NTM (lhs) Average PE Share Price (rhs)

Source: Pareto Securities Research, Factset

Nevertheless, PSI is no deep value call at present valuation levels. In fact, it has
strongly outperformed the TecDAX since the beginning of the crisis and currently
trades at a premium of 18% to the index, which compares with an average
premium of ~3% over the last five years. PSI is not a member of the TecDAX at
present, but as there is no close peer group available because of PSI’s unique set-
up, we think the index serves very well as a benchmark for PSI.

Exhibit 7: Historical PE premium over the TecDAX

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%
Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19
Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20
Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

PE - Premium / Discount PSI vs. TECDAX Average

Source: Pareto Securities Research, Factset

The significance of PSI products for the reduction of emissions in production

processes, the management of EV vehicle fleets in public transport and the
management of decentralized electric production grids makes PSI an interesting
choice for ESG-conscious investors, which could in the longer run justify a certain
valuation premium, though.

9 Apr 2020 Pareto Securities Research 7(14)

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PSI Software Sponsored Research Update

At a glance
Exhibit 8: At a glance
Business Units Energy Management Production Management

Software solutions to control and manage flows for utilities, powered by PSI's proprietary algorithm that Software products and tailored solutions for production planning, namely production control and logistics,
solves resource allocation and cost minimisation problems. supported by PSI's patented algorithm that optimises resources.
Products/
Examples of product portfolio include: PSIcontrol (Control system for managing electricity grids); PSIganesi Some examples of product offering include: PSImining (Instrumentation and control of the production
applications
(Network simulation system for the gas market); PSImarket (Energy trading and sales system); PSIairport supervision of mines); PSImetals (solution for the entire value added chain in the metals industry); PSIglobal
(Solutions for passenger, baggage and air cargo processing) (Planning, analysis and optimisation of logistics networks)

For Energy Management, clients served operate in: gas, oil, electricity, heating, energy trading and public transportation industries.
For Production Management, the client base is comprised by: raw material extraction, metal production, automotive, mechanical engineering and logistics industries.
Customers
Important individual customers are DB and public city transport ("S-Bahnen"), Gazprom, E.on. and innogy.
Limited cluster risk: No customer stands for more than 5% revenue share, 3-4% are already high levels.

90-100% market share in energy management Germany.

Market share/ 30% market share in steel: No. 1 globally.
positioning One of the few pure plays in the industry.
Clients are spread across various industries, which to a certain degree mitigates exposure to cyclical downturns in certain industries.

Rising emphasis on renewables increases requirements for grid management, but PSI can also capitalize on other aspects of changes in emission policy like decarbonisation of steel.
Electrification of car fleet will results in increased energy consumption from private and public households. Electrification of bus pool.
Drivers
Profitability of customer industries plays a role, as very bad and very good customer profitability is not supportive to do business.
Seasonality in Electricity Management (particularly in Q4) which is offset by PSI serving different customer industries.

Main
Competitor are mostly sub-divisions of larger conglomerates such as Navitec, Siemens, Schneider Electric, ABB. Exceptions are verticals like Automotive and Logistics.
competitors

Entry barriers/ Sunk costs in the software business. Spending of certain industries/regions in Software
competitive PSI has over 50 years of experience, resulting in a high degree of vertical and technology know-how. PSI Software edge comes from having a well-established industry footprint, thanks to its long-standing customer relations
advantage and solutions' reputation.

Strategy: Guidance (23/03/2020): Pareto Estimates Consensus

(I) Transformation from an IT services to a software company through modularisation of solutions. Revenue: slight decrease Revenue: EUR 225m EUR 219m
(II) Onshore and near shore (Poland) as main pillars of personnel sourcing. y/y 0.0% -2.6%
Strategy &
(III) Expansion abroad, shifting from raw-material-producing countries to industrialised consumer countries EBIT -20.0% EBIT EUR 15.5m EUR 17.2m
Guidance
such as Northern and Central Europe and North America. margin 6.9% 7.9%
(IV) Capitalising on megatrends such as electric mobility, renewables, consolidation of grid operators in
Germany, etc.
Sales (EURm) 225.2 EBITDA (EURm) 28.0 EBIT adj. (EURm) 17.2 Sales 5Y hist. CAGR 5.1%
2019
y/y 13.1% Margin 12.5% Margin 7.6%

Sales split by region Sales split by division EBIT split by region Group financial development

300 8.9% 9.4% 10.0%

7.8% 7.6% 9.0%
250 7.2% 8.0%
6.9%
5%1% Germany 7.0%
200
9% 6.0%
Western Europe Energy Energy
38% 150 5.0%
Sales & EBIT 9% Management Management 4.0%
China, Southeast
Split 100 3.0%
Asia, Pacific 50% 50%
59% Russia, East 50 2.0%
17% Production 62% Production
Europe 1.0%
Management Management
Americas 0 0.0%

Middle East

Production Management Energy Management

EBIT margin

CEO Dr. Harald Schrimpf CFO Harald Fuchs Shareholder structure

CEO (since 2013) CFO (since 2013)
TGV
• Dr. Harald Schrimpf has been an equal member of the two- • Harald Fuchs became a member of PSI Software AG's executive
member PSI Executive Board since July 2002 and has been board in July 2013 21% E.ON
Chairman of the Executive Board since July 2013 • He has been active as the Head of Finances and Controlling in
Shareholder • From 1995 until joining PSI Software AG, Dr. Schrimpf was the business unit Electrical Energy of PSI Software AG since 2011 39% PSI ESOP
structure & responsible for major IT projects in various management positions • Prior to that he held a number of senior commercial positions in
management at Daimler, Chrysler, EADS and Volkswagen's subsidiary Gedas the RWE, Continental and Alpine Energy Group within Germany, Singh Harvinder
18%
• He studied electrical engineering at the RWTH Aachen the USA and Austria
University, graduating as an engineer and subsequently • Harald Fuchs studied business management in Germany, UK BW
5% Versorgungsanstalt
completing his doctorate in technical computer science and US 9%
8% Free Float

# of employees
1,984
FY 2019

Source: Pareto Securities Research

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PSI Software Sponsored Research Update

PROFIT & LOSS (fiscal year) (EURm) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e
Revenues 184 177 186 199 225 225 237 247
EBITDA 15 16 18 20 28 26 32 34
Depreciation & amortisation (4) (4) (4) (5) (11) (11) (11) (11)
EBIT 11 12 13 15 17 15 21 23
Net interest (2) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)
Other financial items - - - - - - - -
Profit before taxes 9 11 13 15 16 15 20 22
Taxes (2) (3) (3) (4) (2) (2) (3) (3)
Minority interest - - - - - - - -
Net profit 7 9 9 11 14 13 18 19
EPS reported 0.48 0.55 0.61 0.68 0.91 0.80 1.12 1.24
EPS adjusted 0.48 0.55 0.65 0.68 0.91 0.80 1.12 1.24
DPS 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.05 0.30 0.41 0.46

BALANCE SHEET (EURm) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e
Tangible non current assets 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 15
Other non-current assets 96 96 90 94 106 104 106 107
Other current assets 53 48 54 57 90 90 92 94
Cash & equivalents 39 43 38 45 39 52 63 74
Total assets 200 199 194 209 249 261 275 290
Total equity 73 75 80 87 95 106 119 132
Interest-bearing non-current debt 0 - - - - - - -
Interest-bearing current debt 3 - 3 2 1 1 1 1
Other Debt 76 72 61 69 98 98 100 102
Total liabilites & equity 200 199 194 209 249 261 275 290

CASH FLOW (EURm) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e
Cash earnings 11 14 12 19 23 18 23 24
Change in working capital 3 (1) (11) 0 (11) - (3) (2)
Cash flow from investments (2) (3) (4) (7) (9) (4) (4) (4)
Cash flow from financing (2) (7) (1) (5) (10) (1) (5) (6)
Net cash flow 10 4 (5) 6 (7) 13 11 11

CAPITALIZATION & VALUATION (EURm) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e
Share price (EUR end) 12.9 12.2 18.5 15.7 20.8 17.2 17.2 17.2
Number of shares end period 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
Net interest bearing debt (35) (43) (36) (43) (38) (51) (62) (73)
Enterprise value 214 201 306 254 343 273 262 251
EV/Sales 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA 13.9 12.4 17.2 12.7 12.2 10.4 8.3 7.4
EV/EBIT 19.3 16.9 22.9 16.4 19.9 17.7 12.5 10.9
P/E reported 27.0 22.3 30.5 23.2 22.9 21.4 15.3 13.9
P/E adjusted 27.0 22.3 28.4 23.2 22.9 21.4 15.3 13.9
P/B 2.8 2.5 3.6 2.8 3.4 2.5 2.3 2.0

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS & CREDIT METRICS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e
ROE adjusted (%) 11.5 13.1 12.7 15.7 12.5 15.6 15.5
Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.6 0.2 1.7 2.4 2.7
EBITDA margin (%) 8.4 9.1 9.5 10.1 12.5 11.7 13.4 13.7
EBIT margin (%) 6.0 6.7 7.2 7.8 7.6 6.9 8.9 9.4
NIBD/EBITDA (2.30) (2.67) (2.00) (2.13) (1.34) (1.93) (1.94) (2.16)
EBITDA/Net interest 8.50 21.53 19.04 18.91 26.71 21.11 28.58 33.73

9 Apr 2020 Pareto Securities Research 9(14)

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no. 3994976, (United Kingdom) (together the Group Companies or the “Pareto Securities Group”) acting through their common un it Pareto Securities Research. The Group Companies are supervised by
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Canadian recipients of this research report are advised that this research report is not, and under no circumstances is it to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of or an offer to buy any securities
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construed as being tailored to the needs of the recipient. Canadian recipients are advised that Pareto Securities AS, its affiliates and its authorized agents are not responsible for, nor do they accept, any
liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this research report or the information contained herein.

Distribution in United Kingdom

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This publication or report may not be mechanically duplicated, photocopied or otherwise reproduced, in full or in part, under applicable copyright laws. Any infringement of Pareto Securities Research´s
copyright can be pursued legally whereby the infringer will be held liable for any and all losses and expenses incurred by the infringement.

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Appendix A
Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulations section 3 -10 (2) and section 3-11 (1), letters a-b

The below list shows companies where Pareto Securities AS - together with affiliated companies and/or persons – own a portion of the shares exceeding 5 % of the total share capital in any company
where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities AS.

C o m pa nie s N o . o f s ha re s H o ldings in % C o m pa nie s N o . o f s ha re s H o ldings in %

Helgeland Sparebank 2,010,630 9.63% SpareB ank 1Østfo ld A kershus 1,140,010 9.20%
P areto B ank A SA 14,902,985 21.34% Sparebanken Vest 6,111,796 5.69%

Pareto Securities AS or its affiliates own as determined in accordance with Section 13(d) of the US Exchange Act, 1 % or moreof the equity securities of :

C o m pa nie s N o . o f s ha re s H o ldings in % C o m pa nie s N o . o f s ha re s H o ldings in %

Helgeland Sparebank 2,010,630 9.63% SpareB ank 1SM N 1,885,567 1.45%
P areto B ank A SA 14,902,985 21.34% SpareB ank 1Østfo ld A kershus 1,140,010 9.20%
Selvaag B o lig A SA 2,171,147 2.32% Sparebanken M øre 305,239 3.09%
SpareB ank 1B V 1,655,920 2.63% Sparebanken Sør 433,149 2.77%
SpareB ank 1No rd-No rge 3,246,880 3.23% Sparebanken Vest 6,111,796 5.69%

Pareto Securities AS may hold financial instruments in companies where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities AS in connection with rendering investment services,
including Market Making.

Please find below an overview of material interests in shares held by employees in Pareto Securities AS, in companies where arecommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities AS. "By
material interest" means holdings exceeding a value of NOK 50 000.

A na lys t T o tal A na lys t T o tal A na lys t T o tal

C o m pa ny ho ldings * ho ldings C o m pa ny ho ldings * ho ldings C o m pa ny ho ldings * ho ldings
A F Gruppen 0 18,535 Helgeland Sparebank 0 4,127 Schibsted A SA B A ksjer 0 597
A ker 0 791 Ice Gro up 0 96,891 Seadrill 0 8,689
A ker B P 0 14,269 Jæren Sparebank 0 500 Selvaag B o lig 0 2,000
A merican Shipping Co mpany 0 3,500 Ko mplett B ank 0 104,079 SpareB ank 1B V 0 22,700
A tlantic Sapphire 0 1,105 Ko ngsberg Gruppen 0 34,118 SpareB ank 1No rd-No rge 0 27,325
A vance Gas 0 4,580 KWS 75 75 SpareB ank 1Ringerike Hadeland 0 500
A xacto r 0 8,709 Lerøy Seafo o d 0 2,050 SpareB ank 1SM N 0 22,865
B A SF 270 270 M o wi 0 1,904 SpareB ank 1SR-B ank 0 30,040
B o nheur 0 46,615 No rdic Semico nducto r 0 6,000 Sparebank 1Østfo ld A kershus 0 450
B RA B ank 0 1,371,000 No rsk Hydro 0 96,736 SpareB ank 1Østlandet 0 2,161
DNB 0 29,705 No rwegian A ir Shuttle 0 49,491 Sparebanken Sør 0 15,840
DNO 0 457,388 Ocean Yield 0 39,037 Sparebanken Vest 0 5,869
DNO B ull ETN 0 7,000 Okeanis Eco Tankers 0 2,728 Sparebanken Øst 0 1,500
Entra 0 8,837 Orkla 0 18,644 Sto lt-Nielsen 0 42,426
Equino r 0 5,002 P areto B ank 0 1,279,375 Sto rebrand 0 6,165
Euro pris 0 14,750 P GS 0 11,656 Subsea 7 0 1,139
Fjo rd1 0 50,000 P io neer P ro perty 0 2,050 Teleno r 0 2,731
Fjo rdkraft Ho lding 0 8,000 P ro tecto r Fo rsikring 0 14,785 TGS-NOP EC 0 2,000
Fro ntline 0 11,730 REC Silico n 0 32,708 VOW A SA 0 4,781
Gjensidige Fo rsikring 0 7,280 SalM ar 0 200 XXL 0 9,279
Go lden Ocean Gro up 0 1,744 Sandnes Sparebank 0 27,532 Yara Internatio nal 0 14,253
Grieg Seafo o d 0 770 Scatec So lar 0 35,000 Zenterio 0 78,865
Hafnia Limited 0 10,000

This overview is updated monthly (last updated 17.03.2020).

*Analyst holdings ref ers t o posit ions held by t he Paret o Securit ies AS analyst covering t he company.

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Appendix B
Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation § 3-11, letters e-f, ref the Securities Trading Act Section 3-10

Overview over issuers of financial instruments where Pareto Securities AS have prepared or distributed investment recommendation, where Pareto Securities AS have been lead manager/co-lead manager
or have rendered publicly known not immaterial investment banking services over the previous 12 months:

2020Bulkers GG. St . Kongensgade 100 og 106 Ocean Yield

Advanzia Bank Haf nia Limit ed Odf jell SE

Af rica Energy Haf slund E-CO OKEA

Af rican Pet roleum Corporat ion Hunt er Group ASA Ot iga Group

Agder Energi Hörmann Indust ries Paret o Bank

Aker ASA Ice Group Pet roleum Geo-Services

American Tanker ICW Holding Pet roTal

Belships Kingf ish Zeeland Pinewood Laborat ories

BRAbank Klaveness Combinat ion Carriers ASA Pioneer Propert y Group

BW Energi Lif eFit Providences Inv. Mngmt Pt y

Cabonline Group Holding AB Luxaviat ion Holding Quest erre Energy

Cent ralNic Group Monobank ASA Sandnes Sparebank

DNO Mut ares SE & Co. KGaA Seadrill

Erwe Immobilien Navig8 Shamaran Pet roleum

Euromicron AG Navigat or Holdings Sparebanken Vest

Exmar NV Norbit ASA St olt Nilsen

Filo Mining Corp Nort hern Ocean TEMPTON Dienst leist ungen

Flex LNG Norwegian Air Shut t le Unit ed Camping AB

Float el Nouveau Monde Graphit e Vant age Drilling

Genel Energy

This overview is updated monthly (this overview is for the period 28.02.2019 – 29.02.2020).

Appendix C
Disclo sure requirements pursuant to the No rwegian Securities Trading Regulatio n § 3-11(4)

D ist r ib ut io n o f r eco mmend at io ns

R eco mmend at io n % d ist r ib ut io n

Buy 56%

Hold 39%

Sell 5%

D ist r ib ut io n o f r eco mmend at io ns ( t r ansact io ns* )

R eco mmend at io n % d ist r ib ut io n

Buy 87%
Hold 13%

Sell 0%

* Companies under coverage with which Pareto Securities Group has on-going or completed public investment banking services in the previous 12 months

This overview is updated monthly (last updated 17.03.2020).

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Appendix D
This section applies to research reports prepared by Pareto Securities AB.

Disclosure of positions in financial instruments

The beneficial holding of the Pareto Group is 1 % or more of the total share capital of the following companies included in P areto Securities AB’s research coverage universe: None

The Pareto Group has material holdings of other financial instruments than shares issued by the following companies included in Pareto Securities AB’s research coverage universe: None

Disclosure of assignments and mandates

Overview over issuers of financial instruments where Pareto Securities AB has prepared or distributed investment recommendation, where Pareto Securities AB has been lead manager or co -lead manager
or has rendered publicly known not immaterial investment banking services over the previous twelve months:

Azelio Green Landscaping Holding M entice AB Sedana M edical

Bionvent IRRAS AB Pledpharma AB ShaM aran Petroleum

Climeon Jetpak Top Holding AB QleanAir Holding

Members of the Pareto Group provide market making or other liquidity providing services to the following companies included i n Pareto Securities AB’s research coverage universe:

ByggPartner i Dalarna Holding M agnolia Bostad Sedana M edical Tethys Oil

Cibus Nordic Real Estate Saltängen Property Invest ShaM aran Petroleum Vostok Emerging Finance
Isofol M edical SciBase Holding

Members of the Pareto Group have entered into agreements concerning the inclusion of the company in question in Pareto Securities AB’s research coverage universe with the following companies: None

M ember o f the P areto Gro up is pro viding B usiness M anagement services to the fo llo wing co mpanies:
Bosjö Fastigheter AB Bråviken Logistik Halmslätten M älaråsen
Bonäsudden Delarka Logistri Sydsvenska Hem
Members of the Pareto Group have entered into agreements concerning the inclusion of the company in question in Pareto Securities AB’s research coverage universe with the following companies: None
This overview is updated monthly (last updated 17.03.2020).

Appendix E
Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation § 3-11, letter d, ref the Securities Trading Act Section 3-10

Designated Sponsor
Pareto Securities acts as a designated sponsor for the following companies, including the provision of bid and ask offers. Th erefore, we regularly possess shares of the company in our proprietary trading
books. Pareto Securities receives a commission from the company for the provision of the designated sponsor services.

2G Energy * Gigaset * M LP * SCOUT24

Baywa Heidelberg Pharma * M OBOTIX AG Siemens Healthineers AG

Biotest * Hypoport AG mutares SM T Scharf AG *

Brenntag Intershop Communications AG OVB Holding AG Surteco Group *

CORESTATE Capital Holding S.A. ISRA Vision Procredit Holding * Syzygy AG *

Daldrup & Söhne Leifheit PSI SOFTWARE AG * TAKKT AG

Demire Logwin * PWO * Vapiano

Epigenomics AG* M anz AG * RIB Software * va-Q-tec *

Gesco * M AX Automation SE S&T AG * Viscom *

GFT Technologies * M erkur Bank Schaltbau Holding AG *

* The designated sponsor services include a contractually agreed provision of research services.

Appendix F
Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulation § 3-11, letter g, ref the Securities Trading Act Section 3-10

Sponsored Research
Pareto Securities has entered into an agreement with these companies about the preparation of research reports and– in return - receives compensation.

Adler M odemaerkte Daldrup & Söhne Intershop Communications AG mutares

Baywa Dermapharm Holding SE Leifheit OHB SE

BB Biotech First Sensor M AX Automation SE OVB Holding AG

B.R.A.I.N. Godewind Immobilien AG M erkur Bank Siegfried Holding AG

comdirect Hypoport AG M OBOTIX AG Vapiano

This overview is updated monthly (last updated 17.03.2020).

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