Carne

Proporción CANTIDADES
Periodo
estadistica + fuente Mes por DEMANDADAS Periodo
movil N=3
demanda EN TONS

Jan-15 0.0577 2855

Feb-15 0.1205 5961
Mar-15 0.0374 1847
Apr-15 0.0917 4534
May-15 0.0475 2351
Para el año 2015 se produjo
942000 toneladas de carne. Jun-15 0.0255 1259
https://www.fedegan.org.co/e Jul-15 0.1426 7053
stadisticas/produccion-0
Aug-15 0.0679 3359
Sep-15 0.0594 2939
Oct-15 0.1409 6969
Nov-15 0.0781 3862
Dec-15 0.1307 6465
Jan-16 0.1257 6004 1 5766
Feb-16 0.1115 5327 2 5444
Mar-16 0.0248 1184 3 5932
Apr-16 0.0637 3044 4 4172
May-16 0.1735 8287 5 3185
Para el año 2016 se produjo
910052 toneladas de carne. Jun-16 0.0354 1691 6 4172
https://www.fedegan.org.co/e Jul-16 0.1611 7695 7 4341
stadisticas/produccion-0
Aug-16 0.0354 1691 8 5891
Sep-16 0.0637 3044 9 3693
Oct-16 0.0973 4651 10 4144
Nov-16 0.0513 2452 11 3129
Dec-16 0.0566 2706 12 3382
Jan-17 0.0447 2127 13 3270
Feb-17 0.0592 2813 14 2428
Mar-17 0.0216 1029 15 2549
Apr-17 0.0981 4665 16 1990
May-17 0.1443 6860 17 2836
Para el año 2017 se produjo
905582 toneladas de carne. Jun-17 0.1025 4871 18 4185
https://www.fedegan.org.co/e Jul-17 0.1342 6380 19 5466
stadisticas/produccion-0 ,
Aug-17 0.1414 6723 20 6037
Sep-17 0.0505 2401 21 5991
Oct-17 0.0924 4391 22 5168
Nov-17 0.0433 2058 23 4505
 Dec-17 0.0678 3224 24 2950
Jan-18 0.0305 1495 25 3224
Feb-18 0.0962 4724 26 2259
Mar-18 0.0560 2750 27 3148
Apr-18 0.1145 5620 28 2990
May-18 0.1194 5860 29 4365
Para el año 2018 se produjo
935025 toneladas de carne. Jun-18 0.1108 5441 30 4743
https://www.fedegan.org.co/e Jul-18 0.0195 957 31 5640
stadisticas/produccion-0 Aug-18 0.0999 4903 32 4086
Sep-18 0.1121 5501 33 3767
Oct-18 0.1206 5919 34 3787
Nov-18 0.0341 1674 35 5441
Dec-18 0.0865 4245 36 4365
Jan-19 4001.73 37 3946
Feb-19 38 3946
Mar-19 39 3946
Apr-19 40 3946
May-19 41 3946
Jun-19 42 3946
Jul-19 43 3946
Aug-19 44 3946
Sep-19 45 3946
Oct-19 46 3946
Nov-19 47 3946
Dec-19 48 3946
W1= 0.1
W2= 0.4 alfa= 0.25
W3= 0.5 ft
dt
suavizacion t (periodo (demanda
Promedio de tiempo) del periodo Periodo
Periodo Periodo Exponencial
Ponderado de tiempo) movil N=3
simple

1 2854.78778
2 5961.46859
3 1847.21562
4 4534.0747
5 2351.0017
6 1259.4652
7 7053.00509
8 3358.57385
9 2938.75212
10 6969.04075
11 3862.35993
4011 12 6465.25467
1 5474.475382 1 4624.85 13 6003.92713 5766
2 5974.3014272 2 4969.62 14 5327.4283 5444
3 5711.8104704 3 5059.07 15 1183.87296 5932
4 3323.3005115 4 4090.27 16 3044.24474 4172
5 2528.4143841 5 3828.76 17 8287.11069 3185
6 5479.6405381 6 4943.35 18 1691.24708 4172
7 4464.8922903 7 4130.32 19 7695.17421 4341
8 5352.7970071 8 5021.54 20 1691.24708 5891
9 4092.8179327 9 4188.96 21 3044.24474 3693
10 2968.1386248 10 3902.78 22 4650.92947 4144
11 3712.2873398 11 4089.82 23 2452.30827 3129
12 3390.9503947 12 3680.44 24 2705.99533 3382
13 2799.0139168 13 3436.83 25 2126.74561 3270
14 2391.0017606 14 3109.31 26 2812.79258 2428
15 2527.694063 15 3035.18 27 1029.07045 2549
16 1852.3268182 16 2533.65 28 4665.11939 1990
17 3025.4671364 17 3066.52 29 6860.4697 2836
18 5399.1896515 18 4015.01 30 4870.93348 4185
19 5646.1665606 19 4228.99 31 6380.23682 5466
20 5824.5387727 20 4766.80 32 6723.2603 6037
21 6400.8182273 21 5255.92 33 2401.16439 5991
22 4527.91 22 4542.23 34 4390.70061 5168
23 3828.1420909 23 4504.35 35 2058.14091 4505
24 3025.4671364 24 3892.79 36 3224.42076 2950
25 2874.536803 25 3725.70 37 1494.78723 3224
26 2242.9760069 26 3167.97 38 4723.52763 2259
27 3282.1207831 27 3556.86 39 2750.4085 3148
28 3414.0940241 28 3355.25 40 5620.39997 2990
29 4382.7161465 29 3921.54 41 5859.56593 4365
30 5452.9838002 30 4406.04 42 5441.0255 4743
31 5626.3791185 31 4664.79 43 956.663825 5640
32 3240.6987058 32 3737.76 44 4902.9021 4086
33 3378.2191306 33 4029.04 45 5500.81699 3767
34 4807.2357186 34 4396.99 46 5919.35741 3787
35 5650.2957141 35 4777.58 47 1674.16169 5441
36 3754.9055116 36 4001.73 48 4245.19572 4365
37 3384.1982795 37 4062.59 4001.7252
38 3384.1982795 38 4062.59
39 3384.1982795 39 4062.59
40 3384.1982795 40 4062.59
41 3384.1982795 41 4062.59
42 3384.1982795 42 4062.59
43 3384.1982795 43 4062.59
44 3384.1982795 44 4062.59
45 3384.1982795 45 4062.59
46 3384.1982795 46 4062.59
47 3384.1982795 47 4062.59
48 3384.1982795 48 4062.59
 COMPARATIVO DE ERRORES
ft et (ERROR MEDIO) letl

suavizacion suavizacion suavizacion

Promedio Periodo Promedio Periodo Promedio
Exponencial Exponencial Exponencial
Ponderado movil N=3 Ponderado movil N=3 Ponderado
simple simple simple

5474 4625 -238 -529 -1379.08018426 238.37535 529.451751 1379.08018

5974 4970 116 647 -357.811306337 116.418944 646.873126 357.811306
5712 5059 4748 4528 3875.19686538 4748.33041 4527.93751 3875.19687
3323 4090 1127 279 1046.025861424 1127.49805 279.055768 1046.02586
2528 3829 -5102 -5759 -4458.34655083 5101.92869 5758.69631 4458.34655
5480 4943 2480 3788 3252.103697494 2480.49572 3788.39346 3252.1037
4465 4130 -3354 -3230 -3564.84935962 3354.30671 3230.28192 3564.84936
5353 5022 4200 3662 3330.290113026 4199.93025 3661.54993 3330.29011
4093 4189 648 1049 1144.719921053 648.311381 1048.57319 1144.71992
2968 3903 -507 -1683 -748.144784874 507.374124 1682.79084 748.144785
3712 4090 676 1260 1637.512614884 676.498832 1259.97907 1637.51261
3391 3680 676 685 974.4473992162 676.498832 684.955067 974.447399
2799 3437 1143 672 1310.085270785 1142.99875 672.268311 1310.08527
2391 3109 -384 -422 296.5169833919 384.442843 421.790815 296.516983
2528 3035 1519 1499 2006.109858756 1519.44072 1498.62361 2006.10986
1852 2534 -2676 -2813 -2131.46654533 2675.58318 2812.79258 2131.46655
3025 3067 -4025 -3835 -3793.95021203 4024.80889 3835.00256 3793.95021
5399 4015 -686 528 -855.926446898 686.04697 528.256167 855.926447
5646 4229 -915 -734 -2151.24816851 914.729293 734.070258 2151.24817
5825 4767 -686 -899 -1956.45961123 686.04697 898.72153 1956.45961
6401 5256 3590 4000 2854.75120067 3590.31247 3999.65383 2854.7512
4528 4542 778 137 151.5271883809 777.519899 137.209394 151.527188
3828 4504 2447 1770 2446.205088255 2446.90086 1770.00118 2446.20509
3025 3893 -274 -199 668.3739677067 274.418788 198.953621 668.373968
2875 3726 1730 1380 2230.914007412 1729.63353 1379.74958 2230.91401
2243 3168 -2464 -2481 -1555.55490248 2464.41134 2480.55163 1555.5549
3282 3557 397 532 806.4529613859 397.170043 531.712287 806.452961
3414 3355 -2631 -2206 -2265.15175277 2630.82552 2206.30595 2265.15175
4383 3922 -1495 -1477 -1938.02977073 1494.78723 1476.84978 1938.02977
5453 4406 -698 12 -1034.98190478 697.567372 11.9582978 1034.9819
5626 4665 4684 4670 3708.125249244 4683.66664 4669.71529 3708.12525
3241 3738 -817 -1662 -1165.14433956 817.15035 1662.2034 1165.14434
3378 4029 -1734 -2123 -1471.77314505 1733.95318 2122.59786 1471.77315
4807 4397 -2133 -1112 -1522.37028205 2132.56311 1112.1217 1522.37028
5650 4778 3767 3976 3103.418010144 3766.86381 3976.13402 3103.41801
3755 4002 120 -490 -243.470521016 119.582978 490.29021 243.470521
111.909784 94.9757333 62.4726797 1824.09 1853.50199 1873.23711
según Los resultados presentados el prono
Cantidades demandadas de carne

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
Jun-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17
CANTIDADES DEMANDADAS EN TONS Linear (CANTIDADES
 MAD MAD
1824.0942 1853.5020
DE ERRORES
DESVIACION ESTANDAR DEL ERROR
e^2 t letI / dt
1ER METODO

suavizacion suavizacion
Periodo Promedio Periodo Promedio Periodo movil Promedio
Exponencial Exponencial
movil N=3 Ponderado movil N=3 Ponderado N=3 Ponderado
simple simple

56822.8075 280319.156 1901862.15 0.040 0.088 0.22969636 - -

13553.3705 418444.841 128028.931 0.022 0.121 0.06716398 - -
22546641.7 20502218.1 15017150.7 4.011 3.825 3.27332156 - -
1271251.86 77872.1217 1094170.1 0.370 0.092 0.34360768 - -
26029676.4 33162583.1 19876854 0.616 0.695 0.53798564 - -
6152859 14351925 10576178.5 1.467 2.240 1.92290277 - -
11251373.5 10434721.3 12708151 0.436 0.420 0.46325778 - -
17639414.1 13406947.9 11090832.2 2.483 2.165 1.96913281 - -
420307.646 1099505.73 1310383.7 0.213 0.344 0.37602756 - -
257428.502 2831785.03 559720.619 0.109 0.362 0.1608592 - -
457650.67 1587547.27 2681447.56 0.276 0.514 0.66774338 - -
457650.67 469163.444 949547.734 0.250 0.253 0.36010683 - -
1306446.14 451944.682 1716323.42 0.537 0.316 0.61600469 - -
147796.299 177907.492 87922.3214 0.137 0.150 0.10541729 - -
2308700.09 2245872.72 4024476.77 1.477 1.456 1.94943879 - -
7158745.36 7911802.07 4543149.63 0.574 0.603 0.45689432 - -
16199086.6 14707244.6 14394058.2 0.587 0.559 0.5530161 - -
470660.445 279054.578 732610.082 0.141 0.108 0.17572123 - -
836729.679 538859.143 4627868.68 0.143 0.115 0.33717372 - -
470660.445 807700.389 3827734.21 0.102 0.134 0.29099864 - -
12890343.7 15997230.8 8149604.42 1.495 1.666 1.18890285 - -
604537.193 18826.4178 22960.4888 0.177 0.031 0.03451094 - -
5987323.81 3132904.18 5983919.33 1.189 0.860 1.18855083 - -
 75305.6711 39582.5434 446723.761 0.085 0.062 0.20728497 - -
2991632.15 1903708.9 4976977.31 1.157 0.923 1.49246259 - -
6073323.24 6153136.37 2419751.05 0.522 0.525 0.32932059 - -
157744.043 282717.957 650366.379 0.144 0.193 0.29321207 - -
6921242.9 4867785.93 5130912.46 0.468 0.393 0.40302323 - -
2234388.85 2181085.27 3755959.39 0.255 0.252 0.3307463 - -
486600.239 143.000886 1071187.54 0.128 0.002 0.19021817 - -
21936733.2 21806240.9 13750192.9 4.896 4.881 3.87610063 - -
667734.695 2762920.13 1357561.33 0.167 0.339 0.23764381 - -
3006593.64 4505421.68 2166116.19 0.315 0.386 0.26755537 - -
4547825.41 1236814.67 2317611.28 0.360 0.188 0.25718506 - -
14189263 15809641.8 9631203.35 2.250 2.375 1.85371462 - -
14300.0886 240384.49 59277.8946 0.028 0.115 0.05735201 - -
5506620.75 5741165.66 4826077.65 0.76740073 0.77088231 0.75178484 2280.118 2316.88
ados presentados el pronostico a utilizar es la suavizacion exponencial simple
mandadas de carne

Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19

Linear (CANTIDADES DEMANDADAS EN TONS)
 MAD
1873.2371

STANDAR DEL ERROR

METODO

suavizacion
Exponencial
simple

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
 -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2341.55
 Cerdo Suavizacion exponencial doble
α:0.25 y β:0,35
Proporción CANTIDADES
estadistica + fuente Mes por DEMANDADAS PERIODO
demanda EN TONS
Jan-15 0.05 877.60
Feb-15 0.04 640.40
Mar-15 0.09 1564.17
320.305 toneladas producidas en Apr-15 0.12 2063.13
el 2015 a nivel nacional May-15
fuente: 0.05 837.68
https://sioc.minagricultura.gov.co Jun-15 0.06 1061.70
/Porcina/Documentos/2019-12- Jul-15 0.06 1061.70
30%20Cifras%20sectoriales.pdf
Aug-15 0.12 2024.68
(pagina 5) Sep-15 0.12 1950.23
Oct-15 0.08 1416.86
Nov-15 0.12 1986.23
Dec-15 0.0792 1331.62
Jan-16 0.0256 479.91 1
Feb-16 0.05 916.98 2
Mar-16 0.11 1990.87 3
356.611 toneladas producidas en Apr-16 0.12 2243.16 4
el 2016 a nivel nacional May-16 5
fuente: 0.04 809.21
https://sioc.minagricultura.gov.co Jun-16 0.13 2509.02 6
/Porcina/Documentos/2019-12- Jul-16 0.11 2150.81 7
30%20Cifras%20sectoriales.pdf
Aug-16 0.07 1359.81 8
(pagina 5) Sep-16 0.07 1318.25 9
Oct-16 0.07 1359.81 10
Nov-16 0.13 2475.65 11
Dec-16 0.06 1108.59 12
Jan-17 0.15 2916.77 13
Feb-17 0.03 581.94 14
Mar-17 0.08 1540.20 15
371.347 toneladas producidas en Apr-17 0.16 3081.20 16
el 2017 a nivel nacional May-17 17
fuente: 0.07 1399.71
https://sioc.minagricultura.gov.co Jun-17 0.08 1508.67 18
/Porcina/Documentos/2019-12- Jul-17 0.03 553.21 19
30%20Cifras%20sectoriales.pdf
Aug-17 0.05 932.37 20
(pagina 5) Sep-17 0.05 935.58 21
Oct-17 0.14 2809.33 22
Nov-17 0.12 2409.25 23
Dec-17 0.04 827.50 24
Jan-18 0.02 519.57 25
Feb-18 0.14 3033.24 26
Mar-18 0.06 1220.06 27
410.270 toneladas producidas en Apr-18 0.15 3333.21 28
el 2018 a nivel nacional May-18 29
fuente: 0.05 1085.61
https://sioc.minagricultura.gov.co
/Porcina/Documentos/2019-12-
30%20Cifras%20sectoriales.pdf

(pagina 5)
410.270 toneladas producidas en
el 2018 a nivel nacional
fuente:
https://sioc.minagricultura.gov.co Jun-18 0.15 3288.39 30
/Porcina/Documentos/2019-12- Jul-18 0.08 1734.21 31
30%20Cifras%20sectoriales.pdf Aug-18 32
0.08 1703.47
(pagina 5) Sep-18 0.14 2952.42 33
Oct-18 0.08 1703.47 34
Nov-18 0.07 1516.25 35
Dec-18 0.11 2474.22 36
Jan-19 37
Feb-19 38
Mar-19 39
Apr-19 40
May-19 41
Jun-19 42
Jul-19 43
Aug-19 44
Sep-19 45
Oct-19 46
Nov-19 47
Dec-19 48
Suavizacion exponencial doble REGRESION LINEAR
α:0.25 y β:0,35 17.33 1233.59
t (periodo dt (demanda
del periodo
St Gt FT PERIODO FT de tiempo)
de tiempo)

1 1250.93 1 877.60
2 1268.26 2 640.40
3 1285.60 3 1564.17
4 1302.93 4 2063.13
5 1320.27 5 837.68
6 1337.60 6 1061.70
7 1354.93 7 1061.70
8 1372.27 8 2024.68
9 1389.60 9 1950.23
10 1406.94 10 1416.86
11 1424.27 11 1986.23
1381.34 19.60 1400.94 12 1441.61 12 1331.62
1170.68 -60.99 1109.69 13 1458.94 13 479.91
1061.51 -77.85 983.66 14 1476.28 14 916.98
1235.47 10.28 1245.74 15 1493.61 15 1990.87
1495.10 97.55 1592.65 16 1510.95 16 2243.16
1396.79 29.00 1425.79 17 1528.28 17 809.21
1696.60 123.78 1820.38 18 1545.62 18 2509.02
1902.99 152.70 2055.69 19 1562.95 19 2150.81
1881.72 91.81 1973.53 20 1580.28 20 1359.81
1809.71 34.47 1844.18 21 1597.62 21 1318.25
1723.09 -7.91 1715.17 22 1614.95 22 1359.81
1905.29 58.63 1963.92 23 1632.29 23 2475.65
1750.09 -16.21 1733.88 24 1649.62 24 1108.59
2029.60 87.29 2116.90 25 1666.96 25 2916.77
1733.16 -47.02 1686.14 26 1684.29 26 581.94
1649.66 -59.79 1589.87 27 1701.63 27 1540.20
1962.70 70.71 2033.41 28 1718.96 28 3081.20
1874.98 15.26 1890.24 29 1736.30 29 1399.71
1794.85 -18.13 1776.71 30 1753.63 30 1508.67
1470.84 -125.19 1345.65 31 1770.97 31 553.21
1242.33 -161.35 1080.98 32 1788.30 32 932.37
1044.63 -174.07 870.56 33 1805.63 33 935.58
1355.25 -4.43 1350.82 34 1822.97 34 2809.33
1615.43 88.18 1703.61 35 1840.30 35 2409.25
1484.58 11.52 1496.10 36 1857.64 36 827.50
1251.97 -73.92 1178.05 37 1874.97 37 519.57
1641.85 88.41 1730.25 38 1892.31 38 3033.24
1602.70 43.76 1646.47 39 1909.64 39 1220.06
2068.15 191.35 2259.51 40 1926.98 40 3333.21
1966.03 88.64 2054.67 41 1944.31 41 1085.61
2363.10 196.59 2559.69 42 1961.65 42 3288.39
2353.32 124.36 2477.68 43 1978.98 43 1734.21
2284.13 56.62 2340.74 44 1996.31 44 1703.47
2493.66 110.14 2603.80 45 2013.65 45 2952.42
2378.72 31.36 2410.08 46 2030.98 46 1703.47
2186.62 -46.85 2139.77 47 2048.32 47 1516.25
2223.38 -17.59 2205.80 48 2065.65 48 2474.22
1654.35 -210.59 1443.75 49 2082.99
2188.21 50 2100.32
2170.62 51 2117.66
2153.04 52 2134.99
2135.45 53 2152.33
2117.87 54 2169.66
2100.28 55 2187.00
2082.69 56 2204.33
2065.11 57 2221.66
2047.52 58 2239.00
2029.94 59 2256.33
2012.35 61 2291.00

2063.13 2024.68
1950.23 198

1564.17
1416.86

1061.70
1061.70
877.60 837.68
640.40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1
 COMPARATVIO DE ERRORES
ft et (ERROR MEDIO) letl e^2 t
Suavizacion REGRESION Suavizacion REGRESION Suavizacion REGRESION Suavizacion REGRESION
exponencial exponencial exponencial exponencial
doble LINEAR doble LINEAR doble LINEAR doble LINEAR

1250.93 373.33 373.33 139372.14

1268.26 627.86 627.86 394205.06
1285.60 -278.57 278.57 77600.85
1302.93 -760.20 760.20 577909.91
1320.27 482.58 482.58 232887.65
1337.60 275.90 275.90 76120.72
1354.93 293.23 293.23 85986.43
1372.27 -652.41 652.41 425639.71
1389.60 -560.62 560.62 314296.37
1406.94 -9.93 9.93 98.53
1424.27 -561.96 561.96 315798.85
1400.94 1441.61 69.32 109.99 69.32 109.99 4804.99 12097.36
1109.69 1458.94 629.78 979.04 629.78 979.04 396626.52 958509.59
983.66 1476.28 66.68 559.29 66.68 559.29 4445.90 312807.97
1245.74 1493.61 -745.13 -497.26 745.13 497.26 555217.56 247269.54
1592.65 1510.95 -650.51 -732.21 650.51 732.21 423158.01 536131.50
1425.79 1528.28 616.58 719.07 616.58 719.07 380170.19 517057.14
1820.38 1545.62 -688.63 -963.40 688.63 963.40 474215.77 928142.09
2055.69 1562.95 -95.12 -587.86 95.12 587.86 9048.37 345578.65
1973.53 1580.28 613.71 220.47 613.71 220.47 376643.41 48607.82
1844.18 1597.62 525.93 279.37 525.93 279.37 276602.03 78048.86
1715.17 1614.95 355.36 255.14 355.36 255.14 126281.95 65096.93
1963.92 1632.29 -511.73 -843.36 511.73 843.36 261865.13 711262.42
1733.88 1649.62 625.29 541.03 625.29 541.03 390987.00 292716.29
2116.90 1666.96 -799.88 -1249.82 799.88 1249.82 639805.79 1562041.71
1686.14 1684.29 1104.20 1102.35 1104.20 1102.35 1219251.39 1215170.00
1589.87 1701.63 49.67 161.43 49.67 161.43 2467.46 26060.14
2033.41 1718.96 -1047.80 -1362.24 1047.80 1362.24 1097876.24 1855704.80
1890.24 1736.30 490.53 336.59 490.53 336.59 240622.85 113293.00
1776.71 1753.63 268.05 244.96 268.05 244.96 71849.75 60007.25
1345.65 1770.97 792.44 1217.76 792.44 1217.76 627967.72 1482939.64
1080.98 1788.30 148.61 855.93 148.61 855.93 22085.06 732618.68
870.56 1805.63 -65.02 870.06 65.02 870.06 4227.74 757001.30
1350.82 1822.97 -1458.51 -986.36 1458.51 986.36 2127258.86 972911.65
1703.61 1840.30 -705.64 -568.94 705.64 568.94 497924.24 323695.02
1496.10 1857.64 668.60 1030.14 668.60 1030.14 447031.55 1061185.49
1178.05 1874.97 658.47 1355.40 658.47 1355.40 433587.41 1837104.96
1730.25 1892.31 -1302.99 -1140.93 1302.99 1140.93 1697779.12 1301727.97
1646.47 1909.64 426.41 689.58 426.41 689.58 181825.03 475526.65
2259.51 1926.98 -1073.70 -1406.23 1073.70 1406.23 1152833.20 1977480.92
2054.67 1944.31 969.06 858.70 969.06 858.70 939073.89 737365.71
 2559.69 1961.65 -728.70 -1326.74 728.70 1326.74 531006.40 1760249.02
2477.68 1978.98 743.47 244.77 743.47 244.77 552742.86 59912.23
2340.74 1996.31 637.27 292.84 637.27 292.84 406112.41 85756.50
2603.80 2013.65 -348.62 -938.77 348.62 938.77 121536.63 881291.89
2410.08 2030.98 706.60 327.51 706.60 327.51 499290.22 107263.65
2139.77 2048.32 623.52 532.06 623.52 532.06 388773.23 283091.87
2205.80 2065.65 -268.42 -408.56 268.42 408.56 72049.35 166924.29
35.112560 0.000000 602.16 659.85 477163.38 573532.64
PRONOSTCIO MAS ACERTADO : SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL DOBLE

Cantidades demandadas de cerdo

La Granja De Juan

3081.20
2916.77
280

2509.02 2475.65
2243.16
2150.81
063.13 2024.68
1950.23 1986.23 1990.87

7 1540.20 1508.67
1416.86 1359.81 1359.81 1399.71
1331.62 1318.25
1061.70
1061.70 1108.59
916.98 935.58
932.37
837.68 809.21
581.94 553.21
479.91

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 3
 DESVIACION ESTANDAR DESVIACION ESTANDAR
letI / dt DEL ERROR DEL ERROR
1ER METODO 2DO METODO
Suavizacion REGRESION Suavizacion REGRESION Suavizacion REGRESION
exponencial exponencial exponencial
doble LINEAR doble LINEAR doble LINEAR

0.42539327 - - - -
0.98040789 - - - -
0.17809448 - - - -
0.36847025 - - - -
0.57609536 - - - -
0.25986598 - - - -
0.27619318 - - - -
0.32222901 - - - -
0.28746492 - - - -
0.00700575 - - - -
0.28292743 - - - -
0.0520554 0.08259715 - - - -
1.3123008 2.0400497 - - - -
0.07271397 0.60992555 - - - -
0.37427247 0.24977076 - - - -
0.28999583 0.32641953 - - - -
0.76194855 0.88859913 - - - -
0.2744634 0.38397564 - - - -
0.04422658 0.27332007 - - - -
0.45132153 0.16213394 - - - -
0.39896142 0.2119271 - - - -
0.26133134 0.1876295 - - - -
0.20670415 0.34066326 - - - -
0.56404018 0.48803652 - - - -
0.27423397 0.42849276 - - - -
1.89742621 1.89424778 - - - -
0.03225147 0.10481237 - - - -
0.34006054 0.44211372 - - - -
0.35045454 0.24047215 - - - -
0.17767212 0.16237102 - - - -
1.43245992 2.20128137 - - - -
0.15939026 0.91801861 - - - -
0.0694984 0.92997047 - - - -
0.51916706 0.35110229 - - - -
0.29288731 0.23614945 - - - -
0.80798127 1.24488105 - - - -
1.26733273 2.60867095 - - - -
0.42956983 0.37614327 - - - -
0.34949946 0.56520645 - - - -
0.32212253 0.42188493 - - - -
0.89263845 0.79098304 - - - -
 0.2215984 0.40346308 - - - -
0.42870617 0.14114189 - - - -
0.37410018 0.17190888 - - - -
0.11807972 0.31796667 - - - -
0.41480245 0.19226094 - - - -
0.41122163 0.35090655 - - - -
0.10848689 0.16512848 - - - -
0.453 0.539 690.770139 757.319378 752.701294 824.81214
XPONENCIAL DOBLE

de cerdo

3333.21 3288.39
1.20 3033.24
2952.42
2809.33

2409.25 2474.22

1734.21
1703.47 1703.47
1508.67 1516.25
1399.71
1220.06
1085.61
935.58
932.37
827.50

553.21 519.57

8 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
 Pollo Suavización exponencial doble
α:0.25 y β:0,35
Proporción CANTIDADES
PERIODO
estadística + fuente Mes por DEMANDADAS St
t
demanda EN TONS
Jan-15 0.03 2596.54
Feb-15 0.05 3462.05
Mar-15 0.06 4500.67
1'424.387 toneladas en el 2015 Apr-15 0.07 5193.08
producidas a nivel nacional May-15
fuente: 0.08 6058.59
https://sioc.minagricultura.gov.c Jun-15 0.09 6577.90
o/Avicola/Documentos/2019-03- Jul-15 0.09 6924.10
30%20Cifras%20Sectoriales.pdf
Aug-15 0.10 7443.41
(pagina 12) Sep-15 0.10 7270.31
Oct-15 0.11 8135.82
Nov-15 0.12 8655.13
Dec-15 0.11 7962.72 6106.68
Jan-16 0.07 5533.61 1.00 5992.07
Feb-16 0.08 5994.75 2.00 5981.28
Mar-16 0.08 6571.17 3.00 6118.47
Apr-16 0.09 6686.45 4.00 6289.80
1'478.924 toneladas producidas May-16 0.08 6340.60 5.00 6366.53
en el 2016 a nivel nacional Jun-16 0.09 6686.45 6.00 6508.28
fuente:
https://fenavi.org/informacion- Jul-16 0.09 6917.02 7.00 6687.82
estadistica/ Aug-16 0.08 5879.46 8.00 6583.15
Sep-16 0.08 6225.31 9.00 6529.53
Oct-16 0.09 6628.81 10.00 6563.57
Nov-16 0.09 6917.02 11.00 6666.86
Dec-16 0.09 7262.87 12.00 6852.68
Jan-17 0.07 5980.51 13.00 6707.35
Feb-17 0.08 6366.35 14.00 6631.21
Mar-17 0.08 6173.43 15.00 6502.70
Apr-17 0.08 6559.27 16.00 6473.97
1'563.569 toneladas producidas May-17 0.08 6752.19 17.00 6508.12
en el 2017 a nivel nacional Jun-17 0.08 6848.65 18.00 6579.20
fuente:
https://fenavi.org/informacion- Jul-17 0.09 7041.57 19.00 6704.31
estadistica/ Aug-17 0.08 6945.11 20.00 6803.55
Sep-17 0.09 7330.95 21.00 6986.82
Oct-17 0.09 7427.41 22.00 7178.50
Nov-17 0.09 7427.41 23.00 7344.04
Dec-17 0.09 7234.49 24.00 7427.26
Jan-18 0.07 6033.82 25.00 7172.64
Feb-18 0.07 6188.54 26.00 6920.71
Mar-18 0.08 6807.39 27.00 6822.41
Apr-18 0.08 6962.10 28.00 6786.05
1'629.648 toneladas producidas
en el 2018 a nivel nacional
fuente:
https://fenavi.org/informacion-
estadistica/
1'629.648 toneladas producidas May-18 0.08 7116.82 29.00 6812.86
en el 2018 a nivel nacional Jun-18 0.08 6962.10 30.00 6820.89
fuente:
https://fenavi.org/informacion- Jul-18 0.08 7271.53 31.00 6916.62
estadistica/ Aug-18 0.08 7271.53 32.00 7019.47
Sep-18 0.09 7426.24 33.00 7157.35
Oct-18 0.09 7658.31 34.00 7342.30
Nov-18 0.09 7735.67 35.00 7528.01
Dec-18 0.09 8122.45 36.00 7782.15
Jan-19 37.00 5971.92
Feb-19 38.00
Mar-19 39.00
Apr-19 40.00
May-19 41.00
Jun-19 42.00
Jul-19 43.00
Aug-19 44.00
Sep-19 45.00
Oct-19 46.00
Nov-19 47.00
Dec-19 48.00

SEAPLICO TAO PARA XPONECIAL DOBLE

TRIPLE JUNIO 3 MIN 55

 Suavización exponencial triple
avización exponencial doble ALPHA BETA GAMA m N PENDIENTE
α:0.25 y β:0,35 0.15 0.25 0.25 3 12 38.21
Promedio
Gt FT Yt Dt/Yt puntos de St Gt Ct
coincidencia
0.89
0.93
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.01
1.04
0.97
1.01
1.04
1.05
38.21 6144.89 6106.68 38.21 1.07
-15.28 5976.79 6144.89 0.90 0.89 6159.08 41.76 0.89
-13.71 5967.57 6183.10 0.97 0.93 6234.25 50.11 0.94
39.11 6157.58 6221.31 1.06 0.98 6349.53 66.40 0.99
85.38 6375.18 6259.51 1.07 1.00 6451.62 75.32 1.01
82.36 6448.89 6297.72 1.01 1.00 6501.33 68.92 0.99
103.14 6611.43 6335.93 1.06 1.01 6579.98 71.35 1.01
129.88 6817.71 6374.14 1.09 1.04 6653.51 71.90 1.04
47.79 6630.93 6412.35 0.92 0.97 6622.73 46.23 0.95
12.30 6541.82 6450.56 0.97 1.01 6591.92 26.97 0.99
19.91 6583.48 6488.77 1.02 1.04 6580.66 17.41 1.03
49.09 6715.95 6526.97 1.06 1.05 6592.69 16.07 1.05
96.95 6949.63 6565.18 1.11 1.07 6631.86 21.84 1.08
12.15 6719.50 6603.39 0.91 6663.86 24.38 0.89
-18.75 6612.46 6641.60 0.96 6700.57 27.46 0.94
-57.17 6445.54 6679.81 0.92 6652.08 8.47 0.98
-47.21 6426.76 6718.02 0.98 6632.95 1.57 1.01
-18.74 6489.38 6756.23 1.00 6660.36 8.03 1.00
12.70 6591.89 6794.43 1.01 6685.42 12.29 1.01
52.04 6756.36 6832.64 1.03 6710.46 15.48 1.04
68.56 6872.11 6870.85 1.01 6811.46 36.86 0.97
108.71 7095.53 6909.06 1.06 6926.65 56.44 1.01
137.75 7316.25 6947.27 1.07 7014.12 64.20 1.04
147.48 7491.52 6985.48 1.06 7074.76 63.31 1.05
124.99 7552.25 7023.69 1.03 7072.85 47.00 1.07
-7.88 7164.77 7061.89 0.85 7066.88 33.76 0.88
-93.30 6827.41 7100.10 0.87 7020.18 13.64 0.93
-95.05 6727.36 7138.31 0.95 7024.76 11.38 0.97
-74.51 6711.54 7176.52 0.97 7017.97 6.84 1.00
 -39.05 6773.81 7214.73 0.99 7041.36 10.98 1.00
-22.57 6798.32 7252.94 0.96 7024.90 4.12 1.01
18.84 6935.46 7291.15 1.00 7022.48 2.48 1.04
48.24 7067.72 7329.35 0.99 7097.04 20.50 0.98
79.61 7236.96 7367.56 1.01 7152.21 29.17 1.02
116.48 7458.78 7405.77 1.03 7209.26 36.14 1.05
140.71 7668.71 7443.98 1.04 7261.48 40.16 1.06
180.41 7962.56 7482.19 1.09 tao 7350.24 52.31 1.08
-516.31 5455.61 1.00
8142.97 2.00
8323.39 3.00
8503.80 4.00
8684.21 5.00
8864.62 6.00
9045.03 7.00
9225.45 8.00
9405.86 9.00
9586.27 10.00
9766.68 11.00
9947.10 12.00

PARA XPONECIAL DOBLE

Chart Title
e
INTERSECCION C
6106.68 ft et (ERROR MEDIO)
dt (demanda
t (periodo Suavizacion
del periodo Suavizacion
Suavizacion
Ft de tiempo) de tiempo) esponencial exponencial esponencial doble
doble triple

1 2596.54
2 3462.05
3 4500.67
4 5193.08
5 6058.59
6 6577.90
7 6924.10
8 7443.41
9 7270.31
10 8135.82
11 8655.13
12 7962.72 6144.89 -1817.83
5449.73 13 5533.61 5976.79 5449.73 443.18
5786.84 14 5994.75 5967.57 5786.84 -27.17
6146.25 15 6571.17 6157.58 6146.25 -413.59
6447.37 16 6686.45 6375.18 6447.37 -311.27
6510.93 17 6340.60 6448.89 6510.93 108.29
6621.07 18 6686.45 6611.43 6621.07 -75.02
6902.00 19 6917.02 6817.71 6902.00 -99.31
6545.65 20 5879.46 6630.93 6545.65 751.47
6744.79 21 6225.31 6541.82 6744.79 316.51
6894.22 22 6628.81 6583.48 6894.22 -45.33
6954.83 23 6917.02 6715.95 6954.83 -201.06
7097.49 24 7262.87 6949.63 7097.49 -313.24
5920.24 25 5980.51 6719.50 5920.24 738.98
6289.11 26 6366.35 6612.46 6289.11 246.11
6675.85 27 6173.43 6445.54 6675.85 272.10
6745.64 28 6559.27 6426.76 6745.64 -132.52
6581.31 29 6752.19 6489.38 6581.31 -262.82
6734.05 30 6848.65 6591.89 6734.05 -256.76
6953.33 31 7041.57 6756.36 6953.33 -285.21
6402.40 32 6945.11 6872.11 6402.40 -73.00
6811.50 33 7330.95 7095.53 6811.50 -235.42
7213.73 34 7427.41 7316.25 7213.73 -111.16
7452.42 35 7427.41 7491.52 7452.42 64.10
7703.77 36 7234.49 7552.25 7703.77 317.75
6348.69 37 6033.82 7164.77 6348.69 1130.94
6694.29 38 6188.54 6827.41 6694.29 638.88
6866.38 39 6807.39 6727.36 6866.38 -80.03
7084.01 40 6962.10 6711.54 7084.01 -250.57
7006.77 41 7116.82 6773.81 7006.77 -343.00
7147.46 42 6962.10 6798.32 7147.46 -163.79
7316.93 43 7271.53 6935.46 7316.93 -336.07
6805.98 44 7271.53 7067.72 6805.98 -203.81
7192.70 45 7426.24 7236.96 7192.70 -189.28
7465.05 46 7658.31 7458.78 7465.05 -199.53
7622.88 47 7735.67 7668.71 7622.88 -66.96
7777.36 48 8122.45 7962.56 7777.36 -159.89
6530.68 -43.93
6914.11
PRONOSTC
7315.06
7583.01
7617.52 Canti
7724.50
La Gr
8021.87
7634.84
7957.89
8229.20 7262.87
6917.02 6917.02
8364.73 6686.45
6571.17 6686.45 6628.81
6340.60 6225.31 6366.356173.4
8577.33 5994.75 5879.46 5980.51
5533.61

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 COMPARATVIO DE ERRORES
et (ERROR MEDIO) letl e^2 t letI / dt
Suavizacion Suavizacion Suavizacion Suavizacion
Suavizacion Suavizacion Suavizacion
exponencial esponencial doble exponencial esponencial doble exponencial esponencial doble exponencial
triple triple triple triple

1817.83 3304505.59 0.228292611

-83.88 443.18 83.88 196407.49 7036.46 0.080088512 0.015158921
-207.91 27.17 207.91 738.41 43226.35 0.00453291 0.034681938
-424.91 413.59 424.91 171053.76 180552.64 0.062939588 0.064663544
-239.08 311.27 239.08 96888.46 57160.84 0.046552228 0.035756398
170.33 108.29 170.33 11727.55 29012.83 0.017079433 0.026863637
-65.38 75.02 65.38 5628.60 4274.70 0.0112203 0.00977816
-15.02 99.31 15.02 9862.55 225.63 0.014357401 0.00217159
666.18 751.47 666.18 564704.74 443801.13 0.127812398 0.113306928
519.47 316.51 519.47 100177.61 269852.54 0.050842162 0.08344531
265.41 45.33 265.41 2054.97 70443.85 0.006838594 0.04003927
37.81 201.06 37.81 40426.87 1429.73 0.029068073 0.005466482
-165.38 313.24 165.38 98119.35 27349.09 0.043128983 0.022770017
-60.28 738.98 60.28 546097.43 3633.28 0.123565316 0.010078855
-77.25 246.11 77.25 60568.69 5967.06 0.038657463 0.012133594
502.41 272.10 502.41 74040.59 252419.15 0.044076608 0.081383129
186.36 132.52 186.36 17560.48 34731.28 0.020202843 0.028412188
-170.88 262.82 170.88 69071.97 29200.62 0.038922979 0.025307613
-114.60 256.76 114.60 65924.96 13132.75 0.037490377 0.016732958
-88.24 285.21 88.24 81347.01 7786.86 0.0405043 0.012531747
-542.72 73.00 542.72 5329.70 294541.80 0.010511675 0.078143737
-519.45 235.42 519.45 55424.27 269831.15 0.032113645 0.070857472
-213.68 111.16 213.68 12357.25 45658.35 0.014966606 0.028768856
25.00 64.10 25.00 4109.31 625.21 0.008630717 0.003366475
469.28 317.75 469.28 100967.88 220219.67 0.043922148 0.06486643
314.86 1130.94 314.86 1279030.27 99138.30 0.187433763 0.052182892
505.75 638.88 505.75 408162.80 255787.27 0.103235422 0.081724354
58.99 80.03 58.99 6404.88 3479.42 0.011756409 0.008665089
121.90 250.57 121.90 62782.91 14860.43 0.035989867 0.017509557
 -110.05 343.00 110.05 117651.98 12111.29 0.048196313 0.015463559
185.36 163.79 185.36 26826.55 34357.37 0.023525667 0.026623763
45.39 336.07 45.39 112946.31 2060.66 0.046217898 0.006242766
-465.55 203.81 465.55 41539.83 216740.57 0.02802893 0.064024216
-233.54 189.28 233.54 35827.29 54541.26 0.025488117 0.031448025
-193.27 199.53 193.27 39812.66 37351.39 0.026054181 0.02523598
-112.79 66.96 112.79 4483.10 12720.82 0.008655481 0.014580071
-345.10 159.89 345.10 25565.61 119091.63 0.019685245 0.042486733
-10.40 315.73 236.76 212327.83 88176.48 0.05 0.04
PRONOSTCIO MAS ACERTADO : Suavización exponencial triple

Cantidades demandadas de pollo

La Granja De Juan

7330.957427.417427.417234.49
7262.87
7041.576945.11 7116.826962.107271.53727
6917.02
6628.81
6848.65
6752.19 6807.396962.10
1 6366.356173.436559.27
5980.51 6033.826188.54

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 3
 DESVIACION ESTANDAR DESVIACION ESTANDAR
DEL ERROR
1ER METODO
Suavizacion
Suavizacion Suavizacion
esponencial doble exponencial esponencial doble
triple
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
DEL ERROR
2DO METODO
Suavizacion
exponencial
triple
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
 - -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
460.79 296.95
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
394.66 295.95

8122.45
7658.317735.67
7426.24
7116.826962.107271.537271.53
6807.396962.10
8.54

6 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
 Pronostico Cerdo
Milanesa de cerdo: 35% Costillas de cerdo: 15% chorizos 10% (ton)
Periodo ft (Ton) ft (kg) Tons kg Tons kg Tons
Jan-19 1443.75 1443754.29 505.31 505314.00 216.563144 216563.144025 144.37543
Feb-19 2188.21 2188210.75 765.87 765873.76 328.2316132 328231.613168 218.82108
Mar-19 2170.62 2170624.59 759.72 759718.61 325.5936881 325593.688135 217.06246
Apr-19 2153.04 2153038.42 753.56 753563.45 322.9557631 322955.763102 215.30384
May-19 2135.45 2135452.25 747.41 747408.29 320.3178381 320317.838068 213.54523
Jun-19 2117.87 2117866.09 741.25 741253.13 317.679913 317679.913035 211.78661
Jul-19 2100.28 2100279.92 735.10 735097.97 315.041988 315041.988002 210.02799
Aug-19 2082.69 2082693.75 728.94 728942.81 312.404063 312404.062969 208.26938
Sep-19 2065.11 2065107.59 722.79 722787.66 309.7661379 309766.137935 206.51076
Oct-19 2047.52 2047521.42 716.63 716632.50 307.1282129 307128.212902 204.75214
Nov-19 2029.94 2029935.25 710.48 710477.34 304.4902879 304490.287869 202.99353
Dec-19 2012.35 2012349.09 704.32 704322.18 301.8523628 301852.362836 201.23491

Pronostico pollo
Alas: 10% Pechuga: 50% Hueso: 15%
Periodo ft (Ton) ft (kg) Tons kg Tons kg Tons
Jan-19 6530.68 6,530,680.34 653.07 653,068.03 3,265.34 3,265,340.17 979.60
Feb-19 6914.11 6,914,107.91 691.41 691,410.79 3,457.05 3,457,053.95 1,037.12
Mar-19 7315.06 7,315,062.08 731.51 731,506.21 3,657.53 3,657,531.04 1,097.26
Apr-19 7583.01 7,583,008.46 758.30 758,300.85 3,791.50 3,791,504.23 1,137.45
May-19 7617.52 7,617,516.06 761.75 761,751.61 3,808.76 3,808,758.03 1,142.63
Jun-19 7724.50 7,724,502.03 772.45 772,450.20 3,862.25 3,862,251.01 1,158.68
Jul-19 8021.87 8,021,868.35 802.19 802,186.84 4,010.93 4,010,934.18 1,203.28
Aug-19 7634.84 7,634,842.07 763.48 763,484.21 3,817.42 3,817,421.04 1,145.23
Sep-19 7957.89 7,957,885.12 795.79 795,788.51 3,978.94 3,978,942.56 1,193.68
Oct-19 8229.20 8,229,195.78 822.92 822,919.58 4,114.60 4,114,597.89 1,234.38
Nov-19 8364.73 8,364,726.67 836.47 836,472.67 4,182.36 4,182,363.34 1,254.71
Dec-19 8577.33 8,577,328.69 857.73 857,732.87 4,288.66 4,288,664.35 1,286.60

Pronostico carne
Carne para asar 30% Sobrebarriga 8% Cadera 5%
Periodo ft (Ton) ft (kg) Tons kg Tons kg Tons
Jan-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
Feb-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
Mar-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
Apr-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
May-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
Jun-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
Jul-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
Aug-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
Sep-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
Oct-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
Nov-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
Dec-19 4063 4062593 1219 1218778 325 325007 203
 chorizos 10% (ton)
kg
144375.42935
218821.075445
217062.458757
215303.842068
213545.225379
211786.60869
210027.992001
208269.375312
206510.758624
204752.141935
202993.525246
201234.908557

o pollo
Hueso: 15% Otros: 25%
kg Tons kg
979,602.05 1,632.67 1,632,670.08
1,037,116.19 1,728.53 1,728,526.98
1,097,259.31 1,828.77 1,828,765.52
1,137,451.27 1,895.75 1,895,752.11
1,142,627.41 1,904.38 1,904,379.01
1,158,675.30 1,931.13 1,931,125.51
1,203,280.25 2,005.47 2,005,467.09
1,145,226.31 1,908.71 1,908,710.52
1,193,682.77 1,989.47 1,989,471.28
1,234,379.37 2,057.30 2,057,298.94
1,254,709.00 2,091.18 2,091,181.67
1,286,599.30 2,144.33 2,144,332.17

Pronostico carne
Cadera 5% hueso 5% Otros 42%
kg Tons kg Tons kg
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
203130 203 203130 1706 1706289
Bandejas de milanesa de cerdo
Trabajadores Iniciales 2
Tasa por Trabajador 30 bandejas/día
Costo Contratar $350,000
Costo Despedir $440,000
Costo Mantener Inventario $8,000 bandejas/semana
Salario $925,148
Inventario Inicial 0

ESTRATEGIA DE PERSECUSIÓN (FUERZA LABORAL VARIABLE)

January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019
Demanda 505.31 765.87 759.72 753.56 747.41
Días hábiles 21 20 20 20 22
Stock de seguridad 51 77 76 76 75
Inventario 125 559 399 246 158
Trabajadores Normales 1 2 1 1 1
Contrataciones 0 1 0 0 0
Despidos 1 0 1 0 0
Trab sobre tiempo
Total Trabajadores 1 2 1 1 1
Producción 630 1200 600 600 660
Producción Acumulada 630 1830 2430 3030 3690
COSTO MOD $925,148 $1,850,296 $925,148 $925,148 $925,148
COSTO CONTRA/DESP $440,000 $350,000 $440,000 $0 $0
COSTO MANTENER INV $997,488 $4,470,498 $3,192,749 $1,964,241 $1,264,975
COSTO SUBCONTRATAR
COSTO TOTAL PERIODO $2,362,636 $6,670,794 $4,557,897 $2,889,389 $2,190,123
COSTO TOTAL $49,58
COSTO UND PROMEDIO $5,
June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019
741.25 735.10 728.94 722.79 716.63 710.48 704.32
18 22 20 21 22 19 21
75 74 73 73 72 72 141
497 422 293 200 143 573 499
2 1 1 1 1 2 1
1 0 0 0 0 1 0
0 1 0 0 0 0 1

2 1 1 1 1 2 1
1080 660 600 630 660 1140 630
4770 5430 6030 6660 7320 8460 9090
$1,850,296 $925,148 $925,148 $925,148 $925,148 $1,850,296 $925,148
$350,000 $440,000 $0 $0 $0 $350,000 $440,000
$3,974,950 $3,374,166 $2,342,624 $1,600,323 $1,147,263 $4,583,444 $3,988,866

$6,175,246 $4,739,314 $3,267,772 $2,525,471 $2,072,411 $6,783,740 $5,354,014

$49,588,807
$5,455
Bandejas de costilla de cerdo
Trabajadores Iniciales 2
Tasa por Trabajador 20 bandejas/día
Costo Contratar $350,000
Costo Despedir $440,000
Costo Mantener Inventario $8,000 bandejas/semana
Salario $925,148
Inventario Inicial 0

January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019
Demanda 216.56 328.23 325.59 322.96 320.32
Días hábiles 21 20 20 20 22
Stock de seguridad 22 33 33 33 33
Inventario 203 275 350 427 -334
Trabajadores Normales 1 1 1 1 -1
Contrataciones 0 0 0 0 0
Despidos 1 0 0 0 2
Total Trabajadores 1 1 1 1 -1
Producción 420 400 400 400 -440
Producción Acumulada 420 820 1220 1620 1180
COSTO MOD $925,148 $925,148 $925,148 $925,148 -$925,148
COSTO CONTRA/DESP $440,000 $0 $0 $0 $880,000
COSTO MANTENER INV $1,627,495 $2,201,642 $2,796,892 $3,413,246 -$2,669,296
COSTO TOTAL PERIODO $2,992,643 $3,126,790 $3,722,040 $4,338,394 -$2,714,444
COSTO TOTAL $28,9
COSTO UND PROMEDIO $7,
June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019
317.68 315.04 312.40 309.77 307.13 304.49 301.85
18 22 20 21 22 19 21
32 32 32 31 31 31 61
69 194 281 391 -356 100 218
2 1 1 1 -1 2 1
3 0 0 0 0 3 0
0 1 0 0 2 0 1
2 1 1 1 -1 2 1
720 440 400 420 -440 760 420
1900 2340 2740 3160 2720 3480 3900
$1,850,296 $925,148 $925,148 $925,148 -$925,148 $1,850,296 $925,148
$1,050,000 $440,000 $0 $0 $880,000 $1,050,000 $440,000
$549,264 $1,548,928 $2,249,696 $3,131,567 -$2,845,459 $798,619 $1,743,800
$3,449,560 $2,914,076 $3,174,844 $4,056,715 -$2,890,607 $3,698,915 $3,108,948
$28,977,874
$7,430
Bandejas de Alas de Pollo
Trabajadores Iniciales 2
Tasa por Trabajador 15 bandejas/día
Costo Contratar $350,000
Costo Despedir $440,000
Costo Mantener Inventario $7,000 bandejas/semana
Salario $925,148
Inventario Inicial 0

January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019
Demanda 653.07 691.41 731.51 758.30 761.75
Días hábiles 21 20 20 20 22
Stock de seguridad 66.00 70.00 74.00 76.00 77.00
Inventario 292 201 369 211 109
Trabajadores Normales 3 2 3 2 2
Contrataciones 1 0 1 0 0
Despidos 0 1 0 1 0
Total Trabajadores 3 2 3 2 2
Producción 945 600 900 600 660
Producción Acumulada 945 1545 2445 3045 3705
COSTO MOD $2,775,444 $1,850,296 $2,775,444 $1,850,296 $1,850,296
COSTO CONTRA/DESP $350,000 $440,000 $350,000 $440,000 $0
COSTO MANTENER INV $2,043,524 $1,403,648 $2,583,105 $1,474,999 $762,738
COSTO TOTAL PERIODO $5,168,968 $3,693,944 $5,708,549 $3,765,295 $2,613,034
COSTO TOTAL $51,42
COSTO UND PROMEDIO $5,
June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019
772.45 802.19 763.48 795.79 822.92 836.47 857.73
18 22 20 21 22 19 21
78.00 81.00 77.00 80.00 83.00 84.00 172.00
147 334 171 320 157 176 263
3 3 2 3 2 3 3
1 0 0 1 0 1 0
0 0 1 0 1 0 0
3 3 2 3 2 3 3
810 990 600 945 660 855 945
4515 5505 6105 7050 7710 8565 9510
$2,775,444 $2,775,444 $1,850,296 $2,775,444 $1,850,296 $2,775,444 $2,775,444
$350,000 $0 $440,000 $350,000 $440,000 $350,000 $0
$1,025,586 $2,340,278 $1,195,889 $2,240,369 $1,099,932 $1,229,624 $1,840,494
$4,151,030 $5,115,722 $3,486,185 $5,365,813 $3,390,228 $4,355,068 $4,615,938
$51,429,773
$5,408
Bandejas de Pechuga de Pollo
Trabajadores Iniciales 2
Tasa por Trabajador 30 bandejas/día
Costo Contratar $350,000
Costo Despedir $440,000
Costo Mantener Inventario $7,000 bandejas/semana
Salario $925,148
Inventario Inicial 0

January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019
Demanda 3265.34 3457.05 3657.53 3791.50 3808.76
Días hábiles 21 20 20 20 22
Stock de seguridad 327 346 366 380 381
Inventario 515 658 600 409 560
Trabajadores Normales 6 6 6 6 6
Contrataciones 4 0 0 0 0
Despidos 0 0 0 0 0
Total Trabajadores 6 6 6 6 6
Producción 3780 3600 3600 3600 3960
Producción Acumulada 3780 7380 10980 14580 18540
COSTO MOD $5,550,888 $5,550,888 $5,550,888 $5,550,888 $5,550,888
COSTO CONTRA/DESP $1,400,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
COSTO MANTENER INV $3,602,619 $4,603,241 $4,200,524 $2,859,994 $3,918,688
COSTO TOTAL PERIODO $10,553,507 $10,154,129 $9,751,412 $8,410,882 $9,469,576
COSTO TOTAL $126,5
COSTO UND PROMEDIO $2
 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019
3862.25 4010.93 3817.42 3978.94 4114.60 4182.36 4288.66
18 22 20 21 22 19 21
387 402 382 398 412 419 858
478 427 809 610 456 833 955
7 6 7 6 6 8 7
1 0 1 0 0 2 0
0 1 0 1 0 0 1
7 6 7 6 6 8 7
3780 3960 4200 3780 3960 4560 4410
22320 26280 30480 34260 38220 42780 47190
$6,476,036 $5,550,888 $6,476,036 $5,550,888 $5,550,888 $7,401,184 $6,476,036
$350,000 $440,000 $350,000 $440,000 $0 $700,000 $440,000
$3,342,931 $2,986,392 $5,664,444 $4,271,847 $3,189,661 $5,833,118 $6,682,468
$10,168,967 $8,977,280 $12,490,480 $10,262,735 $8,740,549 $13,934,302 $13,598,504
$126,512,323
$2,681
Bandejas de Carne Sobrebarriga
Trabajadores Iniciales 3
Tasa por Trabajador 20 bandejas/día
Costo Contratar $350,000
Costo Despedir $440,000
Costo Mantener Inventario $10,000 bandejas/semana
Salario $925,148
Inventario Inicial 0

January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019
Demanda 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00
Días hábiles 21 20 20 20 22
Stock de seguridad 33 33 33 33 33
Inventario 95 170 245 320 435
Trabajadores Normales 1 1 1 1 1
Contrataciones 0 0 0 0 0
Despidos 2 0 0 0 0
Total Trabajadores 1 1 1 1 1
Producción 420 400 400 400 440
Producción Acumulada 420 820 1220 1620 2060
COSTO MOD $925,148 $925,148 $925,148 $925,148 $925,148
COSTO CONTRA/DESP $880,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
COSTO MANTENER INV $950,000 $1,700,000 $2,450,000 $3,200,000 $4,350,000
COSTO TOTAL PERIODO $2,755,148 $2,625,148 $3,375,148 $4,125,148 $5,275,148
COSTO TOTAL $35,9
COSTO UND PROMEDIO $8,
June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019
325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00 325.00
18 22 20 21 22 19 21
33 33 33 33 33 33 65
-250 305 380 -365 190 245 340
-1 2 1 -1 2 1 1
0 3 0 0 3 0 0
2 0 1 2 0 1 0
-1 2 1 -1 2 1 1
-360 880 400 -420 880 380 420
1700 2580 2980 2560 3440 3820 4240
-$925,148 $1,850,296 $925,148 -$925,148 $1,850,296 $925,148 $925,148
$880,000 $1,050,000 $440,000 $880,000 $1,050,000 $440,000 $0
-$2,500,000 $3,050,000 $3,800,000 -$3,650,000 $1,900,000 $2,450,000 $3,400,000
-$2,545,148 $5,950,296 $5,165,148 -$3,695,148 $4,800,296 $3,815,148 $4,325,148
$35,971,480
$8,484
Bandejas de Carne para Asar
Trabajadores Iniciales 3
Tasa por Trabajador 35 bandejas/día
Costo Contratar $350,000
Costo Despedir $440,000
Costo Mantener Inventario $10,000 bandejas/semana
Salario $925,148
Inventario Inicial 0

January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019
Demanda 1219.00 1219.00 1219.00 1219.00 1219.00
Días hábiles 21 20 20 20 22
Stock de seguridad 122 122 122 122 122
Inventario 251 432 613 794 345
Trabajadores Normales 2 2 2 2 1
Contrataciones 0 0 0 0 0
Despidos 1 0 0 0 1
Total Trabajadores 2 2 2 2 1
Producción 1470 1400 1400 1400 770
Producción Acumulada 1470 2870 4270 5670 6440
COSTO MOD $1,850,296 $1,850,296 $1,850,296 $1,850,296 $925,148
COSTO CONTRA/DESP $440,000 $0 $0 $0 $440,000
COSTO MANTENER INV $2,510,000 $4,320,000 $6,130,000 $7,940,000 $3,450,000
COSTO TOTAL PERIODO $4,800,296 $6,170,296 $7,980,296 $9,790,296 $4,815,148
COSTO TOTAL $78,01
COSTO UND PROMEDIO $5,
June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019
1219.00 1219.00 1219.00 1219.00 1219.00 1219.00 1219.00
18 22 20 21 22 19 21
122 122 122 122 122 122 244
386 707 188 439 760 206 457
2 2 1 2 2 1 2
1 0 0 1 0 0 1
0 0 1 0 0 1 0
2 2 1 2 2 1 2
1260 1540 700 1470 1540 665 1470
7700 9240 9940 11410 12950 13615 15085
$1,850,296 $1,850,296 $925,148 $1,850,296 $1,850,296 $925,148 $1,850,296
$350,000 $0 $440,000 $350,000 $0 $440,000 $350,000
$3,860,000 $7,070,000 $1,880,000 $4,390,000 $7,600,000 $2,060,000 $4,570,000
$6,060,296 $8,920,296 $3,245,148 $6,590,296 $9,450,296 $3,425,148 $6,770,296
$78,018,108
$5,172