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RATING ACTION COMMENTARY

Fitch Downgrades Suriname's


Long-Term Foreign Currency
IDR to 'C'
Thu 02 Jul, 2020 - 3:07 PM ET

     

Fitch Ratings - New York - 02 Jul 2020: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Suriname's Long-Term
Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'C' from 'CCC'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The downgrade of Suriname's Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR to 'C' re ects Fitch's view that the
Government of Suriname has begun a distressed debt exchange (DDE) in relation to its 2023
bonds.

The Government of Suriname has entered into a 10 calendar day grace period on USD15.6 million
principal and a 30-calendar day grace period on USD8.0 million interest coupon due June 30 on its
USD125 million 2023 bonds. In addition, on 1 July, the national authorities issued a "consent
solicitation" (dated 30 June) seeking to defer the 30 June principal payment on the bonds as well
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The "consent solicitation" announcement stated that "[a] group of institutional investors holding
approximately 83% of the outstanding principal amount of the 2023 Notes has expressed to the
Republic [of Suriname] their intention to support the Proposed Amendments and the Waiver…on
the terms and conditions detailed in the consent solicitation statement dated June 30, 2020…."

Fitch deems the consent solicitation to be the initiation of a default process, consistent with a 'C'
rating. If the majorities of creditors agree to the request at the thresholds speci ed in collective
action clauses (CACs), the principal deferral and easing of the 2023 bond's interest-rate
conditions would constitute a DDE under Fitch's criteria given that it entails a material reduction
in terms and is needed to avoid a traditional payment default. If creditors do not agree to the
request, a default would occur at the end of the grace period unless the payment is made.

Fitch is downgrading the ratings on Suriname's 2023 notes to 'C'.

The government's next foreign currency commercial debt service payments are USD25.4 million
interest on its 2026 USD bond due end of October, and USD22.7 million principal and interest on
the 2023 bond (excluding consent amendments) due end of December.

Fitch views the risk of a broader restructuring of foreign currency debt as high, re ecting the
government's high government debt burden, acute shortage of foreign currency and distressed
nancing conditions. Therefore, Fitch is downgrading the issue ratings on Suriname's 2026 notes
to 'CC'.

The downgrade of Suriname's Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to 'CCC' re ects the following
factors.

Suriname has a large structural budget de cit, which Fitch estimates have averaged 10.4% of GDP
over the past three years (2017-2019) and Fitch expects government debt/GDP to rise above
100% of GDP in 2020 from 80% of GDP in 2019.

Government of Suriname faces distressed nancing conditions of the domestic, Suriname dollar-
denominated debt and tight cash ow. The Central Bank of Suriname has provided material
nancing to the government during 2019-2020 and is the government's main creditor in Suriname
dollars. Fitch views the government's use of nancing from local nancial institutions to pay public
servant salaries at the end of June, according to local press, as another indicator of increasing
domestic nancing stress.

Suriname's external liquidity position is exceptionally tight. Suriname's international reserves have
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capital account, FX cash out ows have also been recorded. In April, the Central Bank of Suriname
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sold a portion of its Special Drawing Rights to enable the government to pay USD25.4 million
interest due on its USD550 million 2026 bonds. Net external debt is high at 57.9% of GDP at end-
2019, nearly double the current 'B' median.

Fitch expects the central bank to implement an exchange-rate adjustment in the near term, similar
to recent post-election periods. The parallel exchange market continues to show a material
premium over the of cial stabilized SRD-USD exchange rate. By Fitch's calculation, Suriname's
unencumbered international reserves fell 40% to USD187 million at the end of May since
December 2019, extending a 45% cumulative decline during calendar year 2019. Fitch's calculation
excludes USD411 million cash reserves of commercial banks and using Fitch's gold price
assumption.

Suriname's new government in transition, a coalition of four parties that include the Progressive
Reform Party (VHP) with the largest share of seats, General Liberation and Development Party
(ABOP), National Party of Suriname (NPS), and Pertjajah Luhur Party (PL), inherits formidable
economic and scal challenges. President Bouterse conceded the loss of his National Democratic
Party's (NDP) majority following the May 25 parliamentary election, paving the way for the new
parliament to sit June 29. The VHP chairman, Chan Santokhi, expects the body to select the new
president mid-July and the new cabinet will be appointed.

The leading VHP party has delineated broad macroeconomic objectives including strengthened
public nances and debt sustainability. However, meaningful scal adjustment reforms faced
counter-pressure during the preceding administration, which point to risks to the potential scal
adjustment, in Fitch's view. Peaceful public protests against electricity tariff increases immediately
following a large exchange-rate adjustment resulting in double-digit in ation contributed to the
derailment of Suriname's rst IMF program in 2016. The planned introduction of a value-added
tax to broaden the tax base was postponed inde nitely in 2018.

The downgrade of Suriname's Country Ceiling to 'CCC' re ects the deterioration of Suriname's
external liquidity and inconsistent macroeconomic policies, which Fitch views undermines the
conditions for timely private external debt service payment.

ESG Considerations:

ESG - Governance: Suriname has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of 5 for both Political Stability and
Rights and for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption, as
is the case for all sovereigns. These scores re ect the high weight that the World Bank Governance
Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Suriname has a medium WBGI
ranking at the 43rd percentile, re ecting a recent track record of peaceful political transitions, a
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convicted President Bouterse for the execution of 15 civic dissidents in 1982 during the former
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military government he led.
ESG - Creditor Rights: Suriname has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of 5 for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is highly relevant to the rating and is a key rating driver with a
high weight. The current rating action taken on Suriname re ects Fitch's view that a default event
is imminent.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

In accordance with its rating criteria, Fitch's sovereign rating committee has not utilized the SRM
and QO to explain the ratings, which are instead guided by the ratings de nitions.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables
based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score
equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow
for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the nal rating, re ecting factors within our criteria
that are not fully quanti able and/or not fully re ected in the SRM.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:

--Acceptance by creditors of a change in terms as for example outlined in the authorities' consent
solicitation for the 2023 eurobond, which would constitute a distressed debt exchange.

--In the absence of agreement by creditors, failure to make a payment within the applicable grace
periods.

--The rating for the Long-Term Local Currency IDR would be downgraded to 'CC' if a default
becomes probable and to 'C' if the government announces plans to restructure its Suriname
dollar-denominated debt.

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade are:

--Payment of the principal and interest due on the 2023 notes within the applicable grace periods.

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International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance and Infrastructure issuers have a
best-case rating upgrade scenario (de ned as ACCEPT
the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in
a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating
downgrade scenario (de ned as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative
direction) of three notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario
credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit
ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to
determine sector-speci c best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit
[https://www. tchratings.com/site/re/10111579].

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

--Fitch expects global indicators to move broadly in line with Fitch's Global Economic Outlook
forecasts.

--Fitch's baseline forecasts excludes the impact of Apache Corp. and Total S.A.'s nd of signi cant,
but as yet unquanti ed, oil reserves in Suriname waters on Suriname's balance of payments (given
the discovery's early nature) as well as the rst oil production (which has a roughly three to ve
year development timeline).

SUMMARY OF DATA ADJUSTMENTS

SUMMARY OF DATA ADJUSTMENTS

--Fitch analyses government operations on a cash basis (which includes net payments of supplier
arrears) using published Ministry of Finance statistics on arrears ows because this treatment
better explains the scale of the government's nancing needs and change in government
debt/GDP during 2015-2019, in our view, than the government commitment balance also
published by the Ministry of Finance.

--Fitch values government debt at reference period-end market exchange rates; this differs from
valuation according to Suriname's National Debt Law.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
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--The stock of government arrears to suppliers is not publicly disclosed. However, the ows of
arrears incurred and payments thereof are publicly disclosed.

--Financial soundness indicators of the banking system are released periodically for the IMF
Article IV reports, but not published on a regular basis.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Suriname has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Political Stability and Rights as World Bank
Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are highly relevant to the rating
and a key rating driver with a high weight.

Suriname has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Rule of Law, Institutional & Regulatory Quality and
Control of Corruption as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's
SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key rating driver with a high weight.

Suriname has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Creditor Rights as willingness to service and repay
debt is highly relevant to the rating and is a key rating driver with a high weight. The current rating
action taken on Suriname re ects Fitch's view that a default event is imminent.

Suriname has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Human Rights and Political Freedoms as the Voice
and Accountability pillar of the World Bank Governance Indicators are relevant to the rating and a
rating driver.

Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a
score of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the
entity, either due to their nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For
more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www. tchratings.com/esg.

RATING ACTIONS

ENTITY/DEBT RATING PRIOR

Suriname LT IDR C  Downgrade CCC 

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ST IDR C  Af rmed C 
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LC LT CCC  Downgrade B- Rating

IDR ACCEPT Outlook
Negative

LC ST C  Downgrade B 

IDR

Country CCC  Downgrade B- 



Ceiling

• senior LT CC  Downgrade CCC 


unsecured
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APPLICABLE CRITERIA
ACCEPT rating assumption sensitivity)
Sovereign Rating Criteria (pub. 27 Apr 2020) (including
Country Ceilings Criteria (pub. 01 Jul 2020)

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Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form


Solicitation Status
Endorsement Policy

ENDORSEMENT STATUS
Suriname EU Endorsed

ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES FOR UNSOLICITED CREDIT RATINGS


Suriname (Unsolicited)
With Rated Entity or Related Third Party Participation No
With Access to Internal Documents No
With Access to Management No

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Suriname - Short Term Issuer Default


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Suriname - Local Currency Short Term Unsolicited


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Suriname - Country Ceiling Unsolicited

Suriname USD 125 US86886PAB85 Long Term Rating Unsolicited

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