WomanUP!

Market Update

July 31, 2020

Leslie Appleton-Young
Chief Economist
California Association of REALTORS®
 U.S. economy contracted at the sharpest
rate on record
Real GDP Growth
10%

5%
-32.9%
0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30%

-35%
- 0 0 - 0 0 -0 1 - 0 2 - 0 3 -0 3 - 0 4 -0 5 - 0 6 -0 6 - 0 7 -0 8 - 0 9 -0 9 - 1 0 - 1 1 -1 2 - 1 2 -1 3 - 1 4 -1 5 - 1 5 -1 6 - 1 7 -1 8 - 1 8 - 1 9 -2 0
Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2

Recession Real GDP Growth

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF
REALTORS®
 Employment: Still down 15 million from pre-COVID

Total Nonfarm Employment (thousand)

155,000 Feb: 152,463

150,000
145,000
140,000
Jun:137,802

135,000
130,000
125,000
120,000
115,000

SERIES: Nonfarm Employment page

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau
3
 Jobless claims: Up second week in a row

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

8,000,000

,8 6 7 ,000
7,000,000 6 ,000
6,615

6,000,000
,000
5,237
5,000,000 00
,0
4,442
,000
4,000,000 3,867
,0 00 00
3,307 3,176
,0
3,000,000 ,6 8 7 ,000
2
4 4 6 ,00 0
2, ,000
2,123 ,000
1,897
2,000,000 ,000 540,000 2,000
1 ,5 6 6
1, 1,48 ,4 1 3 ,000 0,000 7,000,422,000,434,000
1 1,31 1,30 1 1

1,000,000
00 11,000 282,000
217,0 2
0
2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0
/ 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
29 7 14 1 8 4 11 8 5 2/ 9/ 16
/
23
/ 0 / 6/ 3 / 0 /
27
/ 4 / 1 / 8 /
25
/
2 / 3/ 3 / 3 /2 3 /2 4/ 4 / 4 /1 4 /2 5 / 5 /
5 / 5 / 5 /3 6 /
6 /1 6 /2 6 / 7/ 7 /1 7 /1 7 /

SOURCE: Department of Labor

page
4
 California unemployment claims rising again

California Initial Unemployment Claims

1,200,000

1,058,325.0

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000
289,594.0

200,000

43,385.0
0
2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0
/ 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
7 14 1 8 4 1 8 5 2/ 9 / 6 / 3 / 0 / 6/ 3 /
20
/
27
/ 4 /
11
/
18
/
3/ 3 / 3 /2 3 /2 4/ 4 /1 4 /1 4 /2 5 / 5/ 5 /1 5 /2 5 /3 6 /
6 /1 6 / 6 / 7/ 7 / 7 /

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF
REALTORS®
Consumer sentiment takes a step back in July

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60

Final Prelim
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF
REALTORS®
 Active listings plunged more than 40%

Year-over-Year % Chg
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50% -43.6%
1 5 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20
n - r - l - t - n- r - l - t - n- r - l - t - n- r - l - t - n- r - l - t - n- r -
Ja Ap J u c Ja Ap J u c Ja Ap J u c Ja Ap J u c Ja Ap J u c Ja Ap
O O O O O

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
7
 Closed sales above pre-crisis levels for nearly 2 months
Average Daily Closed Sales (Existing SFH only)
3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13
6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25
825

631

California

**Closed sales for the latest week will likely be revised upward due to recording delays.

page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
8
California housing market: sales down, price set
new record, supply tightened up
June 2020
-12.8% YTY Existing Home Sales
-12.9% YTD % change

Unsold Inventory Median Days on Sales Price to

Price Index Market List Price Ratio

$626,170 2.7 months 19 days 99.5%

+2.5% Y2Y -20.6% Y2Y 0% Y2Y 0.3% Y2Y

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF page

REALTORS® 09
Y T Y % C h g . in P e n d in g S a le s
Pending sales: biggest annual increase since April 2012

30%
21.2%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
10
 Pending sales up, but rebound a lot slower

Average Daily Pending Sales

3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25

1070

744

California

page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
11
New listings declined for the second week

Average Daily New Listings

3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18
7/25

1,068
929

California

page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
12
Fewer listing appointments last week

Q: Did you do any listing appointments this week?

May 22-25 May 29-Jun 1 Jun 5-8 Jun 12-15 Jun 19-22
Jun 26-29 Jul 3-6 Jul 10-13 Jul 17-20 Jul 24-27
34% 35%
32% 33% 33% 33% 32%
29% 30%
27%

Yes
page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
13
 New escrows down from early July

Q: Did you enter escrow this week?

May 15-18 May 22-25 May 29-Jun 1 Jun 5-8 Jun 12-15 Jun 19-22 Jun 26-29 Jul 3-6 Jul 10-13
Jul 17-20 Jul 24-27

31% 32%
29% 30% 30%
28%
25% 26%
24%
23%
19%

Yes
page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
14
 Fewer transactions closed last week

Q: Have you had a transaction close this week?

May 15-18 May 22-25 May 29-Jun 1 Jun 5-8 Jun 12-15 Jun 19-22 Jun 26-29 Jul 3-6 Jul 10-13
Jul 17-20 Jul 24-27

25% 26% 26%

24% 24%
21% 21%
19% 18%
17%
15%

Yes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
More transactions falling out of escrow

Q: Have you had a transaction fall out of escrow this week?

May 29-June 1 June 5-8 June 12-15 Jun 19-22 Jun 26-29
Jul 3-6 Jul 10-13 Jul 17-20 Jul 24-27

7%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
5% 5% 5%

Yes
page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
 Purchase applications continued to outpace 2019
Weekly Change in New Mortgage Purchase Applications Year-to-Year Change in New Mortgage Purchase Applications
20

15.0 40%
15
12.7
10.8
10 30%
7.2 7.4
6.5 5.9
5 4.6 20%
3.2
1.9 2.2

0 10%
0.0
-0.9 -1.4
-1.9
-5 -4.2 0%
-5.3
-6.7
-10 -10%
-10.3
-11.5
-15 -14.2
-20%

-20
-30%
0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 02 0 02 0 0 2 0 02 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 02 0 0 2 0 02 0 0 2 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
ar ar ar ar pr pr pr pr ay ay ay ay ay Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul
M M M M A A A A M M M M M 5 3 10 17 24
06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 0 12 19 26 0
-40%

All Purchase Loans Conventional Government

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF
REALTORS®
California REALTORS® generally feeling more optimistic

Q: Next week, do you think:

Jul 17-20 Jul-24-27
40% 37% 37%
35%
35%
31%
30% 28%
26%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Listings will increase Sales will increase Prices will increase
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF
REALTORS®
 Thank You
This presentation can be found on
www.car.org/marketdata
Speeches & Presentations
lesliea@car.org