CIE 308 Engineering Statistics 1

Welcome to CIE 308

Engineering Statistics
Seyed Omid Sajedi
Graduate Research Assistant
(Ph.D. Candidate)

ssajedi@buffalo.edu
Dissertation title:
Artificially Intelligent Systems for Automated Structural Health Monitoring

Office hours: Fridays, 3-4 PM (EDT)

Zoom link:
https://buffalo.zoom.us/j/99829640141?pwd=RGRuQUlIMXdzUUxwNFNvVW8zM3hvUT09
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TA
Kaiser Mahmood
Email: kaiserma@buffalo.edu

Office hours and recitations:

Mondays and Thursdays (10 AM – 1 PM, EDT)

Zoom link: TBA

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Week Date Day Online Interaction
Tuesday, May 26, 2020 5/26/2020 1

• 6 Week
Wednesday, May 27, 2020 5/27/2020 2
Thursday, May 28, 2020 5/28/2020 3 TA (10 AM:1 PM)
1st
Friday, May 29, 2020 5/29/2020 4 Instructor ( 3-4 PM)

Summer course
Saturday, May 30, 2020 5/30/2020 5
Sunday, May 31, 2020 5/31/2020 6
Monday, June 1, 2020 6/1/2020 7 TA (10 AM:1 PM)
Tuesday, June 2, 2020 6/2/2020 8
Wednesday, June 3, 2020 6/3/2020 9
2nd Thursday, June 4, 2020 6/4/2020 10 TA (10 AM:1 PM)
Friday, June 5, 2020 6/5/2020 11 Instructor ( 3-4 PM)
Saturday, June 6, 2020 6/6/2020 12
Sunday, June 7, 2020 6/7/2020 13
Monday, June 8, 2020 6/8/2020 14 TA (10 AM:1 PM)
Tuesday, June 9, 2020 6/9/2020 15
Wednesday, June 10, 2020 6/10/2020 16
3rd Thursday, June 11, 2020 6/11/2020 17 TA (10 AM:1 PM)
Friday, June 12, 2020 6/12/2020 18 Instructor ( 3-4 PM)
Saturday, June 13, 2020 6/13/2020 19
Sunday, June 14, 2020 6/14/2020 20
Monday, June 15, 2020 6/15/2020 21 TA (10 AM:1 PM)
Tuesday, June 16, 2020 6/16/2020 22
Wednesday, June 17, 2020 6/17/2020 23
4th Thursday, June 18, 2020 6/18/2020 24 TA (10 AM:1 PM)
Friday, June 19, 2020 6/19/2020 25 Instructor ( 3-4 PM)
Saturday, June 20, 2020 6/20/2020 26
Sunday, June 21, 2020 6/21/2020 27
Monday, June 22, 2020 6/22/2020 28 TA (10 AM:1 PM)
Tuesday, June 23, 2020 6/23/2020 29
Wednesday, June 24, 2020 6/24/2020 30
5th Thursday, June 25, 2020 6/25/2020 31 TA (10 AM:1 PM)
Friday, June 26, 2020 6/26/2020 32 Instructor ( 3-4 PM)
Saturday, June 27, 2020 6/27/2020 33
Sunday, June 28, 2020 6/28/2020 34
Monday, June 29, 2020 6/29/2020 35 TA (10 AM:1 PM)
Tuesday, June 30, 2020 6/30/2020 36
6th Wednesday, July 1, 2020 7/1/2020 37
Thursday, July 2, 2020 7/2/2020 38 TA (10 AM:1 PM)
Friday, July 3, 2020 7/3/2020 39
CIE 308 Engineering Statistics 4

Syllabus
• Prerequisites
▫ MTH 241. Passing of prerequisites is required and
enforced.

• Textbook (Mandatory)
▫ Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 4th edition, by
William Navidi (2015), McGraw-Hill.
ISBN 978-0-07-340133-1.

• Class format
▫ Recorded lectures, recitations, assignments, a final exam
CIE 308 Engineering Statistics 5

Grading Policy (May Change)

• Homework (10) 40%*
• Final exam 60%
* Bonus problems/activities might be considered for extra points
• TOTAL 100%
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Special Notes
• Homework (10 assignments, 40%)
▫ Assigned on Tuesdays and Fridays
▫ Late homework will not be accepted

• Exams (1 Final, 60% in total)

▫ Final exam: Cumulative, including everything, (Date and
time will be announced)
▫ NO MAKEUP EXAM ALLOWED except for extreme
cases (early notice and proof are needed for those
cases)
CIE 308 Engineering Statistics 7

Special Notes (Cont.)

• Recitations
▫ Participation is NOT required.
▫ What to do:
 Solve extra problems and some homework questions
 Review previous years’ exam questions for exam preparation
CIE 308 Engineering Statistics 8

Academic Integrity
Students should follow the UB Academic Integrity Policies as reminded
below:
General statement:
http://academicintegrity.buffalo.edu/

For civil engineering students:

http://engineering.buffalo.edu/civil-structural-
environmental/undergraduate/undergraduate-manual-and-
policies/ethics-and-academic-integrity.html

In addition, students should only collaborate within the limits prescribed

by the instructor. Any act in violation of the UB Academic Integrity
Policies is ground for academic penalties.
CIE 308 Engineering Statistics 9

Expected Learning Outcomes

• Compute and interpret descriptive statistics of a dataset by using both
numerical and graphical methods;
• Use knowledge of probability to solve engineering problems;
• Fit common types of discrete probability distributions to data sets and
make predictions;
• Fit common types of continuous probability distributions to data sets
and make predictions;
• Compute confidence intervals for population mean and variance from a
sample;
• Perform hypothesis tests for population means and draw conclusions;
• Compute covariance and correlation between data sets;
• Perform simple linear regression analysis to understand relationship
between random variables.
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Tools and Software

• Excel: mainly for in-class examples and HWs
• Use of Python or any other programming language is
highly encouraged but not mandatory. Some resources will
be provided for highly interested students.
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What is Probability?
• Probability: the extent to which an event is likely
to occur, measured by the ratio of the favorable
outcomes to the whole number of possible
outcomes.
• Implications:
▫ Pre-condition: the occurrence of an event is uncertain.
▫ What to do: to quantitatively estimate the chance of
occurrence.
CIE 308 Engineering Statistics 12

What is Statistics?
• Statistics: the science that deals with the
collection, analysis, and interpretation of
uncertain data
• In short, statistics is “the science of data”
CIE 308 Engineering Statistics 13

Image from
sandserifcomics
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Why Probabilities and Statistics?

• To deal with UNCERTAINTY
▫ To predict the likelihood of uncertain events
▫ To help understand the nature and pattern of variability
of a phenomenon
 To describe numerical data (descriptive statistics)
 To extrapolate (infer) information from existing data (inferential
statistics)
▫ To facilitate decision making under uncertainty (what
if…)
CIE 308 Engineering Statistics 15

Engineering Design Example 1

Bridge Design
Design purpose:
To design a new bridge that may last at least 50 years
Random variables:
▫ Loads: traffic flows, vehicle loads, …
▫ Bridge resistance: fatigue life of materials,
material behavior changes,…
▫ Environment: wind effects, earthquakes, …
▫ Design methods: imperfect for local conditions
Design:
▫ Need to consider the uncertain impact of these random variables
▫ Trade-off between the cost and the reliability
▫ Design outcome: a bridge with the probability of failure as **% in ** years
(e.g., the probability of failure in 50 years is 20%)
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Engineering Design Example 2

Highway Capacity Design
Design purpose:
To determine the capacity of a highway segment
with a life cycle of 50 years
Random variables:
▫ Travel demand: growing traffic flows
▫ Disturbances: traffic incidences, maintenance, …
▫ Environment: extreme weathers,…
▫ Design methods: imperfect for local conditions
Design:
▫ Need to consider the uncertain impact of these random variables
▫ Trade-off between the cost and the travel delay
▫ Design outcome: a highway segment with **% chance of light traffic and
**% of traffic congestion (e.g., the probability of traffic congestion is 40% on
daily basis)
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Engineering Design Example 3

Hydrologic Design
Design purpose:
▫ To determine the size of a main culvert
at the junction of a roadway and a stream
▫ The size of the culvert depends on the
high stream flow, which is a function of the rainfall intensity
Random variables:
▫ Annual rainfall intensity
▫ The prediction of the stream runoff Hydrologic design is almost
▫ Probability of flooding always subject to
▫ Design methods: imperfect for local conditions uncertainty.
Design:
▫ Need to consider uncertainty and risk
▫ Trade-off between the cost and the reliability
▫ Design outcome: a culvert with a probability of failure as **% (e.g., 10%)
CIE 308 Engineering Statistics 18

Engineering design examples 4

Construction Planning and Management
Design purpose:
▫ To estimate the duration of a construction project
while maximizing profits
Random variables:
▫ Labor
▫ Equipment
▫ Productivity
▫ Weather conditions
▫ Availability of material
▫ What other contractors offer
Design:
▫ What degree of conservativeness should the contractor exercise to
maximize the profit potential?
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What are Covered in the Course

• Sampling and Descriptive Statistics (Chapter 1)
• Probability Concepts (Chapter 2)
• Probability Distributions (Chapter 4)
• Confidence Intervals (Chapter 5)
• Tests of Hypotheses (Chapter 6)
• Correlation and Linear Regression (Chapter 7)
CIE 308 Engineering Statistics 20

An Example of Statistical Problems

• A data of UB students’ weight
▫ Suppose you are in charge of the data collection and
analysis.
▫ Among various information you collect, you are
particularly interested in weight.
▫ Budget constraint: due to the limited budget, you can
only afford to collect data from a subset of students (e.g.,
100 out of 30,000 students).
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An Example of Statistical Problems(Cont.)

• UB students’ health data
Related topics Chapter Questions
Sampling 1 How many students should be surveyed? Would the reported data
represent the true condition of all UB students?
Descriptive statistics 1 Average weight of the surveyed individuals? Variance across them?

Probability 2 % of underweight, health weight and overweight individuals? Histogram of

weight data?
Probability 4 Would the distribution of individual weight data look like a normal
distributions distribution or another type?
Confidence intervals 5 How confident would you be about the statement that the estimated
average weight from the data represents the true average of all UB
students?
Hypothesis testing 6 Is the average weight of females different from the one of males? How
confident would we be if we say yes?
Correlation and linear 7 Would weight be correlated to height? If so, what is the correlation and
regression what is the relationship between weight and height?
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Next Lecture

Sampling and descriptive statistics (Chapter 1)