Journal of Himalayan Earth Sciences 40 (2009)

October 08, 2005 Rupture along Jhelum thrust and1 post earthquake
scenario along Jhelum fault
Mahdi, Syed Kazim
Director Seismic Studies, WAPDA, Tarbela Dam Project, Pakistan
sspkazim@hotmail.com

Abstract

The Mw 7.7 Kashmir-Hazara earthquake on October 08, 2005, ruptured the southwest Jhelum
Thrust (JT) (also known as the Tanda-Muzaffarabad fault), which was inferred to be as active, in
a region where the river incises directly into the Murree sandstones on the west side of the valley
(footwall of JT), while it has abandoned large inset terraces along the east side (hanging wall of
JT). Following the occurrence of this earthquake, a large amount of new geophysical and
geological information is now available, providing key new insights into the regional geotectonic
framework and origin of the Kashmir-Hazara Syntaxis (KHS).

The JT is a recent offshoot of Pir-Panjal Thrust, which jumped southwards by about 20

km, perhaps in the last five million years. The fault plane solution implies predominant thrusting
towards the southwest with a slight component of right-lateral slip. The surface rupture of the
Kashmir-Hazara earthquake probably ranks as the most spectacular rupture documented to date
along the entire Himalayan range. The occurrence of Kashmir-Hazara earthquake confirms that
the active Jhelum Thrust (JT) and Jhelum Fault (JF), in a region located well north of the Main
Himalayan Frontal Thrust, accommodate roughly EW-oriented, present day shortening related to
“zipper tectonics” within the part of the KHS. Such EW shortening is a consequence of slip-
partitioning at a much greater scale, co-involving the Chaman Fault to the west and Karakorum
fault to the northeast. Many of the unexplained aftershocks with different focal mechanisms
reflect the shift of stresses towards the other active faults. One such shift is evident along the
Jhelum Fault which extends southwards from Muzaffarabad in a north-south direction, before
veering west towards Islamabad, going further down to Mangla and ending into the Salt Range.
The stresses indicate that another big earthquake might occur with a location propagating
southwards on the Jhelum Fault. Detailed seismic studies of the areas covering the Jhelum Fault
where big Structures have been planned for the near future and installation of seismic instruments
are highly recommended.

Key Words: Jhelum Thrust Kashmir-Hazara Earthquake, Kashmir Hazara Syntaxis, and Jhelum
Fault.

1
International Conference on Post Muzaffarabad Earthquake Scenario
November 05 & 06, 2007, Department of Earth Sciences
Quaid e Azam University Islamabad, Pakistan.
 Figure 1. Tectonic setting of the October 8, 2005, Kashmir earthquake. Rupture areas of major
Himalayan earthquakes documented from historical studies [1] and paleoseismic investigations
[4]. Shaded ellipses show estimated locations of ruptures in 1413, 1555 and 1905. Major active
faults, modified from [5] and [4], are shown in red. Dashed lines indicate approximate location
of blind thrust faults. Velocity of peninsular India relative to stable Eurasia computed from the
Euler pole of the Indian plate determined by Bettinelli et al. [6]. MFT: main frontal thrust fault.
MBT: main boundary thrust fault. IKSZ: Indus-Kohistan Seismic Zone [7]. (Ref: Internet
downloads)

1. INTRODUCTION

The Mw 7.7 (shallow depth 16.62 km) mega
earthquake, which struck Kashmir & Hazara
regions of Pakistan on October 08, 2005,
claimed over 0.1 million lives and destroyed
infrastructures whose rehabilitation will cost
more than five billion dollars. This is up till
now the most destructive earthquake to have
occurred along the Himalayan arc. Several
earthquakes during the 20th century have
almost certainly approached or exceeded
Mw 8.0, in particular the 1905 Kangra and
the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes [1], but
those did not cause as many victims as the
2005 episode (Figure-1). This is a sad
reminder that seismic weakness has risen
critically over the last few decades due to
the increase of population in the region and
probably inadequate awareness of seismic
hazard [2, 3]. The region was thus mostly
not ready for the occurrence of such a large
shallow earthquake and, given the
concentration of population in
Muzaffarabad, Balakot, and in scores of
other mountain villages, the earthquake
produced untold death toll and damages.
Epicenter of the Kashmir-Hazara earthquake
is located at the western periphery of the
Himalaya, where the arc meets the
Karakorum, Pamir, and Hindukush ranges.
The physiography of the range, as well as
tectonic structure defines a syntaxis, called
the Kashmir Hazara Syntaxis (KHS),
outlined by the hairpin rotation of the Main
Boundary Thrust (MBT). The MBT is a
most important fault bounding the
Himalayan range that has thrust
metasediments of the Lesser Himalaya over
the Tertiary molasses of the Himalayan
foreland [4]. Active deformation in the area
results from the 3 cm/yr northward notch of
the northwestern Indian Peninsula into
Eurasia (Figure-1). Along the northwestern
Himalaya, a fraction of that junction,
estimated to about 1.4 cm/yr [5], is absorbed
by thrusting perpendicular to the range. In
this paper the scenario along the Jhelum
fault is discussed after the mega earthquake.
2. REGIONAL GEOLOGY
In Kashmir - Hazara region of Northern
Pakistan the orogen is composed of three
main tectonostratigraphic terrains (Figure-
2), the Asian plate to the north, the Indo-
Pakistan plate to the south, and the Kohistan
island arc sandwiched between. The
Kohistan arc can be divided from the Asian
plate by the Northern or Shyok Suture and
from the Indian plate by the Main Mantle
Thrust (MMT). The Asian plate Karakorum
is divided into the Northern Sedimentary
terrain of Paleozoic and Mesozoic
Formations, the Karakorum Batholiths of
Cretaceous to Miocene age, and the
Kohistan arc, consists of Late Cretaceous
and Eocene plutonic belts, and pyroxene
granulites, calc-alkaline volcanic,
amphibolites, and minor metasediments. The
Indian plate can be sub-divided into three
tectonic unit’s viz. (from north to south
these are) (1) an internal metamorphosed
unit, (2) an external un-metamorphosed or
low grades metamorphosed unit, and (3) the
foreland basin sediments.
The internal unit consists of cover and
basement rocks. The basement rocks are
predominantly high-grade gneisses; the
cover rocks are predominantly greenschist to
amphibolites grade metapelites and
metapsammites metamorphosed during the
Himalayan orogeny. The internal zone is
separated from the external zone un-
metamorphosed to low-grade metamorphic
Precambrian sediments and dominantly
Mesozoic to Eocene Tethyan shelf
sediments by the Panjal Thrust (PT). Farther
to the south, the MBT separates these rocks
from the Tertiary foreland basin deposits.
The Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) delineates
the southernmost extent of the foreland
basin fold and thrust belt.
The more than 8 km thick red bed Balakot
Formation in the KHS as a steeply north
dipping, normal homoclinal stratigraphic
succession, conformably overlying the
Paleocene-aged shallow marine Patala
Formation and Lockhart Limestone. The
Balakot Formation is truly variably
deformed and folded by a series of tight
folds (wavelengths and amplitudes of I km).
The Patala and Lockhart Formations
unconformably overlie the Late Precambrian
to Cambrian Abbottabad Formation, which
forms the core of the Muzaffarabad
anticline. The lower part of the Balakot
Formation is structurally imbricated and
isoclinally folded with the Patala Formation,
which in turn is in thrust contact with the
overlying Abbottabad limestones. The entire
package is complexly faulted, with
systematic top to the southwest thrust shear
sense. Therefore, in summary, the Balakot
Formation red beds lie in thrust contact with
the Paleocene aged shallow marine Patala
Formation and Lockhart Limestone below,
and are tectonically intercalated with an
underlying dark gray marl formation.
Jhelum Fault is a NE dipping strike-slip
fault following the western margin of HKS
bend. Rocks belonging to Miocene,
Cambrian and Pre-Cambrian periods
exposed along its trace are highly deformed
due to recurring shear zones. Individual
blocks of Panjal Volcanic and Triassic
limestones have been found dragged for
several kilometers southward. An
accumulative left-lateral offset of about 31
km is indicated on the western limb of the
Syntaxis. It apparently dislocates from the
Main Boundary Thrust and terminates at the
eastward continuation of some of the
geological structures of North West
Himalayan Fold and Thrust Belts. These
tectonic relationships indicate Jhelum fault
as the youngest major tectonic feature in the
syntaxial zone.
3. TECTONOCS OF KASHMIR
HAZARA EARTHQUAKE
Monitoring by the local Tarbela seismic
network around the KHS has revealed an
alignment of seismicity, called the Indus
Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ) [10]. The
IKSZ strikes parallel to the north-western
Himalaya, but extends beyond the HKS.
This seismicity extends northwestwards the
belt of seismic activity that follows the front
of the entire Himalaya. This is an indication
that northwest-trending Himalayan
basement structures extend beyond the
syntaxis and that the change in the strike of
the MBT is a rather superficial feature,
probably related to the infracambrian salt
[10].
The fault that ruptured during the October
08, 2005 Mw 7.7 earthquake is a thrust that
has been identified characteristically along
the Jhelum valley from Muzaffarabad to
Garhi and farther south [10]. Before the
earthquake this south-west thrust was not
accurately mapped on the 1/50,000 scale
geological maps (trace mostly along the
Jhelum, with a dip towards west!), except in
the instant vicinity of Muzaffarabad where it
evidently emplaces Precambrian (mostly
white-grey dolomites) capped by early
Eocene nummulitic limestone on top of the
schistosed Murrees (Figures 3 & 4). When
visited in the field by the author & collogues
the JT stands out undoubtedly in the
geomorphic landscape of the middle-Jhelum
valley. Thus it is more justified to be called
as Jhelum Thrust (JT). Previously it has
been mapped and identified as Tanda-
Muzaffarabad fault [11]. However, at that
time just the northern stretch of the fault was
assumed to be active.
It is certainly the west-directed thrusting on
the JT that has made the Jhelum valley
strongly asymmetric: the river incises in a
straight line into the Murree sandstones on
the west side of the valley (footwall of JT),
while it has abandoned large inset terraces
along the east side (hanging wall of JT)
because it keeps being enforced
southwestwards by the rise of hanging wall.
 Figure 3. Geology and Seismotectonic of Kashmir Hazara Region
Near Thotha, such fluvial terraces, which
include far-traveled boulders, stand more
than 200 meters over the riverbed. Tributary
catchments east of the river, where mountain
heights reach 3200 meters, are well
developed, while they are nearly
insignificant along the west bank, where
there is a less relief (≤ 1400 meters). This is
because deep incision is promoted by the
rise of the JT’s hanging wall. Just north of
Muzaffarabad, the thrust steps leftwards
across the Neelum, continuing into the
Kunar valley alongside high faceted spurs to
no less than Balakot. It might extend farther
than west, north of Manshera. As discussed
afterward, the steps at the Jhelum crossing is
one place where some of the most
remarkable cumulative seismic
displacements (uplifted terraces) on the JT
are observed. These steps (Figure-2) are
interpreted to reflect offset of the JT by the
Jhelum Fault (JF), which is a confirmed
active fault [12].
The JT is less well-known geological than
geomorphic feature, because it cuts mostly
across rocks of similar age. This may
explain, in part, why it had not been clearly
documented and mapped up till now. In
cross section, it dips eastwards below a large
hanging wall anticlinorium of schistosed
Murree red-beds, whose escalation it has
orchestrated. Only in the vicinity and then
scarcely, dose this anticlinorium’s core
exhumes the Precambrian substratum of the
red beds, near Muzaffarabad. This indicates
that the JT is very youthful feature (possibly
only a few million years old) [15, 16].
Undoubtedly the JT match up neither to the
Main Frontal Thrust (MFT), Main Boundary
Thrust (MBT), Main Central Thrust (MCT)
and nor to other “Dun” thrusts which have
 Figure 4. SAR-Radar Image of Kashmir Hazara Region [Ref. Internet download]
been mapped farther West. Somewhat it
coincides with a segment of the well known
Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone (Figure 5),
lateral equivalent of the principal ramp of
the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) in
Nepal. As confirmed by the outstanding
evidence of surface rupture, described in the
later topics, it is now definite that at the
discussed location (unlike in Nepal), the JT
reaches the surface instead of remaining
blind. The idea that thrusts like JT should be
blind everywhere, is so deep-seated in most
minds, that till date no surface rupture had
yet been realistically mapped, and most
landscape disturbances had been interpreted
to reflect slope instability and mass-wasting.
4. SOURCE & KINEMATICS OF
KASHMIR HAZARA EARTHQUAKE
The epicenter of Kashmir-Hazara
earthquake was computed by the Seismic
Studies Program (SSP), WAPDA Mangla
Dam Project (MDP) with an uncertainty of
± 1 km at Lat. 34.540 North and Lon. 73.590
East, placing it near the surface trace of the
Pir-Panjal thrust north of Neelum River
[16]. The focal depth is 16.2 Km. and on
Figures 3, 4 & 5, it lies exactly on the JT-
IKSZ blind fault, below the Pir-Panjal trace
of the MBT, consistent with the epicenter
location [16]. The Kashmir Hazara
Earthquake (KHE) of October 08, 2005, is
thus clearly an event that activated only the
JT, somewhat upwards and southwards of its
Inferred intersection with the Pir-Panjal
MBT (Figures 3 & 4). This may be taken as
credible idea that the later is now inactive,
having been superseded by the JT.
Moment of the earthquake was projected to
0.3445E+ 21 (Nm) [Ref. Internet download]
that match to a moment magnitude of Mw
 Figure 5 Orientation of Jhelum Thrust & Jhelum Fault
order of 7.7. The rupture time was computed
as ≈ 30 sec. Seismic Studies Program (SSP)
WAPDA, Mangla and several other groups
(Figure 6) came up with fairly well
constrained Fault Plane Solution [12]. The
best fit for the attitude of the nodal plane
coinciding with the fault plane yield a rather
well constrained azimuth of ≈ 3300, and
somewhat less constrained dip of ≈ 35-400
towards the NE. It is in amazing agreement
with the JT surface trace mapped in the
field. The scrap of fault that slipped during
the earthquake may be approximated by an
ellipse 50-70 km. long in the NW-SE
direction, and 20-30 km. wide in the
transverse direction. The length of this pair
is in fair conformity, with the length of the
fault along which major surface deformation
is observed in the field, from Balakot to the
mountains south of Hattian
(50-60 km., up till 70 km). Fault Plane
Solutions computed by various groups
indicate thrust faulting with a slight lateral
component [16]. In view of the regional
tectonics, aftershock activity, fault plane
dipping to NE should be the causative fault,
and the lateral strike-slip component of the
faulting implies dextral motion of the fault.
The unexplained aftershocks rupture of
other faults having different focal
mechanisms. Of particular interest the
aftershocks that lie in the West of JT and on
either side of Jhelum river valley
downstream of Muzaffarabad, They lie in
the area crossed by the other major active
fault of the region, the Jhelum fault, which
extends southwards of Muzaffarabad in the
NS direction, before veering west towards
Murree and Islamabad.
 Figure 6 Focal Mechanism of Kashmir Hazara Earthquake. [Ref. Internet downloads]
Regarding the mechanics and quantity of
faulting, the Fault Plane Solution implies
predominant thrusting towards the SW with
a slight component of right-lateral slip
(≤10%). The maximum slip on the fault
plane was on the order of 6 meters, with
most of it in the top 10 to 5 km of the crust.
As presented later, these results are in
excellent agreement with those
independently obtained from satellite
geodesy, particularly Synthetic Aperture
Radar Interferometry (InSAR), as well as
with surface rupture evidence derived from
fieldwork carried out by the author and
colleagues.
In the field it was observed that the
earthquake caused considerable uplift, on
the order of 1 to 2 meters of ground surface
within a ≈ 10 km wide belt following the JT
trace from ≈ Lat 34.02 N to 34.60 N. This
upward motion is now readily understood to
Characterize incremental growth of the
Neelum anticlinorium, which is indeed most
simply interpreted as large ramp anticline,
heaved and folded by repetitive seismic slip
on the JT, in keeping with geological and
geomorphological interpretations. It is such
unabated vertical uplift that explains the
prominent incision of tributary streams on
the NE side of Jhelum River between Garhi
and Muzaffarabad.
The consistent, rather well constrained
kinematic parameters of the earthquake
confirm that the JT is a major active fault,
possibly the more important of the two
regional active faults that meet at
Muzaffarabad. Although there is still no
direct information on the average slip rate
on the thrust, the occurrence of the Kashmir-
Hazara earthquake, with many meters of
slip, suggest that this slip rate might be
significantly high [12].
5. STRESS CHANGES INDUCED BY
KASHMIR-HAZARA EARTHQUAKE
The occurrence of Kashmir-Hazara
earthquake confirms that the active Jhelum
Thrust and Jhelum Fault, in a region located
well north of the Main Himalayan Frontal
Thrust (which runs along the southern front
of the Salt Ranges), accommodate generally
EW oriented, present-day shortening related
to “zipper tectonics” within the tightest part
of the KHS. Such EW shortening is an
outcome of slip-partitioning at a much
greater scale, co-involving the Chaman Fault
to the west and Karakorum fault to the
northeast [16].
From the locations of aftershocks it is
observed that greater part of the aftershocks
of the Kashmir-Hazara earthquake presents
increased stresses north of Balakot and south
of Hattian. Shinkari seismic station installed
by the WAPDA Seismic Observatory during
1973 effectively detected the IKSZ very
close to its location during 1973-78. Since
the October 08, 2005 earthquake and till
date clusters of events are being recorded all
over the IKSZ. Such stress increases may
have brought the Kotli-Riasi Thrust, to the
south, and the Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone
ramp north of Balakot nearer to rupture. The
effect is seen secondary at Kotli, but quite
considerable north of Balakot. Many
aftershocks remain unexplained because
they fall in lobes of decreased Coulomb
stress. In such areas, thrust with mechanisms
similar to the Kashmir-Hazara earthquake is
now less likely to rupture. These aftershocks
thus most likely reflect rupture of other
small faults with different focal
mechanisms. Of particular interest is the
concentration of aftershocks due west of
Jhelum Thrust, along and both sides of
Jhelum river valley downstream from
Muzaffarabad. They lie in the area crossed
by other major active fault of the region, the
Jhelum Fault (JF), which extends
southwestwards from Muzaffarabad in a NS
direction, before veering west towards
Murree and Islamabad.
Field observations by the author and
collogues indicate that the JF, whose
geomorphic signature is sharper than that of
the JT, marks the base of the steep, ≈ 1-2
km-high range-front that has forced the 1600
southward hairpin turn of Jhelum River just
south of Muzaffarabad. Its ≥ 50 km-long
trace cuts and offsets left-laterally nine west
bank tributaries of the river. Unlike the JT, it
dips steeply westwards and is a major
geological contact (Murree stretch of MBT),
along which the Proterozoic Hazara slates
are thrust over the Murree red-beds. Its
present-day kinematics (mostly left-lateral
slip) makes it different from JT, requiring
clockwise rotation (by at least ≈ 600) of the
maximum horizontal stress west of Thotha.
The Jhelum Fault (JF) is located at a
distance of about 50 km East of Islamabad.
This fault was reported by original
researchers to extend along Jhelum River
from north of Muzaffarabad to near Jhelum
and further southward to Chaj Doab area.
During recent studies it was investigated
whether this fault extends southward up to
Jhelum or not. Oil and Gas Development
Company Ltd. (OGDCL), has mapped a
fault parallel to Jhelum River up to Palala
Mallah, beyond which it takes a southwest
bend and extends parallel to other faults (Dil
Jabba, Lehri) of the area as a thrust fault.
The unexplained aftershocks of the Kashmir
Hazara earthquake are in fact due to the
stresses loading the JF. When adapted to the
left lateral mechanism of this fault, the
calculations indicate that its northernmost,
north-south striking segment has indeed
being brought considerably closer to the
left-lateral strike-slip rupture, with a 15-20
bars increase in such stresses. This may be
taken to specify that, in years to come,
another ≈ 7.5 earthquake might nucleate
near Muzaffarabad, with a dislocation
propagating southwards on the JF [15, 16].
6. SEISMICITY OF JHELUM FAULT
Instrumental recording of the earthquakes
started during 1904. The number of seismic
stations remained small in South Asian
region until 1960 when the installation of
high quality seismograph under World Wide
Standard Seismograph Network (WWSSN)
increased the quality of earthquake
recording. The Seismic Studies Program
(SSP) of WAPDA, Mangla, has prepared a
comprehensive catalogue of earthquakes
since 1960. It has collected seismic data
from the Mangla, Tarbela, USGS and ISC.
With the help of catalogue many research
studies and project have been done. In one
of the studies [14], based on their
homogeneous tectonic and seismic
characteristics the area around Mangla has
been divided into six seismic zones viz.
MMT, MBT, Riasi, Hazara, Salt Range and
Jhelum Thrust Zone (JTZ). The data for
each zone has been complied through
FORTRAN IV computer program
SEISMOTECTONIC, written by Mahdi
et.al. in 2003 [15]. The data indicates a lot
of seismic activity along the three seismic
zones lying in the NE portion of Mangla.
The seismicity along JTZ, before the major
earthquake of October 08, 2005, shows a
moderate behavior (Table-1).
7. ABNORMAL EARTHQUAKS
ALONG JFZ
For this study and to keep the earthquake
locations accurate/homogenous the 10 km
area on both sides of Jhelum fault is known
as Jhelum Fault Zone (JFZ). By studying the
instrumental seismic data (since 1960) along
JFZ [12], a quiescence of magnitude greater
than 5.0 earthquakes is observed (Table-1).
Seismicity is mostly concentrated along the
northern and southern portions of JFZ, while
its central segment shows significant gap in
seismicity. However, during 1999 and 2000,
south of Muzaffarabad near tunnel, active
mudflows occurred along the JFZ [12].
After the mega Kashmir Hazara earthquake
of October 08, 2005 the landslides,
mudflows, and uplifted, tilted, and deformed
river traces are observed along the JFZ from
Balakot to Mangla. The Holocene river
gravels are aligned parallel to the brittle
shear zone of the fault. The fault shows the
Holocene (< 0.5 Ma) rupture[16]. The
successive Holocene uplift along the Jhelum
River and Ambore faults caused tilting of
the upper and lower Chatter river traces.
Seismic data computed by SSP, WAPDA,
Mangla seismic network, indicate that the
massive earthquake has reactivated the
Jhelum Fault. Within two years of the
massive earthquake more than 1500 seismic
events (micro and macro) of magnitude
ranging from 1.0 to 5.3 have been located
along the JFZ area. The seismicity is
observed to align not only along the mapped
portion of JFZ, but also extends north and
south of this mapped zone [12].
On March 10, 2006 an earthquake
measuring 5.3 on Richter scale was felt with
Intensity V at Mangla and VI in Mirpur.
Around the epicenter its intensity was VII
and was located at 33.19 N and 73.97 E, just
20 km east of Mangla. In the epicentral area
of Afzalpur major cracks/collapses in
buildings were reported. The Fault Plane
Solutions (FPS) exhibited that the
earthquake originated due to the seismic
activities along the JFZ. It was followed by
a series of aftershocks within 45 days, five
of them (M = 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 4.6 and 4.8),
were felt in and around Mangla/Mirpur with
maximum intensity of IV on MMI. Later on
June 02, 2006 an earthquake (M = 4.5)
presenting a FPS like JFZ was felt around
Mirpur with Intensity IV and III at Mangla.
Even very recently during June 2007 two
earthquakes of M > 4.5 having locations
along JFZ were felt in Mangla and Mirpur.
It is a clear indication of strain buildup along
the JFZ. The presence of active mudflows
after the massive October 08, 2005
earthquake, many located events and
significant gap in seismicity along JFZ,
suggest that the major earthquake (M = 6 to
8) can occur in near future. This earthquake
will affect the areas along the JFZ, from
Muzaffarabad to Mangla/Mirpur and Salt
Range / Kalabagh.
TABLE-1

MAGNITUDE FREQUENCY DATA

JHELUM THRUST ZONE DURING 1960-2005*

Magnitude Number Of Cumulative Number Of Cumulative Number Of

Seismic Events Seismic Events greater than the Seismic Events/Year
given Magnitude (45 yrs period)

0.5 1 985 21.888

0.6 2 984 21.866
0.7 6 982 21.822
0.8 5 976 21.688
0.9 14 971 21.577
1.0 7 957 21.266
1.1 10 950 21.111
1.2 14 940 20.888
1.3 12 926 20.577
1.4 16 914 20.311
1.5 22 898 19.955
1.6 24 876 19.466
1.7 33 852 18.933
1.8 39 819 18.200
1.9 49 780 17.333
2.0 69 731 16.244
2.1 42 662 14.711
2.2 49 620 13.777
2.3 43 571 12.688
2.4 40 528 11.733
2.5 37 488 10.844
2.6 45 451 10.022
2.7 41 406 9.022
2.8 48 365 8.111
2.9 33 317 7.044
3.0 28 284 6.311
3.1 32 256 5.688
3.2 25 224 4.977
3.3 27 199 4.422
3.4 19 172 3.822
3.5 16 153 3.400
3.6 18 137 3.044
3.7 16 119 2.644
3.8 15 103 2.288
3.9 7 88 1.955
4.0 10 81 1.800
4.1 9 71 1.577
4.2 10 62 1.377
4.3 7 52 1.155
4.4 5 45 1.000
4.5 9 40 0.888
4.6 7 31 0.688
4.7 7 24 0.533
4.8 8 17 0.377
4.9 5 9 0.222
5.0 3 4 0.088
5.1 1 1 0.022
5.2 0 0 0.000
5.3 0 0 0.000
5.4 0 0 0.000
5.5 0 0 0.000

*Data before the mega earthquake of October 08, 2005

The future strain buildup, uplift rates, slip
rates, recurrence intervals, and seismicity in
the areas along the JFZ, need to be
monitored continuously in order to avoid
major human disaster like the October 08,
2005 earthquake. For this purpose the
existing seismic networks in the area need to
be upgraded and more instruments may be
installed along future dams and allied
structures. More Strong Motion
Accelerographs (SMA’s) may also be got
installed along existing and future critical
structures. Most of the commercial &
residential structures in Mirpur/Mangla and
surrounding areas along the JFZ are not
constructed according to Building Codes.
New Building Codes have recently been
approved by the Government of Pakistan
and there is an urgent need for the
implementation of the Building Codes in
those areas.
8. CONCLUSIONS
The October 08, 2005 Kashmir Hazara
earthquake originated along the Jhelum
Thrust (JT), which is a recent offshoot of
the Pir-Panjal Thrust (PPT). Field rupture
observations indicate that it is not a blind
fault as known before. Location of abnormal
number of aftershocks till date verifies that
the mega earthquake imposed increased
stresses on the Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone
and Jhelum Fault Zone, which can result in
another major earthquake in the near future.
The high rise buildings and Dams should be
equipped with Strong Motion
Accelerographs and Seismographs. New
Building Codes should be implemented
during future constructions carried out in
the area.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The author is thankful to all those
colleagues who joined him during the post
earthquake field studies. Also the
observations and guidelines of seniors
during the preparation of this work is highly
appreciated and acknowledged. Most of the
data used was obtained from online sources
of ISC and USGS and also from the
WAPDA Mangla, seismic observatory,
where the author served as Deputy Director
during the October 08, 2005 earthquakes
and recorded the mega earthquake with
most of the aftershocks till a period of
twenty months.
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