David A.

Rosenberg December 24, 2010

Chief Economist & Strategist Economic Commentary
drosenberg@gluskinsheff.com
+ 1 416 681 8919

MARKET MUSINGS & DATA DECIPHERING

Breakfast with Dave IN THIS ISSUE

While you were sleeping: a
BREAKFAST WITH DAVE IS TAKING A BRIEF HOLIDAY AND WILL RETURN ON sea of red across most
JANUARY 3, 2011, RARIN’ TO GO. equity markets overseas;
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING bulls outnumber bears by
the widest margin since
Before we get started, I want to take the opportunity and wish you a very Merry October 2007; “risk on”
Christmas and a Happy Kwanzaa (for those who celebrate it — after all, it is a trade going on in the FX
little late to tell people to have a Happy Chanuka!) and all the best for 2011. To market
health, happiness and prosperity — especially in risk adjusted terms. The skinny on yesterday’s
U.S. economic data flow. At
With regard to some areas for investment focus for 2011 that would seem to be the margin, the results
“economy proof”, I can think of three: exposure to companies that will benefit added some comfort for the
from merger activity (where the corporate cash is likely to go), farm incomes (in growth bulls:
a full fledged bull market — see page 20 of Barron’s), and oil/mining services • initial jobless claims came
(an exploration/excavation boom is already baked in to the cake in the coming in roughly as expected
year). While the equity market has turned in a simply stunning performance with • nominal consumer
virtual non-dash stop advances since Labour Day, it does appear as though a lot spending up and
of froth has come to the fore — sentiment measures, the VIX index, and the households are drawing
put/call ratio, all strongly suggest that in the very short term time, investors have down on their saving
become as enthusiastic about the macro economic outlook as they were • inflation data was stellar
towards the tail end of 2007. The rest is history. It took a tremendous amount
• consumer sentiment in
of courage to fight the tape back then as it most assuredly is the case today. December highest in six
months
For the here and now, we are finishing up the week in the red across most equity
• the ECRI leading index
markets overseas (the ones that were open at least). The Shanghai index is
just poked it nose above
down yet another 0.7% and that deserves mention given its leading the zero line
characteristics for global cyclical assets, including equities in general as well as
commodities. Emerging market equity funds are now posting their first net However …
outflows since May. Meanwhile, the Baltic Dry Index continues to make new • headline data on durable
lows — to little fanfare. goods a tad misleading
• results mixed for buying
We are told constantly not to fight the Fed and not to fight the tape, but we have climate for homes and
news for you — last year’s rally in December was not exactly a harbinger of what cars
was to come by August when the S&P 500 was down for the year and off 14% • housing remains in
from the interim peak. We went into 2010 with 5% U.S. GDP growth in the bag, sickbay
V-shaped visions, and the Fed exit strategy about to be set in motion. It was not
until Ben Bernanke reinstated the Greenspan put at a different strike price did
Mr. Market climb off the bottom end of the range through the final four months
of the year.

Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.

Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. is one of Canada’s pre-eminent wealth management firms. Founded in 1984 and focused primarily on high net
worth private clients, we are dedicated to meeting the needs of our clients by delivering strong, risk-adjusted returns together with the highest
level of personalized client service. For more information or to subscribe to Gluskin Sheff economic reports, visit www.gluskinsheff.com
December 24, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE

The degree of complacency is even more acute now than it was a year ago. The
latest weekly American Association of Individual Investors show 63.3% bulls and Bank of Canada is really
a mere 16.4% bears — this is the widest margin since … October 2007, when caught between a rock and
the major averages hit their all-time highs. The VIX is back to April 2010 levels, hard place
which again is when the market hit its nearby peak. The equity put/call ratio has
collapsed to the lows for the year. Margin debt has begun to expand rapidly.
The S&P 500 is embarking on its best December in 19 years and there have
been the grand total of three down-days so far, which is incredible — not to
mention having now recouped all the post-Lehman collapse losses.

According to our pal Howard Silverblatt at S&P, the index has risen in 14 of the
past 17 weeks — this last happened in 1972, by the way (and in what was year
six of a classic 16-year secular bear phase). Meanwhile, everyone seems to
detest the Treasury market even though there is not a shred of evidence that the
Fed is going to tighten policy for years and the core PCE inflation rate on a three
month basis is a mere 30 basis points above the zero-line. This is Japan all over
again, and the return to consumer frugality will very likely re-assert itself once
the holiday season is behind us — with the data getting a big assist this year
from some very favourable seasonal factors.

To start off the day, even with the softer tone to the equity markets, we have a
“risk on” trade going on in the FX market where “defensive” currencies like the
USD, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are faltering. This, even in the face
of Fitch’s downgrade of Portugal to A+ from AA- and citing rising recession risks
and a more troublesome financing environment for the government and the
banks. Copper is up 0.4% today and 27% for the year and the chart frankly
looks asymptotic at this point.

CHART 1: NET SPECULATIVE LONGS IN COPPER SOARS

Non-commercial long minus short positions in Copper
(number of contracts)
60000

40000

20000

-20000

-40000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics
Shaded region represent periods of U.S. recession
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff

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December 24, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE

We have to add that in the Canadian context, the Bank of Canada is really
caught between a rock and hard place. The domestic economy is clearly With the U.S. economy
sputtering with yesterday’s tepid monthly GDP number pointing to little better operating on government-fed
than 2% annualized for Q3, which is far below the 2.6% BoC projection and steroids, there really is nothing
follows on the heels of that paltry 1% advance in the second quarter. much that is truly organic
about this statistical recovery
Both growth and inflation are falling short of forecast and there is little the Bank
can do with regard to the overvalued Canadian dollar, which is trading closer to
par and has clearly transcended the positive terms-of-trade effect from firm
commodity prices. The Bank would be loathe to cut rates again for fear of
reigniting the housing bubble but if: (i) we see CMHC step up to the plate and
tighten guidelines, (ii) the BoC is successful in “moral suasion” insofar as it
pertains to incentivizing the banks to better monitor their own credit scoring, and
(iii) we start to see some renewed slowdown signs south of the border in coming
months, then it would not surprise us at all to see the markets reprice Canadian
monetary policy for an easing as opposed to a tightening. And if that is the case,
rarely has there been a time that a 2.44% yield on the 5-year GoC note and
1.68% yield on the 2-year will have looked so attractive as they do today.

Fixed income investors should note that if the market moves to the view of the
BoC being on hold, then historical mean reversion would suggest potential a 20-
25bps rally in the 5-year Canada bond; at least 75bps if investors were to ever
price in the view of a swing in policy towards an accommodative posture.

THE SKINNY ON YESTERDAY’S DATA FLOW

We got a flurry of U.S. data releases yesterday that, at the margin, added some
comfort for the growth bulls.

Initial jobless claims came in roughly as expected at 420k on a seasonally

adjusted basis for the week of December 18, down 3k from the prior week. The
4-week moving average is at 426k and this time last year it was sitting at 479k,
so the pace of firings has clearly receded sharply. The issue at this time is really
one of hiring and going beyond part-time help.

For the consumer, we did see personal income manage to eke out a 0.3% MoM
gain in November and this occurred even in the face of a tepid 0.1% inch-up in
organic wages & salaries (flat in real terms). Then again, with the economy
operating on government-fed steroids, there really is nothing much that is truly
organic about this statistical recovery.

That gap between the +0.3% in total personal income and the +0.1% in
wages/salaries (work-based pay) came down these items:

Farm incomes surged 7% MoM or at an eye-popping 127% annual rate (now this
is organic … both literally and figuratively).

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December 24, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE

CHART 2: FARM INCOME SURGING

United States
Farm Income Farm Income
(US$ billions, seasonally adjusted annualized rate) (year-over-year change, US$)

70 30

60
20

50
10

40
0

30

-10
20

-20
10

0 -30

-10 -40
60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08

Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff

Interest income jumped 1.1% MoM or nearly a 14% annual rate. Really, even at
current yield levels?

Dividend income rose 0.6% MoM (over a 7% annual rate — this is a key theme
but typically these proceeds get re-invested, not spent at the Dollar Store).

Rental income spiked 0.7% MoM (8.5 % at an annual rate — multi-family is the
one part of the real estate market that looks healthy).
This is the sort of gap between
Unemployment insurance benefits rebounded 1.9% MoM or at a 26% annual earnings and expenditures we
rate — how can we forget about this source of government support? were starting to see unfold in
August 2007 — who knew
Nominal consumer spending was up 0.3% and this followed a nice 0.5% gain in what lay ahead a mere four
October, and because there was no retail inflation to speak of last month that months down the road?
nominal gain translated into a 0.3% “real” advance. This means that with one
month to go, real consumer spending is set for at least 3.5% (at an annual rate)
growth this quarter, which is indeed remarkable, and that in turn means 3%+ for
real GDP. What is fascinating is how quick the consumer has been drawing down
her/his savings rate — from 6.3% in June, to 6.1% in July, to 6.0% in August, to
5.7% in September, to 5.4% in October and now 5.3% as of November. That is a
sign of growing confidence, or perhaps more recently the influence of the fabled
equity ‘wealth effect’, but only time will tell over the sustainability.

All I can tell you is that the growth in nominal personal disposable income came
at a 2.4% annual rate since June and is running at half the pace of consumer
spending. Just as a warning, this is the sort of gap between earnings and
expenditures we were starting to see unfold in August 2007 — who knew what
lay ahead a mere four months down the road?

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December 24, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE

In terms of the items that sold well in the PCE data in November, it was rather
broad-based — sporting goods, clothing, toys, cable, sundries, jewellery, books,
pharmaceuticals, movie theaters, theme parks and magazines. Air travel, hotels,
casino gambling, tobacco, autos, furniture and restaurants lagged well behind.

The inflation data were stellar and over time will prove to be constructive for the
Treasury market -- the core PCE deflator came in at +0.1% MoM in November
and this dragged the YoY trend down to a record low 0.8%. The three-month
trend is down to a 0.3% annual rate and the six-month trend is now at 0.6% so if
anything, despite recurring doses of radical fiscal and monetary stimulus,
underlying inflation is still in decline despite the statistical recovery now officially
into its eighteenth month. In other words, if the YoY rate morphs into the 3- and
6- month trends, we will be talking about “real” long-term yields of 4%. That is a
very juicy inflation-adjusted rate, fiscal shenanigans notwithstanding.

CHART 3: CORE PCE INFLATION FALLS TO RECORD LOWS

United States: PCE Price Index excluding Food and Energy:
(year-over-year percent change)
12

10

0
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff

With respect to the durable goods data, the headline was a tad misleading —
down 1.3% for orders and down 0.3% for shipments, both down for the second
month in a row. Core capex orders, however, were at +2.6% MoM though that
did not completely offset the 3.6% decline in October. Ditto for core shipments
(ex-defense, ex-aircraft), which rebounded 1.0% but did not recoup the 1.2%
October drop. Autos and computers/electronics were the laggards in terms of
new orders, but what gains we saw were led by primary metals and machinery,
the “old economy” industrials. The order books for metals and machinery
expanded more than 1% in November. All in, fairly good news for capital
spending but it is clear that growth is on a moderating path. Not only that, but
as the chart below illustrates, inventories are now running well ahead of
shipments, which could pose a cloud over the first-quarter production outlook.

Page 5 of 11
December 24, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE

CHART 4: INVENTORIES RUNNING WELL AHEAD OF SHIPMENTS

United States: Inventory/Shipments Ratio: Durable Goods Industries
(ratio)

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Haver Analytics

Shaded region represent periods of U.S. recession

Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff

The final reading on consumer sentiment (à la the University of Michigan) came

in as expected, rising to 74.5 from the initial reading of 74.2. The December
reading is the highest level in six months, although to put things in perspective,
the current level of 74.5 is closer to the average recession level of 73.9 than the
average expansion level of 90.2. Nonetheless, tis’ the season to be jolly.

Regionally, the Northeast and the Midwest saw the most confident consumers,
with the Northeast seeing a 6.7 point surge in confidence, to 74.9 — highest
since June — and the Midwest saw confidence jump 8.2 points to 79.8 — the
highest since Jan 2008. What’s interesting is that despite the payroll tax
package that was announced two-weeks ago, consumer sentiment for those
making $75k or less a year only rose 4.8 points in December to 71.8 — which is
still lower than the level seen back in June.

The results were mixed for the buying climate for homes and cars. Buying
conditions for homes fell to 150 in December from 154 in November, and is at a
three month low, while buying conditions for autos rose to a four month high in
December to 135 from 130 in November.

Page 6 of 11
December 24, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE

CHART 5: HOUSING BUYING INTENTIONS FALL TO THREE MONTH LOW

United States: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey:
Current Conditions for Buying Houses
(relative score)
180

160

140

120

100
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: University of Michigan /Haver Analytics
Shaded region represent periods of U.S. recession
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff

As for inflation expectations, they remain well anchored with the median 12
month inflation expectation stuck at 3.0% and the 5-10 year inflation
expectations sticky at 2.8%.

CHART 6: INFLATION EXPECTIONS REMAIN GROUNDED AT 2.8%

United States: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey:
5-10 Year Expectations: Annual Change in Prices: Median Increase
(percent)
4.8

4.4

4.0

3.6

3.2

2.8

2.4
95 00 05 10
Source: The University of Michigan /Haver Analytics
Shaded region represent periods of U.S. recession
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff

Housing remains in sickbay. Yesterday, we also got the new home sales figures
for November and it came in below expected, rising 5.5% MoM to 290,000
annualized units — the market was expecting home sales to hit the 300k mark.
On top of that, the October data was revised lower to 275k from an initial
reading of 283k.

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December 24, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE

Regionally, the results were mixed. The Northeast and the Midwest showing
declines (new home sales in the Northeast fell off the cliff in November, plunging
27% on top of the 9% drop in October), while the South and the West rebounded
(the West saw new home sales surge 37% in November, which fully reverses the
24% drop in October). The inventory of new homes continues to be pared down,
falling 2% MoM in November and is now down six-months in a row, and the
months’ supply is falling, now at 8.2 months. However, given the massive run-
up we saw during the bubble days, more is likely to come — the 8.2 months’
supply figure may look good on the surface, but this is still below the historical
norm of 6.2 months.

CHART 7: MONTHS’ SUPPLY STILL ABOVE HISTORICAL NORM

United States: New Single-Family Homes: Months’ supply
(months)

12.5

10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics

Shaded region represent periods of U.S. recession

Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff

On a positive note, the ECRI leading index just poked its nose above the zero line
for the first time since May. Of course, when it was sliding in the abyss in the
summer, the mantra from the experts was to ignore the indication, but now of
course it’s fashionable to focus on it since the trend is moving in the “right”
direction.

The front page of today’s NYT just about says it all: Experts Citing Rising Hopes
for Economy.

To which we drum up Bob Farrell’s rule #9:

“When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.”

The New York Times actually did it again with this bold prediction: December’s
Upswing is Expected to Continue.

Yet again, from Mr. Farrell, this time from rule #3:

“Excesses are never permanent.”

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December 24, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE

Finally, the front page of today’s WSJ runs with this: Job Offers Rising as
Economy Warms Up. What isn’t mentioned in this article is the tsunami of
layoffs in the state and local government sectors are going to offset the new jobs
in the limited amount of the sectors that were mentioned. Also, have a look at
the other article on the front page of the WSJ titled Pension Push Taxes Higher.
In a nutshell, there is no fiscal stimulus in 2011 — the tax cut package cobbled
together very quickly a few weeks ago will merely act as an antidote to the
relentless risk in taxation at the municipal level. Moreover, it will be interesting
to see how the new Congress behaves — it got elected on fiscal austerity
pledges.

Meet the new boss. Not the same as the old boss.

Page 9 of 11
December 24, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE

Gluskin Sheff at a Glance

Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. is one of Canada’s pre-eminent wealth management firms.
Founded in 1984 and focused primarily on high net worth private clients, we are dedicated to the
prudent stewardship of our clients’ wealth through the delivery of strong, risk-adjusted
investment returns together with the highest level of personalized client service.

OVERVIEW INVESTMENT STRATEGY & TEAM

As of September 30, 2010, the Firm
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Gluskin Sheff became a publicly traded
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We offer a diverse platform of investment
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1 September 30, 2010
Income).
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$1 million invested in our Canadian
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over the same period.
$1 million usd invested in our U.S.
Equity Portfolio in 1986 (its inception
date) would have grown to $11.8 million
usd on September 30, 2010 versus $9.6
2 In terms of asset mix and portfolio
million usd for the S&P 500 Total
Return Index over the same period.
Notes:
Unless otherwise noted, all values are in Canadian dollars.
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We have strong and stable portfolio
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We have a strong history of insightful collectively the largest
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For long equities, we look for companies
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$1 million invested in our
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share price below our estimate of intrinsic
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date) would have grown to
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$9.1 million2 on
For corporate bonds, we look for issuers
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of interest and principal, and yields which
S&P/TSX Total Return
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Index over the same
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period.
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2
Our success has often been linked to our
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Page 10 of 11
December 24, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
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