How India can be leader in

fight against Covid-19

with close to forty one lakh people infected and nearly three lakh
deaths around the world, as well as a global economic slowdown, Covid-19 is
creating a challenging test for humanity. India has seen over 71,000 cases and
2293 deaths so far, as it goes into a lockdown until May 17 imposed by the
Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India.

How will a country of 1.3 billion people with a high density of population,
millions of habitants in rural villages and urban slums avoid a large-scale
community spread of coronavirus?

Tackling this unprecedented challenge requires a systematic approach and the

mobilization of all stakeholders to respond. Here’s how the Indian
government, the private sector and common people in their individual
capacity can contribute.

How the government can ramp up its efforts

The Indian government has so far followed a step-by-step model and been on the
front foot with early screening at airports from mid-January onwards, initiating
travel restrictions and in collaboration with states, applying restrictions on events
and on places of social gathering including restaurants, theatres and gyms. Such a
response ensured that there was no panic among the citizens and avoided
inconvenience to the extent possible. The Indian government has also evacuated
many of its citizens and those of its neighbors from high-risk countries, including
China, Japan, Iran and Italy. This is not the first time that India has evacuated its
citizens and those of other countries during such crises to ensure their safety and
security.

Equally noteworthy are the various public awareness campaigns. Prime Minister
Narendra Modi has shown leadership in mobilizing the heads of government of the
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and that of the G20
to share reliable information, best practices and support each other in fighting this
pandemic.

Yet there is still much more to be done to improve health response systems and
boost the economy.

Currently, India has completed among the lowest coronavirus tests per million
population. The limited testing capability in India for Covid-19, led primarily by
the apex laboratory at the National Institute of Virology at Pune, has now been
extended to 52 viral research and diagnostic laboratories spread across the country.
The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) only recently allowed private
labs to test, but it is unclear whether even 48 hours after such an order, private labs
began testing. The government should also facilitate the regulatory environment to
empower Indian firms to produce test kits. South Korea has been an example, with
companies producing test kits in a little over two weeks compared to months.

The government will need to take steps to protect those most vulnerable to Covid-
19, such as those with prior conditions or without insurance. Italy’s National
Health Authority this week stated that more than 99 per cent of the country’s
coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions:
more than 75 per cent had high blood pressure, about 35 per cent had diabetes, and
a third suffered from heart disease. The scope of Ayushman Bharat, India’s
flagship insurance/assurance scheme launched with the vision of universal
healthcare and leaving no one behind, should be expanded to include the 40 per
cent ‘missing middle’ who are neither covered by private insurance nor by the
government, so that any Covid-19-related expenses are covered by the
government.
There is also a pressing need for economic measures to stabilize and stimulate the
economy and protect people’s jobs and livelihoods. According to the International
Labor Organization, Covid-19 could render 25 million people unemployed and
many more underemployed by virtue of reduced wages and working hours. This is
especially critical in India where a large part of the population is either self-
employed or dependent on daily wages for their its subsistence.

Given India’s infrastructure around direct benefits transfer (DBT), the Modi
government could consider depositing cash on a monthly basis for the foreseeable
future. This would ensure the poor can take care of their basic needs and help
stimulate demand in the Indian economy. Many countries, including Canada and
the United States, have announced economic measures for individuals and
businesses, and India could take inspiration from those. This is especially true for
the urban poor and here the Jan Dhan accounts could be a good opportunity to
transfer cash. With over 150 million beneficiaries with accounts in urban bank
branches, such a transfer can reach a large segment of this population. Equally, the
government currently has over 430 schemes that use DBT and can be targeted to
reach specific groups such as pensioners, bereaved and unemployed, among others.

An important consideration is the harvest season for the Rabi crops due in the next
1 week. This is a sensitive population given the already distressed farmers. The
government will need to balance the economic impact of any potential curb in
farming and the heath and societal impact of a spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

This unique situation also presents a case for stronger alignment between India’s
monetary and fiscal policy. As has been the case with other G-20 economies such
as Australia, the government can use this opportunity to work closely with the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ensure that the necessary fiscal stimulus is
supported by further loosening of monetary policy. This can provide necessary
bandwidth to both corporate India as well as retail borrowers.

The government must also continue to ensure constant, consistent and credible
communication to provide necessary public health guidance and to allay any fears
and panic among the populace. A good example of such a communication is in the
state of Kerala, which successfully managed the Nipha virus in 2018. Here, chief
minister Pinarayi Vijayan and health minister K.K. Shailaja have been giving
a press conference every day at 7 pm to update and educate the state’s citizens. In
many ways, Kerala is a benchmark in pandemic preparedness and action and other
states can emulate its successful ways.

This pandemic will likely highlight our state capacity or the gaps in it. From
trained medical professionals to manage the scale of Covid-19 to the ability of the
state to manage a crisis through a multi-ministry/department in an integrated way.

How the private sector can mobilize

The Indian private sector must proactively address the Covid-19 pandemic, said
Sanjiv Bajaj, Managing Director, Bajaj FinServ. Temperature scans and improving
personal and office hygiene are important. Also, we must assist in social and office
distancing by practicing work from home, creating adequate space between those
employees that are at work for critical activities, and ensuring proper care for our
colleagues who may get infected. Equally important is to continue to thoughtfully
serve our partners and customers and support the economy in these trying times.

ICMR has given the private sector its nod to support testing efforts and issued
guidelines to cap the price. The most significant contribution from the private
sector in this area will be to support testing at zero cost to the poor. The utilization
of corporate social responsibility (CSR) funds to fuel these efforts will help scale a
very significant stage in the containment of the pandemic.

Equally, personal protective gear, including hazmat suits and N95 respirator face
masks, are in short supply and this will only be exacerbated if and when large
number of citizens are infected. Businesses that have relevant manufacturing
capabilities can repurpose their manufacturing plants to contribute to the supply
chain of critical medical products the way French multinational and
conglomerate LVMH has for sanitizers and Zara has for face masks. Here in
India, Reliance Industries has built a 100-bed hospital in just two weeks dedicated
to supporting Covid-19 cases and many business leaders including Anand
Mahindra have pledged support in multiple ways.

Small businesses will be significantly impacted through this pandemic. This is

where businesses, philanthropists and investors can support coordinated efforts to
provide funding and mentorship to bring these companies back on their feet.

The private sector can also provide technological solutions to gather and use data
on travel patterns and health symptoms, and to leverage the smartphone
penetration in India to build contact tracing. For example, Singapore’s community-
driven contact tracing app “Trace Together” reduces dependence on memory and
identifies people who have been in close proximity within two meters for at least
30 minutes. The private sector can also support virtual medicine efforts to offload
hospitals and use telemedicine for remote monitoring of low- or mid-risk patients.

“Technology-enabled digital tools like virtual consulting will enable continuity of

care, especially in cases of non-communicable diseases at times such as these when
patients cannot visit their doctors for follow-ups,” explained Shobhana Khamenei,
executive vice chairperson of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited. “As of this
week, all our consultants are available via tele consults. This crisis has catapulted
the adoption of the digital in every sphere and will make the difference between
life and death and our capability to overcome this pandemic.”

Businesses have a responsibility towards their employees. Those employees who

are not on any permanent contract often become the first casualty of cost-cutting
measures and are the most vulnerable. It will be critical for businesses to ensure all
such employees continue to get paid and that companies can partner with the
government to ensure their health coverage.

Businesses should use this opportunity to invest in their digital capability and
trainings that allow for easier and efficient ways for their staff to work from home.
In the short term and in a scenario where we may not have the necessary healthcare
infrastructure, businesses can then offer their office space and facilities to the
health and healthcare community at the national, regional, local and hyperlocal
level.

In addition, it is important that banks, although under severe duress even before
Covid-19, consider measures especially for the most-hard-hit sectors, including
aviation, travel and tourism. A moratorium on debt for such companies and for
micro, small and medium enterprises would be very helpful.

Businesses and business leaders on social media also have a unique role to play in
quelling misinformation and providing clear and coordinated messaging from
verified sources, including the World Health Organization (WHO). One such
example that has been lauded by Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-
General of the WHO, is Indian mobile networks playing a 30-second coronavirus
information alert before the start of every phone call.

It will be increasingly important over the next days and weeks to convert intent to
action and support the fight against Covid-19 in a synchronized way. To bring the
business community together with other stakeholders, the World Economic Forum
(WEF) has launched the COVID Action Platform to galvanize the private sector
for collective action, protect people’s livelihoods and facilitate business continuity,
and mobiles cooperation and business support for the Covid-19 response.

How India can get back to work after

coronavirus lockdown
It is an understatement to say that our world has changed dramatically over the last
few months. The novel coronavirus pandemic has resulted in unimaginable loss to
the global economy and the loss of human lives has been unprecedented in an era
of global peace.
Not only are the numbers alarming but, the speed at which the challenges have
emerged is intimidating. Governments and health professionals are constantly
calibrating the response to this pandemic and frequent strategic adjustments are
being done.

We are now in lockdown, exploring novel medical treatments and are on the hunt
for a vaccine that will stop this virus in its tracks. And since the scenario is grim,
doctors, scientists, and governments are working on an accelerated mission mode.

Unprecedented losses

First, let us get an understanding of the economic impact of the novel coronavirus.
The Asian Development Bank has estimated that the global economic cost of the
virus is a whopping $2 to $4 trillion.
Going by the damages estimated by some legal firms, the figure goes up to an
unimaginable $6.5 trillion. Back home, the Indian economy is being battered as
well. Under complete lockdown less than a quarter of India's $2.8 trillion economy
is functional. We are estimated to lose over Rs 32,000 crore ($4.5 billion) every
day during the lockdown.

Huge human cost

While the impact of novel coronavirus on businesses has been devastating

worldwide, the human cost has also been staggering. In India, those with savings
and access to shelter and food have managed to weather the storm albeit with
difficulty.

However, the impact on a large proportion of the 40 million migrant laborer’s,

those who provide the muscle to power India's construction, agriculture and other
sectors, has been very disturbing.
After the extension of lockdown on April 14, in a desperate bid to get home, the
upheaval that the vast numbers of migrant workers grappled with, was tragic.
However, helped by local communities and government agencies, they have
managed to cope with the lockdown. The saga of their journeys will be told over
time and there will be plenty to learn from their experience.

First priority - defeating COVID-19

So, is there any light at the end of the tunnel, and where do we go from here? We
may be stating the obvious but it is worthwhile reiterating that the greatest
challenge before us is tackling the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The top priority is finding a way to defeat or neutralize the effects of the virus. All
other battles can be handled once we cross this particular challenge. Thanks to the
early response and integrated approach of containment that India initiated, has
outperformed most other countries in slowing down the pandemic.

Our frontline - the healthcare sector

As early as in February, the private health sector came forward and has been
working closely with the public sector. In an interesting development India ramped
up health education and leading organizations introduced online training for
COVID-19.

Healthcare professionals from around the world have been signing up for these
courses and a definitive is that e-training will be the next game-changer in
stretching the boundaries of care.
In addition to measures of containment and prevention, the big need is testing.
Nationwide, testing has ramped up quickly and more than half a million samples
have been tested as of April 22.
 Further across India, a total of 586 hospitals have been marked as dedicated
COVID-19 hospitals with the capacity of over 100,000 isolation beds and 11,500
ICU beds reserved for coronavirus patients.
Private sector hospitals have also created dedicated negative pressure beds for
COVID-19 patients and in an extraordinary step, the Indian Railways have
prepared train compartments to serve as isolation wards. Alongside, hotel chains,
corporate houses, and hospitals have partnered to convert hotel rooms into
facilities for individuals who need to self-isolate and be in quarantine.
Alongside, telemedicine has finally found its place in India's healthcare ecosystem.
Further to the recent approval of guidelines for telemedicine by the central
government, teleconsultation emerged as a godsend for patients who need to
consult with their doctors, without going to the hospital. In the near term, digital
health with its inherent potential to scale, offering care at a lower cost, will help
millions in need, and be a great tool to manage even the rising prevalence of non-
communicable diseases.
It is the people who build a sector and the brave hearts and protagonists of
healthcare - India's doctors, nurses, paramedics, technicians, administration, and
support staff have shown that they can rise spectacularly to the occasion. I am
hopeful that seeing medical professionals make so many sacrifices, the ugly doubts
and distrust in doctors and hospitals will be erased, forever.

The list is long and no sector has been spared by the COVID-19 pandemic, yet the
captains of industry are cautiously upbeat about the recovery.
Next, we must focus on re-booting the Indian economy. Over the past few years
there has been a decline in India's GDP growth rates and the problem has been
further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Indian economy is expected to languish in the 1% to 2% zone next year. When
the crisis ends, and when the economy starts running again, the first few countries
to get off the starting block will be at an advantage.
Can the industry manage to get up and start sprinting on its own? No, every
government in the world will have to lend their industry a hand. We in India will
need a high-octane financial boost. But we all know that governments have taken a
beating as far as tax revenues and foreign remittances are concerned. Therefore,
governments will have to focus on those sectors that will deliver the biggest bang
for the buck.

Getting India to work again

Luckily for us, our agricultural backbone that accounts for almost 14% of our GDP
can recover quickly and in fact, even grow next year.
But they must be supported by logistics and storage. The expected normal
monsoon this year will help the sector maintain its momentum.
Once the threat of the virus recedes, the service industry, the number one
contributor to our GDP will start cruising again. We cannot underplay the impact
of the COVID-19 pandemic but unlike geophysical disasters and wars, the physical
infrastructure of the industry has survived without damage.
Therefore, most industries can quickly become operational with a new work
culture, if they have the labor force back and the working capital to restart their
business.

Sectorial boost

The Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) sector, which contributes to

30% of India's GDP, is one of the key drivers of the Indian economy.
Today, almost all MSMEs are out of action due to the lockdown, they are unable to
pay their employees and several don't have the financial resources to re-start their
businesses.
The government is contemplating a Rs 20,000 crore relief package for this sector.
The other sectors that need help urgently are tourism, aviation, automobile, and
real estate.
These sectors will put people back to work and build some traction in the recovery
of our economy. This may all sound simple, but obviously there is no easy fix to
this unprecedented crisis.
What is most important for us is to get people safely back to work and that will be
possible only when we can provide the best possible healthcare to our citizens, as
there cannot be a lockdown on medical care, ever.

To address the need for dedicated COVID-19 hospitals and protect staff across
board, the hospitals have been making huge investments in PPEs, consumables,
even though they are grappling with a decline in OPDs, elective and international
patients.
Our economic recovery and rebound hinges upon ensuring that our population is
healthy and productive. Thus, it is paramount that the health sector is supported
generously, so that it becomes capable of delivering to its fullest potential in this
hour of great need.
Civilization has endured several crises in its history which we have put behind us,
we will overcome again. This too shall pass.