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Project scheduling with uncertain activity
times (Optimistic, Most likely, Pessimistic)
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Project scheduling with uncertain activity
times (Optimistic, Most likely, Pessimistic)
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4
Rows :  
 
Predecessor
Activity to tm tp
Activity
A - 3 3 3

B A 5 5 5

C B 12 12 12

D C 5 5 5

E C 8 8 8

F C 8 8 8

G D 7 7 7

H E,G 10 10 10

I F 7 7 7

J H 3 3 3

K H 6 6 6

L D,I 10 10 10

M J,K 9 9 9

N L 8 8 8

O N 2 2 2
SolutionHelp
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Project scheduling with uncertain activity times (Optimistic, Most likely,

Pessimistic)
A - 3 3 3
B A 5 5 5
C B 12 12 12
D C 5 5 5
E C 8 8 8
F C 8 8 8
G D 7 7 7
H E,G 10 10 10
I F 7 7 7
J H 3 3 3
K H 6 6 6
L D,I 10 10 10
M J,K 9 9 9
N L 8 8 8
O N 2 2 2

Solution:
Expected time of each activity,

Activi t t t te=to+4⋅tm
ty o m p +tp6
σ2= ( tp-

to6 ) 2

A 3 3 3 3 0
B 5 5 5 5 0
1 1 1
C 12 0
2 2 2
D 5 5 5 5 0
E 8 8 8 8 0
 F 8 8 8 8 0
G 7 7 7 7 0
1 1 1
H 10 0
0 0 0
I 7 7 7 7 0
J 3 3 3 3 0
K 6 6 6 6 0
1 1 1
L 10 0
0 0 0
M 9 9 9 9 0
N 8 8 8 8 0
O 2 2 2 2 0

The earliest and latest expected time for each activity is calculated by considering the
expected time te

Activit Immediate Duratio

y Predecessors n
A - 3
B A 5
C B 12
D C 5
E C 8
F C 8
G D 7
H E,G 10
I F 7
J H 3
K H 6
L D,I 10
M J,K 9
N L 8
 O N 2

Edge and it's preceded and succeeded node

Edge Node1 → Node2
A 1→2
B 2→3
C 3→4
D 4→5
F 4→6
E 4→7
G 5→7
d 5→9
I 6→9
H 7→8
J 8→10
K 8→11
L 9→12
d 10→11
M 11→14
N 12→13
O 13→14

The network diagram for the project, along with activity time, is
5
D(5 G(7 d(0) L(10
) ) I(7)
9 ) 12 N(8) 13
G(7
A(3 B(5 C(12 O(2
1 ) 2 ) 3 ) 4 F(8) ) )
6
E(8 G(7 O(2
) )
J(3) 10 )
H(10 d(0 O(2
7 )
8 ) )
M(9
K(6) 11 ) 14
Forward Pass Method
E1=0

E2=E1+t1,2 [t1,2=A=3]=0+3=3

E3=E2+t2,3 [t2,3=B=5]=3+5=8

E4=E3+t3,4 [t3,4=C=12]=8+12=20

E5=E4+t4,5 [t4,5=D=5]=20+5=25

E6=E4+t4,6 [t4,6=F=8]=20+8=28

{ }
E7=Max Ei+ti,7 [i=4,5]

{
=Max E4+t4,7;E5+t5,7 }
=Max{20+8;25+7}

=Max{28;32}

=32

E8=E7+t7,8 [t7,8=H=10]=32+10=42

{ }
E9=Max Ei+ti,9 [i=5,6]

{
=Max E5+t5,9;E6+t6,9 }
=Max{25+0;28+7}

=Max{25;35}

=35

E10=E8+t8,10 [t8,10=J=3]=42+3=45

{ }
E11=Max Ei+ti,11 [i=8,10]
 {
=Max E8+t8,11;E10+t10,11 }
=Max{42+6;45+0}

=Max{48;45}

=48

E12=E9+t9,12 [t9,12=L=10]=35+10=45

E13=E12+t12,13 [t12,13=N=8]=45+8=53

{ }
E14=Max Ei+ti,14 [i=11,13]

{
=Max E11+t11,14;E13+t13,14 }
=Max{48+9;53+2}

=Max{57;55}

=57

Backward Pass Method

L14=E14=57

L13=L14-t13,14 [t13,14=O=2]=57-2=55

L12=L13-t12,13 [t12,13=N=8]=55-8=47

L11=L14-t11,14 [t11,14=M=9]=57-9=48

L10=L11-t10,11 [t10,11=d=0]=48-0=48

L9=L12-t9,12 [t9,12=L=10]=47-10=37

{ }
L8=Min Lj-t8,j [j=11,10]

{
=Min L11-t8,11;L10-t8,10 }
=Min{48-6;48-3}
=Min{42;45}

=42

L7=L8-t7,8 [t7,8=H=10]=42-10=32

L6=L9-t6,9 [t6,9=I=7]=37-7=30

{ }
L5=Min Lj-t5,j [j=9,7]

{
=Min L9-t5,9;L7-t5,7 }
=Min{37-0;32-7}

=Min{37;25}

=25

{ }
L4=Min Lj-t4,j [j=7,6,5]

{
=Min L7-t4,7;L6-t4,6;L5-t4,5 }
=Min{32-8;30-8;25-5}

=Min{24;22;20}

=20

L3=L4-t3,4 [t3,4=C=12]=20-12=8

L2=L3-t2,3 [t2,3=B=5]=8-5=3

L1=L2-t1,2 [t1,2=A=3]=3-3=0

 (b) The critical