Theor. Appl. Climatol.
61, 9±18 (1998)
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Climate Change: A Case Study Over India
A. K. Sahai
With 2 Figures
Received April 15, 1998
Summary
A brief account of various causes of climate change in
recent decades and climate change trends in the Indian
region is presented. It is of great importance to determine
the in¯uence of human activities on the likely climate
change during recent decades. Local temperature is one of
the major climatic elements to record the changes in the
atmospheric environment caused by industrialization and
urbanization. It is mentioned in the literature that there is
either a cooling tendency or cessation of warming after the
late 1950s at most of the Indian industrial cities. A case
study of Nagpur, a centrally located city in India, is done to
understand and the possible cause of cooling. Nagpur is the
only city in India for which a long-term record of
temperature, for urban (Mayo Hospital) and relatively
suburban (Sonegaon Airport) area, is available. The study
of the diurnal asymmetry in maximum and minimum
temperatures indicates that the role of suspended particulate
matter dominates over that of increasing greenhouse gases.
1. Introduction
The variability of day-to-day weather is a
common topic of conversation everywhere
because of its direct, local and instant effect on
daily life. However, in the last few years
humankind's ever-expanding activities have
caused environmental changes that reach beyond
localities and regions to become global and there
is a growing awareness of issues such as the
enhanced greenhouse gas effect and depletion of
ozone layer. Therefore the common topic of
conversation now also includes changing climate
and the role of man's activities. Because there is
concern regarding the impact of climate change
on the survivability and future development of
the human species, the question is being asked as
to what extent the climate will change as a result
of man's activity. The answer to this question lies
in understanding the mechanisms of climate
change and how climate has behaved in the past.
Therefore a brief account of various causes of
climate change and the observed climate change
in few recent decades is presented in this
communication.
World population is increasing very rapidly. A
very important consequence of growing popula-
tion is urbanization and industrialization which
are spreading around the globe at an explosive
pace. A micro-scale example of climate change
is already occurring in urban areas. Local
temperature is one of the major climatic elements
to record the changes in the atmospheric
environment in these areas. Therefore, a case
study of Nagpur, a centrally located city in India,
is done to study the effect of urbanization and
industrialization in India. The study of asymme-
try in daytime and night-time temperature may
give some clue regarding the relative role of
warming due to increased greenhouse gases and
cooling due to increased concentrations of
particulate matter in the atmosphere.
10 A. K. Sahai
2. Main Causes of Climate Change
in Recent Decades
The driving force for weather and climate is
energy from the sun. The earth absorbs energy
(radiation) from the sun, mainly at the surface.
This energy is then redistributed by the atmo-
sphere and ocean and re-radiated to space at
longer wavelengths. The earth's climate has the
potential to be changed on all time scales by the
way in which short-wave solar radiation is
scattered and absorbed, and thermal infrared
radiation is absorbed and emitted by the earth-
atmosphere system. Any factor that alters the
redistribution of energy within the climatic
system (atmosphere, land, ocean, ice and bio-
sphere) will affect the climate. The main causes
of climate change in recent decades can be
summarized as:
2.1 Variation in Atmospheric Composition
(Mixing Ratios of Carbon Dioxide and Ozone,
Aerosols Loading, etc.) due to Volcanic
Eruptions and Human Activity
The atmospheric chemical composition is an
important determinant of its thermal budget. CO2
is a principal greenhouse gas which absorbs
signi®cantly long-wave terrestrial radiation.
Large changes in the total amount of CO2 in
the atmosphere would surely affect the climate of
the earth. Its concentration is increasing due to
the increased consumption of fossil fuel along
with industrialization. Various authors (Friedli
et al., 1986; Keeling et al., 1989; Neftel et al.,
1985; Boden et al., 1990; Lorius et al., 1990)
have computed the variation of CO2 in the past
two centuries and a strong correlation is observed
in the climatic record between average atmo-
spheric temperature and CO2 concentration.
The stratosphere is heated mainly through the
absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation by ozone.
Variations in the ozone distribution govern the
differential heating in the vertical which deter-
mines the static stability and to some extent the
dynamics of stratospheric motions and which in
turn are likely to be re¯ected in the thermal
structure and also the dynamical motions includ-
ing weather in the troposphere. The oxides of
nitrogen and chlorine are destroyers of ozone.
These oxides are injected into the stratosphere
through powerful volcanic eruption, nuclear
blasts, burning of aviation fuels, and on the
earth's surface through the use of agricultural
fertilisers, using chloro-¯uoro-carbons for refrig-
eration and other purposes. Recent studies (Wang
et al., 1993; Mohnen et al., 1993) have pointed to
the sensitivity of the climate system to vertical
changes of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone.
Changes in the aerosol content of the atmo-
sphere may occur either through volcanic
activity, changes in land use, or from the
emission of aerosols because of human activity.
The effects of the changes due to the ®rst two
types is direct; the aerosols either absorb or
re¯ect solar radiation directly. The effect of those
due to human activities are more likely to be
indirect. Emissions of sulphur compounds create
sulphate aerosols which act as effective nuclei
for the condensation of water drops in clouds.
In over-polluted areas, therefore, clouds will
contain more droplets. They will possess a higher
albedo, and thus will reduce the warming. Over
the past few years researchers (Charlson et al.,
1992; Kiehl and Brigleb, 1993 and Penner et al.,
1994) have suggested that historical changes of
anthropogenic aerosols have caused a climate
forcing of opposite sign, but of comparable
magnitude to the forcing due to CO2 and other
greenhouse gases.
2.2 Variation of the Land Surface
Characteristics due to Land use
(Deforestation, Deserti®cation, etc.)
The exponential growth of human population is
re¯ected in a progressively more severe impact
on the soil, water and plant resources upon which
all depend for survival. In turn it leads to a
variation of land surface characteristics due to
land use. The climate effects of overgrazing,
deserti®cation, deforestation, irrigation and var-
ious other agricultural practices all have their
roots in how the surface and atmosphere energy
budgets are modi®ed by these surface changes.
These surface changes affect surface albedo,
vegetation cover, surface roughness and the
hydrological cycle. Various authors (Nasrallah
and Balling, 1993; Otterman et al., 1993; Philips,
1993; Sud et al., 1993; Xue and Shukla, 1993;
Zektser and Loaiciga, 1993; Paton et al., 1995;
and Williams and Balling, 1996) have studied
 Climate Change: A Case Study Over India
these problems and concluded that (a) human
activities have increased the albedo in drylands
and this should have a direct effect of decreasing
temperature, precipitation and soil moisture, (b)
changes in vegetation cover depend on geogra-
phical location and climatic zone, which is
negatively related to albedo and temperature
and positively related to precipitation, (c) soil
moisture levels are directly related to vegetation
cover and precipitation and negatively related to
albedo and temperature. Recently Dale (1997)
has concluded that the role of land-use change is
much more effective on ecological variables than
climate change.
2.3 The Urban Heat Island
Extensive efforts have been made to calculate the
amount of temperature rise due to urban heat
island effect and to separate this `spurious noise'
from the larger, nonurbanized climate signal. It is
observed that about 0.05  C of the 0.45  C
warming seen over the last century may be
related to urbanization (Kukla et al., 1986; Karl
and Jones, 1989; Jones et al., 1990; Tayanc and
Toros, 1997). Today, urban observing stations are
excluded from calculations of mean global
temperatures. Ironically, in treating urban change
as a ``bias'' to be isolated and removed, we may
have been ignoring an important process (Chang-
non, 1992).
3. Climate Change Trends in the Indian Region
The works of various authors (Hingane et al.,
1985; Pant and Hingane, 1988; Thapaliyal and
Kulshrestha, 1991; Rao and Kumar, 1992;
Rupkumar et al., 1992; Srivastava et al., 1992;
Parthasarathy et al., 1993; Parthasarathy et al.,
1994; Rao et al., 1996) on climate change trends
in Indian regions in the past few decades can be
summarised as below.
(i) The annual mean surface air temperature
averaged over the land mass of India has
apparently warmed about 0.4  C in this
century.
(ii) The annual mean temperature showed a
0.15  C cooling from 1900 to 1920 rising
in 1920 until it became equal to the mean,
then falling 0.1  C in the 1930s. Contrary to
11
the subsequent fall of global temperature,
the regional temperature in India has shown
an increasing trend reaching a maximum in
the 1950s. In the latter 1950s, the tempera-
ture showed a falling trend which continued
to the mid seventies when warming began
again. The decades, 1971±80 and 1981±90,
have shown greater warming rates than
other decades.
(iii) The predominant warming has been in the
post-monsoon and winter seasons rather
than in the summer.
(iv) The signi®cant warming trends occurred
over the northern and southern parts of the
west coast, the interior peninsula (south of
20  N) and in the northern regions of the
country.
(v) The Indian summer monsoon has shown
remarkable stability over the past 120 years,
but some decadal variations and large
interannual variability occur.
4. A New Perspective on Recent Global
Warming
Greater attention is now being paid to the
manifestations of global warming in terms of
day-time and night-time temperatures i.e., max-
imum and minimum temperature trends, because
of their links to changes in cloudiness, humidity,
atmospheric mesoscale circulation patterns,
winds and soil-moisture which are likely to be
signi®cant over land areas.
(A) Global (Karl et al., 1991; Karl et al., 1993;
Mearns et al., 1995; Hansen et al., 1995):
Studies over most parts of the Northern and
Southern Hemispheric land masses have shown
that minimum temperatures have generally
increased more rapidly than maximum tempera-
tures, leading to a decrease in diurnal tempera-
ture range. A likely explanation is that day-time
convection distributes the heat over most of the
troposphere, which reduces the amount of sur-
face warming. The decrease in the diurnal
temperature range is possibly due to the increase
in the cloud cover, including low clouds. The
increase in cloud cover is indirectly related to the
observed global warming and increases of green-
house gases, related to the indirect effects of
increase in aerosols, simply a manifestation of
12 A. K. Sahai

natural climate variability or a combination of all
three.
(B) Indian region (Rupakumar et al., 1994):
The increase in the mean temperatures over India
has been almost solely due to the increase in
maximum temperatures with the minimum
temperature remaining practically trendless.
Consequently there is a general increase in the
diurnal temperature range over India, contrary to
the global trend.
5. A Case Study: Differential Changes
in Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
in Nagpur
5.1 Scope of this Study
Rupakumar and Hingane (1988) have studied
climate change in India, in the light of indus-
trialization and urbanization. In this study we
propose to extend the work on the temperature
changes due to urbanization considering the
asymmetric trend in maximum and minimum
temperature by using data from Nagpur, which is
a city in central India and can be thought to be
representative of India. Nagpur is the only city in
India for which long-term maximum and mini-
mum temperatures for urban (Mayo Hospital)
and relatively rural (Sonegaon Airport) sites are
available. Since the urbanization of Nagpur is
suf®ciently rapid, the difference in warming
between urban and suburban areas (Urban Heat
Island Effect) at Nagpur will also be studied.
5.2 Data and Data Processing
Monthly mean maximum and minimum surface
air temperatures were obtained from the India
Meteorological Department for Sonegaon Air-
port and Mayo Hospital situated in the sub-urban
and urban areas of Nagpur City, respectively. For
the suburban area, data were available from 1901
to 1992 and for the urban area station from 1952
to 1992. So the comparative study of warming
could use the suburban data between 1901±1951
and 1952±1992. The 1952±1992 data could be
used to compare suburban and urban area

Table 1. Linear Trends in Temperature

Month/Year/Season Temp. Trend ( C/100 yr)

Sub-urban Sub-urban Urban

(1901±1951) (1952±1992) (1952±1992)

January Max. 0.1 0.4 ÿ5.0

Min. 1.2 2.8 1.0
Mean 0.7 1.6 ÿ2.0
DTR ÿ1.1 ÿ2.3 ÿ6.0
May Max. 1.3 ÿ0.7 ÿ2.1
Min. 2.7 ÿ1.3 ÿ0.3
Mean 2.0 ÿ1.0 ÿ1.2
DTR ÿ1.4 0.6 ÿ1.8
Annual Max. 0.1 1.1 ÿ3.0
Min. 0.4 1.4 ÿ0.1
Mean 0.3 1.2 ÿ1.5
DTR ÿ0.3 ÿ0.3 ÿ2.9
Winter (DJF) Max. 0.8 ÿ1.0 ÿ4.7
Min. ÿ0.01 2.1 1.3
Mean 0.4 0.5 ÿ1.8
Pre-Monsoon (MAM) Max. 0.3 0.3 ÿ4.3
Min. 1.2 0.8 ÿ0.5
Mean 0.7 0.6 ÿ2.4
Monsoon (JJAS) Max. ÿ0.7 1.1 ÿ1.6
Min. ÿ0.01 0.3 ÿ1.8
Mean ÿ0.3 0.7 ÿ1.7
Post-Monsoon (On) Max. ÿ0.5 3.2 ÿ0.001
Min. 0.8 3.2 4.3
Mean 0.1 3.2 2.1
 Climate Change: A Case Study Over India 13

differences. The mean monthly diurnal tempera-

ture range (DTR) is de®ned as the difference
between the mean monthly maximum and
minimum temperatures. The monthly mean
temperature is de®ned as the arithmetic mean
of monthly maximum and minimum tempera-
ture. The representative months for Winter and
Summer are taken as January and May respec-
tively. Also the year is divided into four seasons
as follows: Winter (December, January, Febru-
ary), Pre-monsoon (March, April, May), Mon-
soon (June, July, August, September) and Post-
monsoon (October, November).

5.3 Results
5.3.1 The Differential Trends of Maximum
and Minimum Temperatures
A simple linear regression analysis was applied
to quantify the trend in temperature against time;
see Table 1 and Figs. 1 and 2. The values
obtained in Table 1 are sometimes as large as
5  C/100 years, which appears very high, but
since we are discussing a particular location, the
values agree well with Karl et al. (1993), Xie and
Cao (1996) and Tayanc and Toros (1997). The
following points can be noted from Table 1:
(a) In January, the DTR is less, due to a
signi®cant decrease in maximum tempera-
ture (5.0  C) for the urban area and an
increase in minimum temperature between
1901±1951 (2.8  C); and between 1952±1992
(1.2  C) for the suburban area. The mean Fig. 1. Variation of (a) maximum temperature and (b)
temperature in the suburban area increased at minimum temperature with trend (- - -) and mean (Ð) for
the rate of 1.6  C while that in the urban area January, May and Annual series. (Nagpur urban)
decreased at the rate of 2.0  C. In the
suburban area itself, the rate of warming (c) On an annual basis the mean temperature
between 1901±1951 was signi®cantly less decreased (1.5  C) in the urban area, due
than the warming between 1952±1992 due to mainly to the decrease in maximum tem-
the increase in minimum temperature. perature. In the suburban area the mean
(b) During May, in the suburban area, between temperature increased signi®cantly (1.2  C)
1901±1951 the minimum temperature between 1952±1992 and less so between
increased signi®cantly more than the maxi- 1901±1951; this increase results from
mum temperature, causing a decrease in changes in both maximum and minimum
DTR, while between 1952±1992 the mini- temperatures. The DTR decreased in both
mum temperature decreased signi®cantly urban and suburban areas but in the suburban
more than the maximum temperature, result- area it decreased due to an increase in
ing in an increase of DTR. In the urban area, minimum temperature; in the urban area the
the decrease in DTR is mostly due to the decrease was mainly due to a decrease in
decrease in maximum temperature. maximum temperature.
14 A. K. Sahai
(d) During the winter season in the urban area,
the mean temperature decreased (1.8  C) due
to a considerable decrease in maximum
temperature. In the suburban region the
mean temperature increased between 1901±
1951; this was due to an increase in maxi-
mum temperature and in 1952±1992, to an
increase in minimum temperature.
(e) During the Pre-monsoon season, the mean
temperature increased due to increases in
both maximum and minimum temperature in
the suburban area but the increase in
minimum temperature dominated. In the
urban area the features are almost the same
as in the Winter season except that the
minimum temperature also decreased.
(f) During the Monsoon season in the suburban
area, the mean temperature decreased
between 1901±1951 due to a signi®cant
decrease in maximum temperature but
increased between 1952±1992 due to a
signi®cant increase in the maximum tem-
perature. In the urban area the mean tem-
perature decreased (1.7  C) which is almost
equally contributed by decreases in both
maximum and minimum temperatures.
(g) In the Post-Monsoon season, the mean
temperature increased in both the urban and
suburban areas between 1952±1992, but in
the urban area this was solely due to an
increase in the minimum temperature; in the
suburban area it was due to increases in
Fig. 2. Variation of (a) maximum
temperature and (b) minimum
temperature with trend (- - -) and
mean (Ð) for Winter, Pre-mon-
soon, Monsoon and Post-mon-
soon series (Nagpur urban)
maximum and minimum temperature.
Between 1901±1951 the mean temperature
did not change much in the suburban
region.
5.3.2 Decadal Change in Temperature
The decadal average of minimum, maximum,
mean and DTR are given in Table 2. The
following features can be summarized from this:
(A) For the Suburban Area
(a) The 1940s and the 1980s were the warmest
decades with 27  C and 27.1  C mean
temperature respectively.
(b) Between these two decades, temperatures
decreased in the 1950s and the 1960s and
then started rising in the 1970s.
(c) The DTR decreased in January during the
1940s and the 1980s but in May it decreased
during the 1940s and was steady in the
1980s.
(d) In the 1940s there was a sharp increase in the
mean temperature trend in May but in the
1980s there was a sharp increase in January.
Thus the warming in the 1980s happened in
the Winters, but in Summers in the 1940s.
(e) In the 1940s the warming was due to changes
in maximum and minimum temperatures, the
minimum being more prominent while in the
1980s it was due principally to changes in
minimum temperature.
 Climate Change: A Case Study Over India 15

Table 2. Decadal Means of Temperatures ( C)

Month/ Temp. 1901±1909 1910±1919 1920±1929 1930±1939 1940±1949 1950±1959 1960±1969 1970±1979 1980±1989
Year [ C] [ C] [ C] [ C] [ C] [ C] [ C] [ C] [ C]

JAN Min. 13.2 12.7 13.5 13.0 14.1 12.7 12.3 12.1 14.0
(13.5) (13.0) (13.9) (14.3)
Mean 21.0 20.5 21.1 21.2 21.3 20.8 20.4 20.3 21.4
(21.5) (21.2) (21.3) (20.8)
Max. 28.9 28.3 28.6 29.4 28.5 28.9 28.4 28.5 28.8
(29.4) (28.6) (28.8) (27.4)
DTR 15.7 15.6 15.1 16.4 14.4 16.2 16.2 16.4 14.8
(15.9) (14.7) (15.0) (13.1)
MAY Min. 27.8 27.3 28.3 27.9 29.2 28.5 27.2 27.9 28.1
(28.5) (28.4) (29.0) (28.6)
Mean 35.2 34.6 35.3 35.1 36.2 35.7 34.7 35.2 35.4
(35.7) (35.5) (35.7) (35.6)
Max. 42.7 41.8 42.3 42.4 43.2 42.8 42.1 42.6 42.8
(43.0) (42.6) (42.4) (42.5)
DTR 14.9 14.6 14.0 14.5 13.9 14.3 14.9 14.7 14.7
(14.5) (14.2) (13.4) (13.9)
YEAR Min. 20.3 20.2 20.4 20.1 20.7 20.2 19.9 20.2 20.5
(20.9) (21.1) (21.5) (21.0)
Mean 26.8 26.6 26.9 26.7 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.1
(27.5) (27.5) (27.5) (27.1)
Max. 33.4 33.0 33.3 33.2 33.4 33.5 33.6 33.5 33.6
(34.0) (33.8) (33.5) (33.2)
Values in the bracket ( ) are for Urban area and without brackets are for Sub-urban area.

(B) For the Urban Area
(a) The 1980s were the coldest decade since the
1950s.
(b) The decadal mean annual temperature fell
suddenly in the 1980s. This fall was due
mainly to Winter daytime cooling.
(c) Overall the DTR decreased.
The trends in the decadal means of tempera-
ture for the urban and suburban areas agree well
with the linear trend.
5.3.3 The Urban Heat Island Effect (UHIE)
The city of Nagpur has expanded considerably in
recent years. It is known that, due to the very
high levels of energy consumption, a signi®cant
amount of waste heat is stored in the walls of
buildings, streets etc., which is released during
the night thereby increasing minimum tempera-
tures.
The temperature difference between the urban
and suburban areas in Nagpur is investigated in

Table 3. Difference between Urban and Sub-urban Temperatures (
T ˆ T [Urban] ± T [Suburban])
Month/Year
T 1950±1959 [ C] 1960±1969[ C] 1970±1979 [ C] 1980±1989 [ C]
JAN Min. 0.8 1.6 1.7 0.3
Mean 0.7 0.8 1.0 ÿ0.6
Max. 0.5 0.2 0.3 ÿ1.4
DTR ÿ0.3 ÿ1.5 ÿ1.4 ÿ1.7
MAY Min. 0.0 1.2 1.1 0.5
Mean 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.2
Max. 0.2 0.5 ÿ0.2 ÿ0.3
DTR 0.2 0.7 ÿ1.3 ÿ0.8
YEAR Min. 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.5
Mean 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.0
Max. 0.5 0.2 0.0 ÿ0.4
16 A. K. Sahai
this subsection. This difference
T (temperature
in urban area ± corresponding temperature in
suburban area) which is usually de®ned as the
UHIE, is shown in Table 3. The chief features are
as follows:
(a) The UHIE in minimum, maximum and mean
temperatures has been decreasing since the
1960s.
(b) The UHIE retains most of the basic features
of the temperature characteristics of the
urban area. This indicates that some local
factors must have contributed to the tem-
perature trends observed at the urban area.
6. Discussion and Conclusion
The above results show that the suburban area of
Nagpur is warming as expected because of global
warming but some local factors resulted in
cooling in the urban area. This feature was very
much enhanced in the 1980s. Rupakumar and
Hingane (1988) had shown that since the 1960s
except in Madras, all other ®ve major cities
(Calcutta, Bombay, Delhi, Pune and Bangalore)
have either cooled or if warmed then the rate of
warming has been less than that of their sur-
rounding suburbs. The result for Nagpur are
similar. The cooling at the Nagpur urban site is
greatest in the Pre-monsoon season, followed by
Winter and Monsoon with warming in the Post
monsoon. These features are also in agreement
with Rupakumar and Hingane (1988) for most
Indian cities between 1958±1986.
Now we will try to explain the possible cause
of cooling of Indian cities by considering the
differential trends of maximum and minimum
temperatures at Nagpur.
On an annual basis, the decrease in urban
maximum temperature is the principal cause of
cooling. The record is almost trendless in the
Post monsoon season, it decreases very rapidly in
Winter followed by a still signi®cant decrease in
the Pre-monsoon season and a lesser decrease in
the Monsoon season. The contribution of mini-
mum temperature to cooling is less effective. The
trend increases very rapidly in the Post monsoon
season, still signi®cantly in Winter followed by a
decrease in the Pre-monsoon season and a
signi®cant decrease in the monsoon season. The
relative role of the seasons on warming is similar
to Rupkumar et al. (1994) for several Indian
urban sites for the period 1951±87. The decrease
in DTR and mean temperature in urban areas is
mainly due to the decrease in maximum tempera-
ture. Thus the decrease of day-time temperature
is the dominant factor in urban areas.
A likely explanation for the results is as
follows:
Night-time temperature: These have been
rising over recent decades as part of the global
trend (due to increasing concentration of green-
house gases) and because the urban heat island
has been intensifying.
Day-time temperature: These have been
decreasing because of increasing concentrations
of suspended particulate matter (increasing
urbanization and industrialization).
Thus we can conclude that on an annual basis
the role of suspended particulate matter dom-
inates over greenhouse gas global warming.
Therefore the mean temperature has a decreasing
trend resulting in relative cooling of Nagpur city,
and indeed of most other Indian cities.
Acknowledgements
The author is grateful to Dr. G. B. Pant, Director, Indian
Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) for providing
various facilities to carry out this study, and to Dr. M.K.
Soman, Assistant Director, IITM for valuable suggestions
and discussions. He thanks the Indian meteorological
Department for providing the necessary data. This
work was carried out under Climate Research Project
funded by Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of
India
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Author's address: Dr. A. K. Sahai, Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan,
Pune ± 411 008, India; e-mail: sahai@tropmet. ernet.in