Conditional Probability Excel Template

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Let us take the example of a group of 100 retail buyers, out of which 50 purchased brown bread, 40 purchased
peanut butter. However, there are 30 buyers who purchased both brown bread and peanut butter. If a retail
buyer selected at random purchased brown bread, what is the probability that he also purchased peanut
butter? Also, determine the probability that a randomly chosen buyer has purchased brown
bread given that he also purchased peanut butter.

Probability Value
Purchase of Peanut Butter P(A) 0.40
Purchase of Brown Bread P(B) 0.50
Purchase of Peanut Butter and Brown 0.30
Bread at the same time P(A ∩ B)

Conditional Probability is calculated using the formula given below

P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)

Conditional Probability 0.60

Conditional Probability is calculated using the formula given below

P(B | A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A)

Conditional Probability 0.75

 40 purchased
er. If a retail
Let us now take the example of a contingency table to illustrate the concept of conditional probability.
The contingency table is pertaining to the probability of boys and girls owning an iPhone. 

Have iPhone Don’t Have iPhone Total

Boys 0.37 0.12 0.49
Girls 0.34 0.17 0.51
Total 0.71 0.29 1

Probability of a Boy, P(A) 0.49

Probability of a Girl, P(B) 0.51
Probability of Having iPhone, P(C) 0.71
Probability of Not Having iPhone, P(D) 0.29
Probability of boy Having iPhone, P(A ∩ C) 0.37
Probability of girl Having iPhone, P(B ∩ C) 0.34
Probability of boy Not Having iPhone, P(A ∩ D) 0.12
Probability of girl Not Having iPhone, P(B ∩ D) 0.17

Randomly chosen person in boys, that they owns an iPhone

Conditional Probability is calculated using the formula given below
P(A | C) = P(A ∩ C) / P(C)

Conditional Probability 0.52

Randomly chosen person in girls, that they owns an iPhone

Conditional Probability is calculated using the formula given below
P(B | C) = P(B ∩ C) / P(C)

Conditional Probability 0.48

Randomly chosen person doesn’t own an iPhone, that in boys

Conditional Probability is calculated using the formula given below
P(D | A) = P(A ∩ D) / P(A)

Conditional Probability 0.24

Randomly chosen person doesn’t own an iPhone, that in girls

Conditional Probability is calculated using the formula given below
P(D | B) = P(B ∩ D) / P(B)

Conditional Probability 0.33