Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Operationally in line, though specialty short on details. Adjusting for lower R&D Price (`): 439
and forex gains, SUNP’s EBITDA was in line with our estimates, with lower tax rate Fair Value (`): 460
driving a strong PAT outperformance. SG&A and R&D spends will likely be volatile
BSE-30: 36,958
reflecting promotional patterns, and initiation of pivotal trials for Ilumya in PsA and AS
in 2HFY20. Disclosure of US$94 mn specialty sales in 1QFY20 is broadly in line with our
estimates, though, it fell short of expectations with no leading indicators to help assess
the ramp in Ilumya. ADD with unchanged fair value of `460/share.
C o mpan y d ata an d valuatio n summary
Sun Pharmaceuticals
Stock data Forecasts/Valuations 2019 2020E 2021E
52-week range (Rs) (high,low) 679-345 EPS (Rs) 16.1 19.6 23.8
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 1,053.9 EPS growth (%) 6.3 21.2 21.5
Shareholding pattern (%) P/E (X) 27.2 22.5 18.5
Promoters 54.4 Sales (Rs bn) 290.7 332.6 361.5
FIIs 15.5 Net profits (Rs bn) 38.8 47.1 57.2
MFs 9.3 EBITDA (Rs bn) 63.1 76.0 89.1
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M EV/EBITDA (X) 15.2 12.2 9.8
Absolute 7.7 10.3 (22.1) ROE (%) 9.8 10.8 11.3
Rel. to BSE-30 12.9 11.8 (20.2) Div. Yield (%) 0.5 0.9 1.1
For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
Pharmaceuticals Sun Pharmaceuticals
% margin
Gross margin 70.7 72.5 70.8 74.3 71.0 72.9 71.6
R&D 5.0 7.0 6.7 7.9 6.2 6.8 6.1
SG&A 41.8 43.5 41.9 52.2 41.9 44.4 40.9
EBITDA 23.8 21.9 22.2 14.2 22.8 21.7 24.6
Exhibit 2: Significant DTC spends required to penetrate the Exhibit 3: Skyrizi launch mimicking Tremfya initial trends
crowded psoriasis market Quarters post launch (US$ mn)
DTC spend, calendar year-end 2017, US$ mn
Q25
Q11
Q13
Q17
Q19
Q21
Q23
Q27
Q5
Q1
Q3
Q7
Q9
Exhibit 4: FY2021 to be a cliff year for SUNP – further in-licensing deals critical to drive incremental growth beyond FY2022
March fiscal year-ends, 2013-22E (US$ mn)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
DUSA 55 72 111 105 130 93 94 98 102 106
Absorica 194 201 184 197 240 145 130 92 16
BromSite 4 25 32 38 46 48
Odomzo 4 12 17 27 40 49
Ilumya 13 32 145 177
Cequa 0 11 61 82
Yonsa 25 25 30 23
Xelpros 5 15 25 35
Key US brands 55 266 312 289 335 370 331 377 542 537
- as a % of US sales 4.9 16.4 13.9 14.0 16.3 27.3 21.7 22.9 30.8 29.9
- % growth 386 17 (7) 16 10 (10) 14 44 (1)
Exhibit 7: Specialty R&D dipped in FY2019 and 1QFY20, though, likely to increase post initiation of pivotal trials for Ilumya in PsA and AS
March fiscal year-ends, 2013-22E (Rs mn)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
US Sales (Rs mn) 60,568 97,844 137,198 135,170 137,588 87,466 106,482 114,191 121,920 124,335
- Generics 21,355 35,898 65,357 54,573 56,275 20,832 36,909 41,752 38,740 40,879
- Specialty 2,979 16,086 19,080 18,892 22,455 23,874 23,015 26,141 37,560 37,223
- Taro 36,234 45,861 52,760 61,704 58,858 42,760 46,558 46,299 45,619 46,233
Sales 112,999 160,784 275,390 287,953 315,784 264,895 290,659 332,555 361,541 388,357
R&D expenses (Rs mn) (7,042) (10,169) (18,373) (23,025) (21,459) (20,669) (19,850) (20,773) (21,987) (23,152)
- Generics (4,504) (6,821) (11,455) (12,168) (10,934) (9,816) (11,864) (12,474) (11,781) (12,128)
- Specialty — — (2,913) (6,238) (5,641) (6,304) (3,591) (4,574) (6,667) (7,663)
- Taro (2,538) (3,348) (4,005) (4,618) (4,884) (4,549) (4,395) (3,725) (3,539) (3,362)
R&D as a % of sales (6.2) (6.3) (6.7) (8.0) (6.8) (7.8) (6.8) (6.2) (6.1) (6.0)
- of which generics 64 67 62 53 51 47 60 60 54 52
- of which Specialty — — 16 27 26 31 18 22 30 33
- of which Taro 36 33 22 20 23 22 22 18 16 15
R&D as a % of US sales (11.6) (10.4) (13.4) (17.0) (15.6) (23.6) (18.6) (18.2) (18.0) (18.6)
Generics R&D as a % of US generics sales (21) (19) (18) (22) (19) (47) (32) (30) (30) (30)
Specialty R&D as a % of US specialty sales — — (15) (33) (25) (26) (16) (17) (18) (21)
Taro R&D as a % of Taro sales (7) (7) (8) (7) (8) (11) (9) (8) (8) (7)
R&D expenses (US$ mn) (130) (168) (301) (352) (321) (320) (286) (300) (317) (334)
- of which generics (83) (113) (187) (186) (163) (152) (171) (180) (170) (175)
- of which Specialty — — (48) (95) (84) (98) (52) (66) (96) (111)
- of which Taro (47) (55) (66) (71) (73) (70) (63) (54) (51) (49)
Exhibit 8: Sun Pharma - consolidated profit and loss, balance sheet, cash model
March fiscal year-ends, 2014-22E (Rs mn)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
Net revenues 160,784 275,390 287,953 315,784 264,895 290,659 332,555 361,541 388,357
Gross Profit 132,990 207,998 223,121 234,477 190,648 211,969 236,037 259,038 281,251
Staff costs (20,744) (45,026) (47,971) (49,023) (53,671) (59,671) (62,654) (66,414) (70,731)
R&D expenses (10,169) (18,373) (23,025) (21,459) (20,669) (19,850) (20,773) (21,987) (23,152)
Other expenses (30,141) (64,462) (63,630) (63,103) (60,227) (69,373) (76,649) (81,561) (88,538)
EBITDA 71,936 80,136 88,494 100,893 56,081 63,076 75,960 89,076 98,831
Depreciation & amortisation (4,094) (11,947) (10,135) (12,648) (14,998) (17,533) (19,629) (20,229) (20,829)
EBIT 72,923 68,189 78,359 88,245 41,083 45,543 56,331 68,847 78,002
Net Interest (442) (5,790) (4,769) (3,998) (5,176) (5,553) (4,947) (4,872) (4,797)
Other income 5,081 4,008 914 6,232 8,388 10,255 9,420 10,569 9,669
Exceptional items (25,174) (2,378) (6,852) — (9,505) (12,144) — — —
Profit before tax 72,481 63,904 74,486 90,578 44,062 50,231 60,804 74,544 82,874
Tax & Deferred Tax (7,908) (9,147) (9,349) (12,116) (8,452) (6,009) (8,349) (12,249) (15,342)
Less: minority interest (7,375) (9,363) (11,126) (8,819) (4,468) (5,424) (5,399) (5,113) (5,090)
Net Income (adjusted) 57,198 45,394 54,011 69,644 33,665 38,798 47,057 57,181 62,443
EPS adjusted (Rs) 27.6 18.9 22.4 28.9 14.0 16.1 19.6 23.8 26.0
Balance sheet
Equity 204,461 293,582 354,901 404,305 419,847 427,736 476,180 532,152 592,285
Total borrowings 24,890 75,963 83,381 80,910 97,518 98,934 97,434 95,934 94,434
Deferred tax liability 2,757 985 616 3,148 2,190 1,043 1,043 1,043 1,043
Other liabilities 35,493 92,561 80,263 112,321 118,846 89,689 99,055 102,254 105,654
Total liabilities 293,708 490,279 542,196 614,102 643,028 646,938 703,248 760,919 822,953
Net fixed assets 58,242 110,201 133,606 149,403 157,111 172,919 163,290 153,061 142,232
Investments 7,876 5,989 5,933 16,062 31,572 39,518 39,518 39,518 39,518
Cash 95,886 131,155 147,045 153,717 140,200 112,263 142,816 195,447 255,120
Other current assets 121,192 215,576 225,287 287,360 286,061 283,535 318,921 334,191 347,380
Total assets 293,708 490,279 542,196 614,102 643,028 646,938 703,248 760,919 822,953
Cashflow statement
Operating profit before working capital 45,410 71,765 84,923 95,485 48,621 57,789 80,434 94,773 103,703
Tax paid (7,889) (17,404) (19,885) (20,571) (7,417) (8,864) (8,349) (12,249) (15,342)
Change in working capital 2,071 1,796 2,656 (4,092) (2,123) (26,960) (26,020) (12,070) (9,790)
Capital expenditure (9,060) (23,419) (33,825) (36,929) (19,608) (32,128) (10,000) (10,000) (10,000)
Free cash flow 30,532 32,739 33,869 33,894 19,473 (10,164) 36,065 60,454 68,572
Margins and ratios
Gross profit margin (%) 82.7 75.5 77.5 74.3 72.0 72.9 71.0 71.6 72.4
EBITDA margin (%) 44.7 29.1 30.7 31.9 21.2 21.7 22.8 24.6 25.4
Tax rate (%) 10.9 14.3 12.6 13.4 19.2 12.0 13.7 16.4 18.5
RoAE (%) 19.1 20.2 16.3 20.5 5.8 6.7 10.8 11.8 11.7
RoACE (%) 52.4 31.4 25.9 24.6 9.4 9.9 11.0 12.8 14.1
"Each of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which
the analyst is responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views
about the subject companies and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report: Chirag Talati, Kumar Gaurav."
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which Kotak
Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has provided
50%
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not
strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.