FLORIDA COVID & CHINA – SURVEY MEMORANDUM

DATE​: Thursday, June 11, 2020

FROM​: Jacqueline Boggess – Director, Insights & Communication
RE​: Survey of Likely General Election Voters

The information below was gathered by ​Cygnal​ through an online survey of likely general election
voters in Florida, conducted May 18, 2020 – May 30, 2020. This survey has a sample size of n881 and
an MoE of ±3.3% at a 95% confidence interval.

TL;DR
Florida likely general election voters overwhelmingly blame China for the spread of COVID-19. When
asked who they blame most, 43% chose “the Chinese government.” More than 80% of voters agreed
that the Chinese government covered up information related to the pandemic and that U.S. leaders
should reduce our dependence on China. More than half support demanding that the Chinese
government pay reparations for their role in the spread and nearly half support canceling debt we owe
them if they refuse to do so. While voters are split on whether they approve of Trump’s handling of the
Coronavirus, more than half approve of his hard-line stance against the Chinese government.

Biden is doing better than Trump...but not by much.

54% of these voters think things are on the wrong track in the U.S. and they’re split on whether they
would support a generic Republican or a generic Democrat for Congress. Neither Trump nor Biden is
popular with these voters – Trump’s net favorability is -6 and Biden’s is 0. Comparatively, DeSantis is at
+20. The trend of Biden doing only slightly better than Trump continues on the ballot, with Biden getting
a mere 3% more votes (Trump: 44% / Biden: 47%).

Voters blame the Chinese government.

The Chinese government’s net favorability with these voters is an abysmal -70. When asked who is
most responsible for the spread of COVID-19, 43% of voters chose “the Chinese government,” with
“President Donald Trump and his administration” coming in a diistant second (27%).

While voters under 50 and voters 50 and up are statistically equal in their blame of the Trump
administration (>50: 28% / 50+: 27%), older voters are much more likely to blame the Chinese
government than are younger ones (>50: 32% / 50+: 49%). Voters with a Bachelor’s degree or higher
are 9% more likely to blame Trump and his administration than those with a high school diploma or less
(Bachelor’s or higher: 31% / high school diploma or less: 22%). Unsurprisingly, there is a large
ideological divide.

COVID-19 Blame Conservatives Moderates Liberals

The Chinese government 62% 41% 14%

President Trump & his administration 11% 27% 52%

Voters are mixed on Trump’s COVID-19 response – but like his hard-line stance against China.
Despite more than one-quarter of voters blaming him and his administration for the spread of
COVID-19, voters are statistically split on whether or not they approve of how Trump’s handling the
pandemic (approve: 46% / disapprove: 48%). However, when you look at “strongly approve” vs.
“strongly disapprove,” the disapproval is apparent (strongly approve: 28% / strongly disapprove: 36%).
The more-popular DeSantis is getting higher marks for his response (approve: 55% / disapprove: 33%).
Trump does better when voters are asked about his hard-line stance against the Chinese government
(approve: 57% / disapprove: 23%).

China covered up COVID-19, and we should reduce our reliance on them.

When exploring China’s culpability in the spread of the Coronavirus, the statements voters were most
likely to agree with were “the Chinese government covered up information related to the impact and
breadth of the pandemic in their country” (agree: 82% / strongly agree: 54%) and “leaders should
promote American businesses in order to reduce our reliance on trade with China in response to its role
in the pandemic” (agree: 81% / strongly agree: 54%).

Republicans are 24% more likely than Democrats to agree that the Chinese government covered up
information. Older voters are 15% more likely than younger ones to agree that we should reduce our
reliance on China, while Republicans are 21% more likely than Democrats to want to reduce our
alliance. Voters making $100K or more are 10% more likely to want to reduce it than those making less
than $50K.

71% of voters disagree with the statement “I trust the Chinese government to publicly release factual
information on how many of its citizens were infected with and died from COVID- 19.” There is an age
disparity – 79% of voters 50 and up disagree while only 58% of voters under 50 disagree.

In fact, American voters are so angry with China over COVID-19, that 52% support (30% strongly)
making the Chinese government pay reparations for their role in the spread (18% oppose). Men,
conservatives, moderates, and high-income voters are particularly likely to support this idea.

If the Chinese government doesn’t compensate the U.S. for the damage these voters feel they helped
cause, almost half (49%) support cancelling debt our government owes theirs (19% oppose).
Conservatives and moderates are firmly behind this option.

Voters trust Trump more than Biden to protect American interests from China (Trump: 47%, definitely
Trump: 38% / Biden: 39%, definitely Biden: 27%). Older voters and high-income voters are particularly
likely to trust Trump on this issue. Moderates break for Biden on this question.

METHODOLOGY: ​This probabilistic survey was conducted May 18, 2020 – May 30, 2020, with 881
likely general election voters. It has a margin of error of ±3.3%. Known registered voters were
interviewed online with a secure link tied to their voter record. This survey was weighted to a likely
general election universe.

ABOUT THE FIRM: ​Cygnal​ is an award-winning national public opinion and predictive analytics firm
that pioneered multi-mode polling, peer-to-peer text collection, and Political Emotive Analysis. Cyngal
was recently named the #1 Republican private pollster by Nate Silver’s ​FiveThirtyEight,​ as well as the
#1 most accurate polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by ​The New York Times.​ Its team
members have worked in 47 states and countries on more than 1,100 corporate, public affairs, and
political campaigns.