The Challenges About The Rate of Exponential Growth

THE CHALLENGES ABOUT THE RATE OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
One of the challenges about the rate of exponential growth is how it changes
everything, how it disrupts industries, creates new opportunities, new industries.

The challenge, of course, is that our brains, the 100 billion neurons in our brain, the 100
trillion synaptic connections were shaped for a world that is very different from the world
today. Our brains evolved hundreds of thousands, millions of years ago when the world
was local and linear compared to the world that’s global and exponential today. We
think in a linear fashion. We tend to take the past and project it linearly into the future
when the world is doing anything but that.

So my friend Ray Kurzweil and I talk about the 6 D’s as a framework to think about
exponential change. It’s the following: Anything that become digitized enters a period
of deceptive growth, then disruptive growth. Then it dematerializes, demonetizes, and
democratizes products, services, and industries.

Let’s slow that down and talk about each of these.
DIGITIZATION
First. Digitization is turning something that used to be analog, handwritten, if you would,
into ones and zeros. We’re digitizing everything. We’ve digitized genetics. We’ve
digitized medicine. We’ve digitized finance. 3D printing is digitizing manufacturing.
We’re digitizing every single product, service, and industry.

At the end of the day, digitization allows us to have two advantages. One, when
something is digitized, you can replicate it, replicate those ones and zeros for effectively
zero marginal cost. If I have a digital GPS app, I can duplicate it and give it to you, and
the cost implication is effectively zero. The second is that, when it’s digitized, I can
transmit it to someone for effectively zero cost. So digitization allows the duplication
and transmission for effectively zero marginal cost.

DECEPTIVE
Now, once you do that, what you’re starting to see, when you digitize your product or
service, is a period of slow deceptive growth. I describe that deceptive growth with two
analogs. The first is that the first digital camera created by a guy named Steven Sasson
at Kodak back in 1976 – it took .01 megapixel images. The next year it took .02, then
.04, then .08. That slow doubling looked effectively like zero. Today, 30 years later, we
now have 10 megapixel images. Kodak, which invented the digital camera, is out of
business because they were fooled by that deceptive growth.

getabundance.digital 1

Here’s another example. If I asked you how many of you have heard of 3D printing, of
course we’d all raise our hands. If I said have you heard about 3D printing 5 years
ago? What about 10 years ago? What about 20 years ago? 3D printing was invented
34 years ago by Chuck Hull. It was called stereolithography. But 3D printing was
growing at a slow deceptive doubling.
DISRUPTIVE
It’s only now that we see it going to our third “D,” which is disruptive. When you’ve got
these products and services that have gone from deceptive to disruptive, they really
change everything. The digital camera – as digital photography went from deceptive to
disruptive, it transformed and disrupted Kodak. Netflix disrupted Blockbuster. Uber,
which is digitizing transportation, is disrupting the car companies. This kind of
disruption is the norm.

If you’re not ready for it, not seeing, and not capitalizing on digitizing your products and
services, I guarantee you someone else will, and ultimately they will disrupt your
business. So one of the things that I do inside the Abundance 360 Digital community is
I maintain and drive this conversation. How are you digitizing what you’re doing?
DEMATERIALIZATION
Now, the last three D’s are very important. The fourth is dematerialization. The notion
that on this phone that I carry around – by the way, when I go out and speak to
audiences, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of people, and I ask “How many
people here in the audience are not carrying their cell phone?”…crickets. I think I have
1 out of 10,000 people on the average don’t have one of these devices, but on this
device is dematerialized a GPS.

I don’t carry a GPS on the dash to my car anymore. It’s now bits, ones and zeros on my
phone. I don’t carry a highdefinition still camera, video camera, libraries of books or
records – any of these things. On this phone is dematerialized millions of dollars of
hardware that I used to have as stuff on my desk or in my closet. So if you’re building
stuff of any type or form, if you’re not thinking about how you dematerialize all of that
stuff onto a digital device – and eventually this device will dematerialize into our
clothing, into our mental reality headset, and it will go away as well.

DEMONETIZATION
Our fifth “D” is demonetization. The notion that Uber is demonetizing transportation –
when we go to electric autonomous Ubers, the cost of an electric autonomous Uber will
be ten times cheaper than you owning a car. Amazon has demonetized books and now
is demonetizing almost every other product or service. Google has demonetized


research. Imagine if you had to do a book report. You’d have to go to the library and
spend all this time.

If you were a CEO and wanted to do research, you’d spend thousands of dollars, if not
millions of dollars, on consulting firms. Now you just Google something. I f you’re not
thinking about how you demonetize your dematerialized products and services, I
guarantee you some entrepreneur will.

DEMOCRATIZATION
Now, the advantage for dematerialization and demonetization is democratization. It’s
the notion that you can no longer be focused on your city, your town, your state, even
your country. You can now deliver your products and services to 8 billion people on
planet Earth.

One of the most important things going on right now that you need to know about is
we’re going from 1.8 billion in 2010 to 3 billion people connected on the planet today,
and soon, by 2022 to 2025, we’re going from 3 billion to 8 billion people connected
online.

Larry Page, Elon Musk, Greg Wyler, and Richard Branson are all working on connecting
every single human on this planet. We’re about to deploy atmospheric, orbital,
groundbased – all of these systems that are going to connect every single human on
the planet. 8 billion people are coming online. They’re coming online not like perhaps
you and I did. They’re coming online with a megabit or a gigabit connection, every
single place on this planet.

When 5 billion new minds come online, 5 billion people who’ve never uploaded or
downloaded anything, do you think they’re going to want to go to a local ATM to get
cash or go to an agent to buy insurance? No. They’re going to be looking for
completely dematerialized, demonetized, and democratized products and services in
every single area, in banking, in real estate, in everything.

THE BIGGEST BONANZA EVER
So at the end of the day, I would be saying this is the biggest bonanza ever. In the next
five years, we’re going to see 5 billion new consumers coming online around the world,
and your ability to deliver them a democratized, demonetized, and dematerialized
product is going to be huge.

Now, I talk to a lot of CEOs for the Fortune 200 executive suites, and it shocks me how
they’re not thinking about this. These 5 billion new minds represent tens of trillions of
dollars flowing through the global economy. For me, it’s the biggest bonanza ever. So
we’re going to be discussing this. I’m going to be helping show people how do you use


the 6 D’s to create the next generation of products and services that 8 billion connected
people on planet Earth are going to desire.
DEMONETIZATION IS NOT ABOUT LESS MONEY
When you hear demonetization, do not think about less money. Let’s think about it this
way. Uber is demonetizing car transportation. Ultimately, it is a $65 billion, soon to be
$100 billion, corporation that’s changing the world.

Google has demonetized access to information, and it is one of the most valuable
companies on this planet. When you are able to demonetize something, it simply
means that you’re, first of all, switching the business model and, secondly, you’re
making available your product or service to perhaps 100 times or 1 million times more
number of individuals. So demonetization is the way you create greater wealth. At the
same time, you create a world of abundance.

PAY ATTENTION OR SOMEONE ELSE WILL
The fact is, if you’re not paying attention to the 6 D’s, if you’re not dematerializing and
demonetizing and democratizing your product or service, someone else will, and you
will be out of business. We see this over and over and over again. Blockbuster s aw
what Netflix was doing, but they ignored it. In fact, Jim Keyes, the CEO, turned down a
number of attempts by the CEO of Netflix to sell him the company. He just said, “I don’t
get it.” Ultimately, Netflix goes from a $2 billion company the year that Blockbuster goes
bankrupt. We see this over and over again. In the year that Kodak declared
bankruptcy, a company called Instagram gets acquired by Facebook for a billion dollars.
They had 13 employees, and today it is a $30 billion asset on Facebook’s balance
sheet. So we see this happening over and over again. If you’re missing it, if you’re not
doing it, you will eventually be out of business.

The old way of doing business, is not going to work in a dematerialized, demonetized
world. It’s going to be literally something you do on these devices that is effectively
marginal cost, and it’s something that you’re empowering the individual. It’s a new
business model.

USING THE 6 D’S
I’m using the 6 D’s myself in a couple different ways, first of all, in the very conversation
we’re having here. I created a program called Abundance 360.

It’s 360 CEOs that I’ve committed to running a program for 25 years. Every year in
Beverly Hills in January I get together with these same 360 CEOs and talk about the
technologies going from deceptive to disruptive that year. My job is to help them
understand where it is and where it’s going and give them the onramps of how do you


use this, how do you use this inside your company so you’re not disruptive. At the end
of the day, I’m maxed out.

We filled that 360CEO audience a year in advance. At the end of the day also,
impacting 360 CEOs isn’t the end of the game. It’s the beginning of the game for me.
So the conversation I had with my team is how do we use the 6 D’s ourselves; how do
we dematerialize, demonetize, and democratize this program. So that’s what we’re
doing with A360 Digital. We’ve digitized A360.

In fact, we’ve gone far more digitized. We’re digitizing everything I’ve ever written about
and talked about in creating a passionate community around all this information. Then
we’ve digitized it so that you can actually join onstage with me, behind the scenes, there
on stage digitally during the three days of A360 and be part of this. We’ve demonetized
it. We’ve brought the cost down by a factor of ten so we can democratize it. I’m not
impacting 360 CEOs. I’m impacting 10,000 and then a million entrepreneurs like
yourself, helping you really think exponentially, think abundance minded, and impact the
world.
AN INTERFACE MOMENT
The 6 D’s are one way for you to see where exponentials are going and how they’re
transforming products, services, industries. Another part is what I call looking for an
interface moment. Now, Marc Andreessen, the founder of Mosaic and then the
cofounder of Netscape. I had the pleasure of being onstage with him. I was talking to
him, and he was telling me about the early days of Mosaic, how in 1993 there were
something like a couple of dozen Web sites. The next year it went from that to 10,000.
Why did that happen?

Mosaic was an interface, a web browser on top of this very complicated system called
ARPANET that connected all of these computers throughout the United States and
eventually the world. Before Mosaic, for you to use ARPANET was really hard. You
had to have certain keystrokes. You had to be a specific faculty member at a specific
university. But when Marc Andreessen created Mosaic, all of a sudden it allowed
anyone to build a Web site on top of this complex powerful network. More importantly, it
allowed an entrepreneur to create a Web site that made him or her money.

I look for those interface moments. The app store on top of a million iPhones was
another interface moment. The app store was an interface for you, as an entrepreneur,
to actually create tremendous wealth on top of millions and then tens of millions and
hundreds of millions of iPhones.

For example, one of the interface moments I’m going to be talking about at Abundance
360 Digital and at A360 this year is an interface moment on top of blockchain, and it is
going to rock the world. We’re about to see interface moments on blockchain that are
going to change the Internet from a means of me exchanging information with you.


Permissionless publishing is what the Internet has been. I can send you a photo. I can
publish a blog. I can send you this video. But the Internet through this interface
moment and blockchain is going to go from the exchange of information to exchange of
value, where all of a sudden I can send you valuable things, not only money but
ownership in a house. I can send you literally a new product or service digitally through
the Internet that goes from ownership from me to ownership to you.

So we’re going to see lots of interface moments. One of the things I’m going to be
doing inside the A360 Digital community is calling these interface moments as I see
them and then teaching you how to see them so you can actually call them out to your
fellow members. That’s what we do. That’s what we do inside this community. We
share. We learn; we inspire; and we actually help call out those transformative
moments in time, where new business models, new interface moments, new
technologies are transforming our ability to rock the world.
TOO BIG TO FAIL
One of the biggest mistakes that CEOs of large companies make is they believe they’re
too big to fail. Richard Foster, a professor at Yale, did a study looking at companies on
the S&P 500, one of the stock exchanges, Standard & Poor’s. He said if you started a
company back in the 1920’s, you would be, on the average, on the S&P 500 for 67
years, for a company started today, the average on the S&P 500 is just 15 years. So it
really is a time of disruptive change.

Now, we’re seeing this every single day with Amazon. We don’t have JC Penney’s or
Woolworths or Sears and Roebucks. L iterally Amazon is crushing these companies
with the way that it’s transforming products and services.

So one of the things that I teach entrepreneurs is to actually look for corporations that
have large profit margins, that are in a nondigitized, nondematerialized,
nondemonetized arena and take them on. You’re going to see entrepreneurs taking on
the insurance industry, the banking industry, the consulting industry, any place that’s
peoplecentric and where it’s physical plantcentric. There are huge opportunities,
especially as 5 billion new consumers, come online. They’re all going to want
everything you and I have, but they’re going to want it on this device. So large
corporations have two choices. Number one, they’ll try and milk out what they’re doing
for as long as they can and then go out of business – we see a lot of companies doing
that – or, two, they partner with entrepreneurs like yourself.

Now, I said they partner with you. They don’t create this new 6 D’s application within
their company. I’m sure about one thing: Most large companies that have been doing
business for the last 20, 30, 50, 100 years are principally unable to change themselves.
The only way they change themselves ultimately is to partner with you, to go and find
entrepreneurs who are beginning life driven by an MTP that have an experimental
datadriven mindset, and what I teach those large corporations is find great


entrepreneurs, share with them your assets, your brand, your cash, your customers,
and your data, and help those entrepreneurs really thrive and then bring them into your
corporation after you’ve seen them thrive.

Ultimately, I’ll be sharing with you companies that are looking for datadriven
entrepreneurs that they want to partner with. That’s what’s going on. That’s the way I
see the world. That’s the way I teach even these Fortune 200 corporate CEOs how to
think about entrepreneurs and how to think about their potential ultimate demise and
how to guard against it.

KNOW ANYTHING YOU WANT, ANYTIME YOU WANT, ANYWHERE YOU WANT
We’re now living in a world where you can know anything you want, anytime you want,
anywhere you want. Today a human’s opinion really matters far less. What really
matters is what the data is saying.

We’re living in a world of what’s called the Internet of things, the Internet of everything.
By 2020 we’re going to have on the order of 50 billion connected devices: my Apple
watch, my OURA ring, my iPhone, a little chip I have implanted in my hand. We’ll talk
about that some other time.

All of these things are digitally connected, 50 billion connected devices, and each of
these things also have on the order of 10 to 20 sensors. So by 2020 we’re going to
have a trillion sensors measuring everything, anything. By 2030 it’s going to be 100
trillion sensors, satellites in orbit imaging every square meter on the planet, tens of
thousands of drones over every city, AR glasses imaging everything that a person looks
at at millimeter resolution, autonomous cars with LIDARs, ultrasonic sensors, and
cameras generating hundreds of megabits of data per second as they roll down the
streets. Everything is going to be imaged. We’re living into a world where, as a smart
entrepreneur, you can know anything you want.

For example, you can ask the question “What’s the most popular color on women’s
blouses at the corner of Fifth and Madison?” and actually know the answer and say
“Can we correlate the color of women’s blouses with the front page of any particular
magazine or with the weather?” or whatever it is. So we’re heading to a world where it
matters what question you ask as an entrepreneur because you can know the answer.
The data is out there.

QUESTIONS BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER BEFORE
So at the end of the day, asking questions becomes more important than ever before. I
don’t know if you’re a mom or a dad. I’m the father of two sixyearold fraternal twin
boys, and every day when they go off to school, before they go to school, I say, “Ask
great questions today.” So whether you’re a child or you’re the CEO of a Fortune 500


company, it’s the quality of the questions you ask that matter more than ever before. At
the end of the day, what are the questions you ask that drive the direction of your
company? Is your company a datadriven startup? If it’s not, join me. I’m passionate
about creating datadriven startups. It’s something we’re going to be talking about at
A360 Digital a bunch.

So if the 6 D’s ring true to you, I want to take you through a process that you can begin
to utilize as an entrepreneur.

I want you to take a moment and think through the things that you’re doing. What are
those things that are analog, where you’re having conversations with people, where
you’re writing things down, where you’re collecting information in that analog format?
It’s not digitized. It’s not autonomous. It’s not a platform where people are entering
their data. Can you write down a couple of things that are not digitized?

I’ll give you an example. At the XPRIZE foundation, the means by which we were
getting people’s opinions and what prizes we should launch was not digitized. So we’re
digitizing that. At Human Longevity, when a patient was coming into the program,
people were taking their health history written down in a fashion, we’re digitizing the hell
out of that.

At the end of the day, what is it that you’re doing that’s still analog? Can you write one
or two things down in any aspect of your life? Maybe it’s your journal that’s analog.
Write down a couple of things that are analog that you can digitize. I’ll mention to you
that, as you begin to digitize processes in your life or your startup, in the beginning, the
benefits of that are going to be deceptive. They’ll be slow. But eventually they will
become disruptive. They will change what you’re able to do. They will give you back
time.

Again, write down one or two things that you could digitize. What is a product or a
service that you’re creating, that you’re selling that you could digitize? Write that down.

Next, if you’ve been able to digitize that product or service, what is your actual cost for
delivering that digitized product or service, and how cheap could you make it to your
base? So for me, again, I’ve digitized Abundance 360, which is a $15,000 product in


2018, and we’ve cut the price down by a factor of 10 and actually increased the value
by, I would say, a factor of 100 in terms of this is a yearlong program with all the content,
the community, and everything you get access to. So where, in digitizing your product
or service, could you demonetize it, and how much would you demonetize it? Write
down a number there.

Finally, for democratization, what’s your goal in democratizing? How do you take it from
your analog product or service, and how are you going to 10x it? Is it 100x? It is
1,000x? For me, going from 360 people at A360, I want to go to 10,000 individuals on
A360 Digital. I want to find 10,000 brilliant entrepreneurs who are going to support
themselves in creating this exponential mindset and abundance mindset amongst
ourselves.

So underneath this video I’ve given you a set of documents I’d love for you to go and
download. These are your onramps to using the 6 D’s for yourself. Whether you’re
starting a company right now as an entrepreneur or you’re running a company and have
products or services, how are you going to apply the 6 D’s to yourself, to your company,
to your products and services? Download these documents and take the time to fill
them out.

Begin to think about the 6 D’s in your life and in your world.

Visit g
etabundance.digital f or more information.


About Peter H. Diamandis

Dr. Peter H. Diamandis is an international pioneer in the fields of innovation, incentive competitions and commercial
space. In 2014 he was named one of "The World’s 50 Greatest Leaders" – by Fortune Magazine.

Diamandis is Founder and Executive Chairman of the XPRIZE Foundation, best known for its $10 million Ansari
XPRIZE for private spaceflight. Diamandis is also the CoFounder and ViceChairman of Human Longevity Inc. (HLI),
a genomics and cell therapybased diagnostic and therapeutic company focused on extending the healthy human
lifespan. He is also the CoFounder and Executive Chairman of Singularity University, a graduatelevel Silicon Valley
institution that studies exponentially growing technologies, their ability to transform industries and solve humanity’s
grand challenges. Diamandis is CoFounder/CoChairman of Planetary Resources, a company designing spacecraft
to enable the detection and prospecting of asteroid for precious materials. He is also the CoFounder of Space
Adventures and ZeroGravity Corporation.

Diamandis is the New York Times Bestselling author of Abundance – The Future Is Better Than You Think and BOLD
– How to go Big, Create Wealth & Impact the World. He earned an undergraduate degree in Molecular Genetics and
a graduate degree in Aerospace Engineering from MIT, and received his M.D. from Harvard Medical School.


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