1 2

Measurement Scala & Central

Tendency

Probability nominal ordinal interval ratio

mean √ √
mode √ √ √ √
median √ √ √
σ √ √

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

3 4

Intoduction to Probability Introduction to probability

What is the probability of If we have 50 white marbles

obtaining …1, 2..6?. and 50 blue marbles in a Although we cannot
container. Suppose we are be certain, but we
1 --- 1/6 required to choose a marble
can predict
2 --- 1/6 randomly.
(forecast) what will
3 --- 1/6 • What is the probability of happen.
4 --- 1/6 obtaining a blue marble?.
5 --- 1/6
6 --- 1/6 What if there were 90 white
marbles and 10 blue marbles?
www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global
 5 6

Introduction to probability Contoh

Dalam satu klas statistik terdapat 15 orang pelajar wanita dan
45 pelajar lelaki. Daripada 45 pelajar lelaki itu terdapat 10
orang pelajar semester pertama. Daripada 15 pelajar wanita
pula terdapat 10 orang pelajar semester pertama. Jika
seorang pelajar dipilih secara rawak.
• Apakah keberangkalian mendapat seorang pelajar wanita?
• Apakah keberangkalian mendapat seorang pelajar wanita
semester pertama?
• Apakah keberangkalian mendapat pelajar lelaki semester
pertama?

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

7 8
A frequency distribution histogram,
N = 10

7
p= = 0.7
10
Although we cannot be certain,
but we can predict p=
1
10
= 0.1
(forecast) what will happen.
3
p= = 0.3
Find the following probabilities: 10

a) p (X > 2)
b) p (X > 5)
c) p (X < 3)
www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global
 9 10

Inferential Statistics
• By knowing the properties
of the population, we can
estimate or calculate the
properties of the sample
sample population

• The role of statistics is to

use the information from
sample to make probability

conclusions about the

population

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

11 12
Probability and The Normal Probability and The Normal
Distribution Distribution
34.13%

13.59%

2.28%

-2 0 1
z
-1 2

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

 13 14

Example Example
= 50 and
The population distribution of Math Test score is What is the probability of X > 70 ?
normal with a mean, = 50 and standard
deviation of
p(X > 70) = ?
2.28%
z = 70 - 50
Can we determine the probabilities for individual 10
from this population who has Math test score z = + 2.0
greater than 70?
p(z > +2.00) = 2.28%

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

Probability and the Normal
Distribution
• If a vertical line is drawn through a
normal distribution, several things
occur.
1. The exact location of the line can
be specified by a z-score.
2. The line divides the distribution into
two sections. The larger section is
called the body and the smaller
15 16
Probability and the Normal
Distribution (cont.)
The tail • The unit normal table lists several different proportions
corresponding to each z-score location.
– Column A of the table lists z-score values.
– For each z-score location, columns B and C list the proportions in
the body and tail, respectively.
– Finally, column D lists the proportion between the mean and the
z-score location.
• Because probability is equivalent to proportion, the
table values can also be used to determine probabilities.
The body

section is called the tail.

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global
 17 18
A portion of the unit normal table A portion of the unit normal table

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

19
Probability and the Normal
Let’s Check..
To find the probability
p(z > +2.00) = 2.28% corresponding to a
particular score
(X value), you should;.
20
Distribution (cont.)
1. transform the score
into a z-score,
2. look up the z-score
in the table
3. read across the row to
find the appropriate
proportion/probability.

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global


Probability and the Normal
To find the score
(X value)
corresponding to a
particular proportion,
you;
21 22
What is the probability of..
Distribution (cont.)
1 2
1. first look up the
proportion in the table,
2. read across the row to
find the corresponding
z-score, and
3. then transform the z- 3
score into an X value.

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

23 24

4 5
p (z > 1.00) =0.1587

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

 25 26

p (z < 1.50) = 0.9332 p (z < ‐0.5) = 0.3085

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

27 28

4
5

z = 0.84 & z =  ‐0.84
30% 30%

z = 1.28
30% = 0.3000
www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global
 29 30
What is probablities What is probablities
between…? between…?

P(65 < x < 75) = ?

P(65 < x < 75) =  ?
For x = 65,  z =x ‐ = 65 ‐58  =  7 = 0.70
10         10
For x = 75,  z =x ‐ = 75 ‐58  =  17 = 1.70
10          10
p(65 < x < 75) 
= p (0.70 < z <1.70
= 0.4554 – 0.2580
= 0.1974 @ 19.74% 

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

31 32
Probability and the Binomial Probability and the Binomial
Distribution Distribution
• Binomial distributions are formed by a series of Two tosses: 2 possibilities x 2 possibilities = 4 possibilities
observations (for example, 100 coin tosses) for which there
are exactly two possible outcomes (heads and tails). n of P(A) n of P(B) Probability
• The two outcomes are identified as A and B, with H,H 2 0 0.25
probabilities of p(A) = p and p(B) = q. H,T 1 1 0.25
• The distribution shows the probability for each value of X, T,H 1 1 0.25
where X is the number of occurrences of A in a series of n
T,T 0 2 0.25
observations.
TOTAL 1

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

 33 34
Probability and the Binomial Probability and the Binomial
Distribution Distribution
Three tosses: 2 possibilities x 2 possibilities x 2 possibilities = 8 possibilities
n of P(A) n of P(B) Probability
H,H,H 3 0 0.125 
H,H,T 2 1 0.125 
H,T,H 2 1 0.125 
T,H,H 2 1 0.125 
T,H,T 1 2 0.125 
T,T,H 1 2 0.125 
H,T,T 1 2 0.125 
T,T,T 0 3 0.125 
TOTAL 1

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

35 36
Probability and the Binomial
n of P(A) Probability Distribution
H,H,H 3 0.125
H,H,T 2 0.125
H,T,H 2 0.125
T,H,H 2 0.125
T,H,T 1 0.125
T,T,H 1 0.125 0.4
H,T,T 1 0.125
0.35
T,T,T 0 0.125
0.3
TOTAL 1
Probability

0.25

0.2

0.15

3 0.125 0.1

2 0.375 0.05

1 0.375 0
0 1 2 3
0 0.125
No of Head in 3 time tosses

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

 37 38

Summary.. Example :
It is a true false quiz with n = 40 questions. What
p = the probability of A is probability that you get at least 26 question
P(A) = p q = the probability of B 
correct just by chance? P (X 26) = ??
P(B) = q
Lower limit for 26 because include 26
P(A)=P(B)=p=q =
1 25.5 − 20 
40 20 Z = 
2 .
Z = 1.74
40 From z table

3.16 P (X 26) = 0.0409 @ 4.09%

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

39
Probability and Inferential
Statistics
• Probability is important because it establishes a link
between samples and populations.
• For any known population it is possible to determine
the probability of obtaining any specific sample.
www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global
40
Probability and Inferential
Statistics (cont.)
• The general goal of inferential statistics is to use the
information from a sample to reach a general conclusion
(inference) about an unknown population.
• Typically a researcher begins with a sample.
• If the sample has a high probability of being obtained
from a specific population, then the researcher can
conclude that the sample is likely to have
come from that population.
• If the sample has a very low probability of being obtained
from a specific population, then it is reasonable for the
researcher to conclude that the specific population is
probably not the source for the sample.
www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global
 41 42
Using probability to evaluate a Let’s Check 1
treatment effect

Find score for 80%
in the middle of the 
distribution?

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global

43 44
Let’s Check 2

It is a true false quiz with n = 40

questions. What is probability that
you get at least 26 question correct
just by chance?

MEGAT AMAN ZAHIRI BIN MEGAT ZAKARIA

Bilik : C15-414 / Aras 2 Pej Akademik (C22)
megataman@utm.my / megataman@gmail.com

p(x 26) = 0.0409 @ 4.09%

www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global www.utm.my  innovative ● entrepreneurial ● global