Macro Forecast

Future Drivers 2022

The seven need-to-know drivers of WGSN's Macro Forecast that will transform
industry, business and culture in 2022

Shuka Design

Executive Summary
Moving into 2022, uncertainty and concern over
the climate, civil society and the economic
outlook will dominate the macroeconomic
landscape. Anticipating, reacting and adapting to
these overarching concerns will be business
critical, facilitating a deeper understanding of how
consumer desires and spending power will
evolve.
The outlook for 2022 is not all doom and gloom.
Despite an increasingly fragmented geopolitical
landscape, people will be coming together at an
individual level to drive changes that they don’t
feel institutions or governments can provide. This
fragmented togetherness will provide strong
opportunities for companies to engage on hyper-
personalised levels.
This report identifies seven global drivers that will
reshape the macroeconomic and business
landscape in 2022, and provides key strategies
that businesses can action today for future
success. Use it to inform your innovations and
stay relevant in an increasingly challenging
environment.
• Fear will be increasingly global, driven by
violence, corruption, and economic and climate
uncertainty, but communities will be coming
together at grassroots levels in an effort to
positively embrace fear and combat insecurity.
Stress-free shopping environments will remain a
consumer priority.
• Hyper-localism will be a mass movement as
micro communities assume a greater importance
in society. Consequently, marginalised voices will
be heard more, and will share differently
presented narratives.
• Climate uncertainty will underpin decision-
making among people and businesses, and the
focus on climate adaptability and firm green
credentials will move beyond purely corporate
care, into care for all.
• Ableism will replace ageism as a focus amid
increasing demographic polarisation in 2022.
Age-positive futures and speculative design will
help remove stigmas associated with age as we
look to activate and empower ageing populations
globally.
"A new decade brings new
optimism, but as we look towards
2022, the world feels a very
uncertain place. Understanding
how individuals will react to the
pressures the planet and politics
will inflict is imperative for every
business."
- Carla Buzasi, Managing Director,
WGSN
• The power axis will begin to tilt eastward as
China’s infrastructure and soft power comes to
fruition. Economic sanctions and rising wages in
developing countries will push Western businesses
to focus on reshoring operations and invest in local
workforces.
• Post-growth attitudes will become more important
than capital accumulation as societies place a
higher value on social and ecological goods.
• Migratory patterns will reshape our lives on every
level. Urbanisation for some regions will be
contrasted with a shift towards technology-enabled
de-urbanisation and remote working in others.
Coupled with climate instability and the overuse of
farmland globally, we will see a renewed focus on
sustainable foods and ingredients, and solving
scarcity issues.
 Future Drivers Index
The seven areas of innovation that will transform industry, business and culture in 2022

1 The Fear Factor 5 Global Power Shift

2 Mass to Micro
3 Climate Urgency 6 Degrowth for Good

4 Balancing Age
7 Migratory Patterns
The Fear Factor
Fear is rising globally, driven by violence, political
corruption, government uncertainty, and climate
concerns. With rates of depression and anxiety at
crisis levels, mindsets are shifting to prioritise
physical and emotional safety. This will require
brands and retailers to reinforce a sense of security
and calm. As we start to see the pivot towards
embracing fear, emerging strategies towards fear-
factor engagement will uptick.
Generation PTSD
In August 2019, motorbikes backfiring triggered
panic at Time Square in New York as people
believed it was an active shooter. One Twitter user's
comment – "Your whole country literally has PTSD"
– went viral, summing up the mood.
Younger generations are being hit particularly hard.
In the US, 57% of teens are worried about the
possibility of a shooting happening at their school,
and a 2018 study of youths in terrorism-affected
provinces of Pakistan revealed that fear of terror
had a significant impact on their psychological
wellbeing, but this was mitigated for those with
higher emotional intelligence.
Meanwhile, a new set of fears is emerging, such as
eco-anxiety – a chronic feeling of worry about the
implications of global warming. According to a
2017 study, the psychological effects of climate
change can include anxiety, depression and stress.
@RinChupeco on Twitter
Safety to security
As tensions rise, safe spaces will move beyond
protection, encouraging people to explore
differences without fear. Safety design will also shift
to apps and products. US-based start-up
Undercover Colors has rolled out SipChip – a coin-
sized drug test to tell if your drink has been spiked.
In Hong Kong, protesters used the HKmap.live app
to track police activity and live updates of user-
generated incidents.
Embracing fear
Young people are becoming fearless because they
have nothing to lose. Actively facing the fear, they
are following a new mindset of joyful activism,
which repositions positivity as an act of survival.
From empathy clubs where people are encouraged
to discuss mental health, to school curriculums
focusing on social and emotional learning, creating
a welcoming environment is becoming more
important for younger and older consumers alike.
Going forward, it will be increasingly important to
focus on brand messaging that is reassuring. LA-
based "optimistic lifestyle label" Madhappy, for
example, fosters an inclusive local community by
hosting what it calls impactful experiences and
providing a platform for conversations around
mental health.
 Business Opportunities:
The Fear Factor
Safe space solutions
Create safe spaces in physical stores that enable
community connections and problem solving. Hotel
and members' club Eaton Workshop, for example, is
designed as an inclusive incubator for change-
makers and creatives, with a focus on solutions.
Beyond the hospitality or retail floor, brands can
also tap into the need for safety and security by
partnering with apps such as Squad, which allows
users to connect by sharing their phone screens,
and has been winning praise as a safe space for
girls online, gaining 450,000 users in eight months
– 70% of whom are teenage girls.
A space for all
Take cues from independent retail communities
that are encouraging under-served groups to go
beyond their fears and embrace their identities.
HealHaus in Brooklyn has been described by
Essence Magazine as "the wellness space that the
black community desperately needs". In LA, queer-
owned barbershops – including NINTH Chapter
and ProjectQ – are also emerging as welcoming
and inclusive spaces for all.
Calm commerce
Create calming in-store environments with
meaningful details to alleviate stress and soothe
anxiety. Use store space to slow the pace of life
down, encouraging more hands-on and mindful
rituals. Aesop set its new store in Sydney slightly
back from the pavement to give shoppers a
"moment to decompress" and aid the transition into
a calmer space.
Aesop
In an increasingly turbulent world, brands should
also look to operate with kindness and balance the
notion of safe and welcoming. This will help brands
to build trust and create a more inclusive, friendly
retail landscape.
In the UK, Topshop and Topman partnered with "Society encourages a
mental health charity Campaign Against Living risk-averse survivalist
Miserably (CALM) to launch a collection promoting mode, where safety is
self-care. The clothes featured oversized graphics to
regarded as its
encourage wearers to share problems and "iron
fundamental value."
them out with a mate", and to call CALM's helpline if
they’re "feeling completely spun out".
- Frank Furedi, sociologist
Mass to Micro
As projected in our Common Ground report,
localism is growing, with a focus on micro-
communities and economies. In 2022, we foresee
an 'Age of Locals' (individuals coming together to
invest within their post codes), where people will
build deeper ties with their neighbours and
environments. Marginalised voices will also come
to the fore, with a new generation of creatives
celebrating their roots.
Hyper-localism
Knowledge sharing will be the next evolution for
hyper localism. Urbanplay in South Korea fosters
local culture through its content, including a
magazine series, I Know Here, which curates
lifestyles based on different neighbourhood
identities. Also in South Korea, Don't Worry Village
is a community for under-40s hoping to rebuild
their lives. Concentrating on education,
entrepreneurship and settlement for six weeks,
participants get to learn diverse ways of life in a
rural village.
In October 2019, Vogue Mexico featured indigenous
women across Latin America on its 20th-
anniversary cover. Editor-in-chief Karla Martínez de
Salas said: "I hope that the stories we present in this
anniversary edition inspire women to dream big, to
start with small changes and, above all, to connect
with their roots, accepting their unique beauty and
celebrating their originality.”
Don't Worry Village in Mokpo, South
Korea
Small-town heroes
A 2018 Morgan Stanley report says consumption in
China's lower-tier cities will triple by 2030. There are
670m mobile internet users outside first-tier cities –
more than half of the country’s total users – with
72% below the age of 35. Amid the e-commerce
boom and proliferation of social media, hyper-
connected small-town youth are a growing market,
and are gathering on short-video apps such as
Kuaishou to find communities of shared interest.
Chinese vlogger Li Ziqi rose to fame by capturing
the life and handicrafts of her rural home of
Pingwu, Sichuan. Qiaofu Jiumei was a farmer in her
remote village in southern China. Now she is a
vlogger with almost three million followers.
Frontier power
As economic and social uncertainty permeates the
West, consumer power is likely to shift to frontier
nations (including some Eastern European, African
and Middle East countries), which have growing
youth populations. Optimism is high in these
regions, driven by youth power shifts. India's
domestic consumption, which powers 60% of the
GDP today, is expected to reach $6trn by 2030. A
2019 DBS study projects that Vietnam's GDP could
surpass Singapore's in 10 years, thanks to global
investors and the ongoing trade war between China
and the US.
 Business Opportunities:
Mass to Micro
Practice impact investing
With consumer loyalty increasingly driven by
shared values, we are seeing growing demand for
impact investing – the practice that aims to
generate social and environmental benefits
alongside financial returns. A majority of retail
investors see the value, with 55% expecting their
contribution to impact investing funds or products
to increase to 6% to 20% by 2021.
This focus is creating new opportunities for impact.
Take cues from Raven Indigenous Capital Partners,
which only invests in Canada's indigenous social
enterprises to accelerate their success, revitalise
their economy, and have a positive and lasting
impact on the ecosystem.
Similarly, Australia's VC fund Giant Leap solely
invests in purpose-led start-ups that are
"missionaries not mercenaries," including Who
Gives a Crap – an eco-friendly toilet paper brand
that donates 50% of its profits to build toilets for
those in need. Shea Moisture's Community
Commerce also invests 10% of purchases to help
local businesses led by women.
"Now we’re focused on further
strengthening our role in
Give back with regional respect communities, transforming our
No one knows the community more than locals, so community giving and
companies should allow store associates to have deepening our local
more input on community impact. Walmart relationships."
Rise offers every Walmart store and distribution - Greg Foran, former
centre across the US $5,000 to make a positive president and CEO, Walmart
impact in the local neighborhood, and Macy's Gives US
lists local partners and what they give back to
communities, including corporate grants,
volunteering and customer giving. A large portion
of these charities is selected by staff in the
immediate region.
Your Cause encourages community initiatives on a
mass level by connecting employees to the causes
they care about most – offering a hyper-local
experience with a vetted network of in-country
partners.
Celebrate local nuances
Global interest in micro markets will increase as the
appetite for new ideas and narratives grows. Smart
brands should let local heroes guide the way, and
use their platforms to enable these new makers to
tell their own stories.
Shea Moisture
Climate Urgency
Climate adaptability is no longer a strategy; it's a
critical consideration for long-term growth, as
consumers prioritise conscious consumption,
conscious commuting and conscious corporate
care. The mantra has moved from 'think green' to
'be green'. Demonstrating green credentials is now a
table stake, rather than an advantage over
competitors.
Action beats awareness
In response to a global climate emergency, activist
groups such as Extinction Rebellion and Sunrise
Movement are ushering in a new wave of climate
strikes around the world. Millions are taking part in
youth-led climate walkouts to demand
governments take immediate actions, as the crisis
rapidly approaches tipping point.
In October 2019, The Guardian newspaper pledged
to play a leading role in reporting on the
environmental catastrophe – from updating its
language to reflect the urgency of the crisis, to
prioritising net zero emissions by 2030.
Moving forward, companies will need to work for
everyone – shareholders, customers, society and
the planet – and they will need to be able to prove
their claims and ethics. Stakeholders need to
prioritise sustainable initiatives now – the
education piece is critical, but it's time to make a
solid investment.
Ralyn 'Lilly' Satidtanasarn
Eco-accountability
The World Bank says solid waste will increase by
70% worldwide by 2050 – jumping from 2bn tonnes
in 2016 to 3.4bn tonnes. The cost of anti-
environmentalism is increasingly becoming public
knowledge, and the 'polluter pays' principle
endorsed by the United Nations will drive shifts in
eco-accountability. In Seoul, South Korea, smart
bins charge residents via an ID card as part of a
country-wide drive to reduce food waste, which is
now 95% recycled. In China, new recycling laws will
penalise citizens who violate waste sorting rules
with steep fines and lower social credit. By 2020,
China hopes to bring the recycling rate up to 35% in
46 cities.
The Greta effect
As highlighted in our Future Consumer 2021 report,
climate activism is a critical priority for Gen Z. Greta
Thunberg, the 16-year-old Swedish climate change
activist, has catalysed an entire generation into
taking action over the climate crisis. Young activists
are now following suit, such as 12-year-old Ralyn
'Lilly' Satidtanasarn, who was inspired by Greta to
lead calls for a ban on single-use-plastic in
Thailand, and Xiye Bastida, a 17-year-old climate
justice activist embracing Mexico's Otomi
indigenous belief to take care of the earth. Gen Z is
driving an 'act now or pay later' mentality, and they
will not spend in the future with brands who don't
align with their current eco-values.
 Business Opportunities:
Climate Urgency
Circular economy to circular shopping
As people begin to understand the full reality and
scale of the climate crisis, new behaviours and
values will emerge, challenging traditional retail
business models. Buy-back schemes and circular
shopping strategies that make recycling easier will
win out, enabling consumers to live more
sustainably, and more stress-free.
London-based re-commerce start-up Stuffstr
partners with retailers such as adidas to buy back
any used clothing purchased from that brand in the
last five years, no matter the condition. Instead of
donating or discarding, Stuffstr takes unwanted
items away, and pays people for the privilege. It
brings a degree of ease to clothing take-back
schemes, shifting consumer behaviour away from
fast, wasteful consumption to a more value-driven
approach.
Launched in the US and France in May 2019, Loop
is a circular, zero-waste shopping platform that
supplies products by FMCG brands such as Häagen
Dazs and Hellman's in reusable containers. Once
finished, they are returned, sanitised, refilled, and
ready to be used again.
The new conscious creatives
As reported in our 2018 Consumer Forecast, a new
breed of conscious creatives is emerging. This
represents an opportunity to partner with festivals,
events and cultural outlets that reflect a sustainable
lifestyle. In 2019, Vice China launched a new weekly
sustainability advice column, and China's
Strawberry Music Festival chose "circular world" as
its theme. In New York, the New Museum's IdeasCity
festival for the Bronx focused on the effects of Strawberry Music Festival
climate change in the borough.
Modify the message
Balance climate urgency with hopeful and inspiring
ideas. Shifting from fear-based to empowering "Climate change is fast, much
images, Climate Visuals offers an image library to faster than it seems we have
build a more compelling and diverse visual
the capacity to recognise and
language for climate change. Seoul-based
acknowledge; but it is also
company Superbin launched an experiential pop-up
store that monetises trash. Visitors could exchange long, almost longer than we
trash for points to purchase eco-friendly goods and can truly imagine."
services in store. The aim was to rebrand recycling
- David Wallace-Wells,
as a new joyful culture, with a tagline "trash is
money, recycling is play". author of The Uninhabitable
Earth
Balancing Age
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO),
the number of people aged 60 and older will
outnumber children under five years old by 2020.
Companies should look at ageing as an avenue to
explore an exciting new life stage, rather than
perceiving it as life-limiting.
Evolving from the demographic polarisation
explored in Future Drivers 2021, people will be
looking to co-create an age-positive future to lessen
the economic and emotional burdens associated
with ageing. It's time to reframe ageing and
associate it with contribution to society and joy,
mindful that the young people of today are the
older people of tomorrow.
Ageism is the last social taboo
Amid growing awareness of diversity and inclusion,
ageism will be the next social taboo to be tackled.
Ageism can have serious health consequences –
studies suggest that older people with negative age
stereotypes are less likely to recover from disability
and can have a higher risk of Alzheimer's. The WHO
has developed a global strategy and action plan on
ageing, underpinned by a vision that all people can
live long and healthy lives.
Radical ageing: ageism to ableism
We need to look at ageing as an opportunity rather
than a challenge, with an inclusive mindset and
deeper understanding. The Radical Age Movement
is growing in the US, challenging
Collection 009 by Toogood
traditional notions of ageing, with an aim of
creating a "society that works for us all". Keeping
older people in the labour force will also become
inevitable, as the working-age population continues
to shrink globally.
'Generation Reborn'
A new generation of older people is starting to reject
negative stererotypes and rebrand ageing with joy.
Engaged, active and creative Boomers and seniors
are preparing for the next chapter of their lives with
vitality, and seeking new opportunities for personal
growth and exploration. They are also embracing
the power of social media, with the rise of
'granfluencers', who are engaging all age groups
with humour and a can-do attitude.
Co-creating intergenerational equality
Ageing is not just about older adults; it affects
everyone. In order to co-create an age-positive
future, companies should promote
intergenerational connections and build a new
roadmap for ageing. Hong Kong-based social
design agency Enable Foundation focuses on
cross-generational co-creation and design solutions
for the territory's ageing society. The organisation's
'enablers' range from design students to
professionals and seniors, and they work on
projects covering ageing, dementia, and even
improving the experience of dying.
 Business Opportunities:
Balancing Age
Invest in the silver economy
It's time for brands, services and marketers to
redress their perceptions of ageing and the
accompanying needs and desires of older
consumers – the rule book is being rewritten. Living
longer presents new opportunities and increased
time for learning, consuming, creating and
producing. In addition, the International Labour
Organisation (ILO) estimates that doubling
investments into the care economy could lead to
269 million new jobs by 2030.
Embrace the greying workforce
In the age of the 100-year life, a rapidly ageing
workforce will completely redesign the three life
stages of education, work and retirement. Today,
over-65s already make up 12.4% of the Japan's
labour force, while in the US older workers are
predicted to increase their share to about 25% of
the workforce by 2026, and the those over 65 are
expected to have the fastest growth. In Europe, if
older workers continue to participate in the labour
force, they could represent as much as 38% by
2028.
"While we can all expect to
live longer than previous
Companies will have to look for new ways to build generations, we must be
an age-inclusive workplace and engage this fast- attuned to the fact that the
growing segment of the workforce. A 2018 Deloitte
ageing experience is
survey found that 16% of companies are now
incredibly diverse."
creating special roles for older workers and 20% are
partnering with them to develop new career models. - Sarah Douglas, director, The
Challenge the cult of youth Liminal Space
In a youth-obsessed culture, brands should update
their portrayals of ageing to shift the dialogue.
Launched in 2018, the Society of Very Senior
Creatives supports and celebrates creatives over 45
in advertising. In the US, the AARP (formerly the
American Association of Retired Persons) teamed
up with Getty Images to roll out an image collection
of active seniors. In 2019, the Unclaimed exhibition
at London's Barbican Centre, created by The Liminal
Space with UCL's gerontology research team,
provided unique insight into the human stories of
ageing, presented alongside key statistics.
Deveaux
Global Power Shift
The global power balance is shifting as Western
countries begin to lose their grip and influence on
global trade. New nationalism, alternative trade
routes and digital leapfrogging are tilting the
influence axis from West to East.
The China power shift will evolve from 2021, and
China’s partnership and investment in African
countries is being used to secure maritime trade
routes and advance the country's Belt and Road
Initiative of global infrastructure development. Add
in the decentralisation of power in Europe and
LATAM, and the democratisation of information in
India and Southeast Asia, and the result is greater
fragmentation of globalisation.
Belt and Road Initiative
China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is the most
expensive infrastructure project in history. It will
build and connect a global network of ports with an
ambitious rail infrastructure, allowing China to
extract resources to fuel its growth, while accessing
new trading partners.
The rising living standards, trade partnerships and
subsequent geopolitical influence that will result
from this will see trade prospects shift eastwards. It
will also provide access to new consumers (the
combined population of all countries involved in BRI
is 4.6 billion), and foster economic cooperation
between some unlikely partners.
LVMH
Rise of Africa
While Africa's local investments continue to grow
regional GDP, China's investment of about $2trn
into Africa since 2005 has developed a fertile
environment for trade cooperation with a number of
countries, poising the continent for explosive
growth. The population of Sub-Saharan Africa is set
to double in the next 30 years, adding 1 billion
people. One impact of China's investment is that
Mandarin could rise as a de facto lingua franca in
Africa, meaning two of the world's most populous
regions will share a common language. Kenya will
introduce Mandarin into primary schools in 2020,
and Uganda has introduced it as a compulsory
language at selected schools. South Africa is also
offering Mandarin in its schools.
Local reshoring
A climate of global economic instability, surging
nationalism, and sanctions between the US and
China will see a rise in companies reshoring their
manufacturing. In 2018 alone, 1,389 companies
returned 145,000 jobs to the US, according to
Reshoring Initiative – an organisation focused on
bringing manufacturing jobs back to the country.
As nationalist sentiments among populations rise,
and concerns around the carbon footprint of goods
increases, consumers will expect products and
services to originate from within their regions.
 Business Opportunities: Global
Power Shift
New markets
Opportunities that come from increased access to
markets around the world will create new consumer
markets. Infrastructural improvement will allow
more remote consumers to be reached, while digital
leapfrogging among emerging economies will
result in greater audiences for communicative
brand messaging. To sustain business growth, look
to emerging economies and be ready to adapt as
consumers make their voices and priorities heard.
Glocal hubs
The global power shift means consumers in
emerging markets will expect more than a one-size-
fits-all brand offer. Stronger national identities and
greater vocalisation among consumers will require
brands to provide region-specific goods and
services. Look at expanding regional operations, as
with Microsoft's Airband Initiative, which is bringing
broadband access to rural areas while providing
new job pathways.
Provenance purchase power
Hyper-local consumers in the West are prioritising
home-grown brands, and supporting and
employing workers in their market – and while this
is being driven by economic insecurity, in part
related to Brexit and the US-China trade war,
consumers still expect no disruption to the delivery
and quality of the products they buy.
Rising wages overseas have made reshoring a
Microsoft
viable financial alternative for some, as well as a
good marketing strategy. Growing awareness of
climate change and an understanding of brand
carbon footprints is also driving concern around the
provenance of goods, and the miles required to
"Billions of Asians growing
make and deliver them.
up in the past two decades
Brands should capitalise on creating products
have experienced
locally to futureproof themselves against economic
shocks. Look to LVMH, which set up a factory in geopolitical stability, rapidly
rural Texas, and Yeezy, which has plans to move expanding prosperity, and
production to a 4,000-acre site in Wyoming, US. surging national pride."
- Parag Khanna, author of
The Future Is Asian
Degrowth for Good
The unregulated markets that have shaped the
global economy have also led to the degradation of
local communities and natural resources, but
change is afoot. The principles of post-growth
economics are seeing higher value placed on social
or ecological good over economic growth, and in
turn, there is consumer demand for corporate and
personal initiatives that prioritise the environment
and wellbeing. This implies less production, less
consumption, and likely less work, and more
consumer spending on leisure and entertainment.
The shift here is from regrowth to degrowth, where
consumers are focusing on the essentials and
slowing down with a less-is-better approach.
De-prioritising over re-prioritising
Degrowth emerged as an activist movement
challenging consumerism and commodification,
and has gained momentum in academic circles,
notably through the Research & Degrowth network,
which is dedicated to raising awareness and
promoting strategies to show that prosperity
without growth is possible.
The future of work
Two offshoots from this movement have differing
approaches regarding work and pay. 'Degrowthers'
believe in decreasing salaries and working days,
while 'green growthers' propose that pay rates stay
the same, with a reduction
Kai Wai Wong
only in our working hours, achieved through greater
efficiency to support humans in stepping away
from our productivity craze. The idea is to find
smarter ways for technology to step in and support
us, but not replace us.
A need for new metrics
Money remains the key measure of growth
and production in most conventional economies,
but GDP (gross domestic product) is being
questioned as some critics believe it is no longer an
adequate measure of performance.
Alternatives to GDP are beginning to circulate,
proposed by a range of institutions and academics.
Rutger Hoekstra's recent book, Replacing GDP By
2030, tracks GDP as the world's most influential
indicator, and proposes a roadmap for an
alternative based on wellbeing and sustainability
principles.
The Wellbeing Economy Alliance (WEAll) was
established in the UK as a group of brands and
individuals "working together to change the
economic system to create a wellbeing economy".
Scotland, Iceland and New Zealand also
established the Wellbeing Economy Governments
(WEGo) initiative in 2018 to demonstrate how
countries could work together to prioritise social
and ecological wellbeing.
 Business Opportunities:
Degrowth for Good
The four-day work week
The idea of shorter working weeks and green
growth is starting to gain traction. Research by
Henley Business School in the UK found that
companies that adopted a four-day working found
that 78% of staff were happier, 70% were less
stressed, and 62% took fewer days off sick. From an
environmental perspective, fewer office hours also
equals less electricity consumption. In fact,
Microsoft Japan's four-day work week trial boosted
productivity by almost 40 percent and reduced
electricity use by 23 percent, according to the
company.
Conscious commuters
Flexible working is changing the behaviour of
consumers, who are commuting less, eating home-
cooked food over convenience foods, and spending
more time locally. "Having more time in life to do
things you actually enjoy could result in a change in
behavioural patterns so that you actually stop
consuming as many high-carbon products," says
Alice Martin, head of work and pay at UK think tank
the New Economics Foundation.
"We believe that design can
play a major role in shifting
mindsets away from over-
production and
consumption, towards a
Biodiversity as a business imperative regenerative economy that
The global population could peak at nearly 11 doesn’t need growth to
billion by 2100, putting further strain on the thrive."
environment. The world has more than 20,000
edible plants, but 75% of the global food supply - Studio Micat, There Project, and
comes from just 12 plant and five animal species, Proud Studio, designers of the
which is fuelling a loss of biodiversity on a huge Non-Pavilion
scale.
A shift to a biodiversity-based civilisation will
become an imperative, and brands will have to
move toward climate-positive products and services
to stand out. Companies must work to direct
mindsets away from over-production and over-
consumption, and towards a regenerative economy
that doesn't need growth to thrive.
In September 2019, global companies including
L’Oréal, Google, Nestlé, Kering and Mars formed
the One Planet Business for Biodiversity (OP2B)
allegiance, pledging to reverse the loss of
biodiversity with regenerative farming. The
investment, which will result in healthier soils and
more pollination, also offers an incentive for people
to purchase from these companies, which sell
products in more than 120 countries.
The Coral by Ulrim
Migratory Patterns
Globally, we’re seeing migratory contradictions, with
some regions urbanising at rapid rates, and others
experiencing a return to rural areas, largely driven
by technological advancements and flexible work.
Additionally, climate change will continue to
reshape communities as natural disasters and a
lack of arable land increases.
The rise of the micropolitan
For more than a century, urban centres have been
considered pillars of aspiration and individual
triumph, but this notion is rapidly changing, with
countries including China and the US experiencing
a great inversion – middle class migration out of
tier-one cities.
Micropolitan areas contain an urban population of
at least 10,000, but less than 50,000, and they are
attracting people and businesses thanks to cheaper
land, lower taxes, and less pollution and crime.
For cities that have been decimated by a lack of
labour jobs, this new pattern is reshaping and
saving communities. The Homecomers podcast by
American journalist Sarah Smarsh explores this
shift with diverse episodes covering families and
single people who are building roots in areas that
society and economics would suggest they should
leave – from the migrant camps of California's
Central Valley to the Iowa tribe of Kansas and
Nebraska.
Nanhui New City, China
Climate migrants
Climate change could be another driver for the rise
of micropolitans. The World Bank projects that just
over 143 million people could become climate
migrants by 2050. Cities including Mumbai, Basra
and Alexandria are at risk of being wiped out. In
Vietnam, more than 20 million people – almost one
quarter of the population – live on land below high-
tide lines. Climate Central has developed a coastal
risk screening tool that projects which areas will be
below annual flood levels in 2050.
Childless cities
As more families move out of urban areas, high-
density cities are becoming increasingly childless.
In a 2019 article for The Atlantic, titled The Future of
the City is Childless, journalist Derek Thompson
writes that cities are turning into "an Epcot theme
park for childless affluence, where the rich can act
like kids without having to actually see any". This
signals deeper embedded inequities and an urban-
rural divide. Going forward, urban amenities that
are child-friendly and mindful of youth development
and social cohesion will be increasingly prized.
 Business Opportunities: Migratory
Patterns
Eco-activated cities
As some regions rapidly urbanise, cites will need to
prepare for overpopulation and the toll of the
climate crisis. In Singapore, rising sea levels have
made reclaiming land unviable, so the country has
created a draft master plan to build an
underground city for transport and utilities. Oceanix,
a Hong Kong-based company, has teamed up
with Bjarke Ingels Group and MIT's Centre for Ocean
Engineering to develop a concept for a floating
metropolis for 10,000 people, and China, which is
forecast to have an urban population of one billion
by 2030, claims it is building 285 eco-cities.
Tech-empowered villages
Urban areas are becoming more eco-activated and
humanised, while rural areas are becoming smarter.
In China, digital integration in the rural economy
continues to be a national priority. In Estonia, the e-
residency programme, which lets non-Estonians
access to Estonian services such as company
formation, banking, taxation and payment
processing, has contributed €14m to the economy,
fuelled by the country's vibrant start-up scene and
digital infrastructure.
Kid-free to kid-specific
As cities become more childless, adult-friendly
spaces are replacing kid-friendly ones. In South
Korea, 'no-kid zones' are becoming more common
to avoid complaints from customers. An Embrain
survey in the country showed that 60.9% of
respondents aged 19-59 have felt uneasy because
of children in public places.
This doesn't mean families are being left out.
@puliandc
Instead, kids-only spaces are expanding beyond
their traditional territory of hospitality spaces to
stores, restaurants and mixed-use spaces. Play
cafes are rising in tier-one US cities (Chicago, Los
Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Seattle), with
businesses such as Ample Hills Creamery and City "America’s rich cities
Owlets – both in New York – dedicating large areas specialise in the young, rich,
for children's play, complete with baristas, soft and childless; America’s
lighting and noise cancelling elements. Play cafes suburbs specialise in parents.
represent a ripe opportunity for brands that are The childless city may be
looking to test apparel, food and beverage, and
inescapable."
lifestyle accessories for children and households
through strategic partnerships. - Derek Thompson,
The Atlantic
 Research Matrix

Fear Factor Climate Urgency

Pew Research: Majority of US teens fear a school
The World Bank: Global waste to grow by 70% by 2050
shooting
unless urgent action is taken
American Psychological Association: Mental health
and our changing climate
Balancing Age
US Department of Veteran Affairs: How common is
PTSD in children and teens?
World Health Organisation: Ageing and health
World Economic Forum: Global Risks Report 2019
Global Coalition on Ageing
US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Projection overview and
Mass to Micro
highlights, 2016 to 2026
Deloitte: European Workforce Survey
Morgan Stanley: Consumption in China's smaller
cities could triple by 2030 International Labour Organisation: Urgent action needed to
prevent looming global care crisis
World Economic Forum: Future of consumption in
India
DBS: Understanding Vietnam
FT and The Rockefeller Foundation: Retail impact
investing uncovered
 Research Matrix
Global Power Shift
China Power: How will the Belt and Road Initiative
advance China's interests?
Johns Hopkins University: China Africa Research
Initiative
American Enterprise Institute: China global
investment tracker
Pew Research: Emerging and developing economies
much more optimistic about the future than rich
countries
Degrowth for Good
Rutger Hoekstra: Replacing GDP By 2030
Autonomy: The ecological limits of work
Patrick Brione: Is Thursday the new Friday?
Migratory Patterns
World Bank: Preparing for internal climate migration
Singapore Urban Redevelopment Authority: Draft master
plan 2019
McKinsey: Preparing for China's urban billion
The New York Times: Rising seas will erase more cities
by 2050, new research shows
Climate Central: Coastal risk screening tool
The Atlantic: The future of the city is childless
Dezeen: BIG unveils Oceanix City concept for floating
villages
Forbes: China is building 285 eco-cities
 WGSN Macro Forecast 2022
The report timeline for WGSN's 2022 trends

FUTURE DRIVERS
Annual
November 2019

The global macro- Seasonal A/W 21/22:

Annual
economic drivers that Oct 2019 – Feb 2020

FUTURE INNOVATIONS
November 2019 Annual
will shape 2022, and Seasonal S/S 22:
January 2020

TREND CONCEPTS
strategies for success Apr 2020 – Aug 2020
The 12 areas of innovation
that will lead

BIG IDEAS
Future Drivers and Future
transformation across Innovations Trend Concepts present
industries in 2022, and contextualised for the the seasonal design
their implications for Fashion, Beauty, and directions for each
Annual department, with more
FUTURE CONSUMER

business and culture Lifestyle & Interiors

January 2020 than 40 reports published
industries
twice a year
The key consumer
sentiments and profiles
that will disrupt Fashion / Beauty / Lifestyle &
industries in 2022 Fashion / Beauty / Lifestyle & Interiors only
Insight / Fashion / Lifestyle & Interiors only
Interiors only
Insight only

Business Strategy Product Design

 WGSN Macro Forecast 2022
The trend matrix, from Future Drivers to Trend Concepts

The Fear Factor Climate Urgency Degrowth for Good Balancing Age Mass to Micro Global Power Shift Migratory Patterns

Digital Identities Digital Identities The Pleasure Principle Digital Identities Made in Nature
The Pleasure Principle The Pleasure Principle Creating Intimacy The Tactile Internet Decolonisation
Survival Mode The Tactile Internet Time Affluence Pre-Futures
The Horror De-Materialisation

Tech-Celleration Design Resolution Leverage

the Local
Selling Survival Pleasure With Purpose

Phantasmagoria Conscious Clarity New Mythologies

FUTURE DRIVERS FUTURE INNOVATIONS BIG IDEAS TREND CONCEPTS

Business Strategy Product Design

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