Introduction

1
 Technical Analysis

Technical analysis takes completely6 different approach: it doesn’t care one

bit about the “value” of a company or a commodity. Technicians (sometimes called
chartists) are only interested in the price movements in the market.

Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employs, technical analysis really
just studies supply and demand in a market in an attempt to determine what
direction, or trend, will continue in the future. In other words, Technical analysis
attempts to understand the emotions in the market by studying the market itself, as
opposed to its components. If you understand the benefits and limitations of
technical analysis, it can give you an new set of tools or skills that will enable you
to be a better trader or investor.

Just as there are many investment styles on the fundamental side, there are
also many different types of technical traders. Some rely on chart patterns; others
use technical indicators and oscillators and most use some combination of the two
what separates them from their fundamental counterparts. Unlike fundamental
analysts, Technical analysis don’t care whether a stock is undervalued the only
thing that matters is a security’s past trading data and what information this data
can provide about where the security might move in the future.

2
Definition:

A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by

market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysis do not attempt
to measure a security’s intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to
identify patterns that can suggest future activity. Technical analysis believe that the
historical performance of stocks and markets are inductions of future performance.

---“Cory Janssen &Chad language”

A method of evaluating securities by relying on the assumption that market

data such as charts of price, volume and open interest, can help predict future
(usually short-term) market trends. Unlike fundamental analysis, the intrinsic value
of the security is not considered. Technical analysis believe that they can
accurately predict the future price of a stock by looking at its historical prices and
other trading variables. Technical analysis assumes that market psychology
influences trading in a way that enables predicting when a stock will rise or fall.
For that reason, many Technical analysis are also market timers, who believe that
Technical analysis can be applied just as easily to the market as a whole as to an
individual stock.

3
Review of literature

4
Objective of the study

 To understand Technical analysis

 To understand economic variable affect the stock market prices.
 To understand the rationale of Technical analysis
 To understand the uses of Technical analysis
 To know the differences between Technical analysis and fundamental
analysis.

Description of the method

The following are the steps involved in the study

Selection of the scrip:

The scrip selection is done on a random and the scrip selected is:

---HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD

---OIL & NATURAL GAS CORP. LIMITED
---UNITECH LTD
---RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED

Analysis :
The analysis consist of the tabulation=of the data & graphical
representation assessing the profitability positions of the futures buyers and
sellers and also option holder, and the option writer, representing the data
with graphs and making the interpretation useful for data.

5
 History of Technical Analysis

THE STORY OF Technical analysis STARTS WITH Charles Dow

the erstwhile editor of the famed wall street Jounal and the inventor of the
first stock market index. Charles Dow invented point and figure charting
after he noticed that by the time important corporate new entered the public
domain, the share price had already moved, due not least to insider trading.
Therefore he watched the open oudtcry ’curb market’ writing down prices in
a notebook, looking for clues to trending market action finding a page of
price changes confusing not surprisingly, he decided to plot price action in
graphic form.
Mr. Dow also wrote a series of articles for the Wall Street Journal in
the latter years of the q19th century. This body of work became known as “
Dow Theory” and formed the initial basis for what we know as Technical
analysis today. The most important concepts that Mr. Dow recognized were
that prices reflect the current balance of supply and demand (i.e. the hopes
and fears of investor. And most importantly, an imbalance of supply and
demand causes process to form recognizable trends, up and down.

On his death in 1902, William Hamilton continued Dow’s work,

writing editorials of his own until 1929. Robert Rhea then collected the work
of both of these men and used it as a basis The Dow Theory’ in 1932. This
book expounds may key principles of stock market analysis, such as
defining the nature of the primary, secondary and Minor trends. The concept
of studying price action was fairly well established by the early 20 th century.
By the 1940s to 1950s additi8onal pioneers of Technical analysis such as

6
Bill Jailer, Robert Edwards, John Magee, Alexander Whelan, Abe Cohen, E.
George Schaefer, Richard Russell were making steady progress, not only in
the types of charts used to depict trends, but also techniques for analyzing
price action.

However the acceleration in technical technique commenced in the

late 1970s with the introduction of computers. This made it possible or
hypotheses and indicators to be calculated and back tested as to their
efficacy. While this has greatly expanded the body of theoretical work
available on price studies, many seasoned chart readers maintain that at least
90 percent of what they need to know about prices is revealed by the price
action alone. Technical analysis then on have looked fo9r recognizable
patterns that show up on a consistent basis throughout the trading history.
They postulate that these patterns are driven by human psychology that
remains consistent over time.

7
 METHODOLOGY

SOURCE OF DATA
Primary Data:
The data as expressed above was collected through national Stock
Exchange, in course of
 Attending Executives Training Program in Investment Solutions Pvt.
Ltd.
 Interviewing the internal Employees in Investment Solutions Pvt. Ltd.
 Interaction with the executives of different technical analyst in the
organization helped in assessing information.

Secondary Data:

The Secondary Data was provided for the study through

 Browsing from the internet

 Text Books like investment Management, Financial management
 Newspapers like Economic Times, Times of India etc;
 Business Magazines like siness Today, India Today etc.
 The collected data shown in the form of tables & graphs based on which
interpretation is being made. While interpreting absolute values, relative
changes, diagrams and objections etc.

8
 LIMITATIONS

1) THE STUDY IS LIMETED TO 4 SECURITIES.

2) THERE MAY BE SCOPE FOR COMMITTING STATISTICAL

ERRORS.

3) THERE was a constraint with regard to time allocation for the

research study i.e. for a period of two months.

4) The observations drawn are of base and current year only.

5) Technical analysis involves compilation and analysis of huge amount

charts and statements therefore, complex and time consuming.

6) Technical factors may undergo certain changes from time to time

therefore; gains in the securities may be realized very late.

9
INDURSTRY
&
COMPANY
PROFILE

10
HISTORY OF THE STOCK EXCHANGE

The only stock exchanges operating in the 19 th century were those

of Bombay set up in 1875 and Ahmedabad set up in 1894.these were organized as
voluntary non profit making organization of brokers to regulate and protect their
interests. Before the controls on securities trading become a central subject under
the constitution in 1950, it was a state subject and the Bombay securities contract
(control) Act of 1952 used to regulate trading in securities. Under this Act, the
Bombay stock exchange in 1972 and the Ahmedabad in 1973.

During the war boom, a number of stock exchanges were organized

in Bombay, Ahmedabad and other centers, but they were not organized. Soon after
it become a central subject, central legislation proposed on a committee headed by
A.D.Gorwala went into the bill securities regulation. On the basis of committee’s
recommendations and the public discussion the securities contract (regulation) Act
became law in 1956.

Definition of the stock exchange

“Stock exchange means any body or individuals whether incorporated or

not, constituted for the purpose of assisting, regulating or controlling the business
of buying, selling or dealing in securities.

It is an association of member brokers for the purpose of self regulation and

protecting the interest of its members. It can operate only if the government

11
recognizes it. Under the securities contract (regulation) act 1956, the recognition is
granted under section 3 of the act by central finance ministry.

Bye-laws

Besides the above act, the securities contract (regulations) rules were also
made in 1975 to regulate certain matters of trading of stock exchanges, which are
concerned with following subjects.

Opening/closing of stock exchanges, timing of trading, regulation of bank

transfer, regulation of carryover business, control of settlement, and other activities
of stock exchanges, fixation of margins, fixation of market prices, regulation of
taravani business (jobbing), regulation of broker trading, brokerage charges,
trading rules on exchanges, arbitration and settlement of disputes, settlement and
clearing of the trading.

Regulations of stock exchanges:

The securities contract (regulation) is the basis for operations of the stock
exchange in India. Stock exchanges are given monopoly in certain areas under
section 19 of the above act to ensure that the control and regulation are facilitated.
Recognition can be granted to a stock exchange provided certain conditions are
satisfied and the necessary information is supplied to the government. Recognition
can be withdrawn, if necessary. Where there is no stock exchange, the government
can license some to the brokers to perform the function of a stock exchange in its
absence.

12
Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI)

SEBI was set up as an autonomous regulatory authority by the government

of India in 1988 “to perform the interest of investors in securities and to promote
the development of and to regulate the securities markets and for matters
connected therewith or incidental thereto”. It is empowered by two acts namely the
SEBI Act, 1982 and the securities contract (regulation) Act, 1956 to perform the
function of protecting investor’s rights and regulating the capital market.

National Stock Exchange (NSE):

The NSE was incorporated in NOVEMBER 1994 with an equity capital

of Rs.25 Crores. The International Securities Consultancy (ISC) of Hong Kong has
helped in setting up NSE. ISC has prepared the detailed business plans and
installation of hardware and software systems. The promotions for NSE were
financial institutions, insurance companies, banks and SEBI capital market ltd,
Infrastructure leasing and financial services ltd. and stock holding corporation ltd.
It has been set up to strengthen the move towards professionalism of the
capital market as well as provide nation wide securities trading facilities to
investors.

NSE is not an exchange in the traditional sense where the brokers own and manage

The exchange. A two tier administrative setup involving a company board and a
governing board of the exchange is envisaged.

13
 NSE is a national market for shares, PSU bonds, debentures and government
securities since infrastructure and trading facilities are provided.

The genesis of the NSE lies in the recommendations of the Pherwani

Committee (1991).It has been setup to strengthen the move towards
professionalisation of the capital market as well as provide nation wide securities
trading facilities to investors.

NSE-Nifty:

The NSE on April22, 1996 launched a new equity index. The NSE-50
the new index which replaces the existing NSE-100, is expected to serve as an
appropriate index for the new segment of futures and options.

“Nifty” means National Index for Fifty Stocks.

The NSE-50 comprises 50 companies that represent 20 broad industry

groups with an aggregate market capitalization of around Rs. 1, 70,000 crores. All
the companies included in the Index have a market capitalization in excess of Rs.
500 crores. Each and should have traded for 85% of trading days at an impact cost
of less than 1.5%.

The base period for the index is the close of price on NOV 3, 1995
which makes one year of completion of operation of NSE’s, capital market
segment. The base value of the index has been set at 1000.

NSE-Midcap Index:

The NSE madcap index or the Junior Nifty comprises 50 stocks that
represents 21 board Industry groups and will provide proper representation of the

14
midcap. All stocks in the index should have market capitalization of greater than
Rs.200 crores and should have traded 85% of the trading days at an impact cost of
less than 2.5%.

The base period for the index is Nov 4, 1996 which signifies 2 years for
completion of operations of the capital market segment.

Average daily turnover of the present scenario 258212(lacs) and number

of average daily trades 2160(lacs).

Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE):

This stock exchange in Mumbai, popularly known as “BSE” was

established

In 1875 as “The native share and stock brokers association”, as a voluntary non-
profit making association .It has evolved over the years into its present status as the
premier stock exchange in the country. It may be noted that the stock exchange is
the oldest one

In Asia, even older than the Tokyo Stock Exchange, this was founded in 1878.

A governing board comprising of 9 elected directors, 2 SEBI nominees,

7 public representatives and an executive director is the apex body, which decides
the policies and regulates the affairs of the exchange.

15
 The executive director as the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) is
responsible

For the day-to-day administration of the exchange. The average daily turnover of
the exchange during the year 2000-01(April-March) was Rs. 3984.19 Crores and
average

No. of daily trades was 5.69 lacs.

However the average daily turnover of the exchange during the year
2001-02 has declined to Rs1244.10 Crores and average daily trades during the
period to 5.17 lacs.

The average daily turnover of the exchange during the year 2002-03 has
declined and the no of average daily trades during the period has also decreased.

The ban on all the deferral products like BLESS AND ALBM in the
Indian capital markets by SEBI with effect from July 2, 2001, abolition of account
period settlements, introduction of compulsory rolling settlements in all scripts
traded on the exchanges with effect from Dec 31, 2001, etc., have adversely
impacted the liquidity and consequently there is a considerable decline in the daily
turnover at the exchange. The average daily turnover of the exchange in the present
scenario is 110363(lacs) and the no of average daily trades is 1057(lacs)

BSE Indices:
16
 In order to enable the market participants, analysts etc., to track the various
ups and downs in Indian stock market, the exchange had introduced in 1986 an
equity stock index called BSE-SENSEX that subsequently became the barometer
of the movements of the share prices in the Indian stock market. It is a “market
capitalization –weighted” index of 30 component stocks representing a sample of
large, well established and leading companies. The base year of sensex is 1978-79.

The Sensex is widely reported in both domestic and international

markets through print as well as electronic media.

Sensex is calculated using a market capitalization weighted method. As

per this methodology, the level of index reflects the total market value of all 30-
component stocks from different industries related to particular base period. The
total value of a company is determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the
number of shares outstanding.

Statisticians call an index of a set of combined variables (such as price

number of shares) Composite index. An Indexed number is used to represent the
results of this calculation in order to make the value easier to work with and track
over a time. IT is much easier to graph a chart base on indexed values then one
based on actual values world over majority of the well known indices are
constructed using “Market capitalization weighted method”. The divisor is only
link to original base period value of the sensex.

17
 Exchange management in India

The rupee was devalued twice in July 1991 and the

depreciation of the rupee was continued in the free market thereafter. The rupee
dollar rate was Rs17.1274 in March 1990 which fell to Rs32.6456 in February
1993 and thereafter. It stabilized around Rs31.3727 since March 1994 when
current account convertibility was introduced by the government. Since then the
rupee depreciated slowly and reached Rs.48 per dollar at one time and is stabilized
around Rs46 by mid 2003.

The experiment with limited convertibility was successful and the

government was emboldened to launch the full convertibility on trade account in
March 1994. Since then there was unification of the dual exchange rate into a
single floating rate which imparted considerable strength to the rupee. Now the
external value of the rupee is determined by the market forces fully.

Full convertible of rupee

AS referred to earlier the convertibility on trade account was launched on

March 1993 and exporters have become convertible at free market rates up to
100% of them.

18
Risk in foreign exchange market

There are different types of exchange risks in the foreign exchange market
which are set out briefly below:

1. Credit risk of customer: Credit rating by international banks and international

credit rating agencies will help reducing this risk. In India, ECGC and banks do
take this risk for the exporter.

2. Country risk: This is slightly different from the currency risk and arises out of
the policies of economic and political nature and their external payments position
and their export earnings to service the foreign creditors, convertibility or
otherwise of their currencies, etc.

3. Currency risk: This risk arises out of the volatility or otherwise of the currency
and its strength or weakness in terms of other currencies and interest rates and
relative degrees of inflation in the respective countries which influence the
exchange rates. It also depends on the hot money flows and speculative short terms
flows as between

4. Market risk: Risks of commodities their quality and the change of government
policies of taxation etc., are borne by the exporter or the ECGC in some cases. It
will thus be seen that some risk cannot be avoided or passed on by the exporter and

19
infact many more risks are to be borne by the importer than by the exporters, as the
government policy in India wants to encourage the exporters from the country.

CONCEPT

According to technical analysts, the cyclical trend in the movement of stock

prices is due to the changes in the attitude of investors, reflected in changes in the
demand and supply of securities. It is assumed that human reaction to similar
situations is by and large consistent and recurrence of a certain characteristic is
expected to spur a similar, though not an identical reaction.

Technical analysts have developed tools and techniques to study past

patterns and predict future price are

 Market value is determined solely by the interaction of supply and Demand

 Supply and demand are governed by numerous factors, both rational and
irrational.

 Ignoring minor fluctuations in the market, stock prices tend to move in trends
which persist for an appreciable length of time.

 Changes in trend are caused by shifts in supply and demand.

20
 Some chart patterns tent to repeat themselves.

21
ASSUMPTIONS:

The field of technical analysis is based on three assumptions:

1. The market discounts everything.

2. Price moves in trends.
3. History tends to repeat itself.

1. The Market Discounts Everything

A major critic of technical analysis is that it only considers price movement.
Ignoring the fundamental factors of the company. However, technical analysis
assumes that, at any given time, a stock’s price reflects every thing that has or
could affect the company – including fundamental factors. technical analysis
believe that the company’s fundamentals, along with broader economic factors and
market psychology, are all priced into the stock, removing the need to actually
consider these factors separately. This only leaves the analysis of price movement,
which technical theory views as a product of the supply and demand foe a
particular stock in the market.

2. Price Moves in Trends

In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow trend. This means
that after a trend has been established, the future price movement is more likely to
be in the same direction as the trend than to be against it. Most technical trading
strategies are based on this assumption.

22
3. History tends to repeat itself

Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat

itself, mainly in terms of price movement. The repetitive nature of price
movements is attributed to market psychology; in other words, market
participants tend to provide consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over
time. technical analysis uses chart patterns to analyze market movements and
understand trends. Although many these charts have been used for more than
100 years, they are still believed to be relevant because they illustrate patterns
in price movements that often repeat themselves.

METHODS OF Technical Analysis

Technical analysis has evolved over time, and there are a variety of methods
by which technical analysis is conducted. Contemporary technicians use various
tools, such as charts, indicators that can be broadly divided into two groups

 Aggregate Market Analysis Indicators

 Common stock Analysis Indicators

Aggregate Market Analysis indicators:

 Dow theory
 Breadth of the market (Advance decline Line)
 Market volume
 Short interest Ratio

23
DOW THEORY

The Dow theory has been around for almost 100 years, yet even in today’s
volatile and technology driven markets, the basic components of Dow theory still
remain valid. Developed by Charles Dow, refined by William Hamilton and
articulated by Robert Rhea, the Dow theory addresses not only technical analysis
and price action, but also market philosophy. Many of the ideas and comments put
forth by Dow and Hamilton became axioms of Wall Street. While there are those
who may think that it is different this time, a read through the Dow theory will at
least that stock market behaves the same today as it did almost 100 years ago.

The Dow theory presented below has been taken from Robert Rhea’s book.
The Dow theory. Although Dow theory is attributed to Charles Dow. It is William
Hamilton’s writings that serve as the corner stone for this book and the
development of the theory.

Also, it should be noted that most of the theory was developed with the Dow
Jones Rail and industrial averages in mind. Even though many concepts can be
applied to individual stocks, please keep in mind that these are broad concepts and
best applied to stocks as a group or index. When possible, we have also attempted
to link some of the realities of today’s market with the Dow theory as explained by
Dow, Hamilton and Rhea.

24
MARKET MOVEMENTS

Dow and Hamilton identified three types of price movements for the Dow
Jones Industrial and Rail averages Primary movements, secondary movements and
daily fluctuations. Primary moves last from a few months to many years and
represent the Broad underlying trend of the market. secondary (or reaction)
movements last from a few weeks to a few months and move counter to the
primary trend, daily fluctuations can move with or against the primary trend and
last from a few hours to a few days, but usually not more than a week.

Primary Movements

Primary movements represent the broad underlying trend of the market and
can last from few months to many years, these movements are typically referred to
as bull and bear markets. Once the primary trend has been identified. It will remain
in effect until proved otherwise. (We will address the methods for identifying the
primary trend later in this article.) Hamilton believed that the length and the
duration of the trend were largely indeterminable. Hamilton did study the averages
and came up with some general guidelines for length and duration, but warned
against attempting to apply these as rules for forecasting .

Many traders and investors get hung up on price and time targets. The reality
of the situation is that nobody knows where and when the primary trend will end.
The objective of Dow theory is to utilize what we do know, not to haphazardly
guess about what we don’t know. Through a set of guidelines, Dow Theory enables
investors to identify the primary trend and invest accordingly. Trying to predict the
mainly interested in catching the big moves of the primary trend. Success,
according to Hamilton and Dow, is measured by the ability to identify the primary
trend and stay with it.

25
26
Secondary/Intermediate Movements

Dow theory, a primary trend is the main direction in which the market is
moving Conversely, a secondary trend moves in the opposite direction of the
primary trend, or as a correction to the primary trend.

For example, an upward primary trend will be composed of secondary downward

trends. This is the movement from a consecutively higher high to a consecutively
lower high. In primary downward trend the secondary trend will be an upward
move, or a rally. This is the movement from a consecutively lower low to a
consecutively higher low.

Below is an illustration of secondary trend within a primary uptrend. Notice how

the short-term highs (shown by the horizontal lines) fail to create successively
higher peaks, suggesting that a short-term downtrend is present. Since the
retrenchments does not fall below the October low , traders would use.

This is to confirm the validity of the correction within a primary uptrend.

27
28
In general, a secondary, or Intermediate, trend typically lasts between three weeks
and three months, while the retrenchments of the secondary trend generally range
between one-third to two-thirds of the primary trend’s movements. For example, if
the primary upward trend moved the DJIA from 10,000 to 12,5000 (2,500 points)
the secondary trend would be expected to send the DJIA down at least 833 points
(one-third of 2,500).

Another important characteristic of a secondary trend is that its moves are

often more volatile than those of the primary move.

Minor trend

The last of the three trend types in Dow Theory is the minor trend, which is
defined as a market movement lasting less than three weeks. The minor trend is
generally the corrective moves within a secondary move, or those moves that go
against the direction of the seondary trend.

29
conclusion
Dow theory represents the beginning of technical analysis. Understanding
this theory should lead you to a better understanding of technical analysis and of an
analyst’s view of how markets work.

30
Advance /Decline line(A/D)

A technical indicator that plots changes in the value of the advance-decline

index over a certain time period. Each point on the chart is calculated by taking the
difference between the numbers of advancing/declining issues and adding the
result to the previous period’s value, as shown by the following formula.

A/D LINE = (# of Advancing Stocks -#of Declining stocks) + Previous

period’s A/D Line Value.

This indictor is used by many traders to confirm the strength of a current

trend and its likelihood of reversing. If the slope of the A/D line is up and the
market is trending upward then the market is said to be healthy.

 Market volume:-

Volume is accepted as an integral part of Technical Analysis. High

trading volume of securities on the NSE and BSE, other thing being equal, are
generally regarded as a bullish signal. A reversal in trend is signaled if a dull
volume accompanies a rally.

 Short interest Ratio:-

Some technical analysts are of the opinion that the ratio of numbers of shares
sold short relative to the average daily trading volume can be used as an indicator
forecasting the market trend as well as the stock trend.

 Trend:-

One of the most important concepts in technical analysis is that of trend.

The meaning in finance isn’t all that different from the general definition
of the term – a trend is really nothing more than the general direction in
which a security or market is headed. However, it’s not always this easy
to see a trend.

31
 Definition:

Unfortunately, trends are not always easy to see. In other words,

defining a trend goes well beyond the obvious. In any given chart, you
will probably notice that prices do not tend to move in a straight line in
any direction, but rather in a series of highs and lows. In technical
analysis, it is the movement of the highs and lows that constitutes a trend.
for example, an uptrend is classified as a series of higher highs and
higher lows, while a downtrend is one of lower lows and lower highs.

Types of Trend
There are three types of trend:

 Uptrend (bull market)

 Downtrend (Bear market)
 Sideways/Horizontal Trends

As the names imply, when each successive peak and trough is higher. It’s
referred to as an upward trend. If the peaks and troughs are getting lower. It’s a
downtrend. When there is little movement up or down in the peaks and troughs,
it’s a sideways or horizontal trend. If you want to get really technical, you
might even say that a sideways trend is actually not a trend on its own, but a
lack of a well-defined trend in either direction. In any case, the market can
really only trend in these three ways: up, down or nowhere.

Trend Lengths

Alomni with these three directions, there are three trend classifications. A
trend of any direction can be classified as a long-term trend, intermediate trend
or a short-term trend. In terms of the stock market, a major trend is generally
categorized as one lasting longer than a year. An intermediate trend is
considered to last between one and three months and a near-term trend is

32
anything less than a month. A long-term trend is composed of several
intermediate trends, which often move against the direction of the major trend
is upward and there is a downward correction in price movement followed by a
continuation of the uptrend, the correction is considered to be an intermediate
trend. The short-term trends are components of both major and intermediate
trends. Take a look a Figure 4 to get a sense of how these three trend lengths
might look.

Trend lines

A trend line is a simple charting technique that adds a line to a chart to

represent the trend in the market or a stock. Drawing a trend line is as simple as
drawing a straight line that follows a general trend. These lines are used to
clearly show the trend and are also used in the identification of trend reversals.

33
TOOLS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :

COMMON STOCK ANALYSIS INDICATORS:

Support

A support level is a price level where the price tends to find support as it is
going down. This means the price is more likely to “bounce” off this level
rather than break through it. However, once the price has passed this level, even
by a small amount, it is likely to continue dropping until it finds another support
level.

Resistance

A resistance level is the opposite of a support level. It is where the price

tends to find resistance as it is going up. This means the price is more likely to
“bounce” off even by a small amount, it is likely that it will continue rising until
it finds another resistance level. Identifying support and resistance levels
support and resistance levels can be identified by trend lines. Some traders
believe in using pivot point calculations.

The more often a support/resistance level is “tested” (touch and bounced off of
by price), the more significance given to that specific level.

If a price breaks past a support level, that support level often becomes a new
resistance level. The opposite is true as well, if price breaks a resistance level, it
will often find support at that level in the future.

34
35
Types of charts

There are four types of charts

1. Line chart:

The most basic of the four charts Is this line chart because it represents only
the closing prices over a set period of time. The line is formed by connecting
the closing prices over the time frame. Line charts do not provide visual
information of the trading range for the individual points such as the high,
low and opening prices. However, the closing price is often considered to be
the most important price in stock data compared to the high and low for the
day and this is why it is the only values used in line charts.

36
2. Bar charts

The bar chart expands on the line chart by adding several more key pieces of
information to each data point. This vertical line represents the high and low for
the trading period, along with the closing price. The close and open are
represented on the vertical line by a horizontal dash. The opening price on a bar
chart is illustrated by the dash that is located on the left side of the vertical bar.
Conversely, the close is represented by the dash on the right. Generally, if the
left dash(open) is lower than the right dash(close) then the bar will be shaded
black, representing an up period for the stock, which means it has gained value.
A bar that is colored red signals that the stock has gone down in value over that
period. When this is the case, the dash on the right (close) is lower than the dash
on the left (open)

37
Candlestick charts

Candlestick charts are an effective way of visualizing price movements.

There are two basic candlesticks:

 Bullish: when the close is higher than the open (usually green or white)
 Bearish: when the close is lower than the open (usually red or black)

38
There are three main parts to a candlestick:

1. Upper shadow: the vertical line between the high of the day and the close
(bullish candle) or open (bearish candle)
2. Real Body: the difference between the open and close; colored portion of
the candlestick
3. Lower shadow: the vertical line between the low of the day and the open
(bullish candle) or close (bearish candle)

The power of candlesticks forming reversal and continuation patterns.

39
4. Point and Figure Charts

The point and figure chart is not well known or used by the average investor
but it has had a long history of use dating back to the first technical traders. This
type of chart reflects price movements and is not as concerned about time and
volume in the formulation of the points. The point and figure chart removes the
noise, or insignificant price movement, in the stock, which can distort trader’s
views of the price trends. These types of charts also try to neutralize the skewing
effect that time has on chart analysis.

when first looking at a point and figure chart, you will notice a series of Xs
and Os. The Xs represent upward price trends and the represent downward price
trends. There are also numbers and letters in the chart; these represent months, and
give investors an idea of the date. Each box on the chart represents the price scale,
which adjusts depending on the price of the stock; the higher the stock’s price the
more each box represents. On most charts where the price is between $20 and
$100, a box represents $1, or 1 point for the stock. The other critical point of
appoint and figure chart is the reversal criteria. This is usually set at three but it can
also be set according to the chartists discretion. The reversal criteria set how much
the price has to move away from the high or low in the price trend to create a new
trend or , in other words, how much the price has to move in order for a column of
Xs to become a column of Os, or vice versa. When the price trend has moved from
one trend to another, it shifts to the right, signaling a trend change.

Conclusion:

Charts are one of the most fundamental aspects of technical analysis. It is

important that you clearly understand what is being shown on a chart and the
information that it provides.

40
 PRICE PATTERN INDICATORS
HEAD AND SHOULDER:

The head & shoulder chart pattern is a heavily used and quite profitable
charting pattern, giving easily understood buy and sell signals.

The logic of a head & shoulder pattern is as follows:

1. Left shoulder: bulls push prices upwards making new highs; however these
new highs are short lived and prices retreat.
2. Head prices don’t retreat for long because bulls make another run, this time
succeeding and surpassing the previous high; a bullish sign. Prices retreat
again, only to find support yet again.
3. Right shoulder: the bulls push higher again, but this time fail to make a
higher high. This is very bearish, because bears did not allow the bulls to
make a new higher or even an equal high. The bears push prices back to
support (confirmation line); this is a pivotal moment – will bulls make
another push higher or have the bears succeeded in stopping the move
higher.

SELL SIGNAL

If prices break the confirmation support line, it is clear that the bears are in
charge; thus, when price closes below the confirmation line, a strong sell signal
is given.

Note that a downward sloping confirmation lines generally seen as a more

powerful Head & Shoulders patter, mainly because a downward sloping
confirmation line means that prices are making lower lows.

The opposite of the Head &Shoulders pattern is the reverse Head

&Shoulders pattern which is another strong pattern, this time a bottoming
pattern.
41
The reasoning behind a Head& Shoulders pattern is as follows:

1. Left shoulder: bears push prices downwards making new lows; however,
bulls begin to return and push prices slightly higher.
2. Head: price gains don’t last long before bears return and push prices even
lower than before ; a bearish sign. Prices then find buyers at the new lower
prices.
3. Right shoulder: the bears push downward again, but this time fails to make a
lower low. This is generally seen as bullish sign; bears were unable to push
prices further down. Decision time occurs when the price is pushed higher
back to support (confirmation line ): either bears will push prices back down
or bulls will push prices higher, regaining control of the stock, future, or
currency pair.

42
Buy signal

When price closes above the confirmation line, a strong buy signal is given.
Usually an upward sloping confirmation line is seen as a more powerful Reverse
Head& Shoulders pattern, mainly because an upward sloping confirmation line
means that prices are making higher highs.

Volume analysis is important when using the Head& Shoulders chart pattern.

Volume and Head& Shoulders

When the confirmation line of a Head& Shoulders pattern breaks to the downside,
a large amount of volume should occur as well.

The chart below of General Electric (GE) shows a sharp increase in volume
when the confirmation line of the Head& Shoulders pattern was broken.

43
 In addition to the sharp increase in volume, the gap down on the chart of GE
also gave strong indication to sell when the confirmation line was pierced.

The same concept applies to a Reverse Head& Shoulders pattern, the break
of the confirmation line should be accompanied by an increase in volume.

The chart below of gold futures illustrates a rise in volume when the confirmation
line was pierced:

44
 The h Head& Shoulders pattern is a highly effective classic charting pattern.
Other similar chart patterns are the Double Top formation (see: double top ) and
the Double bottom formation.

NECKLINE:

A level of support or resistance found on a Head& Shoulders pattern that is

used by traders to determine strategic areas to place orders. Each peak of a regular
Head& Shoulders pattern falls toward a support level, also known as a neckline,
before it rises to create the next peak. A move below the neckline (in the case of a
head and shoulders top) is used by traders as a signal of a reversal of the current
uptrend.

45
 It is possible to see the slope of a neckline be drawn at a slight angle rather
than horizontal like the one shown in the image above. However, regardless of its
slope, a move below the neckline of a regular head and shoulders pattern is always
used as a signal of a move lower.

In the case of and inverse head and shoulders, the neckline is found as a
level of resistance that has prevented the price from heading higher. A move
beyond the neckline in this case would be used to signal the start of an uptrend.

Double Top and Bottoms

The double top and double bottom is another pair of well-known chart
patterns whose names don’t leave much to the imagination. These two reversal
patterns illustrate a security’s attempt to continue an existing trend. Upon several
attempts to move higher, the trend is reversed and a new trend begins. These chart
patterns formed will often resemble what looks like a “w” (for a double bottom) or
an “M” (double top)

46
Double Top

The double-top pattern is found at the peaks of an upward trend and is a

clear signal that the preceding upward trend is weakening and that buyers are
losing interest. Upon completion of this pattern, the trend is considered to be
reversed and the security is expected to move lower.

The first stage of this pattern is the creation of a new high during the
upward trend, which, after peaking, faces resistance and sells off to a level of
support. The next stage of this pattern will see the price start to move back towards
the level of resistance found in the previous run-up, which again sells off back to
the support level. The pattern is completed when the security falls below (or breaks
down) the support level that had backstopped each move the security made, thus
marking the beginnings of a downward trend.

47
 It’s important to note that the price does not need to touch the level of
resistance but should be close to the prior peak. Also, when using this chart pattern
one should wait for the price to break below the key level of support before
entering> trading before the signal is formed can yield disastrous results, as the
pattern is only setting up the possibility for the trend reversal and could trade
within this banded range for some time without falling through.

This pattern is a clear illustration of a battle between buyers and sellers. The buyers
are attempting to push the security but are facing resistance, which prevents the
continuation of the upward trend. After this goes on a couple of times, the buyers
in the market start to give up or dry up, and the sellers start to take a stranglehold
of the security, sending it down into a new downtrend.

Again, volume should be an important focus as one should look for an

increase in volume when the security falls below the support level. Also, as in
other chart patterns, do not be alarmed if there is a return to the previous support
level that has become a resistance level in the newly established trend.

Double Bottom

This is the opposite chart pattern of the double top as it signals a reversal of the
downtrend into an uptrend. This pattern will closely resemble the shape of a “W”

48
49
 The double bottom is formed when a downtrend sets a new low in the price
movement. This downward move will find support, which prevents the security
from moving lower. Upon finding support, the security, the security will rally to a
new high, which forms the security’s resistance point. The next stage of this
pattern is another sell-off that takes the security down to the previous low. These
two support tests form the two bottoms in the chart pattern. But again, the security
finds support and heads back up. The pattern is confirmed when the price moves
above the resistance the security; faced on the prior move up.

The security needs to break through the support line to signal a reversal in the
downward trend and should be done on higher volume. As in the double top, do
not be surprised if the price returns to the breakout point to test the new support
level in the upward trend.

Price Objective and Adjustments

It’s important to get an idea as to the size of the resulting move once the
signal has been formed. In both the double top and double bottom, the initial price
objective can be measured by taking the price distance between the support and
resistance levels or the range that chart pattern trades.

For examples, assume in a double top that the upward trend peaks at Rs500 and
retraces to Rs400 to form the support level. Assuming everything follows through
on the chart pattern and the support level is broken at Rs400, the initial price
objective should be set at Rs300(Rs400-Rs100).

Triangle

This is no different for the triangle patterns, which clearly form the shape of
a triangle. The basic construct of this chart pattern is the convergence of two
trendiness-flat, ascending or descending –with the price of the security moving
between the two trend lines.

There are three types of triangles, which vary in construct and significance:

50
  The symmetrical triangle
 The descending triangle and
 The ascending triangle.

The symmetrical triangle is mainly considered to be a continuation pattern

that signals a period of consolidation in a trend followed by a resumption of the
prior trend. It is formed by the convergence of a descending resistance line and an
ascending support line. The two trend lines in the formation of this triangle should
have a similar slope converging at a point known as the apex. The price of the
security will bounce between these trend lines, towards the apex, and typically
breakout in the direction of the prior trend.

If preceded by a downward trend, the focus should be on a break below the

ascending support line. If preceded by an upward trend, look for a break above the
continuation of the previous trend. A break in the opposite direction of the prior
trend should signal the formation of a new trend.

51
 Above is an example of a symmetrical triangle that is preceded by an
upward trend. The first part of this pattern is the creation of a high in the upward
trend, which is followed by a sell-off to a low. The price then moves to smoother
high that is lower than the first high and again sells off to a low, which is higher
than the previous low. At this point the trend lines can be drawn, which creates the
apex. The price will continue to move between these lines until breakout.

The pattern is complete when the price breakout of the triangle –look for an
increase in volume in the direction of the breakout. This pattern is also susceptible
to a return to the previous support or resistance line that it just broke through, so
make sure to watch for this level to hold if it does indeed break out.

Ascending & Descending Triangles:

Two closely related variants of the triangle pattern are the Ascending and
Descending Triangle pattern; these two patterns are shown below in the chart:

52
Ascending Triangle

An ascending triangle is viewed as being more bullish than the regular

Triangle patterns. With an ascending Triangle, higher lows are being made (bullish
sign) and sometimes higher highs are being made (also a bullish sign)

Buy Signal

As with the regular Triangle formation, the Ascending Triangle gives a buy signal
when the resistance line is penetrated to the upside. Also, the signal is generally

53
stronger if prices have been in an uptrend prior to the Ascending Triangle and
upside breakout.

Descending Triangle

The Descending Triangle is viewed as being more bearish than the regular Triangle
patterns. When a Descending Triangle is formed, lower lows are being made
(bearish sign) and quite often, lower highs are being made (generally seen as
bearish).

Sell signal

With the Descending Triangle formation, a sell signal occurs when the support line
is penetrated. Traders usually view the sell signal as being stronger if prices have
been in a confirmed downtrend prior to the Descending triangle formation and
down side breakout.

54
Company profile

55
 COMPANY PROFILE

RELIGARE SECURITIES LTD

Religare Enterprises Limited (REL) is a global financial services group with a presence across
Asia, Africa, Middle East, Europe and the Americas. In India, REL’s largest market, the group offers a
wide array of products and services ranging from insurance, asset management, broking and lending
solutions to investment banking and wealth management. The group has also pioneered the concept of
investments in alternative asset classes such as arts and films. With 10,000 plus employees across
multiple geographies, REL serves over a million clients, including corporates and institutions, high net
worth families and individuals, and retail investors. REL is part of a family of companies that fall under
the broader Religare brand, which includes other global businesses such as diagnostics, aviation and
travel, wellness retail, and IT products and solutions.

Vision & Mission

Vision - To build Religare as a globally trusted brand in the financial services domain.

Mission - Providing complete financial care driven by the core values of diligence and
transparency.

Brand Essence - Core brand essence is Diligence and Religare is driven by ethical and
dynamic processes for wealth creation.

56
Religare Enterprises Limited

Religare Securities Limited Religare Finvest Limited

 Equity Broking  Lending and Distribution business

 Online Investment Portal
 Portfolio Management Services
 Depository Services Religare Insurance Broking Limited

 Life Insurance
Religare Commodities Limited  General Insurance
 Reinsurance
 Commodity Broking

Religare Arts Initiative Limited

Religare Realty Limited
 Business of Art
 In house Real Estate Management Company  Gallery launched - arts-i

Religare Capital Markets Limited Religare Venture Capital Limited

 Corporate Broking  Private Equity and Investment Manager

 Institutional Broking
 Derivatives Sales
 Corporate Finance Religare Asset Management*

57
OUR BRAND IDENTITY
Name

Religare is a Latin word that translates as 'to Bind Together'. This name has been chosen to
reflect the integrated nature of the financial services the company offers.

Symbol

The Religare name is paired with the symbol of a four-leaf clover. Traditionally, it is considered
good fortune to find a four-leaf clover as there is only one four-leaf clover for every 10,000
three-leaf clovers found.

For us, each leaf of the clover has a special meaning. It is a symbol of Hope. Trust. Care. Good
Fortune.

For the world, it is the symbol of Religare.

The first leaf of the clover represents Hope. The aspirations to succeed. The dream of
becoming. Of new possibilities. It is the beginning of every step and the foundation on which
a person reaches for the stars.

The second leaf of the clover represents Trust. The ability to place one’s own faith in another.
To have a relationship as partners in a team. To accomplish a given goal with the balance that
brings satisfaction to all, not in the binding, but in the bond that is built.

The third leaf of the clover represents Care. The secret ingredient that is the cement in every
relationship. The truth of feeling that underlines sincerity and the triumph of diligence in
every aspect. From it springs true warmth of service and the ability to adapt to evolving
environments with consideration to all.

The fourth and final leaf of the clover represents Good Fortune. Signifying that rare ability to
meld opportunity and planning with circumstance to generate those often looked for
remunerative moments of success.

Hope. Trust. Care. Good Fortune. All elements perfectly combine in the emblematic and rare,
four-leaf clover to visually symbolize the values that bind together and form the core of the
Religare vision.

58
PRODUCTS & SERVICES OF RELIGARE SECURITIES LTD

Equity:

Race- Pro, you can place online trades for virtually any stock listed on NSE & BSE. Race-pro
offers plenty of powerful ways to place stock orders ... along with the trading tools and services that help
you move quickly and conveniently. Ways to trade stock

Delivery based Trading:

Place delivery based orders for all stocks listed on NSE & BSE

Intra-day Trading:
Execute Margin Orders up to 3 to 4 times your available funds. The same is available for select
group of stocks listed on NSE & BSE.

BTST:
customers should sell shares before they receive the same in their Demat account. They can avail
of this facility 1st and 2nd day after the buy order date.

Derivative

With a Derivative-approved Use trade account, you can pursue a wide range of Futures &
Options trading strategies with speed and ease. The company delivers the support, information and
structure

Mutual.Fund

At Use trade, we offer access to more than 1000 mutual fund schemes from leading fund families.
These funds provide broad diversification and cover a range of investment objectives, philosophies, asset
classes and risk exposures. Trades may be placed via the Internet, Interactive Voice Response (IVR)
phone system or with a broker.

59
IPO
IPO or Initial Public Offer presents excellent opportunities for gaining high returns on your
investments in a relatively short period of time. We have made investing in IPO’s hassle free. All that is
required is “Buying POWER” and rest is at the click of a button. No paperwork no queues. Get
information on IPO news, Forthcoming IPO’s and a lot more on Usectrade.com

Commodities

Metals, energies, grains and livestock — whatever you wish to trade, you'll find it on our commodity
trading system. Plus, you'll get a comprehensive suite of educational, analytical, and execution tools that
makes trading commodities easy.

Insurance

Use trade in association with Birla Sun life brings you a secure insurance option without the
hassles and worries of a conservative insurance plan. With least paperwork, you get the dual benefit of a
risk cover and savings. What's more, we shall send you regular reminders about your premium payments
due.

Bonds

Fixed income securities can help reduce your risk within an investment portfolio while providing
a steady stream of income over time. Currently you can choose to invest online in GOI Bonds. If you are
looking to diversify your portfolio, possibly improve your tax efficiency and/or reducing your risk
exposure, you may want to consider making fixed income securities part of your personal investment
strategy

60
Analysis of the Company

Strengths:

 Company has a brand image in the market

 Providing better services to the customers.

 Charges offered by the company are less compared to other stock broking firms.

 Team of talented and committed professionals available to improve company’s

performance.

Weakness:

 Competition from cheap imports.

 Not available for rural area customers.

Opportunities:

 Securities will provide tremendous scope for diversification and growth.

 Opportunity to support securities operations by supplying products from India.

 By proving better services helps to acquire new more number of customers.

Threats:

 Constant pressure to be cost competitive to meet customer expectations.

 Relentless pressure to maintain profitability due to rising input/raw material prices.

 Heavy competition from other stock broking companies.

61
DATA ANALYSIS
&
PRESENTATION

62
 TOOLS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

1. Moving averages:

Introduction
Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy to use tools available
to the technical analyst. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot
trends, something that is especially helpful in volatile markets. They also
form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays.

Simple Moving Average(SMA)

A simple moving average is formed by computing the average (mean) price

of a security over a specified number of periods. While it is possible to create
moving averages from the Open, the High, and the Low data points, most moving
averages are created using the closing price. For example: a 5-day simple moving
average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the last 5 days and dividing
the total by 5.
10 +11 +12 +13+14 = 60
(60 / 5) =12
The calculation is repeated for each price bar on the chart. The averages are then
joined to form a smooth curving line – the moving average line, Continuing our
example, if the next closing price in the average is 15, then this new period would
be added and the oldest day, which is 10, would be dropped. The new 5-day s
simple moving average would be calculated as follows:
11 + 12 + 13 + 14 +15 = 65
(65 / 5) = 13
Over the last 2 days, the SMA moved from 12 to 13. As new days are added, the
old days will be subtracted and the moving average will continue to move over.

63
 DA Daily close 10 days SMA
Y
1 60.33
2 59.44
3 59.38
4 59.38
5 59.22
6 58.88
7 59.55
8 59.5
9 58.66
10 59.05 59.34
11 57.15 59.02
12 57.32 58.81
13 57.65 58.64
14 56.14 58.31
15 55.31 57.92
16 55.86 57.62
17 54.92 57.16
18 53.74 56.58
19 54.80 56.19
20 54.86 55.78
20

64
 2. Exponential Moving Average(EMA)

In order to reduce the lag in simple moving averages, technicians often use
exponential moving averages (also called exponentially weighted moving
averages).EMA’s reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent prices relative
to older prices. The weighting applied to the most recent price depends on the
specified period of the moving average. The shorter the EMA’s period , the more
weight that will be applied to the most recent price.

For example: a 10-preriod exponential moving average weighs the most recent
price 18.18% while a 20-period EMA weighs the most recent price 9.52%. As
we’ll see, the calculating and EMA is much harder than calculating an SMA. The
important thing to remember is that the exponential moving average puts more
weight on recent prices. As such, it will react quicker to recent price changes than a
simple moving average.

Here’s the calculation formula.

65
Exponential Moving Average Calculation

Exponential Moving Averages can be specified in two ways – as a percent

based EMA or as a period- based EMA has a parameter that represents the duration
of the EMA.

The formula for an exponential moving average is :

EMA(current)= ((Price(current) – EMA (prev)) x multiplier) + EMA(prev)

For a percentage – based EMA, “multiplier” is equal to the EMA’s specified

percentage.

For a period based EMA, “Multiplier is calculated like this:

(2 / (Time periods + 1)) = (2 / (10 + 1)) = 0.1818(18.18%)

This means that a 10-period EMA is equivalent to an 18.18%

EMA

(C – P) = (61.33 – 63.682) = -2.352

(C – P) x K = -2.352 x .181818 = -0.4276

(C – P) x K) + P = -0.4276 + 63.682 = 63.254

66
EMA PERIOD (N): 10
Smothing Constant (K) 0.181818

Previou
s
Period’s 10 Day
Period Date Close© EMA(P) EMA (X)
1 9-Nov-99 60.33  
2 10-Nov-99 59.44  
3 11-Nov-99 59.38  
4 12-Nov-99 59.38  
5 13-Nov-99 59.22  
6 14-Nov-99 59.88  
7 15-Nov-99 59.55  
8 16-Nov-99 59.5  
9 17-Nov-99 58.66  
10 18-Nov-99 59.05 59.439
11 19-Nov-99 57.15 59.439 59.121
12 20-Nov-99 57.32 59.121 58.909
13 21-Nov-99 57.65 58.909 58.736
14 22-Nov-99 56.14 58.736 58.412
15 23-Nov-99 55.31 58.412 58.021
16 24-Nov-99 55.86 58.021 57.619
17 25-Nov-99 54.92 57.619 57.156
18 26-Nov-99 53.74 57.156 56.58
19 27-Nov-99 54.8 56.58 56.194
20 28-Nov-99 54.86 56.194 55.775

67
Breadth of Market Theory

A technical analysis theory that predicts the strength of the market according
to the number of stocks that advance or decline in a particular trading day. The
breadth of market indicator is used to gauge the number of stocks advancing and
declining for the day. If the breadth indicator is strong, this theory predicts that the
market will be rising and vice versa.

Related terms

Breadth Indicators

1. Advance/Decline Index
2. Advance/decline Line (A/D)
3. 52- Week High/Low
4. Cumulative Volume index (CVI)

68
Advance/Decline index:

A technical analysis tool that represents the total difference between the
number of advancing and declining security prices. This index is considered one of
the best indicators of market movements as a whole. Stock indexes such as the
Dow Jones Industrial Average only tell us the strength of 30 stocks, whereas the
advance/decline index can provide much more insight into the movements of the
market.

In general, rising values of the advance/decline can be used to confirm the

likelihood that an upward trend will continue. If the market is up but there are
more declining issues than advancing ones, it’s usually a sign that the market is
losing its breadth and may be getting ready to change direction.

Imagine that the advance/decline index on the S&P 500 is currently at 1835.
If at the end of the last trading day, 300 stocks were up (advance) and 200 were
down (decline). 100 would be added to the advance/decline index value, pushing it
to 1935.

When this index is plotted on a chart, it is known as the “advance/decline line”.

Advance/Decline Line (A/D)

A TECHNICAL INDICATOR THAT PLOTS changes in the value of the

advance-declining index over a certain time period. Each point on the chart is
calculated by taking the difference between the numbers of V advance/decline
issues and adding the result to the previous period value, as shown by the
following formula :

A/D LINe =(# of advancing stocks -#of declining stocks)+previous periods A/D
line value

This indicator is used by many traders to confirm the strength of a current trend
and its likelihood of reversing. if the markets are up but the A/DLINE IS Sloping
downwards, it’s Usually a sign that the markets are losing their breadth and may be

69
setting up to head in the other direction .if the slope of the A/D line is up and the
market is trending upward then the market is said to be healthy.

52-WEEK HIGH/LOW

The highest and lowest price at which a stock has traded in the past 12 months, or
52 weeks.

Many investors see the 52- week high or low as an important indicator. For
example, a value investor may view a stock trading at a 52-week low as an initial
indication of a possible value play (a stock sitting at a price below its intrinsic
value. An astute value investor will have to conduct a lot more analysis to come to
this conclusion, but the fact that the stock is trading at its 52-week low can be a
potential starting point.

Cumulative Volume index(CVI)

A MOMENTUM INDICATOR that gauges the movement of funds into and

out of the entire stock market by adding the difference between advancing and
declining stocks to a running total. By showing the direction of volume flow, the
CVI is very similar to OBV. The difference between the two indicators is in the
actual methods of calculation. CVI uses actual up and down volume statistics while
OBV generalizes the closing prices of a particular security.

CVI can be useful in determining the overall trend and its starting point. Any
divergences between the CVI and the market index are indicators of a future
correction.

Momentum

Rate of change (ROC) and Momentum

Introduction and calculation

Rate of change (ROC) indicator is a very simple yet effective momentum

oscillator that measures the percent change in price from one period to the next.
The ROC calculation compares the current price with the price n periods ago .

ROC=((Today’s close – close n periods ago) / (close n periods ago)) * 100

70
The plot forms an oscillator that fluctuates above and below the zero line as the
rate of Change moves from positive to negative. The oscillator can be used as other
Momentum oscillator by looking for higher lows, lower highs, positive and
negative divergences, and crosses above and below zero for signals

The chart of Lucent shows that a large negative divergence formed in Dec-99 and
the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was
a superb sell signal, the ROC can produce whipsaws as it moves above and below
zero. As with most technical analysis as well as other non-momentum based
indicators.

Rate of change (ROC)

Rate-of –change (ROC) is a centered oscillator that also fluctuates above and
below zero.

As its name implies, ROC measures the percentage price change over a given time
period. For example: 20 days. The bigger the difference between the current price

71
and the price 20 days ago, the higher the value of the ROC Oscillator. When the
indicator is above 0, the percentage price change is negative (bearish).

As with MACD, ROC is not bound by upper or lower limits. This is typical
of most centered oscillators and can make it difficult to spot overbought and
oversold conditions.

This ROC chart indicates that readings above +20% and below -20% represent
extremes and are unlikely to last for an extended period of time. However, the only
way to gauge that +20% and -20% are extreme readings is from past observations.
Also, +20% and -20% represent extremes for this particular security and may not
be the same for other securities. Banded oscillators offer a better alternative to
gauge extreme price levels.

MACD(MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE):-

Developed by Gerald Appel, Moving Average Convergence /Divergence

(MACD) is one of the simplest and most reliable indicators available. MACD uses
moving averages, which are lagging indicators, to include some trend-following
characteristics. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential
moving average (EMA) FROM THE 12-day EMA. A nine –day EMA of the
MACD, called the “signal line”, is then potted on top of the MACD, functioning as
a trigger for buy and sell signals. The MACD proves most effective in wide-
swinging trading markets. There are three popular ways to use the MACD:

1. Crossovers
2. 2. Overbought/ oversold conditions, and
3. Divergences.

72
1. Crossovers

The basic MACD trading rule is to sell when the MACD falls below its signal
line. Similarly, a buy signal occurs when the MACD rises above its signal line. It is
also popular to buy/sell when the MACD goes above/below zero.

Overbought/ oversold conditions

The MACD is also useful as an overbought/oversold indicator. When the shorter

moving average pulls away dramatically from the longer moving average(i.e., the
MACD rises), it is likely that the security price is overextending and will soon
return to more realistic levels. MACD overbought and oversold conditions exist
vary from security to security.

Divergences

Traders also watch for a move above or below the zero line because this signals the
position of the short-term average relative to the long-term average. When The
MACD is above zero, the short-term average is above the long-term average,
which signals upward momentum. The opposite is true when the MACD is below
zero. As you can see from the chart above, the zero line often acts as an area of
support and resistance for the indicator. ”Buy” arrows when the MACD rose
above its signal line and drew “sell” when the MACD fell below its signal line.

73
74
 HNICAL ANALYSIS

COMPUTATION OF VARIOUS AVERAGES

HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD

Date- Previous day 9 days Previous day Previous day MACD(12-26)

hindalco Close Price EMA avg EMA 12 days avg EMA 26 days avg Days
2-Jan-07 178.05          
31-Jan-07 176.15          
1-Feb-07 183          
28-Feb-07 139.15          
1-Mar-07 137.1          
30-Mar-07 130.3          
2-Apr-07 127.55          
30-Apr-07 146.05          
3-May-07 145.9 151.4722        
31-May-07 140.6 151.4722 147.3111        
1-Jun-07 140.95 147.3111 143.4        
29-Jun-07 160.15 143.4 140.8611 150.4125      
2-Jul-07 158.35 140.8611 142.9944 150.4125 148.770833      
31-Jul-07 169.95 142.9944 146.6444 148.770833 148.254167      
1-Aug-07 159.1 146.6444 149.8444 148.254167 146.2625      
30-Aug-07 159.2 149.8444 153.3611 146.2625 147.933333      
31-Aug-07 157.9 153.3611 154.6778 147.933333 149.666667      
3-Sep-07 160.55 154.6778 156.3056 149.666667 152.1875      
28-Sep-07 172.2 156.3056 159.8167 152.1875 155.908333      
1-Oct-07 172.3 159.8167 163.3 155.908333 158.095833      
31-Oct-07 196.5 163.3 167.3389 158.095833 162.3125      
1-Nov-07 187.75 167.3389 170.6056 162.3125 166.241667      
30-Nov-07 185.4 170.6056 172.3222 166.241667 169.945833      

75
 3-Dec-07 191.9 172.3222 175.9667 169.945833 172.591667      
31-Dec-07 214.85 175.9667 182.15 172.591667 177.3      
1-Jan-08 215.5 182.15 188.55 177.3 181.095833 165.6307692 15.4650641
31-Jan-08 163.95 188.55 188.9278 181.095833 181.5 165.6307692 165.0884615 16.41153846
1-Feb-08 177.6 188.9278 189.5278 181.5 183.033333 165.0884615 165.1442308 17.88910256
29-Feb-08 202.6 189.5278 192.8944 183.033333 186.758333 165.1442308 165.8980769 20.86025641
3-Mar-08 190.15 192.8944 192.1889 186.758333 189.225 165.8980769 167.8596154 21.36538462
31-Mar-08 165.1 192.1889 189.6722 189.225 188.633333 167.8596154 168.9365385 19.69679487
1-Apr-08 167.9 189.6722 187.7278 188.633333 188.266667 168.9365385 170.3826923 17.88397436
30-Apr-08 193.85 187.7278 187.9444 188.266667 188.045833 170.3826923 172.9326923 15.11314103
2-May-08 185.95 187.9444 184.7333 188.045833 187.895833 172.9326923 174.4673077 13.42852564
30-May-08 192.3 184.7333 182.1556 187.895833 188.470833 174.4673077 176.2519231 12.21891026
2-Jun-08 182.4 182.1556 184.2056 188.470833 187.679167 176.2519231 177.8596154 9.819551282
30-Jun-08 142.3 184.2056 180.2833 187.679167 181.633333 177.8596154 177.9115385 3.721794872
1-Jul-08 134.75 180.2833 172.7444 181.633333 174.904167 177.9115385 176.9346154 -2.030448718
31-Jul-08 141.35 172.7444 167.3222 174.904167 173.020833 176.9346154 176.2807692 -3.259935897
1-Aug-08 141 167.3222 164.6444 173.020833 169.970833 176.2807692 175.1673077 -5.196474359
29-Aug-08 122.4 164.6444 159.5889 169.970833 163.2875 175.1673077 173.7557692 -10.46826923
1-Sep-08 122.15 159.5889 151.6222 163.2875 157.620833 173.7557692 172.3307692 -14.7099359
30-Sep-08 98.25 151.6222 141.8778 157.620833 152.05 172.3307692 170.0365385 -17.98653846
1-Oct-08 98.95 141.8778 131.5056 152.05 146.304167 170.0365385 167.6673077 -21.36314103
31-Oct-08 60.5 131.5056 117.9611 146.304167 135.191667 167.6673077 163.3711538 -28.17948718
3-Nov-08 63.45 117.9611 109.2 135.191667 124.983333 163.3711538 159.1846154 -34.20128205
28-Nov-08 52.95 109.2 100.1111 124.983333 113.370833 159.1846154 153.6634615 -40.29262821
1-Dec-08 51.4 100.1111 90.11667 113.370833 102.454167 153.6634615 148.4192308 -45.9650641
31-Dec-08 51.4 90.11667 80.16111 102.454167 94.8791667 148.4192308 143.2653846 -48.38621795
1-Jan-09 54.2 80.16111 72.58333 94.8791667 88.1666667 143.2653846 137.9692308 -49.8025641
30-Jan-09 48.95 72.58333 64.45 88.1666667 80.4666667 137.9692308 131.5884615 -51.12179487
2-Feb-09 46.15 64.45 58.66111 80.4666667 72.5625 131.5884615 125.075 -52.5125
27-Feb-09 38.6 58.66111 51.95556 72.5625 65.5791667 125.075 120.2538462 -54.67467949
2-Mar-09 38.05 51.95556 49.46111 65.5791667 58.5708333 120.2538462 114.8865385 -56.31570513

76
31-Mar-09 52.05 49.46111 48.19444 58.5708333 54.7208333 114.8865385 109.0961538 -54.37532051
1-Apr-09 52.85 48.19444 48.18333 54.7208333 50.8791667 109.0961538 103.8153846 -52.93621795
29-Apr-09 53.75 48.18333 48.44444 50.8791667 50.3166667 103.8153846 99.53269231 -49.21602564
4-May-09 61.45 48.44444 49.56111 50.3166667 50.15 99.53269231 95.43846154 -45.28846154
29-May-09 84.65 49.56111 52.94444 50.15 52.7916667 95.43846154 91.23846154 -38.44679487
1-Jun-09 87.65 52.94444 57.24444 52.7916667 55.8125 91.23846154 87.45769231 -31.64519231
30-Jun-09 86.45 57.24444 61.72222 55.8125 58.7333333 87.45769231 83.38653846 -24.65320513
1-Jul-09 83.5 61.72222 66.71111 58.7333333 61.175 83.38653846 79.58269231 -18.40769231
31-Jul-09 100.3 66.71111 73.62778 61.175 65.4541667 79.58269231 77.96730769 -12.51314103
3-Aug-09 108.3 73.62778 79.87778 65.4541667 70.6333333 77.96730769 76.95 -6.316666667
31-Aug-09 106 79.87778 85.78333 70.6333333 76.25 76.95 75.59038462 0.659615385
1-Sep-09 104.1 85.78333 91.37778 76.25 81.7541667 75.59038462 74.17115385 7.583012821
30-Sep-09 129.05 91.37778 98.88889 81.7541667 88.1708333 74.17115385 74.42692308 13.74391026
1-Oct-09 126.8 98.88889 103.5722 88.1708333 94.3333333 74.42692308 74.60576923 19.7275641
30-Oct-09 121.85 103.5722 107.3722 94.3333333 100.008333 74.60576923 75.51346154 24.49487179
3-Nov-09 109 107.3722 109.8778 100.008333 103.970833 75.51346154 75.9 28.07083333
30-Nov-09 138.1 109.8778 115.9444 103.970833 108.425 75.9 78.88461538 29.54038462
1-Dec-09 142.1 115.9444 120.5889 108.425 112.9625 78.88461538 81.90961538 31.05288462
31-Dec-09 160.85 120.5889 126.4278 112.9625 119.1625 81.90961538 86.05961538 33.10288462

77
INTERPRETATION:

This chart shows that in month of February and March 2007 bearish sign
i.e., (over sold) MACD move below the signal line in MARCH 2007. In
JANUARY 2008 slightly over bought an again shorter moving average pulls the
MACD below the signal line. Again in January 2008 bearish sign i.e., (over sold)
MACD move below the signal line I.e., nearly- 40. At the end of DIVERGENCE
occurs from MAY to JUNE 2009 MACD crosses occurs when MACD making the
previous high position.

78
 OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP.LTD
Prev Open High Low Last Close Average Total Traded Turnover
Date Close Price Price Price Price Price Price Quantity in Lacs
2-Jan-07 871.3 880 880 867.55 877.75 876.85 876.14 342007 2996.46
31-Jan-07 916.85 925 929 901.55 903.5 911.4 916.49 1785557 16364.4
1-Feb-07 911.4 912 919.9 906.35 910.1 910.85 912.59 427038 3897.12
28-Feb-07 817.8 801.25 816 726.5 787 788.05 792.24 2459869 19488.15
1-Mar-07 788.05 788.05 825 751.1 821 795.95 785.86 2112616 16602.19
30-Mar-07 874.8 872 885 871.65 880 880.8 878.63 1291659 11348.86
2-Apr-07 880.8 875 875 819 819 826.1 835.72 1236440 10333.12
30-Apr-07 926.5 906 923.9 902.35 910.25 913.85 910.07 1032754 9398.8
3-May-07 913.85 923.85 937 912.7 914.25 919.35 927.01 1163609 10786.75
30-May-07 918.9 911 917 907 914 913.65 911.93 1225234 11173.34
1-Jun-07 922.3 922 923.6 909.1 914 911.35 913.69 495776 4529.87
29-Jun-07 906.55 905 918 899.25 901.3 905.55 908.78 1140312 10362.92
2-Jul-07 905.55 906 915 890 891 892.65 900.67 807705 7274.73
31-Jul-07 904.6 910 919 897.45 916.5 914.55 907.36 419980 3810.74
1-Aug-07 914.55 914 914 875 882.1 884.6 891.01 1236339 11015.9
31-Aug-07 840.7 845 865.95 834.55 860 859.7 857.03 869539 7452.22
3-Sep-07 859.7 860 864.7 839.75 843 841.05 843.58 564194 4759.44
28-Sep-07 972.75 972 984 947.35 971 958.1 969.11 1279644 12401.16
1-Oct-07 958.1 962 1015.95 958.1 994.9 999.5 995.54 1849940 18416.83
31-Oct-07 1218.05 1220 1264.95 1220 1250 1246.35 1245.37 2380195 29642.18
1-Nov-07 1246.35 1268.9 1358 1265 1339.8 1327.75 1311.43 2683592 35193.5
30-Nov-07 1137.3 1144.45 1177.3 1120 1168.25 1167.55 1164.43 1134650 13212.24
3-Dec-07 1167.55 1160 1193 1160 1170 1170.3 1182.4 1203054 14224.97
31-Dec-07 1225.65 1230.55 1245 1229 1238 1236.95 1237.76 1121507 13881.57
1-Jan-08 1236.95 1240 1254.9 1225.25 1246 1249.9 1247.5 925453 11545.03
31-Jan-08 968.25 980 1035 970 1018 989.55 997.39 3475191 34661.23
1-Feb-08 989.55 995.05 1056 985.55 1049.9 1045.9 1028.99 1322106 13604.28
29-Feb-08 1041.5 1048.9 1048.9 982 1012 1017.15 1016.29 1475000 14990.29
3-Mar-08 1017.15 1024.4 1024.4 968 985 979.35 992.56 1603318 15913.94
31-Mar-08 1049.15 1062 1089.9 975.05 986 980.55 995.55 2428847 24180.42
1-Apr-08 980.55 1000 1025 967 1015 1008.2 1003.46 1058784 10624.48
30-Apr-08 1051.65 1055 1063.8 1028.25 1031.3 1033.05 1040.18 2541704 26438.39
2-May-08 1033.05 1044 1047.9 1032 1040 1039.95 1039.75 1940794 20179.49
30-May-08 853.25 857 874 856 861.6 865.2 864.1 1916011 16556.22
2-Jun-08 865.2 870 875 822.6 839 833.1 845.99 1804662 15267.26
30-Jun-08 832.5 833 854.7 800 804 815.05 833.34 1624379 13536.6
1-Jul-08 815.05 829.95 829.95 778.7 788 793.8 807.89 2094191 16918.68
31-Jul-08 990.5 990 1006.2 988.2 992 996.25 996.79 2725531 27167.92
1-Aug-08 996.25 980.2 1012 975.35 997.15 997.55 998.25 1956717 19532.92
29-Aug-08 999.25 1006.55 1027.8 1006.55 1023.75 1023.25 1021.39 1313862 13419.6
1-Sep-08 1023.25 1019 1045.1 1000.9 1039.2 1031.15 1014.66 775790 7871.66

79
 30-Sep-08 1021.55 1010 1063 996.25 1034.8 1034.2 1037.7 1766226 18328.09
1-Oct-08 1034.2 1064.4 1064.4 1016 1042.2 1040.75 1040.07 938091 9756.84
31-Oct-08 648.35 661 698.8 597.1 684 669.1 659.57 3816934 25175.2
3-Nov-08 669.1 700 716.85 678 711.75 710.6 697.81 1646404 11488.78
28-Nov-08 700.25 741.1 741.1 680.25 687.05 693.8 697.94 3650430 25477.73
1-Dec-08 693.8 724.85 730 675.1 680.5 681 707.33 2416146 17090.1
31-Dec-08 671.9 675 678 656.3 668 667.1 664.99 1326857 8823.45
1-Jan-09 667.1 667 690 667 684.1 684.8 680.81 1161119 7905.01
30-Jan-09 639.1 648.75 664.9 630.6 656 654.95 655.78 1604174 10519.9
2-Feb-09 654.95 650.3 663.8 630 640.8 639.5 637.59 1552945 9901.38
27-Feb-09 719.75 714.5 716 681 690 691 691.99 1806387 12499.99
2-Mar-09 691 664.05 694.9 652 663.45 664.45 665.66 1579203 10512.18
31-Mar-09 782.45 745.6 798 745.6 778.2 780.2 783.93 1940704 15213.71
1-Apr-09 780.2 780 809.9 751.2 805.5 804.3 785.18 2048657 16085.69
29-May-09 1129.35 1140 1220 1116.25 1182.95 1169.25 1179.81 5188582 61215.45
1-Jun-09 1169.25 1171.1 1204 1165 1174 1176.7 1180.52 1680411 19837.61
30-Jun-09 1065.95 1068.75 1088.5 1060.65 1065.25 1067.3 1074.26 1385210 14880.77
1-Jul-09 1067.3 1065.2 1087.2 1044.6 1049 1051.6 1055.25 1237695 13060.82
31-Jul-09 1101.05 1120.05 1177.7 1112 1170 1164.05 1158.67 2797260 32411.02
3-Aug-09 1164.05 1165 1185 1152.3 1182.4 1179.3 1168.42 1501364 17542.27
31-Aug-09 1178.7 1178 1202 1162 1189 1185.5 1190.24 1231876 14662.24
1-Sep-09 1185.5 1175.55 1196.5 1156 1158.6 1162.9 1177.93 1217608 14342.56
30-Sep-09 1189.65 1192 1214.25 1163.25 1167.05 1172 1183.6 2588559 30638.11
1-Oct-09 1172 1175.45 1188.7 1168.2 1180 1182.2 1177.24 1562533 18394.77
30-Oct-09 1163.5 1164.8 1174.6 1126.3 1133.95 1131.8 1141.52 1260928 14393.79
3-Nov-09 1131.8 1144.9 1152 1109.85 1120 1118.6 1135.59 835132 9483.72
30-Nov-09 1165.15 1172.35 1206.6 1172.35 1198 1199.75 1196.42 1124509 13453.81
1-Dec-09 1199.75 1204 1214.6 1192.25 1195 1197.8 1202.66 738883 8886.27
30-Dec-09 1181.55 1188.85 1188.85 1172 1174 1174.4 1176.96 385999 4543.04
8571.16
31-Dec-09 1174.4 1178 1184 1173.2 1182 1178 1178.09 727549
MACD(12-26
te-ongc open price high price low price close price 9 days avg 12 days avg 26 days avg Days
2-Jan-07 880 880 867.55 876.85        
31-Jan-07 925 929 901.55 911.4        
1-Feb-07 912 919.9 906.35 910.85        
28-Feb-07 801.25 816 726.5 788.05        
1-Mar-07 788.05 825 751.1 795.95        
30-Mar-07 872 885 871.65 880.8        
2-Apr-07 875 875 819 826.1        
30-Apr-07 906 923.9 902.35 913.85        
3-May-07 923.85 937 912.7 919.35 869.2444444      
30-May-07 911 917 907 913.65 873.3333333      
1-Jun-07 922 923.6 909.1 911.35 873.3277778      
29-Jun-07 905 918 899.25 905.55 872.7388889 879.4791667    
2-Jul-07 906 915 890 892.65 884.3611111 880.7958333    

80
 31-Jul-07 910 919 897.45 914.55 897.5388889 881.0583333    
1-Aug-07 914 914 875 884.6 897.9611111 878.8708333    
31-Aug-07 845 865.95 834.55 859.7 901.6944444 884.8416667    
3-Sep-07 860 864.7 839.75 841.05 893.6055556 888.6    
28-Sep-07 972 984 947.35 958.1 897.9111111 895.0416667    
1-Oct-07 962 1015.95 958.1 999.5 907.45 909.4916667    
31-Oct-07 1220 1264.95 1220 1246.35 944.6722222 937.2    
1-Nov-07 1268.9 1358 1265 1327.75 991.5833333 971.2333333    
30-Nov-07 1144.45 1177.3 1120 1167.55 1022.127778 992.3916667    
3-Dec-07 1160 1193 1160 1170.3 1050.544444 1013.970833    
31-Dec-07 1230.55 1245 1229 1236.95 1089.694444 1041.5875    
1-Jan-08 1240 1254.9 1225.25 1249.9 1133.05 1071.358333    
31-Jan-08 980 1035 970 989.55 1149.55 1077.608333 972.7788462 104.82948
1-Feb-08 995.05 1056 985.55 1045.9 1159.305556 1091.05 979.2807692 111.76923
29-Feb-08 1048.9 1048.9 982 1017.15 1161.266667 1104.170833 983.3480769 120.82275
3-Mar-08 1024.4 1024.4 968 979.35 1131.6 1115.695833 985.9826923 129.7131
31-Mar-08 1062 1089.9 975.05 980.55 1093.022222 1117.566667 993.3865385 124.18012
1-Apr-08 1000 1025 967 1008.2 1075.316667 1118.291667 1001.55 116.74166
30-Apr-08 1055 1063.8 1028.25 1033.05 1060.066667 1100.516667 1007.405769 93.110897
2-May-08 1044 1047.9 1032 1039.95 1038.177778 1076.533333 1015.630769 60.90256
30-May-08 857 874 856 865.2 995.4333333 1051.3375 1013.759615 37.577884
2-Jun-08 870 875 822.6 833.1 978.05 1023.2375 1010.442308 12.795192
30-Jun-08 833 854.7 800 815.05 952.4 988.0791667 1006.65 -18.570833
1-Jul-08 829.95 829.95 778.7 793.8 927.5833333 950.0708333 1002.128846 -52.058012
31-Jul-08 990 1006.2 988.2 996.25 929.4611111 950.6291667 1005.617308 -54.988141
1-Aug-08 980.2 1012 975.35 997.55 931.35 946.6 1009.651923 -63.051923
29-Aug-08 1006.55 1027.8 1006.55 1023.25 933.0222222 947.1083333 1013.832692 -66.724358
1-Sep-08 1019 1045.1 1000.9 1031.15 932.8111111 951.425 1019.469231 -68.044230
30-Sep-08 1010 1063 996.25 1034.2 932.1722222 955.8958333 1026.180769 -70.28493
1-Oct-08 1064.4 1064.4 1016 1040.75 951.6777778 958.6083333 1033.861538 -75.253205
31-Oct-08 661 698.8 597.1 669.1 933.4555556 928.2791667 1022.746154 -94.466987
3-Nov-08 700 716.85 678 710.6 921.85 900.8333333 1011.634615 -110.80128
28-Nov-08 741.1 741.1 680.25 693.8 910.7388889 886.55 990.3826923 -103.83269
1-Dec-08 724.85 730 675.1 681 875.7111111 873.875 965.5076923 -91.632692
31-Dec-08 675 678 656.3 667.1 838.9944444 861.5458333 946.2596154 -84.713782
1-Jan-09 667 690 667 684.8 801.3888889 852.4625 927.5865385 -75.124038
30-Jan-09 648.75 664.9 630.6 654.95 759.5888889 824.0208333 905.2019231 -81.181089
2-Feb-09 650.3 663.8 630 639.5 715.7333333 794.1833333 881.725 -87.541666
27-Feb-09 714.5 716 681 691 676.8722222 766.4958333 870.2423077 -103.74647
2-Mar-09 664.05 694.9 652 664.45 676.3555556 735.9375 855.5711538 -119.63365
31-Mar-09 745.6 798 745.6 780.2 684.0888889 714.7708333 846.4576923 -131.6868
1-Apr-09 780 809.9 751.2 804.3 696.3666667 695.0666667 839.725 -144.65833
29-May-09 1140 1220 1116.25 1169.25 750.6166667 736.7458333 846.9826923 -110.2368
1-Jun-09 1171.1 1204 1165 1176.7 807.2388889 775.5875 853.4634615 -77.875961
30-Jun-09 1068.75 1088.5 1060.65 1067.3 849.7388889 806.7125 854.7807692 -48.068269

81
 1-Jul-09 1065.2 1087.2 1044.6 1051.6 893.8111111 837.5958333 855.2288462 -17.633012
31-Jul-09 1120.05 1177.7 1112 1164.05 952.0944444 879.0083333 866.7230769 12.285256
3-Aug-09 1165 1185 1152.3 1179.3 1006.35 920.2166667 880.0384615 40.178205
31-Aug-09 1178 1202 1162 1185.5 1064.244444 964.4291667 894.2865385 70.142628
1-Sep-09 1175.55 1196.5 1156 1162.9 1106.766667 1008.045833 908.4826923 99.563141
30-Sep-09 1192 1214.25 1163.25 1172 1147.622222 1048.129167 915.2423077 132.8868
1-Oct-09 1175.45 1188.7 1168.2 1182.2 1149.061111 1091.275 922.3442308 168.93076
30-Oct-09 1164.8 1174.6 1126.3 1131.8 1144.072222 1120.575 926.5192308 194.05576
3-Nov-09 1144.9 1152 1109.85 1118.6 1149.772222 1146.766667 929.8826923 216.88397
30-Nov-09 1172.35 1206.6 1172.35 1199.75 1166.233333 1149.308333 936.25 213.05833
1-Dec-09 1204 1214.6 1192.25 1197.8 1169.983333 1151.066667 942.2903846 208.77628
30-Dec-09 1188.85 1188.85 1172 1174.4 1169.438889 1159.991667 961.725 198.26666
31-Dec-09 1178 1184 1173.2 1178 1168.605556 1170.525 979.7019231 190.82307

82
INTERRPRETATION:

This chart shows bearish sign i.e., (oversold) and MACD move slightly above the signal
line. In the month of September and OCTOBER 2007 MACD move above signal line and shown
bullish signal i.e., (overbought) the MACD crossover the signal line. When the Bullish
Divergence occurs in JANUARY to FEBRUARY 2008 MACD makes the new high while
prices reach to new high. A bearish divergence occurs when MACD makes a new lows while
prices fails to reach new lows. At the end of Bearish Divergence occurs when MACD making a
new high while prices is to reach new highs

83
 UNITECH INDUSTRIES LTD

Total
Prev Open High Low Last Close Average Traded Turnover
Date Close Price Price Price Price Price Price Quantity in Lacs
2-Jan-07 460.2 464.4 472.5 458.5 464.5 464.4 465.64 1545332 7195.66
31-Jan-07 455.2 457 480.7 457 462.9 464.6 467.99 3396129 15893.66
1-Feb-07 464.6 465 472.7 457.15 462.1 461.15 465.83 1555737 7247.06
28-Feb-07 382.85 365.1 380 363.75 364.35 365.15 370.82 2511408 9312.83
1-Mar-07 365.15 360.8 374 346.9 355.2 357.85 354.33 2819161 9989.26
30-Mar-07 394 399 404 384.55 385.85 387.45 392.4 1023306 4015.45
2-Apr-07 387.45 368.1 370 368.1 368.1 368.1 368.11 79067 291.05
30-Apr-07 421.7 414.9 433.5 403.25 423.25 422.95 420.76 2033443 8555.99
3-May-07 422.95 425.1 439.7 415 416.4 417.2 427.53 1606365 6867.73
30-May-07 604.3 605 605 564 566.9 568.65 578.98 4371179 25308.16
2-Apr-07 387.45 368.1 370 368.1 368.1 368.1 368.11 79067 291.05
30-Apr-07 421.7 414.9 433.5 403.25 423.25 422.95 420.76 2033443 8555.99
3-May-07 422.95 425.1 439.7 415 416.4 417.2 427.53 1606365 6867.73
31-May-07 568.65 573.5 584 555.3 580 575.4 568.77 6947838 39517.21
1-Jun-07 575.4 580.2 586.85 565.3 567 569.5 577.44 4837159 27931.7
29-Jun-07 495 507 510.9 498 504.7 505 505.02 2529239 12773.18
2-Jul-07 505 510 525.8 505.5 523 520.2 519.26 3686579 19142.96
31-Jul-07 535.85 539.9 564.2 528.2 562.05 558.8 546.44 3950213 21585.62
1-Aug-07 558.8 554.9 554.9 508.7 514.05 511.95 530.83 4073013 21620.8
31-Aug-07 242.65 244 246 236.55 238.5 237.7 240.64 2118175 5097.22
3-Sep-07 237.7 240 246.3 240 245.4 244.5 243.17 1888385 4591.89
28-Sep-07 314.8 318.05 320 304.1 307.6 307.55 309.46 5494399 17002.81
1-Oct-07 307.55 310 320.9 308.15 316.8 316.95 316.76 3804325 12050.68
31-Oct-07 374.1 378 396.4 372.3 383.2 384.1 384.93 5030362 19363.57
1-Nov-07 384.1 392 394.4 367.5 369 371.4 381.77 2731722 10428.78
30-Nov-07 372.05 373.8 385 332.05 381 381.7 379.84 2513661 9547.92
3-Dec-07 381.7 341.55 396 341.55 393 394.8 393.01 1440978 5663.15
31-Dec-07 483.1 485 494 482 490 489.25 488.6 2106512 10292.33
1-Jan-08 489.25 495 514.8 484.3 513 507.3 499.12 2673332 13343.22
31-Jan-08 384.85 383 390.5 368 385.5 383.55 381.85 4210402 16077.23
1-Feb-08 383.55 387.8 390.05 365 371.4 373.2 371.78 4211888 15658.89
29-Feb-08 379 384 384 353.25 357 359.9 365.55 5210953 19048.7
3-Mar-08 359.9 340 354 337.25 342.05 339.8 344.54 2757493 9500.79
31-Mar-08 291.65 292 292 271 271.7 276.2 280.21 4744476 13294.55
1-Apr-08 276.2 283.5 283.5 268 273.4 275.1 274.25 5236397 14360.8
30-Apr-08 317.65 324.45 325.75 308.15 309.5 309.8 317.28 5710043 18117.05

84
 2-May-08 309.8 315 320 310.2 319 318.45 316.1 3582150 11323.13
30-May-08 237.75 240 244 231 231.45 232.7 236.04 5694937 13442.26
2-Jun-08 232.7 233.2 235.85 215 215.5 217.5 225.99 6132823 13859.49
30-Jun-08 182.8 180 180 170 175 171.4 173.9 7300810 12696.25
1-Jul-08 171.4 172.5 172.5 154.2 161 161.75 161.43 8914045 14390.38
31-Jul-08 162.05 161 165.85 161 163.7 163.9 163.52 6819106 11150.49
1-Aug-08 163.9 160 170.85 157 168.95 169.5 166.15 5555712 9230.82
29-Aug-08 152.75 158.25 160 156 158.5 159 158.44 4248558 6731.52
1-Sep-08 159 158 159.5 154.4 158.7 158.5 157.27 2769910 4356.34
30-Sep-08 108.55 101 120 101 119 116.8 113.05 14207104 16061.64
1-Oct-08 116.8 120 120.3 110.65 115.5 115.4 115.64 8514719 9846.81
31-Oct-08 50.6 59.9 59.9 45.6 48.8 48.4 48.72 25139509 12248.69
3-Nov-08 48.4 51.2 52.65 46.7 48.85 48.85 49.17 24686112 12136.95
30-Nov-09 79.3 81 82.4 78.6 78.85 79.3 80.27 43684942 35067.63
1-Dec-09 79.3 80.5 89.75 79.9 89.4 88.8 85.6 1.07E+08 91945.16
31-Dec-09 82.7 86.5 86.5 82 82.5 82.3 82.92 24531626 20341.71

85
 CALFULATION OF AVERAGES OF UNITECH INDUSTRIES LTD.

12 days 26 days MACD(12-26)

Date-UNITECH Open Price High Price Low Price Close Price 9DAYS AVG average avg Days
2-Jan-07 464.4 472.5 458.5 464.4        
31-Jan-07 457 480.7 457 464.6        
1-Feb-07 465 472.7 457.15 461.15        
28-Feb-07 365.1 380 363.75 365.15        
1-Mar-07 360.8 374 346.9 357.85        
30-Mar-07 399 404 384.55 387.45        
2-Apr-07 368.1 370 368.1 368.1        
30-Apr-07 414.9 433.5 403.25 422.95        
46.3555555
3-May-07 425.1 439.7 415 417.2 6      
63.1833333
30-May-07 605 605 564 568.65 3      
2-Apr-07 368.1 370 368.1 368.1 40.9      
46.9944444
30-Apr-07 414.9 433.5 403.25 422.95 4 422.3791667    
46.3555555
3-May-07 425.1 439.7 415 417.2 6 418.4458333    
63.9333333
31-May-07 573.5 584 555.3 575.4 3 427.6791667    
63.2777777
1-Jun-07 580.2 586.85 565.3 569.5 8 436.7083333    
56.1111111
29-Jun-07 507 510.9 498 505 1 448.3625    
2-Jul-07 510 525.8 505.5 520.2 57.8 461.8916667    
31-Jul-07 539.9 564.2 528.2 558.8 62.0888888 476.1708333    

86
 9
56.8833333
1-Aug-07 554.9 554.9 508.7 511.95 3 488.1583333    
26.4111111
31-Aug-07 244 246 236.55 237.7 1 472.7208333    
27.1666666
3-Sep-07 240 246.3 240 244.5 7 458.3291667    
34.1722222
28-Sep-07 318.05 320 304.1 307.55 2 436.5708333    
35.2166666
1-Oct-07 310 320.9 308.15 316.95 7 432.3083333    
42.6777777
31-Oct-07 378 396.4 372.3 384.1 8 429.0708333    
41.2666666
1-Nov-07 392 394.4 367.5 371.4 7 425.2541667    
42.4111111
30-Nov-07 373.8 385 332.05 381.7 1 409.1125 421.9423 -12.82980769
43.8666666
3-Dec-07 341.55 396 341.55 394.8 7 394.5541667 419.2654 -24.71121795
54.3611111
31-Dec-07 485 494 482 489.25 1 393.2416667 420.2135 -26.97179487
56.3666666
1-Jan-08 495 514.8 484.3 507.3 7 392.1666667 421.9885 -29.82179487
42.6166666
31-Jan-08 383 390.5 368 383.55 7 377.5625 422.6962 -45.13365385
41.4666666
1-Feb-08 387.8 390.05 365 373.2 7 366 423.2865 -57.28653846
39.9888888
29-Feb-08 384 384 353.25 359.9 9 376.1833333 422.2269 -46.04358974
37.7555555
3-Mar-08 340 354 337.25 339.8 6 384.125 421.1385 -37.01346154
30.6888888
31-Mar-08 292 292 271 276.2 9 381.5125 415.4942 -33.98173077

87
 30.5666666
1-Apr-08 283.5 283.5 268 275.1 7 378.025 410.0288 -32.00384615
34.4222222
30-Apr-08 324.45 325.75 308.15 309.8 2 371.8333333 400.0731 -28.23974359
35.3833333
2-May-08 315 320 310.2 318.45 3 367.4208333 398.1635 -30.74262821
25.8555555
30-May-08 240 244 231 232.7 6 355.0041667 390.8462 -35.84198718
24.1666666
2-Jun-08 233.2 235.85 215 217.5 7 340.2291667 383.1654 -42.93621795
19.0444444
30-Jun-08 180 180 170 171.4 4 313.7416667 367.6269 -53.88525641
17.9722222
1-Jul-08 172.5 172.5 154.2 161.75 2 284.9458333 351.9442 -66.99839744
18.2111111
31-Jul-08 161 165.85 161 163.9 1 266.6416667 338.825 -72.18333333
18.8333333
1-Aug-08 160 170.85 157 169.5 3 249.6666667 325.3365 -75.66987179
17.6666666
29-Aug-08 158.25 160 156 159 7 232.925 309.9596 -77.03461538
17.6111111
1-Sep-08 158 159.5 154.4 158.5 1 217.8166667 296.3654 -78.54871795
12.9777777
30-Sep-08 101 120 101 116.8 8 204.5333333 291.7154 -87.18205128
12.8222222
1-Oct-08 120 120.3 110.65 115.4 2 191.225 286.75 -95.525
5.37777777
31-Oct-08 59.9 59.9 45.6 48.4 8 169.4416667 276.7827 -107.3410256
5.42777777
3-Nov-08 51.2 52.65 46.7 48.85 8 146.975 266.4712 -119.4961538
8.81111111
30-Nov-09 81 82.4 78.6 79.3 1 134.1916667 254.7481 -120.5564103
1-Dec-09 80.5 89.75 79.9 88.8 9.86666666 123.4666667 243.8788 -120.4121795

88
 7
9.14444444
31-Dec-09 86.5 86.5 82 82.3 4 116.0416667 232.3635 -116.3217949

89
INTERPRETATION:

This chars shows that in the month of MARCH and APRIAL 2007 bearish
sign i.e., (over sold). MACD move below the signal line in JANUARY 2008
overbought and shorter moving average pulls the MACD above the signal line. In
MAY 2008 MACD crossover above signal and bullish sign i.e., (over bought) upto
the NOVEMBER 2008. In DECEMBER 2008 slightly overbought and again
shorter moving average pulls MACD below signal line. At the of DIVERGENCE
occurs when MACD making a flat not more high or low.

90
 RELIANCE NATURAL RESOURCES LTD.
Total
Prev Open High Low Last Close Average Traded Turnover
Date Close Price Price Price Price Price Price Quantity in Lacs
2-Jan-07 22.2 22.35 22.65 22.25 22.3 22.3 22.4 1705203 381.94
31-Jan-07 27.35 27.55 27.7 26.3 26.35 26.45 26.87 6366212 1710.41
1-Feb-07 26.45 26.6 26.85 26.25 26.45 26.35 26.47 3857703 1021.1
28-Feb-07 24.3 23.9 24.25 21.5 23.45 23.45 23.69 8541891 2023.74
1-Mar-07 23.45 23.5 23.95 22.6 23.4 23.3 23.24 7946864 1846.72
30-Mar-07 22.25 22.3 22.3 22.1 22.2 22.15 22.19 2574311 571.28
2-Apr-07 22.15 22 22.3 21 21.8 21.75 21.95 3710863 814.58
30-Apr-07 25 25 26 24.7 25.9 25.75 25.44 4515467 1148.91
3-May-07 25.75 26 26.8 26 26.4 26.25 26.35 6903481 1819.06
30-May-07 37.15 37 37.5 35.7 35.85 35.9 36.69 29604606 10861.96
2-Apr-07 22.15 22 22.3 21 21.8 21.75 21.95 3710863 814.58
30-Apr-07 25 25 26 24.7 25.9 25.75 25.44 4515467 1148.91
3-May-07 25.75 26 26.8 26 26.4 26.25 26.35 6903481 1819.06
31-May-07 35.9 36.5 36.85 35.75 35.8 36.05 36.18 40957246 14818.9
1-Jun-07 36.05 36.1 36.9 35.3 35.85 35.6 36.14 20333890 7347.74
29-Jun-07 36.1 36.5 39.25 36.2 39.05 39 37.89 52974206 20070.53
2-Jul-07 39 39.6 40.65 39 39.75 39.75 39.92 42944397 17142.61
31-Jul-07 42.5 42.5 44.4 42.4 44.25 44.05 43.59 23271205 10143.01
1-Aug-07 44.05 44 44 41.2 41.85 41.55 42.66 24745704 10556.37
31-Aug-07 44.45 44 46 44 45.5 45.45 45.41 13628459 6189.3
3-Sep-07 45.45 45.5 48.8 45.45 48.8 48.1 47.35 26727640 12655.96
28-Sep-07 86.6 73.65 92.45 73.65 89.8 90.05 85.8 1.1E+08 94287.78
1-Oct-07 90.05 90 96.5 90 93.65 95.1 93.81 76345158 71621.07
31-Oct-07 115.55 115.5 121.65 115 119.9 119.95 119.69 59888129 71678.14
1-Nov-07 119.95 124.7 148.45 122 130.1 129.9 134.4 1.78E+08 238958.05
30-Nov-07 152.75 154.5 170.8 153 169.3 168.65 163.35 65143324 106411.24
3-Dec-07 168.65 170 175.85 169.15 172.65 173.8 172.62 34550782 59642.81
31-Dec-07 178 179.8 185.4 179.25 182.15 182.55 183.19 35585422 65187.63
1-Jan-08 182.55 185.5 185.5 181.05 181.7 181.95 182.98 13833529 25313.01
31-Jan-08 136.6 137.6 141.9 130 134 133.55 136 50971817 69323.9
1-Feb-08 133.55 136.7 140.75 134.3 138.85 138.9 137.9 30075730 41475.88
29-Feb-08 133.95 134 134.5 127.55 132 132.9 131.62 29021954 38198.49
3-Mar-08 132.9 129 130.2 124 124.35 124.75 127.3 23139275 29456.78
31-Mar-08 105.35 104 104.35 99.05 99.25 99.8 101.74 29958185 30478.27
1-Apr-08 99.8 100.95 102.9 98.1 101.45 101.4 100.63 19663843 19787.38
30-Apr-08 126.85 127 128.5 120.5 121.85 122.3 125.46 24612799 30879.43
2-May-08 122.3 124.95 126.5 123.2 124.3 125.15 124.84 20510783 25604.78

91
30-May-08 103.1 103.95 104.9 99.5 101.35 101.35 101.97 16388509 16711.58
2-Jun-08 101.35 102.2 103.45 97 97.45 97.75 100.32 16776964 16830.85
30-Jun-08 72.35 72.85 73.8 63.2 63.5 64.65 67.78 27348648 18538.17
1-Jul-08 64.65 65 65.2 58.2 58.2 58.75 61.01 31255771 19070.6
31-Jul-08 99.65 101 102.9 96.5 97.05 98.1 99.51 71918462 71566.33
1-Aug-08 98.1 92.25 102.9 92.25 101.65 101.95 99.18 70714760 70133.89
29-Aug-08 91.65 93 95.8 93 94.25 94.65 94.81 25215978 23906.67
1-Sep-08 94.65 94 95.25 92.5 93.95 93.95 93.79 20691254 19406.19
30-Sep-08 69.7 65 75 61.6 73.45 73.45 70.71 38764522 27409.55
1-Oct-08 73.45 74.5 74.75 70.6 72.1 71.8 72.64 23705286 17218.55
31-Oct-08 41 42.9 44.5 42 44.15 43.6 43 14431280 6205.92
3-Nov-08 43.6 44.65 55.6 44.65 54.8 53.65 51.13 36647135 18736.65
28-Nov-08 40.65 40.05 42.05 38.1 41.6 41.1 40.29 9937480 4003.42
1-Dec-08 41.1 41.8 43 39.75 40.05 40.05 41.66 13089877 5452.7
31-Dec-08 57.05 57.9 59.85 56.25 57.25 57.2 58.17 44555016 25915.65
1-Jan-09 57.2 58.2 60.5 57.15 60.4 59.65 58.88 32679254 19240.96
30-Jan-09 49.05 48.45 52.25 48 51.3 51.45 50.8 27603598 14023.78
2-Feb-09 51.45 51.5 51.5 47.1 47.2 47.5 48.44 21542958 10434.34
27-Feb-09 42.3 42.4 42.65 40.35 41.35 41.25 41.31 8939311 3693.03
2-Mar-09 41.25 40 40.9 39 39.1 39.35 40.08 7738658 3101.71
31-Mar-09 44.05 44.45 46.3 43.75 44.8 44.85 45.22 28528185 12901.24
1-Apr-09 44.85 44.8 47.15 44.05 46.5 46.55 46.09 33478704 15428.72
29-Apr-09 54.7 60 60 54.8 56.9 56.6 56.22 25858228 14537.15
4-May-09 56.6 59.75 60.4 58.2 59.5 59.65 59.47 28026264 16668.49
29-May-09 80.1 81.35 84.9 80.5 82.45 82.85 82.9 45197075 37467.37
1-Jun-09 82.85 84.25 89.1 83.1 88.5 88 85.74 52810031 45281.33
30-Jun-09 90.9 91 92.35 83.1 84.2 83.9 86.81 28178755 24460.66
1-Jul-09 83.9 85 85 80.25 82.9 82.6 82.47 29750675 24536.87
31-Jul-09 85.05 86.35 86.7 82.25 83.8 83.45 84.36 18999771 16028.73
3-Aug-09 83.45 84 85 81.8 83.8 84 83.54 21434631 17906.39
31-Aug-09 85.85 84.5 88.85 83.55 85.65 86.1 86.58 24893056 21552.92
1-Sep-09 86.1 87.25 88.25 83.7 83.9 84.2 85.95 14858761 12771.75
30-Sep-09 88.05 87.95 89.4 87.5 87.9 88.05 88.37 8492738 7504.78
1-Oct-09 88.05 88.1 88.6 87.1 87.3 87.3 87.77 7614348 6683.29
30-Oct-09 67.35 69.1 70.5 62.75 63.5 63.7 66.2 21570351 14280.52
3-Nov-09 63.7 63 72.7 60.35 66.45 66.45 67.63 47746277 32292.97
30-Nov-09 67.25 68.5 69 67.55 67.75 67.85 68.2 6399133 4364.43
1-Dec-09 67.85 67.85 71.5 67.85 71.05 70.85 70.38 13496144 9498.34
31-Dec-09 70.5 70.7 71.15 69.15 69.7 69.4 69.98 8260450 5780.92

92
 COMPUTATION OF VARIOUS AVERAGES OF RELIANCE NATURAL RESOURCES LTD
High 12 days MACD(12-26)
Date-RNRL Open Price Price Low Price Close Price 9DAYS AVG average 26 days avg Days
2-Jan-07 22.35 22.65 22.25 22.3        
31-Jan-07 27.55 27.7 26.3 26.45        
1-Feb-07 26.6 26.85 26.25 26.35        
28-Feb-07 23.9 24.25 21.5 23.45        
1-Mar-07 23.5 23.95 22.6 23.3        
30-Mar-07 22.3 22.3 22.1 22.15        
2-Apr-07 22 22.3 21 21.75        
30-Apr-07 25 26 24.7 25.75        
3-May-07 26 26.8 26 26.25 24.1944444      
30-May-07 37 37.5 35.7 35.9 25.7055556      
2-Apr-07 22 22.3 21 21.75 25.1833333      
30-Apr-07 25 26 24.7 25.75 25.1166667 25.0958333    
3-May-07 26 26.8 26 26.25 25.4277778 25.425   
31-May-07 36.5 36.85 35.75 36.05 26.8444444 26.225   
1-Jun-07 36.1 36.9 35.3 35.6 28.3388889 26.9958333    
29-Jun-07 36.5 39.25 36.2 39 30.2555556 28.2916667    
2-Jul-07 39.6 40.65 39 39.75 31.8111111 29.6625   
31-Jul-07 42.5 44.4 42.4 44.05 33.7888889 31.4875   
1-Aug-07 44 44 41.2 41.55 34.4166667 33.1375   
31-Aug-07 44 46 44 45.45 37.05 34.7791667    
3-Sep-07 45.5 48.8 45.45 48.1 39.5333333 36.6
   
28-Sep-07 73.65 92.45 73.65 90.05 46.6222222 41.1125   
1-Oct-07 90 96.5 90 95.1 53.1833333 47.225   
31-Oct-07 115.5 121.65 115 119.95 62.5555556 55.075   
1-Nov-07 124.7 148.45 122 129.9 72.6555556 63.7125   
48.4846153
30-Nov-07 154.5 170.8 153 168.65 86.9777778 74.7625 8 26.27788462

93
 54.3115384
3-Dec-07 170 175.85 169.15 173.8 101.394444 86.2791667 6 31.96762821
60.3153846
31-Dec-07 179.8 185.4 179.25 182.55 117.061111 98.2416667 2 37.92628205
1-Jan-08 185.5 185.5 181.05 181.95 132.227778 110.091667 66.3 43.79166667
70.5346153
31-Jan-08 137.6 141.9 130 133.55 141.722222 117.55 8 47.01538462
74.9807692
1-Feb-08 136.7 140.75 134.3 138.9 147.15 125.6625 3 50.68173077
79.2403846
29-Feb-08 134 134.5 127.55 132.9 151.35 132.95 2 53.70961538
83.2019230
3-Mar-08 129 130.2 124 124.75 151.883333 139.3375 8 56.13557692
31-Mar-08 104 104.35 99.05 99.8 148.538889 140.15 86.05 54.1
88.9403846
1-Apr-08 100.95 102.9 98.1 101.4 141.066667 140.675 2 51.73461538
92.2634615
30-Apr-08 127 128.5 120.5 122.3 135.344444 140.870833 4 48.60737179
96.2403846
2-May-08 124.95 126.5 123.2 125.15 128.966667 140.475 2 44.23461538
99.1480769
30-May-08 103.95 104.9 99.5 101.35 120.011111 134.866667 2 35.71858974
101.898076
2-Jun-08 102.2 103.45 97 97.75 116.033333 128.529167 9 26.63108974
102.998076
30-Jun-08 72.85 73.8 63.2 64.65 107.783333 118.704167 9 15.70608974
103.888461
1-Jul-08 65 65.2 58.2 58.75 99.5444444 108.4375 5 4.549038462
106.161538
31-Jul-08 101 102.9 96.5 98.1 96.5833333 105.483333 5 -0.678205128
108.553846
1-Aug-08 92.25 102.9 92.25 101.95 96.8222222 102.404167 2 -6.149679487
29-Aug-08 93 95.8 93 94.65 96.0722222 99.2166667 110.5 -11.28333333

94
 112.515384
1-Sep-08 94 95.25 92.5 93.95 92.9222222 96.65 6 -15.86538462
113.592307
30-Sep-08 65 75 61.6 73.45 87.1777778 94.4541667 7 -19.13814103
114.503846
1-Oct-08 74.5 74.75 70.6 71.8 83.8944444 91.9875 2 -22.51634615
112.717307
31-Oct-08 42.9 44.5 42 43.6 77.8777778 85.4291667 7 -27.28814103
111.123076
3-Nov-08 44.65 55.6 44.65 53.65 76.6555556 79.4708333 9 -31.65224359
108.090384
28-Nov-08 40.05 42.05 38.1 41.1 74.6944444 74.45 6 -33.64038462
104.634615
1-Dec-08 41.8 43 39.75 40.05 68.2444444 69.6416667 4 -34.99294872
100.348076
31-Dec-08 57.9 59.85 56.25 57.2 63.2722222 69.0208333 9 -31.32724359
95.9576923
1-Jan-09 58.2 60.5 57.15 59.65 59.3833333 69.0958333 1 -26.86185897
90.9153846
30-Jan-09 48.45 52.25 48 51.45 54.6611111 65.2083333 2 -25.70705128
85.7442307
2-Feb-09 51.5 51.5 47.1 47.5 51.7777778 60.6708333 7 -25.07339744
82.1942307
27-Feb-09 42.4 42.65 40.35 41.25 48.3833333 56.2208333 7 -25.97339744
78.3653846
2-Mar-09 40 40.9 39 39.35 47.9111111 51.6708333 2 -26.69455128
74.9788461
31-Mar-09 44.45 46.3 43.75 44.85 46.9333333 49.2875 5 -25.69134615
71.9711538
1-Apr-09 44.8 47.15 44.05 46.55 47.5388889 47.1833333 5 -24.78782051
70.3096153
29-Apr-09 60 60 54.8 56.6 49.3777778 48.2666667 8 -22.04294872
68.7038461
4-May-09 59.75 60.4 58.2 59.65 49.65 48.7666667 5 -19.93717949

95
 67.1865384
29-May-09 81.35 84.9 80.5 82.85 52.2277778 52.2458333 6 -14.94070513
65.7576923
1-Jun-09 84.25 89.1 83.1 88 56.2888889 56.2416667 1 -9.516025641
65.0865384
30-Jun-09 91 92.35 83.1 83.9 60.3333333 58.4666667 6 -6.619871795
64.5038461
1-Jul-09 85 85 80.25 82.6 64.9277778 60.3791667 5 -4.124679487
65.2269230
31-Jul-09 86.35 86.7 82.25 83.45 69.8277778 63.0458333 8 -2.181089744
66.1980769
3-Aug-09 84 85 81.8 84 74.1777778 66.0875 2 -0.110576923
65.7365384
31-Aug-09 84.5 88.85 83.55 86.1 78.5722222 69.825 6 4.088461538
65.0538461
1-Sep-09 87.25 88.25 83.7 84.2 81.6388889 73.5625 5 8.508653846
30-Sep-09 87.95 89.4 87.5 88.05 84.7944444 77.1625 64.8 12.3625
64.5442307
1-Oct-09 88.1 88.6 87.1 87.3 85.2888889 80.5583333 7 16.01410256
64.1692307
30-Oct-09 69.1 70.5 62.75 63.7 82.5888889 81.15 7 16.98076923
63.9634615
3-Nov-09 63 72.7 60.35 66.45 80.65 81.7166667 4 17.75320513
64.8961538
30-Nov-09 68.5 69 67.55 67.85 79.0111111 80.4666667 5 15.57051282
65.5576923
1-Dec-09 67.85 71.5 67.85 70.85 77.6111111 79.0375 1 13.47980769
66.6461538
31-Dec-09 70.7 71.15 69.15 69.4 75.9888889 77.8291667 5 11.18301282

96
INTERPRETATION:

This chart shows that in month of MAY and JUNE bullish sign (overbought)
MACD move above the signal line in July 2007 MACD crossover below signal and
bearish sign i.e., (buy signal) in January 2008 and shorter moving average pulls the
MACD below the signal line. At the end of bearish Divergence occurs when MACD
makes the new high when prices is to reach new highs.

97
 Summary
&
CONCLUSION

98
 CONCLUSION

Technical Analysis focuses on historical price movements and/or trading

volumes of individuals stocks, groups of stock and the overall market to help
selection of the stock and the timing of the purchase of stock. Technical Analysis
use of price and volume information about stocks, for the analysis of both the
aggregate stock market and individual stocks. An analyst that uses Technical
Analysis is called Technician.

Technical Analysis uses:

 Price and volume are the primary tools of the technical analyst.
 Supply and demand in turn is governed by a host of factors, both rational
and irrational
 Trends in stock prices occur and continue for considerable period of time,
with minor fluctuations in the market
 Changes in trend are cause by shift in demand and supply.
 Irrespective of cause of occurrences shifts in supply and demand can be
detected sooner are later with the help of charts of market action.
 Some chart patterns tend to repeat themselves.

Technical Analysis is a controversial approach, and as it’s set of

ardent admires and at the same time it has severe critics. In a rational,
efficient market it should actually be a usual exercise. However given the
imperfections, irrationalities and inefficiency of real world market it can be
helpful and may used as a support or complementary method to the other
methods of stock selection.

99
 SUMMARY
The methods used to analyze securities and make investment decisions fall
into two very broad categories: Technical Analysis and Fundamental analysis
involves analyzing the characteristics of a company in order to estimate its intrinsic
value. Technical Analysis takes a completely different approach; it doesn’t care
one bit about the “value” of a company or a commodity.

Technicians (sometimes called chartists) are only interested in the price

movements in the market. Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employs,
Technical Analysis really just studies supply and demand in a market in an attempt
to determine what direction, or trend, will continue in the future.

Project Analysis:

1. HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD

2. OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORP. LTD

3. UNITECH INDUSTRIES

4. RELIANCE NATURAL RESOURCES LTD.

In other words, Technical Analysis attempts to understand the emotions in

the market by studying the market itself, as opposed to its component. If you
understand the benefits and limitations of Technical Analysis, it can give you a
new set of tools or skills that will enable you to be a better trader or investor.

100
 BIBLIOGRAPHY

WEBSITES USED
www.investopedia.com
www.nseindia.com
www.wikipedia.com
www.bseindia.com
www.google.com
www.in.finance.yahoo.com
www.sharekhan.com

REFERRED BOOKS
SECURITY ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

----FISCHER & JORDAN

INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

---V.K. BHALLA

101