The Journey and Application of Risk

Forecasting in Orion

Presenter: Daniel Law – Asset Lifecycle Engineer

PRESENTATION FLOW
 Development of Replacement Forecast Methodology
(Ranking System Condition-based Risk-based)

 Switchgear Replacement

 Change Drivers

 Success and Opportunity

Prior 2012 – Score and Rank Era
Attribute Score (/10) Weighting Total
Age Factor 50 0 20 0
Interruption Medium Oil 5 10 5
Asset Score Manufacturer Support
Manufacturer Manual
Yes
Yes
10
10
10
15
10
15
Spart Parts No 0 15 0
Spart Unit Yes 10 10 10
Known Issues Unreliable 0 20 0
Grand Total 40

Installation Orion Project Cost

Rank and SlotName
Power St No.1
Type
D4X
Year
1966
Age
50
Ranking Year
40 2016
($,000)
54
Prioritize Cct St No.1
Bath St No.1
D4X
D4X4
1966
1970
51
50
40
50
2017
2020
54
60

Project Year No. /year ($,000)

Expenditure 2016
2017
1
1
54
54
Forecast 2021 1 54
2012- IMPROVEMENT INITIATIVES
• OPERATING CONTEXT
– Location Factor
– Duty

• INDIVIDUAL ASSET SPECIFIC DATA

– Trending of defects
– Partial discharge history
– Incident of slow tripping?

• OPTIMIZING REPLACEMENT STRATEGY

2013- Application of CBRM and Health Index

What is Health Index Health Index Score and Range

The Relationship between Probability of Failure
and Health Index
Health Index and PoF – Y(0) vs Y(10)
Ye ar 0 He alth Inde x Profile Y(0)

700 0.12 Failure Rate: 0.015

600 0.1
Equivalent:
No of Assets

500 0.08 11 failures a year

400
0.06
300
200 0.04
100 0.02
0 0
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10
HI Value

Year 10 Health Index Profile Y(10) with NO INVESTMENT

500 0.12 Failure Rate: 0.025

400 0.1
Equivalent:
No of Assets

0.08 18 failures a year

300
0.06
200
0.04
100 0.02
0 0
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10+
HI Value
Post 2013 – Risk-based Replacement
Data Sourcing
Categories Sources Comment

Network Performance Performance • Data Sourcing - Easy

Consequences Report • Data Quality- Good

Financial Consequences Work Financial • Data Sourcing - Easy

Report • Data Quality- Good
Consequences
of Failure
Environmental Nationwide • Data Sourcing – Challenging
Consequences Statistic • Data Quality- Estimate Only

Safety Consequences Nationwide • Data Sourcing – Challenging

Statistic • Data Quality – Estimate Only

9 of X
Example: Health Index Forecast
Y0:
~97% good zone

Y10:
~85% Deteriorating
zone

Addition
Expenditure =
6,000,000 for ten
years

Equivalent to 500 in
ten years
PoF Forecast and Risk-based Forecast
RISK PROFILE FORECAST
$600,000

$500,000
$80,000
$400,000

$300,000
6
$200,000

$100,000

$-
Network Safety Financial Environmental Total
Performance

Y0 Risk Profile Y10 Risk Profile

Intriguing Results:

• $6,000,000 expenditure to reduce 80,000 of risk dollars??

Conclusion
• The risk-based forecasting methodology adds
value to decision-making process

• Understanding the detailed application and

limitation of the CBRM will help the integration
process

• CBRM requires a lot of communication and

collaboration
Thank you