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FAO

ISSN 2070-7010
FISHERIES AND
AQUACULTURE
TECHNICAL
PAPER

607

Short-term projection of global


fish demand and supply gaps
Cover photographs:

Top row (left to right):


Farmed Cachama (Colossoma macropomum), Peru (©FAO Aquaculture photo library/D. Soto)
Giant tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon) broodstock, Indonesia (©FAO/Adek Berry)
Giant clam broodstock, Samoa (Courtesy of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community)
Sturgeon broodstock, Russian Federation (Courtesy of Jiansan Jia)

Middle row (left to right):


Fresh farmed salmon sold in a food store in Tokyo, Japan (©FAO/Giulio Napolitano)
A fish stall at a food market in Rome, Italy (©FAO/Alessia Pierdomenico)
Steamed farmed tilapia served in a seafood restaurant, China (Courtesy of Junning Cai)

Bottom row (left to right):


Tuna fishing, Cabo Verde (©FAO/Mario Marzot)
Wild caught carp from the lake, Kyrgyzstan (©FAO/Sergey Kozmin)
Cobia in a submerged aquapod net pen, Puerto Rico (©FAO Aquaculture photo library/Ocean Farm Technologies Inc.)
Feeding tilapia on Lake Volta, Ghana (the first-prize winner in the SARNISSA African Cage Culture Photo Competition; courtesy
of Pierre-Olivier Maquart)
Short-term projection FAO
FISHERIES AND
AQUACULTURE
of global fish demand TECHNICAL PAPER

607
and supply gaps

By

Junning Cai
Aquaculture Officer
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department
Rome, Italy

and

PingSun Leung
Professor
University of Hawaiʻi at Manoa
Honolulu, United States of America

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS


Rome, 2017
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iii

Preparation of this document

A short-term projection model is developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization


of the United Nations (FAO) to assess and monitor potential fish demand and supply
gaps with the aim of facilitating evidence-based decision-making at the national, regional
and global levels. This paper presents the methodology and results of the model.
The paper is intended to become a background document for the fish consumption
module of the World Aquaculture Performance Indicators (WAPI). Audun Lem,
Frank Asche, Malcolm Beveridge, Manuel Barange, Marttin Felix, Mimako Kobayashi,
Nathanael  Hishamunda, Pierre  Charlebois, Rohana Subasinghe, Stefania Vannuccini,
Tipparat Pongthanapanich, Trond Bjørndal, Xiaowei Zhou, Yaw Ansah and Ying Xiao
are acknowledged for their valuable comments and suggestions provided in seminars
or through the formal review of the paper. Danielle Rizcallah, Maria Giannini and
Marianne Guyonnet are acknowledged for their assistance in editing and formatting, and
Ettore Vecchione is acknowledged for layout and graphic design.
iv

Abstract

A short-term projection model is developed to assess and monitor potential future fish
demand and supply gaps at the country (nearly 200 countries or territories), regional
(about 40  country groups), and global levels for nine species groups. Salient results at
the global, regional and country levels are presented in the main text. Key results for
all countries and all the nine species groups (including both standard and conservative
projections) are documented in the appendix. The results indicate that: (i) if fish prices
and consumer preferences remain the same, income growth would drive world per
capita fish demand up from 20 kg/year in the mid-2010s to 25 kg/year in the early
2020s (or 23 kg/year under the conservative projection); (ii) the income-driven per capita
fish demand hike, combined with population growth, would drive world fish demand
up by 47 million tonnes (or 31 million tonnes under the conservative projection);
(iii) the 19-million-tonne fish supply growth generated by the trend growth of world
aquaculture production would cover only 40 percent of the projected demand growth
(or 62 percent of the conservative projection), leaving a fish demand-supply gap of
28 million tonnes (or 16 million tonnes under the conservative projection) in the early
2020s; (iv) the demand-supply gap for shellfish (i.e. crustaceans and molluscs) would
be bigger than that for finfish – they would account for, respectively, 55 percent and
45 percent of the 28-million-tonne fish demand-supply gap; (v) while world aquaculture
production following its recent trend would grow 4.5 percent annually from the mid-
2010s to the early 2020s, it would take a 9.9 percent annual growth (or 6.9 percent
under the conservative projection) to fill the world fish demand-supply gap in the early
2020s; (vi) the trend aquaculture growth in only 17 countries (or 24 countries under
the conservative projection) would be sufficient to cover the demand growth driven by
population and income growth; excess demand is expected to occur in 170 countries (or
163 countries under the conservative projection); and (vii) should the world aquaculture
production fall short of the required annual growth rate (i.e. 9.9 percent or 6.9 percent
under the standard or conservative projection), and assuming world capture fisheries
production would remain at the current level, the world fish price would have to
increase to reduce fish demand in order to clear the market (i.e. no demand-supply
gap). Results generated by the short-term projection model are useful for policymaking,
development aids, business or investment planning, and other decision-making by
various stakeholders in aquaculture and fisheries. They are a complement to and can
potentially enhance the understanding of the results of more sophisticated forecasting
models such as the OECD-FAO Fish Model and the World Bank-IFPRI-FAO Fish to
2030 model.

Cai, J. & Leung, P.S. 2017. Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps.
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 607. Rome, FAO.
v

Contents

Preparation of this document iii


Abstract iv
Figures vi
Tables viii
Abbreviations and acronyms ix
1. Introduction 1
2. Status and trends of fish consumption 3
2.1 Historical trends of fish consumption 3
2.2 Species composition of fish consumption 9

3. Estimating future fish demand 17


3.1 Estimating the impact of income on per capita fish demand 17
3.2 Estimating per capita fish demand in the future 20
3.3 Estimating future fish demand 25

4. Estimating future fish demand-supply gaps 35


4.1 Short-term projection of aquaculture production 35
4.2 Demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s 37
4.3 More conservative projection of demand growth 47

5. Discussion 51
References 57
Appendix 59
vi

Figures

Figure 1: Global overview of per capita fish consumption, 2013 5


Figure 2: Status and trends of per capita fish consumption in developing
versus developed regions 6
Figure 3: Status and trends of per capita fish consumption in
Asian countries 6
Figure 4: Status and trends of per capita fish consumption in
African countries 7
Figure 5: Status and trends of per capita fish consumption for countries
in the Americas 8
Figure 6: Status and trends of per capita fish consumption in
European countries 8
Figure 7: Status and trends of per capita fish consumption in
Oceanian countries 9
Figure 8: Species composition of world per capita fish consumption 10
Figure 9: Fish consumption in 2013 by species and region 11
Figure 10: Contribution of marine fish to fish consumption, 2013 12
Figure 11: Contribution of freshwater & diadromous fish to fish
consumption, 2013 13
Figure 12: Contribution of crustaceans to fish consumption, 2013 14
Figure 13: Contribution of shell molluscs to fish consumption, 2013 15
Figure 14: Contribution of cephalopods to fish consumption, 2013 16
Figure 15A: Estimated income elasticity coefficients for the five basic
species groups (20 subregions) 21
Figure 15B: Estimated income elasticity coefficients for the five basic species
groups (top 20 countries with the largest fish consumption) 21
Figure 16: Annual per capita income growth from the mid-2010s to the
early 2020s 24
Figure 17: World per capita fish demand growth (kg/person) from the
mid-2010s to the early 2020s 25
Figure 18: Per capita fish demand at the regional and global levels –
mid-2010s versus the early 2020s 26
Figure 19: Per capita fish demand growth from the mid-2010s to the
early 2020s 29
Figure 20: Population growth at the regional and global levels from the
mid-2010s to the early 2020s 30
Figure 21: Population growth at the country level from the mid-2010s
to the early 2020s 31
Figure 22: Regional distribution of expected fish demand growth from
the mid-2010s to the early 2020s 32
vii

Figure 23: Species composition of fish demand growth from the


mid-2010s to the early 2020s 32
Figure 24: Fish demand growth at the country level from the
mid-2010s to the early 2020s 34
Figure 25: Species composition of trend aquaculture production growth
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s 36
Figure 26: Regional distribution of trend aquaculture production
growth from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s 36
Figure 27: Trend aquaculture production growth from the mid-2010s to
the early 2020s 38
Figure 28: Species composition of world fish demand-supply gap
in the early 2020s 39
Figure 29: Geographic distribution of world fish demand-supply gap
in the early 2020s 39
Figure 30: Fish demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s 40
Figure 31: Marine fish demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s 42
Figure 32: Freshwater & diadromous fish demand-supply gaps in the
early 2020s 43
Figure 33: Crustacean demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s 45
Figure 34: Shell molluscs demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s 46
Figure 35: Cephalopod demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s 48
viii

Tables

Table 1: Regional and global fish consumption – 2008 versus 2013 4


Table 2: Data used in estimations 20
Table 3: Estimated income elasticity coefficients 22
Table 4: Demand-supply gaps: standard versus conservative projections 50
Table A: Summary of demand-supply gap projections 60
ix

Abbreviations and acronyms

F&D Freshwater & diadromous


GDP Gross domestic product
IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute
IMF International Monetary Fund
mt million tonne
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PPP purchasing power parity
SPC Secretariat of the Pacific Community
SARNISSA Sustainable Aquaculture Research Networks for Sub-Saharan Africa
1

1. Introduction

World fish1 consumption increased from 121 million tonnes in 2008 to 140 million
tonnes in 2013. Ninety percent of the growth was contributed by aquaculture. Looking
into the future, growing and wealthier populations would continue to demand more
fish, and aquaculture growth is expected to be the major force to satisfy the demand
growth (OECD-FAO, 2011–2016; World Bank, 2013).

As opposed to most work that forecasts future fish demand and supply focusing on
medium- or long-term projections at the global or regional level (Ye, 1999; Delgado
et al., 2003; OECD-FAO, 2011–2016; World Bank, 2013; Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo,
2014; Kobayashi et al., 2015), this paper develops a short-term projection model to
assess potential future fish demand-supply gaps at the country,2 regional and global
levels and estimates aquaculture growth needed to fill the gap.

The model includes: (i) a demand-side component that estimates the fish demand
growth driven by population and income growth; (ii) a supply-side component that
estimates the trend aquaculture growth; and (iii) a set of indicators that measure
demand-supply gaps. The demand-side component contains an econometric model
that estimates the income elasticity of fish demand based on the historical trends of
nearly 200 countries.

The study covers the supply and demand of nine fish species groups. The results for
five basic species groups3 (i.e. marine fish, freshwater & diadromous fish,4 crustaceans,
shell molluscs and cephalopods) are estimated directly. These basic results are
aggregated into results for four more aggregate species groups (i.e. molluscs,5 shellfish,6
finfish7 and fish8). Limited by space, the discussion in the paper is focused on fish as a
whole and the five basic species groups. Yet key results for all the nine species groups
are presented in the appendix.

The study examines fish supply and demand for nearly 200 countries or territories. The
basic, country-level results are then aggregated into regional and global results. Limited
by space, this paper only discusses regional- and global-level results and highlights

1
Unless specified otherwise, in this document fish includes finfish, crustaceans and molluscs.
² Unless specified otherwise, in this document the term country includes non-sovereign territory.
³ At the time of this analysis, the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species provides data on apparent
fish consumption at the level of species groups, including freshwater & diadromous fish, pelagic fish,
demersal fish, marine fish nei, crustaceans, molluscs excluding cephalopods (a.k.a. shell molluscs), and
cephalopods. The three marine fish species groups (i.e. pelagic fish, demersal fish and marine fish nei)
are grouped by the authors into marine fish, which, together with the other four species groups (i.e.
freshwater & diadromous fish, crustaceans, shell molluscs and cephalopods), are treated as the five basic
species groups used in the analysis.
4
At the time of this analysis, the FAO Food Balance Sheet does not contain data on freshwater fish
(carps, catfishes, tilapias, etc.) and diadromous fish (salmons, trouts, eels, etc.) as separate species
groups.
5
Molluscs = shell molluscs + cephalopods.
6
Shellfish = crustaceans + molluscs.
7
Finfish = marine fish + freshwater & diadromous fish.
8
Fish = finfish + shellfish.
2 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

salient results at the country level. However, key results at the country, regional and
global levels are presented in the appendix.

The study uses the situation in the mid-2010s as a baseline to project the demand-
supply gaps in the early 2020s. The five-year horizon is selected to match the planning
horizon for aquaculture and fisheries development in many countries. In principle, the
methodology can be used for short-term projections of any horizon.

The results of the fish demand-supply gap analysis can be used to facilitate evidence-
based policymaking and business decision-making at the country, regional and global
levels. But understanding of the methodology and its merits and constraints are
important to proper and flexible use of the results.

In section 2, the status and trends of fish consumption (including species composition)
during the recent five years are examined. The results indicate that world fish
consumption increased nearly 20 million tonnes from 2008 to 2013. About 40 percent
of the world fish consumption growth is attributable to population growth, whereas
the other 60 percent reflects the increase in per capita fish consumption.

In section 3, an econometric model is developed to estimate the impacts of income


growth on per capita fish consumption. The resulting income elasticities are used to
estimate income-driven per capita fish demand growth. The results, combined with
the population projection provided by the United Nations, are used to project future
fish demand in the early 2020s. Two scenarios are examined. The first scenario, the
standard scenario, uses the medium-fertility-variant population projection and mean
income elasticity coefficients to estimate future fish demand, whereas the second, the
conservative scenario, uses the low-fertility-variant population projection and the
lower bound of the 95 percent confidence interval of income elasticity coefficients for
the estimation.

In section 4, future fish demand-supply gaps are estimated by comparing fish demand
growth driven by population and income (estimated in section 3) to potential fish
supply growth generated from the trend aquaculture growth. Aquaculture growth
rates needed to satisfy the demand growth are estimated accordingly.

The last section – section 5 – summarizes the key results, examines the merits and
constraints (as well as potential remedies) of the study, and discusses how its results can
be used to facilitate evidence-based policymaking and sector management.
3

2. Status and trends of fish


consumption

2.1 HISTORICAL TRENDS OF FISH CONSUMPTION


World fish consumption increased from 121 million tonnes in 2008 to 140 million
tonnes in 2013,9 growing 2.9  percent annually and 19 million tonnes in total. About
40 percent of the 19-million-tonne growth is attributable to population growth from
6.7 billion to 7.1 billion (1.2 percent annual growth); the other 60 percent is due to the
increase in per capita fish consumption from 18 kg to nearly 20 kg (1.7 percent annual
growth). 10

Table 1 summarizes the status and trends of fish consumption from 2008 to 2013 at the
global and regional levels. Figure 1 illustrates countries’ per capita fish consumption in
2013. Some salient results are presented below.

High fish consumption growth in developing regions versus stagnant fish


consumption in developed regions11
From 2008 to 2013, per capita fish consumption increased from 16 kg to 19 kg in
developing regions and declined from 26 kg to 25 kg in developed regions. Per capita
fish consumption growth (in terms of annual growth rate) in developed countries
was mostly below the world average (Figure 2). Higher growth in per capita fish
consumption, together with stronger population growth, has increased the share of
developing regions in world fish consumption from 74 to 78 percent during the period.

Asia: high fish consumption growth


The share of Asia in world fish consumption increased from 67 percent in 2008 to
70 percent in 2013 because of its above-average growth in per capita fish consumption
(Figure 3). Eastern Asia contributed most of the growth, primarily because of
(mainland) China,12 whose share in world fish consumption increased from 33 to
37 percent during the 2008–2013 period. Some Eastern Asian countries (China, Macao
SAR, Japan, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea) had
decreased per capita fish consumption during the same period. In 2013, per capita fish
consumption in most South-eastern Asian countries (except Timor-Leste) was higher

9
Unless specified otherwise, fish consumption is measured by the apparent consumption of food fish (live
weight equivalent) estimated in the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0), where the data
are updated to year 2013.
10
The increase in total fish consumption could be broken up into three components. One is the pure
population effect measured by the increase in total fish consumption under constant per capita fish
consumption and growing population; another one is the pure per capita consumption effect measured
by the increase in total fish consumption under constant population and growing per capita fish
consumption; and the last one is the mixed effect that captures the interaction between the growing
population and per capita consumption. The total fish consumption growth attributable to population
growth is equal to the pure population effect plus half of the mixed effect, whereas that attributable to
per capita consumption growth is equal to the pure per capita consumption effect plus half of the mixed
effect.
11
According to the United Nations designation, developed regions include Europe, Northern America,
Japan, Australia and New Zealand, whereas other countries are considered developing regions.
12
In this document, China means mainland China.
4

TABLE 1
Regional and global fish consumption – 2008 versus 2013

Annual growth rate from


Total fish consumption Per capita fish consumption
2008 to 2013 (%)
Country or region Quantity (mt) % in world total Quantity (kg) Ratio to world average Per
Total Population
2008 2013 +/- 2008 2013 +/- 2008 2013 +/- 2008 2013 +/- capita

World 121.37 140.16 18.79 100.00 100.00 0.00 18.09 19.68 1.59 1.00 1.00 0.00 2.92 1.70 1.17
Developed regions 31.57 30.84 -0.73 26.01 22.00 -4.01 25.81 24.78 -1.02 1.43 1.26 -0.17 -0.47 -0.81 0.34
Developing regions 89.80 109.32 19.52 73.99 78.00 4.01 16.36 18.59 2.23 0.90 0.94 0.04 4.01 2.59 1.35
Least developed countries 8.44 11.19 2.75 6.95 7.98 1.03 10.65 12.57 1.92 0.59 0.64 0.05 5.81 3.37 2.13
Small Island Developing States 1.00 0.99 -0.02 0.83 0.70 -0.12 16.20 14.97 -1.24 0.90 0.76 -0.14 -0.32 -1.58 1.14
Landlocked developing countries 1.33 1.69 0.37 1.09 1.21 0.12 3.43 3.88 0.46 0.19 0.20 0.01 5.00 2.55 2.38
Africa 9.21 10.97 1.77 7.59 7.83 0.24 9.32 9.82 0.50 0.51 0.50 -0.02 3.57 1.06 2.39
Northern Africa 2.18 2.86 0.69 1.79 2.04 0.25 10.63 13.41 2.78 0.59 0.68 0.09 5.64 4.76 0.98
Sub-Saharan Africa 7.10 8.15 1.04 5.85 5.81 -0.04 8.59 8.66 0.06 0.47 0.44 -0.04 2.78 0.15 2.51
Southern Africa 0.38 0.37 -0.02 0.32 0.26 -0.06 6.68 5.98 -0.71 0.37 0.30 -0.07 -0.98 -2.21 1.26
Eastern Africa 1.31 1.77 0.46 1.08 1.26 0.18 4.22 4.79 0.57 0.23 0.24 0.01 6.19 2.56 2.82
Western Africa 4.10 4.57 0.47 3.38 3.26 -0.12 14.08 13.68 -0.40 0.78 0.70 -0.08 2.20 -0.57 2.80
Middle Africa 1.24 1.40 0.17 1.02 1.00 -0.02 10.08 9.82 -0.26 0.56 0.50 -0.06 2.58 -0.52 3.11
Americas 12.97 13.80 0.83 10.68 9.84 -0.84 14.05 14.18 0.13 0.78 0.72 -0.06 1.25 0.18 1.05
Northern America 7.37 7.68 0.31 6.07 5.48 -0.59 21.81 21.80 -0.01 1.21 1.11 -0.10 0.84 -0.01 0.85
Latin America and the Caribbean 5.60 6.11 0.52 4.61 4.36 -0.25 9.58 9.85 0.28 0.53 0.50 -0.03 1.78 0.57 1.17
Central America 1.67 1.83 0.16 1.38 1.31 -0.07 10.69 10.90 0.21 0.59 0.55 -0.04 1.89 0.39 1.49
Caribbean 0.44 0.36 -0.08 0.36 0.26 -0.10 10.76 8.51 -2.25 0.59 0.43 -0.16 -3.71 -4.58 0.66
South America 3.49 3.92 0.43 2.88 2.80 -0.08 9.00 9.56 0.56 0.50 0.49 -0.01 2.34 1.21 1.09
Asia 81.86 98.19 16.33 67.45 70.06 2.61 20.21 22.95 2.74 1.12 1.17 0.05 3.71 2.57 1.07
Eastern Asia 51.33 61.76 10.44 42.29 44.07 1.78 32.91 38.65 5.74 1.82 1.96 0.14 3.77 3.27 0.49
South-eastern Asia 17.94 21.64 3.71 14.78 15.44 0.66 30.76 34.98 4.22 1.70 1.78 0.08 3.83 2.61 1.19
Western Asia 1.63 1.85 0.22 1.34 1.32 -0.03 7.36 7.47 0.10 0.41 0.38 -0.03 2.53 0.28 2.25
Central Asia 0.13 0.15 0.01 0.11 0.10 -0.01 2.20 2.23 0.03 0.12 0.11 -0.01 1.92 0.31 1.57
South Asia 10.83 12.79 1.96 8.93 9.13 0.20 6.58 7.25 0.67 0.36 0.37 0.00 3.38 1.95 1.39
Europe 16.44 16.25 -0.19 13.55 11.59 -1.95 22.44 22.05 -0.40 1.24 1.12 -0.12 -0.23 -0.36 0.13
Southern Europe 4.47 4.55 0.08 3.68 3.24 -0.44 29.37 29.76 0.39 1.62 1.51 -0.11 0.34 0.26 0.08
Northern Europe 2.50 2.54 0.04 2.06 1.81 -0.25 25.53 25.16 -0.36 1.41 1.28 -0.13 0.33 -0.28 0.61
Eastern Europe 5.19 5.04 -0.15 4.28 3.60 -0.68 17.58 17.17 -0.42 0.97 0.87 -0.10 -0.60 -0.48 -0.12
Western Europe 4.27 4.12 -0.15 3.52 2.94 -0.58 22.87 21.73 -1.14 1.26 1.10 -0.16 -0.73 -1.02 0.30
Oceania 0.90 0.94 0.05 0.74 0.67 -0.07 25.59 24.78 -0.82 1.41 1.26 -0.16 1.03 -0.65 1.67
Australia/New Zealand 0.68 0.72 0.04 0.56 0.52 -0.04 26.41 26.05 -0.36 1.46 1.32 -0.14 1.29 -0.28 1.57
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Pacific islands 0.22 0.22 0.00 0.18 0.16 -0.02 23.18 21.24 -1.95 1.28 1.08 -0.20 0.22 -1.74 1.92
Source: authors’ estimation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).
FIGURE 1
Global overview of per capita fish consumption, 2013
Status and trends of fish consumption

Source: Authors’ estimation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0) and the United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (POP/DB/WPP/Rev.2015/POP/F01-1).
Image source: @2017 Google.
5
6 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

FIGURE 2
Status and trends of per capita fish consumption in developing versus developed regions

Source: Authors’ estimation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).

FIGURE 3
Status and trends of per capita fish consumption in Asian countries

Source: Authors’ estimation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).

than the world average, but some countries, such as Malaysia and the Philippines,
had below-average per capita fish consumption growth during the 2008–2013 period.
Many of the South Asian countries had below-average per capita fish consumption,
yet above-average growth rates in fish consumption. Most countries in Central and
Western Asia had below-average fish consumption levels and/or growth rates.

Africa: strong population growth yet weak growth in per capita fish
consumption
The share of sub-Saharan Africa in world fish consumption declined slightly from
5.85 to 5.81 percent in spite of strong population growth in the region. This reflects the
Status and trends of fish consumption 7

stagnant growth of its already low per capita fish consumption from 8.6 kg to 8.7 kg
(Figure 1). Eastern Africa had the lowest per capita fish consumption in the region,
but it was the only sub-Saharan African subregion that increased its per capita fish
consumption and share in world fish consumption (Table 1).

Northern Africa increased its share in world fish consumption from 1.8 to 2.0 percent
during the 2008–2013 period, primarily because of Egypt, the only country in the
subregion with both an above-average fish consumption level and growth rate
(Figure 4).

The Americas: stagnant per capita fish consumption


Per capita fish consumption in Latin America and the Caribbean is below the
world average (Figure 5). Its growth from 2008 to 2013 was also below the world
average; so was the population growth in the region. Thus, its share in world fish
consumption declined from 4.6 to 4.4 percent during the 2008–2013 period. Per capita
fish consumption in the Caribbean was high, yet its growth is low. Many Caribbean
countries had below average or even negative growth in per capita fish consumption.
Most countries in Central and South America had low per capita fish consumption as
well as low per capita fish consumption growth.

During the same period, Northern America reduced its share in world fish consumption
from 6.1 to 5.5 percent because of stagnant per capita fish consumption growth
in Canada and the United States of America. Most countries or territories (except
Bermuda) in the region had an above-average fish consumption level, yet below-
average consumption growth (Figure 5).

Europe: decreased share in world fish consumption


Europe reduced its share in world fish consumption from 14 to 12 percent during
the 2008–2013 period (Figure 6). This reflects its negative growth in per capita fish
consumption and stagnant population growth. Most subregions in Europe (except
Southern Europe) had decreased per capita fish consumption during the period.

FIGURE 4
Status and trends of per capita fish consumption in African countries

Source: Authors’ estimation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).
8 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

FIGURE 5
Status and trends of per capita fish consumption for countries in the Americas

Source: Authors’ estimation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).

FIGURE 6
Status and trends of per capita fish consumption in European countries

Source: Authors’ estimation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).

Eastern Europe, however, had negative population growth as well as negative growth
in per capita fish consumption (Table 1).

Oceania: high yet decreased per capita fish consumption


Most Pacific Island countries or territories have above-average per capita fish
consumption (Figure 7). But the subregion’s per capita fish consumption declined
from 23 kg in 2008 to 21 kg in 2013. Similar to other developed regions, Australia and
New Zealand had reduced per capita fish consumption from 26.4 kg to 26.1 kg during
the 2008–2013 period (Figure 7). Even with above-average population growth, the two
subregions’ shares in world fish consumption declined slightly during that period.
Status and trends of fish consumption 9

FIGURE 7
Status and trends of per capita fish consumption in Oceanian countries

Source: Authors’ estimation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).

2.2 SPECIES COMPOSITION OF FISH CONSUMPTION


The growth of world per capita fish consumption from 18 kg in 2008 to 20 kg in 2013
was contributed by an increase in per capita consumption of freshwater & diadromous
fish, crustaceans and shell molluscs, whereas that of marine fish and cephalopods
declined (Figure 8). The species composition of fish consumption at the regional level
is shown in Figure 9.

Marine fish used to be the largest species group in world fish consumption, but its
share declined from 53 percent in 1993 to 37 percent in 2013, surpassed by freshwater
& diadromous fish.13 However, the world average of 37 percent does not properly
reflect the situation that marine fish is still the dominant species in most countries’
fish consumption. Indeed, in 2013 marine fish accounted for more than half of fish
consumption in more than 170 countries (Figure 10).

Freshwater & diadromous fish had the highest growth in world fish consumption,
increasing from 3.2 kg in 1993 to 7.5 kg in 2013. Although freshwater & diadromous
fish became the largest species group in world fish consumption in 2013, it is a dominant
species group (i.e. more than half of fish consumption) in only 31 countries, primarily in
Asia and Africa. In 136 countries, it is still a minor species group relative to marine fish,
accounting for less than 25 percent of fish consumption (Figure 11).

Crustaceans accounted for nearly 10 percent of world fish consumption in 2013,


increasing from 8 percent in 1993 (Figure 8). However, crustaceans accounted for
more than 10 percent of fish consumption in only 47 countries; in 165 countries its
share was less than 10  percent and in 126 countries less than 5 percent. Developed
regions generally have higher consumption of crustaceans (generally considered a

13
This reflects the situation that capture fisheries production, which is the primary source of marine fish,
has been stagnant; on the other hand, the production of freshwater & diadromous fish has increased
significantly thanks to the rapid growth in aquaculture production. However, it is worth noting that
the increase in world consumption of freshwater & diadromous fish is contributed primarily by a few
populous countries with strong growth in freshwater aquaculture (e.g. China and India).
10 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

FIGURE 8
Species composition of world per capita fish consumption

25

Per capita consumption (kg/capita/year)


20 19.68
18.09
16.54

15
13.89

10

7.30 7.41 7.56 7.46


7.23
6.03
5 4.72
3.18 2.61
1.83 2.33 2.25
1.51 1.66 1.87
1.10 0.48 0.58 0.58 0.51
0
1993 2003 2008 2013

Marine Freshwater & Shell


Crustaceans Cephalopods Fish
fish diadromous fish molluscs

1993 2013
Cephalopods Shell molluscs Cephalopods
Shell molluscs
3.5% 13.3% 2.6%
13.1%
Crustaceans Crustaceans
7.9% 9.5%

Freshwater Freshwater
Marine fish Marine fish
& diadromous fish & diadromous fish
52.6% 36.7%
22.9% 37.9%

Source: Authors’ estimation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).

luxury seafood) than developing regions in terms of both the amount and the share
in fish consumption. Countries in Eastern Asia, the Caribbean, Central America,
Northern  America, Western Europe and Northern Europe generally have a higher
share of crustaceans in their fish consumption than countries in other regions. The
share of crustaceans in fish consumption was less than 5 percent in nearly all countries
on the African continent (Figure 12).

Shell molluscs accounted for 13 percent of world fish consumption in 2013; the share
is nearly the same as in 1993 (Figure 8). The species group accounted for more than
10 percent of fish consumption in only 29 countries, whereas in 159 countries its share
was less than 10 percent and in 132 countries less than 5 percent. Countries in Eastern
Asia, the Caribbean, Northern America, Southern and Western Europe generally had
a higher share of this species group compared with countries in other regions. No
Status and trends of fish consumption 11

FIGURE 9
Fish consumption in 2013 by species and region

World Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania

Source: Authors’ calculation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).

country on the African continent had higher than a 5 percent share of this species
group (Figure 13).

Cephalopods accounted for 2.6 percent of world fish consumption in 2013; the share
declined from 3.5 percent in 1993 (Figure 8). Indeed, world per capita cephalopod
consumption declined from 0.58 kg in 2008 to 0.51 in 2013 (Figure 8). The species
group accounted for more than 5 percent of fish consumption in only 18 countries; in
160 countries its share was less than 5 percent and in 104 countries less than 1 percent.
Generally speaking, countries in Eastern Asia and Southern Europe had a higher share
of this species group compared with countries in other regions (Figure 14).
12

FIGURE 10
Contribution of marine fish to fish consumption, 2013

Source: Authors’ calculation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Image source: @2017 Google.


FIGURE 11
Contribution of freshwater & diadromous fish to fish consumption, 2013
Status and trends of fish consumption

Source: Authors’ calculation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).
13

Image source: @2017 Google.


14

FIGURE 12
Contribution of crustaceans to fish consumption, 2013

Source: Authors’ calculation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Image source: @2017 Google.


FIGURE 13
Contribution of shell molluscs to fish consumption, 2013
Status and trends of fish consumption

Source: Authors’ calculation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).
15

Image source: @2017 Google.


16

FIGURE 14
Contribution of cephalopods to fish consumption, 2013

Source: Authors’ calculation based on the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0).
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Image source: @2017 Google.


17

3. Estimating future fish demand

An econometric model is developed to estimate the income elasticity of fish demand,


which measures the impact of income growth on per capita fish demand. The estimated
income elasticity coefficients are then used to project per capita fish demand in the
early 2020s at the country, regional and global levels. Finally, the projected per capita
fish demand is combined with the United Nations population projection to estimate
total fish demand in the early 2020s.

The basic results at the country level for the five basic species groups (i.e. marine
fish, freshwater & diadromous fish, crustaceans, shell molluscs and cephalopods)
are directly estimated; the results for the four more aggregated species groups (i.e.
molluscs, shellfish, finfish and fish), or at the regional or global levels, are derived from
the aggregation of the basic results.

3.1 ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF INCOME ON PER CAPITA FISH DEMAND


The model
Equation (1) describes the model for estimating the impact of income growth on fish
consumption.

ln(Cit) = α + βln(Yit) + γln(Pit) + ui + eit (1)

It is a panel model, where i denotes country and t denotes time. The model is used
to run five separate regressions, one for each of the five basic species groups. For
example, in the regression for marine fish, the historical trends of per capita marine
fish consumption in all countries are pooled together to estimate the impact of income
growth on marine fish consumption.

The dependent variable C denotes per capita fish consumption, or more exactly, the
per  capita consumption of a fish species group. For narrative convenience, unless
associated with a specific number indicating otherwise, the term “fish consumption (or
demand)” generally means the consumption (or demand) of a fish species group, but
not specifically the consumption (or demand) of fish as a whole.

The independent variables Y and P denote per capita income and fish price, respectively.
For comparability across countries and over time, they are measured in real terms. Both the
own price and the prices of substitute goods (e.g. alternative fish species and/or meats) were
initially included in P, yet eventually dropped because their coefficients are not statistically
significant. Therefore, the final model specification includes only the own price.

In a review of seafood demand studies, Asche, Bjørndal and Gordon (2007) reported
that there are few studies showing that seafood and terrestrial meats are substitutes.
Moreover, Tveterås et al. (2012) indicate that, while there are global markets for
different main groups of fish species, there is little market integration between the main
species groups. Another issue is limited data availability. For example, adding the meat
price to the model for marine fish would reduce the number of countries included in
the estimation from 187 to 109 and the number of observations from 1 109 to 646. The
resulting loss of degree of freedom would cause collinearity problems that make some
countries or subregions dropped from the estimation.
18 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Coefficient β (i.e. the income elasticity of fish demand) is the key parameter to be
estimated. It measures the impact of income growth on fish demand. More specifically,
it measures what percentage a country’s fish demand would change if its per capita
income changes by 1 percent, given that other factors remain unchanged. Theoretically,
the panel model in equation (1) can be used to estimate a distinct β for each country, but
such a specification does not give statistically significant β for every country because
of the limited amount and quality of data. Thus, we estimate a distinct β only for the
top 20 countries with the largest fish consumption in 2013 and group other countries
into 20 geographic subregions; countries in each subregion are assumed to have
identical income elasticity. This assumption is technically necessary, and it is justifiable
because countries in the same subregion generally tend to have similar dietary habits.
Bangladesh, one of the top 20 countries, is grouped into South Asia in the estimations
for shell molluscs and cephalopods because the estimated β for Bangladesh as a distinct
country is not statistically significant for the two species groups.

Coefficient γ (i.e. the own price elasticity of fish demand) measures the impact of the
price of a fish on its demand. The price elasticity is not the focus of the estimation
because of the lack of worldwide data on domestic fish prices – there would be a more
detailed discussion on this data limitation below. However, inclusion of the price variable
is necessary to obtain more accurate estimations on β. Originally, a distinct γ is specified
for each of the top 20 countries and the 20 subregions. Yet this specification is discarded,
because the estimated coefficients are the correct signs and significant for a few countries
or subregions, the correct signs yet insignificant for many countries or subregions, and
the wrong signs and insignificant for a few countries or subregions. This may be caused
by a varied quality of price data across countries. Thus, in the estimation for each of the
five basic species groups, the final model specification assumes a uniform price elasticity
γ across all countries in order to avoid an unwanted ad hoc effect on the estimation of
income elasticity β, which is the targeted parameter in this study.

Coefficient α is the intercept. Parameter u is the random effect parameter that captures
countries’ idiosyncratic preference over fish consumption. Parameter e is an auto-
regressive AR (1) error term that captures general shocks.

Data
Population
Data on per capita consumption and per capita income in official databases are not used
in this study because population data used to calculate them may not be consistent
in different databases. Instead, population data from the United Nations World
Population Prospects: the 2015 Revision (POP/DB/WPP/Rev.2015/POP/F01-1) is
used to calculate per capita variables used in this study. When the United Nations
World Population Prospects database does not contain data for a country or territory,
population data provided by the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0)
are used.

Consumption
A country’s per capita fish consumption is calculated from the country’s total fish
consumption divided by its population. The data on countries’ total fish consumption
are obtained from the FAO Food Balance Sheet for fish species (v. 2016.1.0) published
through FishStatJ; the data source for the population is explained above. Observations
with per capita fish consumption less than 0.1 percent of the world average are treated
as outliers and not used in the estimations. This has led to a loss of 0.1 percent of
observations for marine fish, 2 percent for freshwater & diadromous fish, 6 percent for
crustaceans, 10 percent for shell molluscs, and 7 percent for cephalopods.
Estimating future fish demand 19

Income
Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is used as a proxy of per capita income. The
GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) is used because it is more
comparable across countries and over time. The data on GDP adjusted for PPP from
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database (April
2016)14 and the population data from the United Nations are used to calculate GDP
per capita adjusted for PPP.

Price
Worldwide data on countries’ domestic fish prices are not readily available. FAO
provides worldwide data on a country’s aquaculture production (both quantity and
value),15 which can be used to calculate the price of domestic aquaculture production.
FAO also provides worldwide data on the quantity and value of fish imports,16
which can be used to calculate the price of a country’s fish imports. Since a country’s
domestic fish prices are determined by the prices of domestically produced fish as well
as imported fish, a weighted average of these two prices  (i.e. cultured fish price and
imported fish price) is used to construct a proxy of domestic fish price.

The “ratio of aquaculture production relative to fish consumption” (denoted as w)


is used as the weight for cultured fish price; w is set to unity if it is greater than one.
The corresponding weight for imported fish price is 1 – w. The rationale behind this
weighting scheme is that, generally speaking, the greater a country’s aquaculture
production is compared to its fish consumption, the more its domestic fish price would
be under the influence of its cultured fish price.

For countries that do not have a proxy domestic fish price under the weighting
scheme, their imported fish prices are used as the proxy. If imported fish prices are also
unavailable, the cultured fish prices are used.

The resulting prices over US$20/kg, which are less than 1 percent of the data, are
treated as outliers and not used in the estimations. Because per capita GDP adjusted
for PPP is used, the price is adjusted for PPP by multiplying per capita GDP (PPP
measure) and then dividing per capita GDP (current United States dollar measure).

Summary
Eventually, the estimation model covers a five-year period from 2008 to 2013 for nearly
200 countries for four basic species groups (marine fish, crustaceans, shell molluscs and
cephalopods); the model for freshwater & diadromous covers a seven-year period from
2006 to 2013 (Table 2).

Although data are available from 1980 to 2013, only data in the most recent five
years are used in estimations in order to capture the current situation. For the case of
freshwater & diadromous fish, using the five-year period from 2008 to 2013 or a six-
year period from 2007 to 2013 does not result in statistically significant coefficients for
all countries and subregions; thus, the period is extended to 2006–2013, which leads to
statistically significant income and price elasticity coefficients.

14
The dataset contains time series (1980–2021) data on the GDP for 190 countries.
15
Global Aquaculture Production Quantity (1950–2014) and Value (1984–2014) in the FAO Fishery and
Aquaculture Statistics v. 2016.1.2 (published through FishStatJ).
16
Global Commodity Production and Trade Quantity and Value (1976–2013) in the FAO Fishery and
Aquaculture Statistics v. 2016.1.2.
20 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

TABLE 2
Data used in estimations

Species group Period Number of countries Number of observations

Marine fish 2008–2013 187 1 109


Freshwater & diadromous fish 2006–2013 188 1 426
Crustaceans 2008–2013 176 982
Shell molluscs 2008–2013 163 854
Cephalopods 2008–2013 154 803
Source: Author’s estimation.

Income elasticity
The panel model in equation (1) is used to estimate the income elasticity of demand
for the five basic fish species groups. The estimated income elasticities are presented in
Figure 15A for the 20 subregions and Figure 15B for the top 20 countries.

More detailed results, including the 95 percent confidence interval of the income
elasticity coefficients, are presented in Table 3; the results indicate that in all five
estimations all coefficients are of the expected signs and statistically significant at
95 percent.

In general, the income elasticity coefficients for the two finfish species groups are lower
than the three shellfish species groups, which are generally more luxurious goods,
and the income elasticity of demand for freshwater & diadromous fish is the lowest.
While the income elasticity coefficients are mostly between 0.5 and 0.6 for marine fish
and below 0.5 for freshwater & diadromous fish, they are mostly greater than 1 for
crustaceans, shell molluscs and cephalopods.

3.2 ESTIMATING PER CAPITA FISH DEMAND IN THE FUTURE


The per capita fish demand of a country in the future is estimated by equation (2).

Cfuture = Cbenchmark × (Yfuture / Ybenchmark )𝜷 (2)

Intuitively, given per capita fish consumption in the benchmark year (Cbenchmark), the
expected income growth during the projection period (Yfuture/Ybenchmark), and other
factors that affect fish demand (fish price, consumer preference, etc.) remaining the
status quo, per capita fish demand in the future is expected to be Cfuture.

The projection horizon is five years, from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s. Per
capita fish consumption in 2013, the latest data on fish consumption available at the
time of this analysis, is used to represent the benchmark per capita fish consumption
(Cbenchmark) in the mid-2010s. This essentially assumes that the mid-2010 per capita fish
consumption in each country is at the level of its consumption in 2013.17 The average
per capita GDP (PPP adjusted) in 2015 and 2016 is used to represent the benchmark
income (Ybenchmark) in the mid-2010s, whereas the average expected income in 2020 and
2021 is used to represent the future income (Ybenchmark) in the early 2020s. The parameter
β is estimated by the model in equation (1), which is assumed to be constant during the
projection period.

Even though each country’s per capita fish consumption in the mid-2010s is assumed to be at the level
17

in 2013, the per capita consumption of a subregion, region or the entire world in the mid-2010s, which
is a weighted average of per capita consumption in relevant individual countries (with their population
being the respective weights), may be different from that in 2013 because the population of countries is
different in the mid-2010s than in 2013.
Estimating future fish demand 21

FIGURE 15A
Estimated income elasticity coefficients for the five basic species groups (20 subregions)

Marine fish Freshwater & diadromous fish


Crustaceans Shell molluscs
Cephalopods

Source: Author’s estimation.

FIGURE 15B
Estimated income elasticity coefficients for the five basic species groups
(top 20 countries with the largest fish consumption)

Marine fish Freshwater & diadromous fish


Crustaceans Shell molluscs
Cephalopods

Source: Author’s estimation.


TABLE 3
22

Estimated income elasticity coefficients


Marine fish Freshwater & diadromous fish Crustaceans Shell molluscs Cephalopods
Subregions and top
20 countries Mean 95% confidence Mean 95% confidence Mean 95% confidence Mean 95% confidence Mean 95% confidence
coefficient level coefficient level coefficient level coefficient level coefficient level
Eastern Africa 0.4698 0.3011 0.6385 0.4744 0.2652 0.6836 1.1956 0.9290 1.4621 0.9981 0.6973 1.2989 1.2940 0.9683 1.6196
Middle Africa 0.6254 0.4616 0.7892 0.5432 0.3418 0.7446 1.0934 0.8389 1.3479 0.9132 0.6370 1.1894 1.2795 0.9806 1.5783
Northern Africa 0.5165 0.3602 0.6727 0.2222 0.0264 0.4181 1.0878 0.8409 1.3348 0.8212 0.5488 1.0936 1.3372 1.0393 1.6351
Southern Africa 0.4844 0.3148 0.6540 0.2792 0.0754 0.4829 1.0639 0.8085 1.3194 0.9763 0.6870 1.2656 1.2271 0.9155 1.5386
Western Africa 0.6849 0.5107 0.8590 0.5013 0.2845 0.7180 1.1734 0.8955 1.4514 1.0764 0.7594 1.3934 1.3556 1.0059 1.7054
Central Asia 0.3828 0.2105 0.5551 0.3399 0.1312 0.5485 0.8236 0.5604 1.0867 0.8269 0.5328 1.1210 1.0680 0.7506 1.3854
Eastern Asia 0.5229 0.3738 0.6721 0.4451 0.2652 0.6249 1.2787 1.0555 1.5018 1.2255 0.9807 1.4703 1.3764 1.1103 1.6426
South Asia 0.5744 0.4084 0.7404 0.4463 0.2447 0.6479 1.0780 0.8244 1.3317 0.9741 0.6745 1.2736 1.2768 0.9581 1.5955
South-eastern Asia 0.5582 0.4018 0.7147 0.4662 0.2782 0.6542 1.1802 0.9442 1.4161 1.1555 0.8949 1.4161 1.3523 1.0687 1.6358
Western Asia 0.5294 0.3991 0.6598 0.3529 0.1919 0.5139 1.0654 0.8569 1.2739 0.8923 0.6581 1.1265 1.1769 0.9199 1.4338
Eastern Europe 0.5459 0.4022 0.6897 0.4755 0.3000 0.6510 1.0562 0.8320 1.2803 0.9491 0.6990 1.1993 1.1632 0.8893 1.4370
Northern Europe 0.6062 0.4759 0.7366 0.4763 0.3163 0.6362 1.2537 1.0489 1.4585 1.0826 0.8537 1.3115 1.1122 0.8608 1.3635
Southern Europe 0.5797 0.4382 0.7211 0.4438 0.2714 0.6161 1.1208 0.8999 1.3417 1.1528 0.9065 1.3992 1.4763 1.2061 1.7465
Western Europe 0.5391 0.4027 0.6755 0.4839 0.3197 0.6481 1.1787 0.9713 1.3862 1.1006 0.8711 1.3300 1.2179 0.9671 1.4687
Caribbean 0.6418 0.5007 0.7828 0.2647 0.0919 0.4376 1.2400 1.0173 1.4627 1.2155 0.9630 1.4679 1.2760 0.9993 1.5528
Central America 0.5254 0.3653 0.6855 0.3952 0.2009 0.5896 1.3046 1.0584 1.5508 1.1537 0.8799 1.4275 1.2871 0.9878 1.5863
South America 0.5309 0.3863 0.6755 0.3905 0.2126 0.5684 1.1819 0.9542 1.4097 1.0792 0.8245 1.3339 1.2684 0.9895 1.5473
Northern America 0.5352 0.3099 0.7606 0.4763 0.2206 0.7320 1.2796 0.9792 1.5800 1.2178 0.9028 1.5328 1.0859 0.7504 1.4214
Australia/New Zealand 0.5927 0.4125 0.7730 0.4219 0.2125 0.6312 1.2488 0.9957 1.5019 1.1448 0.8730 1.4166 1.3966 1.1034 1.6897
Pacific Islands 0.8416 0.6757 1.0075 0.2624 0.0578 0.4671 1.3815 1.1198 1.6433 1.2442 0.9500 1.5385 1.5088 1.1890 1.8286
China 0.5381 0.2816 0.7946 0.6886 0.3936 0.9836 1.4467 1.1017 1.7918 1.4798 1.1172 1.8425 1.5424 1.1556 1.9291
Indonesia 0.6857 0.4232 0.9481 0.6385 0.3387 0.9383 1.4218 1.0707 1.7730 1.0960 0.7275 1.4646 1.4983 1.1059 1.8908
India 0.4460 0.1637 0.7283 0.6068 0.2836 0.9299 1.3169 0.9385 1.6954 0.8380 0.4402 1.2357 1.0359 0.6057 1.4660
United States of America 0.5081 0.2865 0.7297 0.4833 0.2322 0.7343 1.2814 0.9862 1.5765 1.1952 0.8859 1.5046 1.2496 0.9201 1.5791
Japan 0.6501 0.4211 0.8792 0.5119 0.2522 0.7717 1.3474 1.0421 1.6527 1.3045 0.9846 1.6244 1.5441 1.2032 1.8849
Bangladesh* 0.5199 0.2198 0.8200 0.8120 0.4684 1.1555 1.5740 1.1714 1.9765 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Russian Federation 0.5994 0.3625 0.8362 0.5542 0.2844 0.8239 1.1553 0.8390 1.4716 1.0829 0.7511 1.4148 1.4317 1.0784 1.7850
Myanmar 0.8358 0.5474 1.1242 0.8481 0.5183 1.1780 1.1670 0.7806 1.5534 0.7260 0.3042 1.1478 1.1849 0.7528 1.6169
Viet Nam 0.7063 0.4236 0.9891 0.7498 0.4268 1.0728 1.6018 1.2235 1.9800 1.5163 1.1190 1.9137 1.8449 1.4220 2.2678
Philippines 0.7311 0.4562 1.0060 0.6626 0.3486 0.9766 1.4354 1.0673 1.8035 1.3462 0.9604 1.7320 1.6299 1.2183 2.0414
Korea, Republic of 0.6702 0.4389 0.9015 0.3920 0.1288 0.6551 1.2730 0.9645 1.5815 1.3383 1.0150 1.6616 1.6097 1.2651 1.9543
Nigeria 0.6644 0.3851 0.9436 0.5657 0.2467 0.8847 1.1016 0.7283 1.4748 0.9629 0.5711 1.3547 1.0253 0.6079 1.4428
France 0.6040 0.3769 0.8311 0.4878 0.2303 0.7452 1.2666 0.9641 1.5691 1.2948 0.9778 1.6119 1.3132 0.9753 1.6510
Spain 0.6364 0.4057 0.8670 0.4942 0.2330 0.7555 1.2872 0.9801 1.5944 1.2885 0.9668 1.6103 1.5409 1.1979 1.8838
Brazil 0.5218 0.2722 0.7714 0.5086 0.2245 0.7926 1.1973 0.8644 1.5302 1.0318 0.6828 1.3808 1.1733 0.8013 1.5453
Egypt 0.6028 0.3434 0.8622 0.6649 0.3706 0.9592 1.2600 0.9146 1.6053 0.9854 0.6232 1.3476 1.3908 1.0055 1.7760
Thailand 0.6089 0.3584 0.8594 0.6165 0.3311 0.9019 1.2779 0.9433 1.6125 1.2799 0.9293 1.6305 1.6207 1.2469 1.9945
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Malaysia 0.7152 0.4759 0.9544 0.5356 0.2632 0.8080 1.3630 1.0436 1.6824 1.2312 0.8965 1.5659 1.5670 1.2102 1.9238
Mexico 0.5529 0.3052 0.8006 0.4936 0.2125 0.7748 1.3004 0.9702 1.6306 1.1670 0.8205 1.5134 1.4292 1.0603 1.7980
Italy 0.5771 0.3481 0.8062 0.4548 0.1956 0.7140 1.2259 0.9210 1.5307 1.2478 0.9284 1.5672 1.5217 1.1813 1.8621
Source: Author’s estimation. *For shell molluscs or cephalopods, no distinct income elasticity coefficient is estimated for Bangladesh; the country is grouped into South Asia.
Estimating future fish demand 23

Individual countries’ per capita demand for the five basic species groups (i.e. marine
fish, freshwater & diadromous fish, crustaceans, shell molluscs and cephalopods) is
estimated by equation (2). The basic results are then aggregated into per capita fish
demand in regions and the world. The results for the five basic species groups at the
national, regional and global levels are further aggregated into per capita demand for
the four more aggregate species groups (i.e. molluscs, shellfish, finfish and fish).

Expected growth in per capita income from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
The GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) is used to measure per capita income. The
projection of GDP per capita is calculated from the IMF World Economic Outlook
projections on GDP divided by the United Nations projections on population. Nearly
all countries are expected to have positive income growth during the period from the
mid-2010s to the early 2020s. Countries with relatively high income growth (annual
growth of 5 percent or above) are concentrated in Asia, Eastern Africa, Western Africa
and Eastern Europe (Figure 16).

Expected growth in per capita fish demand from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Given no changes in other factors that affect fish demand, such as fish price and
consumer preference, income growth would tend to increase world per capita fish
demand by 5.2 kg, from 19.5 kg18 in the mid-2010s to 24.7 kg in the early 2020s; finfish
and shellfish account for 53 and 47 percent of the growth, respectively (Figure 17).

Per capita fish demand is expected to increase at all regional and subregional levels for
all the five basic species groups (Figure 18). Eastern Asia and South-eastern Asia would
have the greatest demand increases because of their relatively high fish consumption
and fast income growth.

Per capita fish demand is expected to decline in only a few countries (Ecuador,
Equatorial Guinea, Timor-Leste and Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of) because of
their negative expected income growth (Figure 19).19 In the majority of the countries,
the increase in per capita fish demand is less than 5 kg. In many countries, the
increase is less than 1 kg. Countries with relatively high growth in per capita fish
demand (higher than 5 kg) are concentrated in Eastern, South and South-eastern Asia,
including Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China and China, Hong Kong
SAR, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, the
Philippines, Sri Lanka, Taiwan Province of China, Thailand and Viet Nam. A number
of small island developing states – including Fiji, Kiribati, Palau, Samoa, Singapore
and Tuvalu in the Pacific; Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Barbados
in the Caribbean Sea; and Seychelles in the Indian Ocean – would also have relatively
high growth in per capita fish demand. Other countries with relatively high growth
in per capita demand include Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Norway, Portugal and
Spain in Europe; Ghana, Gabon, Senegal and Sierra Leone in Africa; and Guyana in
South America (Figure 19).

3.3 ESTIMATING FUTURE FISH DEMAND


Estimated per capita fish demand in the future, combined with the population
projection provided by the United Nations, is used to estimate countries’ future
demands for the five basic species groups (marine fish, freshwater & diadromous fish,

The world average figure here, which is calculated based on countries’ benchmark population (the average
18

of the population in 2015 and 2016), is slightly different from the one presented in previous sections
(19.7 kg), which is calculated based on their population in 2013; see the explanation in footnote 17.
It should be noted that per capita income is measured by per capita GDP adjusted for PPP.
19
24

FIGURE 16
Annual per capita income growth from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s

Source: Authors’ estimation.


Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Image source: @2017 Google.


Estimating future fish demand 25

FIGURE 17
World per capita fish demand growth (kg/person) from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s

Cephalopods, 0.2, 4%

Marine fish, 1.1, 21%


Shell molluscs, 1.4, 27%
%
, 47
.4
,2
fish
ell Per capita fish
Sh demand growth:
5.2 kg
%
, 53
, 2.7
ish
nf
Fi

Crustaceans, 0.8, 16%

Freshwater & diadromous fish, 1.6, 32%

Source: Author’s estimation.

crustaceans, shell molluscs, and cephalopods) at the country level. The basic results
are aggregated into more aggregate species groups (molluscs, shellfish, finfish and fish)
and/or at the regional or global levels.

Population growth
World population is expected to increase from 7.3 billion in the mid-2010s to 7.7 billion
in the early 2020s (Figure 20).20 The situation of individual countries is presented in
Figure 21. Most of the world population growth (96 percent) in the near future will
come from developing regions. Asia, Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean
would account for 50 percent, 38 percent and 8 percent of the growth, respectively. In
Asia, South Asia accounts for more than half of the population growth in the region.
Europe accounts for less than a half percent of the world population growth. Indeed,
the population in Eastern and Southern Europe is expected to decline (Figure 20), as
in Japan and a few Caribbean countries (Figure 21). Northern America accounts for
3 percent of world population growth during the period.

Countries with relatively large population growth include Bangladesh,


China, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Pakistan and the Philippines in Asia; the
Democratic  Republic  of  the  Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, the Sudan,
Uganda and the United  Republic  of Tanzania in Africa; and Brazil, Mexico and the
United States of America in the Americas.

Projection of future fish demand


The estimated future per capita fish demand discussed in section 3.2 and the
United Nations population project just discussed are combined to estimate countries’
future demand for the five basic species groups. The basic results are aggregated into

20
Unless specified otherwise, United Nations population projections used in this paper are the medium-
fertility-variant projections.
26 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

FIGURE 18
Per capita fish demand at the regional and global levels – mid-2010s versus the early 2020s

Source: Authors’ estimation.


Estimating future fish demand 27

FIGURE 18 (CONT’D)
Per capita fish demand at the regional and global levels – mid-2010s versus the early 2020s

Source: Authors’ estimation.


28 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

FIGURE 18 (CONT’D)
Per capita fish demand at the regional and global levels – mid-2010s versus the early 2020s

Source: Authors’ estimation.


FIGURE 19
Per capita fish demand growth from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Estimating future fish demand

Source: Authors’ estimation.


29

Image source: @2017 Google.


30 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

FIGURE 20
Population growth at the regional and global levels from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
(thousand people)

Source: Author’s estimation based on the United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (POP/DB/WPP/Rev.2015/POP/F01-1).

regional and global projections21 for the five basic species groups as well as the four
aggregated groups.

The results indicate that given constant fish prices and consumer preference, income
and population growth is expected to increase world fish demand by 47 million tonnes
in the early 2020s compared with the mid-2010s. Most of the growth is due to come
from Asia, particularly China, which would account for over half of the growth
(Figure 22). South-eastern Asia and South Asia would account for 18 and 10 percent of
the growth, respectively. The share of Africa is 7 percent, whereas that of Latin America
and the Caribbean is 2 percent. The share of Europe, Northern America, and Oceania
are 5 percent, 3 percent and less than 0.5 percent, respectively.

The 47 million tonnes fish demand growth is composed of 57 percent finfish


(24  and 33  percent for marine fish, and freshwater & diadromous fish, respectively)
and 43  percent shellfish (15, 24 and 4 percent for crustaceans, shell molluscs and

21
For a country with data on its per capita fish consumption in the baseline year but no data on its expected
future per capita GDP, its future per capita fish demand cannot be estimated from equation (2); hence, its
future fish demand would not be estimated. However, since the country is included in the aggregation of
country-level results into regional or global fish demand in the baseline year, it should also be included
in the regional or global aggregation for future fish demand. To facilitate this, the country’s future fish
demand is estimated by multiplying its per capita fish consumption in the baseline year by its expected
population in the future; or if there is no data on the country’s expected future population, its fish
consumption in the baseline year would be used to represent its future fish demand.
FIGURE 21
Population growth at the country level from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Estimating future fish demand

Source: Authors’ estimation based on the United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (POP/DB/WPP/Rev.2015/POP/F01-1).
31

Image source: @2017 Google.


32 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

FIGURE 22
Regional distribution of expected fish demand growth from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s

Latin America and the Caribbean, 1.0, 2%


Oceania, 0.2, 0%
Northern America, 1.5, 3%
Europe, 2.2, 5%
Africa, 3.2, 7%

Central & West Asia,


0.4, 1% Fish demand
growth: 47 mt

China, 24.4, 51%


South Asia, 4.7, 10%

South-eastern Asia, 8.3, 18%


Other Eastern Asia, 1.6, 3%

Source: Author’s estimation.


Note: mt = million tonnes.

FIGURE 23
Species composition of fish demand growth from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s

Cephalopods, 1.8, 4%

Marine fish, 11.2, 24%


Shell molluscs, 11.4, 24%

%
43
0.4,
,2
ish
ellf Fish demand
Sh
growth: 47 mt

%
57
7.0,
h ,2
fis
Fin

Crustaceans, 7.2, 15% Freshwater & diadromous fish,


15.8, 33%

Source: Author’s estimation.


Note: mt = million tonnes.
Estimating future fish demand 33

cephalopods, respectively) (Figure 23). As indicated in Figure 8, shellfish accounted for


only a quarter of world fish consumption in the mid-2010s. Yet it would account for
nearly half of the world fish demand growth from the mid-2010s to early 2020s because
of the higher income elasticity for shellfish species than for finfish species.

In the majority of the countries, fish demand growth during the period from the mid-
2010s to the early 2020s would be less than 100 000 tonnes. In many countries, the growth
would be less than 10 000 tonnes. Countries with fish demand growth during the period
between 1 million and 3 million tonnes include India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Viet Nam,
Bangladesh and the Philippines in Asia and the United States of America. Countries
with growth between 500 000 to 1 million tonnes include the Republic of Korea, Japan
and Malaysia in Asia and Nigeria and Egypt in Africa (Figure 24).
34

FIGURE 24
Fish demand growth at the country level from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s

Source: Authors’ estimation.


Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Image source: @2017 Google.


35

4. Estimating future fish demand-


supply gaps

The analysis in the previous section shows that if fish prices and consumer preference
remain the same, the larger and wealthier world populations would demand 47 million
tonnes more fish in the early 2020s compared with the mid-2010s. The analysis in this
section will examine whether the trend aquaculture growth (i.e. aquaculture production
in each country growing according to its recent trend) can generate enough fish supply
to satisfy the demand growth. Potential fish demand-supply gaps as well as aquaculture
growth needed to cover the gaps are measured for five basic species groups and the four
aggregate species groups at the national, regional and global levels.

World capture fisheries production has been flat since the 1990s and is expected to
remain that way because of resources and regulations constraints. Thus, the impact of
capture fisheries on fish supply is not considered in the analysis here, which essentially
assumes that capture fisheries production in the early 2020s would be at the same level
as the mid-2010s.

4.1 SHORT-TERM PROJECTION OF AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION


Price and productivity are two primary factors driving the growth of aquaculture
production (Kumar and Engle, 2016). The lack of data on the prices of inputs (feed,
seed, labour, etc.) makes it difficult to estimate a farmed fish production function for
each country. Thus, trend analysis is used as a simplified way to project a country’s
potential aquaculture production in the future.

A country’s aquaculture production from 2015 to 2021 is projected by its recent five-
year (i.e. 2009–201422) linear trend. The average production projection in 2015 and 2016
is used to represent the benchmark aquaculture production for the mid-2010s, whereas
the projection in 2020 and 2021 represents the expected future production for the early
2020s.

For some cases of a downward trend leading to an unreasonably low or even a negative
production projection, the average production during 2012–2014 or during 1980–2014,
whichever is smaller, is used as the lower bound of the production projection.

The projection of aquaculture production is first conducted for the five basic species
groups at the country level; the results are then aggregated into regional and global
results and/or for the four aggregate species groups.

The results indicate that if aquaculture production23 in every country follows its recent
trend, world aquaculture production would increase by 19 million tonnes in the early
2020s compared with the mid-2010s; three-quarters of the growth would be in finfish
species and one-quarter in shellfish species (Figure 25). Freshwater & diadromous fish

At the time of this analysis, 2014 is the latest year for FAO data on global aquaculture production; see
22

the data source in footnote 15.


In this paper aquaculture production means farmed fish production, including finfish and shellfish
23

species but not aquatic animals or aquatic plants.


36 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

would account for 72 percent of the growth; the share of marine fish would be only
3 percent. The share of crustaceans and shell molluscs would be 10 and 15 percent,
respectively, and the share of cephalopods would be zero because at the time of this
analysis there is no substantial cephalopod aquaculture (Figure 25).

China, which accounts for 61 percent of world aquaculture production in the mid-
2010s, would account for 56 percent of the 19-million-tonne growth. South-eastern and
South Asia also have a significant contribution (19 and 12 percent, respectively). The
share of the Americas, Africa and Europe is 5, 4 and 3 percent, respectively (Figure 26).

FIGURE 25
Species composition of trend aquaculture production growth from the
mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Marine fish, 0.5, 3%
Shell molluscs, 2.8, 15%

%
25
8,
4,

Crustaceans, 1.9, 10%


h,
fis

Aquaculture
ell

Freshwater &
Sh

production
diadromous fish,
%

growth:19 mt
75

13.8, 72%
3,
4.
,1
ish
nf
Fi

Source: Authors’ estimation.


Note: mt = million tonnes.

FIGURE 26
Regional distribution of trend aquaculture production growth from the
mid-2010s to the early 2020s

Africa, 0.7, 4% Europe, 0.5, 3%


Americas, 1.0, 5%
Rest of world, 0.2, 1%

South Asia, 2.3, 12%

Aquaculture
production
growth: 19 mt

China, 10.7, 56%

South-eastern Asia, 3.7, 19%

Source: Author’s estimation.


Note: mt = million tonnes.
Estimating future fish demand-supply gaps 37

Besides China, other countries that have a relatively large trend growth in aquaculture
production (more than 100  000 tonnes) include Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Iran,
Myanmar and Viet Nam in Asia; Brazil, Chile and Ecuador in the Americas; Egypt
and Nigeria in Africa; and Norway in Europe. The trend growth in most of the other
countries is less than 10 000 tonnes. In some countries, the trend growth is negative,
such as Canada, Greece, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea and Thailand (Figure 27).

4.2 DEMAND-SUPPLY GAPS IN THE EARLY 2020s


A country’s fish demand-supply gap in the early 2020s is measured by its fish
demand growth (driven by population and income growth) minus its trend growth in
aquaculture production. A positive demand-supply gap indicates excess demand, i.e.
the extra fish supply generated by the trend aquaculture growth is insufficient to cover
the extra fish demand due to population and income growth, whereas a negative gap
indicates excess supply.

Alternatively, a demand-supply gap can also be measured by the ratio between the
supply growth and the demand growth. A ratio greater than one indicates excess supply,
and a ratio smaller than one indicates excess demand and measures the percentage of
the demand growth that can be covered by the supply growth.

A country or region’s fish demand-supply gap can be narrowed through changes in


production (i.e. increased domestic fish production through aquaculture or capture
fisheries), trade (i.e. increased fish imports or reduced fish exports), and/or fish prices
(i.e. fish demand reduced by higher fish prices). For the entire world, only production
and price variations could affect the fish demand-supply gap, whereas the trade balance
of the entire world would always be at zero.

Demand-supply gaps for fish as a whole


The 19 million tonnes of extra world fish supply generated by the trend aquaculture
growth would only be able to cover 40 percent of the 47 million tonnes of extra fish
demand driven by population and income growth, leading to a 28-million-tonne
demand-supply gap in the early 2020s. Shellfish would account for 55 percent of the
gap (18, 30 and 7 percent for crustaceans, shell molluscs and cephalopods, respectively);
the share for finfish would be 45  percent (38 and 7 percent for marine fish, and
freshwater & diadromous fish, respectively) (Figure 28).

China would account for nearly half of the 28-million-tonne demand-supply gap.
South-eastern Asia, South Asia and Africa would also have significant gaps (Figure 29).
South America and Northern Europe are the only two subregions that have negative
gaps, indicating excess fish supply (Table A in the appendix).

The trend aquaculture growth in 170 countries would not be able to generate enough
fish to satisfy their fish demand growth (i.e. positive demand-supply gap); surplus (i.e.
a negative demand-supply gap) is expected to occur in only 17 countries (Figure 30).
The trend aquaculture growth in nearly 120 countries would cover less than 5 percent
of their expected fish demand growth (Table A in the appendix).

In the majority of the countries, the fish demand-supply gap would be less than 100 000
tonnes. In many countries, the gap would be less than 10 000 tonnes. Countries with
relatively large fish demand-supply gaps (greater than 500 000 tonnes) in the early 2020s
include, in descending order of their demand-supply gaps, China, India, Myanmar, the
United States of America, the Philippines, Viet  Nam, the Republic  of  Korea, Japan,
Bangladesh and Malaysia (Figure 30).
38

FIGURE 27
Trend aquaculture production growth from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s

Source: Authors’ estimation.


Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Image source: @2017 Google.


Estimating future fish demand-supply gaps 39

FIGURE 28
Species composition of world fish demand-supply gap in the early 2020s

Cephalopods, 1.8, 7%

Marine fish, 10.7, 38%


Shell molluscs, 8.6, 30%

%
, 55
.7
Fish
15

%
sh
, demand-

45
lfi

supply gap:
el

7,
Sh

2.
28 mt

h,1
fis
n
Fi

Freshwater & diadromous fish, 2.0, 7%


Crustaceans, 5.2, 18%

Source: Authors’ estimation.


Note: mt = million tonnes.

FIGURE 29
Geographic distribution of world fish demand-supply gap in the early 2020s

Rest of world, 2.01, 7%


Americas, 1.40, 5%

Europe, 1.65, 6% China 13.69, 48%

Africa, 2.53, 9%
Fish
demand-
supply gap:
28 mt

South Asia, 2.38, 8%

South-eastern Asia, 4.65, 17%

Source: Author’s estimation.


Note: mt = million tonnes.

World aquaculture production is set to grow 4.5 percent annually from the mid-2010s
to the early 2020s if aquaculture in every country follows its recent trend. This trend
growth rate would not generate enough fish to satisfy the demand growth driven by
income and population growth. Indeed, world aquaculture production would need
to grow 9.9 percent per year during the period in order to generate enough fish to
satisfy the expected demand growth. While the trend aquaculture growth would exceed
10 percent per year in less than 20 countries, aquaculture growth in over 130 countries
needs to exceed 10 percent in order to generate enough fish to satisfy the demand
growth (Table A in the appendix).
40

FIGURE 30
Fish demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s

Source: Authors’ estimation.


Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Image source: @2017 Google.


Estimating future fish demand-supply gaps 41

Demand-supply gaps for marine fish


The trend growth in world marine finfish aquaculture would generate 550 000 tonnes
of extra marine fish in the early 2020s compared with the mid-2010s. The supply
growth would cover less than 5 percent of the 11.2 million tonnes extra demand for
marine fish driven by income and population growth, leaving a 10.7-million-tonne
demand-supply gap.

The trend growth in marine finfish aquaculture in 181 countries (including those with
no marine finfish aquaculture at the time of this analysis) would be unable to generate
enough marine fish to satisfy their demand growth; surplus is expected to occur in only
four countries (i.e. Cyprus, Malta, Taiwan Province of China and Timor-Leste24) (Table
A). Countries with a relatively large marine fish demand-supply gap (greater than
100 000 tonnes) include, in descending order within the respective regions, Indonesia,
China, Myanmar, the Philippines, India, Malaysia, Viet Nam, the Republic of Korea,
Japan, Thailand and Sri Lanka in Asia; Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal
and Morocco in Africa; the United States of America and Mexico in the Americas; and
the Russian Federation, Spain, France and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland in Europe (Figure 31).

The trend growth in marine finfish aquaculture in only 23 countries would cover more
than  1  percent of their expected marine fish demand growth. World marine finfish
aquaculture production would need to grow over 40 percent annually from the mid-
2010s to the early 2020s in order to satisfy the demand growth. The needed growth rate
is much higher than the trend growth rate (less than 4 percent) (Table A in the appendix).

Demand-supply gaps for freshwater & diadromous fish


The world trend growth in freshwater & diadromous finfish aquaculture would
generate 13.8  million tonnes of supply growth, which can cover 87 percent of the
15.8  million tonnes of demand growth driven by income and population growth,
leaving a 2-million-tonne demand-supply gap.

The trend growth in freshwater & diadromous finfish aquaculture in 150 countries
would not be sufficient to satisfy their demand growth; surplus is expected to occur
in 34 countries (Figure 32). Countries with relatively large freshwater & diadromous
fish demand-supply gaps (greater than 100  000 tonnes) include, in descending order
within the respective regions, China, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, the Philippines and
Thailand in Asia; the United States of America in the Americas; and Uganda in Africa.

The trend growth in freshwater & diadromous finfish aquaculture in only 67 countries
would cover more than 25 percent of their expected freshwater & diadromous fish
demand growth (49 countries more than 50 percent). The world trend growth in
freshwater & diadromous finfish aquaculture production is 4.9 percent per year from
the mid-2010s to the early 2020s, slightly lower than the 5.5 percent growth needed to
satisfy the expected demand growth. Unlike marine fish for which the demand-supply
gap is positive for all subregions, the freshwater & diadromous fish demand-supply gap
is negative (indicating excess supply) in Northern Africa, Central Asia, South-eastern
Asia, Northern Europe, Central America and South America (Table A in the appendix).

24
The trend growth in marine finfish aquaculture in Timor-Leste from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
is expected to be zero (Table A), but the expected growth in the country’s demand for marine fish is
negative because of its negative expected growth in per capita GDP (PPP adjusted) (Figure 19).
42

FIGURE 31
Marine fish demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s

Source: Authors’ estimation.


Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Image source: @2017 Google.


FIGURE 32
Freshwater & diadromous fish demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s
Estimating future fish demand-supply gaps

Source: Authors’ estimation.


43

Image source: @2017 Google.


44 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Demand-supply gaps for crustaceans


The world trend growth in crustacean aquaculture production would generate
1.95 million tonnes of supply growth, which can cover 27 percent of the 7.16 million
tonnes of demand growth driven by income and population growth, leaving a
5.2-million-tonne demand-supply gap.

The trend growth in crustacean aquaculture production in 171 countries would not be
sufficient to satisfy their demand growth; a surplus is expected to occur in 11 countries.
China alone accounts for nearly two-thirds of the world crustacean demand-supply
gap. Other countries with relatively large crustacean demand-supply gaps (more than
10 000 tonnes) include, in descending order within the respective regions, Viet Nam,
Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, India, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea,
Thailand, Taiwan Province of China, China, Hong Kong SAR, and Singapore in Asia;
the United States of America, Mexico, Canada, Brazil and Chile in the Americas; and
the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, France, Spain, Italy,
Sweden, the Russian Federation, Norway and Germany in Europe; and Australia in
Oceania (Figure 33).

The trend growth in crustacean aquaculture production in only 27 countries would


cover more than 5 percent of their expected crustacean demand growth. World
crustacean aquaculture production would need to grow 14.5 percent annually from
the mid-2010s to the early 2020s in order to satisfy the demand growth. The needed
growth rate is much higher than the 4.8 percent trend growth. South America is the
only subregion whose trend growth in crustacean aquaculture production would be
enough to cover the demand growth (Table A in the appendix).

Demand-supply gaps for shell molluscs


The world trend growth in shell molluscs aquaculture production would generate
2.8 million tonnes of supply growth, which would be able to cover only 25 percent of
the 11.4 million tonnes of demand growth driven by income and population growth,
leaving an 8.6-million-tonne demand-supply gap.

The trend growth in shell molluscs aquaculture production in 157 countries would not be
sufficient to satisfy their demand growth; surplus is expected to occur in eight countries.
China alone accounts for nearly 90 percent of the world shell molluscs demand-supply
gap. Other countries with relatively large shell molluscs demand-supply gaps (more than
10 000 tonnes) include, in descending order within the respective region, the Republic
of Korea, Japan, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan Province of China, China,
Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and India in Asia; the United States of
America, Canada and Mexico in the Americas; France, Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom
of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Ukraine and the Russian Federation in Europe;
and Australia in Oceania. The demand-supply gap is less than 10 000 tonnes for the
majority of the countries and negative in a few countries (Figure 34).

The trend growth in shell molluscs aquaculture production in only 24 countries would
cover more than 5 percent of their expected shell molluscs demand growth. The world
shell molluscs aquaculture production would need to grow 10.9 percent annually from
the mid-2010s to the early 2020s in order to satisfy the demand growth. The needed
growth rate is much higher than the 3.1 percent trend growth. South America is the
only subregion whose trend growth in shell molluscs aquaculture production would
be enough to cover the demand growth (Table A in the appendix).
FIGURE 33
Crustacean demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s
Estimating future fish demand-supply gaps

Source: Authors’ estimation.


45

Image source: @2017 Google.


46

FIGURE 34
Shell molluscs demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s

Source: Authors’ estimation.


Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Image source: @2017 Google.


Estimating future fish demand-supply gaps 47

Demand-supply gaps for cephalopods


Income and population growth is expected to drive the world demand for cephalopods
up by 1.8 million tonnes in the early 2020s compared with the mid-2010s. Yet with no
substantial cephalopod aquaculture production at the time of this analysis, the trend
growth in cephalopod aquaculture production would generate no extra supply, leaving
a demand-supply gap of 1.8 million tonnes.

Cephalopod accounted for a tiny share (less than 3 percent) of world fish consumption
in the mid-2010s (Figure 8). The consumption of cephalopods in many countries is
either very low or virtually non-existent. Thus, the cephalopod demand-supply gap in
the early 2020s would be greater than 10 000 tonnes in only 18 countries. China alone
would account for over 40 percent of the 1.8-million-tonne world demand-supply gap
in cephalopods. Other countries with relatively large cephalopod demand-supply gaps
include, in the descending order within the respective regions, Viet Nam, the Republic
of Korea, Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan Province
of China in Asia; the United States of America, Argentina, Mexico and Peru in the
Americas; Spain, Italy, the Russian Federation and Greece in Europe; and Australia in
Oceania (Figure 35).

4.3 MORE CONSERVATIVE PROJECTION OF DEMAND GROWTH


The standard projection of the demand growth in the above analysis is based on mean
income elasticity coefficients and the medium-fertility-variant population projection.
This section examines a more conservative projection based on the lower bound of the
95 percent confidence interval of the estimated income elasticity coefficients (Table 3)
and the low-fertility-variant population projection provided by the United Nations.

Detailed comparisons of the standard and conservative projections at the country,


regional and global levels for all the nine species groups are presented in the appendix
(Table A). Some important patterns are presented below.

Fish as a whole
The lower-fertility-variant projection of the world population in the early 2020s would
be 1  percent lower than the medium-fertility-variant projection. The conservative
estimation of world per capita fish demand under the lower bound income elasticity
would be 8 percent less than the standard one (22.8 kg/year and 24.7 kg/year,
respectively). Thus, the conservative projection of world fish demand would be nearly
10 percent and 17 million tonnes lower than the standard one (Table 4).

The trend growth in world aquaculture production would still be insufficient to


fully cover the conservative demand growth (covering only 62 percent). Yet the gap
(12 million tonnes) is much less than the standard projection (28 million tonnes), and
the needed growth rate is also lower (6.9 percent versus 9.9 percent) (Table 4).

The conservative projection of China’s fish demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
would be 5 million tonnes. This would still be the world’s largest, yet much smaller
than the gap under the standard projection (14 million tonnes). Indonesia’s trend
aquaculture growth would be nearly 180  000 tonnes less than the demand growth
under the standard projection, yet over 800  000 tonnes more than that under the
conservative one. Brazil, Bangladesh and Egypt are also among the seven countries that
would have a positive demand-supply gap under the standard projection and negative
gap under the conservative one (Table A in the appendix).
48

FIGURE 35
Cephalopod demand-supply gaps in the early 2020s

Source: Authors’ estimation.


Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Image source: @2017 Google.


Estimating future fish demand-supply gaps 49

Marine fish
The conservative projection of world marine fish demand in the early 2020s would
be 60 million tonnes, which is 4 million tonnes less than the standard projection. The
demand growth under the conservative projection would still be greater than the trend
growth in world marine fish aquaculture production, leaving a 6.7-million-tonne
demand-supply gap, which would need 31 percent annual growth of world marine
aquaculture production to fill (Table 4). Turkey is the only country that would have
excess demand under the standard projection, yet excess supply under the conservative
one (Table A in the appendix).

Freshwater & diadromous fish


While the trend growth in world freshwater & diadromous fish aquaculture would
be 2  million tonnes short of the demand growth under the standard projection, it
would nevertheless be 5 million tonnes greater under the conservative projection
(Table 4). Similarly, China would have 2.3 million tonnes of excess demand under the
standard projection, yet 1.2 million tonnes of excess supply under the conservative one.
Trend growth in freshwater & diadromous fish aquaculture in 34 countries would be
sufficient to cover their demand growth under the standard projection; the number is
increased to 50 under the conservative projection (Table A in the appendix).

Shellfish species groups


For all three basic shellfish species groups (crustaceans, shell molluscs and cephalopods),
world trend aquaculture growth would still not be enough to cover the demand growth
under the conservative projection (Table 4). One major exception at the national level
is India, which would have 88 000 tonnes of excess demand for crustaceans under the
standard projection and 27 000 tonnes of excess supply under the conservative one
(Table A in the appendix).
TABLE 4
50

Demand-supply gaps: standard versus conservative projections

Total demand Demand-supply gap Ratio of supply growth to Annual aquaculture growth
Per capita demand (kg/year) Trend
(million tonnes) (million tonnes) demand growth (%) rate needed (%)
aquaculture
Species
growth rate
Standard1 Conservative2 Standard1 Conservative2 Standard1 Conservative2 Standard1 Conservative2 Standard1 Conservative2 (%)

Fish 24.68 22.76 190.44 173.87 28.32 11.82 40.29 61.79 9.91 6.87 4.45
Finfish 17.31 16.08 134.55 123.65 12.67 1.82 53.11 88.76 8.42 5.36 4.81
Marine fish 8.26 7.82 64.00 59.97 10.67 6.67 4.87 7.58 40.28 30.94 3.99
F&D fish 9.05 8.25 70.55 63.68 1.99 - 4.85 87.38 154.18 5.48 3.25 4.85
Shellfish 7.37 6.69 55.89 50.22 15.65 10.00 23.33 32.26 12.97 9.96 3.64
Crustaceans 2.69 2.46 20.59 18.67 5.22 3.30 27.19 37.09 14.46 11.29 4.77
Molluscs 4.68 4.23 35.30 31.54 10.44 6.70 21.24 29.59 12.29 9.35 3.13
Shell molluscs 3.95 3.56 29.88 26.61 8.61 5.36 24.63 34.43 10.89 8.22 3.13
Cephalopods
0.72 0.67 5.42 4.93 1.82 1.34 1 393.75 1 303.86

Source: Authors’ estimation.


Notes: Cells with zero or no value are left blank. 1Standard projections are based on mean income elasticity coefficients and medium-fertility-variant population projections. 2Conservative projections are based on the lower bound of the 95 percent
interval of income elasticity coefficients and low-fertility-variant population projections.
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
51

5. Discussion

A short-term projection model is developed to assess and monitor potential


future fish demand and supply at the country, regional and global levels for
nine species groups at different aggregate levels. The results indicate that:

• Given that fish prices and consumer preference remain the same, income growth
would drive world per capita fish demand up from 20 kg/year in the mid-2010s
to 25 kg/year in the early 2020s (or 23 kg/year under the conservative projection).
• The income-driven per capita fish demand hike, combined with population
growth, would drive world fish demand up by 47 million tonnes (or 31 million
tonnes under the conservative projection).
• The 19-million-tonne fish supply growth generated by the trend growth of world
aquaculture production would cover only 40 percent of the projected demand
growth (or 60  percent of the conservative projection), leaving a fish demand-
supply gap of 28  million tonnes (or 16 million tonnes under the conservative
projection) in the early 2020s.
• The demand-supply gap for shellfish would be larger than that for finfish – they
would account for 55 and 45 percent, respectively, of the 28-million-tonne fish
demand-supply gap.
• While world aquaculture production following its recent trend would grow
4.5  percent annually from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s, it would take
9.9 percent annual growth (or 6.9 percent under the conservative projection) to
fill the world fish demand-supply gap in the early 2020s.
• The trend aquaculture growth in only 17 countries (or 24 countries under
the conservative projection) would be sufficient to cover the demand growth
driven by population and income growth; excess demand is expected to occur in
170 countries (or 163 countries under the conservative projection).
• Should world aquaculture fall short of the required annual growth rate (i.e.
9.9 percent under the standard projection or 6.9 percent under the conservative
one), and should world capture fisheries production remain the status quo, the
world fish price would tend to increase to reduce fish demand to the extent that
world fish demand and supply are balanced (i.e. no demand-supply gap).

Detailed results of the demand-supply gap analysis at the country, regional and global
levels for the nine species are presented in the appendix (Table A).

The results of the demand-supply gap analysis are useful to decision-makers in both
the public and private sectors. Knowledge and understanding of potential future fish
demand as well as demand-supply gaps could facilitate the establishment of evidence-
based regulations, policies and development strategies and plans, help development
agencies or donors set targets and allocate resources, assist fish farmers in business
planning, and guide investors in investment planning. But clear understanding of the
results, including their merits and constraints, is essential to properly and flexibly using
them to facilitate evidence-based decision-making.

Not consumption forecasting, but demand projection


First and foremost, it should be noted that similar to Ye (1999), the study here is not
to forecast fish consumption in the future but to project potential fish demand under
52 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

certain conditions. The study does not predict that world per capita fish consumption
will most likely reach 25 kg/year in the early 2020s. Rather, it means that “given that
fish prices and consumer preferences remain the same”, income growth could drive
world per capita fish demand up to that level.

Since it appears that the trend aquaculture growth could cover only 40 percent of the
projected world fish demand growth while capture fisheries production is expected
to have little growth, the resulting excess demand would tend to drive up fish prices,
which would reduce the demand growth. Therefore, per capita fish consumption
(as realized fish demand) in the early 2020s would likely be less than 25 kg/year if
global aquaculture follows its recent trend. However, the 25 kg/year per capita fish
consumption could be sustained if productivity gains, increases in the utilization of
aquaculture resources, policy interventions and other factors can accelerate world
aquaculture growth from the 4.5 percent trend growth to 9.9 percent a year.

Complement to other projection models


Three major projection models on fish supply and demand – IFPRI Fish to 2020
(Delgado et al., 2003), the OECD-FAO Fish Model (OECD-FAO, 2011–2016; Lem,
Bjørndal and Lappo, 2014) and the World Bank-IFPRI-FAO Fish to 2030 (World
Bank, 2013; Kobayashi et al., 2015) – use sophisticated models to predict likely
scenarios of fish production, trade, consumption and price in the medium or long term.
There are no demand-supply gaps in these models where fish price as an endogenous
variable would balance fish demand and supply.

The short-term projection model in this study does not try to balance fish demand and
supply. It treats fish price as an exogenous variable to estimate fish demand growth
driven by population and income growth and compares the demand growth to trend
aquaculture growth to assess potential demand-supply gaps.

Examining demand and supply separately is a common practice in projection exercises.


The “Fish to 2020” (Delgado et al., 2003) uses two chapters to examine the historical
trends of fish supply and demand (chapters 2 and 3, respectively) before examining
the projections to 2020 in chapter 4. Lem, Bjørndal and Lappo (2014) also spend
much effort to examine food (especially fish) demand and supply trends and the
factors affecting them before using the OECD-FAO Fish Model to examine different
projection scenarios.

The analysis here also examines fish demand and supply separately, yet moves a step
further to project future fish demand and supply separately under certain conditions
(i.e. fish price and consumer preference remaining unchanged for the demand-side
analysis and trend aquaculture growth for the supply-side analysis). This approach
not only allows more detailed assessment and monitoring of future fish demand – this
point would be discussed later – but also could help enhance understanding of the
results of more complex models.

For example, in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012–2021 (OECD-FAO,


2012), the OECD-FAO Fish Model projects that per capita fish consumption in
Africa would decline in 2021 compared with the 2009–2011 average due to “population
growing faster than supply”. This interpretation from a supply-side perspective does
not explain why people in Africa with a higher per capita income would consume less
fish. A separate examination of fish demand and supply as well as potential demand-
supply gaps would help to understand the outcomes after demand and supply are
balanced by price adjustments.
Discussion 53

It should be noted that the results of the demand analysis in this study may not be
directly comparable to the results of demand analysis in other models because of the
differences in model set-up or parameters used.

Self-estimated income elasticity coefficients


The lack of fish demand elasticities once prevented fish from being included in a global
food projection system (Rosegrant, Sombilla and Perez, 1995). Most models on fish
projection, including the three models mentioned above, “borrow” elasticity parameters
from the literature. Many fish demand elasticities in the literature are provided by fish
demand analyses that do not (at least not directly) aim at projecting future fish demand
(Asche and Bjørndal, 1999; Asche, Bjørndal and Gordon, 2007; Dey 2000). Estimated
demand elasticity coefficients tend to vary because of different methodologies or data
used. For example, the income elasticities estimated by Muhammad et al. (2013) based
on data in 2005 are quite different than those estimated by Seale, Regmi and Bernstein
(2003) based on data in 1996, even though the two studies use the same methodology.
The income elasticities of fish demand for 144 countries estimated by Muhammad
et al. (2013) are widely used in various projection models, but the study provides only
elasticity coefficients for fish as a whole.

While demand analysis based on household data uses various consumption models to
estimate demand elasticity parameters,25 a few studies (e.g. Ye, 1999) use country-level
data to estimate fish demand elasticities through single-equation linear regressions
of per capita fish consumption on income and price variables. As such regressions
usually entail substantial time-series data in order to discern statistically significant
patterns, countries with insufficient data have to be aggregated into country groups for
estimation. Aggregating countries into groups, albeit a common practice in forecasting
future fish demand, tends to result in a vast amount of information loss and hence
should always be considered as the last resort.

Even for a country with enough data, single-equation regressions do not always give
sensible results because of poor data quality or because the country’s own historical
consumption pattern does not provide adequate information for extrapolating its
future fish demand. Ad hoc adjustments on model specification (e.g. adding a trend
variable) are sometimes used to avoid insensible projections (Ye, 1999), but doing so
would undermine the uniformity of the estimation model.

Similar to Ye (1999), the study here estimates countries’ income elasticities based on
their historical consumption, income and price trends. However, instead of using single-
equation regressions to estimate individual countries’ income elasticity separately, a
panel model is used in the study here to pool all countries’ historical trends together
to conduct a single estimation for each of the five basic species groups. Extrapolations
under this model would thus be based not only on comparing individual countries’
own fish consumption and income patterns over time, but also on comparing the
patterns across countries. As such, even countries with just a few data points can be
included in the analysis as a distinctive country rather than being an unidentifiable
part of a country group. Another merit of the panel model is to improve the reliability
of extrapolation by pooling individual countries’ data together and hence providing a
wide income range from countries at different income levels (Hsiao, 2007).

Common methods used in fish demand analysis include single equation (reduced-form) demand function
25

estimation, the Rotterdam System, the Almost Ideal Demand System, the multistage budgeting framework,
among others (Asche, Bjørndal and Gordon, 2007; Dey et al., 2008; Seale, Regmi and Bernstein, 2003).
54 Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

The panel model helps self-generate income elasticities of demand for the five
disaggregate species groups based on up to nearly 190 countries’ recent trends of
fish consumption, fish prices and incomes (Table 2). While there is still room for
improvement in model specification and other aspects, the panel model approach
represents a potentially better way to obtain demand elasticities than borrowing from
the literature, both in terms of availability and quality.

It is important to note that the income elasticity coefficients estimated in this study
(Table 3) are specific for short-term projections from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s.
It may not be appropriate to borrow them for other projections, especially not for
longer-term projections.

Global perspective with country focus


Most projection work on fish demand and supply, including IFPRI Fish to 2020,
OECD-FAO Fish Model and World Bank-IFPRI-FAO Fish to 2030, are regional or
globally oriented in the sense that: (i) only a limited number of countries are modelled
explicitly while others are grouped into regions; and (ii) only regional and global
results as well as the results for a few countries are reported.

While many regional and global results are presented in previous sections, the ultimate
goal of this study is to facilitate evidence-based decision-making at the country level.
Data availability allows 187 countries or territories to be included in the projection
model. All of them enter the model as a distinct country or territory; the regional
and global results are aggregated from country results. The key results of all the 187
countries are presented in the appendix (Table A).

Similarly, the model analyses the five basic species groups, which are the most
disaggregate consumption data available at the time of the analysis. The basic results
are then aggregated into more aggregated species groups.

Areas to improve
Data used in the projection model include FAO data on fish consumption, aquaculture
production and fish trade, IMF data on per capita GDP, and United Nations data on
population. Improvement of the timeliness and quality of these official statistics would
increase the accuracy of the projection.

While data on population and per capita GDP are available for the baseline period
(the 2015 and 2016 average), fish consumption in 2013 (the latest year with global fish
consumption data available at the time of this analysis) has to be used to represent
the baseline per capita fish consumption. Improvement in the timeliness of fish
consumption data would help solve this inconsistency.

There is an ongoing effort to separate freshwater fish and diadromous fish into two
separate species groups in FAO’s fish consumption data. This would help increase
the accuracy of the fish demand-supply gap analysis and provide more detailed
information.

Fish price, which is a key variable in the demand analysis, is constructed from the
prices of farmed fish and imported fish, with that of captured fish not accounted for
because of the lack of data. The price proxies constructed as such are helpful to improve
the accuracy of estimated income elasticity coefficients. However, even though the
estimated price elasticity coefficients are of the expected sign and statistically significant
at 95 percent for all the five basic species groups, they cannot be used to estimate the
Discussion 55

impact of a change in fish price on fish demand because of the unsure quality of the
price proxies. As discussed in section 3.1, the quality problem also affects the model
specification. Data on the price of capture fisheries production would help improve
the construct of the price variable. Price indices at the country level would also help.

The panel model uses a parsimonious specification. The prices of substitute goods are
not included, partly because of limited data availability and quality. With improvement
of data availability and quality, the model specification could be improved.

Understand the results properly and use them flexibly


The results presented in the appendix (Table A) may not all be accurate or sensible
because of imperfect data or methodology. Yet the results that seem implausible should
not be dismissed hastily, but should be understood properly, improved accordingly,
and used flexibly.

For example, China’s 14 million tonnes of excess demand in the early 2020s may
appear overestimated to some observers who have experience of market gluts and
harsh competition in China’s low-value, freshwater finfish industry (e.g. tilapia).
However, a deeper look would reveal that over 80 percent of the 14 million tonnes of
excess demand is in shellfish, whereas freshwater & diadromous fish accounts for only
10 percent. Indeed, under the conservative projection, China would have 2.3 million
tonnes of excess supply in freshwater & diadromous fish.

Users may modify the demand projection in equation (2) with more accurate data or
parameters or introduce new driving factors (e.g. changes in consumer preference).
They may modify the supply projection by specifying a different trend horizon,
considering nonlinear trends, or factoring into policy and other factors (e.g. aquaculture
production growth in Chile and Norway tends to be limited by stringent regulations).
A user-friendly tool can be developed to facilitate such flexibility.

The world fish demand-supply gap can be used to measure the potential for aquaculture
growth at the global level since aquaculture is expected to be the main, if not the only,
source of fish supply growth. Yet, besides domestic aquaculture, fish supply in a
country can come from imports. Also, capture fisheries could be a substantial source
of fish supply growth in a specific country although it is not expected so at the global
level. Similarly, the domestic market may not be the only source of demand for a
country’s aquaculture production, not even as a main source for countries with an
export-oriented aquaculture sector.

Therefore, it should be noted that the demand-supply gap analysis here is only a
standardized assessment that may not be suitable for all cases. A positive fish demand-
supply gap should not be viewed, a priori, as a problem to solve but could imply an
opportunity to exploit. For example, a large demand-supply gap in a country with
little comparative advantage in fish production may not be an issue to be solved by
domestic policy, but could represent a potential market opportunity for producers in
other countries. Users may use the information in the tables in the appendix to conduct
tailor-made assessments according to individual specific conditions and needs.
57

References

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Series No. 9. Rome, FAO.

Asche, F., Bjørndal, T. & Gordon, D.V. 2007. Studies in the demand structure for fish
and seafood products. In A. Weintraub, C. Romero, T. Bjørndal & R. Epstein, eds.
Handbook of operations research in natural resources (pp. 295–314). Berlin, Springer.

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supply and demand in changing global markets. WorldFish Center Technical Report No.
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A., Senaratne, A., Khiem, N.T. & Koeshendrajana, S. 2008. Demand for fish in Asia: a
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doi:10.1007/s11749-007-0046-x.

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59

Appendix

NOTES FOR TABLE A

1. Production and consumption are measured in live weight equivalent. Cells


containing zero or no value are left blank. Projections at the country level for
the five basic species groups (i.e. marine fish, freshwater & diadromous fish,
crustaceans, shell molluscs and cephalopods) are directly estimated, whereas those
at the subregional, regional or global level and/or for the four more aggregate
species groups (i.e. fish, finfish, shellfish and molluscs) are derived from aggregation
of the basic results.
2. The baseline situation in the mid-2010s is measured by the two-year average of
2015 and 2016. Each country’s aquaculture production in 2015 or 2016 is projected
from the five-year trend of its production during 2009–2014. Each country’s per
capita consumption in 2015 or 2016 is assumed to be at the level of 2013. Being a
weighted average of per capita consumption in relevant individual countries (with
their population being the respective weights), the per capita consumption of a
subregional, regional or the entire world in 2015 or 2016 may be different from
that in 2013 because countries’ population are different in 2015 or 2016 from 2013.
The baseline total consumption presented here is for standard projection scenarios;
that for conservative projection scenarios is a little different because of the use of
low-fertility-variant population projection in 2016 (see note 4 and 5 below).
3. The projected situation in the early 2020s is measured by the two-year average of
2020 and 2021.
4. Standard projections are based on mean income elasticity coefficients and medium-
fertility-variant population projections.
5. Conservative projections are based on the lower bound of the 95 percent interval
of income elasticity coefficients and low-fertility-variant population projections.
6. The indicator is not applicable if the extra supply is negative. The indicator is set
to 100 percent if the extra demand is negative whereas the extra supply is positive.
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
60

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 78 515.70 19.52 143 015.82 97 624.86 24.68 22.76 190 444.14 173 865.47 19 109.17 4.45 47 428.32 30 927.20 28 319.15 11 818.03 40.29 61.79 9.91 6.87
Finfish 54 209.81 14.60 107 541.02 68 556.89 17.31 16.08 134 554.72 123 646.16 14 347.07 4.81 27 013.70 16 163.87 12 666.62 1 816.80 53.11 88.76 8.42 5.36
Marine fish 2 531.24 7.19 52 781.98 3 078.17 8.26 7.82 64 001.67 59 967.13 546.93 3.99 11 219.70 7 213.33 10 672.77 6 666.40 4.87 7.58 40.28 30.94
F&D fish 51 678.57 7.41 54 759.05 65 478.72 9.05 8.25 70 553.05 63 679.03 13 800.15 4.85 15 794.00 8 950.54 1 993.85 -4 849.61 87.38 154.18 5.48 3.25
World Shellfish 24 305.89 4.92 35 474.79 29 067.97 7.37 6.69 55 889.43 50 219.31 4 762.08 3.64 20 414.64 14 763.33 15 652.55 10 001.24 23.33 32.26 12.97 9.96
Crustaceans 7 425.82 1.85 13 431.66 9 373.20 2.69 2.46 20 594.17 18 674.58 1 947.38 4.77 7 162.52 5 250.06 5 215.13 3 302.68 27.19 37.09 14.46 11.29
Molluscs 16 880.07 3.08 22 043.14 19 694.77 4.68 4.23 35 295.26 31 544.73 2 814.70 3.13 13 252.12 9 513.27 10 437.42 6 698.57 21.24 29.59 12.29 9.35
Shell molluscs 16 880.06 2.57 18 448.53 19 694.76 3.95 3.56 29 876.13 26 614.26 2 814.70 3.13 11 427.60 8 175.54 8 612.90 5 360.84 24.63 34.43 10.89 8.22
Cephalopods 0.00 0.51 3 594.60 0.00 0.72 0.67 5 419.12 4 930.47 1 824.52 1 337.73 1 824.52 1 337.73
Fish 4 479.48 24.76 31 016.55 5 013.30 28.00 27.10 35 475.25 34 033.46 533.82 2.28 4 458.70 3 031.43 3 924.88 2 497.61 11.97 17.61 14.82 10.89
Finfish 3 152.27 17.52 21 941.73 3 678.81 19.13 18.56 24 240.48 23 311.62 526.53 3.14 2 298.74 1 380.23 1 772.21 853.70 22.91 38.15 11.58 7.53
Marine fish 416.12 12.94 16 213.21 411.22 14.17 13.77 17 954.71 17 295.96 - 4.90 - 0.24 1 741.51 1 090.36 1 746.41 1 095.26 38.98 29.34
F&D fish 2 736.15 4.57 5 728.53 3 267.59 4.96 4.79 6 285.76 6 015.66 531.44 3.61 557.24 289.87 25.80 - 241.56 95.37 183.33 3.78 2.03
Developed
Shellfish 1 327.21 7.25 9 074.82 1 334.49 8.87 8.54 11 234.77 10 721.84 7.29 0.11 2 159.96 1 651.20 2 152.67 1 643.91 0.34 0.44 21.31 17.55
regions
Crustaceans 66.01 3.42 4 288.30 74.19 4.21 4.07 5 340.40 5 107.76 8.19 2.37 1 052.10 821.46 1 043.92 813.27 0.78 1.00 76.11 68.16
Molluscs 1 261.20 3.82 4 786.52 1 260.30 4.65 4.47 5 894.37 5 614.09 - 0.90 - 0.01 1 107.85 829.74 1 108.76 830.65 13.44 10.64
Shell molluscs 1 261.20 2.83 3 544.76 1 260.30 3.43 3.30 4 349.49 4 142.41 - 0.90 - 0.01 804.73 599.27 805.63 600.18 10.37 8.09
Cephalopods 0.00 0.99 1 241.76 0.00 1.22 1.17 1 544.89 1 471.68 303.13 230.47 303.13 230.47
Fish 74 036.22 18.43 111 999.26 92 611.56 24.02 21.90 154 968.90 139 832.00 18 575.33 4.58 42 969.63 27 895.76 24 394.30 9 320.43 43.23 66.59 9.59 6.60
Finfish 51 057.54 13.99 85 599.30 64 878.08 16.95 15.58 110 314.24 100 334.54 13 820.54 4.91 24 714.94 14 783.64 10 894.41 963.10 55.92 93.49 8.22 5.22
Marine fish 2 115.12 6.00 36 568.77 2 666.95 7.11 6.66 46 046.96 42 671.16 551.83 4.75 9 478.19 6 122.97 8 926.36 5 571.14 5.82 9.01 40.53 31.25
F&D fish 48 942.42 7.99 49 030.52 62 211.13 9.84 8.93 64 267.28 57 663.37 13 268.71 4.91 15 236.76 8 660.66 1 968.05 -4 608.04 87.08 153.21 5.57 3.31
Developing
Shellfish 22 978.68 4.44 26 399.98 27 733.48 7.07 6.32 44 654.65 39 497.47 4 754.80 3.83 18 254.68 13 112.13 13 499.88 8 357.33 26.05 36.26 12.40 9.45
regions
Crustaceans 7 359.82 1.52 9 143.36 9 299.01 2.38 2.14 15 253.77 13 566.82 1 939.20 4.79 6 110.41 4 428.60 4 171.22 2 489.41 31.74 43.79 12.85 9.88
Molluscs 15 618.87 2.92 17 256.62 18 434.47 4.68 4.17 29 400.88 25 930.65 2 815.60 3.37 12 144.27 8 683.53 9 328.66 5 867.92 23.18 32.42 12.19 9.24
Shell molluscs 15 618.87 2.52 14 903.77 18 434.47 4.06 3.61 25 526.65 22 471.85 2 815.60 3.37 10 622.87 7 576.27 7 807.27 4 760.67 26.51 37.16 10.94 8.23
Cephalopods 0.40 2 352.84 0.62 0.56 3 874.23 3 458.79 1 521.39 1 107.26 1 521.39 1 107.26
Fish 3 783.35 12.37 11 686.70 5 050.25 15.38 14.05 16 283.40 14 719.46 1 266.90 5.95 4 596.70 3 039.65 3 329.80 1 772.75 27.56 41.68 17.24 12.52
Finfish 3 568.17 12.06 11 427.34 4 793.10 14.88 13.61 15 818.61 14 310.93 1 224.93 6.08 4 391.27 2 890.32 3 166.35 1 665.39 27.89 42.38 17.41 12.60
Marine fish 95.22 4.60 4 232.36 128.05 5.65 5.25 5 832.42 5 358.84 32.83 6.10 1 600.06 1 128.81 1 567.23 1 095.98 2.05 2.91 77.87 66.65
F&D fish 3 472.95 7.46 7 194.98 4 665.05 9.23 8.36 9 986.19 8 952.10 1 192.10 6.08 2 791.22 1 761.51 1 599.12 569.41 42.71 67.67 12.52 8.55
Least
developed Shellfish 215.18 0.31 259.36 257.16 0.50 0.44 464.79 408.53 41.98 3.63 205.43 149.33 163.45 107.36 20.43 28.11 14.34 11.12
countries
Crustaceans 211.02 0.26 219.79 250.86 0.42 0.37 401.60 350.91 39.84 3.52 181.81 131.26 141.96 91.42 21.91 30.35 13.23 10.16
Molluscs 4.16 0.05 39.57 6.30 0.08 0.07 63.19 57.61 2.14 8.64 23.62 18.07 21.48 15.93 9.04 11.82 46.19 39.82
Shell molluscs 4.16 0.03 25.36 6.30 0.05 0.04 39.49 36.10 2.14 8.64 14.13 10.75 11.99 8.62 15.12 19.86 34.47 29.09
Cephalopods 0.02 14.21 0.03 0.03 23.70 21.51 9.49 7.32 9.49 7.32
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 49.11 15.04 1 018.10 55.91 17.06 16.67 1 211.63 1 171.69 6.80 2.63 193.53 154.23 186.73 147.43 3.51 4.41 37.64 32.87
Finfish 32.26 12.41 844.24 34.98 13.87 13.58 990.89 959.74 2.72 1.63 146.66 116.05 143.93 113.32 1.86 2.35 40.87 35.68
Marine fish 2.63 11.34 772.47 3.38 12.76 12.49 912.73 883.91 0.75 5.17 140.26 111.94 139.51 111.19 0.54 0.67 122.36 112.75
F&D fish 29.63 1.07 71.77 31.60 1.11 1.09 78.16 75.83 1.97 1.30 6.40 4.10 4.43 2.13 30.80 48.02 3.99 2.63
Small Island
Developing Shellfish 16.85 2.63 173.87 20.93 3.19 3.09 220.74 211.95 4.08 4.43 46.87 38.19 42.79 34.11 8.69 10.67 30.47 26.71
States
Crustaceans 14.82 1.21 82.21 18.89 1.47 1.43 105.00 100.92 4.07 4.97 22.79 18.76 18.72 14.70 17.85 21.68 20.47 17.77
Molluscs 2.03 1.43 91.66 2.04 1.72 1.66 115.74 111.03 0.01 0.07 24.08 19.42 24.07 19.42 0.03 0.04 66.68 60.26
Shell molluscs 2.03 1.20 77.03 2.04 1.44 1.39 96.51 92.71 0.01 0.07 19.47 15.72 19.47 15.71 0.04 0.05 60.34 54.30
Cephalopods 0.22 14.62 0.28 0.27 19.23 18.32 4.61 3.70 4.61 3.70
Fish 404.85 3.90 1 806.32 547.45 4.40 4.23 2 281.56 2 169.18 142.60 6.22 475.23 363.85 332.64 221.26 30.01 39.19 16.80 13.68
Finfish 404.80 3.88 1 799.26 547.38 4.38 4.20 2 272.19 2 160.33 142.59 6.22 472.93 362.06 330.34 219.48 30.15 39.38 16.74 13.63
Marine fish 0.00 0.91 397.37 0.01 1.00 0.97 492.31 471.63 0.01 16.34 94.94 74.48 94.93 74.48 0.01 0.01 621.83 587.63
Landlocked F&D fish 404.79 2.98 1 401.89 547.37 3.37 3.23 1 779.88 1 688.71 142.58 6.22 377.99 287.58 235.41 145.00 37.72 49.58 14.10 11.33
developing
Shellfish 0.06 0.02 7.06 0.07 0.02 0.02 9.37 8.85 0.01 4.27 2.30 1.79 2.29 1.78 0.56 0.72 111.85 101.71
countries
Crustaceans 0.06 0.01 4.37 0.07 0.01 0.01 5.79 5.48 0.01 4.27 1.41 1.11 1.40 1.10 0.91 1.15 92.70 84.12
Molluscs 0.01 2.69 0.01 0.01 3.58 3.37 0.89 0.68 0.89 0.68
Shell molluscs 0.01 2.12 0.01 0.01 2.83 2.66 0.71 0.54 0.71 0.54
Cephalopods 0.00 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.75 0.71 0.18 0.13 0.18 0.13
Fish 1 949.03 9.80 11 666.51 2 630.28 11.08 10.62 14 882.73 14 126.29 681.25 6.18 3 216.22 2 465.99 2 534.97 1 784.75 21.18 27.63 21.52 17.77
Finfish 1 930.48 9.57 11 416.48 2 601.86 10.79 10.35 14 528.68 13 795.99 671.37 6.15 3 112.21 2 385.59 2 440.83 1 714.22 21.57 28.14 21.17 17.46
Marine fish 144.27 5.91 7 019.54 114.01 6.66 6.41 8 928.54 8 516.74 - 30.26 - 4.60 1 909.00 1 500.92 1 939.26 1 531.19 70.08 62.71
F&D fish 1 786.21 3.66 4 396.94 2 487.85 4.13 3.94 5 600.14 5 279.25 701.64 6.85 1 203.21 884.67 501.57 183.04 58.31 79.31 10.85 8.38
Africa Shellfish 18.55 0.23 250.03 28.42 0.29 0.27 354.05 330.29 9.87 8.91 104.01 80.40 94.14 70.52 9.49 12.28 45.89 39.77
Crustaceans 14.77 0.14 158.27 23.78 0.17 0.16 223.57 209.35 9.00 9.99 65.29 51.16 56.29 42.16 13.79 17.60 40.22 34.88
Molluscs 3.77 0.09 91.76 4.64 0.11 0.11 130.48 120.95 0.87 4.23 38.72 29.24 37.85 28.37 2.24 2.97 62.30 54.30
Shell molluscs 3.77 0.05 48.07 4.64 0.06 0.05 66.15 61.49 0.87 4.23 18.08 13.44 17.21 12.58 4.81 6.46 42.08 35.47
Cephalopods 0.04 43.69 0.06 0.05 64.33 59.45 20.65 15.79 20.65 15.79
Fish 1 308.67 13.40 2 997.27 1 717.20 15.36 14.59 3 742.67 3 518.43 408.53 5.58 745.40 522.92 336.87 114.39 54.81 78.13 9.44 6.95
Finfish 1 299.76 12.86 2 897.88 1 700.98 14.65 13.92 3 600.85 3 386.73 401.22 5.53 702.97 490.55 301.75 89.33 57.08 81.79 9.03 6.61
Marine fish 143.18 7.17 1 615.46 112.37 8.06 7.72 1 982.05 1 878.14 - 30.80 - 4.73 366.59 263.63 397.39 294.43 28.91 23.23
F&D fish 1 156.59 5.69 1 282.42 1 588.61 6.59 6.20 1 618.81 1 508.59 432.03 6.55 336.38 226.92 - 95.64 - 205.11 128.43 190.39 5.24 3.65
Northern
Shellfish 8.91 0.54 99.39 16.22 0.71 0.67 141.82 131.70 7.31 12.73 42.43 32.37 35.12 25.06 17.23 22.58 41.95 35.89
Africa
Crustaceans 8.46 0.36 66.20 15.70 0.47 0.44 93.59 87.24 7.24 13.17 27.38 21.07 20.14 13.83 26.45 34.38 33.49 28.42
Molluscs 0.45 0.18 33.18 0.52 0.24 0.22 48.23 44.46 0.07 2.75 15.05 11.30 14.98 11.23 0.44 0.58 102.94 92.00
Shell molluscs 0.45 0.04 8.28 0.52 0.06 0.05 11.15 10.28 0.07 2.75 2.87 2.00 2.81 1.94 2.28 3.27 49.14 40.38
Cephalopods 0.13 24.90 0.19 0.17 37.08 34.18 12.18 9.29 12.18 9.29
61
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
62

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 642.34 8.66 8 707.27 915.06 9.78 9.40 11 184.82 10 650.82 272.72 7.33 2 477.55 1 948.03 2 204.83 1 675.32 11.01 14.00 37.17 32.17
Finfish 632.70 8.49 8 556.62 902.86 9.57 9.21 10 972.59 10 452.23 270.15 7.37 2 415.97 1 900.01 2 145.82 1 629.86 11.18 14.22 36.96 31.97
Marine fish 1.09 5.39 5 409.36 1.64 6.09 5.88 6 952.98 6 644.88 0.54 8.38 1 543.62 1 238.29 1 543.08 1 237.75 0.04 0.04 326.52 308.14
F&D fish 631.61 3.10 3 147.26 901.22 3.48 3.33 4 019.61 3 807.35 269.61 7.37 872.35 661.71 602.74 392.10 30.91 40.74 18.95 15.41
Sub-Saharan
Shellfish 9.64 0.16 150.65 12.20 0.20 0.19 212.23 198.59 2.56 4.83 61.58 48.03 59.02 45.46 4.16 5.34 49.18 43.01
Africa
Crustaceans 6.32 0.10 92.07 8.08 0.12 0.11 129.98 122.11 1.76 5.04 37.91 30.09 36.15 28.33 4.64 5.85 47.59 41.95
Molluscs 3.32 0.07 58.58 4.13 0.09 0.08 82.25 76.49 0.80 4.43 23.67 17.94 22.87 17.14 3.39 4.48 52.04 44.95
Shell molluscs 3.32 0.05 39.79 4.13 0.06 0.05 55.00 51.21 0.80 4.43 15.20 11.44 14.40 10.64 5.28 7.02 41.01 34.75
Cephalopods 0.02 18.79 0.03 0.03 27.25 25.28 8.47 6.50 8.47 6.50
Fish 6.23 5.98 375.84 8.02 6.51 6.35 427.21 412.01 1.79 5.17 51.37 36.40 49.58 34.61 3.48 4.91 56.00 46.89
Finfish 3.23 5.36 337.10 4.45 5.77 5.64 379.62 366.49 1.22 6.61 42.52 29.60 41.30 28.38 2.87 4.12 69.88 58.98
Marine fish 0.13 5.11 321.87 0.23 5.52 5.39 362.73 350.36 0.10 11.74 40.86 28.69 40.77 28.60 0.24 0.34 215.75 194.27
F&D fish 3.10 0.24 15.23 4.23 0.26 0.25 16.88 16.13 1.12 6.37 1.65 0.91 0.53 - 0.21 67.94 123.57 8.92 5.27
Southern
Shellfish 3.00 0.63 38.74 3.57 0.74 0.71 47.59 45.52 0.57 3.53 8.85 6.80 8.28 6.23 6.41 8.35 31.61 26.70
Africa
Crustaceans 0.00 0.37 23.17 0.00 0.43 0.42 28.29 27.15 5.12 3.99 5.12 3.99 308.54 288.78
Molluscs 3.00 0.26 15.57 3.56 0.31 0.29 19.31 18.37 0.57 3.53 3.73 2.80 3.16 2.24 15.21 20.25 17.56 14.12
Shell molluscs 3.00 0.13 8.22 3.56 0.16 0.15 9.99 9.51 0.57 3.53 1.77 1.30 1.20 0.73 32.07 43.79 9.73 7.45
Cephalopods 0.12 7.36 0.15 0.14 9.32 8.86 1.96 1.51 1.96 1.51
Fish 211.06 4.80 1 901.11 290.52 5.49 5.23 2 485.24 2 342.75 79.46 6.60 584.13 442.64 504.67 363.19 13.60 17.95 30.38 25.37
Finfish 204.75 4.73 1 874.62 282.45 5.39 5.13 2 441.46 2 302.89 77.70 6.65 566.84 429.27 489.14 351.57 13.71 18.10 30.39 25.36
Marine fish 0.96 1.17 452.64 1.41 1.33 1.27 591.38 557.97 0.45 7.89 138.74 105.56 138.29 105.11 0.32 0.42 170.55 156.27
F&D fish 203.78 3.56 1 421.98 281.04 4.05 3.86 1 850.08 1 744.93 77.25 6.64 428.10 323.71 350.85 246.46 18.05 23.86 25.40 20.95
Eastern Africa Shellfish 6.31 0.07 26.50 8.07 0.10 0.10 43.79 39.86 1.76 5.04 17.29 13.37 15.53 11.61 10.18 13.16 30.18 25.54
Crustaceans 6.31 0.05 18.52 8.07 0.07 0.06 31.00 28.29 1.76 5.04 12.48 9.78 10.72 8.02 14.10 18.00 24.39 20.58
Molluscs 0.00 0.02 7.98 0.00 0.03 0.03 12.79 11.57 4.81 3.60 4.81 3.60 337.60 312.91
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 2.81 0.00 0.01 0.01 4.11 3.78 1.30 0.96 1.30 0.96 236.81 217.50
Cephalopods 0.02 5.16 0.02 0.02 8.68 7.80 3.51 2.63 3.51 2.63
Fish 418.56 13.65 4 883.13 609.67 15.49 14.86 6 313.73 6 004.83 191.11 7.81 1 430.59 1 124.14 1 239.49 933.03 13.36 17.00 34.60 29.81
Finfish 418.24 13.46 4 818.01 609.11 15.24 14.63 6 220.92 5 918.31 190.87 7.81 1 402.91 1 102.72 1 212.04 911.85 13.61 17.31 34.21 29.46
Marine fish 10.24 3 667.58 11.71 11.25 4 778.73 4 551.98 1 111.15 886.25 1 111.15 886.25
F&D fish 418.24 3.21 1 150.43 609.11 3.53 3.38 1 442.19 1 366.34 190.87 7.81 291.76 216.47 100.89 25.60 65.42 88.17 11.16 8.70
Western
Shellfish 0.32 0.19 65.13 0.56 0.24 0.23 92.81 86.52 0.24 11.56 27.68 21.42 27.45 21.19 0.85 1.10 143.98 131.94
Africa
Crustaceans 0.09 33.22 0.11 0.11 46.79 43.96 13.57 10.76 13.57 10.76
Molluscs 0.32 0.10 31.91 0.56 0.13 0.12 46.02 42.55 0.24 11.56 14.11 10.66 13.87 10.42 1.67 2.21 113.68 102.33
Shell molluscs 0.32 0.09 27.84 0.56 0.11 0.10 39.71 36.78 0.24 11.56 11.87 8.95 11.63 8.72 1.99 2.63 106.59 95.61
Cephalopods 0.01 4.07 0.02 0.02 6.31 5.77 2.24 1.71 2.24 1.71
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 4.50 9.79 1 509.15 4.86 10.73 10.45 1 913.88 1 848.27 0.36 1.56 404.73 339.89 404.36 339.53 0.09 0.11 146.44 138.08
Finfish 4.50 9.65 1 488.87 4.86 10.56 10.30 1 885.84 1 821.56 0.36 1.56 396.97 333.45 396.61 333.09 0.09 0.11 145.50 137.18
Marine fish 6.24 961.99 6.80 6.66 1 213.66 1 178.29 251.67 216.80 251.67 216.80
F&D fish 4.50 3.42 526.88 4.86 3.77 3.64 672.18 643.27 0.36 1.56 145.30 116.65 144.94 116.29 0.25 0.31 101.57 93.19
Middle Africa Shellfish 0.14 20.28 0.16 0.16 28.04 26.71 7.76 6.44 7.76 6.44
Crustaceans 0.11 17.17 0.14 0.13 23.90 22.71 6.73 5.56 6.73 5.56
Molluscs 0.02 3.11 0.03 0.03 4.14 3.99 1.03 0.88 1.03 0.88
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.92 0.01 0.01 1.19 1.14 0.27 0.23 0.27 0.23
Cephalopods 0.02 2.20 0.02 0.02 2.95 2.85 0.75 0.65 0.75 0.65
Fish 3 627.07 14.16 14 110.82 4 643.12 15.87 15.35 16 531.15 15 821.18 1 016.05 5.06 2 420.33 1 717.83 1 404.28 701.78 41.98 59.15 10.77 8.06
Finfish 2 248.36 9.80 9 771.67 2 959.28 10.57 10.25 11 016.95 10 572.75 710.92 5.65 1 245.28 806.34 534.37 95.42 57.09 88.17 9.22 6.32
Marine fish 16.95 6.23 6 208.90 27.53 6.75 6.56 7 033.21 6 765.37 10.58 10.18 824.31 559.83 813.73 549.26 1.28 1.89 118.35 102.48
F&D fish 2 231.41 3.58 3 562.77 2 931.75 3.82 3.69 3 983.74 3 807.38 700.34 5.61 420.97 246.50 - 279.37 - 453.84 166.36 284.11 3.52 2.12
Americas Shellfish 1 378.70 4.36 4 339.15 1 683.84 5.30 5.09 5 514.20 5 248.43 305.13 4.08 1 175.05 911.50 869.92 606.36 25.97 33.48 13.12 10.68
Crustaceans 788.73 2.52 2 509.99 1 002.82 3.07 2.96 3 196.45 3 047.52 214.09 4.92 686.46 538.81 472.36 324.71 31.19 39.73 13.34 10.97
Molluscs 589.98 1.84 1 829.16 681.02 2.23 2.14 2 317.75 2 200.92 91.04 2.91 488.59 372.69 397.55 281.65 18.63 24.43 12.82 10.29
Shell molluscs 589.98 1.51 1 508.11 681.02 1.82 1.75 1 898.62 1 804.02 91.04 2.91 390.51 296.67 299.47 205.63 23.31 30.69 10.69 8.49
Cephalopods 0.32 321.05 0.40 0.39 419.13 396.90 98.08 76.02 98.08 76.02
Fish 578.71 21.80 7 829.78 575.58 24.93 24.00 9 290.39 8 860.72 - 3.13 - 0.11 1 460.62 1 034.74 1 463.75 1 037.87 28.65 22.76
Finfish 317.35 12.68 4 554.31 302.53 13.75 13.27 5 124.17 4 898.69 - 14.81 - 0.95 569.87 346.59 584.68 361.40 22.83 15.91
Marine fish 2.81 7.42 2 666.59 3.83 8.07 7.80 3 005.70 2 879.98 1.02 6.40 339.11 214.69 338.09 213.67 0.30 0.48 161.31 138.71
F&D fish 314.54 5.26 1 887.72 298.71 5.69 5.47 2 118.48 2 018.70 - 15.83 - 1.03 230.76 131.90 246.59 147.74 11.63 7.26
Northern
Shellfish 261.36 9.12 3 275.47 273.04 11.18 10.73 4 166.22 3 962.03 11.68 0.88 890.75 688.15 879.06 676.47 1.31 1.70 34.54 29.44
America
Crustaceans 60.48 5.45 1 958.17 69.49 6.72 6.46 2 503.98 2 384.47 9.01 2.81 545.81 427.24 536.80 418.24 1.65 2.11 58.57 51.81
Molluscs 200.87 3.67 1 317.30 203.55 4.46 4.27 1 662.24 1 577.57 2.68 0.27 344.94 260.91 342.26 258.23 0.78 1.03 22.13 18.11
Shell molluscs 200.87 3.34 1 200.99 203.55 4.06 3.89 1 514.19 1 437.52 2.68 0.27 313.21 237.11 310.53 234.43 0.85 1.13 20.68 16.87
Cephalopods 0.32 116.31 0.40 0.38 148.04 140.05 31.73 23.80 31.73 23.80
Fish 3 048.36 9.86 6 281.04 4 067.54 10.82 10.52 7 240.76 6 960.47 1 019.18 5.94 959.72 683.09 - 59.47 - 336.09 106.20 149.20 5.63 4.13
Finfish 1 931.02 8.18 5 217.36 2 656.75 8.80 8.57 5 892.77 5 674.06 725.73 6.59 675.41 459.74 - 50.32 - 265.99 107.45 157.86 6.18 4.36
Marine fish 14.14 5.56 3 542.31 23.70 6.02 5.87 4 027.51 3 885.39 9.56 10.88 485.20 345.14 475.65 335.59 1.97 2.77 103.97 90.98
F&D fish 1 916.87 2.63 1 675.05 2 633.05 2.79 2.70 1 865.27 1 788.67 716.17 6.55 190.21 114.60 - 525.96 - 601.58 376.51 624.94 1.91 1.17
Latin America
and the Shellfish 1 117.34 1.67 1 063.68 1 410.80 2.02 1.95 1 347.98 1 286.40 293.45 4.77 284.30 223.35 - 9.15 - 70.10 103.22 131.39 4.64 3.71
Caribbean
Crustaceans 728.24 0.87 551.82 933.33 1.03 1.00 692.47 663.05 205.09 5.09 140.65 111.56 - 64.44 - 93.53 145.82 183.83 3.59 2.89
Molluscs 389.10 0.80 511.86 477.47 0.98 0.94 655.51 623.35 88.36 4.18 143.65 111.78 55.29 23.42 61.51 79.05 6.49 5.18
Shell molluscs 389.10 0.48 307.12 477.47 0.58 0.55 384.42 366.50 88.36 4.18 77.30 59.56 - 11.06 - 28.80 114.31 148.36 3.69 2.89
Cephalopods 0.32 204.74 0.41 0.39 271.09 256.85 66.35 52.22 66.35 52.22
63
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
64

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 387.30 10.89 1 893.29 513.13 12.32 11.81 2 277.30 2 158.07 125.83 5.79 384.01 265.92 258.19 140.09 32.77 47.32 14.77 11.02
Finfish 159.55 8.51 1 479.11 243.34 9.33 8.96 1 724.47 1 637.08 83.79 8.81 245.36 158.87 161.57 75.08 34.15 52.74 20.47 14.82
Marine fish 13.30 5.81 1 010.19 22.72 6.40 6.16 1 182.99 1 125.45 9.42 11.30 172.81 115.87 163.39 106.45 5.45 8.13 69.50 57.56
F&D fish 146.25 2.70 468.92 220.61 2.93 2.80 541.47 511.63 74.37 8.57 72.55 43.00 - 1.81 - 31.37 102.50 172.97 8.39 5.29
Central
Shellfish 227.75 2.38 414.18 269.79 2.99 2.85 552.84 520.99 42.04 3.45 138.65 107.05 96.62 65.02 30.32 39.27 9.98 8.01
America
Crustaceans 214.86 1.60 278.95 248.40 2.02 1.92 372.56 351.79 33.54 2.94 93.61 73.01 60.07 39.47 35.83 45.94 7.50 6.03
Molluscs 12.89 0.78 135.24 21.39 0.98 0.93 180.28 169.20 8.49 10.65 45.04 34.04 36.55 25.55 18.86 24.95 35.06 29.49
Shell molluscs 12.89 0.47 81.17 21.39 0.58 0.55 106.36 99.91 8.49 10.65 25.19 18.79 16.70 10.30 33.72 45.20 24.19 19.70
Cephalopods 0.31 54.07 0.40 0.38 73.92 69.28 19.85 15.24 19.85 15.24
Fish 29.50 8.51 366.81 30.52 9.53 9.33 423.23 410.09 1.01 0.68 56.41 43.47 55.40 42.46 1.80 2.33 23.83 19.86
Finfish 23.43 7.56 325.95 23.39 8.38 8.21 372.30 361.17 - 0.04 - 0.04 46.35 35.40 46.39 35.44 24.39 20.21
Marine fish 0.40 6.74 290.63 0.41 7.55 7.40 335.70 325.39 0.01 0.52 45.07 34.91 45.06 34.90 0.02 0.03 158.29 145.55
F&D fish 23.04 0.82 35.32 22.98 0.83 0.82 36.59 35.78 - 0.05 - 0.05 1.28 0.48 1.33 0.54 1.09 0.42
Caribbean Shellfish 6.07 0.95 40.87 7.13 1.15 1.11 50.93 48.92 1.06 3.26 10.06 8.08 9.01 7.02 10.50 13.07 21.58 18.43
Crustaceans 4.50 0.49 20.97 5.55 0.60 0.58 26.46 25.46 1.05 4.30 5.49 4.50 4.44 3.45 19.19 23.40 17.29 14.87
Molluscs 1.57 0.46 19.90 1.58 0.55 0.54 24.47 23.46 0.00 0.03 4.57 3.58 4.57 3.57 0.06 0.07 31.34 26.78
Shell molluscs 1.57 0.40 17.35 1.58 0.48 0.46 21.17 20.34 0.00 0.03 3.82 2.99 3.82 2.99 0.07 0.09 27.97 23.77
Cephalopods 0.06 2.55 0.08 0.07 3.30 3.13 0.75 0.58 0.75 0.58
Fish 2 631.56 9.56 4 020.94 3 523.90 10.32 10.09 4 540.23 4 392.30 892.34 6.01 519.29 373.69 - 373.05 - 518.65 171.84 238.79 3.67 2.69
Finfish 1 748.04 8.12 3 412.31 2 390.02 8.63 8.45 3 796.01 3 675.81 641.98 6.46 383.70 265.48 - 258.28 - 376.50 167.31 241.82 4.05 2.87
Marine fish 0.44 5.33 2 241.49 0.57 5.70 5.59 2 508.81 2 434.56 0.12 5.06 267.32 194.36 267.20 194.24 0.05 0.06 259.86 237.68
F&D fish 1 747.59 2.78 1 170.82 2 389.45 2.93 2.85 1 287.20 1 241.26 641.86 6.46 116.38 71.12 - 525.48 - 570.74 551.51 902.50 1.30 0.80
South
Shellfish 883.52 1.45 608.63 1 133.88 1.69 1.65 744.21 716.49 250.36 5.12 135.59 108.21 - 114.77 - 142.14 184.65 231.35 2.90 2.34
America
Crustaceans 508.88 0.60 251.90 679.37 0.67 0.66 293.45 285.80 170.49 5.95 41.55 34.05 - 128.95 - 136.44 410.37 500.76 1.58 1.30
Molluscs 374.64 0.85 356.72 454.50 1.03 0.99 450.76 430.69 79.87 3.94 94.04 74.17 14.17 - 5.70 84.93 107.68 4.58 3.68
Shell molluscs 374.64 0.50 208.60 454.50 0.59 0.57 256.89 246.26 79.87 3.94 48.29 37.77 - 31.58 - 42.09 165.40 211.45 2.45 1.94
Cephalopods 0.35 148.12 0.44 0.42 193.88 184.43 45.75 36.40 45.75 36.40
Fish 69 662.19 22.79 99 974.34 86 536.21 30.41 27.57 139 376.70 125 039.50 16 874.01 4.43 39 402.36 25 120.66 22 528.35 8 246.66 42.82 67.17 9.38 6.35
Finfish 47 467.90 16.51 72 680.69 59 890.54 20.39 18.59 93 831.26 84 668.18 12 422.64 4.76 21 150.58 12 028.22 8 727.94 - 394.42 58.73 103.28 7.65 4.62
Marine fish 2 187.04 6.64 29 104.56 2 759.57 7.94 7.38 36 380.27 33 448.32 572.54 4.76 7 275.71 4 359.76 6 703.17 3 787.23 7.87 13.13 34.04 24.52
F&D fish 45 280.86 9.87 43 576.13 57 130.97 12.44 11.21 57 450.99 51 219.86 11 850.10 4.76 13 874.86 7 668.46 2 024.76 -4 181.64 85.41 154.53 5.49 3.18
Asia Shellfish 22 194.29 6.28 27 293.66 26 645.66 10.02 8.98 45 545.44 40 371.31 4 451.37 3.72 18 251.78 13 092.44 13 800.41 8 641.07 24.39 34.00 12.75 9.72
Crustaceans 6 616.62 2.14 9 331.53 8 341.62 3.38 3.04 15 388.89 13 705.72 1 725.01 4.74 6 057.36 4 379.28 4 332.36 2 654.27 28.48 39.39 13.88 10.69
Molluscs 15 577.68 4.13 17 962.13 18 304.04 6.64 5.93 30 156.54 26 665.60 2 726.37 3.28 12 194.42 8 713.16 9 468.05 5 986.79 22.36 31.29 12.26 9.29
Shell molluscs 15 577.68 3.53 15 360.64 18 304.04 5.73 5.10 26 021.41 22 951.25 2 726.37 3.28 10 660.77 7 598.93 7 934.40 4 872.56 25.57 35.88 10.99 8.27
Cephalopods 0.60 2 601.49 0.91 0.83 4 135.14 3 714.35 1 533.65 1 114.23 1 533.65 1 114.23
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 49 348.28 38.64 62 413.45 60 106.24 53.89 48.75 88 454.00 79 230.14 10 757.95 4.02 26 040.55 16 849.97 15 282.60 6 092.02 41.31 63.85 8.84 6.05
Finfish 29 924.65 24.03 38 824.45 36 985.27 29.89 27.28 49 069.12 44 339.64 7 060.62 4.33 10 244.68 5 535.87 3 184.05 -1 524.75 68.92 127.54 6.07 3.45
Marine fish 1 688.09 7.89 12 739.98 2 126.95 9.18 8.59 15 076.29 13 963.34 438.86 4.73 2 336.31 1 229.83 1 897.45 790.96 18.78 35.68 18.98 11.57
F&D fish 28 236.56 16.15 26 084.47 34 858.32 20.71 18.69 33 992.84 30 376.30 6 621.76 4.30 7 908.36 4 306.05 1 286.61 -2 315.71 83.73 153.78 5.06 2.88
Eastern Asia Shellfish 19 423.63 14.60 23 589.00 23 120.96 24.00 21.47 39 384.87 34 890.50 3 697.33 3.55 15 795.87 11 314.10 12 098.54 7 616.77 23.41 32.68 12.64 9.61
Crustaceans 4 311.93 4.31 6 969.51 5 333.93 6.96 6.26 11 420.75 10 181.66 1 022.00 4.35 4 451.23 3 215.84 3 429.23 2 193.84 22.96 31.78 15.24 11.79
Molluscs 15 111.70 10.29 16 619.49 17 787.03 17.04 15.20 27 964.13 24 708.84 2 675.33 3.31 11 344.64 8 098.26 8 669.31 5 422.93 23.58 33.04 11.85 8.96
Shell molluscs 15 111.70 9.07 14 648.78 17 787.03 15.18 13.51 24 911.86 21 958.54 2 675.33 3.31 10 263.07 7 317.66 7 587.74 4 642.33 26.07 36.56 10.92 8.22
Cephalopods 1.22 1 970.70 1.86 1.70 3 052.27 2 750.30 1 081.57 780.60 1 081.57 780.60
Fish 11 902.85 34.98 22 284.89 15 592.19 45.64 41.68 30 620.00 27 657.99 3 689.33 5.55 8 335.10 5 386.15 4 645.77 1 696.82 44.26 68.50 11.20 7.75
Finfish 9 801.69 30.49 19 426.88 13 064.44 38.59 35.30 25 886.26 23 428.63 3 262.75 5.92 6 459.37 4 013.13 3 196.62 750.38 50.51 81.30 10.65 7.10
Marine fish 176.36 18.31 11 663.42 221.88 23.15 21.33 15 532.16 14 152.89 45.52 4.70 3 868.74 2 496.23 3 823.21 2 450.71 1.18 1.82 87.11 72.23
F&D fish 9 625.34 12.19 7 763.47 12 842.56 15.43 13.98 10 354.10 9 275.74 3 217.23 5.94 2 590.64 1 516.90 - 626.59 -1 700.33 124.19 212.09 4.88 2.97
South-eastern
Shellfish 2 101.16 4.49 2 858.01 2 527.74 7.06 6.37 4 733.74 4 229.36 426.58 3.77 1 875.73 1 373.03 1 449.15 946.45 22.74 31.07 13.61 10.58
Asia
Crustaceans 1 646.79 2.52 1 606.34 2 019.18 3.97 3.59 2 663.32 2 385.36 372.39 4.16 1 056.99 779.97 684.59 407.57 35.23 47.74 10.42 8.06
Molluscs 454.38 1.96 1 251.67 508.56 3.09 2.78 2 070.42 1 844.00 54.19 2.28 818.74 593.06 764.56 538.87 6.62 9.14 22.88 18.18
Shell molluscs 454.38 1.02 649.83 508.56 1.53 1.38 1 027.23 917.25 54.19 2.28 377.40 267.80 323.21 213.61 14.36 20.23 12.85 9.71
Cephalopods 0.94 601.84 1.56 1.40 1 043.19 926.75 441.35 325.26 441.35 325.26
Fish 363.42 7.49 1 942.55 473.47 8.09 7.93 2 275.44 2 206.72 110.05 5.43 332.89 265.21 222.84 155.16 33.06 41.50 13.89 11.58
Finfish 356.03 6.89 1 788.58 465.62 7.40 7.26 2 081.72 2 020.39 109.59 5.51 293.13 232.76 183.55 123.17 37.38 47.08 12.76 10.58
Marine fish 144.23 5.02 1 302.95 191.69 5.42 5.32 1 525.02 1 482.32 47.46 5.85 222.06 180.05 174.60 132.59 21.37 26.36 20.49 17.59
F&D fish 211.80 1.87 485.63 273.93 1.98 1.93 556.70 538.07 62.13 5.28 71.07 52.70 8.95 - 9.42 87.41 117.88 5.96 4.54
Western Asia Shellfish 7.39 0.60 153.96 7.85 0.69 0.67 193.72 186.33 0.47 1.23 39.76 32.46 39.29 31.99 1.17 1.44 44.88 40.08
Crustaceans 6.61 0.37 96.08 7.07 0.43 0.42 120.16 116.41 0.47 1.37 24.08 20.39 23.62 19.92 1.93 2.29 35.96 32.51
Molluscs 0.78 0.23 57.89 0.78 0.27 0.25 73.56 69.92 15.67 12.07 15.67 12.07 83.95 75.08
Shell molluscs 0.78 0.16 41.00 0.78 0.19 0.18 51.73 49.07 10.73 8.09 10.73 8.09 71.28 62.56
Cephalopods 0.07 16.89 0.08 0.07 21.83 20.86 4.94 3.98 4.94 3.98
Fish 32.15 2.23 150.95 53.31 2.38 2.30 172.21 164.22 21.16 10.64 21.26 13.36 0.11 - 7.80 99.50 158.38 10.68 7.20
Finfish 32.15 2.19 148.46 53.31 2.34 2.26 169.19 161.34 21.16 10.64 20.73 12.97 - 0.43 - 8.18 102.06 163.09 10.46 7.01
Marine fish 1.29 87.65 1.38 1.34 99.74 95.73 12.10 8.14 12.10 8.14
F&D fish 32.15 0.90 60.81 53.31 0.96 0.92 69.44 65.61 21.16 10.64 8.63 4.83 - 12.52 - 16.32 245.08 437.80 4.87 2.84
Central Asia Shellfish 0.04 2.49 0.04 0.04 3.02 2.87 0.53 0.39 0.53 0.39
Crustaceans 0.02 1.46 0.02 0.02 1.76 1.68 0.30 0.22 0.30 0.22
Molluscs 0.02 1.03 0.02 0.02 1.26 1.19 0.23 0.17 0.23 0.17
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.68 0.01 0.01 0.83 0.78 0.14 0.10 0.14 0.10
Cephalopods 0.01 0.35 0.01 0.01 0.43 0.41 0.09 0.06 0.09 0.06
65
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
66

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 8 015.49 7.23 13 182.50 10 311.00 9.21 8.23 17 855.05 15 780.44 2 295.52 5.17 4 672.55 2 605.96 2 377.03 310.45 49.13 88.09 9.62 5.79
Finfish 7 353.37 6.84 12 492.31 9 321.90 8.56 7.66 16 624.98 14 718.19 1 968.53 4.86 4 132.67 2 233.50 2 164.14 264.97 47.63 88.14 9.33 5.45
Marine fish 178.36 1.84 3 310.56 219.05 2.17 1.98 4 147.06 3 754.04 40.68 4.19 836.50 445.51 795.82 404.83 4.86 9.13 41.59 28.46
F&D fish 7 175.01 5.00 9 181.75 9 102.85 6.39 5.68 12 477.91 10 964.15 1 927.84 4.87 3 296.16 1 787.99 1 368.32 - 139.85 58.49 107.82 7.85 4.55
South Asia Shellfish 662.12 0.39 690.19 989.10 0.65 0.57 1 230.08 1 062.24 326.99 8.36 539.88 372.46 212.90 45.47 60.57 87.79 12.67 9.34
Crustaceans 651.30 0.37 658.14 981.44 0.63 0.55 1 182.90 1 020.61 330.14 8.55 524.76 362.86 194.61 32.72 62.91 90.98 12.55 9.26
Molluscs 10.82 0.02 32.05 7.66 0.03 0.02 47.18 41.63 - 3.15 - 6.66 15.13 9.60 18.28 12.76 19.12 13.55
Shell molluscs 10.82 0.01 20.34 7.66 0.02 0.01 29.76 25.61 - 3.15 - 6.66 9.42 5.28 12.57 8.43 13.34 8.27
Cephalopods 0.01 11.71 0.01 0.01 17.42 16.03 5.71 4.33 5.71 4.33
Fish 3 089.35 22.06 16 286.29 3 620.84 24.99 24.22 18 470.11 17 738.39 531.49 3.23 2 183.83 1 459.92 1 652.34 928.43 24.34 36.41 11.29 8.05
Finfish 2 486.95 17.51 12 925.83 3 016.41 19.34 18.78 14 296.58 13 758.12 529.47 3.94 1 370.75 838.54 841.28 309.07 38.63 63.14 9.18 5.98
Marine fish 174.54 13.31 9 823.94 169.33 14.77 14.36 10 917.06 10 518.49 - 5.20 - 0.60 1 093.12 699.30 1 098.33 704.50 48.67 38.01
F&D fish 2 312.41 4.20 3 101.90 2 847.08 4.57 4.42 3 379.52 3 239.62 534.67 4.25 277.63 139.24 - 257.04 - 395.43 192.59 383.99 2.29 1.18
Europe Shellfish 602.41 4.55 3 360.45 604.43 5.65 5.43 4 173.53 3 980.28 2.02 0.07 813.08 621.38 811.06 619.36 0.25 0.33 18.63 15.23
Crustaceans 0.34 1.78 1 313.26 0.40 2.21 2.13 1 630.08 1 563.28 0.06 3.57 316.82 250.64 316.76 250.57 0.02 0.03 293.72 275.72
Molluscs 602.07 2.77 2 047.20 604.03 3.44 3.30 2 543.45 2 417.00 1.96 0.06 496.26 370.75 494.30 368.79 0.39 0.53 12.78 10.07
Shell molluscs 602.07 1.97 1 454.09 604.02 2.42 2.32 1 790.27 1 702.32 1.96 0.06 336.18 248.90 334.22 246.94 0.58 0.79 9.28 7.17
Cephalopods 0.00 0.80 593.11 0.00 1.02 0.98 753.19 714.68 160.08 121.85 160.08 121.85
Fish 569.82 29.73 4 522.26 568.34 34.30 33.04 5 199.95 4 966.16 - 1.48 - 0.05 677.69 445.94 679.17 447.43 16.97 12.26
Finfish 235.25 20.63 3 138.41 229.50 22.87 22.11 3 466.79 3 323.31 - 5.74 - 0.49 328.38 186.33 334.12 192.07 19.10 12.38
Marine fish 160.36 17.47 2 658.07 154.40 19.44 18.81 2 946.30 2 827.46 - 5.96 - 0.76 288.23 170.60 294.19 176.56 22.84 15.59
F&D fish 74.89 3.16 480.34 75.11 3.43 3.30 520.49 495.85 0.22 0.06 40.15 15.73 39.93 15.51 0.54 1.39 8.96 3.89
Southern
Shellfish 334.57 9.10 1 383.85 338.83 11.43 10.93 1 733.16 1 642.85 4.26 0.25 349.31 259.62 345.04 255.35 1.22 1.64 15.37 12.17
Europe
Crustaceans 0.24 2.04 310.91 0.28 2.53 2.43 384.23 365.03 0.04 3.47 73.33 54.26 73.28 54.22 0.06 0.08 214.36 196.05
Molluscs 334.33 7.05 1 072.95 338.55 8.90 8.50 1 348.93 1 277.82 4.22 0.25 275.98 205.36 271.76 201.14 1.53 2.05 12.79 10.05
Shell molluscs 334.33 4.42 672.16 338.55 5.48 5.24 831.38 787.71 4.22 0.25 159.23 115.86 155.01 111.64 2.65 3.64 8.10 6.13
Cephalopods 0.00 2.63 400.79 0.00 3.41 3.26 517.55 490.11 116.76 89.50 116.76 89.50
Fish 1 911.26 25.16 2 576.02 2 382.91 28.53 27.92 3 002.51 2 911.15 471.65 4.51 426.49 336.39 - 45.16 - 135.26 110.59 140.21 4.11 3.30
Finfish 1 863.79 19.47 1 993.38 2 341.75 21.53 21.10 2 265.19 2 199.80 477.96 4.67 271.80 207.39 - 206.16 - 270.57 175.85 230.47 2.76 2.13
Marine fish 7.23 15.33 1 569.71 7.24 17.05 16.72 1 793.84 1 743.96 0.00 0.01 224.14 175.03 224.13 175.03 0.00 0.00 99.98 90.66
F&D fish 1 856.55 4.14 423.67 2 334.51 4.48 4.37 471.34 455.83 477.96 4.69 47.67 32.36 - 430.29 - 445.60 1 002.71 1 477.04 0.51 0.35
Northern
Shellfish 47.47 5.69 582.63 41.16 7.01 6.82 737.32 711.36 - 6.31 - 2.81 154.69 129.00 161.00 135.32 33.61 30.03
Europe
Crustaceans 0.00 4.40 450.11 0.00 5.44 5.31 572.79 553.55 122.68 103.66 122.68 103.66 842.84 811.60
Molluscs 47.47 1.30 132.53 41.16 1.56 1.51 164.53 157.81 - 6.31 - 2.81 32.00 25.34 38.32 31.65 10.86 8.93
Shell molluscs 47.47 1.14 117.21 41.16 1.38 1.34 145.44 139.56 - 6.31 - 2.81 28.23 22.41 34.55 28.72 9.78 8.04
Cephalopods 0.15 15.32 0.18 0.18 19.09 18.25 3.77 2.93 3.77 2.93
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 318.15 17.19 5 030.93 377.82 19.21 18.57 5 559.80 5 321.42 59.67 3.50 528.87 293.15 469.20 233.48 11.28 20.35 21.63 13.95
Finfish 312.03 15.79 4 622.92 367.63 17.51 16.94 5 067.23 4 854.53 55.60 3.33 444.31 234.05 388.71 178.46 12.51 23.75 19.37 11.84
Marine fish 1.10 11.16 3 266.11 1.74 12.43 12.04 3 596.22 3 450.89 0.65 9.71 330.11 186.50 329.46 185.85 0.20 0.35 213.33 179.66
F&D fish 310.94 4.64 1 356.81 365.89 5.08 4.90 1 471.00 1 403.64 54.95 3.31 114.20 47.55 59.25 - 7.40 48.12 115.55 6.46 2.89
Eastern
Shellfish 6.12 1.39 408.01 10.19 1.70 1.63 492.57 466.89 4.07 10.74 84.56 59.10 80.49 55.02 4.82 6.89 71.45 60.51
Europe
Crustaceans 0.06 0.51 148.52 0.08 0.62 0.59 178.19 169.45 0.02 6.27 29.68 21.01 29.66 20.99 0.07 0.09 251.53 228.12
Molluscs 6.07 0.89 259.49 10.12 1.09 1.04 314.38 297.44 4.05 10.78 54.89 38.09 50.83 34.03 7.38 10.64 58.64 48.73
Shell molluscs 6.07 0.50 145.18 10.12 0.60 0.58 174.99 164.85 4.05 10.78 29.81 19.74 25.76 15.69 13.60 20.53 42.68 33.59
Cephalopods 0.39 114.31 0.48 0.46 139.39 132.60 25.08 18.34 25.08 18.34
Fish 290.12 21.77 4 157.07 291.77 24.39 23.72 4 707.86 4 539.66 1.65 0.11 550.78 384.43 549.13 382.78 0.30 0.43 23.72 18.38
Finfish 75.88 16.60 3 171.12 77.53 18.12 17.66 3 497.38 3 380.48 1.65 0.43 326.26 210.77 324.61 209.11 0.51 0.78 39.59 30.45
Marine fish 5.84 12.20 2 330.05 5.95 13.37 13.04 2 580.70 2 496.18 0.11 0.37 250.65 167.17 250.54 167.06 0.04 0.07 113.04 96.91
F&D fish 70.04 4.40 841.07 71.58 4.75 4.62 916.69 884.30 1.54 0.44 75.61 43.60 74.07 42.06 2.04 3.54 15.77 10.16
Western
Shellfish 214.24 5.16 985.95 214.24 6.27 6.06 1 210.48 1 159.18 224.52 173.67 224.52 173.67 15.42 12.61
Europe
Crustaceans 0.04 2.11 403.72 0.04 2.56 2.48 494.86 475.25 91.14 71.70 91.14 71.70 372.89 350.75
Molluscs 214.20 3.05 582.23 214.20 3.71 3.57 715.61 683.93 133.39 101.96 133.39 101.96 10.17 8.10
Shell molluscs 214.20 2.72 519.55 214.20 3.31 3.19 638.46 610.21 118.91 90.89 118.91 90.89 9.23 7.33
Cephalopods 0.33 62.68 0.40 0.39 77.15 73.72 14.47 11.07 14.47 11.07
Fish 188.05 24.74 977.87 194.42 27.98 27.21 1 183.46 1 140.11 6.37 0.67 205.59 162.79 199.23 156.43 3.10 3.91 15.92 13.28
Finfish 76.11 18.85 746.37 88.80 20.79 20.27 881.24 851.12 12.69 3.13 134.88 105.18 122.19 92.49 9.40 12.06 22.62 18.96
Marine fish 8.45 15.78 625.05 7.73 17.51 17.10 742.60 718.20 - 0.71 - 1.75 117.55 93.52 118.27 94.23 71.69 64.57
F&D fish 67.67 3.07 121.32 81.06 3.28 3.17 138.65 132.91 13.40 3.68 17.33 11.66 3.93 - 1.74 77.33 114.94 4.66 3.23
Oceania Shellfish 111.94 5.89 231.50 105.62 7.19 6.94 302.22 289.00 - 6.32 - 1.16 70.71 57.62 77.03 63.94 10.29 8.66
Crustaceans 5.37 3.00 118.60 4.59 3.67 3.55 155.18 148.72 - 0.79 - 3.11 36.58 30.18 37.37 30.97 50.84 45.92
Molluscs 106.57 2.90 112.90 101.04 3.52 3.39 147.03 140.28 - 5.53 - 1.06 34.13 27.44 39.67 32.97 5.71 4.69
Shell molluscs 106.57 1.98 77.63 101.04 2.38 2.29 99.70 95.18 - 5.53 - 1.06 22.07 17.60 27.61 23.13 3.84 3.10
Cephalopods 0.91 35.27 1.15 1.10 47.33 45.09 12.06 9.84 12.06 9.84
Fish 183.44 26.05 747.21 188.90 29.63 28.74 903.63 868.39 5.46 0.59 156.42 121.56 150.95 116.10 3.49 4.49 13.13 10.70
Finfish 73.31 18.28 524.46 85.19 20.06 19.51 611.81 589.48 11.88 3.05 87.35 65.28 75.46 53.40 13.60 18.20 16.99 13.58
Marine fish 8.43 14.61 419.17 7.71 16.11 15.69 491.39 474.09 - 0.72 - 1.77 72.22 55.13 72.94 55.86 57.09 49.78
F&D fish 64.88 3.67 105.29 77.48 3.95 3.82 120.42 115.38 12.60 3.61 15.13 10.14 2.53 - 2.46 83.31 124.25 4.28 2.95
Australia/New
Shellfish 110.13 7.77 222.75 103.71 9.57 9.23 291.82 278.92 - 6.42 - 1.19 69.07 56.29 75.49 62.70 10.23 8.61
Zealand
Crustaceans 3.59 3.99 114.36 2.71 4.92 4.76 150.07 143.77 - 0.88 - 5.49 35.70 29.46 36.59 30.34 61.39 55.90
Molluscs 106.54 3.78 108.38 101.00 4.65 4.47 141.75 135.15 - 5.54 - 1.06 33.37 26.82 38.90 32.36 5.60 4.59
Shell molluscs 106.54 2.57 73.73 101.00 3.12 3.01 95.22 90.82 - 5.54 - 1.06 21.49 17.13 27.03 22.67 3.74 3.03
Cephalopods 1.21 34.66 1.53 1.47 46.53 44.33 11.88 9.69 11.88 9.69
67
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
68

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 4.62 21.14 230.66 5.52 23.55 23.10 279.83 271.72 0.90 3.64 49.18 41.23 48.27 40.33 1.84 2.19 63.41 58.27
Finfish 2.80 20.31 221.90 3.60 22.65 22.22 269.44 261.64 0.80 5.17 47.53 39.90 46.73 39.10 1.69 2.01 78.21 72.44
Marine fish 0.01 18.84 205.88 0.02 21.11 20.72 251.21 244.11 0.01 9.19 45.33 38.38 45.33 38.38 0.02 0.02 400.81 384.42
F&D fish 2.79 1.48 16.03 3.58 1.54 1.50 18.22 17.53 0.79 5.15 2.20 1.51 1.40 0.72 36.17 52.52 12.33 9.06
Pacific islands Shellfish 1.82 0.82 8.75 1.92 0.90 0.88 10.40 10.08 0.10 1.09 1.64 1.33 1.54 1.23 6.16 7.61 13.77 11.64
Crustaceans 1.79 0.39 4.24 1.88 0.43 0.42 5.12 4.95 0.10 1.06 0.88 0.72 0.78 0.62 11.04 13.45 8.32 7.02
Molluscs 0.03 0.43 4.51 0.03 0.47 0.46 5.28 5.12 0.00 2.82 0.77 0.61 0.76 0.61 0.59 0.73 92.54 84.39
Shell molluscs 0.03 0.37 3.90 0.03 0.39 0.38 4.48 4.36 0.00 2.82 0.59 0.47 0.58 0.46 0.77 0.97 82.82 75.10
Cephalopods 0.06 0.62 0.07 0.07 0.80 0.76 0.18 0.15 0.18 0.15
Fish 1.05 0.07 2.20 1.05 0.07 0.07 2.63 2.54 0.43 0.34 0.43 0.34 7.13 5.69
Finfish 1.05 0.07 2.20 1.05 0.07 0.07 2.63 2.54 0.43 0.34 0.43 0.34 7.13 5.69
Marine fish
F&D fish 1.05 0.07 2.20 1.05 0.07 0.07 2.63 2.54 0.43 0.34 0.43 0.34 7.13 5.69
Afghanistan Shellfish
Crustaceans
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Fish 2.17 5.36 15.55 2.13 6.52 6.26 19.16 18.18 - 0.04 - 0.37 3.60 2.64 3.64 2.68 21.65 17.28
Finfish 1.12 4.24 12.28 1.19 4.93 4.75 14.48 13.81 0.07 1.22 2.19 1.54 2.12 1.47 3.19 4.55 24.30 18.92
Marine fish 0.68 3.40 9.86 0.79 3.99 3.85 11.71 11.19 0.11 3.02 1.85 1.34 1.74 1.23 5.93 8.20 29.90 24.19
F&D fish 0.43 0.83 2.42 0.39 0.94 0.90 2.77 2.62 - 0.04 - 1.91 0.35 0.20 0.39 0.24 12.56 7.95
Albania Shellfish 1.05 1.13 3.27 0.94 1.59 1.50 4.68 4.37 - 0.11 - 2.19 1.41 1.10 1.52 1.21 18.55 15.44
Crustaceans 0.01 0.35 1.03 0.01 0.48 0.46 1.42 1.33 0.39 0.30 0.39 0.30 118.17 107.92
Molluscs 1.04 0.77 2.24 0.93 1.11 1.04 3.26 3.04 - 0.11 - 2.21 1.02 0.80 1.13 0.91 14.64 12.07
Shell molluscs 1.04 0.37 1.06 0.93 0.50 0.47 1.47 1.38 - 0.11 - 2.21 0.41 0.32 0.52 0.43 6.90 5.43
Cephalopods 0.41 1.18 0.61 0.57 1.79 1.66 0.61 0.48 0.61 0.48
Fish 2.57 4.16 166.41 2.99 4.51 4.40 195.14 188.68 0.42 3.07 28.74 22.38 28.32 21.96 1.46 1.88 64.83 57.52
Finfish 2.55 3.99 159.55 2.95 4.30 4.21 186.25 180.17 0.40 2.97 26.70 20.71 26.30 20.31 1.50 1.94 62.92 55.63
Marine fish 0.92 3.45 138.11 1.65 3.74 3.67 162.21 157.11 0.73 12.38 24.10 19.09 23.37 18.35 3.03 3.83 93.48 85.01
F&D fish 1.62 0.54 21.44 1.29 0.55 0.54 24.04 23.06 - 0.33 - 4.44 2.60 1.63 2.93 1.96 21.03 14.89
Algeria Shellfish 0.02 0.17 6.86 0.04 0.21 0.20 8.89 8.52 0.02 11.91 2.04 1.66 2.02 1.65 0.92 1.13 141.84 132.39
Crustaceans 0.00 0.12 4.77 0.00 0.14 0.14 6.14 5.89 1.36 1.12 1.36 1.12 320.61 304.24
Molluscs 0.02 0.05 2.09 0.04 0.06 0.06 2.76 2.63 0.02 12.33 0.67 0.55 0.65 0.53 2.80 3.45 96.33 88.60
Shell molluscs 0.02 0.01 0.30 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.37 0.36 0.02 12.33 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.03 26.72 35.52 31.62 26.34
Cephalopods 0.04 1.78 0.06 0.05 2.39 2.28 0.60 0.49 0.60 0.49
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.33 17.07 434.00 0.36 18.22 17.97 541.12 529.04 0.03 1.90 107.11 95.26 107.08 95.23 0.03 0.03 218.74 211.38
Finfish 0.33 16.96 431.30 0.36 18.10 17.86 537.54 525.57 0.03 1.90 106.24 94.50 106.21 94.47 0.03 0.03 218.23 210.88
Marine fish 15.85 402.89 16.92 16.69 502.42 491.40 99.53 88.71 99.53 88.71
F&D fish 0.33 1.12 28.40 0.36 1.18 1.16 35.12 34.18 0.03 1.90 6.71 5.79 6.68 5.76 0.48 0.56 84.81 79.67
Angola Shellfish 0.11 2.71 0.12 0.12 3.58 3.47 0.87 0.76 0.87 0.76
Crustaceans 0.01 0.36 0.02 0.02 0.47 0.46 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.10
Molluscs 0.09 2.35 0.10 0.10 3.11 3.01 0.76 0.66 0.76 0.66
Shell molluscs 0.02 0.60 0.03 0.03 0.77 0.75 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.15
Cephalopods 0.07 1.75 0.08 0.08 2.34 2.26 0.59 0.51 0.59 0.51
Fish 53.36 4.94 61.71 60.25 5.96 5.75 1.02 0.82 1.02 0.82
Finfish 36.45 3.37 40.74 39.94 3.93 3.81 0.56 0.44 0.56 0.44
Marine fish 35.71 3.30 39.97 39.20 3.86 3.74 0.55 0.44 0.55 0.44
F&D fish 0.74 0.07 0.77 0.75 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Antigua and
Shellfish 16.91 1.56 20.97 20.31 2.02 1.94 0.46 0.37 0.46 0.37
Barbuda
Crustaceans 6.26 0.58 7.78 7.56 0.75 0.72 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.14
Molluscs 10.66 0.99 13.20 12.75 1.27 1.22 0.29 0.23 0.29 0.23
Shell molluscs 10.36 0.96 12.82 12.39 1.24 1.18 0.28 0.23 0.28 0.23
Cephalopods 0.30 0.03 0.38 0.36 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Fish 4.48 6.87 299.76 6.23 7.82 7.62 357.64 344.88 1.76 6.84 57.88 45.28 56.12 43.53 3.03 3.88 69.33 61.86
Finfish 4.43 4.25 185.38 6.19 4.63 4.54 211.71 205.34 1.76 6.90 26.33 20.06 24.58 18.31 6.67 8.75 47.34 40.77
Marine fish 4.04 176.31 4.41 4.32 201.58 195.57 25.27 19.36 25.27 19.36
F&D fish 4.43 0.21 9.07 6.19 0.22 0.22 10.14 9.77 1.76 6.90 1.06 0.70 - 0.69 - 1.06 164.97 251.89 4.40 2.96
Argentina Shellfish 0.05 2.62 114.38 0.05 3.19 3.08 145.92 139.54 31.54 25.22 31.54 25.22 266.17 250.18
Crustaceans 0.31 13.63 0.38 0.37 17.34 16.68 3.71 3.07 3.71 3.07
Molluscs 0.05 2.31 100.75 0.05 2.81 2.71 128.59 122.86 27.83 22.16 27.83 22.16 257.13 241.24
Shell molluscs 0.05 0.84 36.57 0.05 1.00 0.97 45.76 43.78 9.18 7.23 9.18 7.23 186.30 173.01
Cephalopods 1.47 64.18 1.81 1.75 82.83 79.07 18.65 14.93 18.65 14.93
Fish 16.00 4.36 13.18 25.39 4.80 4.64 14.57 13.92 9.39 9.68 1.40 0.76 - 8.00 - 8.63 673.09 1 239.72 1.69 0.93
Finfish 15.96 4.34 13.10 25.34 4.77 4.61 14.48 13.84 9.38 9.68 1.37 0.74 - 8.00 - 8.64 682.34 1 264.76 1.67 0.91
Marine fish 1.07 3.24 1.22 1.18 3.70 3.56 0.45 0.32 0.45 0.32
F&D fish 15.96 3.26 9.86 25.34 3.55 3.42 10.78 10.28 9.38 9.68 0.92 0.42 - 8.46 - 8.96 1 019.38 2 214.31 1.13 0.53
Armenia Shellfish 0.04 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.09 0.09 0.01 6.41 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 61.84 80.29 9.71 7.77
Crustaceans 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.01 6.41 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 76.10 97.47 8.14 6.56
Molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
69
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
70

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 80.54 26.18 631.88 90.71 29.85 28.94 768.59 738.23 10.17 2.41 136.72 106.68 126.55 96.51 7.44 9.53 21.95 18.38
Finfish 62.27 17.74 428.29 75.89 19.47 18.93 501.39 482.87 13.62 4.03 73.10 54.80 59.48 41.18 18.63 24.85 16.80 13.46
Marine fish 8.43 13.61 328.65 7.71 15.04 14.65 387.29 373.55 - 0.72 - 1.77 58.64 45.07 59.36 45.79 51.40 44.71
F&D fish 53.84 4.13 99.64 68.18 4.43 4.29 114.10 109.32 14.34 4.84 14.46 9.73 0.12 - 4.61 99.18 147.43 4.87 3.38
Australia Shellfish 18.27 8.43 203.58 14.82 10.38 10.01 267.20 255.36 - 3.45 - 4.10 63.62 51.88 67.07 55.33 34.99 30.88
Crustaceans 3.59 4.29 103.58 2.71 5.29 5.12 136.27 130.53 - 0.88 - 5.49 32.69 27.01 33.58 27.89 58.84 53.52
Molluscs 14.68 4.14 100.00 12.11 5.08 4.89 130.93 124.82 - 2.57 - 3.77 30.93 24.87 33.49 27.44 25.45 21.93
Shell molluscs 14.68 2.93 70.71 12.11 3.55 3.42 91.42 87.20 - 2.57 - 3.77 20.71 16.52 23.28 19.09 19.24 16.28
Cephalopods 1.21 29.29 1.53 1.48 39.51 37.63 10.21 8.35 10.21 8.35
Fish 3.93 13.90 118.91 5.32 15.10 14.84 130.87 127.44 1.38 6.21 11.97 8.59 10.58 7.20 11.55 16.10 32.23 26.06
Finfish 3.93 12.17 104.12 5.32 13.07 12.85 113.30 110.40 1.38 6.21 9.18 6.33 7.80 4.95 15.06 21.84 27.23 21.14
Marine fish 8.10 69.29 8.72 8.59 75.59 73.77 6.30 4.51 6.30 4.51
F&D fish 3.93 4.07 34.83 5.32 4.35 4.27 37.71 36.63 1.38 6.21 2.88 1.82 1.50 0.44 48.03 76.00 11.61 7.90
Austria Shellfish 1.73 14.79 2.03 1.98 17.58 17.04 2.79 2.26 2.79 2.26
Crustaceans 1.04 8.92 1.23 1.20 10.63 10.33 1.71 1.41 1.71 1.41
Molluscs 0.69 5.86 0.80 0.78 6.94 6.71 1.08 0.85 1.08 0.85
Shell molluscs 0.51 4.32 0.59 0.57 5.10 4.93 0.77 0.61 0.77 0.61
Cephalopods 0.18 1.54 0.21 0.21 1.84 1.78 0.30 0.24 0.30 0.24
Fish 0.34 2.11 20.74 0.34 2.25 2.22 23.09 22.58 0.01 0.32 2.36 1.86 2.35 1.85 0.23 0.29 51.65 45.57
Finfish 0.34 2.07 20.35 0.34 2.20 2.18 22.63 22.13 0.01 0.32 2.29 1.80 2.28 1.79 0.24 0.30 50.83 44.76
Marine fish 0.00 1.92 18.79 0.01 2.04 2.01 20.93 20.48 0.01 16.34 2.14 1.70 2.14 1.70 0.26 0.32 238.35 223.13
F&D fish 0.33 0.16 1.56 0.33 0.17 0.16 1.70 1.65 0.14 0.10 0.14 0.10 7.42 5.28
Azerbaijan Shellfish 0.04 0.39 0.04 0.04 0.46 0.45 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
Crustaceans 0.04 0.37 0.04 0.04 0.44 0.43 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
Molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 30.76 12.01 34.36 33.82 14.16 13.78 2.14 1.79 2.14 1.79
Finfish 18.41 7.19 19.93 19.66 8.21 8.01 1.02 0.83 1.02 0.83
Marine fish 17.59 6.87 19.07 18.83 7.86 7.67 0.99 0.81 0.99 0.81
F&D fish 0.83 0.32 0.86 0.84 0.35 0.34 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Bahamas
Shellfish 12.35 4.82 14.43 14.16 5.95 5.77 1.12 0.95 1.12 0.95
Crustaceans 9.62 3.76 11.25 11.05 4.63 4.50 0.88 0.75 0.88 0.75
Molluscs 2.73 1.07 3.18 3.11 1.31 1.27 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.20
Shell molluscs 2.55 1.00 2.98 2.91 1.23 1.19 0.23 0.19 0.23 0.19
Cephalopods 0.17 0.07 0.21 0.20 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.01 9.26 12.84 0.01 9.93 9.80 14.85 14.53 0.00 8.51 2.01 1.70 2.01 1.70 0.14 0.17 223.87 213.10
Finfish 0.01 7.83 10.86 0.01 8.32 8.22 12.44 12.18 0.00 8.51 1.58 1.33 1.58 1.32 0.18 0.22 208.57 198.07
Marine fish 0.01 7.45 10.34 0.01 7.93 7.83 11.85 11.61 0.00 8.51 1.51 1.28 1.51 1.27 0.19 0.22 206.01 195.80
F&D fish 0.38 0.52 0.39 0.39 0.59 0.57 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Bahrain Shellfish 1.42 1.98 1.61 1.58 2.41 2.35 0.43 0.37 0.43 0.37
Crustaceans 1.22 1.70 1.38 1.36 2.07 2.02 0.37 0.32 0.37 0.32
Molluscs 0.20 0.28 0.23 0.22 0.34 0.33 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Shell molluscs 0.09 0.13 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Cephalopods 0.11 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.19 0.18 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Fish 2 295.44 21.15 3 425.25 3 198.21 28.63 25.40 4 906.41 4 300.24 902.77 6.86 1 481.15 877.20 578.38 - 25.56 60.95 102.91 10.47 6.69
Finfish 2 139.80 20.07 3 250.30 2 999.24 26.71 23.72 4 577.68 4 016.03 859.43 6.99 1 327.38 767.84 467.95 - 91.59 64.75 111.93 10.13 6.32
Marine fish 94.22 2.06 332.87 126.46 2.48 2.23 425.83 378.01 32.24 6.06 92.95 45.35 60.71 13.11 34.69 71.10 14.71 8.18
F&D fish 2 045.58 18.01 2 917.42 2 872.77 24.23 21.49 4 151.85 3 638.02 827.19 7.03 1 234.43 722.49 407.24 - 104.69 67.01 114.49 9.90 6.24
Bangladesh Shellfish 155.64 1.08 174.96 198.98 1.92 1.68 328.73 284.20 43.34 5.04 153.77 109.36 110.43 66.02 28.18 39.63 14.73 11.23
Crustaceans 155.64 1.08 174.71 198.98 1.92 1.68 328.35 283.87 43.34 5.04 153.64 109.27 110.30 65.93 28.21 39.66 14.72 11.22
Molluscs 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.33 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.09
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.29 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.08
Cephalopods 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Fish 0.02 40.42 11.50 0.04 45.73 44.76 13.17 12.76 0.02 11.81 1.67 1.26 1.65 1.24 1.11 1.48 132.68 120.00
Finfish 0.02 37.68 10.72 0.04 42.29 41.43 12.18 11.81 0.02 12.00 1.46 1.09 1.44 1.07 1.27 1.71 127.52 114.74
Marine fish 36.93 10.51 41.51 40.67 11.95 11.59 1.45 1.08 1.45 1.08
F&D fish 0.02 0.75 0.21 0.04 0.79 0.76 0.23 0.22 0.02 12.00 0.01 0.00 - 0.01 - 0.01 139.94 443.74 9.09 3.22
Barbados Shellfish 0.00 2.75 0.78 0.00 3.44 3.33 0.99 0.95 0.21 0.17 0.21 0.17 234.80 220.39
Crustaceans 0.00 1.85 0.53 0.00 2.32 2.25 0.67 0.64 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.11 209.40 196.92
Molluscs 0.90 0.26 1.13 1.08 0.32 0.31 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.05
Shell molluscs 0.57 0.16 0.72 0.69 0.21 0.20 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Cephalopods 0.33 0.09 0.41 0.39 0.12 0.11 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Fish 10.77 17.30 164.15 10.05 18.58 18.27 173.68 169.08 - 0.73 - 1.39 9.53 5.03 10.26 5.75 13.52 7.96
Finfish 10.77 16.91 160.45 10.05 18.13 17.83 169.46 165.00 - 0.73 - 1.39 9.01 4.65 9.74 5.38 12.93 7.44
Marine fish 12.24 116.13 13.15 12.96 122.97 119.91 6.84 3.84 6.84 3.84
F&D fish 10.77 4.67 44.31 10.05 4.97 4.87 46.49 45.10 - 0.73 - 1.39 2.17 0.81 2.90 1.54 3.75 1.46
Belarus Shellfish 0.39 3.71 0.45 0.44 4.23 4.08 0.52 0.38 0.52 0.38
Crustaceans 0.18 1.72 0.21 0.20 1.94 1.88 0.23 0.17 0.23 0.17
Molluscs 0.21 1.99 0.24 0.24 2.28 2.20 0.29 0.21 0.29 0.21
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.10 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Cephalopods 0.20 1.90 0.23 0.23 2.18 2.10 0.28 0.20 0.28 0.20
71
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
72

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.21 24.92 282.46 0.21 27.26 26.77 317.78 309.43 35.31 27.11 35.31 27.11 179.48 165.18
Finfish 0.21 18.89 214.08 0.21 20.24 19.91 235.99 230.14 21.91 16.16 21.91 16.16 154.21 139.37
Marine fish 12.33 139.78 13.25 13.05 154.47 150.87 14.70 11.16 14.70 11.16
F&D fish 0.21 6.55 74.30 0.21 6.99 6.86 81.51 79.26 7.21 5.00 7.21 5.00 104.33 90.35
Belgium Shellfish 6.03 68.38 7.02 6.86 81.79 79.30 13.40 10.95 13.40 10.95
Crustaceans 2.03 23.01 2.38 2.33 27.69 26.92 4.68 3.92 4.68 3.92
Molluscs 4.00 45.37 4.64 4.53 54.09 52.38 8.72 7.03 8.72 7.03
Shell molluscs 3.75 42.51 4.34 4.24 50.63 49.03 8.12 6.54 8.12 6.54
Cephalopods 0.25 2.87 0.30 0.29 3.47 3.35 0.60 0.49 0.60 0.49
Fish 8.26 13.25 4.81 10.78 14.56 14.33 5.85 5.69 2.53 5.48 1.04 0.89 - 1.48 - 1.64 241.87 285.30 2.41 2.06
Finfish 0.27 7.30 2.65 0.27 7.74 7.64 3.11 3.03 0.46 0.38 0.46 0.38 22.09 19.37
Marine fish 0.21 7.10 2.58 0.21 7.54 7.43 3.03 2.95 0.45 0.38 0.45 0.38 25.52 22.52
F&D fish 0.06 0.20 0.07 0.06 0.21 0.20 0.08 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 3.74 2.95
Belize Shellfish 7.99 5.94 2.16 10.51 6.81 6.69 2.74 2.66 2.53 5.65 0.58 0.50 - 1.94 - 2.02 433.66 503.76 1.42 1.22
Crustaceans 7.99 2.63 0.95 10.51 3.04 2.99 1.22 1.19 2.53 5.65 0.27 0.24 - 2.26 - 2.29 940.26 1 071.04 0.66 0.58
Molluscs 3.32 1.20 3.78 3.70 1.52 1.47 0.31 0.27 0.31 0.27
Shell molluscs 3.29 1.19 3.74 3.66 1.50 1.45 0.31 0.26 0.31 0.26
Cephalopods 0.03 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 1.36 12.88 141.97 2.31 14.84 14.26 185.74 176.83 0.94 11.07 43.78 34.94 42.83 34.00 2.15 2.70 101.34 92.76
Finfish 1.36 12.55 138.40 2.31 14.42 13.87 180.46 171.88 0.94 11.07 42.06 33.56 41.12 32.61 2.24 2.81 99.79 91.26
Marine fish 7.59 83.65 8.86 8.56 110.86 106.06 27.21 22.45 27.21 22.45
F&D fish 1.36 4.97 54.75 2.31 5.56 5.31 69.61 65.82 0.94 11.07 14.86 11.10 13.92 10.16 6.34 8.48 64.07 55.66
Benin Shellfish 0.32 3.57 0.42 0.40 5.28 4.95 1.71 1.39 1.71 1.39
Crustaceans 0.32 3.55 0.42 0.40 5.26 4.93 1.71 1.38 1.71 1.38
Molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Cephalopods
Fish 0.13 6.26 4.88 0.21 7.92 7.36 6.50 5.97 0.07 9.16 1.63 1.10 1.55 1.02 4.52 6.70 67.49 55.91
Finfish 0.13 6.25 4.87 0.21 7.91 7.35 6.50 5.96 0.07 9.16 1.62 1.10 1.55 1.02 4.53 6.71 67.42 55.85
Marine fish 4.30 3.35 5.54 5.17 4.55 4.20 1.20 0.85 1.20 0.85
F&D fish 0.13 1.95 1.52 0.21 2.38 2.18 1.95 1.77 0.07 9.16 0.43 0.25 0.36 0.18 17.13 29.58 33.32 23.38
Bhutan Shellfish 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Crustaceans 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 1.47 2.25 24.28 2.02 2.46 2.40 28.67 27.62 0.55 6.62 4.39 3.35 3.83 2.80 12.63 16.53 31.91 26.87
Finfish 1.47 2.23 24.13 2.02 2.45 2.38 28.46 27.42 0.55 6.62 4.33 3.31 3.78 2.76 12.79 16.75 31.67 26.65
Marine fish 1.43 15.46 1.58 1.55 18.41 17.79 2.95 2.34 2.95 2.34
F&D fish 1.47 0.80 8.67 2.02 0.86 0.84 10.05 9.63 0.55 6.62 1.38 0.97 0.83 0.42 40.09 57.15 14.21 10.69
Bolivia
(Plurinational Shellfish 0.01 0.16 0.02 0.02 0.21 0.20 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
State of)
Crustaceans 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Molluscs 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.14 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.11 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Cephalopods 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Fish 3.32 5.97 22.73 3.32 7.09 6.80 26.61 25.25 3.88 2.53 3.88 2.53 16.74 12.00
Finfish 3.27 5.39 20.51 3.27 6.27 6.02 23.51 22.37 3.00 1.87 3.00 1.87 13.90 9.45
Marine fish 0.13 3.36 12.79 0.13 3.97 3.82 14.88 14.21 2.08 1.42 2.08 1.42 76.64 64.51
F&D fish 3.14 2.03 7.72 3.14 2.30 2.20 8.64 8.16 0.92 0.45 0.92 0.45 5.25 2.69
Bosnia and
Herzegovina Shellfish 0.05 0.58 2.22 0.05 0.83 0.78 3.10 2.88 0.88 0.66 0.88 0.66 81.18 71.84
Crustaceans 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.10 0.09 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Molluscs 0.05 0.56 2.15 0.05 0.80 0.75 3.00 2.79 0.85 0.64 0.85 0.64 80.16 70.87
Shell molluscs 0.05 0.45 1.72 0.05 0.63 0.59 2.36 2.19 0.64 0.47 0.64 0.47 70.57 61.58
Cephalopods 0.11 0.43 0.17 0.16 0.64 0.60 0.21 0.17 0.21 0.17
Fish 2.78 6.34 3.10 2.99 7.67 7.32 1.33 0.99 1.33 0.99
Finfish 2.70 6.17 3.00 2.90 7.44 7.10 1.27 0.94 1.27 0.94
Marine fish 2.53 5.77 2.81 2.72 6.98 6.66 1.21 0.90 1.21 0.90
F&D fish 0.18 0.40 0.19 0.18 0.46 0.44 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.04
Botswana Shellfish 0.07 0.17 0.09 0.09 0.23 0.22 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Crustaceans 0.07 0.16 0.09 0.09 0.22 0.21 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 595.17 9.55 1 993.28 771.03 10.07 9.85 2 182.28 2 111.07 175.86 5.31 189.00 118.96 13.14 - 56.90 93.05 147.84 5.67 3.71
Finfish 502.38 8.81 1 839.36 670.81 9.25 9.05 2 004.30 1 939.07 168.44 5.95 164.94 100.79 - 3.49 - 67.65 102.12 167.12 5.84 3.72
Marine fish 4.90 1 022.05 5.14 5.04 1 114.32 1 079.83 92.26 58.37 92.26 58.37
F&D fish 502.38 3.92 817.30 670.81 4.11 4.01 889.98 859.24 168.44 5.95 72.68 42.42 - 95.75 - 126.02 231.74 397.07 2.74 1.63
Brazil Shellfish 92.79 0.74 153.93 100.22 0.82 0.80 177.98 172.00 7.42 1.55 24.06 18.17 16.63 10.74 30.86 40.87 4.72 3.64
Crustaceans 67.12 0.50 103.63 65.78 0.56 0.54 120.33 116.42 - 1.34 - 0.40 16.70 12.85 18.04 14.19 4.54 3.57
Molluscs 25.67 0.24 50.30 34.43 0.27 0.26 57.65 55.58 8.76 6.05 7.36 5.31 - 1.41 - 3.45 119.14 164.92 5.17 3.83
Shell molluscs 25.67 0.20 40.78 34.43 0.22 0.21 46.63 44.96 8.76 6.05 5.85 4.20 - 2.92 - 4.56 149.88 208.48 4.19 3.08
Cephalopods 0.05 9.51 0.05 0.05 11.02 10.62 1.51 1.11 1.51 1.11
73
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
74

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.73 47.50 20.23 0.96 62.77 58.90 28.44 26.39 0.23 5.58 8.20 6.18 7.97 5.95 2.77 3.68 65.04 56.76
Finfish 0.16 33.11 14.11 0.18 40.44 38.31 18.32 17.16 0.02 2.69 4.22 3.08 4.19 3.05 0.53 0.72 94.68 83.27
Marine fish 0.07 29.92 12.75 0.05 36.66 34.77 16.61 15.58 - 0.02 - 6.74 3.86 2.85 3.88 2.87 125.08 112.03
F&D fish 0.09 3.19 1.36 0.13 3.79 3.54 1.71 1.59 0.04 8.14 0.35 0.23 0.31 0.19 11.94 18.47 38.02 29.14
Brunei
Shellfish 0.57 14.38 6.13 0.78 22.33 20.58 10.11 9.22 0.21 6.32 3.99 3.10 3.78 2.90 5.15 6.62 51.40 45.00
Darussalam
Crustaceans 0.57 8.89 3.79 0.78 13.66 12.65 6.19 5.67 0.21 6.32 2.40 1.89 2.20 1.68 8.55 10.88 38.99 33.82
Molluscs 5.49 2.34 8.67 7.93 3.93 3.55 1.59 1.21 1.59 1.21
Shell molluscs 2.82 1.20 4.30 3.95 1.95 1.77 0.75 0.57 0.75 0.57
Cephalopods 2.67 1.14 4.37 3.98 1.98 1.78 0.84 0.65 0.84 0.65
Fish 12.29 6.91 49.25 17.34 7.97 7.67 54.65 52.16 5.06 7.13 5.41 2.94 0.35 - 2.12 93.50 172.22 7.56 4.38
Finfish 9.64 6.21 44.26 12.93 7.07 6.82 48.46 46.34 3.29 6.06 4.19 2.10 0.90 - 1.20 78.53 157.17 7.49 4.01
Marine fish 3.63 25.85 4.16 4.02 28.51 27.36 2.66 1.52 2.66 1.52
F&D fish 9.64 2.58 18.41 12.93 2.91 2.79 19.95 18.98 3.29 6.06 1.54 0.58 - 1.76 - 2.72 214.09 571.55 3.01 1.17
Bulgaria Shellfish 2.65 0.70 4.98 4.41 0.90 0.86 6.20 5.82 1.76 10.73 1.21 0.84 - 0.55 - 0.92 145.32 209.80 7.82 5.66
Crustaceans 0.03 0.31 2.24 0.05 0.41 0.39 2.80 2.65 0.02 11.13 0.56 0.41 0.54 0.39 3.49 4.82 83.73 72.85
Molluscs 2.62 0.39 2.75 4.36 0.49 0.47 3.39 3.18 1.74 10.72 0.65 0.43 - 1.09 - 1.31 269.03 404.20 4.51 3.09
Shell molluscs 2.62 0.29 2.07 4.36 0.37 0.35 2.52 2.36 1.74 10.72 0.45 0.30 - 1.29 - 1.45 383.67 589.27 3.24 2.16
Cephalopods 0.09 0.68 0.13 0.12 0.87 0.81 0.19 0.14 0.19 0.14
Fish 0.18 6.66 122.39 0.13 7.78 7.48 164.48 156.87 - 0.05 - 5.81 42.09 34.54 42.13 34.59 197.56 186.09
Finfish 0.18 6.61 121.38 0.13 7.70 7.42 162.95 155.44 - 0.05 - 5.81 41.57 34.13 41.62 34.17 196.83 185.40
Marine fish 5.58 102.47 6.55 6.31 138.47 132.33 36.00 29.91 36.00 29.91
F&D fish 0.18 1.03 18.91 0.13 1.16 1.10 24.48 23.11 - 0.05 - 5.81 5.57 4.22 5.62 4.26 99.67 89.25
Burkina Faso Shellfish 0.06 1.01 0.07 0.07 1.53 1.43 0.52 0.42 0.52 0.42
Crustaceans 0.05 0.90 0.06 0.06 1.37 1.28 0.47 0.38 0.47 0.38
Molluscs 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.15 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.15 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Cephalopods
Fish 0.23 1.92 21.88 0.39 2.07 2.01 27.59 26.60 0.16 11.08 5.72 4.73 5.56 4.57 2.79 3.37 91.51 84.69
Finfish 0.23 1.92 21.88 0.39 2.07 2.01 27.59 26.59 0.16 11.08 5.71 4.73 5.56 4.57 2.79 3.37 91.50 84.68
Marine fish 0.63 7.17 0.68 0.66 9.04 8.75 1.87 1.58 1.87 1.58
F&D fish 0.23 1.29 14.71 0.39 1.39 1.35 18.55 17.84 0.16 11.08 3.85 3.15 3.69 2.99 4.15 5.07 77.58 71.01
Burundi Shellfish 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Crustaceans 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 11.82 6.19 13.98 13.48 7.78 7.40 1.58 1.21 1.58 1.21
Finfish 10.61 5.56 12.41 12.00 6.90 6.59 1.34 1.03 1.34 1.03
Marine fish 10.57 5.54 12.36 11.95 6.87 6.56 1.34 1.03 1.34 1.03
F&D fish 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cabo Verde Shellfish 1.21 0.63 1.57 1.48 0.88 0.81 0.24 0.18 0.24 0.18
Crustaceans 0.33 0.18 0.44 0.41 0.24 0.23 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.05
Molluscs 0.87 0.46 1.14 1.07 0.63 0.59 0.18 0.13 0.18 0.13
Shell molluscs 0.62 0.32 0.79 0.74 0.44 0.41 0.12 0.08 0.12 0.08
Cephalopods 0.25 0.13 0.35 0.32 0.19 0.18 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.04
Fish 128.15 41.58 652.90 191.32 49.83 46.89 843.41 781.55 63.17 8.35 190.51 129.24 127.34 66.07 33.16 48.88 19.98 14.97
Finfish 123.94 39.73 623.89 185.09 47.00 44.26 795.53 737.82 61.15 8.35 171.64 114.48 110.49 53.34 35.63 53.41 18.98 13.98
Marine fish 0.58 5.60 87.97 0.85 6.81 6.49 115.32 108.13 0.27 7.80 27.35 20.24 27.08 19.97 0.97 1.31 116.84 104.47
F&D fish 123.36 34.13 535.91 184.24 40.18 37.77 680.21 629.68 60.88 8.35 144.29 94.24 83.41 33.36 42.19 64.60 16.76 12.02
Cambodia Shellfish 4.20 1.85 29.01 6.22 2.83 2.62 47.88 43.73 2.02 8.17 18.88 14.75 16.85 12.73 10.71 13.71 40.59 35.16
Crustaceans 0.37 0.89 13.91 0.49 1.34 1.25 22.67 20.84 0.12 5.94 8.76 6.94 8.64 6.82 1.39 1.76 90.36 82.07
Molluscs 3.84 0.96 15.10 5.74 1.49 1.37 25.21 22.90 1.90 8.38 10.11 7.81 8.21 5.91 18.79 24.33 29.46 24.87
Shell molluscs 3.84 0.51 8.05 5.74 0.77 0.71 13.01 11.85 1.90 8.38 4.96 3.80 3.06 1.90 38.32 49.97 18.05 14.77
Cephalopods 0.45 7.05 0.72 0.66 12.20 11.05 5.15 4.01 5.15 4.01
Fish 0.99 15.39 363.66 1.36 17.46 16.91 465.09 446.24 0.36 6.45 101.43 82.77 101.07 82.41 0.36 0.44 152.78 142.81
Finfish 0.99 14.74 348.34 1.36 16.65 16.14 443.57 425.83 0.36 6.45 95.22 77.67 94.86 77.31 0.38 0.47 149.63 139.78
Marine fish 10.81 255.55 12.27 11.92 326.84 314.49 71.29 59.07 71.29 59.07
F&D fish 0.99 3.93 92.79 1.36 4.38 4.22 116.72 111.34 0.36 6.45 23.93 18.60 23.57 18.24 1.52 1.96 90.54 81.58
Cameroon Shellfish 0.65 15.31 0.81 0.77 21.52 20.40 6.21 5.10 6.21 5.10
Crustaceans 0.64 15.24 0.80 0.77 21.42 20.31 6.18 5.08 6.18 5.08
Molluscs 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.10 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 154.12 22.49 812.16 143.65 25.15 24.34 949.49 910.34 - 10.47 - 1.40 137.34 98.58 147.81 109.06 13.59 10.40
Finfish 111.11 14.54 525.18 95.28 15.65 15.17 590.85 567.39 - 15.83 - 3.03 65.67 42.47 81.51 58.30 9.73 6.69
Marine fish 9.47 341.92 10.22 9.92 385.81 371.14 43.88 29.39 43.88 29.39
F&D fish 111.11 5.07 183.26 95.28 5.43 5.25 205.04 196.24 - 15.83 - 3.03 21.79 13.08 37.62 28.91 3.65 2.25
Canada Shellfish 43.01 7.95 286.98 48.37 9.50 9.17 358.64 342.95 5.36 2.38 71.66 56.12 66.30 50.76 7.48 9.55 21.67 18.18
Crustaceans 4.48 161.83 5.38 5.20 203.05 194.41 41.22 32.65 41.22 32.65
Molluscs 43.01 3.47 125.15 48.37 4.12 3.97 155.59 148.55 5.36 2.38 30.45 23.46 25.08 18.10 17.61 22.85 11.30 9.10
Shell molluscs 43.01 3.40 122.95 48.37 4.05 3.90 152.91 146.00 5.36 2.38 29.96 23.11 24.60 17.75 17.89 23.20 11.15 8.98
Cephalopods 0.06 2.20 0.07 0.07 2.68 2.55 0.48 0.35 0.48 0.35
75
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
76

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.14 8.74 43.27 0.14 10.00 9.57 54.61 51.75 11.34 8.50 11.34 8.50 141.43 128.07
Finfish 0.14 8.74 43.27 0.14 10.00 9.57 54.61 51.75 11.34 8.50 11.34 8.50 141.43 128.07
Marine fish 1.28 6.33 1.49 1.44 8.13 7.77 1.80 1.44 1.80 1.44
F&D fish 0.14 7.46 36.93 0.14 8.51 8.13 46.48 43.97 9.55 7.06 9.55 7.06 133.35 119.90
Central
African Shellfish
Republic
Crustaceans
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Fish 0.00 4.62 65.92 0.00 4.95 4.84 82.67 80.09 16.75 14.20 16.75 14.20 461.56 443.33
Finfish 0.00 4.62 65.91 0.00 4.95 4.84 82.66 80.08 16.75 14.20 16.75 14.20 461.55 443.32
Marine fish 0.06 0.91 0.07 0.07 1.15 1.12 0.24 0.21 0.24 0.21
F&D fish 0.00 4.56 65.00 0.00 4.89 4.77 81.51 78.96 16.51 13.99 16.51 13.99 459.91 441.67
Chad Shellfish 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Crustaceans 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Fish 1 329.63 12.52 225.91 1 790.08 14.39 13.99 272.32 262.21 460.45 6.13 46.42 36.43 - 414.03 - 424.02 992.00 1 264.05 0.69 0.54
Finfish 1 048.83 7.67 138.41 1 466.26 8.41 8.22 159.11 154.03 417.43 6.93 20.71 15.71 - 396.72 - 401.72 2 015.68 2 657.84 0.39 0.30
Marine fish 0.18 7.05 127.18 0.18 7.74 7.57 146.50 141.91 19.32 14.80 19.32 14.80 154.13 141.07
F&D fish 1 048.65 0.62 11.22 1 466.08 0.67 0.65 12.61 12.13 417.43 6.93 1.39 0.91 - 416.04 - 416.52 30 045.29 45 947.21 0.03 0.02
Chile Shellfish 280.80 4.85 87.50 323.81 5.98 5.77 113.21 108.17 43.02 2.89 25.71 20.72 - 17.31 - 22.30 167.34 207.61 1.77 1.43
Crustaceans 2.04 36.83 2.51 2.44 47.57 45.66 10.74 8.85 10.74 8.85
Molluscs 280.80 2.81 50.67 323.81 3.47 3.34 65.63 62.51 43.02 2.89 14.96 11.87 - 28.06 - 31.15 287.50 362.42 1.04 0.83
Shell molluscs 280.80 1.06 19.17 323.81 1.29 1.24 24.32 23.21 43.02 2.89 5.15 4.04 - 37.87 - 38.97 835.31 1 064.01 0.36 0.29
Cephalopods 1.75 31.50 2.18 2.10 41.31 39.31 9.81 7.83 9.81 7.83
Fish 47 856.28 37.78 52 111.72 58 586.84 54.49 48.77 76 536.14 67 829.42 10 730.56 4.13 24 424.42 15 746.29 13 693.86 5 015.72 43.93 68.15 8.60 5.85
Finfish 29 325.34 23.49 32 395.77 36 363.56 29.90 27.00 41 995.69 37 545.62 7 038.22 4.40 9 599.92 5 167.62 2 561.70 -1 870.60 73.32 136.20 5.83 3.30
Marine fish 1 330.56 5.30 7 302.90 1 757.41 6.45 5.89 9 066.95 8 189.86 426.85 5.72 1 764.05 890.96 1 337.21 464.12 24.20 47.91 18.39 10.80
F&D fish 27 994.78 18.19 25 092.87 34 606.16 23.44 21.11 32 928.73 29 355.76 6 611.38 4.33 7 835.87 4 276.66 1 224.49 -2 334.71 84.37 154.59 5.06 2.88
China Shellfish 18 530.94 14.30 19 715.95 22 223.28 24.59 21.78 34 540.46 30 283.80 3 692.34 3.70 14 824.51 10 578.66 11 132.16 6 886.32 24.91 34.90 12.47 9.45
Crustaceans 4 281.23 4.12 5 686.56 5 294.47 7.02 6.25 9 864.64 8 691.83 1 013.23 4.34 4 178.09 3 008.39 3 164.85 1 995.16 24.25 33.68 14.59 11.23
Molluscs 14 249.71 10.17 14 029.40 16 928.82 17.57 15.53 24 675.82 21 591.97 2 679.11 3.51 10 646.42 7 570.27 7 967.32 4 891.16 25.16 35.39 11.81 8.90
Shell molluscs 14 249.71 9.46 13 048.33 16 928.82 16.31 14.43 22 912.95 20 061.57 2 679.11 3.51 9 864.62 7 020.40 7 185.52 4 341.29 27.16 38.16 11.09 8.34
Cephalopods 0.71 981.07 1.26 1.10 1 762.87 1 530.40 781.80 549.87 781.80 549.87
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 3.92 65.42 478.68 3.92 76.84 74.49 582.54 558.85 103.86 80.43 103.86 80.43 94.04 84.76
Finfish 3.35 35.55 260.10 3.35 38.97 37.92 295.48 284.51 35.38 24.55 35.38 24.55 63.15 52.79
Marine fish 1.98 19.84 145.18 1.98 21.90 21.37 166.00 160.32 20.82 15.21 20.82 15.21 63.01 54.07
F&D fish 1.37 15.71 114.91 1.37 17.08 16.55 129.48 124.19 14.56 9.34 14.56 9.34 63.34 50.86
China, Hong
Shellfish 0.57 29.87 218.58 0.57 37.86 36.57 287.06 274.35 68.48 55.88 68.48 55.88 161.28 150.97
Kong SAR
Crustaceans 10.90 79.79 13.87 13.44 105.18 100.86 25.40 21.11 25.40 21.11
Molluscs 0.57 18.97 138.79 0.57 23.99 23.12 181.88 173.49 43.08 34.77 43.08 34.77 138.39 128.52
Shell molluscs 0.57 16.31 119.35 0.57 20.55 19.81 155.77 148.64 36.42 29.36 36.42 29.36 130.62 121.05
Cephalopods 2.66 19.44 3.44 3.31 26.11 24.84 6.66 5.41 6.66 5.41
Fish 53.92 31.95 56.03 55.94 35.77 35.27 3.82 3.35 3.82 3.35
Finfish 30.12 17.85 30.81 30.70 19.67 19.35 1.82 1.52 1.82 1.52
Marine fish 17.20 10.19 17.62 17.58 11.25 11.08 1.06 0.90 1.06 0.90
F&D fish 12.92 7.66 13.19 13.12 8.42 8.27 0.76 0.62 0.76 0.62
China, Macao
Shellfish 23.80 14.10 25.22 25.25 16.10 15.92 2.00 1.83 2.00 1.83
SAR
Crustaceans 9.40 5.57 9.97 9.99 6.37 6.30 0.80 0.73 0.80 0.73
Molluscs 14.40 8.53 15.25 15.25 9.74 9.62 1.21 1.10 1.21 1.10
Shell molluscs 11.88 7.04 12.56 12.57 8.02 7.92 0.99 0.89 0.99 0.89
Cephalopods 2.52 1.49 2.68 2.69 1.71 1.69 0.22 0.20 0.22 0.20
Fish 103.79 6.62 320.69 131.04 7.42 7.17 374.13 357.27 27.25 4.77 53.44 36.77 26.19 9.52 50.99 74.10 8.66 6.25
Finfish 98.36 6.31 305.62 125.61 7.01 6.78 353.48 337.78 27.25 5.01 47.85 32.33 20.60 5.08 56.95 84.28 8.25 5.85
Marine fish 0.21 2.97 143.76 0.34 3.36 3.26 169.13 162.42 0.12 9.66 25.37 18.75 25.25 18.62 0.49 0.66 160.85 145.68
F&D fish 98.14 3.34 161.86 125.27 3.66 3.52 184.35 175.36 27.13 5.00 22.48 13.59 - 4.64 - 13.54 120.65 199.65 4.21 2.63
Colombia Shellfish 5.44 0.31 15.06 5.44 0.41 0.39 20.65 19.49 5.59 4.44 5.59 4.44 15.19 12.68
Crustaceans 5.44 0.19 9.40 5.44 0.25 0.24 12.85 12.18 3.45 2.79 3.45 2.79 10.34 8.63
Molluscs 0.12 5.67 0.15 0.15 7.80 7.31 2.13 1.65 2.13 1.65
Shell molluscs 0.04 1.80 0.05 0.05 2.40 2.26 0.60 0.46 0.60 0.46
Cephalopods 0.08 3.87 0.11 0.10 5.39 5.05 1.53 1.19 1.53 1.19
Fish 16.01 12.77 17.26 16.85 15.41 14.90 2.64 2.14 2.64 2.14
Finfish 15.97 12.74 17.21 16.80 15.36 14.86 2.62 2.13 2.62 2.13
Marine fish 15.97 12.74 17.21 16.80 15.36 14.86 2.62 2.13 2.62 2.13
F&D fish
Comoros Shellfish 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Crustaceans 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
77
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
78

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.16 26.79 125.38 0.24 28.30 27.95 150.88 147.65 0.09 9.11 25.50 22.34 25.41 22.25 0.34 0.39 176.85 169.67
Finfish 0.16 26.53 124.20 0.24 28.02 27.68 149.39 146.20 0.09 9.11 25.19 22.07 25.10 21.99 0.34 0.39 176.18 169.03
Marine fish 18.25 85.44 19.32 19.11 103.01 100.95 17.57 15.56 17.57 15.56
F&D fish 0.16 8.28 38.76 0.24 8.70 8.57 46.38 45.25 0.09 9.11 7.62 6.51 7.54 6.43 1.13 1.32 118.08 111.48
Congo Shellfish 0.25 1.18 0.28 0.27 1.49 1.45 0.31 0.27 0.31 0.27
Crustaceans 0.22 1.01 0.24 0.24 1.28 1.24 0.26 0.23 0.26 0.23
Molluscs 0.04 0.17 0.04 0.04 0.21 0.21 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Shell molluscs 0.02 0.09 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Cephalopods 0.02 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Fish 2.82 4.95 388.85 2.69 5.60 5.39 512.40 489.54 - 0.13 - 0.93 123.55 100.88 123.68 101.01 113.99 105.69
Finfish 2.82 4.95 388.59 2.69 5.59 5.39 512.02 489.18 - 0.13 - 0.93 123.43 100.78 123.56 100.91 113.95 105.65
Marine fish 1.74 136.33 1.98 1.92 181.68 174.59 45.35 38.33 45.35 38.33
Congo, F&D fish 2.82 3.21 252.26 2.69 3.61 3.47 330.34 314.60 - 0.13 - 0.93 78.08 62.46 78.21 62.59 95.73 87.50
Democratic
Shellfish 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.35 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.10
Republic
of the Crustaceans 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.27 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.08
Molluscs 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Cephalopods 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 27.33 13.35 64.52 28.24 15.37 14.72 77.88 73.75 0.90 0.65 13.36 9.27 12.46 8.36 6.76 9.75 8.28 6.01
Finfish 24.63 11.72 56.64 25.75 13.14 12.60 66.55 63.15 1.12 0.89 9.91 6.54 8.79 5.42 11.30 17.13 7.00 4.82
Marine fish 2.41 5.54 26.77 4.58 6.32 6.09 31.99 30.52 2.17 13.73 5.22 3.76 3.05 1.59 41.59 57.72 25.96 20.72
F&D fish 22.22 6.18 29.87 21.17 6.82 6.51 34.55 32.63 - 1.05 - 0.97 4.69 2.77 5.74 3.83 3.90 2.38
Costa Rica Shellfish 2.71 1.63 7.88 2.49 2.24 2.12 11.33 10.60 - 0.22 - 1.65 3.45 2.73 3.66 2.94 17.85 14.95
Crustaceans 2.68 0.92 4.46 2.44 1.28 1.22 6.47 6.09 - 0.24 - 1.83 2.01 1.63 2.25 1.87 11.86 9.98
Molluscs 0.03 0.71 3.42 0.05 0.96 0.90 4.86 4.52 0.02 11.46 1.43 1.09 1.41 1.08 1.37 1.79 121.68 110.33
Shell molluscs 0.03 0.41 1.97 0.05 0.54 0.51 2.75 2.56 0.02 11.46 0.78 0.60 0.76 0.58 2.51 3.29 97.04 87.08
Cephalopods 0.30 1.46 0.42 0.39 2.11 1.96 0.65 0.50 0.65 0.50
Fish 12.47 19.07 80.70 13.43 22.22 21.54 92.31 88.68 0.96 1.50 11.60 8.01 10.64 7.05 8.28 11.99 14.06 10.43
Finfish 11.40 15.90 67.32 12.36 17.99 17.50 74.73 72.04 0.96 1.63 7.41 4.76 6.45 3.80 12.97 20.19 10.53 7.22
Marine fish 7.65 14.51 61.40 8.61 16.45 16.01 68.33 65.92 0.96 2.40 6.93 4.55 5.97 3.59 13.86 21.10 13.77 9.79
F&D fish 3.76 1.40 5.92 3.76 1.54 1.49 6.40 6.12 0.48 0.20 0.48 0.20 2.42 1.07
Croatia Shellfish 1.07 3.16 13.39 1.07 4.23 4.04 17.58 16.63 4.20 3.25 4.20 3.25 37.63 32.30
Crustaceans 0.52 2.20 0.66 0.64 2.75 2.62 0.55 0.42 0.55 0.42
Molluscs 1.07 2.64 11.19 1.07 3.57 3.40 14.83 14.01 3.64 2.83 3.64 2.83 34.60 29.60
Shell molluscs 1.07 0.76 3.22 1.07 0.98 0.93 4.06 3.84 0.84 0.62 0.84 0.62 12.31 9.66
Cephalopods 1.88 7.97 2.59 2.47 10.77 10.17 2.80 2.21 2.80 2.21
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 5.65 21.59 25.28 7.17 23.79 23.31 29.10 28.21 1.52 4.89 3.82 2.95 2.29 1.43 39.90 51.58 10.88 8.78
Finfish 5.63 14.84 17.38 7.13 15.88 15.60 19.42 18.88 1.50 4.83 2.04 1.51 0.54 0.01 73.61 99.25 6.37 4.87
Marine fish 5.58 9.09 10.65 7.08 9.82 9.67 12.01 11.71 1.50 4.87 1.37 1.07 - 0.13 - 0.43 109.76 140.20 4.48 3.57
F&D fish 0.05 5.75 6.73 0.05 6.05 5.92 7.40 7.17 0.67 0.44 0.67 0.44 68.71 56.31
Cyprus Shellfish 0.02 6.74 7.90 0.04 7.91 7.71 9.68 9.33 0.02 19.92 1.78 1.44 1.76 1.42 1.36 1.68 156.08 145.61
Crustaceans 0.02 2.82 3.30 0.04 3.29 3.22 4.03 3.90 0.02 19.92 0.73 0.60 0.70 0.58 3.33 4.03 114.57 106.70
Molluscs 3.93 4.60 4.62 4.49 5.65 5.44 1.06 0.84 1.06 0.84
Shell molluscs 0.83 0.97 0.94 0.92 1.15 1.11 0.18 0.14 0.18 0.14
Cephalopods 3.10 3.63 3.68 3.58 4.50 4.33 0.87 0.70 0.87 0.70
Fish 19.94 9.21 97.11 19.58 10.27 9.98 108.58 104.53 - 0.36 - 0.36 11.47 7.46 11.84 7.82 9.52 6.57
Finfish 19.94 8.72 91.94 19.58 9.67 9.40 102.25 98.51 - 0.36 - 0.36 10.31 6.61 10.67 6.97 8.69 5.89
Marine fish 5.27 55.53 5.87 5.73 62.10 59.99 6.57 4.49 6.57 4.49
F&D fish 19.94 3.45 36.41 19.58 3.80 3.68 40.15 38.51 - 0.36 - 0.36 3.74 2.12 4.10 2.48 3.50 2.04
Czech
Shellfish 0.49 5.17 0.60 0.57 6.33 6.02 1.16 0.85 1.16 0.85
Republic
Crustaceans 0.20 2.09 0.24 0.24 2.58 2.46 0.50 0.38 0.50 0.38
Molluscs 0.29 3.08 0.35 0.34 3.75 3.55 0.67 0.47 0.67 0.47
Shell molluscs 0.27 2.85 0.33 0.31 3.46 3.28 0.61 0.43 0.61 0.43
Cephalopods 0.02 0.23 0.03 0.03 0.29 0.27 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.04
Fish 5.04 15.16 348.43 7.68 19.05 18.04 492.88 462.37 2.63 8.77 144.45 114.12 141.81 111.48 1.82 2.31 96.95 88.22
Finfish 5.04 15.11 347.12 7.68 18.97 17.97 490.69 460.37 2.63 8.77 143.57 113.44 140.94 110.80 1.83 2.32 96.72 88.01
Marine fish 14.62 335.84 18.39 17.42 475.67 446.50 139.83 110.84 139.83 110.84
F&D fish 5.04 0.49 11.28 7.68 0.58 0.54 15.02 13.88 2.63 8.77 3.74 2.60 1.11 - 0.03 70.36 101.30 11.74 8.67
Côte d’Ivoire Shellfish 0.06 1.32 0.08 0.08 2.19 1.99 0.88 0.68 0.88 0.68
Crustaceans 0.05 1.24 0.08 0.07 2.06 1.88 0.83 0.64 0.83 0.64
Molluscs 0.00 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.13 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.09 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Cephalopods 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Fish 38.56 23.14 131.43 42.72 26.44 25.89 153.01 148.51 4.16 2.07 21.58 17.14 17.42 12.98 19.28 24.28 9.30 7.63
Finfish 37.78 16.47 93.57 42.07 18.24 17.91 105.57 102.74 4.29 2.17 11.99 9.21 7.71 4.92 35.76 46.58 5.67 4.46
Marine fish 0.01 15.73 89.34 0.01 17.43 17.12 100.89 98.22 0.00 6.75 11.55 8.91 11.55 8.91 0.03 0.04 314.65 293.73
F&D fish 37.77 0.74 4.23 42.06 0.81 0.79 4.67 4.52 4.28 2.17 0.44 0.29 - 3.84 - 3.99 967.64 1 467.69 0.23 0.15
Denmark Shellfish 0.78 6.66 37.85 0.65 8.20 7.98 47.44 45.77 - 0.13 - 3.51 9.59 7.93 9.72 8.06 67.97 62.22
Crustaceans 5.34 30.31 6.60 6.43 38.21 36.90 7.90 6.60 7.90 6.60
Molluscs 0.78 1.33 7.54 0.65 1.60 1.55 9.23 8.87 - 0.13 - 3.51 1.69 1.33 1.82 1.46 26.07 22.11
Shell molluscs 0.78 1.28 7.28 0.65 1.54 1.49 8.91 8.56 - 0.13 - 3.51 1.63 1.28 1.76 1.41 25.45 21.56
Cephalopods 0.05 0.26 0.06 0.05 0.32 0.31 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
79
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
80

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 3.79 3.39 4.48 4.24 4.27 3.99 0.88 0.61 0.88 0.61
Finfish 3.72 3.32 4.38 4.14 4.17 3.90 0.85 0.58 0.85 0.58
Marine fish 3.71 3.31 4.37 4.13 4.16 3.89 0.85 0.58 0.85 0.58
F&D fish 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Djibouti Shellfish 0.07 0.06 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Crustaceans 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Molluscs 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Shell molluscs 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Cephalopods 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 0.01 20.46 1.49 0.01 23.32 22.74 1.74 1.68 0.24 0.19 0.24 0.19 110.82 100.64
Finfish 0.01 20.17 1.47 0.01 22.95 22.38 1.71 1.66 0.24 0.18 0.24 0.18 117.30 106.71
Marine fish 20.04 1.46 22.82 22.25 1.70 1.65 0.24 0.18 0.24 0.18
F&D fish 0.01 0.12 0.01 0.01 0.13 0.13 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.61 1.17
Dominica Shellfish 0.00 0.29 0.02 0.00 0.37 0.36 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 50.13 44.91
Crustaceans 0.00 0.28 0.02 0.00 0.36 0.34 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 48.83 43.75
Molluscs 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 2.21 8.18 86.67 3.36 9.85 9.51 109.91 104.95 1.15 8.72 23.24 18.33 22.10 17.19 4.94 6.26 63.01 56.17
Finfish 1.96 7.19 76.08 3.10 8.46 8.20 94.47 90.45 1.15 9.66 18.39 14.42 17.25 13.27 6.24 7.96 59.73 52.94
Marine fish 0.34 6.84 72.39 0.34 8.09 7.84 90.31 86.51 17.91 14.16 17.91 14.16 121.40 111.45
F&D fish 1.61 0.35 3.69 2.76 0.37 0.36 4.17 3.94 1.15 11.34 0.48 0.26 - 0.67 - 0.89 239.51 448.54 5.33 2.99
Dominican
Shellfish 0.25 1.00 10.58 0.25 1.38 1.31 15.43 14.49 4.85 3.92 4.85 3.92 82.16 74.95
Republic
Crustaceans 0.25 0.60 6.35 0.25 0.83 0.79 9.27 8.74 2.92 2.39 2.92 2.39 65.65 59.75
Molluscs 0.40 4.23 0.55 0.52 6.16 5.75 1.93 1.52 1.93 1.52
Shell molluscs 0.30 3.17 0.41 0.39 4.60 4.30 1.43 1.13 1.43 1.13
Cephalopods 0.10 1.06 0.14 0.13 1.56 1.45 0.50 0.39 0.50 0.39
Fish 411.06 8.20 133.38 553.39 7.90 8.02 137.94 138.49 142.33 6.13 4.56 5.18 - 137.77 - 137.15 3 121.17 2 748.01 0.22 0.25
Finfish 24.58 5.20 84.57 14.60 5.07 5.13 88.56 88.59 - 9.98 - 9.89 3.99 4.07 13.97 14.05 3.05 3.11
Marine fish 3.70 60.25 3.61 3.65 62.96 62.98 2.72 2.77 2.72 2.77
F&D fish 24.58 1.50 24.33 14.60 1.47 1.48 25.60 25.61 - 9.98 - 9.89 1.28 1.30 11.26 11.28 1.02 1.03
Ecuador Shellfish 386.48 3.00 48.81 538.79 2.83 2.89 49.38 49.89 152.31 6.87 0.57 1.11 - 151.74 - 151.20 26 772.94 13 691.34 0.03 0.06
Crustaceans 386.48 2.93 47.65 538.79 2.76 2.82 48.20 48.71 152.31 6.87 0.55 1.08 - 151.76 - 151.23 27 578.69 14 076.54 0.03 0.06
Molluscs 0.07 1.16 0.07 0.07 1.18 1.19 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.03
Shell molluscs 0.05 0.86 0.05 0.05 0.87 0.88 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02
Cephalopods 0.02 0.30 0.02 0.02 0.30 0.31 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 1 288.56 20.71 1 914.85 1 688.67 23.98 22.60 2 431.06 2 267.46 400.12 5.56 516.21 353.74 116.09 - 46.37 77.51 113.11 6.97 4.97
Finfish 1 280.10 20.09 1 857.54 1 672.97 23.16 21.84 2 348.03 2 190.83 392.87 5.50 490.49 334.39 97.61 - 58.48 80.10 117.49 6.70 4.75
Marine fish 128.42 7.06 652.41 89.11 8.06 7.64 817.35 766.34 - 39.32 - 7.05 164.95 114.32 204.27 153.64 17.97 13.58
F&D fish 1 151.68 13.04 1 205.13 1 583.87 15.10 14.20 1 530.67 1 424.49 432.19 6.58 325.54 220.07 - 106.65 - 212.12 132.76 196.39 5.10 3.56
Egypt Shellfish 8.46 0.62 57.31 15.70 0.82 0.76 83.03 76.63 7.24 13.18 25.72 19.35 18.48 12.11 28.16 37.43 32.23 26.89
Crustaceans 8.46 0.41 37.80 15.70 0.54 0.50 54.75 50.66 7.24 13.18 16.95 12.88 9.71 5.64 42.73 56.24 24.61 20.34
Molluscs 0.21 19.51 0.28 0.26 28.28 25.97 8.77 6.47 8.77 6.47
Shell molluscs 0.07 6.32 0.08 0.08 8.62 7.92 2.30 1.60 2.30 1.60
Cephalopods 0.14 13.19 0.19 0.18 19.67 18.05 6.48 4.87 6.48 4.87
Fish 2.35 7.05 43.25 2.85 7.83 7.62 48.85 46.95 0.50 3.95 5.60 3.73 5.09 3.22 8.98 13.49 27.58 20.92
Finfish 1.18 6.52 40.00 1.15 7.15 6.97 44.65 42.94 - 0.03 - 0.57 4.65 2.97 4.68 3.00 37.58 28.54
Marine fish 0.00 5.51 33.79 0.00 6.07 5.92 37.86 36.46 4.07 2.69 4.07 2.69 427.10 385.19
F&D fish 1.18 1.01 6.21 1.15 1.09 1.05 6.79 6.48 - 0.03 - 0.57 0.58 0.28 0.62 0.31 8.34 4.36
El Salvador Shellfish 1.17 0.53 3.25 1.70 0.67 0.65 4.20 4.01 0.54 7.85 0.95 0.76 0.41 0.22 56.73 70.81 12.59 10.51
Crustaceans 1.15 0.46 2.84 1.68 0.59 0.57 3.68 3.52 0.53 7.88 0.83 0.67 0.30 0.14 63.53 78.71 11.54 9.66
Molluscs 0.02 0.07 0.41 0.03 0.08 0.08 0.52 0.49 0.01 5.83 0.11 0.08 0.10 0.08 5.78 7.64 46.11 39.50
Shell molluscs 0.02 0.03 0.21 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.26 0.25 0.01 5.83 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.03 12.04 15.98 30.04 24.97
Cephalopods 0.03 0.20 0.04 0.04 0.26 0.24 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.04
Fish 0.02 23.27 19.95 0.03 21.03 21.69 20.69 21.15 0.01 7.44 0.74 1.21 0.73 1.20 1.16 0.71 107.13 128.08
Finfish 0.02 23.04 19.76 0.03 20.84 21.49 20.50 20.95 0.01 7.44 0.75 1.21 0.74 1.20 1.15 0.71 107.57 128.09
Marine fish 21.63 18.55 19.54 20.15 19.23 19.65 0.68 1.11 0.68 1.11
F&D fish 0.02 1.41 1.21 0.03 1.29 1.34 1.27 1.30 0.01 7.44 0.06 0.10 0.05 0.09 13.95 8.91 32.56 42.34
Equatorial
Shellfish 0.23 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.19 - 0.01 - 0.00 - 0.01 - 0.00 100.00 100.00
Guinea
Crustaceans 0.15 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13 - 0.00 0.00 - 0.00 0.00 100.00
Molluscs 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.07 - 0.00 - 0.00 - 0.00 - 0.00 100.00 100.00
Shell molluscs 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 - 0.00 0.00 - 0.00 0.00 100.00
Cephalopods 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 - 0.00 - 0.00 - 0.00 - 0.00
Fish 0.53 2.80 0.57 0.56 3.40 3.29 0.60 0.49 0.60 0.49
Finfish 0.50 2.66 0.54 0.53 3.22 3.11 0.56 0.45 0.56 0.45
Marine fish 0.50 2.65 0.54 0.53 3.20 3.10 0.55 0.45 0.55 0.45
F&D fish 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Eritrea Shellfish 0.03 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.18 0.17 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Crustaceans 0.02 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.17 0.17 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
81
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
82

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.83 14.33 18.78 1.09 17.01 16.44 21.99 21.07 0.25 5.42 3.21 2.30 2.96 2.05 7.85 10.95 37.11 30.30
Finfish 0.83 12.46 16.34 1.09 14.47 14.02 18.71 17.97 0.25 5.42 2.37 1.64 2.12 1.39 10.62 15.35 30.90 24.30
Marine fish 9.94 13.03 11.61 11.28 15.02 14.45 1.99 1.43 1.99 1.43
F&D fish 0.83 2.53 3.31 1.09 2.85 2.75 3.69 3.52 0.25 5.42 0.38 0.21 0.13 - 0.04 66.20 119.45 7.80 4.61
Estonia Shellfish 0.00 1.86 2.44 0.00 2.54 2.42 3.28 3.10 0.84 0.66 0.84 0.66 404.45 380.73
Crustaceans 0.00 1.20 1.57 0.00 1.65 1.58 2.14 2.03 0.57 0.46 0.57 0.46 366.78 347.31
Molluscs 0.67 0.87 0.88 0.84 1.14 1.07 0.27 0.20 0.27 0.20
Shell molluscs 0.28 0.37 0.37 0.35 0.48 0.45 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.08
Cephalopods 0.39 0.51 0.51 0.48 0.66 0.62 0.16 0.12 0.16 0.12
Fish 0.08 0.24 24.56 0.14 0.28 0.27 32.12 29.86 0.05 10.44 7.56 5.31 7.50 5.26 0.71 1.01 146.68 130.12
Finfish 0.08 0.24 24.52 0.14 0.28 0.27 32.05 29.80 0.05 10.44 7.53 5.29 7.48 5.24 0.71 1.02 146.50 129.94
Marine fish 0.01 1.08 0.01 0.01 1.41 1.33 0.33 0.25 0.33 0.25
F&D fish 0.08 0.23 23.44 0.14 0.27 0.25 30.64 28.47 0.05 10.44 7.20 5.05 7.15 4.99 0.75 1.07 144.33 127.79
Ethiopia Shellfish 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Crustaceans 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 0.20 36.13 32.34 0.20 44.36 42.84 40.68 38.88 - 0.00 - 0.24 8.35 6.56 8.35 6.56 110.91 101.25
Finfish 0.18 35.04 31.36 0.18 42.84 41.40 39.29 37.57 - 0.00 - 0.27 7.93 6.23 7.93 6.23 113.33 103.54
Marine fish 33.91 30.35 41.64 40.25 38.18 36.53 7.83 6.20 7.83 6.20
F&D fish 0.18 1.13 1.01 0.18 1.21 1.15 1.11 1.04 - 0.00 - 0.27 0.09 0.03 0.10 0.03 8.59 3.06
Fiji Shellfish 0.02 1.09 0.97 0.02 1.52 1.44 1.39 1.30 0.42 0.33 0.42 0.33 83.29 75.18
Crustaceans 0.02 0.75 0.67 0.02 1.05 0.99 0.96 0.90 0.29 0.23 0.29 0.23 71.11 64.17
Molluscs 0.34 0.30 0.47 0.44 0.43 0.40 0.13 0.10 0.13 0.10
Shell molluscs 0.22 0.19 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06
Cephalopods 0.12 0.11 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Fish 13.20 36.17 199.43 14.10 39.42 38.73 220.48 214.75 0.90 1.32 21.05 15.41 20.16 14.52 4.26 5.82 21.01 16.74
Finfish 13.20 33.62 185.36 14.10 36.38 35.75 203.45 198.23 0.90 1.32 18.09 12.95 17.19 12.06 4.96 6.93 18.84 14.66
Marine fish 18.38 101.34 20.06 19.76 112.17 109.57 10.83 8.27 10.83 8.27
F&D fish 13.20 15.24 84.02 14.10 16.32 15.99 91.28 88.67 0.90 1.32 7.26 4.68 6.36 3.78 12.36 19.18 9.16 6.26
Finland Shellfish 2.55 14.07 3.04 2.98 17.03 16.52 2.96 2.46 2.96 2.46
Crustaceans 2.17 11.96 2.60 2.54 14.53 14.11 2.57 2.16 2.57 2.16
Molluscs 0.38 2.11 0.45 0.43 2.50 2.41 0.39 0.31 0.39 0.31
Shell molluscs 0.37 2.02 0.43 0.42 2.39 2.31 0.37 0.29 0.37 0.29
Cephalopods 0.02 0.09 0.02 0.02 0.10 0.10 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 203.04 33.71 2 175.59 203.16 38.03 36.76 2 503.73 2 399.74 0.12 0.01 328.14 225.11 328.02 224.99 0.04 0.05 21.21 16.09
Finfish 46.68 23.06 1 488.41 46.80 25.14 24.36 1 655.51 1 590.46 0.12 0.05 167.10 102.71 166.98 102.58 0.07 0.12 35.57 26.19
Marine fish 5.57 18.80 1 213.20 5.69 20.56 19.94 1 353.67 1 301.82 0.12 0.43 140.47 89.16 140.35 89.04 0.09 0.14 92.16 76.23
F&D fish 41.11 4.26 275.21 41.11 4.58 4.42 301.84 288.64 26.63 13.55 26.63 13.55 10.50 5.86
France Shellfish 156.36 10.65 687.18 156.36 12.88 12.40 848.22 809.28 161.04 122.40 161.04 122.40 15.21 12.26
Crustaceans 0.04 3.69 238.06 0.04 4.45 4.29 293.01 279.98 54.95 42.02 54.95 42.02 327.41 305.09
Molluscs 156.32 6.96 449.12 156.32 8.43 8.11 555.21 529.30 106.09 80.38 106.09 80.38 10.92 8.65
Shell molluscs 156.32 6.48 417.90 156.32 7.84 7.54 516.52 492.53 98.62 74.81 98.62 74.81 10.28 8.14
Cephalopods 0.48 31.22 0.59 0.56 38.69 36.78 7.47 5.57 7.47 5.57
Fish 0.05 36.10 62.95 0.05 41.14 39.83 79.67 76.38 16.72 13.46 16.72 13.46 224.86 211.13
Finfish 0.05 35.78 62.40 0.05 40.74 39.45 78.89 75.64 16.48 13.27 16.48 13.27 223.95 210.25
Marine fish 29.20 50.92 33.35 32.34 64.57 62.02 13.66 11.13 13.66 11.13
F&D fish 0.05 6.59 11.48 0.05 7.39 7.10 14.31 13.62 2.83 2.14 2.83 2.14 128.31 116.22
Gabon Shellfish 0.31 0.55 0.40 0.38 0.78 0.74 0.24 0.19 0.24 0.19
Crustaceans 0.12 0.21 0.15 0.15 0.30 0.28 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07
Molluscs 0.19 0.34 0.25 0.24 0.49 0.46 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.12
Shell molluscs 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Cephalopods 0.18 0.31 0.23 0.22 0.45 0.42 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.11
Fish 0.04 23.85 48.24 0.05 26.55 25.92 62.71 60.65 0.01 4.90 14.46 12.43 14.45 12.42 0.07 0.09 226.44 216.72
Finfish 0.02 22.91 46.35 0.03 25.43 24.83 60.06 58.11 0.01 9.20 13.70 11.78 13.69 11.77 0.08 0.09 272.53 261.47
Marine fish 20.49 41.46 22.81 22.30 53.88 52.18 12.42 10.74 12.42 10.74
F&D fish 0.02 2.42 4.89 0.03 2.62 2.54 6.18 5.93 0.01 9.20 1.29 1.04 1.27 1.03 0.82 1.01 132.68 123.26
Gambia Shellfish 0.02 0.93 1.89 0.02 1.12 1.08 2.65 2.53 0.76 0.65 0.76 0.65 108.26 101.65
Crustaceans 0.89 1.79 1.07 1.03 2.52 2.41 0.72 0.61 0.72 0.61
Molluscs 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.13 0.13 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03 25.11 22.04
Shell molluscs 0.02 0.02
Cephalopods 0.05 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.13 0.13 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Fish 0.75 11.29 45.06 0.96 13.40 12.88 53.25 50.68 0.21 4.94 8.18 5.64 7.98 5.44 2.51 3.64 63.95 53.35
Finfish 0.75 11.08 44.20 0.96 13.10 12.61 52.09 49.62 0.21 4.94 7.89 5.44 7.68 5.23 2.61 3.78 62.85 52.34
Marine fish 10.57 42.19 12.54 12.07 49.84 47.50 7.65 5.33 7.65 5.33
F&D fish 0.75 0.51 2.02 0.96 0.57 0.54 2.25 2.12 0.21 4.94 0.23 0.10 0.03 - 0.10 87.85 197.64 5.55 2.62
Georgia Shellfish 0.22 0.86 0.29 0.27 1.15 1.07 0.29 0.21 0.29 0.21
Crustaceans 0.04 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.20 0.19 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Molluscs 0.18 0.71 0.24 0.22 0.95 0.88 0.24 0.16 0.24 0.16
Shell molluscs 0.18 0.70 0.23 0.22 0.93 0.86 0.23 0.16 0.23 0.16
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
83
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
84

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 25.89 12.89 1 040.20 25.89 14.21 13.90 1 141.58 1 107.28 101.38 67.54 101.38 67.54 37.50 29.26
Finfish 20.06 11.46 924.83 20.06 12.48 12.22 1 002.54 973.28 77.71 48.85 77.71 48.85 37.27 27.99
Marine fish 7.10 572.81 7.75 7.61 623.07 606.08 50.26 33.52 50.26 33.52
F&D fish 20.06 4.36 352.03 20.06 4.72 4.61 379.47 367.20 27.45 15.33 27.45 15.33 18.82 12.02
Germany Shellfish 5.83 1.43 115.37 5.83 1.73 1.68 139.04 134.01 23.67 18.69 23.67 18.69 38.30 33.28
Crustaceans 0.84 68.06 1.02 1.00 82.20 79.40 14.14 11.38 14.14 11.38
Molluscs 5.83 0.59 47.31 5.83 0.71 0.69 56.84 54.61 9.53 7.31 9.53 7.31 21.38 17.66
Shell molluscs 5.83 0.36 29.03 5.83 0.43 0.42 34.62 33.29 5.59 4.27 5.59 4.27 14.39 11.63
Cephalopods 0.23 18.28 0.28 0.27 22.22 21.31 3.94 3.04 3.94 3.04
Fish 49.03 25.99 720.58 82.20 31.08 29.70 958.74 907.18 33.17 10.89 238.16 186.99 204.99 153.82 13.93 17.74 42.41 36.93
Finfish 49.03 25.78 714.79 82.20 30.79 29.43 949.67 898.86 33.17 10.89 234.87 184.45 201.70 151.28 14.12 17.98 42.08 36.63
Marine fish 20.98 581.49 25.28 24.22 779.66 739.75 198.17 158.57 198.17 158.57
F&D fish 49.03 4.81 133.30 82.20 5.51 5.21 170.01 159.11 33.17 10.89 36.71 25.88 3.54 - 7.29 90.37 128.17 11.83 8.85
Ghana Shellfish 0.21 5.79 0.29 0.27 9.07 8.32 3.29 2.54 3.29 2.54
Crustaceans 0.10 2.88 0.14 0.13 4.41 4.08 1.53 1.20 1.53 1.20
Molluscs 0.11 2.91 0.15 0.14 4.67 4.24 1.76 1.33 1.76 1.33
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.15 0.01 0.01 0.23 0.21 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06
Cephalopods 0.10 2.76 0.14 0.13 4.44 4.03 1.68 1.28 1.68 1.28
Fish 101.95 19.41 212.34 88.79 22.89 22.15 247.44 237.36 - 13.16 - 2.73 35.11 25.12 48.27 38.28 6.10 4.50
Finfish 86.65 14.52 158.76 75.75 16.38 15.93 177.04 170.68 - 10.90 - 2.65 18.28 11.99 29.19 22.90 3.90 2.63
Marine fish 84.45 12.51 136.78 73.54 14.17 13.79 153.14 147.80 - 10.90 - 2.73 16.36 11.08 27.27 21.99 3.61 2.50
F&D fish 2.20 2.01 21.98 2.20 2.21 2.14 23.90 22.88 1.92 0.91 1.92 0.91 13.35 7.17
Greece Shellfish 15.30 4.90 53.58 13.05 6.51 6.22 70.41 66.68 - 2.25 - 3.14 16.83 13.13 19.08 15.38 15.99 13.19
Crustaceans 0.01 1.27 13.91 0.01 1.62 1.55 17.49 16.66 3.58 2.76 3.58 2.76 234.23 217.21
Molluscs 15.29 3.63 39.67 13.04 4.89 4.67 52.91 50.02 - 2.25 - 3.14 13.24 10.37 15.50 12.62 13.29 10.91
Shell molluscs 15.29 0.95 10.39 13.04 1.22 1.16 13.15 12.46 - 2.25 - 3.14 2.77 2.08 5.02 4.33 3.38 2.58
Cephalopods 2.68 29.29 3.68 3.51 39.76 37.56 10.47 8.29 10.47 8.29
Fish 28.38 3.04 32.18 31.52 3.52 3.40 0.49 0.37 0.49 0.37
Finfish 27.94 2.99 31.63 30.99 3.46 3.35 0.47 0.36 0.47 0.36
Marine fish 27.94 2.99 31.63 30.99 3.46 3.35 0.47 0.36 0.47 0.36
F&D fish
Grenada Shellfish 0.43 0.05 0.55 0.53 0.06 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Crustaceans 0.06 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Molluscs 0.38 0.04 0.48 0.46 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Shell molluscs 0.38 0.04 0.48 0.46 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Cephalopods
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 19.38 1.28 21.07 23.02 1.43 1.38 25.93 24.86 3.64 3.51 4.86 3.80 1.21 0.16 75.04 95.86 4.57 3.65
Finfish 10.55 1.07 17.62 17.42 1.16 1.13 21.12 20.28 6.87 10.55 3.50 2.67 - 3.37 - 4.20 196.06 257.08 5.90 4.62
Marine fish 0.54 8.92 0.60 0.58 10.82 10.43 1.90 1.52 1.90 1.52
F&D fish 10.55 0.53 8.69 17.42 0.57 0.55 10.30 9.85 6.87 10.55 1.60 1.16 - 5.27 - 5.71 428.51 593.76 2.87 2.10
Guatemala Shellfish 8.82 0.21 3.46 5.60 0.26 0.25 4.81 4.58 - 3.22 - 8.70 1.35 1.13 4.58 4.35 2.89 2.44
Crustaceans 8.82 0.14 2.31 5.60 0.18 0.17 3.23 3.09 - 3.22 - 8.70 0.92 0.78 4.15 4.01 2.01 1.71
Molluscs 0.07 1.15 0.09 0.08 1.58 1.49 0.43 0.35 0.43 0.35
Shell molluscs 0.04 0.68 0.05 0.05 0.93 0.88 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.20
Cephalopods 0.03 0.46 0.04 0.03 0.65 0.61 0.18 0.15 0.18 0.15
Fish 0.29 9.02 115.31 0.38 10.59 10.18 154.01 146.59 0.09 5.42 38.70 31.34 38.61 31.25 0.23 0.28 166.80 155.87
Finfish 0.29 9.02 115.31 0.38 10.59 10.18 154.00 146.58 0.09 5.42 38.69 31.33 38.61 31.25 0.23 0.28 166.80 155.86
Marine fish 7.54 96.34 8.91 8.58 129.60 123.60 33.27 27.31 33.27 27.31
F&D fish 0.29 1.48 18.97 0.38 1.68 1.60 24.40 22.98 0.09 5.42 5.43 4.02 5.34 3.93 1.61 2.17 81.74 71.76
Guinea Shellfish 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Crustaceans 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Fish 1.36 2.53 1.59 1.53 3.33 3.18 0.80 0.65 0.80 0.65
Finfish 1.25 2.32 1.44 1.39 3.02 2.89 0.70 0.57 0.70 0.57
Marine fish 1.16 2.16 1.35 1.30 2.82 2.70 0.66 0.54 0.66 0.54
F&D fish 0.09 0.16 0.10 0.09 0.20 0.19 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Guinea-Bissau Shellfish 0.11 0.21 0.15 0.14 0.31 0.29 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.08
Crustaceans 0.03 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Molluscs 0.08 0.14 0.10 0.10 0.21 0.20 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods 0.08 0.14 0.10 0.10 0.21 0.20 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
Fish 0.28 32.72 25.16 0.33 38.85 37.52 30.65 29.27 0.05 3.01 5.49 4.12 5.44 4.07 0.83 1.10 82.75 73.12
Finfish 0.23 23.31 17.92 0.23 26.39 25.60 20.82 19.96 2.90 2.05 2.90 2.05 68.58 58.29
Marine fish 0.04 22.15 17.03 0.04 25.11 24.37 19.82 19.01 2.79 1.99 2.79 1.99 132.12 117.28
F&D fish 0.19 1.16 0.89 0.19 1.27 1.22 1.01 0.96 0.11 0.06 0.11 0.06 9.82 5.91
Guyana Shellfish 0.05 9.41 7.24 0.10 12.46 11.92 9.83 9.30 0.05 13.06 2.59 2.07 2.54 2.02 1.75 2.19 118.21 108.81
Crustaceans 0.05 9.41 7.24 0.10 12.46 11.92 9.83 9.30 0.05 13.06 2.59 2.07 2.54 2.02 1.75 2.19 118.21 108.81
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
85
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
86

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 1.00 4.78 51.56 1.55 5.39 5.26 61.63 59.55 0.55 9.11 10.07 8.03 9.53 7.48 5.42 6.81 61.77 55.29
Finfish 1.00 4.75 51.17 1.55 5.34 5.22 61.11 59.06 0.55 9.11 9.94 7.91 9.39 7.37 5.50 6.90 61.37 54.90
Marine fish 4.27 46.02 4.84 4.73 55.35 53.54 9.33 7.55 9.33 7.55
F&D fish 1.00 0.48 5.16 1.55 0.50 0.49 5.76 5.52 0.55 9.11 0.61 0.36 0.06 - 0.18 90.04 150.29 9.95 6.40
Haiti Shellfish 0.04 0.38 0.05 0.04 0.52 0.49 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.11
Crustaceans 0.03 0.36 0.04 0.04 0.49 0.47 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.11
Molluscs 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 93.08 4.11 33.42 145.60 4.81 4.64 41.89 39.90 52.52 9.36 8.47 6.51 - 44.05 - 46.02 619.99 807.27 1.76 1.36
Finfish 31.62 2.78 22.61 45.41 3.07 2.97 26.72 25.51 13.79 7.51 4.10 2.92 - 9.69 - 10.87 336.00 472.44 2.47 1.78
Marine fish 1.49 12.14 1.67 1.62 14.52 13.93 2.39 1.80 2.39 1.80
F&D fish 31.62 1.29 10.47 45.41 1.40 1.35 12.19 11.59 13.79 7.51 1.72 1.12 - 12.07 - 12.67 802.38 1 231.26 1.06 0.70
Honduras Shellfish 61.46 1.33 10.81 100.19 1.74 1.67 15.17 14.39 38.73 10.27 4.37 3.59 - 34.37 - 35.15 886.85 1 079.67 1.38 1.14
Crustaceans 61.46 1.12 9.10 100.19 1.47 1.42 12.83 12.18 38.73 10.27 3.74 3.09 - 35.00 - 35.64 1 036.52 1 252.53 1.19 0.99
Molluscs 0.21 1.71 0.27 0.26 2.34 2.21 0.63 0.50 0.63 0.50
Shell molluscs 0.20 1.62 0.25 0.24 2.22 2.09 0.60 0.47 0.60 0.47
Cephalopods 0.01 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.12 0.11 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Fish 15.47 5.11 50.27 16.05 5.74 5.55 55.48 53.18 0.58 0.74 5.21 2.93 4.62 2.35 11.18 19.88 5.97 3.53
Finfish 15.47 4.94 48.57 16.05 5.52 5.35 53.38 51.19 0.58 0.74 4.81 2.64 4.23 2.06 12.10 22.02 5.56 3.20
Marine fish 2.24 22.06 2.53 2.46 24.45 23.55 2.39 1.50 2.39 1.50
F&D fish 15.47 2.69 26.51 16.05 2.99 2.89 28.93 27.64 0.58 0.74 2.42 1.14 1.84 0.56 24.05 50.86 2.95 1.44
Hungary Shellfish 0.17 1.70 0.22 0.21 2.10 1.99 0.40 0.28 0.40 0.28
Crustaceans 0.09 0.88 0.11 0.11 1.09 1.03 0.21 0.16 0.21 0.16
Molluscs 0.08 0.83 0.10 0.10 1.01 0.95 0.19 0.13 0.19 0.13
Shell molluscs 0.06 0.63 0.08 0.08 0.77 0.72 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.09
Cephalopods 0.02 0.19 0.03 0.02 0.24 0.23 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Fish 10.01 93.34 30.85 15.04 107.38 104.90 36.88 35.67 5.03 8.48 6.04 4.87 1.01 - 0.16 83.33 103.38 9.90 8.24
Finfish 9.83 75.56 24.97 14.73 84.77 82.98 29.12 28.21 4.90 8.43 4.15 3.28 - 0.75 - 1.62 118.20 149.54 7.30 5.93
Marine fish 0.59 70.57 23.32 0.59 79.31 77.66 27.24 26.41 3.92 3.12 3.92 3.12 49.98 44.23
F&D fish 9.23 4.99 1.65 14.14 5.46 5.31 1.88 1.81 4.90 8.89 0.23 0.16 - 4.67 - 4.74 2 138.29 3 039.71 0.49 0.35
Iceland Shellfish 0.19 17.78 5.88 0.31 22.61 21.93 7.76 7.45 0.13 11.04 1.89 1.59 1.76 1.46 6.76 8.04 62.07 57.06
Crustaceans 17.10 5.65 21.77 21.12 7.48 7.18 1.83 1.54 1.83 1.54
Molluscs 0.19 0.68 0.22 0.31 0.84 0.81 0.29 0.27 0.13 11.04 0.06 0.05 - 0.06 - 0.08 203.43 255.49 6.00 4.89
Shell molluscs 0.19 0.68 0.22 0.31 0.84 0.81 0.29 0.27 0.13 11.04 0.06 0.05 - 0.06 - 0.08 203.43 255.49 6.00 4.89
Cephalopods
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 5 094.57 5.93 7 821.23 6 279.68 7.59 6.70 10 602.47 9 261.04 1 185.11 4.27 2 781.23 1 444.35 1 596.12 259.24 42.61 82.05 9.10 5.12
Finfish 4 617.07 5.58 7 355.45 5 535.62 7.00 6.19 9 771.39 8 548.09 918.56 3.70 2 415.95 1 196.91 1 497.39 278.36 38.02 76.74 8.78 4.72
Marine fish 84.14 1.45 1 909.13 92.58 1.73 1.55 2 417.04 2 138.61 8.44 1.93 507.92 230.59 499.48 222.15 1.66 3.66 47.73 30.19
F&D fish 4 532.92 4.13 5 446.32 5 443.04 5.27 4.64 7 354.35 6 409.48 910.12 3.73 1 908.03 966.32 997.91 56.21 47.70 94.18 7.28 3.94
India Shellfish 477.50 0.35 465.79 744.06 0.60 0.52 831.07 712.95 266.56 9.28 365.29 247.43 98.73 - 19.12 72.97 107.73 12.03 8.71
Crustaceans 466.70 0.34 449.33 736.42 0.58 0.50 806.63 692.25 269.72 9.55 357.31 243.19 87.58 - 26.54 75.49 110.91 12.04 8.75
Molluscs 10.80 0.01 16.46 7.64 0.02 0.01 24.44 20.70 - 3.17 - 6.70 7.98 4.25 11.15 7.42 11.70 6.86
Shell molluscs 10.80 0.01 16.01 7.64 0.02 0.01 23.72 20.10 - 3.17 - 6.70 7.71 4.09 10.88 7.26 11.37 6.64
Cephalopods 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.60 0.27 0.15 0.27 0.15
Fish 5 061.08 31.67 8 204.30 7 627.50 40.08 36.85 10 950.61 9 959.09 2 566.43 8.55 2 746.31 1 759.45 179.88 - 806.97 93.45 145.86 9.06 6.15
Finfish 4 360.56 28.22 7 310.26 6 631.79 34.74 32.01 9 489.20 8 651.02 2 271.24 8.75 2 178.95 1 344.93 - 92.29 - 926.31 104.24 168.87 8.44 5.52
Marine fish 24.23 17.88 4 633.48 15.11 22.13 20.49 6 046.82 5 537.61 - 9.12 - 9.01 1 413.33 906.76 1 422.45 915.88 126.29 107.46
F&D fish 4 336.33 10.33 2 676.77 6 616.69 12.60 11.52 3 442.39 3 113.42 2 280.36 8.82 765.62 438.17 -1 514.74 -1 842.19 297.85 520.43 3.31 1.94
Indonesia Shellfish 700.52 3.45 894.05 995.71 5.35 4.84 1 461.40 1 308.06 295.19 7.29 567.36 414.52 272.17 119.34 52.03 71.21 12.60 9.74
Crustaceans 700.52 2.87 742.24 995.71 4.46 4.04 1 217.75 1 092.01 295.19 7.29 475.51 350.19 180.32 55.00 62.08 84.29 10.92 8.45
Molluscs 0.59 151.80 0.89 0.80 243.65 216.05 91.85 64.34 91.85 64.34
Shell molluscs 0.22 57.69 0.31 0.28 85.53 76.02 27.84 18.36 27.84 18.36
Cephalopods 0.36 94.11 0.58 0.52 158.12 140.04 64.01 45.98 64.01 45.98
Fish 386.80 10.01 796.73 539.32 11.31 10.87 947.14 898.87 152.52 6.87 150.41 102.72 - 2.11 - 49.80 101.40 148.48 6.79 4.82
Finfish 363.43 9.84 782.69 500.50 11.08 10.65 927.95 880.89 137.08 6.61 145.27 98.77 8.19 - 38.31 94.36 138.78 6.96 4.93
Marine fish 4.78 380.52 5.47 5.29 458.09 437.13 77.57 56.89 77.57 56.89
F&D fish 363.43 5.05 402.16 500.50 5.61 5.37 469.86 443.75 137.08 6.61 67.70 41.88 - 69.38 - 95.19 202.48 327.28 3.48 2.21
Iran (Islamic
Shellfish 23.38 0.18 14.05 38.82 0.23 0.22 19.19 17.99 15.44 10.67 5.14 3.95 - 10.30 - 11.49 300.23 390.90 4.06 3.17
Republic of)
Crustaceans 23.38 0.14 11.44 38.82 0.18 0.18 15.50 14.56 15.44 10.67 4.05 3.13 - 11.39 - 12.31 380.93 493.67 3.25 2.54
Molluscs 0.03 2.60 0.04 0.04 3.69 3.42 1.09 0.82 1.09 0.82
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods 0.03 2.60 0.04 0.04 3.69 3.42 1.09 0.82 1.09 0.82
Fish 24.32 3.25 120.30 29.45 3.49 3.41 148.43 143.59 5.13 3.90 28.13 23.36 22.99 18.23 18.25 21.98 16.62 14.41
Finfish 24.32 3.23 119.64 29.45 3.47 3.39 147.52 142.72 5.13 3.90 27.88 23.14 22.75 18.01 18.41 22.18 16.50 14.31
Marine fish 0.85 1.03 38.06 0.85 1.13 1.11 47.90 46.56 9.83 8.52 9.83 8.52 65.91 61.61
F&D fish 23.47 2.21 81.58 28.60 2.34 2.28 99.62 96.16 5.13 4.04 18.04 14.62 12.91 9.49 28.45 35.10 12.08 10.17
Iraq Shellfish 0.02 0.66 0.02 0.02 0.91 0.87 0.25 0.22 0.25 0.22
Crustaceans 0.02 0.64 0.02 0.02 0.88 0.84 0.24 0.21 0.24 0.21
Molluscs 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
87
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
88

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 33.78 21.78 102.39 33.78 25.38 24.72 124.18 119.81 21.79 17.47 21.79 17.47 10.47 8.70
Finfish 11.21 17.22 80.96 11.21 19.52 19.07 95.52 92.42 14.56 11.51 14.56 11.51 18.11 15.17
Marine fish 16.09 75.63 18.27 17.85 89.39 86.53 13.76 10.94 13.76 10.94
F&D fish 11.21 1.13 5.33 11.21 1.25 1.22 6.14 5.89 0.80 0.56 0.80 0.56 1.39 0.98
Ireland Shellfish 22.57 4.56 21.43 22.57 5.86 5.65 28.66 27.39 7.23 5.97 7.23 5.97 5.71 4.80
Crustaceans 2.96 13.92 3.85 3.72 18.84 18.05 4.92 4.14 4.92 4.14
Molluscs 22.57 1.60 7.52 22.57 2.01 1.93 9.82 9.34 2.30 1.83 2.30 1.83 1.96 1.57
Shell molluscs 22.57 1.55 7.28 22.57 1.94 1.87 9.51 9.05 2.23 1.77 2.23 1.77 1.90 1.52
Cephalopods 0.05 0.23 0.06 0.06 0.30 0.29 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
Fish 21.76 22.98 186.77 23.41 24.82 24.33 218.03 211.73 1.65 1.47 31.26 25.05 29.61 23.40 5.27 6.58 19.50 16.56
Finfish 21.76 21.95 178.38 23.41 23.61 23.14 207.33 201.42 1.65 1.47 28.95 23.13 27.30 21.48 5.69 7.13 18.44 15.58
Marine fish 6.07 13.32 108.26 7.77 14.48 14.24 127.21 123.90 1.71 5.09 18.95 15.69 17.24 13.99 9.01 10.88 32.76 29.11
F&D fish 15.70 8.63 70.12 15.64 9.12 8.91 80.12 77.52 - 0.06 - 0.08 10.00 7.43 10.06 7.49 10.36 8.06
Israel Shellfish 1.03 8.40 1.22 1.19 10.71 10.31 2.31 1.92 2.31 1.92
Crustaceans 0.61 4.99 0.73 0.71 6.39 6.17 1.39 1.18 1.39 1.18
Molluscs 0.42 3.40 0.49 0.48 4.32 4.14 0.91 0.74 0.91 0.74
Shell molluscs 0.24 1.98 0.28 0.27 2.47 2.37 0.49 0.39 0.49 0.39
Cephalopods 0.17 1.42 0.21 0.20 1.85 1.77 0.43 0.35 0.43 0.35
Fish 164.61 25.59 1 530.09 168.86 28.92 27.95 1 726.99 1 655.96 4.25 0.51 196.90 126.50 192.65 122.24 2.16 3.36 17.04 12.08
Finfish 51.71 15.91 951.61 51.26 17.22 16.69 1 028.42 989.09 - 0.46 - 0.18 76.81 37.87 77.27 38.33 19.97 11.62
Marine fish 12.86 12.79 764.62 12.41 13.88 13.47 829.16 798.29 - 0.46 - 0.72 64.54 33.98 65.00 34.43 43.18 29.49
F&D fish 38.85 3.13 186.98 38.85 3.34 3.22 199.26 190.80 12.28 3.89 12.28 3.89 5.65 1.93
Italy Shellfish 112.89 9.67 578.48 117.60 11.70 11.25 698.57 666.87 4.71 0.82 120.09 88.63 115.38 83.92 3.92 5.31 15.59 12.29
Crustaceans 0.09 2.01 119.93 0.13 2.39 2.30 142.66 136.45 0.04 8.13 22.73 16.57 22.69 16.53 0.18 0.25 205.81 187.17
Molluscs 112.81 7.67 458.55 117.48 9.31 8.95 555.91 530.42 4.67 0.81 97.36 72.05 92.69 67.38 4.80 6.48 13.25 10.38
Shell molluscs 112.81 4.60 274.89 117.48 5.49 5.28 328.02 313.12 4.67 0.81 53.13 38.34 48.46 33.67 8.79 12.18 8.02 6.03
Cephalopods 3.07 183.66 3.82 3.67 227.89 217.30 44.23 33.71 44.23 33.71
Fish 0.75 24.09 67.40 0.75 27.71 27.03 78.80 75.95 11.39 8.59 11.39 8.59 74.62 65.67
Finfish 0.69 22.04 61.66 0.69 25.08 24.49 71.30 68.83 9.64 7.20 9.64 7.20 71.85 62.83
Marine fish 21.34 59.72 24.34 23.78 69.22 66.84 9.50 7.15 9.50 7.15
F&D fish 0.69 0.69 1.94 0.69 0.73 0.71 2.09 1.99 0.14 0.05 0.14 0.05 3.81 1.38
Jamaica Shellfish 0.06 2.05 5.74 0.06 2.64 2.53 7.50 7.12 1.75 1.39 1.75 1.39 98.58 89.77
Crustaceans 0.06 0.57 1.59 0.06 0.73 0.71 2.08 1.98 0.49 0.40 0.49 0.40 56.48 50.83
Molluscs 1.48 4.15 1.90 1.83 5.42 5.14 1.26 0.99 1.26 0.99
Shell molluscs 1.47 4.12 1.89 1.81 5.37 5.10 1.25 0.98 1.25 0.98
Cephalopods 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 627.98 48.66 6 153.28 627.98 54.56 53.01 6 811.12 6 565.96 657.84 415.21 657.84 415.21 15.41 10.68
Finfish 274.67 31.14 3 937.13 274.67 33.71 32.82 4 207.91 4 065.34 270.78 129.83 270.78 129.83 14.71 8.05
Marine fish 230.35 26.13 3 303.51 230.35 28.36 27.64 3 540.57 3 423.40 237.06 121.24 237.06 121.24 15.20 8.83
F&D fish 44.32 5.01 633.62 44.32 5.35 5.18 667.34 641.94 33.72 8.59 33.72 8.59 11.98 3.61
Japan Shellfish 353.32 17.53 2 216.15 353.32 20.85 20.19 2 603.21 2 500.62 387.06 285.38 387.06 285.38 15.95 12.57
Crustaceans 1.60 7.14 902.50 1.60 8.46 8.20 1 056.27 1 016.25 153.77 114.12 153.77 114.12 149.80 135.50
Molluscs 351.72 10.39 1 313.64 351.72 12.39 11.98 1 546.94 1 484.37 233.30 171.27 233.30 171.27 10.71 8.26
Shell molluscs 351.72 6.45 815.95 351.72 7.61 7.36 949.81 911.75 133.86 96.13 133.86 96.13 6.66 4.95
Cephalopods 3.94 497.69 4.78 4.62 597.12 572.62 99.44 75.14 99.44 75.14
Fish 0.95 5.33 40.87 1.34 5.98 5.83 49.06 47.37 0.40 7.28 8.19 6.53 7.79 6.13 4.86 6.10 57.41 51.21
Finfish 0.95 5.17 39.63 1.34 5.78 5.64 47.40 45.79 0.40 7.28 7.77 6.18 7.37 5.78 5.12 6.44 55.93 49.78
Marine fish 5.01 38.43 5.61 5.48 46.01 44.46 7.58 6.05 7.58 6.05
F&D fish 0.95 0.16 1.20 1.34 0.17 0.16 1.39 1.33 0.40 7.28 0.18 0.13 - 0.21 - 0.27 216.01 314.27 3.63 2.55
Jordan Shellfish 0.16 1.24 0.20 0.20 1.66 1.58 0.42 0.35 0.42 0.35
Crustaceans 0.15 1.12 0.18 0.18 1.50 1.43 0.38 0.31 0.38 0.31
Molluscs 0.02 0.12 0.02 0.02 0.16 0.15 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Cephalopods 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Fish 0.65 5.12 90.86 0.65 5.41 5.28 101.27 97.69 10.40 6.87 10.40 6.87 76.09 63.06
Finfish 0.65 5.00 88.68 0.65 5.28 5.14 98.66 95.19 9.98 6.56 9.98 6.56 74.71 61.69
Marine fish 3.33 59.07 3.52 3.44 65.86 63.67 6.78 4.63 6.78 4.63
F&D fish 0.65 1.67 29.61 0.65 1.75 1.70 32.80 31.52 3.19 1.93 3.19 1.93 42.57 31.66
Kazakhstan Shellfish 0.12 2.18 0.14 0.13 2.61 2.49 0.43 0.31 0.43 0.31
Crustaceans 0.07 1.29 0.08 0.08 1.54 1.47 0.24 0.18 0.24 0.18
Molluscs 0.05 0.89 0.06 0.06 1.07 1.02 0.18 0.13 0.18 0.13
Shell molluscs 0.03 0.58 0.04 0.04 0.69 0.65 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.08
Cephalopods 0.02 0.31 0.02 0.02 0.38 0.36 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.05
Fish 32.83 4.34 202.57 51.32 4.95 4.69 261.47 245.07 18.49 9.34 58.90 42.61 40.42 24.13 31.39 43.38 22.81 18.10
Finfish 32.83 4.33 202.05 51.32 4.93 4.67 260.65 244.31 18.49 9.34 58.60 42.37 40.11 23.88 31.55 43.63 22.73 18.03
Marine fish 0.15 6.99 0.17 0.16 9.01 8.54 2.02 1.55 2.02 1.55
F&D fish 32.83 4.18 195.06 51.32 4.76 4.51 251.64 235.77 18.49 9.34 56.58 40.82 38.10 22.33 32.67 45.29 22.19 17.54
Kenya Shellfish 0.01 0.52 0.02 0.01 0.82 0.76 0.30 0.24 0.30 0.24
Crustaceans 0.01 0.46 0.01 0.01 0.72 0.67 0.26 0.21 0.26 0.21
Molluscs 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.10 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Cephalopods 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
89
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
90

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.01 67.80 7.66 0.01 75.51 74.34 9.29 9.07 1.63 1.41 1.63 1.41 189.75 181.57
Finfish 0.01 65.97 7.45 0.01 73.33 72.21 9.02 8.81 1.56 1.36 1.56 1.36 187.55 179.44
Marine fish 65.94 7.45 73.30 72.18 9.02 8.81 1.56 1.35 1.56 1.35
F&D fish 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 0.68
Kiribati Shellfish 1.83 0.21 2.18 2.13 0.27 0.26 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Crustaceans 1.83 0.21 2.18 2.13 0.27 0.26 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Fish 430.92 52.16 2 628.94 401.92 64.37 61.03 3 304.16 3 102.94 - 29.00 - 1.38 675.22 475.33 704.22 504.33 20.75 16.03
Finfish 82.13 32.71 1 648.41 60.66 37.80 36.06 1 940.11 1 833.20 - 21.47 - 5.88 291.70 185.62 313.17 207.09 35.40 26.66
Marine fish 65.47 31.38 1 581.52 44.27 36.35 34.69 1 865.86 1 763.70 - 21.19 - 7.53 284.34 182.98 305.54 204.17 39.82 30.57
F&D fish 16.66 1.33 66.90 16.39 1.45 1.37 74.25 69.50 - 0.28 - 0.33 7.36 2.64 7.63 2.92 7.59 2.98
Korea,
Shellfish 348.79 19.46 980.52 341.26 26.57 24.97 1 364.04 1 269.74 - 7.53 - 0.44 383.52 289.71 391.05 297.24 15.99 12.85
Republic of
Crustaceans 5.00 3.33 167.78 7.33 4.40 4.15 225.92 210.97 2.33 7.97 58.14 43.28 55.81 40.94 4.02 5.39 66.08 57.40
Molluscs 343.80 16.13 812.75 333.93 22.17 20.82 1 138.13 1 058.77 - 9.87 - 0.58 325.38 246.43 335.25 256.30 14.25 11.42
Shell molluscs 343.80 9.51 479.11 333.93 12.75 11.99 654.44 609.43 - 9.87 - 0.58 175.33 130.56 185.20 140.43 8.59 6.65
Cephalopods 6.62 333.64 9.42 8.84 483.69 449.34 150.05 115.87 150.05 115.87
Fish 0.32 12.96 51.17 0.34 13.92 13.73 60.61 59.06 0.02 1.38 9.44 7.92 9.42 7.90 0.24 0.28 98.44 91.85
Finfish 0.32 11.23 44.37 0.34 11.95 11.80 52.04 50.73 0.02 1.38 7.67 6.39 7.64 6.37 0.29 0.35 90.64 84.11
Marine fish 0.00 8.76 34.60 0.00 9.37 9.26 40.77 39.80 6.18 5.23 6.18 5.23 321.12 307.35
F&D fish 0.31 2.47 9.77 0.33 2.59 2.54 11.26 10.93 0.02 1.41 1.49 1.16 1.47 1.14 1.51 1.95 41.99 36.36
Kuwait Shellfish 1.72 6.80 1.97 1.94 8.57 8.33 1.77 1.53 1.77 1.53
Crustaceans 1.65 6.51 1.89 1.86 8.21 7.98 1.70 1.47 1.70 1.47
Molluscs 0.07 0.29 0.08 0.08 0.36 0.35 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
Shell molluscs 0.05 0.19 0.05 0.05 0.24 0.23 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Cephalopods 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.03 0.12 0.12 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Fish 0.57 2.23 13.34 0.85 2.45 2.35 15.72 14.93 0.28 8.39 2.37 1.60 2.09 1.31 11.86 17.65 38.96 30.67
Finfish 0.57 2.21 13.25 0.85 2.43 2.33 15.60 14.82 0.28 8.39 2.35 1.57 2.06 1.29 12.01 17.88 38.69 30.42
Marine fish 2.08 12.48 2.29 2.20 14.69 13.97 2.22 1.50 2.22 1.50
F&D fish 0.57 0.13 0.78 0.85 0.14 0.13 0.91 0.85 0.28 8.39 0.13 0.08 - 0.15 - 0.21 218.52 369.49 4.18 2.55
Kyrgyzstan Shellfish 0.02 0.09 0.02 0.02 0.12 0.11 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Crustaceans 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Molluscs 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 123.76 20.40 139.95 159.55 24.19 22.68 180.40 167.10 35.79 5.21 40.45 27.24 4.66 - 8.55 88.48 131.40 5.82 4.06
Finfish 123.76 20.37 139.74 159.55 24.15 22.64 180.06 166.79 35.79 5.21 40.32 27.13 4.52 - 8.66 88.78 131.91 5.80 4.04
Marine fish 0.63 4.30 0.77 0.73 5.72 5.36 1.42 1.07 1.42 1.07
F&D fish 123.76 19.74 135.45 159.55 23.38 21.91 174.34 161.43 35.79 5.21 38.89 26.07 3.10 - 9.73 92.02 137.32 5.62 3.90
Lao People’s
Democratic Shellfish 0.03 0.21 0.05 0.04 0.34 0.31 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.11
Republic
Crustaceans 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Molluscs 0.03 0.17 0.04 0.04 0.29 0.26 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.09
Shell molluscs 0.02 0.17 0.04 0.03 0.28 0.25 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.08
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Fish 0.63 28.51 55.99 0.63 34.49 33.18 66.02 62.90 10.03 6.94 10.03 6.94 75.82 64.21
Finfish 0.63 26.55 52.13 0.63 31.69 30.53 60.65 57.89 8.52 5.78 8.52 5.78 70.55 58.84
Marine fish 21.59 42.39 25.96 25.05 49.68 47.50 7.29 5.13 7.29 5.13
F&D fish 0.63 4.96 9.74 0.63 5.73 5.48 10.97 10.38 1.23 0.65 1.23 0.65 24.09 15.12
Latvia Shellfish 0.00 1.97 3.86 0.00 2.80 2.65 5.36 5.02 1.51 1.16 1.51 1.16 667.19 628.24
Crustaceans 0.00 0.96 1.89 0.00 1.41 1.34 2.70 2.54 0.81 0.65 0.81 0.65 577.45 547.78
Molluscs 1.00 1.96 1.39 1.31 2.66 2.48 0.70 0.51 0.70 0.51
Shell molluscs 0.94 1.85 1.31 1.23 2.51 2.34 0.66 0.49 0.66 0.49
Cephalopods 0.06 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.15 0.14 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Fish 1.27 9.68 57.28 1.35 11.10 10.80 64.91 62.33 0.09 1.32 7.64 5.09 7.55 5.01 1.12 1.68 47.70 38.08
Finfish 1.25 8.10 47.96 1.34 9.11 8.88 53.27 51.28 0.09 1.34 5.31 3.35 5.22 3.26 1.61 2.56 39.31 29.74
Marine fish 7.50 44.42 8.46 8.25 49.48 47.65 5.06 3.27 5.06 3.27
F&D fish 1.25 0.60 3.55 1.34 0.65 0.63 3.80 3.62 0.09 1.34 0.25 0.08 0.16 - 0.01 34.43 111.05 3.70 1.21
Lebanon Shellfish 0.02 1.57 9.31 0.02 1.99 1.91 11.64 11.05 2.33 1.75 2.33 1.75 168.95 154.02
Crustaceans 0.02 1.16 6.87 0.02 1.48 1.42 8.64 8.22 1.77 1.36 1.77 1.36 154.74 141.68
Molluscs 0.41 2.45 0.51 0.49 3.00 2.83 0.56 0.39 0.56 0.39
Shell molluscs 0.32 1.89 0.39 0.37 2.28 2.15 0.40 0.27 0.40 0.27
Cephalopods 0.09 0.56 0.12 0.12 0.72 0.68 0.16 0.12 0.16 0.12
Fish 0.95 0.83 1.79 1.62 0.92 0.89 2.10 1.99 0.67 11.20 0.31 0.21 - 0.35 - 0.46 213.26 318.91 5.84 4.05
Finfish 0.95 0.81 1.74 1.62 0.90 0.86 2.03 1.93 0.67 11.20 0.30 0.20 - 0.37 - 0.47 225.50 339.32 5.56 3.82
Marine fish 0.61 1.32 0.69 0.66 1.56 1.49 0.24 0.17 0.24 0.17
F&D fish 0.95 0.19 0.42 1.62 0.21 0.20 0.47 0.44 0.67 11.20 0.05 0.03 - 0.61 - 0.64 1 251.34 2 495.82 1.10 0.56
Lesotho Shellfish 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Crustaceans 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Molluscs 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Cephalopods
91
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
92

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.04 4.16 18.98 0.05 4.91 4.72 25.30 24.06 0.02 7.35 6.32 5.10 6.30 5.08 0.25 0.31 180.01 168.31
Finfish 0.04 4.13 18.84 0.05 4.87 4.68 25.08 23.86 0.02 7.35 6.24 5.04 6.22 5.02 0.25 0.31 179.34 167.69
Marine fish 3.59 16.36 4.25 4.09 21.90 20.88 5.55 4.53 5.55 4.53
F&D fish 0.04 0.54 2.48 0.05 0.62 0.59 3.18 2.99 0.02 7.35 0.69 0.51 0.68 0.49 2.27 3.09 81.69 71.35
Liberia Shellfish 0.03 0.14 0.04 0.04 0.22 0.20 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
Crustaceans 0.02 0.11 0.03 0.03 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Molluscs 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Fish 0.01 16.98 107.05 0.01 21.46 20.08 144.68 133.94 37.63 26.95 37.63 26.95 418.94 385.45
Finfish 0.01 16.59 104.56 0.01 20.78 19.48 140.12 129.92 35.55 25.41 35.55 25.41 413.10 379.77
Marine fish 16.51 104.05 20.69 19.39 139.51 129.36 35.46 25.37 35.46 25.37
F&D fish 0.01 0.08 0.52 0.01 0.09 0.08 0.61 0.55 0.09 0.04 0.09 0.04 59.26 36.16
Libya Shellfish 0.39 2.49 0.68 0.60 4.56 4.03 2.07 1.54 2.07 1.54
Crustaceans 0.12 0.74 0.19 0.17 1.27 1.14 0.53 0.40 0.53 0.40
Molluscs 0.28 1.75 0.49 0.43 3.29 2.89 1.54 1.14 1.54 1.14
Shell molluscs 0.03 0.18 0.04 0.04 0.27 0.24 0.09 0.06 0.09 0.06
Cephalopods 0.25 1.57 0.45 0.40 3.02 2.65 1.45 1.08 1.45 1.08
Fish 4.21 44.42 127.21 4.98 52.78 51.01 147.19 140.91 0.78 3.44 19.98 13.77 19.20 12.99 3.88 5.64 41.88 33.70
Finfish 4.21 43.16 123.61 4.98 51.03 49.35 142.31 136.32 0.78 3.44 18.70 12.78 17.92 12.00 4.15 6.07 40.34 32.20
Marine fish 38.72 110.89 45.95 44.48 128.14 122.87 17.25 12.04 17.25 12.04
F&D fish 4.21 4.44 12.72 4.98 5.08 4.87 14.16 13.45 0.78 3.44 1.45 0.74 0.67 - 0.04 53.59 104.80 6.09 3.30
Lithuania Shellfish 1.26 3.60 1.75 1.66 4.88 4.59 1.28 0.99 1.28 0.99
Crustaceans 0.63 1.82 0.90 0.86 2.52 2.38 0.70 0.56 0.70 0.56
Molluscs 0.62 1.78 0.85 0.80 2.36 2.21 0.58 0.42 0.58 0.42
Shell molluscs 0.53 1.52 0.72 0.68 2.00 1.88 0.49 0.36 0.49 0.36
Cephalopods 0.09 0.27 0.13 0.12 0.36 0.33 0.09 0.06 0.09 0.06
Fish 1.13 5.80 12.06 0.99 6.75 6.51 14.09 13.46 - 0.14 - 2.68 2.03 1.40 2.17 1.54 22.78 17.46
Finfish 1.13 5.72 11.90 0.99 6.64 6.40 13.86 13.24 - 0.14 - 2.68 1.96 1.35 2.10 1.49 22.27 16.99
Marine fish 4.55 9.47 5.32 5.14 11.11 10.64 1.64 1.17 1.64 1.17
The former F&D fish 1.13 1.17 2.43 0.99 1.32 1.26 2.75 2.61 - 0.14 - 2.68 0.32 0.18 0.46 0.32 5.10 2.95
Yugoslav
Shellfish 0.08 0.16 0.11 0.10 0.23 0.21 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Republic of
Macedonia Crustaceans 0.03 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Molluscs 0.05 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.15 0.14 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Shell molluscs 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Cephalopods 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 10.01 4.56 112.08 12.55 5.00 4.85 141.01 135.21 2.54 4.63 28.93 23.20 26.39 20.66 8.78 10.95 31.22 27.11
Finfish 4.16 4.41 108.43 5.16 4.82 4.67 135.77 130.24 1.00 4.40 27.34 21.87 26.34 20.88 3.65 4.56 49.91 44.30
Marine fish 2.92 71.75 3.19 3.10 89.82 86.39 18.06 14.68 18.06 14.68
F&D fish 4.16 1.49 36.68 5.16 1.63 1.57 45.95 43.85 1.00 4.40 9.27 7.19 8.28 6.20 10.77 13.88 26.42 22.24
Madagascar Shellfish 5.85 0.15 3.65 7.39 0.19 0.18 5.24 4.97 1.54 4.79 1.59 1.33 0.05 - 0.22 96.82 116.27 4.93 4.17
Crustaceans 5.85 0.13 3.13 7.39 0.16 0.15 4.48 4.26 1.54 4.79 1.36 1.13 - 0.19 - 0.41 113.71 135.89 4.26 3.61
Molluscs 0.02 0.52 0.03 0.03 0.76 0.71 0.24 0.19 0.24 0.19
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Cephalopods 0.02 0.47 0.02 0.02 0.69 0.65 0.22 0.18 0.22 0.18
Fish 5.32 7.41 129.53 8.07 8.02 7.77 163.03 156.32 2.75 8.68 33.50 26.85 30.75 24.11 8.20 10.23 48.79 43.30
Finfish 5.32 7.41 129.46 8.07 8.02 7.76 162.93 156.22 2.75 8.68 33.47 26.83 30.72 24.08 8.21 10.24 48.76 43.28
Marine fish 0.24 4.24 0.26 0.26 5.33 5.15 1.09 0.91 1.09 0.91
F&D fish 5.32 7.16 125.22 8.07 7.76 7.51 157.60 151.08 2.75 8.68 32.38 25.92 29.63 23.17 8.48 10.60 47.92 42.46
Malawi Shellfish 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.09 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Crustaceans 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Molluscs 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Cephalopods 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 257.03 54.28 1 657.66 217.16 67.31 63.27 2 192.64 2 036.37 - 39.87 - 3.32 534.98 379.79 574.85 419.67 25.24 19.90
Finfish 166.81 45.26 1 382.34 150.15 54.32 51.22 1 769.28 1 648.40 - 16.66 - 2.08 386.95 266.97 403.61 283.63 27.12 21.06
Marine fish 25.79 39.79 1 215.18 32.15 48.02 45.33 1 564.06 1 459.07 6.36 4.51 348.88 244.68 342.51 238.32 1.82 2.60 70.78 60.00
F&D fish 141.02 5.47 167.15 118.00 6.30 5.88 205.23 189.33 - 23.02 - 3.50 38.07 22.29 61.10 45.31 4.90 2.98
Malaysia Shellfish 90.22 9.01 275.33 67.01 13.00 12.05 423.36 387.97 - 23.21 - 5.77 148.03 112.83 171.24 136.04 21.44 17.61
Crustaceans 46.98 4.92 150.40 23.77 7.05 6.56 229.51 211.00 - 23.21 - 12.74 79.11 60.70 102.32 83.91 21.83 18.05
Molluscs 43.24 4.09 124.93 43.24 5.95 5.50 193.85 176.97 68.92 52.13 68.92 52.13 21.00 17.14
Shell molluscs 43.24 1.76 53.61 43.24 2.43 2.24 79.02 72.23 25.41 18.66 25.41 18.66 9.69 7.44
Cephalopods 2.34 71.32 3.53 3.25 114.83 104.74 43.51 33.46 43.51 33.46
Fish 155.12 56.93 177.59 171.53 70.24 67.07 13.31 10.22 13.31 10.22
Finfish 152.31 55.90 173.97 168.10 68.81 65.73 12.91 9.91 12.91 9.91
Marine fish 152.17 55.85 173.82 167.96 68.75 65.67 12.90 9.90 12.90 9.90
F&D fish 0.13 0.05 0.15 0.14 0.06 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Maldives Shellfish 2.81 1.03 3.62 3.43 1.43 1.34 0.40 0.31 0.40 0.31
Crustaceans 2.11 0.77 2.70 2.57 1.07 1.01 0.30 0.23 0.30 0.23
Molluscs 0.70 0.26 0.91 0.85 0.36 0.33 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.08
Shell molluscs 0.32 0.12 0.40 0.37 0.16 0.15 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Cephalopods 0.38 0.14 0.51 0.48 0.20 0.19 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
93
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
94

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 2.04 7.13 127.32 2.36 7.82 7.57 162.41 155.78 0.32 2.99 35.08 28.51 34.76 28.19 0.92 1.13 78.71 71.89
Finfish 2.04 7.12 127.21 2.36 7.81 7.56 162.25 155.63 0.32 2.99 35.03 28.47 34.71 28.15 0.92 1.13 78.67 71.84
Marine fish 1.45 25.96 1.63 1.59 33.95 32.80 7.99 6.85 7.99 6.85
F&D fish 2.04 5.67 101.26 2.36 6.18 5.97 128.30 122.83 0.32 2.99 27.04 21.62 26.72 21.30 1.19 1.49 70.20 63.32
Mali Shellfish 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.15 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Crustaceans 0.01 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.14 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 5.97 31.00 13.00 8.75 36.57 35.30 15.49 14.82 2.79 7.96 2.48 1.84 - 0.30 - 0.95 112.17 151.71 7.21 5.51
Finfish 5.97 23.32 9.78 8.75 26.46 25.67 11.21 10.78 2.79 7.96 1.42 1.01 - 1.36 - 1.77 195.53 275.47 4.38 3.18
Marine fish 5.97 19.34 8.12 8.75 22.07 21.44 9.35 9.00 2.79 7.96 1.23 0.90 - 1.56 - 1.89 226.41 310.30 3.82 2.84
F&D fish 3.97 1.67 4.39 4.23 1.86 1.78 0.19 0.11 0.19 0.11
Malta Shellfish 7.68 3.22 10.11 9.63 4.28 4.04 1.06 0.83 1.06 0.83
Crustaceans 1.84 0.77 2.37 2.27 1.01 0.95 0.23 0.18 0.23 0.18
Molluscs 5.84 2.45 7.73 7.35 3.28 3.09 0.83 0.64 0.83 0.64
Shell molluscs 4.37 1.83 5.68 5.40 2.40 2.27 0.57 0.44 0.57 0.44
Cephalopods 1.47 0.62 2.06 1.95 0.87 0.82 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.20
Fish 17.97 0.95 20.76 20.18 1.10 1.07 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.12
Finfish 17.88 0.95 20.64 20.06 1.09 1.06 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.12
Marine fish 17.88 0.95 20.64 20.06 1.09 1.06 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.12
F&D fish
Marshall
Shellfish 0.09 0.01 0.12 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Islands
Crustaceans 0.09 0.01 0.12 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Fish 9.13 37.60 9.95 9.72 46.03 44.56 8.44 6.98 8.44 6.98
Finfish 9.08 37.39 9.89 9.66 45.76 44.29 8.36 6.92 8.36 6.92
Marine fish 5.21 21.44 5.73 5.62 26.52 25.76 5.08 4.33 5.08 4.33
F&D fish 3.87 15.95 4.16 4.04 19.23 18.53 3.28 2.59 3.28 2.59
Mauritania Shellfish 0.05 0.21 0.06 0.06 0.28 0.27 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
Crustaceans 0.03 0.11 0.03 0.03 0.15 0.15 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Molluscs 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.03 0.13 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.03 0.13 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.67 22.43 28.60 0.84 26.28 25.07 33.96 32.06 0.17 4.50 5.37 3.47 5.20 3.31 3.08 4.76 55.17 43.92
Finfish 0.67 19.14 24.40 0.83 21.74 20.83 28.10 26.64 0.17 4.54 3.70 2.24 3.53 2.08 4.48 7.37 45.65 34.33
Marine fish 0.60 18.85 24.04 0.78 21.42 20.52 27.68 26.25 0.18 5.37 3.64 2.22 3.46 2.04 4.95 8.13 47.76 36.15
F&D fish 0.06 0.28 0.36 0.05 0.32 0.31 0.42 0.39 - 0.01 - 5.20 0.06 0.03 0.07 0.04 13.47 7.98
Mauritius Shellfish 0.01 3.29 4.19 0.01 4.54 4.24 5.87 5.42 1.67 1.23 1.67 1.23 206.93 188.64
Crustaceans 0.00 1.95 2.49 0.00 2.70 2.54 3.49 3.25 1.00 0.76 1.00 0.76 216.42 199.12
Molluscs 0.00 1.33 1.70 0.00 1.84 1.70 2.37 2.17 0.67 0.47 0.67 0.47 195.45 175.63
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.54 0.68 0.00 0.70 0.65 0.91 0.83 0.22 0.15 0.22 0.15 137.64 119.76
Cephalopods 0.80 1.02 1.13 1.05 1.47 1.34 0.45 0.32 0.45 0.32
Fish 192.45 12.86 1 644.22 239.41 14.54 13.93 1 970.68 1 866.85 46.96 4.46 326.45 223.61 279.49 176.66 14.38 21.00 21.94 16.67
Finfish 89.27 9.96 1 272.70 149.96 10.91 10.47 1 479.01 1 403.34 60.69 10.93 206.32 131.41 145.62 70.72 29.42 46.19 27.06 19.84
Marine fish 9.07 6.75 863.03 14.97 7.42 7.14 1 006.20 956.77 5.90 10.53 143.17 94.26 137.28 88.36 4.12 6.25 75.78 62.67
F&D fish 80.20 3.20 409.67 134.99 3.49 3.33 472.81 446.57 54.80 10.98 63.14 37.15 8.34 - 17.64 86.78 147.49 12.32 7.91
Mexico Shellfish 103.18 2.91 371.52 89.45 3.63 3.46 491.66 463.51 - 13.73 - 2.82 120.14 92.21 133.87 105.94 16.70 13.62
Crustaceans 90.34 1.98 252.57 68.14 2.47 2.36 334.64 315.98 - 22.20 - 5.48 82.07 63.56 104.28 85.76 13.80 11.24
Molluscs 12.85 0.93 118.95 21.31 1.16 1.10 157.02 147.53 8.47 10.66 38.06 28.65 29.59 20.18 22.25 29.56 31.71 26.43
Shell molluscs 12.85 0.54 69.07 21.31 0.66 0.63 89.45 84.09 8.47 10.66 20.38 15.06 11.91 6.59 41.55 56.22 20.93 16.79
Cephalopods 0.39 49.88 0.50 0.47 67.57 63.44 17.68 13.58 17.68 13.58
Fish 49.30 5.15 53.13 52.85 5.76 5.66 0.61 0.50 0.61 0.50
Finfish 48.78 5.10 52.55 52.27 5.70 5.59 0.60 0.50 0.60 0.50
Marine fish 48.73 5.09 52.50 52.22 5.70 5.59 0.60 0.50 0.60 0.50
F&D fish 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Micronesia
(Federated Shellfish 0.52 0.05 0.58 0.58 0.06 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
States of)
Crustaceans 0.30 0.03 0.34 0.33 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Molluscs 0.22 0.02 0.25 0.24 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shell molluscs 0.06 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods 0.15 0.02 0.18 0.17 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 9.48 11.06 44.98 10.25 12.69 12.25 50.96 48.61 0.76 1.56 5.97 3.65 5.21 2.89 12.77 20.90 10.26 6.73
Finfish 9.46 10.85 44.13 10.23 12.42 11.99 49.85 47.57 0.76 1.56 5.72 3.46 4.96 2.70 13.33 22.02 9.92 6.44
Marine fish 7.52 30.58 8.65 8.38 34.74 33.24 4.16 2.68 4.16 2.68
F&D fish 9.46 3.33 13.55 10.23 3.76 3.61 15.11 14.33 0.76 1.56 1.57 0.79 0.80 0.03 48.73 96.82 3.11 1.61
Moldova,
Shellfish 0.02 0.21 0.86 0.02 0.28 0.26 1.11 1.04 0.25 0.19 0.25 0.19 68.56 59.36
Republic of
Crustaceans 0.02 0.16 0.65 0.02 0.21 0.20 0.84 0.79 0.19 0.14 0.19 0.14 60.13 51.99
Molluscs 0.05 0.21 0.07 0.06 0.27 0.25 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.04
Shell molluscs 0.03 0.12 0.04 0.03 0.15 0.14 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Cephalopods 0.02 0.10 0.03 0.03 0.13 0.12 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
95
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
96

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.68 2.02 0.81 0.77 2.58 2.44 0.56 0.42 0.56 0.42
Finfish 0.64 1.92 0.76 0.73 2.43 2.30 0.51 0.38 0.51 0.38
Marine fish 0.64 1.92 0.76 0.73 2.42 2.30 0.51 0.38 0.51 0.38
F&D fish 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mongolia Shellfish 0.03 0.09 0.05 0.04 0.15 0.14 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Crustaceans 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Molluscs 0.03 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.14 0.13 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Shell molluscs 0.03 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.14 0.13 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Cephalopods
Fish 0.98 11.36 7.11 1.26 13.49 12.99 8.44 8.06 0.28 5.18 1.33 0.95 1.05 0.67 21.25 29.76 18.67 14.48
Finfish 0.80 8.95 5.60 1.08 10.22 9.88 6.39 6.13 0.28 6.22 0.79 0.53 0.51 0.25 35.83 53.34 14.67 10.67
Marine fish 0.09 6.57 4.11 0.09 7.56 7.33 4.73 4.55 0.62 0.44 0.62 0.44 49.86 41.34
F&D fish 0.71 2.38 1.49 0.99 2.66 2.55 1.66 1.58 0.28 6.95 0.17 0.09 - 0.11 - 0.19 167.17 309.30 4.38 2.46
Montenegro Shellfish 0.18 2.41 1.51 0.18 3.28 3.11 2.05 1.93 0.54 0.42 0.54 0.42 31.96 27.18
Crustaceans 0.39 0.25 0.52 0.49 0.32 0.31 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06
Molluscs 0.18 2.02 1.26 0.18 2.76 2.61 1.73 1.62 0.46 0.36 0.46 0.36 29.01 24.53
Shell molluscs 0.18 1.19 0.75 0.18 1.58 1.49 0.99 0.93 0.24 0.18 0.24 0.18 18.48 15.01
Cephalopods 0.83 0.52 1.18 1.12 0.74 0.69 0.22 0.18 0.22 0.18
Fish 1.11 17.83 617.01 1.56 20.28 19.58 743.09 709.49 0.45 7.01 126.08 92.84 125.63 92.39 0.36 0.48 157.96 142.80
Finfish 0.82 17.21 595.47 1.22 19.47 18.80 713.21 681.46 0.40 8.36 117.74 86.33 117.34 85.93 0.34 0.47 170.73 154.56
Marine fish 0.19 16.62 575.09 0.36 18.85 18.21 690.44 659.97 0.17 13.26 115.34 85.21 115.18 85.04 0.14 0.19 259.65 238.56
F&D fish 0.62 0.59 20.38 0.86 0.62 0.59 22.78 21.49 0.24 6.65 2.40 1.12 2.16 0.89 9.87 21.09 37.13 22.87
Morocco Shellfish 0.30 0.62 21.53 0.34 0.82 0.77 29.87 28.03 0.05 2.95 8.34 6.51 8.29 6.46 0.56 0.72 96.05 86.92
Crustaceans 0.53 18.37 0.69 0.66 25.34 23.81 6.97 5.45 6.97 5.45
Molluscs 0.30 0.09 3.16 0.34 0.12 0.12 4.53 4.22 0.05 2.95 1.37 1.05 1.32 1.01 3.41 4.42 41.09 35.31
Shell molluscs 0.30 0.02 0.60 0.34 0.02 0.02 0.78 0.72 0.05 2.95 0.18 0.12 0.13 0.08 26.45 37.92 9.73 7.15
Cephalopods 0.07 2.56 0.10 0.10 3.75 3.49 1.19 0.93 1.19 0.93
Fish 1.38 9.84 279.06 2.48 12.35 11.38 400.28 365.55 1.09 12.34 121.22 86.63 120.12 85.54 0.90 1.26 145.17 129.44
Finfish 1.36 9.47 268.64 2.46 11.71 10.82 379.72 347.45 1.09 12.49 111.08 78.94 109.99 77.85 0.98 1.38 141.66 125.92
Marine fish 0.24 6.26 177.53 0.48 7.73 7.19 250.76 230.89 0.25 15.32 73.23 53.45 72.99 53.20 0.34 0.46 215.08 195.91
F&D fish 1.13 3.21 91.11 1.97 3.98 3.63 128.96 116.56 0.85 11.85 37.85 25.49 37.01 24.65 2.24 3.32 103.11 88.19
Mozambique Shellfish 0.02 0.37 10.42 0.02 0.63 0.56 20.56 18.10 10.13 7.69 10.13 7.69 248.80 230.09
Crustaceans 0.02 0.28 8.01 0.02 0.48 0.43 15.70 13.91 7.68 5.90 7.68 5.90 230.06 213.10
Molluscs 0.08 2.41 0.15 0.13 4.86 4.20 2.45 1.79 2.45 1.79
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.29 0.02 0.01 0.52 0.45 0.23 0.16 0.23 0.16
Cephalopods 0.07 2.12 0.13 0.12 4.34 3.74 2.22 1.63 2.22 1.63
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 1 012.56 60.91 3 296.85 1 206.28 86.98 76.75 4 911.56 4 288.06 193.72 3.56 1 614.72 993.04 1 421.00 799.32 12.00 19.51 21.01 14.65
Finfish 963.97 60.83 3 292.77 1 163.07 86.86 76.65 4 904.63 4 282.20 199.10 3.83 1 611.85 991.25 1 412.76 792.15 12.35 20.09 21.72 15.19
Marine fish 0.18 31.57 1 709.12 0.26 44.97 40.03 2 539.35 2 236.13 0.07 6.87 830.22 527.95 830.15 527.88 0.01 0.01 437.58 391.06
F&D fish 963.79 29.26 1 583.65 1 162.82 41.89 36.62 2 365.28 2 046.07 199.03 3.83 781.63 463.30 582.60 264.27 25.46 42.96 12.61 8.17
Myanmar Shellfish 48.59 0.08 4.07 43.21 0.12 0.10 6.94 5.86 - 5.38 - 2.32 2.86 1.79 8.25 7.17 1.15 0.73
Crustaceans 48.59 0.07 3.52 43.21 0.11 0.09 6.03 5.10 - 5.38 - 2.32 2.50 1.58 7.88 6.96 1.01 0.64
Molluscs 0.01 0.55 0.02 0.01 0.91 0.76 0.36 0.21 0.36 0.21
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.12 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02
Cephalopods 0.01 0.45 0.01 0.01 0.77 0.64 0.32 0.19 0.32 0.19
Fish 0.71 11.20 27.85 0.89 12.63 12.14 34.85 33.10 0.19 4.86 7.00 5.27 6.81 5.08 2.70 3.59 61.33 53.30
Finfish 0.13 10.51 26.14 0.20 11.74 11.29 32.38 30.80 0.07 9.28 6.24 4.68 6.17 4.61 1.15 1.54 118.15 106.20
Marine fish 9.17 22.81 10.31 9.93 28.43 27.08 5.62 4.28 5.62 4.28
F&D fish 0.13 1.34 3.33 0.20 1.43 1.36 3.95 3.72 0.07 9.28 0.62 0.39 0.55 0.32 11.60 18.25 42.20 32.34
Namibia Shellfish 0.58 0.69 1.71 0.69 0.90 0.84 2.48 2.30 0.12 3.77 0.76 0.59 0.64 0.47 15.38 19.85 18.33 15.13
Crustaceans 0.19 0.46 0.24 0.23 0.66 0.62 0.20 0.16 0.20 0.16
Molluscs 0.58 0.50 1.25 0.69 0.66 0.62 1.82 1.68 0.12 3.77 0.56 0.43 0.44 0.31 20.85 27.16 14.57 11.81
Shell molluscs 0.58 0.24 0.61 0.69 0.31 0.29 0.85 0.79 0.12 3.77 0.25 0.19 0.13 0.07 47.74 63.25 7.35 5.73
Cephalopods 0.26 0.65 0.35 0.33 0.96 0.89 0.32 0.25 0.32 0.25
Fish 45.91 2.17 62.18 61.66 2.39 2.30 72.55 68.93 15.75 6.08 10.37 6.79 - 5.39 - 8.96 151.98 231.95 4.16 2.80
Finfish 45.91 2.17 62.18 61.66 2.39 2.30 72.55 68.93 15.75 6.08 10.37 6.79 - 5.39 - 8.96 151.98 231.95 4.16 2.80
Marine fish 0.28 8.12 0.32 0.31 9.69 9.29 1.58 1.18 1.58 1.18
F&D fish 45.91 1.89 54.07 61.66 2.07 1.99 62.86 59.65 15.75 6.08 8.79 5.62 - 6.97 - 10.14 179.26 280.53 3.57 2.33
Nepal Shellfish
Crustaceans
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Fish 55.61 22.04 373.64 55.60 24.57 24.03 422.90 410.05 - 0.01 - 0.00 49.26 36.58 49.28 36.59 13.53 10.64
Finfish 3.56 18.58 315.05 3.55 20.35 19.93 350.27 340.12 - 0.01 - 0.06 35.23 25.21 35.24 25.22 61.23 51.88
Marine fish 0.27 15.66 265.56 0.26 17.18 16.84 295.69 287.36 - 0.01 - 0.80 30.13 21.92 30.14 21.93 157.11 141.42
F&D fish 3.29 2.92 49.49 3.29 3.17 3.09 54.58 52.76 5.10 3.29 5.10 3.29 20.58 14.88
Netherlands Shellfish 52.05 3.46 58.59 52.05 4.22 4.10 72.63 69.93 14.04 11.36 14.04 11.36 4.89 4.03
Crustaceans 2.40 40.77 2.94 2.86 50.65 48.85 9.89 8.10 9.89 8.10
Molluscs 52.05 1.05 17.83 52.05 1.28 1.24 21.98 21.08 4.15 3.26 4.15 3.26 1.55 1.22
Shell molluscs 52.05 0.76 12.94 52.05 0.92 0.89 15.86 15.23 2.92 2.30 2.92 2.30 1.10 0.87
Cephalopods 0.29 4.89 0.36 0.34 6.11 5.85 1.23 0.97 1.23 0.97
97
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
98

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 102.90 25.36 115.33 98.19 28.43 27.65 135.03 130.17 - 4.70 - 0.93 19.70 14.89 24.40 19.59 3.56 2.74
Finfish 11.04 21.15 96.17 9.30 23.25 22.65 110.41 106.61 - 1.74 - 3.36 14.25 10.48 15.98 12.22 18.03 14.28
Marine fish 19.91 90.52 21.91 21.36 104.09 100.54 13.58 10.06 13.58 10.06
F&D fish 11.04 1.24 5.65 9.30 1.33 1.29 6.32 6.07 - 1.74 - 3.36 0.67 0.42 2.41 2.15 1.19 0.75
New Zealand Shellfish 91.86 4.22 19.17 88.89 5.18 5.01 24.62 23.56 - 2.97 - 0.65 5.45 4.41 8.42 7.37 1.16 0.94
Crustaceans 2.37 10.79 2.90 2.81 13.80 13.24 3.01 2.45 3.01 2.45
Molluscs 91.86 1.84 8.38 88.89 2.28 2.19 10.82 10.33 - 2.97 - 0.65 2.44 1.95 5.41 4.92 0.53 0.42
Shell molluscs 91.86 0.66 3.02 88.89 0.80 0.77 3.80 3.63 - 2.97 - 0.65 0.78 0.61 3.75 3.58 0.17 0.13
Cephalopods 1.18 5.36 1.48 1.42 7.03 6.70 1.66 1.34 1.66 1.34
Fish 33.71 4.86 29.69 48.53 5.74 5.52 37.00 35.15 14.83 7.56 7.31 5.48 - 7.52 - 9.35 202.82 270.65 4.00 3.06
Finfish 0.03 3.68 22.48 0.03 4.16 4.02 26.84 25.62 4.36 3.16 4.36 3.16 174.84 157.75
Marine fish 3.51 21.45 3.98 3.84 25.65 24.49 4.20 3.06 4.20 3.06
F&D fish 0.03 0.17 1.03 0.03 0.18 0.18 1.19 1.13 0.16 0.10 0.16 0.10 46.94 35.39
Nicaragua Shellfish 33.68 1.18 7.22 48.51 1.58 1.50 10.16 9.53 14.83 7.57 2.95 2.32 - 11.88 - 12.51 503.04 639.00 1.69 1.34
Crustaceans 33.68 0.43 2.66 48.51 0.59 0.57 3.83 3.61 14.83 7.57 1.17 0.95 - 13.65 - 13.87 1 266.37 1 554.34 0.69 0.56
Molluscs 0.75 4.56 0.98 0.93 6.34 5.92 1.78 1.37 1.78 1.37
Shell molluscs 0.74 4.54 0.98 0.92 6.31 5.89 1.77 1.36 1.77 1.36
Cephalopods 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Fish 0.34 2.97 60.35 0.58 3.32 3.17 82.37 78.13 0.24 11.48 22.02 17.81 21.78 17.56 1.10 1.36 131.46 121.98
Finfish 0.34 2.97 60.34 0.58 3.32 3.17 82.36 78.12 0.24 11.48 22.02 17.80 21.78 17.56 1.10 1.36 131.45 121.97
Marine fish 0.08 1.61 0.09 0.09 2.28 2.19 0.67 0.58 0.67 0.58
F&D fish 0.34 2.89 58.73 0.58 3.23 3.08 80.08 75.93 0.24 11.48 21.35 17.22 21.10 16.98 1.14 1.41 130.04 120.54
Niger Shellfish 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Crustaceans 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Fish 358.94 13.41 2 474.74 511.72 14.69 14.13 3 076.05 2 934.65 152.78 7.35 601.31 461.09 448.53 308.31 25.41 33.13 21.75 17.97
Finfish 358.94 13.23 2 441.64 511.72 14.48 13.94 3 032.51 2 893.54 152.78 7.35 590.87 453.06 438.09 300.28 25.86 33.72 21.49 17.74
Marine fish 9.65 1 781.51 10.61 10.23 2 220.98 2 123.03 439.47 342.37 439.47 342.37
F&D fish 358.94 3.58 660.13 511.72 3.88 3.71 811.53 770.51 152.78 7.35 151.40 110.69 - 1.38 - 42.09 100.91 138.02 7.29 5.52
Nigeria Shellfish 0.18 33.10 0.21 0.20 43.54 41.11 10.44 8.03 10.44 8.03
Crustaceans 0.10 18.75 0.12 0.11 24.87 23.52 6.12 4.78 6.12 4.78
Molluscs 0.08 14.35 0.09 0.08 18.67 17.59 4.32 3.25 4.32 3.25
Shell molluscs 0.08 13.85 0.09 0.08 18.02 16.97 4.16 3.13 4.16 3.13
Cephalopods 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.66 0.62 0.16 0.12 0.16 0.12
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 1 491.84 51.67 270.83 1 902.34 57.05 56.22 314.84 307.40 410.50 4.98 44.01 36.71 - 366.49 - 373.79 932.74 1 118.35 0.58 0.49
Finfish 1 489.54 37.88 198.53 1 899.67 40.86 40.31 225.46 220.40 410.13 4.98 26.94 21.97 - 383.19 - 388.16 1 522.51 1 866.80 0.36 0.29
Marine fish 6.33 31.85 166.93 6.33 34.45 34.01 190.08 185.97 23.15 19.12 23.15 19.12 36.02 32.07
F&D fish 1 483.21 6.03 31.59 1 893.34 6.41 6.30 35.38 34.43 410.13 5.00 3.78 2.85 - 406.34 - 407.28 10 841.64 14 382.09 0.05 0.04
Norway Shellfish 2.30 13.79 72.30 2.67 16.20 15.91 89.38 87.00 0.37 3.03 17.07 14.74 16.70 14.37 2.17 2.52 53.11 49.22
Crustaceans 12.75 66.82 14.99 14.74 82.74 80.57 15.91 13.78 15.91 13.78
Molluscs 2.30 1.05 5.48 2.67 1.20 1.18 6.64 6.43 0.37 3.03 1.16 0.95 0.79 0.58 32.05 38.87 8.49 7.18
Shell molluscs 2.30 1.00 5.24 2.67 1.15 1.12 6.34 6.15 0.37 3.03 1.11 0.91 0.73 0.54 33.57 40.68 8.16 6.90
Cephalopods 0.05 0.24 0.05 0.05 0.29 0.28 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Fish 0.37 20.85 95.35 0.59 22.13 21.89 107.03 104.89 0.22 9.56 11.68 9.58 11.46 9.36 1.85 2.26 100.31 92.80
Finfish 0.01 20.05 91.66 0.01 21.22 21.00 102.64 100.61 0.01 13.81 10.98 8.99 10.97 8.98 0.05 0.07 340.78 323.53
Marine fish 19.88 90.88 21.04 20.83 101.78 99.78 10.90 8.93 10.90 8.93
F&D fish 0.01 0.17 0.78 0.01 0.18 0.17 0.85 0.83 0.01 13.81 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.05 7.82 10.73 66.06 56.79
Oman Shellfish 0.37 0.81 3.69 0.58 0.91 0.89 4.39 4.28 0.21 9.48 0.70 0.59 0.49 0.38 30.03 35.51 23.79 21.17
Crustaceans 0.37 0.62 2.85 0.58 0.70 0.69 3.38 3.30 0.21 9.48 0.53 0.45 0.32 0.24 39.53 46.49 19.61 17.41
Molluscs 0.18 0.84 0.21 0.20 1.01 0.98 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.14
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods 0.18 0.82 0.20 0.20 0.98 0.95 0.16 0.14 0.16 0.14
Fish 151.97 1.93 369.11 162.88 2.18 2.09 459.38 435.00 10.91 1.40 90.27 66.09 79.36 55.19 12.08 16.51 9.77 7.49
Finfish 151.64 1.88 358.73 162.35 2.11 2.02 444.06 420.79 10.71 1.37 85.32 62.26 74.61 51.55 12.55 17.21 9.34 7.12
Marine fish 0.51 96.51 0.58 0.56 122.18 116.64 25.68 20.18 25.68 20.18
F&D fish 151.64 1.37 262.23 162.35 1.53 1.46 321.87 304.15 10.71 1.37 59.65 42.07 48.94 31.36 17.96 25.46 6.86 5.02
Pakistan Shellfish 0.33 0.05 10.38 0.53 0.07 0.07 15.33 14.21 0.20 9.72 4.95 3.84 4.75 3.64 3.98 5.13 73.73 65.71
Crustaceans 0.33 0.01 1.46 0.53 0.01 0.01 2.09 1.96 0.20 9.72 0.63 0.50 0.43 0.30 31.41 39.43 23.55 20.08
Molluscs 0.05 8.92 0.06 0.06 13.24 12.25 4.32 3.34 4.32 3.34
Shell molluscs 0.01 1.32 0.01 0.01 1.85 1.71 0.52 0.39 0.52 0.39
Cephalopods 0.04 7.60 0.05 0.05 11.40 10.54 3.80 2.95 3.80 2.95
Fish 0.02 57.64 1.24 0.02 69.39 66.81 1.56 1.47 0.32 0.26 0.32 0.26 78.28 71.18
Finfish 0.02 54.63 1.17 0.02 65.27 62.95 1.47 1.38 0.29 0.24 0.29 0.24 79.64 72.58
Marine fish 53.51 1.15 64.09 61.81 1.44 1.36 0.29 0.24 0.29 0.24
F&D fish 0.02 1.12 0.02 0.02 1.19 1.13 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.93 1.66
Palau Shellfish 0.00 3.02 0.06 0.00 4.12 3.86 0.09 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 67.03 59.49
Crustaceans 1.21 0.03 1.62 1.53 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Molluscs 0.00 1.81 0.04 0.00 2.49 2.33 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 53.18 46.29
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.78 4.48
Cephalopods 1.71 0.04 2.37 2.21 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
99
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
100

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 10.74 13.21 52.30 14.68 16.25 15.40 69.23 64.92 3.94 6.46 16.93 12.64 12.98 8.70 23.31 31.20 20.83 16.84
Finfish 2.00 11.22 44.41 3.35 13.25 12.62 56.46 53.21 1.35 10.88 12.05 8.82 10.70 7.47 11.22 15.33 47.69 40.17
Marine fish 1.61 10.48 41.51 2.96 12.42 11.84 52.91 49.90 1.35 12.97 11.40 8.42 10.05 7.06 11.86 16.07 51.89 44.17
F&D fish 0.39 0.73 2.90 0.39 0.83 0.78 3.55 3.31 0.65 0.40 0.65 0.40 21.60 15.27
Panama Shellfish 8.74 1.99 7.89 11.33 3.00 2.78 12.76 11.71 2.59 5.33 4.88 3.83 2.28 1.23 53.17 67.76 9.27 7.53
Crustaceans 8.74 1.02 4.06 11.33 1.56 1.46 6.65 6.14 2.59 5.33 2.59 2.09 - 0.00 - 0.51 100.02 124.21 5.33 4.38
Molluscs 0.97 3.83 1.44 1.32 6.12 5.57 2.28 1.74 2.28 1.74
Shell molluscs 0.48 1.88 0.69 0.64 2.94 2.69 1.06 0.80 1.06 0.80
Cephalopods 0.49 1.95 0.75 0.68 3.18 2.88 1.23 0.93 1.23 0.93
Fish 2.38 15.47 119.07 3.16 17.30 16.98 146.98 142.81 0.78 5.80 27.91 23.80 27.13 23.03 2.78 3.26 66.28 61.51
Finfish 2.37 15.43 118.74 3.15 17.25 16.93 146.53 142.38 0.78 5.83 27.80 23.71 27.02 22.93 2.79 3.27 66.34 61.56
Marine fish 13.61 104.76 15.37 15.10 130.52 126.98 25.76 22.27 25.76 22.27
F&D fish 2.37 1.82 13.97 3.15 1.89 1.83 16.01 15.40 0.78 5.83 2.04 1.44 1.26 0.66 38.04 54.01 13.23 9.95
Papua New
Shellfish 0.01 0.04 0.33 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.44 0.43 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.10 55.53 51.13
Guinea
Crustaceans 0.01 0.03 0.21 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.28 0.27 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 44.00 40.44
Molluscs 0.02 0.12 0.02 0.02 0.16 0.15 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.10 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Cephalopods 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Fish 9.03 3.88 25.90 14.11 4.23 4.09 30.04 28.73 5.08 9.33 4.14 2.84 - 0.94 - 2.24 122.73 178.72 7.83 5.62
Finfish 9.03 3.79 25.30 14.11 4.11 3.98 29.23 27.96 5.08 9.33 3.93 2.68 - 1.14 - 2.40 129.09 189.58 7.50 5.33
Marine fish 0.39 2.61 0.44 0.42 3.09 2.98 0.48 0.37 0.48 0.37
F&D fish 9.03 3.40 22.69 14.11 3.68 3.55 26.14 24.98 5.08 9.33 3.45 2.30 - 1.63 - 2.77 147.20 220.36 6.68 4.65
Paraguay Shellfish 0.09 0.61 0.11 0.11 0.81 0.77 0.20 0.16 0.20 0.16
Crustaceans 0.03 0.19 0.04 0.04 0.26 0.25 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
Molluscs 0.06 0.41 0.08 0.07 0.55 0.52 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.11
Shell molluscs 0.06 0.40 0.07 0.07 0.53 0.50 0.13 0.10 0.13 0.10
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Fish 140.58 21.83 689.36 204.09 24.99 24.21 837.31 802.56 63.51 7.74 147.94 113.59 84.43 50.07 42.93 55.92 15.47 12.57
Finfish 49.39 17.73 559.82 76.97 19.77 19.22 662.25 637.16 27.58 9.28 102.43 77.66 74.84 50.08 26.93 35.52 25.18 20.80
Marine fish 0.00 15.42 487.03 0.00 17.26 16.81 578.35 557.06 91.31 70.30 91.31 70.30 663.20 624.31
F&D fish 49.39 2.31 72.79 76.97 2.50 2.42 83.90 80.10 27.58 9.28 11.11 7.35 - 16.47 - 20.23 248.21 375.06 4.14 2.82
Peru Shellfish 91.19 4.10 129.54 127.12 5.22 4.99 175.06 165.40 35.93 6.87 45.52 35.93 9.59 - 0.00 78.94 100.01 8.44 6.87
Crustaceans 23.06 0.31 9.87 30.91 0.40 0.39 13.45 12.80 7.85 6.03 3.58 2.94 - 4.26 - 4.90 218.96 266.70 2.93 2.43
Molluscs 68.12 3.79 119.68 96.21 4.82 4.60 161.61 152.60 28.08 7.15 41.94 32.99 13.85 4.90 66.97 85.14 10.07 8.22
Shell molluscs 68.12 2.64 83.31 96.21 3.32 3.17 111.12 105.03 28.08 7.15 27.81 21.77 - 0.27 - 6.31 100.99 129.00 7.09 5.70
Cephalopods 1.15 36.37 1.51 1.44 50.49 47.56 14.12 11.22 14.12 11.22
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 829.83 30.45 3 090.00 900.05 39.41 35.95 4 303.99 3 884.95 70.22 1.64 1 213.99 796.71 1 143.78 726.49 5.78 8.81 19.75 14.41
Finfish 707.20 27.38 2 778.27 768.07 34.48 31.56 3 765.57 3 409.78 60.86 1.66 987.29 633.09 926.43 572.23 6.16 9.61 19.10 13.64
Marine fish 1.39 19.21 1 948.90 1.39 24.35 22.37 2 658.90 2 417.40 710.01 469.61 710.01 469.61 248.28 220.71
F&D fish 705.81 8.17 829.37 766.68 10.13 9.18 1 106.66 992.38 60.86 1.67 277.29 163.48 216.43 102.61 21.95 37.23 6.85 4.25
Philippines Shellfish 122.63 3.07 311.73 131.98 4.93 4.40 538.43 475.17 9.35 1.48 226.70 163.62 217.34 154.27 4.13 5.72 23.29 18.48
Crustaceans 77.85 1.22 124.23 85.29 1.95 1.75 212.99 189.04 7.45 1.84 88.76 64.88 81.31 57.43 8.39 11.48 16.44 12.89
Molluscs 44.78 1.85 187.50 46.69 2.98 2.65 325.44 286.13 1.91 0.84 137.94 98.74 136.03 96.83 1.38 1.93 32.47 26.23
Shell molluscs 44.78 1.04 105.69 46.69 1.61 1.44 176.04 155.19 1.91 0.84 70.35 49.56 68.44 47.65 2.71 3.85 20.79 16.07
Cephalopods 0.81 81.81 1.37 1.21 149.40 130.95 67.59 49.18 67.59 49.18
Fish 37.93 10.51 405.68 42.87 12.15 11.71 466.33 444.88 4.94 2.48 60.65 39.42 55.71 34.48 8.14 12.53 21.05 15.32
Finfish 37.93 10.38 400.69 42.87 11.98 11.55 459.80 438.77 4.94 2.48 59.10 38.28 54.17 33.34 8.36 12.90 20.67 14.98
Marine fish 8.40 324.41 9.74 9.40 373.60 357.15 49.19 32.91 49.19 32.91
F&D fish 37.93 1.98 76.28 42.87 2.25 2.15 86.20 81.62 4.94 2.48 9.91 5.37 4.97 0.43 49.83 91.92 4.75 2.69
Poland Shellfish 0.01 0.13 4.98 0.01 0.17 0.16 6.53 6.12 1.55 1.13 1.55 1.13 203.84 185.63
Crustaceans 0.01 0.08 3.15 0.01 0.11 0.10 4.16 3.91 1.01 0.76 1.01 0.76 179.18 163.83
Molluscs 0.05 1.84 0.06 0.06 2.37 2.21 0.54 0.37 0.54 0.37
Shell molluscs 0.04 1.65 0.06 0.05 2.12 1.97 0.47 0.32 0.47 0.32
Cephalopods 0.00 0.19 0.01 0.01 0.26 0.24 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.05
Fish 12.50 54.52 563.02 16.55 61.12 59.75 619.97 600.68 4.05 5.78 56.95 37.91 52.89 33.85 7.12 10.70 40.92 32.17
Finfish 7.14 46.02 475.24 9.45 50.66 49.63 513.84 498.94 2.31 5.76 38.60 23.90 36.29 21.60 5.98 9.65 44.99 34.17
Marine fish 6.47 42.79 441.87 8.78 47.17 46.23 478.52 464.85 2.31 6.29 36.65 23.17 34.34 20.87 6.29 9.95 46.14 35.59
F&D fish 0.67 3.23 33.38 0.67 3.48 3.39 35.33 34.09 1.95 0.73 1.95 0.73 31.37 15.89
Portugal Shellfish 5.36 8.50 87.78 7.11 10.46 10.12 106.12 101.74 1.75 5.81 18.35 14.00 16.60 12.26 9.53 12.48 34.63 29.29
Crustaceans 0.01 1.95 20.14 0.01 2.36 2.29 23.89 22.99 0.00 10.88 3.75 2.86 3.75 2.86 0.10 0.13 267.51 248.10
Molluscs 5.35 6.55 67.64 7.10 8.11 7.83 82.23 78.75 1.74 5.80 14.59 11.14 12.85 9.40 11.95 15.65 30.09 25.24
Shell molluscs 5.35 4.29 44.26 7.10 5.20 5.03 52.79 50.58 1.74 5.80 8.53 6.34 6.78 4.60 20.45 27.50 20.99 16.91
Cephalopods 2.26 23.38 2.90 2.80 29.44 28.17 6.07 4.80 6.07 4.80
Fish 0.02 0.40 1.48 0.02 0.42 0.42 1.53 1.52 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.04 30.97 25.25
Finfish 0.01 0.13 0.47 0.01 0.13 0.13 0.48 0.48 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 19.73 12.24
Marine fish 0.13 0.46 0.13 0.13 0.47 0.47 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
F&D fish 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 - 0.00 0.00 - 0.00 100.00 0.15
Puerto Rico Shellfish 0.01 0.27 1.01 0.01 0.29 0.29 1.05 1.04 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04 36.03 30.84
Crustaceans 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.12 0.12 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 7.29 6.07
Molluscs 0.24 0.89 0.25 0.25 0.93 0.92 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Shell molluscs 0.24 0.89 0.25 0.25 0.93 0.92 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Cephalopods
101
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
102

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.06 22.98 52.01 0.08 24.81 24.40 61.30 59.82 0.02 6.58 9.29 7.84 9.27 7.81 0.25 0.29 173.66 164.55
Finfish 0.06 20.66 46.75 0.08 22.13 21.78 54.67 53.40 0.02 6.58 7.92 6.66 7.90 6.64 0.29 0.34 165.11 156.18
Marine fish 17.39 39.35 18.69 18.42 46.19 45.15 6.84 5.82 6.84 5.82
F&D fish 0.06 3.27 7.40 0.08 3.43 3.36 8.48 8.24 0.02 6.58 1.08 0.84 1.06 0.82 2.12 2.71 79.66 71.56
Qatar Shellfish 2.32 5.25 2.68 2.62 6.63 6.42 1.37 1.17 1.37 1.17
Crustaceans 1.91 4.33 2.21 2.16 5.47 5.31 1.14 0.98 1.14 0.98
Molluscs 0.41 0.93 0.47 0.46 1.16 1.12 0.23 0.19 0.23 0.19
Shell molluscs 0.26 0.58 0.29 0.28 0.72 0.69 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.11
Cephalopods 0.15 0.34 0.18 0.17 0.44 0.42 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.08
Fish 10.67 6.82 132.55 10.68 7.97 7.63 149.69 142.12 0.00 0.00 17.14 9.63 17.14 9.63 0.01 0.01 21.11 13.72
Finfish 10.67 6.65 129.33 10.67 7.74 7.42 145.48 138.21 16.16 8.94 16.16 8.94 20.25 12.94
Marine fish 4.05 78.80 4.76 4.58 89.35 85.22 10.56 6.46 10.56 6.46
F&D fish 10.67 2.60 50.53 10.67 2.99 2.84 56.13 52.99 5.60 2.48 5.60 2.48 8.80 4.27
Romania Shellfish 0.00 0.17 3.22 0.00 0.22 0.21 4.20 3.91 0.00 7.31 0.98 0.69 0.98 0.69 0.11 0.15 231.78 209.05
Crustaceans 0.08 1.46 0.10 0.10 1.92 1.80 0.46 0.34 0.46 0.34
Molluscs 0.00 0.09 1.76 0.00 0.12 0.11 2.28 2.11 0.00 7.31 0.52 0.35 0.52 0.35 0.20 0.30 192.18 170.13
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.07 1.37 0.00 0.09 0.09 1.75 1.62 0.00 7.31 0.38 0.25 0.38 0.25 0.27 0.41 174.57 153.05
Cephalopods 0.02 0.39 0.03 0.03 0.53 0.49 0.14 0.10 0.14 0.10
Fish 176.20 22.84 3 277.00 224.54 25.04 24.24 3 574.54 3 425.34 48.33 4.97 297.54 150.11 249.20 101.78 16.24 32.20 21.87 13.12
Finfish 172.85 20.74 2 975.22 218.87 22.53 21.82 3 216.60 3 084.42 46.02 4.83 241.38 110.81 195.36 64.79 19.07 41.53 19.10 10.41
Marine fish 13.91 1 994.78 15.14 14.69 2 161.16 2 076.03 166.38 82.32 166.38 82.32
F&D fish 172.85 6.83 980.43 218.87 7.39 7.14 1 055.43 1 008.39 46.02 4.83 75.00 28.49 28.98 - 17.54 61.36 161.56 7.47 3.10
Russian
Shellfish 3.36 2.10 301.79 5.67 2.51 2.41 357.94 340.93 2.31 11.04 56.16 39.30 53.85 36.99 4.11 5.88 77.72 66.27
Federation
Crustaceans 0.78 112.58 0.92 0.89 131.95 125.91 19.37 13.40 19.37 13.40
Molluscs 3.36 1.32 189.21 5.67 1.58 1.52 225.99 215.01 2.31 11.04 36.78 25.90 34.47 23.59 6.28 8.92 64.26 54.20
Shell molluscs 3.36 0.55 78.84 5.67 0.64 0.62 91.47 87.02 2.31 11.04 12.63 8.22 10.32 5.91 18.30 28.11 36.63 28.09
Cephalopods 0.77 110.37 0.94 0.91 134.53 128.00 24.16 17.69 24.16 17.69
Fish 1.88 4.12 48.45 3.46 4.79 4.53 62.90 58.88 1.58 12.99 14.45 10.46 12.87 8.89 10.93 15.09 54.14 45.74
Finfish 1.88 4.12 48.43 3.46 4.79 4.53 62.88 58.86 1.58 12.99 14.44 10.46 12.87 8.88 10.93 15.10 54.12 45.73
Marine fish 2.55 29.94 2.96 2.81 38.85 36.55 8.91 6.63 8.91 6.63
F&D fish 1.88 1.57 18.49 3.46 1.83 1.72 24.03 22.31 1.58 12.99 5.54 3.83 3.96 2.25 28.52 41.21 31.62 24.92
Rwanda Shellfish 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Crustaceans 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Cephalopods
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.00 37.12 2.08 0.00 42.72 41.67 2.50 2.42 0.42 0.34 0.42 0.34 234.91 220.60
Finfish 0.00 28.94 1.62 0.00 32.49 31.79 1.90 1.84 0.28 0.22 0.28 0.22 208.84 195.28
Marine fish 28.28 1.58 31.79 31.12 1.86 1.80 0.28 0.22 0.28 0.22
F&D fish 0.00 0.66 0.04 0.00 0.69 0.67 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 35.45 24.55
Saint Kitts
Shellfish 8.19 0.46 10.24 9.87 0.60 0.57 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.11
and Nevis
Crustaceans 2.43 0.14 3.04 2.95 0.18 0.17 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Molluscs 5.76 0.32 7.19 6.93 0.42 0.40 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.08
Shell molluscs 5.74 0.32 7.17 6.90 0.42 0.40 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.08
Cephalopods 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 0.02 23.20 4.30 0.04 25.85 25.40 4.98 4.84 0.02 10.60 0.67 0.54 0.66 0.52 2.24 2.82 97.68 89.21
Finfish 0.01 20.08 3.72 0.02 22.10 21.75 4.25 4.14 0.01 10.24 0.53 0.42 0.52 0.41 1.48 1.87 112.58 103.07
Marine fish 19.97 3.71 21.99 21.64 4.23 4.12 0.53 0.42 0.53 0.42
F&D fish 0.01 0.11 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.11 0.02 0.02 0.01 10.24 0.00 0.00 - 0.01 - 0.01 498.18 941.49 2.40 1.30
Saint Lucia Shellfish 0.01 3.12 0.58 0.02 3.75 3.65 0.72 0.70 0.01 11.02 0.14 0.12 0.14 0.11 5.07 6.19 70.83 64.63
Crustaceans 0.01 1.09 0.20 0.02 1.31 1.28 0.25 0.24 0.01 11.02 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 14.37 17.18 42.03 37.97
Molluscs 2.03 0.38 2.44 2.37 0.47 0.45 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.07
Shell molluscs 1.88 0.35 2.25 2.19 0.43 0.42 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.07
Cephalopods 0.15 0.03 0.18 0.18 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Fish 18.50 2.03 21.82 21.16 2.42 2.33 0.40 0.30 0.40 0.30
Finfish 15.83 1.73 18.30 17.81 2.03 1.96 0.30 0.23 0.30 0.23
Marine fish 15.80 1.73 18.26 17.77 2.03 1.95 0.30 0.23 0.30 0.23
F&D fish 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Saint Vincent/
Shellfish 2.67 0.29 3.52 3.35 0.39 0.37 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.08
Grenadines
Crustaceans 0.11 0.01 0.15 0.14 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Molluscs 2.56 0.28 3.37 3.21 0.37 0.35 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.07
Shell molluscs 2.55 0.28 3.36 3.20 0.37 0.35 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.07
Cephalopods 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 0.00 44.57 8.65 0.00 50.32 49.29 10.04 9.76 - 0.00 - 0.88 1.39 1.13 1.39 1.14 213.02 200.46
Finfish 0.00 38.79 7.52 0.00 43.43 42.61 8.66 8.44 - 0.00 - 0.88 1.14 0.93 1.14 0.93 200.67 188.87
Marine fish 38.62 7.49 43.26 42.44 8.63 8.40 1.14 0.93 1.14 0.93
F&D fish 0.00 0.16 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.03 0.03 - 0.00 - 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.69 3.99
Samoa Shellfish 5.78 1.12 6.90 6.68 1.38 1.32 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.20
Crustaceans 2.43 0.47 2.93 2.84 0.58 0.56 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.09
Molluscs 3.35 0.65 3.97 3.83 0.79 0.76 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.11
Shell molluscs 3.08 0.60 3.65 3.52 0.73 0.70 0.13 0.10 0.13 0.10
Cephalopods 0.26 0.05 0.32 0.31 0.06 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
103
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
104

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 26.96 5.18 31.75 30.54 6.76 6.44 1.59 1.27 1.59 1.27
Finfish 26.60 5.11 31.28 30.11 6.66 6.35 1.56 1.25 1.56 1.25
Marine fish 26.40 5.07 31.05 29.89 6.61 6.31 1.55 1.24 1.55 1.24
F&D fish 0.20 0.04 0.23 0.22 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Sao Tome and
Shellfish 0.36 0.07 0.46 0.43 0.10 0.09 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Principe
Crustaceans 0.08 0.02 0.11 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Molluscs 0.28 0.05 0.36 0.33 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Shell molluscs 0.28 0.05 0.36 0.33 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Cephalopods
Fish 17.43 12.87 409.77 22.69 13.63 13.46 472.02 461.48 5.26 5.42 62.25 51.93 56.99 46.67 8.45 10.13 35.52 31.81
Finfish 11.76 11.45 364.56 17.02 12.04 11.89 416.78 407.61 5.26 7.68 52.23 43.24 46.96 37.98 10.07 12.17 40.32 36.14
Marine fish 2.63 6.97 221.85 3.37 7.38 7.30 255.55 250.43 0.74 5.07 33.69 28.69 32.96 27.95 2.19 2.57 69.04 64.10
F&D fish 9.13 4.48 142.70 13.65 4.66 4.58 161.23 157.18 4.52 8.38 18.53 14.55 14.01 10.03 24.41 31.08 24.82 21.00
Saudi Arabia Shellfish 5.67 1.42 45.21 5.67 1.60 1.57 55.23 53.87 10.02 8.69 10.02 8.69 22.58 20.42
Crustaceans 5.67 1.32 42.12 5.67 1.49 1.46 51.44 50.20 9.32 8.09 9.32 8.09 21.47 19.41
Molluscs 0.10 3.09 0.11 0.11 3.79 3.68 0.70 0.59 0.70 0.59
Shell molluscs 0.02 0.76 0.03 0.03 0.91 0.88 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.12
Cephalopods 0.07 2.33 0.08 0.08 2.88 2.80 0.55 0.47 0.55 0.47
Fish 1.19 23.79 365.43 2.14 28.89 27.54 512.31 483.80 0.95 12.42 146.88 118.56 145.93 117.61 0.65 0.80 162.36 151.45
Finfish 0.87 22.79 350.10 1.58 27.53 26.28 488.16 461.73 0.71 12.74 138.06 111.82 137.35 111.10 0.52 0.64 176.01 164.69
Marine fish 20.37 312.81 24.73 23.65 438.54 415.39 125.73 102.74 125.73 102.74
F&D fish 0.87 2.43 37.28 1.58 2.80 2.64 49.62 46.34 0.71 12.74 12.33 9.08 11.62 8.37 5.77 7.84 72.38 62.89
Senegal Shellfish 0.32 1.00 15.33 0.56 1.36 1.26 24.15 22.07 0.24 11.56 8.82 6.74 8.58 6.51 2.67 3.50 95.04 85.25
Crustaceans 0.18 2.75 0.25 0.23 4.43 4.09 1.68 1.34 1.68 1.34
Molluscs 0.32 0.82 12.58 0.56 1.11 1.02 19.72 17.98 0.24 11.56 7.14 5.40 6.90 5.17 3.30 4.36 87.29 77.63
Shell molluscs 0.32 0.81 12.47 0.56 1.10 1.01 19.53 17.81 0.24 11.56 7.06 5.34 6.83 5.11 3.34 4.41 86.90 77.25
Cephalopods 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.19 0.17 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06
Fish 6.92 7.98 70.46 6.92 9.27 8.90 80.20 76.35 9.74 5.93 9.74 5.93 19.21 13.17
Finfish 6.92 7.62 67.26 6.92 8.75 8.42 75.77 72.22 8.51 4.99 8.51 4.99 17.39 11.47
Marine fish 4.03 35.58 4.71 4.55 40.78 39.04 5.19 3.47 5.19 3.47
F&D fish 6.92 3.59 31.68 6.92 4.04 3.87 35.00 33.18 3.32 1.52 3.32 1.52 8.14 4.04
Serbia Shellfish 0.36 3.20 0.51 0.48 4.43 4.13 1.23 0.94 1.23 0.94
Crustaceans 0.03 0.22 0.03 0.03 0.29 0.28 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
Molluscs 0.34 2.97 0.48 0.45 4.13 3.85 1.16 0.88 1.16 0.88
Shell molluscs 0.19 1.71 0.26 0.25 2.28 2.13 0.58 0.43 0.58 0.43
Cephalopods 0.14 1.27 0.21 0.20 1.85 1.72 0.58 0.45 0.58 0.45
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 57.45 5.54 65.83 63.29 6.52 6.20 0.97 0.66 0.97 0.66
Finfish 48.97 4.73 54.61 52.67 5.41 5.16 0.68 0.44 0.68 0.44
Marine fish 48.79 4.71 54.40 52.47 5.39 5.14 0.68 0.43 0.68 0.43
F&D fish 0.19 0.02 0.21 0.20 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Seychelles Shellfish 8.47 0.82 11.22 10.62 1.11 1.04 0.29 0.22 0.29 0.22
Crustaceans 6.62 0.64 8.74 8.29 0.86 0.81 0.23 0.17 0.23 0.17
Molluscs 1.85 0.18 2.49 2.33 0.25 0.23 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.05
Shell molluscs 0.16 0.02 0.20 0.19 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods 1.69 0.16 2.28 2.14 0.23 0.21 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Fish 0.08 31.82 207.55 0.08 36.93 35.64 267.04 255.23 59.49 47.79 59.49 47.79 280.18 263.91
Finfish 0.08 31.58 205.97 0.08 36.62 35.35 264.78 253.12 58.81 47.26 58.81 47.26 279.31 263.10
Marine fish 28.09 183.19 32.71 31.62 236.55 226.41 53.36 43.31 53.36 43.31
F&D fish 0.08 3.49 22.78 0.08 3.90 3.73 28.23 26.71 5.46 3.95 5.46 3.95 136.35 121.76
Sierra Leone Shellfish 0.24 1.58 0.31 0.29 2.26 2.11 0.68 0.53 0.68 0.53
Crustaceans 0.09 0.62 0.12 0.12 0.89 0.84 0.27 0.22 0.27 0.22
Molluscs 0.15 0.96 0.19 0.18 1.37 1.27 0.41 0.31 0.41 0.31
Shell molluscs 0.12 0.79 0.15 0.14 1.12 1.04 0.32 0.25 0.32 0.25
Cephalopods 0.03 0.17 0.04 0.03 0.25 0.24 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07
Fish 5.71 46.31 261.68 7.86 52.15 50.93 314.74 304.44 2.15 6.60 53.05 42.89 50.90 40.74 4.05 5.01 59.39 53.45
Finfish 4.86 28.03 158.36 6.66 30.38 29.78 183.36 178.02 1.80 6.52 25.00 19.74 23.19 17.93 7.22 9.14 43.79 38.32
Marine fish 1.41 24.85 140.39 1.97 26.98 26.46 162.80 158.16 0.56 6.95 22.41 17.84 21.85 17.28 2.51 3.15 76.05 68.71
F&D fish 3.45 3.18 17.97 4.69 3.41 3.32 20.56 19.86 1.24 6.34 2.59 1.90 1.35 0.65 47.97 65.47 11.85 9.16
Singapore Shellfish 0.86 18.28 103.32 1.20 21.77 21.15 131.38 126.42 0.35 7.05 28.06 23.16 27.71 22.81 1.24 1.50 102.22 94.84
Crustaceans 0.43 7.03 39.71 0.78 8.36 8.15 50.47 48.70 0.35 12.52 10.76 9.01 10.41 8.66 3.22 3.85 91.76 85.34
Molluscs 0.42 11.26 63.61 0.42 13.41 13.00 80.91 77.72 17.30 14.15 17.30 14.15 111.02 102.92
Shell molluscs 0.42 9.54 53.89 0.42 11.31 10.97 68.23 65.57 14.35 11.71 14.35 11.71 103.47 95.62
Cephalopods 1.72 9.72 2.10 2.03 12.67 12.15 2.95 2.44 2.95 2.44
Fish 1.31 8.70 47.20 1.75 9.98 9.64 54.25 51.85 0.44 5.89 7.05 4.67 6.61 4.24 6.18 9.33 44.78 35.42
Finfish 1.31 8.45 45.85 1.75 9.66 9.33 52.49 50.19 0.44 5.89 6.64 4.36 6.20 3.93 6.57 9.99 43.33 33.99
Marine fish 6.48 35.18 7.44 7.20 40.44 38.75 5.26 3.59 5.26 3.59
F&D fish 1.31 1.97 10.67 1.75 2.22 2.13 12.05 11.44 0.44 5.89 1.38 0.78 0.94 0.34 31.61 56.13 15.43 9.73
Slovakia Shellfish 0.25 1.35 0.32 0.31 1.76 1.66 0.41 0.31 0.41 0.31
Crustaceans 0.21 1.13 0.27 0.26 1.48 1.40 0.35 0.26 0.35 0.26
Molluscs 0.04 0.22 0.05 0.05 0.28 0.26 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.04
Shell molluscs 0.03 0.17 0.04 0.04 0.22 0.21 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.03
Cephalopods 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
105
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
106

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 1.38 10.52 21.75 1.67 11.97 11.66 24.84 23.99 0.30 4.01 3.09 2.25 2.79 1.95 9.68 13.30 26.53 21.36
Finfish 0.93 7.79 16.10 1.06 8.54 8.35 17.72 17.17 0.13 2.66 1.61 1.07 1.48 0.94 8.05 12.09 22.35 16.65
Marine fish 0.06 5.41 11.20 0.07 5.98 5.86 12.40 12.04 0.01 2.94 1.21 0.85 1.20 0.84 0.83 1.18 81.42 70.00
F&D fish 0.86 2.37 4.91 0.98 2.56 2.49 5.31 5.13 0.12 2.64 0.40 0.22 0.28 0.10 29.61 54.70 8.01 4.64
Slovenia Shellfish 0.45 2.73 5.65 0.62 3.43 3.31 7.12 6.82 0.17 6.58 1.47 1.17 1.31 1.00 11.45 14.40 33.72 29.23
Crustaceans 0.44 0.90 0.53 0.51 1.09 1.05 0.19 0.15 0.19 0.15
Molluscs 0.45 2.29 4.75 0.62 2.91 2.80 6.03 5.77 0.17 6.58 1.28 1.02 1.11 0.85 13.19 16.55 30.91 26.71
Shell molluscs 0.45 0.72 1.49 0.62 0.88 0.85 1.82 1.74 0.17 6.58 0.33 0.25 0.16 0.09 51.08 66.48 11.64 9.36
Cephalopods 1.57 3.26 2.03 1.96 4.21 4.02 0.95 0.77 0.95 0.77
Fish 0.00 33.60 19.81 0.00 38.24 37.49 24.68 23.97 0.00 8.57 4.88 4.18 4.88 4.18 0.03 0.03 354.03 340.30
Finfish 0.00 32.63 19.23 0.00 37.06 36.35 23.92 23.25 0.00 8.57 4.69 4.03 4.69 4.03 0.03 0.03 350.53 337.05
Marine fish 32.63 19.23 37.06 36.35 23.92 23.25 4.69 4.03 4.69 4.03
F&D fish 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.57 0.00 0.00 - 0.00 - 0.00 877.70 1 278.00 1.13 0.78
Solomon
Shellfish 0.97 0.57 1.18 1.14 0.76 0.73 0.19 0.15 0.19 0.15
Islands
Crustaceans 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Molluscs 0.95 0.56 1.14 1.10 0.74 0.71 0.18 0.15 0.18 0.15
Shell molluscs 0.95 0.56 1.14 1.10 0.74 0.71 0.18 0.15 0.18 0.15
Cephalopods
Fish 4.49 6.18 338.18 5.45 6.70 6.54 380.73 367.78 0.96 3.95 42.55 29.81 41.59 28.85 2.25 3.22 59.99 50.20
Finfish 2.06 5.51 301.43 2.57 5.91 5.78 335.97 324.91 0.51 4.51 34.55 23.67 34.04 23.17 1.47 2.15 77.78 65.68
Marine fish 0.13 5.32 290.95 0.23 5.71 5.59 324.63 314.03 0.10 11.74 33.68 23.26 33.59 23.16 0.29 0.42 203.82 182.23
F&D fish 1.93 0.19 10.48 2.34 0.20 0.19 11.34 10.88 0.41 3.94 0.86 0.42 0.45 0.00 47.60 98.85 7.68 3.98
South Africa Shellfish 2.42 0.67 36.76 2.88 0.79 0.76 44.75 42.87 0.45 3.47 8.00 6.14 7.55 5.69 5.63 7.34 33.86 28.70
Crustaceans 0.00 0.41 22.48 0.00 0.48 0.47 27.32 26.23 4.84 3.77 4.84 3.77 304.05 284.42
Molluscs 2.42 0.26 14.28 2.87 0.31 0.30 17.44 16.63 0.45 3.47 3.16 2.36 2.71 1.91 14.27 19.07 18.17 14.60
Shell molluscs 2.42 0.14 7.57 2.87 0.16 0.15 9.09 8.67 0.45 3.47 1.51 1.10 1.06 0.65 29.78 40.87 10.20 7.80
Cephalopods 0.12 6.71 0.15 0.14 8.35 7.96 1.64 1.26 1.64 1.26
Fish 0.02 3.23 40.52 0.02 3.64 3.46 52.05 49.05 11.53 8.56 11.53 8.56 256.71 236.08
Finfish 0.02 3.23 40.52 0.02 3.64 3.46 52.05 49.05 11.53 8.56 11.53 8.56 256.71 236.08
Marine fish
F&D fish 0.02 3.23 40.52 0.02 3.64 3.46 52.05 49.05 11.53 8.56 11.53 8.56 256.71 236.08
South Sudan Shellfish
Crustaceans
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 256.43 42.81 1 973.44 255.65 50.32 48.12 2 324.42 2 203.38 - 0.77 - 0.06 350.98 230.88 351.76 231.66 18.82 13.70
Finfish 58.20 29.12 1 342.03 57.43 32.68 31.38 1 509.82 1 436.84 - 0.77 - 0.27 167.79 95.45 168.56 96.22 31.17 21.43
Marine fish 41.99 25.22 1 162.27 41.22 28.41 27.30 1 312.20 1 249.94 - 0.77 - 0.37 149.93 88.22 150.70 89.00 35.52 25.40
F&D fish 16.21 3.90 179.76 16.21 4.28 4.08 197.62 186.90 17.86 7.22 17.86 7.22 16.02 7.65
Spain Shellfish 198.23 13.70 631.40 198.23 17.63 16.74 814.60 766.54 183.20 135.43 183.20 135.43 13.99 10.98
Crustaceans 0.13 3.29 151.43 0.13 4.18 3.98 193.12 182.22 41.69 30.86 41.69 30.86 216.30 197.89
Molluscs 198.09 10.41 479.97 198.09 13.45 12.76 621.48 584.32 141.50 104.58 141.50 104.58 11.38 8.85
Shell molluscs 198.09 7.18 330.79 198.09 9.13 8.67 421.96 397.00 91.18 66.37 91.18 66.37 7.87 5.95
Cephalopods 0.00 3.24 149.18 0.00 4.32 4.09 199.51 187.32 50.33 38.21 50.33 38.21
Fish 39.61 31.02 643.98 67.99 37.17 35.32 787.73 740.78 28.38 11.41 143.75 97.15 115.37 68.77 19.74 29.21 35.86 28.13
Finfish 34.35 29.86 620.00 61.27 35.55 33.82 753.41 709.24 26.92 12.27 133.42 89.59 106.49 62.66 20.18 30.05 37.33 29.26
Marine fish 25.25 524.22 30.25 28.82 640.93 604.50 116.72 80.57 116.72 80.57
F&D fish 34.35 4.61 95.78 61.27 5.31 4.99 112.48 104.74 26.92 12.27 16.70 9.01 - 10.22 - 17.91 161.22 298.73 8.25 4.77
Sri Lanka Shellfish 5.26 1.16 23.99 6.72 1.62 1.50 34.32 31.54 1.46 5.01 10.33 7.57 8.88 6.11 14.11 19.27 24.27 19.51
Crustaceans 5.25 0.98 20.42 6.69 1.38 1.28 29.25 26.95 1.45 4.99 8.83 6.54 7.39 5.09 16.38 22.12 21.82 17.57
Molluscs 0.02 0.17 3.56 0.03 0.24 0.22 5.07 4.59 0.01 11.68 1.50 1.03 1.49 1.01 0.78 1.13 149.21 131.19
Shell molluscs 0.02 0.13 2.67 0.03 0.17 0.16 3.70 3.36 0.01 11.68 1.03 0.69 1.02 0.68 1.13 1.69 131.45 113.75
Cephalopods 0.04 0.89 0.06 0.06 1.36 1.23 0.47 0.34 0.47 0.34
Fish 1.98 0.93 38.03 1.98 0.98 0.95 44.76 42.97 6.73 4.96 6.73 4.96 34.49 28.51
Finfish 1.98 0.93 38.03 1.98 0.98 0.95 44.76 42.97 6.73 4.96 6.73 4.96 34.49 28.51
Marine fish 0.13 5.28 0.14 0.14 6.49 6.28 1.20 1.00 1.20 1.00
F&D fish 1.98 0.80 32.74 1.98 0.83 0.81 38.27 36.69 5.53 3.96 5.53 3.96 30.55 24.58
Sudan Shellfish
Crustaceans
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Fish 0.08 16.66 9.09 0.08 18.74 18.35 10.63 10.30 1.54 1.22 1.54 1.22 83.14 75.18
Finfish 0.00 9.97 5.44 0.00 10.77 10.58 6.11 5.93 0.67 0.50 0.67 0.50 167.19 152.12
Marine fish 9.06 4.94 9.80 9.63 5.56 5.40 0.62 0.47 0.62 0.47
F&D fish 0.00 0.91 0.50 0.00 0.97 0.94 0.55 0.53 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.03 62.23 49.65
Suriname Shellfish 0.07 6.69 3.65 0.07 7.97 7.78 4.52 4.36 0.87 0.72 0.87 0.72 66.64 60.85
Crustaceans 0.07 6.64 3.62 0.07 7.92 7.72 4.49 4.33 0.87 0.71 0.87 0.71 66.44 60.68
Molluscs 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Shell molluscs 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Cephalopods 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
107
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
108

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.09 1.30 1.68 0.07 1.35 1.33 1.86 1.81 - 0.03 - 6.53 0.17 0.13 0.20 0.15 23.55 18.92
Finfish 0.09 1.26 1.63 0.07 1.31 1.29 1.79 1.75 - 0.03 - 6.53 0.16 0.12 0.19 0.15 22.70 18.10
Marine fish 0.79 1.02 0.82 0.82 1.13 1.11 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.08
F&D fish 0.09 0.47 0.61 0.07 0.48 0.47 0.66 0.64 - 0.03 - 6.53 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.06 9.56 6.58
Swaziland Shellfish 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Crustaceans 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Fish 15.57 30.48 299.19 19.89 34.99 34.15 355.28 343.76 4.33 5.03 56.08 44.71 51.76 40.38 7.71 9.68 35.70 31.09
Finfish 14.07 22.09 216.84 18.55 24.48 23.95 248.56 241.02 4.48 5.69 31.72 24.29 27.24 19.80 14.13 18.46 26.62 22.21
Marine fish 14.73 144.60 16.45 16.13 167.06 162.35 22.46 17.81 22.46 17.81
F&D fish 14.07 7.36 72.24 18.55 8.03 7.82 81.50 78.67 4.48 5.69 9.27 6.47 4.78 1.99 48.37 69.27 10.65 7.86
Sweden Shellfish 1.50 8.39 82.36 1.34 10.51 10.21 106.72 102.74 - 0.16 - 2.19 24.36 20.42 24.52 20.58 76.77 71.02
Crustaceans 0.00 7.51 73.73 0.00 9.44 9.17 95.85 92.33 22.11 18.63 22.11 18.63 598.15 574.65
Molluscs 1.50 0.88 8.63 1.34 1.07 1.03 10.87 10.41 - 0.16 - 2.19 2.25 1.79 2.40 1.94 20.12 17.01
Shell molluscs 1.50 0.83 8.19 1.34 1.02 0.98 10.32 9.89 - 0.16 - 2.19 2.13 1.70 2.29 1.85 19.37 16.36
Cephalopods 0.04 0.43 0.05 0.05 0.55 0.52 0.12 0.09 0.12 0.09
Fish 1.43 17.69 147.49 1.59 19.36 19.02 168.13 163.65 0.16 2.14 20.63 16.22 20.47 16.06 0.78 0.99 72.77 65.23
Finfish 1.43 13.41 111.81 1.59 14.36 14.12 124.73 121.53 0.16 2.14 12.92 9.78 12.76 9.62 1.24 1.64 58.53 50.89
Marine fish 7.28 60.72 7.82 7.71 67.96 66.36 7.25 5.67 7.25 5.67
F&D fish 1.43 6.13 51.09 1.59 6.54 6.41 56.76 55.18 0.16 2.14 5.68 4.11 5.52 3.95 2.82 3.89 37.75 31.07
Switzerland Shellfish 4.28 35.69 5.00 4.89 43.40 42.11 7.71 6.44 7.71 6.44
Crustaceans 2.63 21.92 3.08 3.02 26.72 25.97 4.80 4.07 4.80 4.07
Molluscs 1.65 13.77 1.92 1.88 16.68 16.14 2.91 2.38 2.91 2.38
Shell molluscs 1.25 10.38 1.44 1.41 12.53 12.13 2.14 1.75 2.14 1.75
Cephalopods 0.41 3.39 0.48 0.47 4.15 4.01 0.76 0.63 0.76 0.63
Fish 365.23 32.99 771.50 421.62 40.21 38.73 940.71 896.72 56.40 2.91 169.20 125.64 112.81 69.25 33.33 44.89 7.91 6.09
Finfish 235.41 15.45 361.26 279.28 17.14 16.61 401.00 384.57 43.87 3.48 39.75 23.52 - 4.12 - 20.35 110.37 186.52 3.17 1.92
Marine fish 59.73 8.65 202.22 92.94 9.66 9.40 226.10 217.56 33.21 9.25 23.88 15.45 - 9.33 - 17.76 139.05 214.89 6.96 4.71
F&D fish 175.68 6.80 159.04 186.34 7.48 7.21 174.90 167.01 10.66 1.18 15.86 8.06 5.20 - 2.59 67.19 132.15 1.74 0.90
Taiwan
Province of Shellfish 129.81 17.54 410.25 142.34 23.07 22.12 539.71 512.15 12.53 1.86 129.46 102.13 116.93 89.60 9.68 12.27 14.84 12.31
China
Crustaceans 24.10 4.73 110.61 30.53 6.21 5.98 145.26 138.52 6.43 4.85 34.65 27.98 28.22 21.54 18.57 23.00 19.51 16.66
Molluscs 105.71 12.81 299.64 111.81 16.86 16.14 394.45 373.63 6.10 1.13 94.81 74.15 88.71 68.05 6.43 8.22 13.66 11.21
Shell molluscs 105.71 7.40 173.10 111.81 9.61 9.21 224.77 213.20 6.10 1.13 51.67 40.20 45.57 34.10 11.80 15.17 8.28 6.66
Cephalopods 5.41 126.54 7.25 6.93 169.68 160.43 43.14 33.95 43.14 33.95
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.37 0.50 4.30 0.37 0.54 0.52 5.12 4.89 0.82 0.60 0.82 0.60 26.14 21.07
Finfish 0.37 0.49 4.24 0.37 0.53 0.51 5.05 4.83 0.80 0.59 0.80 0.59 25.79 20.76
Marine fish 0.32 2.74 0.34 0.33 3.27 3.13 0.53 0.40 0.53 0.40
F&D fish 0.37 0.18 1.50 0.37 0.19 0.18 1.78 1.69 0.28 0.19 0.28 0.19 11.68 8.58
Tajikistan Shellfish 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Crustaceans 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods
Fish 5.28 5.48 297.65 9.42 6.23 5.92 393.54 370.26 4.14 12.27 95.89 72.77 91.75 68.63 4.32 5.69 80.49 71.36
Finfish 4.84 5.39 292.87 8.76 6.11 5.80 386.00 363.27 3.92 12.59 93.13 70.56 89.21 66.64 4.21 5.56 82.47 73.16
Marine fish 0.77 41.75 0.87 0.83 54.97 52.22 13.22 10.49 13.22 10.49
Tanzania,
F&D fish 4.84 4.62 251.12 8.76 5.24 4.97 331.03 311.04 3.92 12.59 79.91 60.07 75.99 56.15 4.91 6.53 77.26 68.05
United
Republic of Shellfish 0.44 0.09 4.78 0.66 0.12 0.11 7.54 6.99 0.22 8.43 2.76 2.21 2.54 1.99 7.93 9.91 48.79 43.27
(including
Crustaceans 0.44 0.05 2.84 0.66 0.07 0.07 4.53 4.22 0.22 8.43 1.69 1.38 1.47 1.16 12.99 15.91 37.08 32.83
Zanzibar)
Molluscs 0.04 1.94 0.05 0.04 3.02 2.77 1.08 0.83 1.08 0.83
Shell molluscs 0.02 1.28 0.03 0.03 1.93 1.78 0.66 0.50 0.66 0.50
Cephalopods 0.01 0.66 0.02 0.02 1.08 0.99 0.42 0.33 0.42 0.33
Fish 838.27 24.67 1 678.53 774.89 29.77 27.95 2 042.37 1 899.54 - 63.37 - 1.56 363.84 221.86 427.21 285.24 7.48 4.81
Finfish 398.67 19.32 1 315.11 352.68 22.32 21.03 1 531.09 1 429.28 - 46.00 - 2.42 215.97 114.84 261.97 160.83 9.04 5.19
Marine fish 2.68 11.06 752.86 2.44 12.77 12.07 875.84 820.56 - 0.25 - 1.92 122.97 68.07 123.22 68.32 115.82 92.40
F&D fish 395.99 8.26 562.25 350.24 9.55 8.96 655.25 608.73 - 45.75 - 2.43 93.00 46.76 138.75 92.51 4.31 2.26
Thailand Shellfish 439.59 5.34 363.42 422.22 7.45 6.92 511.28 470.26 - 17.38 - 0.80 147.87 107.03 165.24 124.40 5.97 4.45
Crustaceans 279.48 1.42 96.59 268.23 1.92 1.79 131.51 121.44 - 11.25 - 0.82 34.92 24.90 46.17 36.15 2.38 1.72
Molluscs 160.11 3.92 266.82 153.99 5.54 5.13 379.77 348.82 - 6.12 - 0.78 112.95 82.13 119.07 88.25 11.27 8.63
Shell molluscs 160.11 1.81 123.29 153.99 2.45 2.27 167.94 154.48 - 6.12 - 0.78 44.65 31.25 50.77 37.37 5.04 3.63
Cephalopods 2.11 143.53 3.09 2.86 211.83 194.34 68.30 50.88 68.30 50.88
Fish 0.06 5.77 6.91 0.06 4.38 4.74 5.82 6.24 0.00 1.52 - 1.09 - 0.66 - 1.09 - 0.66 100.00 100.00
Finfish 0.06 5.58 6.68 0.06 4.27 4.62 5.68 6.08 0.00 1.55 - 1.00 - 0.59 - 1.01 - 0.60 100.00 100.00
Marine fish 5.51 6.60 4.22 4.56 5.60 6.00 - 0.99 - 0.59 - 0.99 - 0.59 100.00 100.00
F&D fish 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.00 1.55 - 0.01 - 0.00 - 0.01 - 0.01 100.00 100.00
Timor-Leste Shellfish 0.00 0.19 0.23 0.00 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.16 - 0.09 - 0.07 - 0.09 - 0.07 100.00 100.00
Crustaceans 0.00 0.11 0.13 0.00 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 - 0.05 - 0.04 - 0.05 - 0.04 100.00 100.00
Molluscs 0.08 0.09 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 - 0.04 - 0.03 - 0.04 - 0.03 100.00 100.00
Shell molluscs 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 - 0.02 - 0.02 - 0.02 - 0.02 100.00 100.00
Cephalopods 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 - 0.02 - 0.01 - 0.02 - 0.01
109
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
110

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.02 11.51 85.15 0.02 13.36 12.89 112.19 107.20 27.04 22.09 27.04 22.09 312.47 296.14
Finfish 0.02 11.49 85.07 0.02 13.35 12.88 112.07 107.08 27.00 22.06 27.00 22.06 312.35 296.03
Marine fish 10.21 75.54 11.90 11.50 99.96 95.64 24.43 20.14 24.43 20.14
F&D fish 0.02 1.29 9.53 0.02 1.44 1.38 12.11 11.45 2.57 1.92 2.57 1.92 158.09 143.53
Togo Shellfish 0.01 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.12 0.11 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Crustaceans 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Molluscs 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Cephalopods 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fish 0.00 23.13 2.46 0.00 27.00 26.36 3.01 2.91 0.55 0.45 0.55 0.45 400.05 380.76
Finfish 19.63 2.09 22.59 22.11 2.52 2.44 0.43 0.35 0.43 0.35
Marine fish 19.56 2.08 22.52 22.04 2.51 2.44 0.43 0.35 0.43 0.35
F&D fish 0.07 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tonga Shellfish 0.00 3.51 0.37 0.00 4.41 4.26 0.49 0.47 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.10 268.22 253.85
Crustaceans 2.73 0.29 3.45 3.33 0.38 0.37 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.08
Molluscs 0.00 0.77 0.08 0.00 0.97 0.93 0.11 0.10 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 170.67 158.33
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.56 0.06 0.00 0.68 0.66 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 150.63 138.85
Cephalopods 0.22 0.02 0.28 0.27 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Fish 0.01 23.77 32.39 0.01 26.57 26.08 36.62 35.58 4.23 3.21 4.23 3.21 265.27 245.64
Finfish 0.01 20.42 27.82 0.01 22.51 22.13 31.03 30.19 3.21 2.39 3.21 2.39 248.31 228.35
Marine fish 19.98 27.23 22.05 21.69 30.40 29.58 3.17 2.38 3.17 2.38
F&D fish 0.01 0.44 0.59 0.01 0.45 0.44 0.63 0.60 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.01 43.55 21.16
Trinidad and
Shellfish 0.00 3.35 4.57 0.00 4.06 3.95 5.60 5.39 1.02 0.82 1.02 0.82 427.86 405.20
Tobago
Crustaceans 0.00 2.01 2.73 0.00 2.43 2.37 3.35 3.23 0.61 0.50 0.61 0.50 376.33 357.43
Molluscs 1.35 1.84 1.63 1.58 2.25 2.16 0.41 0.32 0.41 0.32
Shell molluscs 0.81 1.11 0.98 0.95 1.35 1.29 0.24 0.19 0.24 0.19
Cephalopods 0.54 0.73 0.65 0.63 0.90 0.86 0.17 0.13 0.17 0.13
Fish 14.44 13.60 153.93 21.98 15.47 14.96 183.95 175.88 7.55 8.77 30.02 22.05 22.47 14.50 25.14 34.23 25.22 20.37
Finfish 14.31 12.61 142.73 21.85 14.17 13.73 168.49 161.39 7.55 8.84 25.76 18.74 18.21 11.20 29.30 40.26 22.87 18.23
Marine fish 13.64 12.42 140.52 21.25 13.97 13.53 166.05 159.08 7.62 9.28 25.53 18.64 17.91 11.02 29.84 40.86 23.49 18.81
F&D fish 0.67 0.20 2.21 0.60 0.21 0.20 2.44 2.31 - 0.07 - 2.22 0.23 0.10 0.30 0.17 6.12 2.87
Tunisia Shellfish 0.13 0.99 11.20 0.13 1.30 1.23 15.46 14.50 4.26 3.30 4.26 3.30 102.74 93.04
Crustaceans 0.40 4.53 0.51 0.49 6.09 5.75 1.56 1.22 1.56 1.22
Molluscs 0.13 0.59 6.67 0.13 0.79 0.74 9.37 8.75 2.69 2.08 2.69 2.08 85.61 76.77
Shell molluscs 0.13 0.08 0.88 0.13 0.09 0.09 1.12 1.05 0.24 0.16 0.24 0.16 23.20 17.86
Cephalopods 0.51 5.79 0.69 0.66 8.25 7.71 2.46 1.92 2.46 1.92
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 268.45 5.96 471.93 353.72 6.69 6.50 552.05 530.57 85.27 5.67 80.12 58.91 - 5.15 - 26.36 106.42 144.75 5.36 4.05
Finfish 267.67 5.48 434.06 352.94 6.10 5.93 503.30 484.44 85.27 5.69 69.23 50.63 - 16.04 - 34.64 123.16 168.42 4.71 3.53
Marine fish 128.51 3.88 306.85 171.50 4.36 4.25 359.84 347.24 42.99 5.94 52.99 40.57 10.00 - 2.43 81.13 105.98 7.15 5.64
F&D fish 139.16 1.61 127.22 181.44 1.74 1.68 143.46 137.20 42.28 5.45 16.24 10.06 - 26.03 - 32.22 260.28 420.20 2.23 1.41
Turkey Shellfish 0.78 0.48 37.87 0.78 0.59 0.56 48.76 46.12 10.89 8.28 10.89 8.28 71.73 63.25
Crustaceans 0.05 3.94 0.06 0.06 5.20 4.96 1.26 1.02 1.26 1.02
Molluscs 0.78 0.43 33.93 0.78 0.53 0.50 43.56 41.17 9.63 7.26 9.63 7.26 67.84 59.40
Shell molluscs 0.78 0.36 28.69 0.78 0.44 0.42 36.47 34.48 7.77 5.80 7.77 5.80 61.39 53.16
Cephalopods 0.07 5.24 0.09 0.08 7.09 6.69 1.85 1.45 1.85 1.45
Fish 0.03 3.72 20.14 0.03 4.13 3.90 23.61 22.02 3.47 1.90 3.47 1.90 161.44 132.05
Finfish 0.03 3.71 20.07 0.03 4.12 3.89 23.52 21.94 3.45 1.88 3.45 1.88 161.09 131.68
Marine fish 0.82 4.46 0.92 0.88 5.28 4.97 0.82 0.51 0.82 0.51
F&D fish 0.03 2.89 15.61 0.03 3.19 3.01 18.24 16.98 2.63 1.37 2.63 1.37 147.46 117.70
Turkmenistan Shellfish 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.09 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Crustaceans 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Molluscs 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Fish 0.00 43.33 0.43 0.00 50.46 48.96 0.50 0.49 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 96.79 88.06
Finfish 0.00 42.83 0.43 0.00 49.82 48.35 0.50 0.48 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 96.03 87.34
Marine fish 42.63 0.43 49.61 48.15 0.50 0.48 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
F&D fish 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.17
Tuvalu Shellfish 0.50 0.01 0.64 0.61 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Crustaceans 0.50 0.01 0.64 0.61 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Molluscs
Shell molluscs
Cephalopods
Fish 115.58 12.84 509.53 142.90 14.25 13.64 664.03 629.79 27.32 4.33 154.51 120.53 127.19 93.21 17.68 22.67 18.50 15.36
Finfish 115.58 12.84 509.48 142.90 14.25 13.64 663.96 629.71 27.32 4.33 154.48 120.51 127.16 93.19 17.68 22.67 18.50 15.36
Marine fish 0.04 1.55 0.04 0.04 2.01 1.93 0.47 0.38 0.47 0.38
F&D fish 115.58 12.80 507.93 142.90 14.21 13.60 661.94 627.79 27.32 4.33 154.01 120.13 126.70 92.81 17.74 22.74 18.46 15.32
Uganda Shellfish 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Crustaceans 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cephalopods
111
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
112

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 24.07 17.05 762.74 24.72 20.01 19.24 871.63 829.67 0.65 0.53 108.90 67.32 108.25 66.67 0.59 0.96 40.75 30.58
Finfish 23.99 15.26 682.48 24.63 17.67 17.03 769.46 734.34 0.65 0.53 86.98 52.20 86.33 51.55 0.74 1.24 35.84 26.00
Marine fish 1.10 13.03 582.80 1.74 15.13 14.60 658.91 629.70 0.65 9.71 76.11 47.19 75.46 46.55 0.85 1.37 134.16 113.18
F&D fish 22.89 2.23 99.69 22.89 2.54 2.43 110.56 104.64 10.87 5.00 10.87 5.00 8.08 4.03
Ukraine Shellfish 0.09 1.79 80.25 0.09 2.35 2.21 102.17 95.33 21.92 15.12 21.92 15.12 202.67 181.12
Crustaceans 0.00 0.51 22.64 0.00 0.68 0.64 29.43 27.62 6.79 4.99 6.79 4.99 476.45 442.13
Molluscs 0.09 1.29 57.61 0.09 1.67 1.57 72.74 67.71 15.13 10.13 15.13 10.13 181.84 160.24
Shell molluscs 0.09 1.28 57.38 0.09 1.66 1.56 72.43 67.42 15.05 10.07 15.05 10.07 181.55 159.96
Cephalopods 0.01 0.24 0.01 0.01 0.32 0.29 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06
Fish 0.93 23.55 216.95 1.62 26.08 25.52 257.78 250.28 0.69 11.71 40.83 33.43 40.14 32.74 1.69 2.06 113.93 105.74
Finfish 0.53 21.10 194.34 1.00 23.13 22.67 228.65 222.30 0.47 13.54 34.31 28.05 33.84 27.58 1.37 1.68 130.89 121.92
Marine fish 0.37 20.28 186.81 0.70 22.26 21.82 220.05 213.99 0.34 14.03 33.24 27.27 32.90 26.93 1.02 1.24 147.05 137.56
F&D fish 0.17 0.82 7.53 0.30 0.87 0.85 8.60 8.31 0.13 12.41 1.07 0.78 0.94 0.65 12.32 16.94 49.43 41.60
United Arab
Shellfish 0.40 2.45 22.61 0.62 2.95 2.85 29.13 27.98 0.22 9.09 6.52 5.38 6.30 5.16 3.35 4.06 76.77 70.53
Emirates
Crustaceans 0.40 1.70 15.70 0.62 2.06 1.99 20.32 19.56 0.22 9.09 4.62 3.87 4.40 3.65 4.73 5.65 65.79 60.48
Molluscs 0.75 6.91 0.89 0.86 8.81 8.42 1.90 1.52 1.90 1.52
Shell molluscs 0.53 4.87 0.62 0.60 6.12 5.85 1.25 0.98 1.25 0.98
Cephalopods 0.22 2.04 0.27 0.26 2.69 2.57 0.65 0.53 0.65 0.53
Fish 207.84 20.58 1 335.65 219.71 23.30 22.81 1 558.28 1 512.08 11.87 1.12 222.63 177.08 210.76 165.21 5.33 6.70 15.68 13.12
Finfish 187.70 15.36 997.04 206.09 16.92 16.60 1 131.72 1 100.55 18.39 1.89 134.67 103.99 116.28 85.59 13.66 17.69 11.42 9.22
Marine fish 0.30 12.32 799.69 0.30 13.63 13.39 911.57 887.55 111.88 88.24 111.88 88.24 227.66 212.52
F&D fish 187.40 3.04 197.35 205.79 3.29 3.21 220.14 213.00 18.39 1.89 22.79 15.74 4.40 - 2.65 80.69 116.85 2.32 1.63
United
Shellfish 20.14 5.22 338.60 13.62 6.38 6.21 426.56 411.53 - 6.53 - 7.53 87.96 73.09 94.48 79.62 39.94 35.86
Kingdom
Crustaceans 3.73 242.36 4.60 4.49 307.71 297.38 65.35 55.14 65.35 55.14
Molluscs 20.14 1.48 96.25 13.62 1.78 1.72 118.85 114.15 - 6.53 - 7.53 22.60 17.95 29.13 24.48 16.24 13.59
Shell molluscs 20.14 1.28 83.06 13.62 1.53 1.49 102.50 98.50 - 6.53 - 7.53 19.44 15.47 25.96 22.00 14.46 12.07
Cephalopods 0.20 13.18 0.24 0.24 16.35 15.65 3.17 2.48 3.17 2.48
Fish 424.52 21.70 7 009.54 431.78 24.90 23.95 8 332.84 7 942.38 7.26 0.34 1 323.30 936.24 1 316.04 928.99 0.55 0.78 32.71 26.23
Finfish 206.24 12.46 4 022.92 207.26 13.53 13.04 4 527.13 4 325.16 1.02 0.10 504.21 304.19 503.19 303.16 0.20 0.34 28.07 19.87
Marine fish 2.81 7.18 2 319.38 3.83 7.81 7.55 2 614.61 2 503.60 1.02 6.40 295.24 185.35 294.22 184.33 0.35 0.55 154.23 131.89
F&D fish 203.43 5.28 1 703.54 203.43 5.71 5.49 1 912.51 1 821.55 208.97 118.83 208.97 118.83 15.18 9.64
United States
Shellfish 218.28 9.25 2 986.62 224.52 11.37 10.91 3 805.71 3 617.23 6.24 0.56 819.09 632.06 812.86 625.82 0.76 0.99 36.58 31.25
of America
Crustaceans 60.48 5.56 1 795.45 69.49 6.87 6.60 2 300.05 2 189.18 9.01 2.81 504.60 394.60 495.59 385.60 1.78 2.28 56.35 49.72
Molluscs 157.80 3.69 1 191.17 155.03 4.50 4.31 1 505.66 1 428.05 - 2.77 - 0.35 314.49 237.45 317.26 240.22 24.51 20.16
Shell molluscs 157.80 3.34 1 077.26 155.03 4.06 3.89 1 360.51 1 290.75 - 2.77 - 0.35 283.25 214.01 286.02 216.78 22.82 18.70
Cephalopods 0.35 113.91 0.43 0.41 145.15 137.29 31.25 23.44 31.25 23.44
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
Demand and supply growth
Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Appendix

Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 0.25 7.48 25.73 0.42 8.47 8.21 29.65 28.46 0.16 10.52 3.93 2.74 3.76 2.58 4.16 5.95 75.41 64.12
Finfish 0.25 6.52 22.43 0.41 7.25 7.04 25.38 24.42 0.16 10.52 2.95 2.00 2.79 1.84 5.53 8.16 66.37 55.03
Marine fish 5.06 17.40 5.66 5.51 19.82 19.11 2.42 1.71 2.42 1.71
F&D fish 0.25 1.46 5.03 0.41 1.59 1.53 5.56 5.31 0.16 10.52 0.53 0.29 0.37 0.12 30.68 56.82 25.52 16.46
Uruguay Shellfish 0.00 0.96 3.30 0.00 1.22 1.17 4.27 4.04 0.97 0.74 0.97 0.74 540.82 507.29
Crustaceans 0.00 0.16 0.55 0.00 0.21 0.20 0.72 0.69 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.14 352.23 332.29
Molluscs 0.80 2.75 1.01 0.97 3.55 3.35 0.80 0.61 0.80 0.61
Shell molluscs 0.60 2.07 0.76 0.72 2.65 2.51 0.58 0.44 0.58 0.44
Cephalopods 0.20 0.67 0.26 0.24 0.90 0.84 0.22 0.17 0.22 0.17
Fish 30.53 0.74 22.31 51.40 0.83 0.78 26.50 24.68 20.87 10.98 4.19 2.39 - 16.68 - 18.49 498.13 873.99 2.61 1.52
Finfish 30.53 0.74 22.21 51.40 0.83 0.78 26.36 24.56 20.87 10.98 4.15 2.36 - 16.72 - 18.51 502.72 883.66 2.58 1.50
Marine fish 0.30 8.90 0.33 0.32 10.65 10.00 1.75 1.10 1.75 1.10
F&D fish 30.53 0.44 13.31 51.40 0.49 0.46 15.71 14.56 20.87 10.98 2.40 1.26 - 18.47 - 19.61 868.97 1 653.13 1.53 0.81
Uzbekistan Shellfish 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.12 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Crustaceans 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Molluscs 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Fish 0.09 30.98 8.29 0.11 35.27 34.61 10.48 10.18 0.02 4.43 2.19 1.89 2.17 1.87 0.96 1.11 92.28 86.93
Finfish 0.07 28.76 7.69 0.09 32.54 31.96 9.66 9.40 0.02 4.43 1.97 1.70 1.96 1.69 0.86 0.99 96.45 91.02
Marine fish 28.36 7.59 32.12 31.56 9.54 9.28 1.96 1.69 1.96 1.69
F&D fish 0.07 0.40 0.11 0.09 0.42 0.40 0.12 0.12 0.02 4.43 0.02 0.01 - 0.00 - 0.01 102.32 144.64 4.34 3.14
Vanuatu Shellfish 0.02 2.22 0.59 0.02 2.73 2.65 0.81 0.78 0.00 4.42 0.22 0.19 0.21 0.18 1.87 2.19 69.36 64.40
Crustaceans 0.02 1.29 0.35 0.02 1.58 1.54 0.47 0.45 0.00 4.42 0.13 0.11 0.12 0.10 3.25 3.77 53.23 49.28
Molluscs 0.93 0.25 1.15 1.11 0.34 0.33 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.08
Shell molluscs 0.31 0.08 0.38 0.37 0.11 0.11 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Cephalopods 0.62 0.16 0.77 0.74 0.23 0.22 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Fish 35.73 7.80 244.27 51.07 7.34 7.49 244.33 246.86 15.34 7.41 0.06 2.73 - 15.29 - 12.62 26 686.25 562.52 0.03 1.48
Finfish 9.07 6.41 200.66 12.79 6.09 6.21 202.90 204.48 3.71 7.10 2.24 3.94 - 1.47 0.22 165.44 94.31 4.52 7.47
Marine fish 0.00 5.25 164.31 0.00 4.98 5.07 165.73 166.97 1.41 2.75 1.41 2.75 258.87 309.93
F&D fish 9.07 1.16 36.34 12.79 1.12 1.14 37.18 37.51 3.71 7.10 0.83 1.19 - 2.88 - 2.53 446.41 312.60 1.77 2.49
Venezuela,
Bolivarian Shellfish 26.65 1.39 43.62 38.28 1.24 1.29 41.43 42.38 11.63 7.51 - 2.19 - 1.21 - 13.82 - 12.84 100.00 100.00
Republic off
Crustaceans 26.65 0.59 18.41 38.28 0.52 0.54 17.40 17.78 11.63 7.51 - 1.01 - 0.62 - 12.65 - 12.25 100.00 100.00
Molluscs 0.00 0.80 25.20 0.00 0.72 0.75 24.03 24.60 - 1.17 - 0.59 - 1.17 - 0.59 100.00 100.00
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.75 23.51 0.00 0.67 0.70 22.45 22.97 - 1.07 - 0.53 - 1.07 - 0.53 100.00 100.00
Cephalopods 0.05 1.69 0.05 0.05 1.58 1.63 - 0.11 - 0.06 - 0.11 - 0.06
113
TABLE A: SUMMARY OF DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP PROJECTIONS1
114

Demand and supply growth


Baseline situation in the mid-2010s2 Projected situation in the early 2020s3 Demand-supply gap in the early 2020s
from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s
Annual aquaculture growth
rate needed to close
Extra demand generated
Country or Total demand Extra demand minus extra Ratio of extra supply to demand-supply gap (%)
Per capita demand (kg) Trend aquaculture growth by income and population
country Species group (000 tonnes) supply (000 tonnes) extra demand6 (%)
Aquaculture Per capita Total Aquaculture growth (000 tonnes)
group
production consumption consumption production
(000 tonnes) (kg) (000 tonnes) (000 tonnes) Extra food Annual
Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 fish supply growth Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5 Standard4 Conservative5
(000 tonnes) rate (%)
Fish 3 645.67 34.87 3 275.88 4 506.54 49.16 44.16 4 846.02 4 304.27 860.87 4.33 1 570.13 1 030.41 709.26 169.54 54.83 83.55 7.43 5.10
Finfish 2 951.70 25.60 2 405.35 3 647.13 32.90 29.77 3 243.55 2 902.08 695.44 4.32 838.19 498.21 142.76 - 197.22 82.97 139.59 5.13 3.17
Marine fish 120.02 12.26 1 151.87 167.67 15.63 14.25 1 541.15 1 388.90 47.65 6.92 389.29 237.75 341.64 190.10 12.24 20.04 33.52 24.41
F&D fish 2 831.68 13.34 1 253.49 3 479.46 17.27 15.52 1 702.39 1 513.18 647.79 4.21 448.91 260.47 - 198.88 - 387.32 144.30 248.70 2.99 1.78
Viet Nam Shellfish 693.98 9.27 870.53 859.41 16.25 14.38 1 602.47 1 402.19 165.43 4.37 731.94 532.19 566.51 366.76 22.60 31.09 15.49 12.06
Crustaceans 492.00 4.60 431.78 600.93 7.97 7.09 786.07 691.42 108.93 4.08 354.29 259.91 245.36 150.98 30.75 41.91 11.46 8.85
Molluscs 201.98 4.67 438.76 258.48 8.28 7.29 816.40 710.77 56.50 5.06 377.65 272.28 321.14 215.78 14.96 20.75 23.47 18.62
Shell molluscs 201.98 2.62 246.09 258.48 4.41 3.90 435.05 379.74 56.50 5.06 188.96 133.80 132.46 77.30 29.90 42.23 14.12 10.70
Cephalopods 2.05 192.67 3.87 3.40 381.35 331.03 188.69 138.48 188.69 138.48
Fish 0.10 2.35 63.90 0.10 2.67 2.60 81.07 78.07 17.18 14.21 17.18 14.21 180.22 169.86
Finfish 2.31 62.81 2.62 2.55 79.52 76.59 16.70 13.82 16.70 13.82
Marine fish 2.27 61.76 2.58 2.51 78.23 75.37 16.48 13.65 16.48 13.65
F&D fish 0.04 1.06 0.04 0.04 1.28 1.23 0.23 0.17 0.23 0.17
Yemen Shellfish 0.10 0.04 1.08 0.10 0.05 0.05 1.56 1.48 0.47 0.39 0.47 0.39 41.87 37.69
Crustaceans 0.10 0.03 0.90 0.10 0.04 0.04 1.29 1.22 0.39 0.33 0.39 0.33 37.55 33.78
Molluscs 0.01 0.19 0.01 0.01 0.27 0.25 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07
Shell molluscs 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02
Cephalopods 0.00 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.16 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Fish 23.50 5.93 97.72 35.83 6.49 6.26 124.36 118.84 12.33 8.80 26.64 21.18 14.31 8.85 46.27 58.21 16.36 13.71
Finfish 23.50 5.92 97.52 35.83 6.47 6.24 124.08 118.58 12.33 8.80 26.55 21.11 14.23 8.78 46.42 58.40 16.32 13.67
Marine fish 0.69 11.29 0.75 0.73 14.35 13.81 3.06 2.53 3.06 2.53
F&D fish 23.50 5.24 86.23 35.83 5.72 5.52 109.73 104.77 12.33 8.80 23.49 18.58 11.17 6.25 52.47 66.34 14.86 12.35
Zambia Shellfish 0.01 0.20 0.01 0.01 0.28 0.27 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07
Crustaceans 0.00 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.11 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Molluscs 0.01 0.12 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.16 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.14 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Fish 14.06 2.68 42.29 22.89 2.89 2.81 51.07 49.05 8.83 10.24 8.78 6.79 - 0.05 - 2.04 100.57 130.06 10.19 8.20
Finfish 14.06 2.66 42.05 22.89 2.87 2.79 50.75 48.75 8.83 10.24 8.70 6.73 - 0.13 - 2.10 101.47 131.28 10.12 8.14
Marine fish 0.71 11.25 0.77 0.75 13.57 13.10 2.32 1.86 2.32 1.86
F&D fish 14.06 1.95 30.80 22.89 2.11 2.04 37.18 35.65 8.83 10.24 6.38 4.87 - 2.45 - 3.96 138.37 181.38 7.78 6.13
Zimbabwe Shellfish 0.02 0.24 0.02 0.02 0.32 0.30 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06
Crustaceans 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Molluscs 0.01 0.19 0.01 0.01 0.24 0.23 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Shell molluscs 0.01 0.17 0.01 0.01 0.23 0.22 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Cephalopods 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps

Source: Authors’ estimation.


As opposed to most work that forecasts future fish demand and supply focusing on medium-
or long-term projections at the global or regional level, a short-term projection model is
developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to assess
and monitor potential future fish demand-supply gaps at the national (nearly 200 countries
or territories), regional (about 40 country groups) and global levels for nine species groups.
Results generated by the short-term projection model can be used by governments to
facilitate the establishment of evidence-based regulations, policies and development
strategies and plans, by development agencies or donors to set targets and allocate
resources, and by fish farmers or investors in business or investment planning.

ISBN 978-92-5-109857-8 ISSN 2070-7010

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I7623EN/1/07.17

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