Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems 29 (2015) 469–477 469

DOI:10.3233/IFS-141178
IOS Press

Study on BIM-based construction project

cost and schedule risk early warning
Chengshuang Sun, Qingpeng Man∗ and Yaowu Wang
School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China

Abstract. Due to the more complex structure, greater size, and longer constructing period, most construction projects are facing
more and greater risks than before and need more effective methods and tools to manage risks. However, because of the complex
mathematic formulas, the difficulty of collecting data, or low profit margin etc., professionals are finding that few risk management
methods and tools are sufficient, and they typically rely on their experience in practical construction-project risk management. To
solve these problems, we present Building Information Modeling (BIM) as a new technology and the future of the Architectural,
Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry. This combined with Earned Value Analysis (EVA) for providing a BIM-based
construction project cost and schedule risk early warning model (BIM-CPCSREWM) to better and effectively manage construction
project risks. Herein we will present a background and a description of the proposed model, develop the system prototype of
BIM-CPCSREWM, and utilize a practical medicine construction project to illustrate the model’s validity.

Keywords: Construction project, risk management, BIM, risk early warning, cost and schedule

1. Introduction over $312 million in real and severe financial losses

At present, most construction projects are facing
more and greater risks than before because their scale
is becoming larger, their structures more complex, con-
struction technology more difficult, and construction
periods longer, and they have more uncertain factors [1,
7]. If risks cannot be managed effectively, the risks will
become actual problems, bringing construction-project
participants more financial and possibly life losses,
or lead to construction project failures. For example,
with construction 40.7% completed, a paper mill con-
struction project in Chandler, Quebec, Canada, was
abandoned due to socio-logics and ideo-logics overrid-
ing economic rationality or eco-logics. This resulted in
∗ Corresponding author. Qingpeng Man, School of Management,
Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150001, China. Tel.: +86 451
86402181; Fax: +86 451 86402181; E-mail: manqp@126.com.
as well as in social consequences [33]. For another
example, because they used unskilled workers to erect
scaffolding for a high-rise construction in Jalan Bukit
Bintang, Malaysia, two workers died and ten were
injured when the scaffolding collapsed [35].
Admittedly, as Latham [25] suggests, all projects
have risks: “No construction project is risk free. Risk
can be managed, minimized, shared, transferred or
accept. It cannot be ignored.” Therefore, it is very
important that the risks be managed effectively. Many
scholars have deeply studied the theories and the meth-
ods of construction-project risk management. Taroun
[31], for example, conducted a literature review of con-
struction risk modeling and assessment, and pointed
out that many substantial efforts are being put for-
ward to improve the Probability-Impact risk model,
reflecting construction projects’ increasing complexity.
Also, Kang et al. [24] developed a 5D CAD system for

1064-1246/15/$35.00 © 2015 – IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved
470 C. Sun et al. / Study on BIM-based construction project cost and schedule risk early warning

visualizing a construction risk degree of each activity

by linking 4D object data with the risk data, in which
they analyzed the possibilities of delay, greater-than-
expected spending, and accidents due to operational
risks. Jia et al. [22] presented a prototype of Risk
Management Maturity System (RMMS) in large-scale
construction projects by using the Analytic Network
Process method for assessing the overall effectiveness
of risk management against major risk factors. Many
scholars have studied risk early warning as an impor-
tant part of risk management. For example, Ding and
Zhou [8] developed a web-based system for risk early
warning of urban metro construction to imitate human
experts giving safety-risk assessment and early warn-
ings automatically based on multisource information, Fig. 1. Flow of the overall research framework.
and this system has been successfully applied to many
metro construction projects in the cities of Wuhan,
Shenyang, Zhengzhou, and Kunming in China. Chen facilitate risk modeling and management on the recon-
et al. [6] presented an outlier-detection model based on struction at the World Trade Center (WTC) site.
the Knowledge Discovery in Database (KDD) method Hartmann et al. [15] provided a case in which BIM was
for tender evaluation-decision and risk early warning, used to support risk management activities on a large
and they illustrated the model through a questionnaire scale, a D 620 million infrastructure project within a
survey to effectively detect the latent risks. Although European metropolitan area.
these methods and risk-management-assessment tools This paper presents a construction project cost
are effective, few of them are applied in practical and schedule risk early warning model (BIM-
construction projects due to the complexity of the CPCSREWM) based on BIM technology, in which
mathematic formulas, the difficulty of collecting data, we also adopt Earned Value Analysis (EVA) to bet-
or the low profit margin etc. [18, 30], and because ter provide overall risk information. For illustrating the
professionals typically rely on their own experience validity of BIM-CPCSREWM, we have developed a
[31]. However, professionals regard risk-management system prototype and applied it in a practical, medicine-
computer systems as an effective way to solve the related construction project.
above-mentioned barriers [24].
Building Information Modeling (BIM) technology is
changing the construction industry and is the future of 2. Research methodology
the AEC industry [17]. The General Services Admin-
istration (2007) says this about BIM: 2.1. Overall research framework
“BIM is the development and use of a multi-
The methodology employed in designing an inte-
faceted computer-software data model that not only
grated BIM-CPCSREWM is based on EVA as a
documents a building design, but simulates the con-
quantitative tool for data analysis and BIM for data
struction and operation of a new capital facility or
provider and results visually demonstrating. Figure 1
a recapitalized (modernized) facility. The resulting
shows the flow of the overall research framework, which
model is a data-rich, object-based, intelligent, and
consists of the following steps.
parametric digital representation of the facility from
Step 1. Collect planned and actual data. According to
which views appropriate to various users’ needs can
EVA’s calculation requirements, the planned data are
be extracted and analyzed to generate feedback on
retrieved from BIM model, and the actual data are pro-
and improvement of the facility design.”
vided by the construction site’s engineer.
BIM model (the resulting model) can be used Step 2. Calculate the parameters of EVA. After
as a data provider and a collaboration platform for receiving the planned and actual data concerning the
construction-project risk management. Harvey et al. construction project, we will calculate the parameters
[16] discussed BIM’s use and implementation to of EVA, such as Planned Value (PV), Earned Value
 C. Sun et al. / Study on BIM-based construction project cost and schedule risk early warning
Table 1
Parameters and formulas of earned value analysis and its interpretation
Name Formula
Cost Variance (CV) EV-AC
Schedule Variance (SV) EV-PV
Cost Performance Index (CPI) EV/AC
Schedule Performance Index (SPI) EV/PV
Estimate At Completion (EAC) BAC/CPI AC + ETC
Estimate to Complete (ETC) EAC-AC
Variance at Completion (VAC) BAC-EAC
(EV), Actual Cost (AC), and Budget at Completion
(BAC), etc.
Step 3. Analyze the risk status of the construction
project’s cost and schedule according to the EVA
parameters, and visually demonstrate the risk early
warning information in BIM model.
2.2. Earned value analysis
EVA is a project management technique for measur-
ing project performance and progress that uses “work
in progress” to indicate what will happen to work in
the future. It is an “early warning” program/project
management tool that enables managers to identify and
control problems before they become insurmountable
[27]. EVA can simultaneously manage both the sched-
ule and the cost of a project.
To measure project performance from both schedule
and cost points of view, we have introduced the sched-
ule performance index (SPI) and the cost performance
index (CPI) as earned value metrics. SPI and CPI are
calculated by dividing EV by PV and AC, respectively.
Table 1 shows the summary of important parameters
and formulas of Earned Value Analysis [4, 27].
2.3. Building information modeling
Eastman et al. [9] described the earliest concept of
BIM as a working prototype “Building Description
System,” and it dates back nearly forty years. Since
then, researchers have found that BIM can solve many
problems in the construction industry, such as inter-
operability [14], conflict analysis [37], construction
sustainability [2], and prefabrication [20], etc. As a
471
Interpretation
Negative is over budget, positive is under budget.
Negative is behind schedule, positive is ahead of schedule.
CPI of 1.0 means that the actual cost equals to the planned cost;
CPI greater than 1.0 means the cost of completing work is less
than what is planned; CPI less than 1.0 means construction
project is facing cost overrun.
SPI of 1.0 means that the schedule of completing the work is right
on plan; SPI greater than 1.0 means work is accomplished ahead
of schedule; SPI less than 1.0 means work is accomplished
behind schedule.
A forecast of most likely total construction project costs, based on
current construction performance and risk quantification.
The estimated additional cost to complete the construction project
at any given time.
Money over or under budget at the end of the construction project.
result, they have paid more and more attention to BIM.
At present, many BIM tools have been developed, such
as Autodesk Revit and Navisworks, Graphisoft Archi-
CAD, Bentley MicroStation, etc., and they have been
used in many different kinds of construction projects.
Many benefits can be obtained by applying BIM
in practical. Case studies of construction projects that
use BIM indicate that there are 8 to 15% savings on
new projects and up to 35% savings on repeat projects
[21]. The design team at the General Motors Production
Plant in Flint, Michigan estimated that the use of BIM
technology, specifically automated collision detection,
saved 3 to 5% in overall costs, and the 3D digital work-
flow contributed an additional 2 to 4% in cost and time
savings [9]. Too much special emphasis has been placed
on the research and application of BIM. For example,
Wisconsin Department of Administration [34] was the
first governmental organization to issue a “BIM Imple-
mentation Announcement” requiring all construction
(new and addition/alteration) with total project fund-
ing of $5M or greater to apply BIM technology, as of
July 1, 2009. The National Building Information Model
Standard Project Committee–United States [28] was
originally chartered in 2005 as a Facility Information
Council (FIC). They then released the National Build-
ing Information Modeling Standard Version 1 – Part
1: Overview, Principles, and Methodologies in 2007.
Other countries, like Japan, Singapore, Finland, China
etc., also pay close attention to BIM technology, and
have released BIM standards to improve the BIM appli-
cation in the construction industry [11].
Although BIM can bring great benefits to project
participants, there are many barriers limiting BIM
application, and BIM adoption is much slower than
472 C. Sun et al. / Study on BIM-based construction project cost and schedule risk early warning

A summary of previous studies related to construction project cost and schedule risks
No Author(s)
1 Tummala & Burchett
2 Baloi & Price
3 Kaliba et al.
4 Luu et al.
5 Chan et al.
6 Issa
Table 2
Year Risk factors
1999 Cost risk factors: financial, economic, political, environmental, design, site construction,
physical, and acts of God.
2003 Cost risk factors: estimator related, design related, level of competition related, fraudulent
practices related, construction related, economic related, and political related.
2009 Cost risk factors: bad weather, inflation, schedule delay, scope changes, local government
pressures, strikes, technical challenges, environmental protection and mitigation cost.
Schedule risk factors: changes in drawings, changes in specifications, material procurement,
construction mistakes, poor supervision, equipment unavailability, financial process,
financial difficulties, delayed payments, economic problems, labor disputes and strikes,
contract modification, staffing problems, and poor coordination on site.
2009 Schedule risk factors: owners’ financial difficulties, inadequate contractors’ experience,
materials shortages, contractors’ financial difficulties, slow site handover, delays in owners’
progress payments, low-awarded bid prices, inappropriate construction methods, defective
works and reworks, material price fluctuations, lack of capable and responsible site
supervisors, inclement weather, owners’ site clearance difficulties, lack of capable
owners/project managers, designers’ inadequate experience and capability, and equipment
shortages.
2011 Cost risk factors: change in scope of work, insufficient design completion during tender
invitation, unforeseeable design development risks at tender stage, errors and omissions in
tender document, exchange rate variations, unforeseeable ground conditions, actual
quantities of work required far exceeding estimates, lack of experience of contracting
parties, inflation beyond expectations, and unrealistic maximum price or target cost agreed
in the contract, etc.
2013 Schedule risk factors: contractor problems and inadequate experience, change in material
prices or price escalation, unskilled workers and poor labor productivity, inefficient use of
equipment, delay in running bill payments to the contractor, delay in material procurement,
design/ suitability errors, clients’ problems, inadequate and slow decision-making
mechanisms, poor quality of local materials, poor coordination among parties, rework due
to errors in execution, improper accommodations for workers.

anticipated [10]. Gledson et al. [13] pointed out cul-
tural, legal, and commercial implications. And the lack
of e-readiness within an organization appears to be the
most prominent barrier to BIM implementation. Many
problems existing in the process of applying BIM in
practical construction projects need to be studied. In
this paper, we employ BIM as a real-time data provider
to study construction-project risk early warning
management.
3. Analysis of risk factors affecting
construction project cost and schedule
Risk management can be divided into six parts: risk
management planning, risk identification, qualitative
risk analysis, quantitative risk analysis, risk response
planning, and risk monitoring [29]. Risk identifica-
tion is one important part that greatly influences other
parts. Many researchers have conducted previous stud-
ies for risk identification, and have thereby identified
many construction project risk factors. Zavadskas et al.
[36] divided construction project risk into three groups:
external risks (political, economic, social, and weather),
project risks (time, cost work quality, construction, and
technological), and internal risks (resources, project
members, construction site, documents, and informa-
tion). Construction project costs and schedules are two
vital targets, and we have presented many risk factors
affecting them in Table 2.
IT can be seen in Table 2 that there are still many
risk factors that influence construction projects’ costs
and schedules, although in previous decades, many
project-delivery methods and many risk-evasion strate-
gies were put forward. So studies need more innovative
risk-management methods. In practical construction
projects, analyzing all the related risk factors and
assessing their impacts on construction projects’ costs
and schedules is difficult and complex. Considering the
characteristics of onerous risk types, EVA is a suitable
tool for risk early warning because it mainly compares
actual data with plan data and doesn’t concern itself
with which risk factors cause cost overrun or schedule
delays. Accordingly, we present BIM technology, as a
 C. Sun et al. / Study on BIM-based construction project cost and schedule risk early warning
Fig. 2. Diagram of BIM-CPCSREWM framework.
construction project data provider, combined with EVA
for risk early warning, and BIM-CPCSREWM.
4. Establishment of BIM-CPCSREWM
4.1. Framework of BIM-CPCSREWM
BIM-CPCSREWM includes three parts: input, data
process, and output. Figure 2 presents the framework
of BIM-CPCSREWM.
Part 1: Input. There are four kinds of data: cost
and schedule data of practical construction projects;
new labor costs, building materials, and construction
machineries; construction project schedule plans; and
the BIM model. The first two kinds need to be imported
into BIM-CPCSREWM and updated frequently. For
example, these kinds of data should be updated when
one key construction procedure is completed, or when
the price of construction materials greatly rises. The
last two kinds generally need to be imported into BIM-
CPCSREWM once, except design changes. The BIM
model not only is used as the data provider for Bills
of Quantities (BOQ), but also can be used as a visual
demonstration of risk early warning information for
construction projects.
Part 2: Data process. In this part, BOQ are retrieved
from the BIM model, as well as are other data, such
as cost, schedule plan, practical construction site data,
etc. We then combine and summarize the calculation
of parameters of EVA. Then, we can retrieve the risk
information (if the construction project costs have been
overrun and if the schedule has been delayed, etc.)
according to the CPI and SPI values.
Part 3: Output. BIM-CPCSREWM can give two out-
puts. One is detailed information about the construction
project’s cost and schedule risk early warning; another
473
is the risks’ visual demonstration by using the BIM
model.
4.2. System flow chart of BIM-CPCSREWM
A system flow chart is a graphical representation of
system data flow and represents the system’s work pro-
cess. Figure 3 shows the BIM-CPCSREWM system
flow chart, which presents the main procedure steps
for risk early warning of the construction project.
4.3. Preconditions of model application
Application of BIM-CPCSREWM should meet the
following preconditions.
(1) Detailed level of BIM model should satisfy the
requirement of EVA calculation.
BIM-CPCSREWM has no function of establish-
ing the BIM model, so the BIM model should have
been developed first by other BIM tools and then
imported into BIM-CPCSREWM. Because the major-
ity of data needed for calculating the parameters of EVA
come from the BIM model, the BIM model should
be as detailed as possible. Besides, the bill of quan-
tity (BOQ) should be automatically calculated by BIM
tools because BOQ is a base for BIM-CPCSREWM.
Once the design change occurs, the new BOQ can
immediately and easily be calculated and imported
into BIM-CPCSREWM for comparing with previous
design schemes and for guaranteeing the real-time early
warning.
(2) Data interface should adopt the IFC format.
The IFC data exchange standard now is the most
widely applied in BIM tools. Almost all the pop-
ular BIM tools are compatible with IFC, such as
Autodesk Revit, Bentley MicroStation, and Graphisoft
474 C. Sun et al. / Study on BIM-based construction project cost and schedule risk early warning

Fig. 3. system flow chart of BIM-CPCSRWM.

 C. Sun et al. / Study on BIM-based construction project cost and schedule risk early warning
Manu of BIM-CPCSRWM
View tools of BIM model
Schedule and cost data which are inputted and
connected to the related parts of the BIM model.
Fig. 4. Schedule and cost data input interface in BIM-CPCSREWM.
Fig. 5. Interface of calculating parameters of EVA in BIM-
CPCSREWM.
ArchiCAD, etc. For interoperating with existing BIM
tools, IFC is adopted in BIM-CPCSREWM.
5. Prototype of BIM-CPCSREWM
The programming language for developing a pro-
totype of BIM-CPCSREWM is C#, which is a
multi-paradigm, general-purpose, and object-oriented
programming language. The database is Microsoft
SQL Server 2008. The prototype of BIM-CPCSREWM
adopts the Autodesk.Navisworks.Api.dll for interface
with the Navisworks model.
475
Under construction
BIM model of practical
construction project
Information of delayed construction processes
Fig. 6. Demonstration of delayed construction processes.
Searching condition input
Risk related information about risk factor
name, risk factor classification, risk
response strategies, etc.
Fig. 7. Searching for risk response strategies.
The case for illustrating the validation of BIM-
CPCSREWM is a famous hospital construction project
in China, for which the overall planned investment was
3.35 billion RMB Yuan (550 million dollars), in which
the cost of civil works construction was 1.45 billion
RMB Yuan (238 million dollars) and the amount of
floor space under construction was 62 million square
meters. There are three floors underground and 22 floors
above ground. Figure 4 shows the master drawing. For
implementing the Flow Process Method, the construc-
tion site from the 3rd floor to the 5th floor was divided
into five construction sections, and from the 6th floor
to the 22nd floor, the construction site was divided into
two construction sections.
Firstly, the BIM model of this hospital construction
project was created by Revit 2014 and saved as a Nav-
isworks file and then inputted into BIM-CPCSREWM.
Then, from the construction organization plan files, we
476 C. Sun et al. / Study on BIM-based construction project cost and schedule risk early warning
entered the planned schedule and cost data, includ-
ing the planned start date, planned end date, planned
bill of quantity, and planned cost of each construc-
tion procedure. After the construction project started on
November 7, 2012, the actual schedule and cost infor-
mation were entered, such as the actual start date, actual
end date, actual bill of quantity, actual cost of each
construction procedures. The interface of inputting the
planned and the actual construction project’s schedule
and cost data can be seen in Fig. 4. After the planned and
actual data of the construction project were acquired,
the parameters of EVA could be calculated.
For this hospital construction project, we only cal-
culated the parameters of EVA twice, once on July 24,
2013, and then on October 24, 2013, as shown in Fig. 5.
According to the first calculation results, CPI>1 and
SPI>1 means cost under budget and ahead of schedule.
But the second calculation results, CPI>1 and SPI<1
means cost under budget and behind schedule. All the
calculation results can be visually shown in an Excel-
format graph. If the number from the calculation is
enough, the trends of EV, AV, and PV will be much
more obvious and significant to a risk analyzer.
Figure 6 shows the detail information about
the delayed construction processes, and dynamically
presents construction conditions.
After knowing the information about the construc-
tion project delay or cost overrun, the participants can
search for the related risk-response strategies in BIM-
CPCSREWM, as shown in Fig. 7.
6. Conclusions
The cost and schedule are two very important main
targets for construction projects, and the risk manage-
ment is the guarantee for implementing these targets.
This paper has presented a new risk early warning
method based on newly emerging BIM technology.
(1) Although many scholars have studied risk
management and have presented some methods for
evaluating and mitigating construction-project risks,
most methods aren’t easily applied in practice due
to their complication and difficulty in collecting data.
So more effective and easy-to-use methods of apply-
ing advanced and new technology like BIM are worth
studying.
(2) BIM has great advantages for construction-
project risk management. Due to BIM’s powerful
capability, such as its data-rich, parametric digital rep-
resentation, and 4D simulation, etc., BIM can provide
basic data of construction projects’ costs and schedules
for risk early warning, and dynamically demonstrate
construction sites’ risk results.
Because both the BIM and the risk early warning of
construction projects are very complicated, there are
many key problems that need to be studied. This paper
has initially explored the framework of applying BIM
on the risk early warning and its feasibility, and the
follow-up study will focus on the further development
of the BIM-based construction project risk early warn-
ing system and its application in practice. Among these
key problems, auto-generation of schedule plans and
automatic exact pricing of each constructing process
of a construction project from the BIM model are the
most important things that need to be studied, and
urgently so.
Acknowledgments
The research was supported by the National Nat-
ural Science Foundation of China under the grants
No.71071043, No. 71201038 and No. 51378160, and
the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned
Overseas Chinese Scholars of Harbin Science and
Technology Bureau of China under the grants No.
JJ20120070.
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