Fig. 5.

COVID-19 spread in India with lock-down in multiple phases

IV. CONCLUSIONS

We have investigated the problem of Covid19 spread in India in practical scenarios. A

mathematical model has been established, which follows the actual data trend of Covid19 spread
in India. It has been proved from analytical (based on mathematical modelling) and simulation
results that lock-down and social distancing plays an important role to prevent from this disease.
The effect of lock-down has been discussed with different recovery rates and different infection
rates. It has been also concluded that sudden increase in hidden nodes (infected people) may rise
to a serious situation in terms of total cases, which may lead to burden on the medical set-ups. The
effect of lock-down in multiple phases has also been studied and it is shown by the simulation
results that lock-down in multiple phases is not a good strategy to deal with Covid19.

IV. REFERENCES
[1] https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019 [Accessed on March 30,
2020].
[2] I. S. Gradshteyn and I. M. Ryzhik, Table of Integrals, Series, and Products, 6th ed. San
Francisco, CA, USA: Academic, 2000.
[3] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries [Accessed on March 30, 2020].
[4] -
ARXIV. Online available at: http://web.iitd.ac.in/~manav/COVID.pdf [Accessed on April 01,
2020].