CHAPTER 3

DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES

& PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
STA116 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

Part 3

Session 2 2019/2020
#hapuscovid19
#covidiots
#stayhome

adiHAKIMtalib
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
• A discrete probability distribution that is useful when n is large and p is small and
when the independent variables occur over a period of time is called the Poisson
distribution
• The Poisson distribution can also be used when a density of items is distributed
over a given area or volume
For example:
- The number of plants growing per acre
- The number of defects in a given length of videotape
- The number of misprints on a page of book
- The number of customers entering a post office in a given day
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
• Poisson probability distribution is given by
𝒆−𝝀 𝝀𝒙
𝑷 𝑿; 𝝀 = 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒙 = 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, . . . .
𝒙!
Where;
λ = Greek letter, lambda is a mean number of occurrences per unit (time, volume, area, etc.)
e = a constant approximately equal to 2.7183
round the answer to 4 decimal places
• The mean, μ of a variable that has binomial distribution can be found by using
the following formula
μ=λ
• Variance, 𝛔2 is
𝛔2 = λ
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
• Example 1:
If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page manuscript,
find the probability that a given page contains
a. exactly 3 errors.
In this case; x = 3 and λ = 200/500 = 0.4, hence
X ~ Po (0.4)
2.7183−0.4 0.43
P(X = 3) =
3!
P(X = 3) = 0.0072
Thus, there is less than a 1% chance that any given page will contains exactly 3
errors
COMPUTING PROBABILITY BY USING TABLE
• Computing probability by using the Poisson formula can be quite tedious at times, so
tables have been developed for selected values of λ = m.
• Table 2 gives the Cumulative Poisson Probabilities
Consider
X ~ Po (0.5), using Cumulative Poisson
Probabilities table, find:
• P(X ≥ 2) = 0.0902
• P(X > 2) = P(X ≥ 3) = 0.0144
• P(X ≤ 2) = P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 3)
• P(X ≤ 2) = 1 – 0.0144
• P(X ≤ 2) = 0.9856
• P(X < 2) = P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 2)
• P(X < 2) = 1 – 0.0902
• P(X < 2) = 0.9098
EXAMPLE
• Example 2:
The number of accidents occurring in a factory in a week follows Poisson distribution
with mean 2.8. Find the probability
a. No accident occur in 1 week
In this case; x = 0 and λ = 2.8, hence
X ~ Po (2.8)
2.7183−2.8 2.80
P(X = 0) =
0!
P(X = 0) = 0.0608
Thus, there is 6.08% chance that no accident occur in 1 week
b. More than 3 accidents in 1 week
In this case; refer table for x = 4 and λ = 2.8, hence
P(X > 3) = P(X ≥ 4) = 0.3081
Thus, there is 30.81% chance that there will be more than 3 accidents occur in 1week
EXAMPLE
• Example 2 (cont.):
c. Less than 3 accidents in 1 week
= P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 3)
= 1 – 0.5305
= 0.4695
Thus, there is 46.95% chance that there will be less than 3 accidents occur in 1
week
d. More than 3 accidents in 2 weeks
In this case; refer table for x = 4 and λ = 2.8(2) = 5.6, hence
X ~ Po (5.6)
P(X > 3) = P(X ≥ 4) = 0.8094
Thus, there is 80.94% chance that there will be more than 3 accidents occur in 2
weeks
EXAMPLE
• Example 3:
Suppose the average number of lions seen on a 1-day safari is 5. What is the
probability that tourist will see fewer than four lions on the nest 1-day safari?
In this case; x = 0 , 1, 2 and 3 with λ = 5, hence
X ~ Po (5)
P(X < 4) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)
or by referring Table 2 for Cumulative Poisson Probabilities
P(X < 4) = P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 4)
P(X < 4) = 1 – 0.7350
P(X < 4) = 0.2650
POISSON APPROXIMATION
• The Poisson distribution can be used to approximate the Binomial distribution
• If X ~ Bin (n, p) with n > 30 and p < 0.10, then X can be approximate by a Poisson
distribution with mean, λ = np and therefore, X ~ Po (np) for X = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . .
• Mean, μ = λ = np and variance, 𝛔2 = λ = np

• Example 4:
If approximately 2% of the people in a room of 200 people are left-handed, find
the probability that exactly 5 people there are left-handed.
since n = 200 > 30 and p = 0.02 < 0.10, this Binomial distribution can be approximate by using
Poisson distribution, hence
X ~ Po (4)
P(X = 5) = (2.7183)-4(4)5 / 5!
P(X = 5) = 0.1563