Exercise 5: Mode Choice

The model: The different situations to model

Constants Trip no Traveltime

Car Car 0.42 car
Bus Bus 1 22
2 15
Modes 3 6
Traveltime Car / Bus -0.0125 4 6
Travelcost Car / Bus -0.0383 5 30
6 12
Socioeconomic factors
Income above avg Car 1.1025
Sex (woman=1) Bus 0.4832

Trip
CBD as destination Car -1.6489

Model calculations: Number Utiliy Utility P(car) P(bus)

of trips car bus
Present 1 200 -0.9759 -0.7915 45.4 % 54.6 %
situation 2 300 -0.6969 0.0167 32.9 % 67.1 %
3 500 -0.3929 -0.379 49.7 % 50.3 %
4 500 -0.3929 0.1042 37.8 % 62.2 %
5 100 0.3432 -0.3958 67.7 % 32.3 %
6 400 1.0661 -0.4415 81.9 % 18.1 %
2,000

Number Utiliy Utility P(car) P(bus)

of trips car bus
Fare 1 200 -0.9759 -0.8681 47.3 % 52.7 %
increase 2 300 -0.6969 -0.0599 34.6 % 65.4 %
3 500 -0.3929 -0.4556 51.6 % 48.4 %
4 500 -0.3929 0.0276 39.6 % 60.4 %
5 100 0.3432 -0.4724 69.3 % 30.7 %
6 400 1.0661 -0.5181 83.0 % 17.0 %
2,000

Average elasticity: -0.086

Average cross elasticity: 0.082 Fare increase
 Old busfare : 5
New busfare 7

ent situations to model

Traveltime Travelcost Income Sex Destination

bus car bus above avg woman=1 CBD=1
48 15 5 1 0 1
22 10 5 1 1 1
15 5 5 1 0 1
15 5 5 1 1 1
55 21 5 1 1 0
20 8 5 1 0 0

Car trips Bus trips Price Cross

elasticity elasticity
91 109 -0.09 0.087
99 201 -0.06 0.063
248 252 -0.10 0.095
189 311 -0.07 0.072
68 32 -0.13 0.130
327 73 -0.16 0.157
1,022 978 Bus revenue: 4,890

Car trips Bus trips Change

car bus
95 105 4 (4)
104 196 5 (5)
258 242 10 (10)
198 302 9 (9)
69 31 2 (2)
332 68 4 (4)
1,056 944 34 (34) Bus revenue: 6,610

Fare increase 2 Revenue increase: 1,720

40.0 % 35.2 %