FORECASTING

2017

Actual Sales of Collections

SN 2016 Percentage Target Sales for 2017
1 13,763.50 60% 8,258.10
2 11,844.15 60% 7,106.49
3 15,050.82 60% 9,030.49
4 11,173.19 60% 6,703.91
5 10,073.65 60% 6,044.19
6 8,500.22 60% 5,100.13
7 8,885.72 60% 5,331.43
8 9,821.17 60% 5,892.70
9 11,405.87 60% 6,843.52
10 6,708.66 60% 4,025.20
11 28,047.20 60% 16,828.32
12 26,704.10 60% 16,022.46

Linear Regression
Time Independent Dependent Estimation Square
Estimate
Period Variable Variable Error of Error
Jan 2017 8,258.10 7,418.14 7,885 467.05 218,139
Feb 2017 7,106.49 8,575.03 8,443 132.06 17,439
Mar 2017 9,030.49 14,922.91 7,511 7411.82 54,935,089
Apr 2017 6,703.91 8,291.72 8,638 346.24 119,881
May 2017 6,044.19 6,650.42 8,957 2307.07 5,322,583
Jun 2017 5,100.13 7,358.67 9,415 2056.07 4,227,437
Jul 2017 5,331.43 7,644.85 9,303 1657.86 2,748,513
Aug 2017 5,892.70 8,798.03 9,031 232.84 54,212
Sep 2017 6,843.52 5,297.71 8,570 3272.63 10,710,102
Oct 2017 4,025.20 8,537.63 9,935 1397.75 1,953,716
Nov 2017 16,828.32 3,881.50 3,734 147.26 21,685
Dec 2017 16,022.46 6,425.57 4,125 2301.01 5,294,658
 Linear Regression Line Range Name Cells
y = a + bx a J5
a= 11,884.97 b J6
b= -0.48 Dependent Variable D5:D34
Estimate E5:E34
Estimation Error F5:F34
Estimator Independent Variable C5:C34
If x = 20,000 Square Of Error G5:G34
x J10
then y= 2,198.05 y J12

16,000.00

14,000.00

12,000.00
Dependent Variable

10,000.00

8,000.00

6,000.00 y = -0.2031x + 9461.9

4,000.00

2,000.00

0.00
- 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00 14,000.00 16,000.00 18,000.00
Independent Variable

Figure 1: Forecast Sales versus Actual Sales for 2017

 FORECASTING
2018

Actual Sales of Collections

SN 2017 Percentage Target Sales for 2018
1 7,418.14 60% 4,450.88
2 8,575.03 60% 5,145.02
3 14,922.91 60% 8,953.75
4 8,291.72 60% 4,975.03
5 6,650.42 60% 3,990.25
6 7,358.67 60% 4,415.20
7 7,644.85 60% 4,586.91
8 8,798.03 60% 5,278.82
9 5,297.71 60% 3,178.63
10 8,537.63 60% 5,122.58
11 3,881.50 60% 2,328.90
12 6,425.57 60% 3,855.34

Template for Linear Regression

Time Independent Dependent Estimation Square
Period Variable Variable Estimate Error of Error

1 4,450.88 13,005.55 9,729 3276.35 10,734,445

2 5,145.02 6,072.44 9,393 3320.56 11,026,137

3 8,953.75 16,438.21 7,548 8889.95 79,031,199

4 4,975.03 13,092.93 9,475 3617.60 13,086,995

5 3,990.25 10,967.18 9,952 1014.87 1,029,963

6 4,415.20 14,778.09 9,746 5031.60 25,317,037

7 4,586.91 11,901.81 9,663 2238.49 5,010,837

8 5,278.82 24,322.40 9,328 14994.20 224,826,116

9 3,178.63 18,190.32 10,345 7844.90 61,542,506

10 5,122.58 13,336.73 9,404 3932.86 15,467,376

11 2,328.90 12,328.15 10,757 1571.17 2,468,581

12 3,855.34 4,879.01 10,018 5138.64 26,405,643

 Linear Regression
Line Range Name Cells
y = a + bx a J5
a = 3,775.58 b J6
b= 0.07 Dependent Variable D5:D34
Estimate E5:E34
Estimation Error F5:F34
Independent
Estimator Variable C5:C34
If x = 10,000 Square Of Error G5:G34
X J10
then y= 4,464.44 Y J12

16,000.00

14,000.00

12,000.00
Dependent Variable

10,000.00
y = 0.1275x + 6247.4
8,000.00

6,000.00

4,000.00

2,000.00

0.00
- 5,000.00 10,000.00 15,000.00 20,000.00 25,000.00 30,000.00
Independent Variable

Figure 2: Forecast Sales versus Actual Sales for 2018

 FORECASTING
2019

Actual Sales of Collections

SN 2017 Percentage Target Sales for 2018
13,005.55 60% 7,803.33
1
6,072.44 60% 3,643.46
2
16,438.21 60% 9,862.93
3
13,092.93 60% 7,855.76
4
10,967.18 60% 6,580.31
5
14,778.09 60% 8,866.85
6
11,901.81 60% 7,141.09
7
24,322.40 60% 14,593.44
8
18,190.32 60% 10,914.19
9
13,336.73 60% 8,002.04
10
12,328.15 60% 7,396.89
11
4,879.01 60% 2,927.41
12

Template for Linear Regression

Time Independent Dependent Estimation Square
Estimate
Period Variable Variable Error of Error
1 7,803.33 5,498.43 8,105 2607.03 6,796,606
2 3,643.46 3,896.99 10,120 6223.28 38,729,268
3 9,862.93 2,985.09 7,108 4122.81 16,997,587
4 7,855.76 2,651.70 8,080 5428.37 29,467,166
5 6,580.31 1,235.30 8,698 7462.53 55,689,292
6 8,866.85 7,687.86 7,590 97.51 9,509
7 7,141.09 3,109.61 8,426 5316.61 28,266,292
8 14,593.44 3,800.94 4,817 1015.76 1,031,764
9 10,914.19 10,178.37 6,599 3579.64 12,813,847
10 8,002.04 7,567.94 8,009 441.28 194,725
11 7,396.89 6,584.49 8,302 1717.83 2,950,932
12 2,927.41 6,633.71 10,467 3833.38 14,694,834
 Linear Regression Line Range Name Cells
y = a + bx a J5
a= 7,380.67 b J6
Dependent
b= 0.11 Variable D5:D34
Estimate E5:E34
Estimation Error F5:F34
Independent
Estimator Variable C5:C34
If x = 20,000 Square Of Error G5:G34
x J10
then y= 9,651.29 y J12

16,000.00

14,000.00

12,000.00
Dependent Variable

10,000.00

8,000.00

6,000.00
y = -0.447x + 10120
4,000.00

2,000.00

0.00
- 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00
Independent Variable

Figure 3: Forecast Sales versus Actual Sales for 2019

 2017-2019 Comparison

Row Labels Sum of Target Sales Sum of Actual Sales

2017 97,187.00 93,802.18

2018 56,281.31 159,312.82
2019 95,588.00 61,830.43
Grand Total 249,056.31 314,945.43

180,000.00

160,000.00

140,000.00

120,000.00

100,000.00
Sum of Target Sales

80,000.00 Sum of Actual Sales

60,000.00

40,000.00

20,000.00

-
2017 2018 2019

Figure 4: 2017-2019 Comparison (Target Sales vs Actual Sales)

Interpretation:

The y-axis is the amount of sales (the dependent variable) the thing you’re
interested in, is always on the y-axis) and the x-axis is the total target per
year as you can see in the graph year 2017, the target sales is quite
decreasing(see independent variable). Each blue dot represents one
month’s data—how much it rise or fall the sales per month and how many
sales you made that same month.
Glancing the data, you probably notice that sales are decreasing on the month of
November 2017. That’s interesting to know, but by how much? Know how much you’ll
sell?

Now imagine drawing a line through the chart above in the year 2017 one that runs
roughly through the middle of all the data points. This line will help you to see with some
data in the year 2017.

The above example uses only one variable to predict the factor of interest — in this case
rain to predict sales. Typically you start a regression analysis wanting to understand the
impact of several independent variables. So you might include that but also data about a
competitor’s promotion. ““You’re trying to get the line that fits best with your data.” While
there can be dangers to trying to include too many variables in a regression analysis,
skilled analysts can minimize those risks. And considering the impact of multiple variables
at once is one of the biggest advantages of regression.