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(2017) 000–000
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(2017)2773–2778
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9th International Conference on Applied Energy, ICAE2017, 21-24 August 2017, Cardiff, UK

Analyzing of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy consumption

The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling
via Bayesian Inference
Assessing the feasibility Reza Nadimi*, of using the heat demand-outdoor
Koji Tokimatsu
temperature
Department
Department of
function
of Transdisciplinary
Transdisciplinary Science
Science and
for a School
and Engineering,
long-term
Engineering, School of
of Environment
district
Environment and
and Society,
heat
Society, Tokyo
demand
Tokyo Institute
Institute of
of Technology,
forecast
Technology, 4259
4259 Nagatsuta-
Nagatsuta-
cho,
cho, Midori-ku,
Midori-ku, Yokohama,
Yokohama, 226-8503,
226-8503, Japan.
Japan.
I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc
Abstract
Abstract
a
IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
b
Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France
Excessive
Excessive use
c
of
of fossil
fossil fuels
use Département which
Systèmes
fuels consist
consist largely
whichÉnergétiques of
of carbon
carbon and
et Environnement
largely - IMT
and hydrogen, threatens
Atlantique,
hydrogen, the
4 rue Alfred
threatens global
global climate,
the Kastler, ecosystem,
44300 Nantes,
climate, France and
ecosystem, and public
public
health.
health. Substitution
Substitution of of renewable
renewable energy
energy intointo fossil
fossil fuel
fuel energy
energy will
will slow
slow the
the rate
rate of
of environmental
environmental degradation,
degradation, reduce
reduce air
air pollution,
pollution,
and
and greenhouse
greenhouse gas gas emission.
emission. ThisThis study
study uses
uses anan econometrics
econometrics approach
approach to to forecast
forecast the
the energy
energy consumption
consumption of of the
the Japan
Japan until
until
2030.
2030. Then, it applies a stochastic substitution model, to fit suitable renewable energy model. Essential part of the proposed model
Then, it applies a stochastic substitution model, to fit suitable renewable energy model. Essential part of the proposed model
Abstractthe recursive Bayesian filter and the Random Number generation to update the distribution of renewable energy model
relies
relies on
on the recursive Bayesian filter and the Random Number generation to update the distribution of renewable energy model
through
through substitution.
substitution. FourFour scenarios
scenarios are are defined
defined in in terms
terms of of the
the two
two parameters
parameters of of the
the posterior
posterior distribution
distribution (mean,
(mean, and
and standard
standard
District heatingresults
deviation). networkstheareproposed
commonly addressed in the literature as one the
of the most effective solutions for thedecreasing the
deviation). The
The results of of the proposed model model demonstrate
demonstrate error error reduction
reduction of of the proposed
proposed model
model compared
compared withwith the first-order
first-order
greenhouse gas emissions
exponential from the building sector. Thesegenerated
systems require high investments which are returned through the heat
exponential smoothing
smoothing model. model. Moreover,
Moreover, the the random
random datadata generated to to forecast
forecast the
the renewable
renewable energy
energy consumption
consumption demonstrate
demonstrate aa
sales. Due to the
constant changed2028 climate 2029.
conditions and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease,
constant growth
growth forfor the
the year
year 2028 and and 2029.
©prolonging the investment return period. Ltd.
© 2017
2017 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by by Elsevier
Elsevier Ltd.
©The
2017 Thescope
main
Peer-review Authors.
under Published
paper isby
ofresponsibility
this to Elsevier
of assess
the Ltd.
the
scientificfeasibility
committee of usingthethe heat demand – outdoor temperature function for heat demand
Peer-review
Peer-review under
under responsibility
responsibility of
of the scientific
thelocated
scientific committee of
committee of
of the
9th International
International Conference
9th International
the 9th Conference on Applied
on Applied Energy.
Applied Energy.
Energy.
forecast. The district of Alvalade, in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as aConference
case study.onThe district is consisted of 665
buildingsEnergy
Keywords: that vary
Keywords: Energy use in both construction
use forecasting,
forecasting, Random
Random Number
period and typology.
Number Generation,
Generation, Statistical
Three weatherModel;
Statistical Substitution
scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district
Substitution Model;
renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were
compared with results from a dynamic heat demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors.
1.The
1. results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications
Introduction
Introduction
(the error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation
scenarios, the error (RE)
Renewable value increasedhave up to 59.5% (dependingofon the weather and renovation scenarios protocol
combination considered).
Renewable EnergyEnergy (RE) sources sources have been been at at the
the centre
centre of concentration,
concentration, especially
especially after
after Kyoto
Kyoto protocol and and currently
currently
The value
Paris agreementof slope
agreement [1]. coefficient
[1]. InIn fact, increased
fact, three
three fundamental on average
fundamental aims within
aims of of thethe
the Parisrange
Paris dealof 3.8% up
deal indirectly to
indirectly focus8% per
focus on decade,
on global that corresponds
global mobilization
mobilization to the
to flow
flow
Paris
decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather to and
the
the RE
RE sources.
sources. Emphasizing
Emphasizing the
the the mitigation
mitigation of the
the greenhouse gas
gas emissions, declining the global
global average
renovation scenarios considered). On other hand,offunction greenhouse
intercept increased emissions,
for 7.8-12.7%declining the (depending
per decade average
on the
temperature,
temperature, and
and financial
financial supports
supports to
to implement
implement both previous aims, demonstrate the
the great importance of RE
RE sources.
coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be both used previous
to modifyaims, demonstrate
the function parameters great importance
for the scenariosofconsidered,
sources.and
On
On the
the other
other hand,
hand, fossil
fossil fuels
fuels give
give off
off carbon
carbon dioxide
dioxide and
and sulphur
sulphur dioxide
dioxide into
into the
the environment
environment which
which are
are resulted
resulted in
in
improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and
** Corresponding
Corresponding author.
Cooling. author. +81-45-924-5507;
+81-45-924-5507; fax:
fax: +81-45-330-6302.
+81-45-330-6302.
E-mail
E-mail address:
address: rn.nadimi@gmail.com
rn.nadimi@gmail.com
Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change
1876-6102 ©
1876-6102 © 2017
2017 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by
by Elsevier
Elsevier Ltd.
Ltd.
Peer-review
Peer-review under
under responsibility
responsibility of
of the
the scientific
scientific committee
committee of
of the
the 9th
9th International
International Conference
Conference on
on Applied
Applied Energy.
Energy.

1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.
1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th International Conference on Applied Energy.
10.1016/j.egypro.2017.12.224
2774 Reza Nadimi et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2773–2778
2 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

the global warming and the acid rain (Chapter one [2]). Therefore, energy production planning based on RE sources
will reduce the mentioned problems of fossil fuel-based energy production. Estimation of the energy demand provides
a good vision for energy production planning.

2. Literature review

According to the world energy statistics, the total primary energy supply in terms of both Renewable Energy (RE) and
Non-Renewable Energy (NRE) for the year 2014 are 14.1% and 85.9 %, respectively [3]. Yet, the proportion of NRE
resources consist oil (31.3%), coal family (28.6%), natural gas (21.2%) natural gas, and Nuclear (4.8%). The excessive
use of NRE resources, on the one hand, speeds up the depletion of associated resources. One the other hand, the NRE
resources have negative impact on the environment, and global greenhouse gas emissions.
Econometrics approaches [4], [5], [6] are a popular method for the load forecasting, which provides a suitable vision
for the energy use. Diffusion and substitution models are other forecasting approaches which focus on the growth rate
of the market and technology change to estimate the product demand [7], [8].
Substitution Models: Simple technological changing model was proposed by Fisher [9] in which technological
substitution was defined in terms of proportional of the new technology to the old one. This model then was
generalized by Sharif and Kabir [10] in which two concepts were added to the model. The delay coefficient and the
delay factor were two adjustable factors to moderate the forecasting model from optimistic to pessimistic state. A
statistical model was developed by Meade [11] to model technological substitution process. This model was utilized
from the latest known observation to update itself. Kalman filter technique was used to estimate the parameters of the
model.
Diffusion Models: Growth pattern of five RE technologies was investigated by Hun and Lee [12]. Price function and
a diffusion model were suggested in this study to reduce the uncertainty of RE technologies as well as improve the
accuracy of the load forecasting. The usage of RE technologies to generate electricity was modelled by Meade and
Islam [13]. The trajectory of the fossil fuel price for the future, export/import security for fossil fuels, and
environmental impact were conducted as stimuli for the development of RE technologies. According to their study,
the growth rate of these technologies was classified into four groups among fourteen European countries. Moreover,
they found that variation in the fossil fuel price did not explain variation in the RE technology usage. Several
innovation in RE technologies, energy efficiency, and incentive schemes were introduced by Kumar and Agarwala
[14] to increase the diffusion rate for the RE technologies in India. An integrated approach was proposed for the RE
technology diffusion, which contained technology components, conversion, availability of resources, cost, and policy.
Lack of investment in RE technologies was recognized as a great barrier to diffuse RE technologies.

3. Methodology

This research specifies a framework to analyse the growth rate of renewable energy in comparison with Non-
renewable energy consumption. To conduct the mentioned analysis, here, a statistical model is proposed to forecast
the future situation of the renewable energy consumption (As a result renewable energy technologies). This paper
applies the Bayesian inference (Chapter three [15]) to estimate the sequence of renewable energy growth rate for each
year. Moreover, random number is used to generate some data for each year and to adjust the posterior distribution in
the Bayesian inference.

3.1 Constructing Growth Rate Model via Bayesian Inference

This study addresses Multi-Input Single Output (MISO) market in which different sources of renewable energy as
well as Non-renewable energy are applied to generate electricity in the market. Moreover, depletion of fossil fuel
resources along with uncertainty in the current condition of renewable energy sources (wind, shortage of water, sun,
and climate change) bring about incomplete substitution in the renewable energy market. In the case of energy, the
total amount of demand energy is fulfilled by both renewable and non-renewable energy. The existence uncertainty
in the electricity generation by renewable energy changes the priority to the fossil fuel types. On the other hand,
depletion of fossil fuel sources and their impacts, especially on climate changes and greenhouse gas emissions, has
provided opportunity to utilize the capacity of renewable energy as much as possible (Maximum level of energy
 Reza Nadimi et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2773–2778 2775
Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 3

generation by renewable energy sources at time ith, Ɵi). Therefore, the ideal form of substitution model (Fig. 1) at the
MISO energy market has been transformed into the complementary model (Fig. 2).

Fig. 1: Ideal form of substitution model Fig. 2: Supplementary model of RE usage

According to the Fig. 3, current energy data are used to forecast the total energy consumption level by means of
econometrics method (Ŷt) (First-Order Exponential Smoothing Model (FOESM), chapter four of [16]).

𝑌𝑌̂0 = 𝑥𝑥0 ( 1)

𝑌𝑌̂𝑡𝑡 = 𝜌𝜌𝑥𝑥𝑡𝑡 + (1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑌𝑌̂𝑡𝑡−1 , 𝑡𝑡 > 0, 0 < 𝜌𝜌 < 1 ( 2)

To estimate the percentage of RE usage at time tn or the position of Ɵ ̂ n, the Bayesian inference as well as random
number generation [17] are applied. Indeed, this paper supposes the Beta distribution (Beta (α, β)) as a prior
distribution to the Ɵn, which its range changes from zero to 100 percent (Zero to one). Moreover, this article assumes
RE projects are divided into the medium term projects with the length of 5 years. This assumption is used to estimate
the shape, α, and scale, β, parameters of the Beta distribution, at starting point. In other words, the shape and scale
parameters are identified based on previous RE usage data as follows:

𝛼𝛼 ∑𝑛𝑛−1
𝑖𝑖=𝑛𝑛−5 𝜃𝜃𝑖𝑖
𝐸𝐸(𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑎𝑎 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷) = = 𝜃𝜃𝑛𝑛 = ( 3)
𝛼𝛼 + 𝛽𝛽 5
𝛼𝛼𝛼𝛼 ∑𝑛𝑛−1
𝑖𝑖=𝑛𝑛−5(𝜃𝜃𝑖𝑖 − 𝜃𝜃𝑛𝑛 )
2
𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉(𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷) = = 𝑆𝑆𝜃𝜃2𝑛𝑛 = ( 4)
(𝛼𝛼 + 𝛽𝛽)2 (𝛼𝛼 + 𝛽𝛽 + 1) (5 − 1)

Where E(…) and Var(…) stand for expected value and variance of the Beta distribution. On the other hand, random
number is implemented to shed light on possible usage of the RE sources through producing random data as current
information (likelihood function). Both information, the prior distribution and the likelihood function information are
applied to produce new information about RE consumption at future state, tn. From geometrical viewpoint (Fig. 2),
updating information leads the plausible next destination, Ɵn, to be changed to the expected value Ɵ ̂ n (here it is called
a forecasted value). However, this iterative proposed model is implemented for the total period of forecasting years.
2776 Reza Nadimi et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2773–2778
4 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

Energy
Data

Total energy
consumption
forecasting

Prior Beta
Distribution

Renewable Number of
Energy Random Number forecasting
year

Updating Bayesian
Inference (Posterior
Distribution)

Renewable Energy
Growth Rate
Analysis
Fig. 3: Conceptual framework of the renewable energy diffusion

3.2 Data

Total energy consumption and RE data of the Japan were collected for 25 years (1990 till 2014) from the IEA website
[18]. Generally, the RE data were included two parts: gross electricity generation (GWh) and gross heat production
(TJ). The RE sources in this research included municipal waste, industrial waste, primary solid biofuels, biogases,
liquid biofuels, geothermal, solar thermal, hydro, solar PV, wind, and tide &wave &ocean. In addition, 30 random
numbers were generated for each year to estimate the likelihood function’s parameters. The first twenty year’s data
were used for the forecasting, while the last five year’s data were kept for the verification of the proposed model. The
Average Absolute Error Percentage (AAEP) was then calculated to measure the error between the proposed and real
data by the following formula:
N  i  ˆi
AAEP 
100
N 1
i
( 5)

where N is the number of measurements which here is equal with 5 years.

4. Results and Discussion

According to the formula (2), total energy consumption was forecasted which its results are as follows:

𝑌𝑌̂𝑡𝑡 = 𝜌𝜌𝑥𝑥𝑡𝑡 + (1 − 𝜌𝜌)𝑌𝑌̂𝑡𝑡−1 𝑠𝑠. 𝑡𝑡. 𝜌𝜌 = 0.6149, 𝑥𝑥0 = 𝑥𝑥(1990) = 287022 ( 6)

Where the time index is equal to 1, 2,…,n. Therefore, the last five years data (2005 to 2009 years) were employed to
estimate the parameters of the prior distribution for the year 2010 (posterior distribution, here). Therefore, the last five
years data were used to obtain the expected value and the variance of the prior Beta distribution. After that, 30 random
numbers were generated through the obtained Beta distribution parameters. These 30 random number adjusted the
posterior distribution parameters (due to uncertainty in the forecasting of the RE sources). These steps were
implemented for the last five years (2010-2014) to achieve the proportion of the RE sources in the energy mix of the
Japan. Table 1 shows the results of the proposed model for the last five years to verify the proposed model.
 Reza Nadimi et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2773–2778 2777
Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 5

Table 1: Calculation of the proposed model for the last five years

Year (α, β) Prior (α, β) Posterior %RE Usage (Ktoe) Real %RE Usage (Ktoe)
Data ̂ n (Mean)
Forecasted or Ɵ
2010 (1.52, 51.71) (1.71, 46.65)
3.66 % (11292.32) 3.18 % (9838.97)
2011 (1.71, 46.65) (1.97, 51.17)
3.84 % (11608.77) 3.29 % (9940.90)
2012 (1.97, 51.17) (2.65, 60.25)
3.70 % (11158.47) 3.30 % (9934.20)
2013 (2.65, 60.25)
(2.69, 62.59) 3.97 % (12008.42) 3.32 % (10045.19)
2014 (2.69, 62.59)
(3.30, 92.18) 4.50 % (13292.00) 3.45 % (10197.46)

Verification of the proposed model based on the AAEP was carried out for the year 2010 to 2014. The value of AAEP
for the proposed model was 0.1557%, while for the FOESM approach the same criterion was 0.3648%. This article
defined four scenarios for the posterior distribution in terms of its mean and variance to consider the results of other
alternatives in the energy mix as well as the existence uncertainty.
According to the Fig. 4, renewable energy usage until 2030 was considered based on four scenarios in which the
average of the posterior distribution and its standard deviation (Sigma) were used to consider the each scenario.
Although, the estimation of the RE usage in terms of average has slightly growth, but it has a dramatic growth rate in
the presence of the standard deviation factor. For instance, forecasting energy consumption for the RE source with all
scenarios demonstrate a shock in the year 2028, but after the year 2029, the RE usage increases again. The AAEP
values for three status were as: AAEP (Mean+1*Sigma) = 0.0104, AAEP (Mean+2*Sigma) = 0.0464, and AAEP
(Mean+3*Sigma) = 0.0266.

40
RE Consumption Percentage

Mean
Mean+1*Sigma
Mean+2*Sigma
30 Mean+3*Sigma

20

10

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Year
Fig. 4: Percentage of RE consumption to total energy consumption

5. Conclusion

This study proposed a substitution model for the renewable energy consumption based on Bayesian inference and
random number generation. At first, the total energy consumption was estimated in terms of the last five years data
and then, the proportion of RE usage to total energy consumption was calculated. The five years period was chosen
based on the assumption that the RE projects belong to the medium term projects in country program. Energy
consumption and RE usage data were divided into two parts: fitting model, and model verification. The AAEP
criterion was used to evaluate the performance of the model. According to this criterion, the proposed model decreased
the total error percent as 0.2091% for the last 5 years (2010-2014). Moreover, the posterior distribution parameters
which were estimated through the proposed model, specified the growth rate of the RE usage. For the last scenario,
Mean+3*Sigma, the proportion of the RE consumption in the energy mix of the Japan reached to 29.61% until the
2030 year.
2778 Reza Nadimi et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2773–2778
6 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

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