Course Title: Business Statistics I

Rania GOUJA
FRESHMAN G10
Assignment #4: Probability Part2

Exercise #7

Arthur Andersen Enterprise Group/National Small Business United, Washington, conducted a

national survey of small-business owners to determine the challenges for growth for their
businesses. The top challenge, selected by 46% of the small business owners, was the economy.
A close second was finding qualified workers (37%). Suppose 15% of the small business
owners selected both the economy and finding qualified workers as challenges for growth. A
small-business owner is randomly selected.
Let: A=’ the business owner choose the economy’  P(A) = 0.46
B= ‘ the business owner choose “finding qualified workers”’  P(B) = 0.37
P(A and B) = 0.15
a. What is the probability that the owner believes the economy is a challenge for growth
if the owner believes that finding qualified workers is a challenge for growth?
𝑷(𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩) 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓
𝑷(𝑨 ⇂ 𝑩) = = = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟎𝟓
𝑷(𝑩) 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕
b. What is the probability that the owner believes that finding qualified workers is a
challenge for growth if the owner believes that the economy is a challenge for growth?
𝑷(𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩) 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓
𝑷(𝑩 ⇂ 𝑨) = = = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟐𝟔
𝑷(𝑨) 𝟎. 𝟒𝟔
c. Given that the owner doesnot select the economy as a challenge for growth, what is the
probability that the owner believes that finding qualified workers is a challenge for growth?
𝑷(𝑨′ 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩) 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑩 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑨) 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕 − 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓
𝑷(𝑩 ⇂ 𝑨′) = = = = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟎𝟕
𝑷(𝑨′) 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑨) 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟒𝟔
d. What is the probability that the owner believes neither that the economy is a challenge
for growth nor that finding qualified workers is a challenge for growth?
𝑷(𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩 ) = 𝑷(𝑨 ) − 𝑷(𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨 ) − 𝑷(𝑩|𝑨 ) ∗ 𝑷(𝑨 )
= 𝟎. 𝟓𝟒 − 𝟎. 𝟒𝟎𝟕 ∗ 𝟎. 𝟓𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟐

Exercise #8

Accounting Today reported that 37% of accountants purchase their computer hardware by mail
order direct and that 54% purchase their computer software by mail order direct. Suppose that
97% of the accountants who purchase their computer hardware by mail order direct purchase
their computer software by mail order direct.
If an accountant is randomly selected, determine the following probabilities:
Let A:”the accountant purchases his computer hardware by mail order direct”
P(A) = 0.37
B:”the accountant purchases his computer software by mail order direct”P(B) = 0.54
“97% of the accountants who purchase their computer hardware by mail order direct purchase
their computer software by mail order direct” P(B’A)=0.97
a. The accountant does not purchase his computer software by mail order direct given that
he does purchase his computer hardware by mail order direct.
𝑷(𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑩 ) 𝑷(𝑨) − 𝑷(𝑩 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑨) 𝑷(𝑨) − 𝑷(𝑩|𝑨) ∗ 𝑷(𝑨)
𝑷(𝑩 |𝑨) = = =
𝑷(𝑨) 𝑷(𝑨) 𝑷(𝑨)
= 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑩|𝑨) = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑
b. The accountant does purchase his computer software by mail order direct given that he
does not purchase his computer hardware by mail order direct.
𝑷(𝑩 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑨 ) 𝑷(𝑩) 𝑷(𝑩 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑨) 𝟎.𝟓𝟒 𝟎.𝟗𝟕∗𝟎.𝟑𝟕
𝑷(𝑩|𝑨′) = 𝑷(𝑨 )
= 𝟏 𝑷(𝑨)
= 𝟎.𝟔𝟑
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟖𝟕𝟓
c. The accountant does not purchase his computer hardware by mail order direct if it is
known that he does purchase his computer software by mail order direct.
𝑷(𝑩 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑨 ) 𝟎. 𝟏𝟖𝟏𝟏
𝑷(𝑨′|𝑩) = = = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟑𝟓
𝑷(𝑩) 𝟎. 𝟓𝟒
d. The accountant does not purchase his computer hardware by mail order direct if it is
known that he does not purchase his computer software by mail order direct.
𝑷(𝑩′ 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑨 ) 𝑷(𝑨′) − 𝑷(𝑩 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑨′) 𝟎. 𝟔𝟑 − 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕 ∗ 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕
𝑷(𝑨′|𝑩′) = = = = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖𝟗𝟑
𝑷(𝑩 ) 𝑷(𝑩′) 𝟎. 𝟒𝟔

Exercise #9

In a manufacturing plant, machine A produces 10% of a certain product, machine B produces

40% of this product, and machine C produces 50% of this product. Five percent of machine A
products are defective, 12% of machine B products are defective, and 8% of machine C products
are defective. The company inspector has just sampled a product from this plant and has found
it to be defective.
Determine the revised probabilities that the sampled product was produced by machine A,
machine B, or machine C.
Let: A:’ the product is manufactured by machine A’P(A)=0.1 and P(DA)=0.05
B:’ the product is manufactured by machine B’P(B)=0.4 and P(DB)=0.12
C:’ the product is manufactured by machine C’P(C)=0.5 and P(DC)=0.08
D:’the product is defective’
P(A and D)= P(A)*P(DA) = 0.10*0.05= 0.005
P(B and D)= P(B)*P(DB)=0.4*0.12=0.048
P(C and D)= P(C)*P(DC)= 0.5*0.08= 0.04
P(D) = P(A and D) +P(B and D)+ P(C and D) = 0.005+0.048+0.04=0.093
𝑷(𝑨 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑫)
𝐏(𝐀𝐃) = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓𝟑𝟕𝟔
𝑷(𝑫)
𝑷(𝑩 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑫)
𝐏(𝐁𝐃) = 𝑷(𝑫)
= 0.5161
𝑷(𝑪 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑫)
𝐏(𝐂𝐃) = 𝑷(𝑫)
= 𝟎.4301