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Ambuja Cements
Estimate change CMP: INR173 TP: INR190 (+10%) Neutral
TP change
Rating change Cost reduction leads to beat on margin
COVID-19 to impact volumes and margins in CY20E
Bloomberg ACEM IN Ambuja Cements (ACEM)’s 1QCY20 result reflects the adverse impact of
Equity Shares (m) 1,986
COVID-19. Despite 10% YoY decline in volumes, EBITDA grew 30% YoY due to
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 342.1 / 4.4
52-Week Range (INR) 240 / 137 higher realization and sequential decline in costs.
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 16/6/-5 We have cut our standalone CY20 volume estimate by a further 6% (to
12M Avg Val (INR M) 731 19.2mt, down 20% YoY), factoring the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. We
maintain CY21 estimates and a Neutral rating on the stock, with a target
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Dec 2019 2020E 2021E
price of INR190.
Sales 116.7 93.0 121.8 Cost-reduction-led beat on EBITDA
EBITDA 21.5 16.1 22.1 Volumes declined 10% YoY (due to the COVID-19 shutdown) to 5.77mt,
Adj. PAT 15.3 10.2 13.2
leading to a 3.4% YoY drop in revenue to INR28.2b (in line with estimates).
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.4 17.3 18.2
EBITDA rose 30% YoY (+10% QoQ) to INR6.0b, despite lower volumes, led by
Adj. EPS (INR) 7.7 5.1 6.7
EPS Gr. (%) 26.4 -33.2 29.4 a 7.0% YoY increase in realization to INR4,900/t (est. – INR4,924/t).
BV/Sh. (INR) 111.8 115.7 120.9 Unitary cost/t was 3%, lower than our est. of INR3,862 (-2.6% QoQ, flat YoY).
Ratios The EBITDA margin came in at 21.3% (+5.5pp YoY, +3.9pp QoQ).
Net D:E -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 Reported PAT at INR4.0b was lower 7% YoY and 12% QoQ (our est. –
RoE (%) 7.1 4.5 5.6 INR4.25bn) due to non-receipt of dividend income from ACC, expected to be
RoCE (%) 7.4 4.8 5.9 received in 2QCY20. Adj. of dividend income, PAT rose 35% YoY.
Payout (%) 19.5 24.3 22.5
Valuations Highlights from management commentary
P/E (x) 15.4 23.1 17.9 After the shutdown of operations for nearly four weeks, ACEM resumed
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0 operations at some of its plants in a phased manner.
EV/EBITDA(x) 8.1 10.3 7.9 The company recorded healthy volume growth over January–February, but
EV/ton (USD) 82.2 78.2 77.0 March volumes were impacted from shutdown due to COVID-19.
Div. Yield (%) 0.9 0.7 0.9 ACEM witnessed decline in power and fuel cost due to operational
FCF Yield (%) 3.6 0.2 3.8
efficiencies and lower prices, as well as a reduction in logistics cost.
The company expects demand to stabilize in the near term as rural demand
Shareholding pattern (%)
and construction (road and irrigation) should gain momentum post the
As On Dec-19 Sep-19 Dec-18
Promoter 63.1 63.1 63.1
lockdown.
DII 13.4 12.8 11.7 ACEM has adopted Ind-AS 116 from 1st Jan’20, which led to a reduction in
FII 16.8 17.5 17.5 freight cost by INR98.5m and rent by INR10m. On the other hand,
Others 6.7 6.7 7.7 depreciation expense rose INR159m and finance cost INR73m. Other
FII Includes depository receipts expenses were also higher by INR162m on account of foreign exchange
resulting from the translation of lease liability.
Valuation and view
We see limited share price upside in ACEM from current levels, given the
expected margin pressure due to the expiry of its incentives at Maratha
Cement Works as well as a fixed cost addition next year from its new plant
at Marwar Mundwa. We value ACEM at 9x CY21E EV/EBITDA and value its
stake in ACC at a 10% discount to the target price. We maintain our Neutral
rating, with a target price of INR190.
28 April 2020 2
Ambuja Cements
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1: Volumes declined 10% YoY, while realization was
up 7% YoY in 1QCY20 Exhibit 2: Margin expanded 390bp QoQ
Volumes (mt) Realisations (INR/t) EBITDA (INR mn) EBITDA margin (%)
4,961
24
4,859
23
4,783
21 21 22
4,651
4,645
4,594
4,581
18 17 18
4,528
4,511 16
4,455
4,450
15 16 16
4,421
14 15
4,194
3,582
4,039
4,633
6,984
4,398
5,474
3,291
3,941
6,510
3,544
5,406
5,071
6,223
6,033
6.0 6.1 5.0 5.9 6.3 6.4 5.5 6.1 6.4 5.9 5.3 6.5 5.8
Q3CY18
Q4CY18
Q1CY19
Q2CY19
Q3CY19
Q4CY19
Q1CY18
Q2CY18
Q4CY16
Q1CY17
Q2CY17
Q3CY17
Q4CY17
Q1CY18
Q2CY18
Q1CY20
Q1CY17
Q2CY17
Q3CY17
Q4CY17
Q3CY18
Q4CY18
Q1CY19
Q2CY19
Q3CY19
Q4CY19
Q1CY20
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
EBITDA/t (INR/t)
1,046
1,073
1,190
703
974
653
652
921
811
652
659
725
836
837
Q3CY17
Q2CY18
Q1CY20
Q4CY16
Q1CY17
Q2CY17
Q4CY17
Q1CY18
Q3CY18
Q4CY18
Q1CY19
Q2CY19
Q3CY19
Q4CY19
Source: MOFSL, Company
28 April 2020 3
Ambuja Cements
AMEC and its subsidiary ACC, and help unlock the benefits under the Master Supply
Agreement (MSA) between the two companies.
Valuation and view: We see a limited share price upside from current levels, given
the expected margin pressure due to the expiry of its incentives at Maratha Cement
Works, as well as a fixed cost addition next year from its new plant at Marwar
Mundwa. We value ACEM at 9x CY21E EV/EBITDA and value its stake in ACC at a
10% discount to the target price. We maintain our Neutral rating, with a target price
of INR190.
28 April 2020 4
Ambuja Cements
Story in charts
Exhibit 4: Utilizations to drop 65% in CY20 Exhibit 5: Expect EBITDA CAGR of 1.5% over CY19–21
Capacity (mt) Dispatches (mt) Cap. Util(%) EBITDA (INR bn) EBITDA Margin (%)
25.5
78.4 78.2 76.9 77.0 81.8 81.1 78.5 23.2
73.4 71.3 77.5
64.9 19.3 18.4 18.6 18.4 17.3 18.2
17.7 16.7
16.2
24.7
24.3
24.1
23.0
22.2
21.9
21.8
21.5
21.4
21.1
19.2
28.0
29.7
31.5
27.4
28.0
28.8
29.7
29.7
29.7
29.7
29.7 19.9 24.9 16.2 19.3 15.3 16.9 19.4 18.9 21.5 16.1 22.1
CY17
CY21E
CY11
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY18
CY19
CY20E
CY17
CY21E
CY11
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY18
CY19
CY20E
18.1
10.6
16.3
16.6
18.7
12.0
13.5
14.4
844
896
930
754
871
703
799
779
891
837
6.4
5.6
5.9
8.5
8.9
6.3
6.6
6.8
5.9
6.5
6.9
7.3
4.5
4.8
CY17
CY21E
CY17
CY21E
CY11
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY18
CY19
CY20E
CY11
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY18
CY19
CY20E
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
24 190
16 140
8 90
0 40
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-10
Apr-15
Apr-20
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
28 April 2020 5
Ambuja Cements
28 April 2020 6
Ambuja Cements
28 April 2020 7
Ambuja Cements
NOTES
28 April 2020 8
Ambuja Cements
28 April 2020 9
Ambuja Cements
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28 April 2020 10