Math 1040 Skittles Term Project

Report Introduction

For this project, we took a sample of regular sized bags of skittles. We counted the total
number each skittle color in each bag, as well as the total quantity of skittles per bag. Using our
personal data and class data, I will attempt to estimate the Confidence Interval (CI) and
Hypothesis Tests. The way we collected our data was by buying a regular sized bag of skittles,
counting each color, and inputting the data into the computer. The class data consisted of 31
bags of regular sized skittles. To configure the CI and Test for yellow skittles, I will be using the
data from my own sample. I’ll be using the class data from all of our samples to calculate the CI
and Tests for the number of skittles in a bag. The reason for this is because each bag of skittles
should roughly have the same quantity, but the amount of each color in a bag may vary.

Data Collection

Red Orange Yellow Green Purple Total

11 8 6 16 16 57

Red Orange Yellow Green Purple Total

369 339 410 358 385 1,877

Confidence Interval Estimates

A Confidence Interval measures the degree of certainty, and uncertainty, within a
sampling method. It states the probability of a population parameter falling between two points,
and larger CI is more accurate than a smaller CI.

1. We are trying to estimate p = the true proportion of ​yellow skittles​. Our best guess is PHAT=
0.105 ​but because of sampling variability, we are unlikely to be correct. So, we will calculate a
2.576​ z-interval for p.
2. Conditions : a. It’s a ​random sample
b. independence condition: Assume population​ is less than 5% of all yellow skittles
c. We hope that the population is normal but we will proceed with caution.

√
(.105)(.895)
3. ​99%​ CI = 0.105 ± 2.576 57 = ​( 0.00056, 0.20997 )
4. Thus, I am ​99​% confident that the interval from ​0.00056​ to ​0.20997​ captures the true
proportion of ​yellow skittles in a bag​.
1. We are trying to estimate μ = the average number of ​skittles in a bag​. Our best guess is
XBAR = ​60.55​ but because of sampling variability, we are unlikely to be correct. So, we will
calculate a ​1.697​ t-interval for μ.
2. Conditions : a. It’s a ​random sample
b. Sample ​1,877​ < 5% ​of all skittles
c. Normality- 31 >30 and the population is normal
3. ​95​% CI = 60.55 ± 1.697 3.81
√31
= ​( 59.152, 61.948 )
4. Thus, I am ​95​% confident that the interval from ​59.152​ to ​61.948​ captures the true average
number of skittles in a bag​.

To estimate the true proportion of yellow skittles in a bag, we used a 99% confidence
interval. After calculating the data, the proportion of yellow skittles in a bag would fall between
the points ( 0.00056, 0.20997 ).
To estimate the average amount of skittles in a bag, we used a 95% confidence interval.
After calculating the data, the average number of skittles in a bag would be between the points
( 59.152, 61.948 ).
Hypothesis Tests
A Hypothesis Test evaluates two mutually exclusive statements about a population, and
determines which statement is best supported by the sample data. Hypothesis tests allow us to
figure out whether to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.

1. At first glance, it appears that the true proportion p ​of red skittles​ is ​less than​ ​20%​ since
PHAT = ​0.193​. However, it is also possible that the true proportion is p= ​20%​ and we got a
sample proportion this ​low​ because of sampling variability. To decide, we will conduct a 1
sample z test for p (alpha = .05 )
2. Ho: p = 0.20 Ha: p < 0.20
3. Conditions: a) Random sample of ​red skittles
b) Independence 11<=2.85 proceed with caution
c) 57>30
0.20−.447
4. Z= (.443)(..553)
√ 57

5. Since .895> .05, we do not reject the null hypothesis.

1. At first glance, it appears that the true proportion p of ​skittles in a bag​ is ​greater​ than ​55​ since
PHAT= ​60.55​. However, it is also possible that the true proportion is p= ​55 ​and we got a sample
proportion this ​high​ because of sampling variability. To decide, we will conduct a 1 sample z test
for p (alpha = .01 )
2. Ho: μ = 55 Ha: μ > 55
3. Conditions: a) Random sample of ​number of skittles in a bag
b) yes, 55<=1,877
c) 31 > 30
60.55−55
4. t= 3.81/√31
5. Since .000 < .01, we reject the null hypothesis.

For the first hypothesis test, the null hypothesis stated that the number of red skittles in a
bag was less than 20%. After computing the data into the calculator, I found that p=0.447, and it
was given that alpha=0.05. Since 0.477 > 0.05, we don’t reject the null hypothesis because
there is not sufficient evidence.
For the second hypothesis test, the null hypothesis stated that the average number of
skittles in a bag was greater than 55. I found that p=0.000, and it was given that alpha=0.01.
Since 0.000 < 0.01, we reject the null hypothesis because there is sufficient evidence.
Reflection
While checking the conditions for the proportion of skittles in a bag, the sample was
random and it was less than the population of yellow skittles. The average number of skittles
was a random sample, and the sample population was less than 5% of the total amount of
skittles. Both confidence intervals were appropriate to calculate after meeting the conditions.
The conditions for hypothesis testing were mostly met for the proportion of red skittles in
a bag, and for the mean amount of skittles in a bag being greater than 55. Both samples were
random, but the independence of the proportion of red skittles was questionable. I decided to
proceed with caution. All other conditions were met.
Some errors that could have been made during this project could include a miscount of
skittles, some people may have bought the skittles that weren't an original package, and the fact
that not everyone in the class entered their skittle data. The sampling method could’ve been
improved if there was more data. Having more data would’ve created a more accurate and wide
spread data set. I found that, from this data, the average amount of skittles per bag is quite high.
I bought a bag of skittles that had less than the class average, but higher than the predicted
average. It just shows that the number of skittles in a bag varies.