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Summary
tablished; new market actors enter the playing
field; the expectations of the users increase. The
change of purchasing channels and the digi-
talisation of business processes have a strong
impact on the requirements for payments.
Competition in the payments sector becomes
generally fiercer and more intense, also due to
regulatory interventions which open the market
for new players and innovative technologies.
06
What’s going to happen next? It is not yet
possible to predict a clear direction of develop-
ment. However, fundamental changes are to be
expected: on the level of payment instruments,
of the level of the underlying technical infra-
structure and with regard to the functioning of
the entire ecosystem “payments“. The current
study investigates these changes.
Drivers of future These largely secured developments are
contrasted by various uncertainties which may
developments become important drivers of future develop-
ments. From a larger number of trends and driv-
ers, the study extracts the following key ques-
tions (cf. section 2):
There are three essential framework conditions
for future developments which we can already
name with great certainty. Instant Payments will 01 / What relevance will fintechs have for pay-
become a reality already in 2017/2018. The digi- ments in the year 2025?
talisation of the purchasing process and the use
of “smart“ end devices which are equipped with 02 / How far will global internet giants get in- 07
various sensors for the authentication of their volved in payment transactions by 2025?
users will proceed. Finally, a strict regulation
will lead to a further decline of return potentials 03 / How will customer behaviour develop by
from interchange fees for payment institutes the year 2025?
and the access to accounts for so-called initia-
tion service providers (PISPs) and account infor- 04 / To what extent will easily usable and at the
mation service providers (AISPs) will be opened same time highly secure authentication proce-
further. dures be available by 2025?
05 / How will the willingness to cooperate within future for the year 2025 (cf. figure 01 and a more
the banking industry develop by the year 2025 detailed description in chapter 03):
to establish innovations of payment transactions
successfully in the market? 01 / Diversity at the customer interface:
This scenario – the baseline scenario – largely
The future of payments depends to a large pursues the developments that can already be
extent on the answers to those questions. observed in the market today. The number of
services offered to access an account and to
process payments continues to grow, but no in-
novation succeeds in changing the market fun-
damentally over the next ten years.
08
Four scenarios for the
year 2025 02 / Added values in the world of digital banks:
The second scenario is mainly shaped by fin-
techs and pure digital banks which redefine
the customer interface and offer added values
As the questions raised above do not allow a to their customers on the basis of information
clear prognosis, the study uses various scenarios gathered about payment transactions.
to approach the future of payment systems – i.e.
consistent, coherent and clearly definable vi- 03 / Convenience in digital ecosystems: In this
sions of the future. From the possible answers to scenario, the global internet giants succeed in
the five key questions arise four scenarios of the taking over the interface to the customer and
to integrate the payment processing completely An analysis of the technologies that are rele-
into the business processes that they support. vant for payment processing has shown that the
vast majority of the identified technology trends
04 / Traditional banks on speed: In the fourth promote all four scenarios almost equally. At the
scenario, the banking industry uses its payment same time it was found that the ISO 20222-infra-
transaction infrastructure to integrate upstream structure, which the banking industry built in the
and downstream business processes into the context of the SEPA migration, is a very powerful
processing of payments and to introduce ser- technical foundation for the integration of com-
vice innovations. plete business processes into the clearing and
settlement process. Apart from the necessary
These sketchy descriptions make one thing clearing data, the ISO 20022 infrastructure the-
very clear: the question of which scenario is go- oretically allows the transmission of any informa- 09
ing to materialise is closely linked to the question tion in a structured form, end-to-end between
of who (i.e. which market players) will dominate payer and recipient. With the introduction of the
the development of innovations in the payments SEPA Cards Clearing (SCC), the German bank-
sector in the future. ing industry already demonstrated this capacity
with the integration of card payment data into
It furthermore becomes clear that none of the payment transactions. With this infrastruc-
the identified scenarios has a markedly disrup- ture and with the online banking as customer
tive character – in terms of a sudden change. All interface, the banking industry has a set of in-
scenarios could develop in a more or less rapid struments at its disposal which provide the op-
evolution. portunity- on the basis of a collective develop-
ment - to digitalise business processes of third
parties (e.g. invoicing) and integrate them into and could lead to entirely new business mod-
the clearing and settlement process. els in the payments sector. It is not yet possible
to predict the usability of both developments;
however, in theory both technologies have the
potential to change the infrastructure of pay-
ment transactions fundamentally (cf. chapter 4).
Possible game
changers
SCENARIO 03 SCENARIO 04
Convenience in digital ecosystems Traditional banks on speed
Figure 01
12
01
The network industry
payment systems
The increasing digitalisation of business processes comes along with
changes in the field of payment transactions. This chapter describes the
key characteristics of the transactions value chain and illustrates the par-
ticular character of innovations within this value chain.
and a recipient, enabled by a payment system bank or customer bank) or processing service
service provider. providers.
On the level of payer and recipient, it is pos- The amendment of the Payment Services Di-
sible to distinguish between their economic role rective introduced a new type of processing ser-
in the business process, the respective end de- vice provider into the value chain: these service
vice used for the processing of the transaction providers can take over essential parts of the
and – usually closely connected to devices used customer interface – via payment initiation ser-
by the parties – the technical channel used to vices and account information service – and can
process a transaction: use the technical infrastructure established by
the account-holding payment services providers
14 • Economic role in the business process: Private for this purpose.
customer, corporate customer or credit insti-
tute?
SUB - PROCESSES
• End device: Payment card, mobile device
(smart phone) or stationary PC? The payments value chain can be subdivided
into seven sub-processes (cf. figure 02): the
• Technical channel: ATM, POS terminal, inter- initiation (step 01) and authorisation (step 02)
net or shop? are followed by the clearing (step 03) between
the payer’s and the recipient’s account-holding
Payment system service providers are ei- service providers, which in turn is followed by
ther account-holding credit institutes (merchant the actual settlement (step 04). Finally, both
01 / The network industry payment systems
the payer and the recipient are provided with 01 / Payment initiation
information about the completed transaction
(step 05), and the payment equivalent is pro-
vided to the recipient (step 06). In a last step, 02 / Authorisation
complaints are processed if necessary (step 07).
starts with the customer approach or the cus- of payment systems, this perception is only par-
tomer’s search for a product, the comparison of tially correct.
various offers and the selection of the product
the customer wants to buy; it continues with the
ordering of the product, the delivery and the is- DRIVEN BY COMPETITION:
suing of an invoice; the process furthermore en- INNOVATIONS AT THE CUS TOMER
tails the customer service after the purchase and INTERFACE
the management of possible complaints. Impor-
tant services in this context are the appropriate Innovations that can be implemented in com-
information of the customer about current of- petition are, as a rule, innovations at the cus-
fers, the provision of loyalty-information and the tomer interface which leave the underlying in-
16 assessment of customer information to improve frastructure unaffected. Accordingly, the most
the customer approach. perceived changes in payments are currently
defined mainly by innovations at the customer
interface – i.e. a more customer-friendly display
of account information or an easier integration
Innovations in of payments into comprehensive electronic
ONLY POSSIBLE THROUGH dation was laid to introduce new services in ad-
COOPER ATION: INNOVATIONS OF dition to the processing of credit transfers and
THE INFRASTRUCTURE direct debits. These new services use the ability
of this infrastructure to transport data between
Innovative overlay services are contrasted with payer and recipient. It is a mandatory prerequi-
real infrastructure innovations – for instance site for such services that they are supported by
when it comes to the integration of new services the payment service providers of all payers and
into the payment systems or when defining new recipients of a payment system. These function
procedures for payment processing. Innovations extensions can thus only be implemented in a
of this kind always require a joint effort by all sys- cooperative innovation process.
tem participants. It thus follows that cooperation
is the basis for any genuine function extension or 17
improvement of the basic infrastructure. INCRE A SING INNOVATION PRESSURE
21
There are three essential framework condi- the digitalisation of the purchasing process as
tions for future developments which we can al- much as to the use of smart end devices that
ready name with great certainty today. Firstly, are equipped with a variety of sensors for the
Instant Payments will become a reality already authentication of their users. Thirdly, strict regu-
in 2017/2018. The only question that remains lations will further cut the return potential for
unanswered today is whether the introduction payment institutes from interchange fees; the
of Instant Payments will also be connected to regulations will furthermore open access to ac-
Real Time Settlement by the year 2025. Sec- counts for-so called payment initiation services
ondly, a number of complementary technology and account information services.
trends will contribute to the further progress of
the digitalisation of purchasing. This applies to
02 / The dynamics of the environment
These largely secured developments are con- 04 / To what extent will easily usable and at the
trasted by various critical uncertainties: same time highly secure authentication proce-
dures by available by 2025?
01 / What relevance will fintechs have for pay-
ments in the year 2025? Fintechs develop so- 05 / How will the willingness to cooperate within
called overlay services (cf. page 20) on basis of the banking industry develop by the year 2025
the banking industry infrastructure to imple- to establish innovations of payment transactions
ment innovations at the customer interface. successfully in the market?
02 / How far will global internet giants get in- Depending on the answers to these ques-
volved in payment transactions by 2025, to ben- tions, the future of payments will take very dif-
22 efit from the data resulting from payment trans- ferent shapes (cf. figure 03 and 04 and the de-
actions? tailed description in chapter 03). In this chapter,
we are first going to take a closer look at the five
03 / How will customer behaviour develop by topics mentioned above.
the year 2025? With regard to the acceptance
of innovations in payments, the sensitivity for
the protection of their own data, but also their
readiness to change account relations to benefit
from innovations.
02 / The dynamics of the environment
23
Figure 03
02 / The dynamics of the environment
01 What relevance will fintechs have by 2025? rather high very high medium medium
24 02
To what extent will global internet giants get
involved in payments by 2025? medium medium very strongly medium
Figure 04
02 / The dynamics of the environment
The digitalisation of the society facilitates the en- In many financial metropolises worldwide
try of new competitors into the financial services so-called accelerator or incubator programmes
market significantly - comparable to the devel- have been established. This development also
opments that could previously be observed in supports the emergence of internet services
the music and media economy. which are supposed to make paying faster, easier
02 / The dynamics of the environment
28
Global internet giants S TR ATEGIES OF THE INTERNET GIANTS
as payment services The sales channel via mobile end devices is sig-
nificantly determined by telecommunications
providers? providers, end device manufacturers (e.g. Apple
and Samsung) and operating system manufac-
turers (e.g. Google). The global internet giants
Digital mobility with internet-capable end user are specialised in adjusting their service offers
devices are the next logical step in the devel- to the needs of internet users and continuously
opment of the World Wide Web. Smart phones extend their service portfolio. Their financial re-
and tablets have conquered the market and are sources allow them to invest into different ser-
02 / The dynamics of the environment
vice innovations and to test them in the market. follows logically: they can support their custom-
This leads to extremely agile innovation politics ers in the selection of products and services and
and relegates traditional market participants to integrate the entire purchasing process.
comparatively passive roles.
So-called person-to-person payments rep-
The control over end devices - and thus over resent a particularly attractive gateway into the
an essential end of the value chain – together world of payments for the internet giants. The
with a financial strength that allows investments transfer of a - usually small – amount of money
into service innovations turns internet giants between two private individuals is at the centre
into serious competitors for traditional banks –at of this service. This business transfer in itself does
least when it comes to paying with smart phones not promise direct return; however, it has the po-
from within applications. tential of generating significant customer contact 29
and of promoting the establishment of new pay-
ment interfaces.
BUSINESS FIELD PAYMENT
TR ANSAC TIONS Internet giants always strive to integrate pay-
ments as closely as possible into their own eco-
Despite decreasing income, payment transac- system. Their strategies are often designed to use
tions are still an interesting field of business, par- the data which becomes available in the context
ticularly for internet giants. Their business models of payments for a targeted approach to their cus-
are essentially based on covering as many areas tomer groups; this shall increase customer loyalty.
of their customers’ lives as possible. Integrating Providers of products and services - among oth-
payments into their service portfolio thus only ers also financial services – are granted access to
02 / The dynamics of the environment
A study on the payment behaviour with re- turnover and the growing up of a generation
gard to “girocard” conducted by GfK on be- which is enthusiastic about technology are two
half of EURO Kartensysteme confirms these factors that contribute to a general change of
results. The GfK-study, which was conducted payment behaviour.
in 2014/2015, stipulates that half of the German
population does not have any preferences with In a nutshell: The usage behaviour with regard
regard to cash payments or card-based pay- to payments is unlikely to change in the short term.
ments. 88% of people living in Germany, i.e. the Even product improvements - for instance con-
vast majority, has no intention of changing the tactless payments or the possibility to use smart
use of their cards. Studies from other countries phones for payments – will only lead to a change
also confirm that people change change their in customer behaviour if considerable efforts are
32 habits only very slowly when it comes to the invested into customer communications. However,
means of payment. the generation change will certainly lead to a high-
er acceptance of innovative payment methods in
the long-term.
CHANGING PAYMENT BEHAVIOUR OF
YOUNGER TARGET GROUPS
SECURIT Y
tication” method for the online access to their therefore increase customer acceptance signifi-
account. Even though it is possible to waive the cantly.
obligation for strong authentication for certain
transaction based on a risk analysis, all customers With procedures that require a frequent au-
have to be provided with the means for strong thentication of the customer (card-based pay-
authentication. ments, online-banking-systems) and the high
degree of trust that customers place in credit
institutes, they are generally well-positioned to
CONVENIENCE establish new authentication procedures suc-
cessfully in the market.
Authentication procedures can only be estab-
34 lished successfully in the market if the custom- With the launch of Apple Pay, a new aspect
ers accept and use them. From a customer’s for the further development of authentication
perspective, convenience is a decisive factor for procedures arose: the apparently high degree
acceptance. of market acceptance of biometrical proce-
dures. At least if they are convenient, i.e. if the
However, the “convenience” of a specific authentication is integrated as smoothly as pos-
procedure is not an objectively measurable vari- sible into the transaction processing.
able. Whether an authentication mechanism is
considered to be convenient strongly depends
on how familiar a user is with the authentication
mechanism. A standardisation of the authenti-
cation procedures of various applications can
02 / The dynamics of the environment
position of the banking industry as the operator ambitious projects for the further development
of the payments infrastructure. of the payments infrastructure. On 2 December
2014, the banks officially announced that they
By maintaining an effective platform man- commissioned SWIFT to develop a new pay-
agement for the targeted further development ments platform for Australia. This new payments
of the payments infrastructure, the banking in- platform (short: NPP) shall be put into operation
dustry itself can therefore strongly influence the in 2017 and it is supposed to offer a genuine real
emergence of payment innovations. The Swed- time-processing for retail payments.
ish banking industry, for instance, successfully
established a Near Real Time Settlement sys-
tem for retail payments. On this basis, new ser- THE ISO 20 022 INFR A S TRUC TURE
36 vices like Swish for person-to-person payments
were introduced. On the whole, the experiences Among the most important infrastructure plat-
made in Europe so far indicate that initiative of forms within the German banking industry is,
this kind can only be implemented successfully on the one hand, the ISO 20022 infrastructure
if they are supported by the entire banking in- which was built in the context of the SEPA mi-
dustry of a country. In contrast to that, individu- gration. In theory, this infrastructure allows the
al initiatives with similar contents which are not transmission of any data between a payer and a
interoperable within one country are generally recipient in a structured form. The SEPA Cards
less accepted in the market place. Clearing, which was introduced in 2015/2016, is
a first example of such an infrastructure which
A consortium of Australian banks is conduct- enables the clearing of card payments on the
ing what is considered one of the currently most basis of the ISO 20022 infrastructure.
Another important infrastructure platform of
the banking industry are the chipcards issued by
the banking industry. The chipcards are a pow-
erful instrument for the identification of custom-
ers and for the protection of transaction data.
With the current contactless interface extension
of the chipcard, the “secure elements” issued
by credit institutes are equipped with additional
communication options which make them more
independent of conventional card readers.
37
38
03
Four scenarios for the future of
payment systems in Germany
How is the fintech market going to develop? Which strategies do global
internet giants follow in the area of payments? Are the customers ready to
accept fundamental innovations in payment transactions? To what extent
are easy and secure authentication procedures available? What about the
willingness to cooperate within the banking industry to create innovations
together?
From the perspective of 2016, it is not possible sidered the baseline scenario (without any sur- 39
to give a clear answer to these questions about prises). In the next three scenarios, one crucial
the future. This chapter therefore tries to ap- group of actors at a time succeeds in achieving a
proach the above questions by giving various dominant role in the payments business: the fin-
possible answers in the form of four alternative techs, which develop further into digital banks
coherent and strictly delimited future scenarios (scenario 02), the digital ecosystems of the
(cf. figure 05 at the end of this chapter). global internet giants (scenario 03) or the classic
credit institutes, who assert themselves against
Scenario 01 largely carries forward the devel- the new competition with innovation campaigns
opments which can already be observed today (scenario 04).
towards more diversity at the customer inter-
face. For this reason this scenario can be con-
Scenario 01
Diversity at the
customer
interface
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
In 2025, the dominance of individual payment the innovative competition. Banks run the risk
schemes will be a thing of the past. Banks, fin- of being reduced to account-holding and the
techs and the ecosystems orchestrated by the clearing and settlement of transactions, while
global internet giants share a highly competitive the competition increasingly takes over the cus-
market. Many fintechs have an extremely short tomer interface and the account information
lifespan due to the predatory competition and services.
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
Central
customer requirements Manifold needs, search for customised individual solutions.
2015 -2025: WHAT BROUGHT ABOUT The interaction of both factors has produced
THIS DE VELOPMENT? a large variety of payment options which were
established successfully in the market. The banks
Decisive factors for the development in the react to the growing competition by expanding
years 2015 to 2025 were the continuous invest- their own payment offers. However, these offers
ment boom in the area of fintechs and the open- do not offer any particular additional benefit
ing of the customer interface, initiated by the and are integrated into the apps of third par-
European Union: ties who thus take over the customer interface.
Hence, the banks are less and less successful in
• Global, but particularly European fintechs, maintaining customer loyalty via the payment
were provided with risk capital on a large scale. interface.
44 New products are entering the market continu-
ously. The course for the fintech boom has thus
been determined. However, most offers still lack 2025: WHERE DO THE AC TORS S TAN D?
a solid business case in 2025.
Competition for the customer interface is ex-
• In conformity with the requirements defined by tremely fierce in 2025. A countless number of
Brussels, the banks have opened the access for national and global fintechs act as innovation
overlay services via the API interface. New pay- engine, particularly in the area of overlay servic-
ment initiation services and account information es. The market is strongly fragmented. So far, no
services emerged, they are well accepted by the dominant volume provider was able to prevail
customers. in the market. The half-life period of the numer-
ous payment initiation services and account in-
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
formation services is short. Banks were forced convenience, security, data protection, costs
to largely abandon the payment business at the etc. payment procedures are selected in the
customer interface. The margins in this area are specific situation. Customer loyalty is low.
small anyway. The credit institutes focus their ef-
forts on account management and on clearing In the area of payment systems, retailers are
and settlement services. But the Fintechs’ bal- driven by demands. Despite the short lifespan
ance sheets also present mixed pictures. Many of many payment systems, retailers mostly sup-
providers who created sensations with their in- port a wide range of payment procedures– at
novative concepts in 2020 have already disap- the point-of-sale, online and for mobile devices.
peared completely from the market by 2025. Everything is subordinated to one goal: pre-
Only very few offers and business models are vent at any cost that purchases are cancelled
profitable in the long-term. As soon as a pay- because a payment systems is not supported. 45
ment system reaches a larger volume in the Many retailers try to win the loyalty of regular
market, it must meet comprehensive obligations customers by providing their own apps which
and regulations. This leads to higher costs per integrate payment options via in-app payments.
unit.
Jens pays directly at the shop assistant’s mobile The wallet is connected to the mobile or station-
terminal. ary terminal via NFC.
His wallet with payment function is integrated Jens is authenticated for the payment process
into his sports armband which he wears day and by means of a fingerprint scan on his own arm-
night. band.
The self-check-out at the central cash desk area Alternatively, he can use his mobile phone for
would have been an alternative option. The cash payment and use not only fingerprints but also 47
register systems accept cash, many payment face or voice recognition as means of authenti-
cards and a large number of wallet systems with cation.
different standards.
He chooses the payment service provider in the
Jens receives the payment receipt by email. respective app.
Carlos orders and pays directly via his smart TV. Authentication for the payment procedure is
conducted via a fingerprint scanner on the re-
He has a subscription, including direct debit mote control of the smart TV.
mandate, with the food delivery service. That
is a preferred standard payment procedure if The smart TV is furthermore equipped with a
there is a relationship of thrust. Billing and other camera system to enable video phone calls with
methods are also possible. his grandson.
He authorises the order with his fingerprint on If the coordination and skills of his hands should 49
his remote control. decrease further, Carlos has an alternative op-
tion to authorise payments: he can look directly
The account management app on his smart TV into the camera and say “initiate payment pro-
automatically updates his housekeeping book cedure“. Face and voice are authenticated by
and warns him in case of account overdrafts or the smart TV.
irregularities.
Scenario 02
Added values in
the world of
digital banks
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
52
Thanks to their convincing added value offers, services, these solutions are very convincing;
certain fintechs that cooperate with white label the same applies to offers that are based on an
banks grow significantly in the period from 2015 insight into the customers’ behaviour. Financial
to 2025. The same applies to digital banks that services and other services are digitalised quick-
place their bets on innovative fintech solutions. ly and extensively. Multi-channel banks tend to
Customers move their salary accounts to digi- have a competitive disadvantage compared to
tal banks and direct banks on a massive scale. pure digital banks due to their cost structures.
These banks offer solutions that are conceptual- Payment initiation services are hardy affected at
ised thoroughly from a customer’s perspective. all by this development.
Particularly in the area of account information
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
Top fintech companies bundle their offers and cooperate with white
Role of the fintechs label banks and direct banks.
Central customer Transparent real time information on all account movements and
requirements suitable financing offers without effort.
2015 -2025: WHAT BROUGHT ABOUT Who are these new, market-dominating digi-
THIS DE VELOPMENT? tal banks of the year 2025? On the one hand,
they are institutes that emerged from the coop-
Various factors contributed to the rise of the eration of top-fintechs and white-label-banks.
digital banks by 2025. The customers’ willing- On the other hand they are direct banks (includ-
ness to change their account relations proved ing investment banks and automobile banks)
to be high; at the same time, obstacles for ac- that have extended their service offers and po-
count changes were removed. Online identifica- sitioned themselves as digital banks.
tion methods strongly simplified the registration
with new providers; account switching services
enable a smooth change of the salary accounts. 2025: WHERE DO THE AC TORS S TAN D?
54 The advantage of a branch network has been
strongly relativised. Customers benefit from e- In 2025, digital banks are already holding 50
services and use branches less and less. million salary accounts. In essence, their busi-
ness models are based largely on value added
Digital banks are able to score at the custom- services. Account information services and mo-
er interface without having any branches. They bile services deepen their understanding of the
use advanced algorithms to predict consumer customers’ needs. They detect customer needs
behaviour. On this basis, they offer real-time and with algorithmic intelligence and communicate
low-threshold added value services tailored to context-related offers in real time. They are thus
the customers’ needs. The customers can con- able to offer pro-active solutions in the account
figure the payment services and added value of- information services, solutions that are con-
fers individually and conveniently. venient, cheap and always available. However,
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
fundamentally new payment initiation services tensive personal consulting services move their
could not be established successfully in the mar- accounts to digital banks. The traditional banks
ket. are trying to catch up by building digital spin-
off banks; however, the necessary restructuring
The prototypical customer of the year 2025 of their branch system restricts their room for
wants a bank that thinks and acts to make the manoeuver.
customer’s life easier. The customers want to
decide on their individual preferences for pay-
ments and account services. Digital banks sup-
port the customers in a large number of recur-
ring daily tasks, e.g. matching of money flows
and invoices, documents for the tax authorities, 55
warnings in case of irregular account move-
ments. The administration of financial matters -
inconvenient from a customer’s point of view – is
highly simplified.
After she has selected all products she wants to The product recognition in the trolley is imple-
buy, Ms Gutierres goes through the self-check- mented via RFID-Technology.
out zone. There is no more need for queuing.
The data is transferred via Bluetooth or NFC to
The cash register system reads the product data the customer‘s mobile end device.
from the banking app and states the total price
of the purchase price. All Ms Gutierres has to do For payment, either the card data is read from
know is to confirm the payment. the customer’s e-wallet stored on her mobile
phone (via NFC), or biometrical face recognition 57
The more often Ms Gutierres goes shopping at of is used in combination with a direct debit or
a specific store, the higher the discount she gets alternative payment procedure. After all, there
at the cash desk. are a lot of payment procedures which can be
used.
The receipts are provided electronically and are
transferred into the virtual housekeeping book The banks analyse the consumer behaviour of
by her bank. The receipts are sorted according their customers by means of their added value
to category. services; on this basis, they agree on discount
arrangements with the retailers.
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
The payment function is integrated into the su- Authentication procedures are based on finger-
permarket app and offers various payment op- prints or face recognition (frontal camera) via the
tions. smart phone.
In accordance with her preferences, the digital The smart phone itself serves as a token.
bank recommends that Kirsten should use “Di-
gibank Pay“ as payment method, a kind of se- The account data and the access to the online
cure and comfortable credit transfer from the banking services are stored on the smart phone;
online account. Identification via fingerprint only paying by means of the customer‘s own digital 59
takes one second. end device works very quickly.
Complaints are also very easy to handle in the The communication is encrypted with state-of-
digital bank shopping app. Despite electronic the-art procedures (elliptic curve cryptography).
verification, something can still go wrong some-
times with the express service for outgoing
goods or during deliveries. The shopping insur-
ance of the digital banks handles damages and
takes care of a quick subsequent delivery.
Scenario 03
Convenience
in digital
ecosystems
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
The global internet giants have a tight hold on the world of payment
systems. Their ecosystem reflects comprehensively the business pro-
cesses for B2B and B2C – including the payment services. The consumers
benefit from comfortable purchasing and paying services. The integrated
payment systems of the digital ecosystems are also popular in stationary
62 shops.
In the years up to 2025, the payment and wal- services. The banks lose the direct access to
let systems of the digital ecosystems achieve a customers little by little. They have to make an
breakthrough. The internet giants exploit their effort to get their payment systems into the wal-
market power in the online business and their lets of the global tech-giants to prevent being
direct access to digital end devices, primar- left completely behind when it comes to pay-
ily smart phones and tablet. The customers fi- ments.
nally enjoy comfortable shopping and payment
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
63
Role of traditional banks Focus on account management and interbank infrastructure.
Central customer Convenience: easy, quick and cheap shopping and paying; benefit-
requirements ing from loyalty programmes and individual recommendations.
2015 -2025: WHAT BROUGHT ABOUT emerging success stories in 2015, also offer little
THIS DE VELOPMENT? resistance.
Ms Fritz registers her rented car at the car park Initiation of payment procedure via NFC.
via the NFC of her smart phone. The system links
the payment data to the car‘s registration plate. Authentication by means of fingerprint on the
When she leaves the car park with the car, the smart phone.
invoice is automatically issued and delivered.
Simon wants to buy a new 80’’-Smart-TV from Real time credit assessment based on the ac-
Amazon. count history.
Traditional
banks
on speed
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
Central customer Security, as long as this security does not interfere with convenience
requirements and easy use.
Maxi’s father uses the app of his bank to send Secure mobile banking with an instrument is-
her 150 euros. He holds his girocard against his sued by the bank used as a token. This token can
mobile phone – a result of the security setting also be used for access to other online services.
which he put to “high security“. His app informs
him that the money has been transferred to The credit transfer is processed as Instant Pay-
Maxi’s bank account. ment.
Maxi‘s mother immediately knows that Maxi’s fa- Account information services are configurable in
ther sent her the money – although her account accordance with individual preferences. 77
is at a different bank. Her banking app informs
her about any movements on her husband‘s ac- Traditional payments with cards or mobile
count. This way, both are always kept up-to-date phones at the point-of-sale.
about their liquid resources.
Immediately after Renate has place her order, Linking of any alias to the IBAN, in this case the
the merchant banks knows where the order mobile phone number.
came from, thanks to the addressing service of-
fered by the banking industry; this service uses Authorisation via fingerprint.
the mobile phone number to identify the order-
er. The merchant bank then communicates the Electronic Bill Presentment and Payment ena-
payment and invoicing data to Renate‘s account bles the transfer of billing information in the
holding banks. context of payment messages. The online bank-
ing shows all incoming invoices clearly arranged 79
Renate‘s banking app now shows her the invoice and allows convenient payment.
issued by the merchant and the filled in credit
transfer form, listed next to each other. All Re-
nate has to do now is to authorise the payment
with her fingerprint. Only ten seconds have
passed since she placed the order.
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
SCENARIO 01 SCENARIO 02
Diversity at the customer interface Added values in the world of digital banks
Dominant actors in the New fintechs appear all the time and Digital and direct banks design their
payments market try to take over the customer interface; service thoroughly from a customer’s
banks try to keep up; they are more and perspective and support their customers
more reduced to background services. in all standard financial matters.
80
Main consumer Customers are demanding. They have The customers want to be transparently
demands many different requirements for payment informed about their bank accounts
procedures and are looking for custom- movements in real time. They want to
made and individual solutions. receive the best financing offers from the
account holding bank - without effort.
Predominant payment Diversity of payment methods; most pay- Transfer-based mobile payment apps
procedures ment innovations have short lifespans. partially replace payment cards. In e-
commerce, payment initiation is domi-
nated by payment initiation services; at
the POS it is dominated by card payment
schemes.
Figure 05
03 / Four scenarios for the future of payment systems in Germany
SCENARIO 03 SCENARIO 04
Convenience in digital ecosystems Traditional banks on speed
Few global digital ecosystems substan- Banks defend their role in the payments
tially expand their payment services and market by an innovation boost, based on
oust other service providers. They ex- Instant Payments and the use of the ISO
pand into stationary retail and dominate 20022 infrastructure.
at the point-of-sale.
81
Customers want to shop and pay easily, Customers are rather conservative and
quickly and at favourable prices. They attach importance to security, as long
wish to profit from loyalty programmes as the payment procedure is easy and
and individual recommendations. convenient.
Payment via proprietary wallets of the Customers use the P2P payment options
ecosystems across all channels; wallets offered by their banks for the payment
are stored on the customers‘ smart of small amounts. Customers authorise
phones. Global card payment systems larger amounts via their online-banking
cooperate with tech-giants and dominate after bill presentment.
the payment processing.
82
04
Possible game changers
The scenarios developed in the previous chapter have an evolutionary
character rather than a disruptive one: they can materialise at a slower
or quicker pace and without an explicit rupture. Furthermore, none
of the scenarios is based on a technological breakthrough. A technol-
ogy analysis conducted in the course of the “project 2025“ has shown,
however, that there are two technologies that have the potential to
shake the foundations of the world of payments: quantum computers
and the blockchain.
83
Quantum computers ous different states at the same time. The tradi-
tional bits of information processing can thus be
generalised to quantum bits (qubits) which allow a
Quantum computers use phenomena from quan- superposition of the states “0“ and “1“. Quantum
tum physics for information processing. Com- computers offer the possibility of processing these
pared to traditional physics, the systems in quan- various states of a superposition at the same time.
tum physics do not have a sharply defined state, Since the number of possible states in a quantum
but rather exist in form of superpositions of vari- mechanical superposition increase exponentially
04 / Possible game changers
with the number of qubits, the performance of in- SHOULD WE E XPEC T THE DISRUP TION
formation processing improves significantly com- BY 2025?
pared to traditional parallel computers.
Currently, quantum computer are still at a com-
paratively early stage of research. The most ad-
WHY ARE QUANTUM COMPUTERS DIS - vanced experimental prototypes presently only
RUP TIVE FOR PAYMENT have up to approximately ten qubits. Nonethe-
TR ANSAC TIONS? less, the Canadian company D-Wave already
offers a commercial system. This system, how-
The security of the widespread asymmetrical ever, is designed for the solution of optimisation
encryption procedures is based on the fact problems and is thus not suited for the imple-
84 that the prime factorisation of a large figure is mentation of the above-mentioned Shor-Algo-
not feasible with the computing power of cur- rithm. Nevertheless, during the last few years,
rent computers. As early as 1994, P. Shor pub- a few important advancements were made (e.g.
lished an algorithm which solves this factorisa- in the area of error detection); these advance-
tion problem quickly with the help of a quantum ments lead to the initiation of additional invest-
computer. Quantum computers could therefore ment programmes for quantum computers. This
be used to break the encryption procedures could increase the development dynamics even
which are usually used today. further in the coming years.
04 / Possible game changers
The study “Paying in 2025“ is also based on A broad online study was carried out to in-
a classic scenarios process (cf. figure 06). A sys- terview national and international payments ex-
tematic environment analysis of the factors that perts on the drivers of change, their future de-
influence the development of payments forms velopments and the importance for the future
the basis for the selection of key factors of fu- of payments. The results were discussed with
ture developments. Among the key questions representatives of the German banking industry
discussed were the following ones: and concentrated to scenarios from which impli-
cations were deduced.
• How could the requirements of consumers and 89
merchants - and thus the requirements for pay- The most influential factors build the pillars
ment systems – change by 2025? for the development of plausible and consistent
scenarios of the future. The experts determined
• How could the market and competition in the plausible future developments for these factors.
payments sector develop by 2025? The scenarios were built and deepened by link-
ing the various factors. Furthermore, an impact
• How is the regulation going to develop by analysis was conducted to evaluate the impacts
2025? What will be the resulting influence in the of various scenarios of the different participants
area of payment systems? in payments.
The scenario process was designed by
Z_punkt The Foresight Company, and is based
on many years of methodological knowledge. In
a parallel process, the Fraunhofer INT analysed
future technologies and attributed them to the
scenarios.
90
Methodology
91
What are the most Which of these in- Which of these Which opportu- Which fields of
important factors fluence factors are alternative projec- nities, risks and technology will
that will influence central drivers of tions are consistent possible courses influence future
payments in Ger- development? with each other? of action for the payment systems?
many in the future? German banking
Which alternative What are plausible sector result from How far will
future develop- and probable sce- these scenarios? technology mature
ments (projections) narios for paying by 2025?
of these factors are in 2025?
possible?
Figure 06
Involved
In the course of the project we enjoyed the sup-
port of a large number of experts, and we would
experts
like to seize this opportunity to thank them all on
behalf of SRC, Z_punkt and Fraunhofer INT.
TR ANSL ATION
PUBLISHER Christina Dahl, SRC
SRC Security Research & Consulting GmbH
Emil-Nolde-Str. 7 EDITING AND GR APHIC DESIGN
53113 Bonn KARO, www.karo.berlin
Germany
www.src-gmbh.de
© 2016 SRC GmbH
All rights reserved.
type=”ActiveOrHistoricCurrencyAndAmo </xs:sequence> type=”CashAccount24”/> type=”PartyIdentification43”/> curs=”0” name=”Nm” type=”Max140Text”/>
unt”/> </xs:complexType> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” </xs:sequence>
<xs:element <xs:complexType name=”RemittanceLoca curs=”0” name=”ThrdRmbrsmntAgt” typ minOccurs=”0” name=”TaxRmt” </xs:complexType>
maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOc- tionDetails1”> e=”BranchAndFinancialInstitutionIdentific type=”TaxInformation4”/> <xs:complexType
curs=”0” name=”DscntApldAmt” <xs:sequence> ation5”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” name=”TaxInformation3”>
type=”DiscountAmountAndType1”/> <xs:element name=”Mtd” type=”Rem <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- minOccurs=”0” name=”GrnshmtRmt” <xs:sequence>
<xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- ittanceLocationMethod2Code”/> curs=”0” name=”ThrdRmbrsmntAgtAcct” type=”Garnishment1”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
curs=”0” name=”CdtNoteAmt” type=”Active <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” type=”CashAccount24”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”3” curs=”0” name=”Cdtr” type=”TaxParty1”/>
OrHistoricCurrencyAndAmount”/> minOccurs=”0” name=”ElctrncAdr” </xs:sequence> minOccurs=”0” name=”AddtlRmtInf” <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
<xs:element type=”Max2048Text”/> </xs:complexType> type=”Max140Text”/> curs=”0” name=”Dbtr” type=”TaxParty2”/>
maxOccurs=”unbounded” mi- <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” <xs:simpleType </xs:sequence> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1”
nOccurs=”0” name=”TaxAmt” minOccurs=”0” name=”PstlAdr” name=”SettlementMethod1Code”> </xs:complexType> minOccurs=”0” name=”AdmstnZn”
type=”TaxAmountAndType1”/> type=”NameAndAddress10”/> <xs:restriction base=”xs:string”> <xs:complexType type=”Max35Text”/>
<xs:element </xs:sequence> <xs:enumeration value=”INDA”/> name=”SupplementaryData1”> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1”
maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOc- </xs:complexType> <xs:enumeration value=”INGA”/> <xs:sequence> minOccurs=”0” name=”RefNb”
curs=”0” name=”AdjstmntAmtAndRsn” <xs:simpleType name=”RemittanceLocatio <xs:enumeration value=”COVE”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” type=”Max140Text”/>
type=”DocumentAdjustment1”/> nMethod2Code”> <xs:enumeration value=”CLRG”/> minOccurs=”0” name=”PlcAndNm” <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
<xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- <xs:restriction base=”xs:string”> </xs:restriction> type=”Max350Text”/> curs=”0” name=”Mtd” type=”Max35Text”/>
curs=”0” name=”RmtdAmt” type=”ActiveOr <xs:enumeration value=”FAXI”/> </xs:simpleType> <xs:element name=”Envlp” type=”Su <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
HistoricCurrencyAndAmount”/> <xs:enumeration value=”EDIC”/> <xs:complexType pplementaryDataEnvelope1”/> curs=”0” name=”TtlTaxblBaseAmt” type=”A
</xs:sequence> <xs:enumeration value=”URID”/> name=”SettlementTimeRequest2”> </xs:sequence> ctiveOrHistoricCurrencyAndAmount”/>
</xs:complexType> <xs:enumeration value=”EMAL”/> <xs:sequence> </xs:complexType> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
<xs:complexType <xs:enumeration value=”POST”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- <xs:complexType name=”SupplementaryD curs=”0” name=”TtlTaxAmt” type=”ActiveOr
name=”RemittanceAmount3”> <xs:enumeration value=”SMSM”/> curs=”0” name=”CLSTm” type=”ISOTime”/> ataEnvelope1”> HistoricCurrencyAndAmount”/>
<xs:sequence> </xs:restriction> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- <xs:sequence> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
<xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- </xs:simpleType> curs=”0” name=”TillTm” type=”ISOTime”/> <xs:any namespace=”##any” curs=”0” name=”Dt” type=”ISODate”/>
curs=”0” name=”DuePyblAmt” type=”Active <xs:complexType <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- processContents=”lax”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
OrHistoricCurrencyAndAmount”/> name=”ServiceLevel8Choice”> curs=”0” name=”FrTm” type=”ISOTime”/> </xs:sequence> curs=”0” name=”SeqNb” type=”Number”/>
<xs:element <xs:choice> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- </xs:complexType> <xs:element
maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOc- <xs:element name=”Cd” type=”Exter curs=”0” name=”RjctTm” type=”ISOTime”/> <xs:complexType name=”TaxAmount1”> maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOccurs=”0”
curs=”0” name=”DscntApldAmt” nalServiceLevel1Code”/> </xs:sequence> <xs:sequence> name=”Rcrd” type=”TaxRecord1”/>
type=”DiscountAmountAndType1”/> <xs:element name=”Prtry” </xs:complexType> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” </xs:sequence>
<xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- type=”Max35Text”/> <xs:complexType name=”StructuredRegul minOccurs=”0” name=”Rate” </xs:complexType>
curs=”0” name=”CdtNoteAmt” type=”Active </xs:choice> atoryReporting3”> type=”PercentageRate”/> <xs:complexType
96
OrHistoricCurrencyAndAmount”/> </xs:complexType> <xs:sequence> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- name=”TaxInformation4”>
<xs:element <xs:complexType name=”SettlementDateT <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- curs=”0” name=”TaxblBaseAmt” type=”Acti <xs:sequence>
maxOccurs=”unbounded” mi- imeIndication1”> curs=”0” name=”Tp” type=”Max35Text”/> veOrHistoricCurrencyAndAmount”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
nOccurs=”0” name=”TaxAmt” <xs:sequence> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- curs=”0” name=”Cdtr” type=”TaxParty1”/>
type=”TaxAmountAndType1”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” curs=”0” name=”Dt” type=”ISODate”/> curs=”0” name=”TtlAmt” type=”ActiveOrHis <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
<xs:element minOccurs=”0” name=”DbtDtTm” <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” toricCurrencyAndAmount”/> curs=”0” name=”Dbtr” type=”TaxParty2”/>
maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOc- type=”ISODateTime”/> minOccurs=”0” name=”Ctry” <xs:element <xs:element maxOccurs=”1”
curs=”0” name=”AdjstmntAmtAndRsn” <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” type=”CountryCode”/> maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOccurs=”0” minOccurs=”0” name=”UltmtDbtr”
type=”DocumentAdjustment1”/> minOccurs=”0” name=”CdtDtTm” <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- name=”Dtls” type=”TaxRecordDetails1”/> type=”TaxParty2”/>
<xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- type=”ISODateTime”/> curs=”0” name=”Cd” type=”Max10Text”/> </xs:sequence> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1”
curs=”0” name=”RmtdAmt” type=”ActiveOr </xs:sequence> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- </xs:complexType> minOccurs=”0” name=”AdmstnZone”
HistoricCurrencyAndAmount”/> </xs:complexType> curs=”0” name=”Amt” type=”ActiveOrHistor <xs:complexType type=”Max35Text”/>
</xs:sequence> <xs:complexType icCurrencyAndAmount”/> name=”TaxAmountAndType1”> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1”
</xs:complexType> name=”SettlementInstruction4”> <xs:element <xs:sequence> minOccurs=”0” name=”RefNb”
<xs:complexType <xs:sequence> maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOccurs=”0” <xs:element maxOc- type=”Max140Text”/>
name=”RemittanceInformation11”> <xs:element name=”SttlmMtd” name=”Inf” type=”Max35Text”/> curs=”1” minOccurs=”0” name=”Tp” <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
<xs:sequence> type=”SettlementMethod1Code”/> </xs:sequence> type=”TaxAmountType1Choice”/> curs=”0” name=”Mtd” type=”Max35Text”/>
<xs:element <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” </xs:complexType> <xs:element name=”Amt” type=”Acti <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOccurs=”0” minOccurs=”0” name=”SttlmAcct” <xs:complexType name=”StructuredRemitt veOrHistoricCurrencyAndAmount”/> curs=”0” name=”TtlTaxblBaseAmt” type=”A
name=”Ustrd” type=”Max140Text”/> type=”CashAccount24”/> anceInformation13”> </xs:sequence> ctiveOrHistoricCurrencyAndAmount”/>
<xs:element <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- <xs:sequence> </xs:complexType> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOccurs=”0” curs=”0” name=”ClrSys” type=”ClearingSyst <xs:element <xs:complexType curs=”0” name=”TtlTaxAmt” type=”ActiveOr
name=”Strd” type=”StructuredRemittanceIn emIdentification3Choice”/> maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOccurs=”0” name=”TaxAmountType1Choice”> HistoricCurrencyAndAmount”/>
formation13”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- name=”RfrdDocInf” type=”ReferredDocume <xs:choice> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
</xs:sequence> curs=”0” name=”InstgRmbrsmntAgt” typ ntInformation7”/> <xs:element name=”Cd” type=”Exter curs=”0” name=”Dt” type=”ISODate”/>
</xs:complexType> e=”BranchAndFinancialInstitutionIdentific <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” nalTaxAmountType1Code”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
<xs:complexType ation5”/> minOccurs=”0” name=”RfrdDocAmt” <xs:element name=”Prtry” curs=”0” name=”SeqNb” type=”Number”/>
name=”RemittanceLocation4”> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- type=”RemittanceAmount2”/> type=”Max35Text”/> <xs:element
<xs:sequence> curs=”0” name=”InstgRmbrsmntAgtAcct” <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- </xs:choice> maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOccurs=”0”
<xs:element maxOccurs=”1” type=”CashAccount24”/> curs=”0” name=”CdtrRefInf” type=”Creditor </xs:complexType> name=”Rcrd” type=”TaxRecord1”/>
minOccurs=”0” name=”RmtId” <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- ReferenceInformation2”/> <xs:complexType </xs:sequence>
type=”Max35Text”/> curs=”0” name=”InstdRmbrsmntAgt” typ <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” name=”TaxAuthorisation1”> </xs:complexType>
<xs:element e=”BranchAndFinancialInstitutionIdentific minOccurs=”0” name=”Invcr” <xs:sequence> <xs:complexType name=”TaxParty1”>
maxOccurs=”unbounded” minOccurs=”0” ation5”/> type=”PartyIdentification43”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- <xs:sequence>
name=”RmtLctnDtls”View
type=”RemittanceLoc
publication stats <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” curs=”0” name=”Titl” type=”Max35Text”/> <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc-
ationDetails1”/> curs=”0” name=”InstdRmbrsmntAgtAcct” minOccurs=”0” name=”Invcee” <xs:element maxOccurs=”1” minOc- curs=”0” name=”TaxId” </xs:schema>