Copyeditor: Mary Grace Trillana

Tracking of Physical Activity from Early

Childhood through Youth into Adulthood
RISTO TELAMA1, XIAOLIN YANG2, ESKO LESKINEN3, ANNA KANKAANPÄÄ2, MIRJA HIRVENSALO1,
TUIJA TAMMELIN2, JORMA S. A. VIIKARI4, and OLLI T. RAITAKARI5
1
Department of Sport Sciences, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, FINLAND; 2LIKES–Research Center for Sport and Health
Sciences, Jyväskylä, FINLAND; 3Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, FINLAND;
4
Department of Medicine, University of Turku and Turku University Hospital, Turku, FINLAND; and 5Department of Clinical
Physiology, Turku University Hospital and Research Centre of Applied and Preventive Cardiovascular Medicine,
University of Turku, Turku, FINLAND

ABSTRACT
TELAMA, R., X. YANG, E. LESKINEN, A. KANKAANPÄÄ, M. HIRVENSALO, T. TAMMELIN, J. S. A. VIIKARI, and O. T.
RAITAKARI. Tracking of Physical Activity from Early Childhood through Youth into Adulthood. Med. Sci. Sports Exerc., Vol. 46,
No. 5, pp. 00–00, 2014. Purpose: The aim of the study was to investigate the tracking of physical activity (PA) from preschool age to
adulthood in six age cohorts of males and females. Methods: A random sample of 3596 boys and girls age 3–18 yr participated in
the Cardiovascular Risks in Young Finns Study in 1980. The follow-up measurements were repeated in 1986, 1992, 2001, and 2007.
The PA was measured by mother_s report in 3- and 6-yr-olds and self-report in 9-yr-olds and older. Tracking of PA was analyzed using
the Spearman rank-order correlation and a simplex model. Results: Mother-reported PA at age 3 and 6 yr significantly predicted self-
reported PA in youth and in young adulthood, and there was a significant indirect effect of mother report on adult PA 2007 in males.
Simplex models that fitted the data very well produced higher stability coefficients than the Spearman rank-order correlations showing
moderate or high tracking. The tracking was higher in males than that in females. Conclusion: This study has shown that physically
active lifestyle starts to develop very early in childhood and that the stability of PA is moderate or high along the life course from youth
to adulthood. Key Words: EXERCISE, CHILDHOOD, ADOLESCENCE, ADULTHOOD, SIMPLEX MODEL, AGE COHORTS

T
he promotion of lifelong physical activity (PA) and
healthy lifestyle is among the main aims of physical
education in many countries (25). Investment in phys-
ical education is based on the belief that PA in youth is ben-
eficial for young peoples_ health, and also becomes habitual
and tracks over time, and thus influences individual and pub-
lic health in the adult population. Many transitions and life-
changing events during the life course affect PA, and therefore,
the level of tracking of PA is likely to vary in different phases
of life. Thus, information about the tracking of PA may be
useful in planning interventions in different phases of life.
Tracking is usually defined as a tendency of individuals to
maintain their rank or position within a group over time (18).
Tracking also means the ability to predict subsequent values
Address for correspondence: Risto Telama, Ph.D., Department of Sport
Sciences, University of Jyväskylä, Keltavuokko 4 C, 40520, Jyväskylä,
Finland; E-mail: risto.r.telama@jyu.fi.
Submitted for publication June 2013.
Accepted for publication September 2013.
0195-9131/14/4605-0000/0
MEDICINE & SCIENCE IN SPORTS & EXERCISEÒ
Copyright Ó 2014 by the American College of Sports Medicine
DOI: 10.1249/MSS.0000000000000181
on the basis of earlier values (8). Here, the term stability is used
as parallel with tracking.
Interest in the tracking of PA has increased notably during
the past decade. Most tracking studies have been published
since the year 2000 (30). Despite the increase in tracking re-
search generally, little additional information about the long-
term stability of PA has been reported as the follow-up time
in most studies has been short (30). Even there are many studies
in which the follow-up time has been more than 20 yr, there
is, to our knowledge, no study where PA has been followed
from the age of 3 yr to adulthood (older than 27 yr). Also,
the many measurements between the baseline and the final
follow-up allowing to detect the level of tracking in different
phases of life are rare in previous studies.
Previous results have shown that, among men, PA has
significant but low or moderate stability during single life
phases, and also during longer periods of life. In women, the
level of tracking has been lower and in many studies non-
significant. PA stability seems to be lower in early childhood
than that in adolescence or in adulthood and lower in tran-
sitional phases, such as from childhood to adolescence or
from adolescence to adulthood, than that in adulthood (30).
In most tracking studies, self-report methods have been
applied, and the results have not usually been adjusted for
measurement errors or other error variance. Therefore, the real
stability of PA may be greater than indicated by unadjusted

Copyright @ 2014 by the American College of Sports Medicine. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.
 self-report results. This is supported by the higher correla- individually in connection with a medical examination. The
tions found in studies where PA has been measured using questions concerned the frequency and intensity of leisure-
objective methods (15,22,31). time PA, participation in sports club training, participation
The aim of this study was to investigate the tracking of in sport competitions, and habitual way of spending leisure
PA from preschool age to adulthood in six age cohorts. To time. The items were coded from 1 to 3 and summed to form
our knowledge, this is the first study which analyze PA a PAI with scores ranging from 5 to 15 (28). In 1992, 2001,
tracking in both genders and with many age cohorts during and 2007, the PA questionnaire consisted of items on the
the 27-yr follow-up period, and which covers tracking from frequency of PA, intensity of PA, frequency of vigorous PA,
preschool age to adulthood. hours spent on vigorous PA, average duration of a PA ses-
sion, and participation in organized PA (29,33). The PAI was
calculated in the same way as for the youth groups. Internal
MATERIALS AND METHODS consistency coefficients (>) as indicators of reliability varied
Subjects. Data were obtained from the Young Finns from 0.44 to 0.76 at baseline, the coefficients being lower in
Study that was launched in 1980 and was repeated in 1983, the younger cohorts than that in the older ones. In 2007, the
1986, 1989, 1992, 2001, and 2007 (26). Altogether, 4320 coefficients varied from 0.72 to 0.82. Reliability coefficients
children and adolescents age 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, and 18 yr were were also calculated by the simplex model (Table 3). The
randomly chosen from the population register of five uni- validity of the PAI was tested by showing statistically sig-
versity cities and their surroundings to produce a represen- nificant correlation with the indicators of exercise capacity
tative sample of Finnish children. Of these subjects, 3596 in a subsample (n = 102) (29) and an inverse correlation with
(83%) participated in the initial survey and were followed waist circumference in both genders (35). The convergent
until 2007. To keep the follow-up intervals as equal as validity of the PAI in 2007 was also shown by its correlation
possible for the simplex modeling (see Statistical analysis with pedometer step counts. The correlations were not high
section), only five measurements, 1980, 1986, 1992, 2001, in men (r = 0.26, P G 0.001) and women (r = 0.32, P G 0.001)
T1 and 2007, were selected for the present study (Table 1). The (13), but considering that the PAI was an overall estimate
study protocol was reviewed and approved by the ethics of the leisure-time and commuting activities, the pedometer
committee of each of the five participating univesities and counts were only a 1-wk sample of activity, and the pedom-
the subject_s informed conset was obtained (26). eter did not react to many usual Finnish activities such as
PA assessments. The PA of 3- and 6-yr-old children biking, swimming, skiing, fitness club, and so on, the corre-
was measured using mothers_ ratings. Mothers were asked lations would not be expected to be very high. In addition,
questions concerning their child_s outdoor play time (hIdj1) the predictive validity of the PAI in relation to health factors
in summer and in winter, the amount of PA in play as com- has been published previously (32,35). There were no sig-
pared with other children, the vigorousness of PA, the child_s nificant difference in the baseline PA between participants
enjoyment of indoor/outdoor play, the child_s general level and dropouts in 2001 (26,29).
of activity as compared with other children, the encourage- Statistical analysis. Spearman rank-order correlations
ment given to participate in sports, and the patterns of PA. (Spearman rho) between the PAI measured in subsequent
Each item was coded from 1 to 3, except for encouragement years were calculated and tested for significance. A simplex
to engage in sport (1–2). By summing the variables, a PA model was used to test the hypothesis that PA patterns re-
index (PAI) of preschool children was formed with scores main stable over time (i.e., PA of each measurement time
ranging from 8 to 23. depends on the PA of previous measurement time; Fig. 1). F1
The PA of 9- to 18-yr-old subjects in 1980 and 1986 was Simplex model was fitted separately for males and females
measured using a short self-report questionnaire administered in each cohort using self-rated PA for time interval from
1980 to 2007 in four oldest cohorts (Fig. 1A) and from 1986
to 2007 in 3- and 6-yr-old-cohorts (Fig. 1B).
TABLE 1. Numbers of participants at each cohort by gender, age and measurement year. Simplex modeling enables also measurement error (et)
Age (Cohort) to be distinguished from real change. It is possible to divide
in 1980 1980 1986 1992 2001 2007
the variance of the observed variables (PAIt) into measure-
Males
3 (1977) 296 240 207 182 168 ment error variance and the variance of latent (real) variables
6 (1974) 280 230 163 164 146 (pait) at the time of measurement (t). The stability coeffi-
9 (1971) 323 243 176 202 177
12 (1968) 322 181 161 187 165
cients (stabt) reflect the extent to which pait could be pre-
15 (1965) 287 149 135 194 171 dicted from paitj1, whereas the term Xt is a residual term (16).
18 (1962) 257 121 136 168 139 This means that it is also possible to evaluate the reliability
Females
3 (1977) 281 240 212 202 181 of each measurement and the correlations between the latent
6 (1974) 303 241 211 239 213 variables, which could then be interpreted as the coefficients
9 (1971) 323 244 208 222 197
12 (1968) 329 232 218 245 217
of the stability of the real variables.
15 (1965) 315 184 194 239 215 Moreover, the indirect stability coefficient for the 27-yr
18 (1962) 280 168 163 198 177 interval was calculated in four oldest cohorts using simplex

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Copyright @ 2014 by the American College of Sports Medicine. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.
FIGURE 1—The simplex model for PA in 9-, 12-, 15- and 18-yr-old cohorts (A) and in 3- and 6-yr-old cohorts (B). PAIt, observed PA; pait, true PA; et,
measurement error; X t, random residual; stabt, the coefficient of stability; relt, the coefficient of reliability on occasion t; A, regression coefficient.

model. The indirect stability coefficient is the correlation
between the latent variables in the first and the last occasion.
The corresponding Spearman rank-order correlation for the
27-yr interval was calculated and tested for significance.
The indirect effects of latent PA in 1980 on latent PA in
2007 mediated through years 1986, 1992, and 2001 were
estimated and tested using simplex models in the four oldest
cohorts. The indirect effect or the mediated effect between
the first and the last occasion would be equal to the product of
the direct effects.
Because the measure of PA among 3- and 6-yr-olds in
1980 was different from other years, the indirect effect in
two youngest cohorts was calculated so that latent PA in 1986
was predicted by mother-rated PA in 1980, and from 1986,
the model was applied as in other cohorts. The indirect effect
of mother-rated PA on the latent PA in 2007 through the mea-
surements was estimated and tested for significance.
To evaluate the goodness of fit of the models, the W2 test,
the comparative fit index (CFI), the Tucker–Lewis index
(TLI), the standardized root mean square residual (SRMR),
and the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA)
were used. A model fitted the data well when the P value
associated with the W2 test was nonsignificant. CFI and TLI
values close to 0.95, SRMR values lower than 0.08, and
RMSEA values lower than 0.06 indicated a good fit between
the hypothesized model and the observed data (14).
In addition, a more parsimonious model, in which the direct
effects (unstandardized regression coefficients between adja-
cent latent variables) were constrained to be equal, was esti-
mated. The W2-difference test was conducted for the nested
models. If the restricted model was not rejected in favor of
the less-restricted model, the estimation results of the more
parsimonious model were reported. To end up with an
identifiable model, the measurement error variances of the
observed PAI in the first and second occasion were esti-
mated as equal; similarly, the measurement error variances
of the observed PAI in last two occasions were estimated
as equal. Furthermore, when the model gave negative or
nonsignificant residual variances of the latent PAI or mea-
surement error variances, these parameters were fixed to be
close to zero (0.01).
The analyses were performed by using the IBM Statis-
tical Package for the Social Sciences version 19.0 (IBM,
Armonk, NY) and the Mplus statistical package version 6.1
(Muthén & Muthén, Los Angeles, CA). The standard MAR
approach (missing at random) using the full-information

TRACKING PHYSICAL ACTIVITY Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercised 3

Copyright @ 2014 by the American College of Sports Medicine. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.
 TABLE 2. PAI by sex, age, and measurement year.
Age in 1980 1980a 1986 1992b 2001 2007
Males
3 15.9 T 2.4 9.8 T 1.6 10.5 T 2.4 10.5 T 2.7 9.0 T 2.1
6 18.1 T 2.3 10.1 T 1.8 10.2 T 2.3 9.8 T 2.4 9.0 T 1.8
9 9.9 T 1.6 9.3 T 2.1 10.1 T 2.5 10.1 T 2.6 9.1 T 1.9
12 9.9 T 1.7 8.5 T 2.2 9.6 T 2.3 9.6 T 2.5 8.9 T 1.8
15 9.2 T 2.0 8.5 T 2.4 9.7 T 2.1 9.6 T 2.4 9.0 T 1.8
18 9.9 T 2.2 8.4 T 2.4 9.3 T 2.2 9.5 T 2.4 9.0 T 1.9
Females
3 15.1 T 2.5 8.9 T 1.4 9.8 T 2.1 10.3 T 2.3 9.4 T 1.5
6 16.8 T 2.5 9.0 T 1.6 9.5 T 2.1 10.1 T 2.1 9.3 T 1.6
9 9.1 T 1.5 8.5 T 1.8 9.3 T 1.8 9.9 T 2.5 9.1 T 1.7
12 9.9 T 1.7 8.3 T 2.0 9.4 T 1.8 9.9 T 2.1 9.1 T 1.7
15 8.3 T 1.6 8.2 T 1.9 9.1 T 1.7 9.6 T 2.2 9.1 T 1.6
18 8.0 T 1.5 7.9 T 1.7 8.9 T 1.7 9.7 T 2.2 9.2 T 1.5
Data are presented as mean T (SD).
a
In 3- and 6-yr-old cohorts, the PAI values in 1980 (mother-rated PA) differed from the PAI values in sequential years (self-rated PA).
b
The PAI values in1992 and later differed little from the PAI values in previous years.

maximum likelihood estimation was applied to simplex the age of 18 yr in each cohort of males. Among females,
modeling (21). there was similar but not as clear increasing trend in the sta-
bility with age. From 2001 to 2007, the stability coefficients
were probably very high in the cohorts of 9-, 12-, and 15-yr-old
RESULTS males and 18-yr-old females. The overestimated coefficient
T2 Mean and SD for the PAI are presented in Table 2. The was partly due to the fact that the residual variances in 2007
PAI for ages 3 and 6 yr could not be evaluated because of were fixed to be near zero. However, the Spearman correla-
the differences between mother report and self-report. Also, tions between the PAI were significant in all age-sex groups.
the PAI in 1992, 2001, and 2007 differed little from those In particular, the correlations were remarkably well with its
in 1980 and 1986. In the cohorts of 9- to 18-yr-olds, the PAI highest level in most of the age-gender groups within the last
declined clearly from 1980 to 1986, particularly in males. 6-yr interval ranging from 0.49 to 0.61 in males and from
These changes ware small from 1992 to 2001 and for females 0.36 to 0.50 in females.
even upward, but the PAI declined and remained relatively The indirect stability coefficient of PA between 1980 and
low from 2001 to 2007. 2007 ranged from 0.28 to 0.44 in males and from 0.08 to
The more parsimonious simplex model with the equal re- 0.45 in females. Among boys, for instance, at age 18 yr, the
gression coefficients was confirmed in every cohort of boys latent variable explained 9% of the variance of the latent var-
and girls. The simplex model seemed to fit the data rea- iable at age 45 yr. Among 18-yr-old girls, the corresponding
sonably well. The W2-test was nonsignificant in all age-sex proportion was 20%. The coefficients of stability were also
groups, except for the cohort of 9-yr-old boys and 15-yr-old higher than the Spearman correlations within the 27-yr
girls. CFI was higher than 0.95 for all models and TLI was interval for all age-groups in both genders, except the 9-yr-
0.94 or higher, except for the cohort of 15-yr-old girls. SRMR old boys and girls.
ranged from 0.03 to 0.09 and RMSEA from 0 to 0.07 for Mother-rated PA in 1980 predicted latent PA in 1986 in 3-
all models (data not shown). and 6-yr-old boys (unstandardized regression coefficients
The reliability coefficients of all the measurements cal- b = 0.20, P G 0.001, R2 = 0.08 and b = 0.24, P G 0.001,
T3 culated by the simplex model are presented in Table 3. The
coefficients of 3- and 6-yr-old kids in 1980 were omitted
because of the use of different PA scale. The coefficients TABLE 3. Estimated coefficients of reliability (simplex) of PA.
of reliability were very high in the two youngest age-sex Age in 1980 1980a 1986 1992 2001 2007
groups with one exception in 1986. These coefficients prob- Males
ably were overestimated because of measurement error vari- 3 — 0.99 0.65 0.77 0.72
ances fixed to be close to zero. The ‘‘real’’ or true values for 6 — 0.79 0.87 0.77 0.65
9 0.64 0.80 0.76 0.66 0.54
the age-sex groups would be close to the more realistic esti- 12 0.52 0.68 0.68 0.63 0.49
mates of reliability in other birth cohorts at the same age 15 0.59 0.70 0.61 0.59 0.49
(0.41–0.64). 18 0.79 0.81 0.63 0.63 0.55
Females
The coefficients of stability in which measurement error 3 — 0.99 0.97 0.77 0.72
had been taken into account were higher than the traditional 6 — 0.99 0.72 0.73 0.70
Spearman rank-order correlations within the 6-yr interval for 9 0.47 0.67 0.93 0.74 0.63
12 0.41 0.55 0.60 0.47 0.44
T4 all age-groups in both sexes (Table 4). Among males, there 15 0.86 0.90 0.26 0.63 0.45
was a steadily increasing trend in the stability with age. The 18 0.68 0.64 0.59 0.53 0.41
stability coefficients were consistently 0.60 or higher after a
In 1980 the simplex model was fitted only for self-rated PA.

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Copyright @ 2014 by the American College of Sports Medicine. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.
 TABLE 4. Estimated direct and indirect coefficients of simplex stability and Spearman rank-order correlations (Spearman rho) of PA.
Age (in 1980) 1980I1986 1986I1992 1992I2001 2001I2007 1980I2007a
Males
Simplex stabilityb
3 — 0.56 0.58 0.92 —
6 — 0.51 0.67 0.87 —
9 0.53 0.68 0.82 0.998 0.29
12 0.54 0.68 0.76 0.998 0.28
15 0.64 0.88 0.79 0.997 0.44
18 0.67 0.79 0.68 0.83 0.30
Spearman rhoc
3 0.38** 0.45** 0.38** 0.60** 0.07
6 0.30** 0.47** 0.60** 0.61** 0.09
9 0.34** 0.48** 0.58** 0.56** 0.32**
12 0.34** 0.41** 0.52** 0.50** 0.14
15 0.31** 0.54** 0.51** 0.55** 0.28**
18 0.53** 0.54** 0.38** 0.49** 0.14
Females
Simplex stability
3 — 0.30 0.45 0.63 —
6 — 0.48 0.51 0.55 —
9 0.40 0.50 0.49 0.77 0.08
12 0.62 0.84 0.80 0.87 0.36
15 0.56 0.72 0.69 0.92 0.25
18 0.71 0.54 0.52 0.99 0.45
Spearman rho
3 0.26** 0.29** 0.29** 0.36** 0.07
6 0.13* 0.34** 0.35** 0.42** 0.11
9 0.17* 0.34** 0.45** 0.50** 0.11
12 0.26** 0.48** 0.45** 0.39** 0.18**
15 0.35** 0.32** 0.26* 0.46** 0.17
18 0.45** 0.35** 0.37** 0.44** 0.19**
a
Indirect stability coefficients.
b
The simplex model was fitted only for self-reports of PA.
c
The correlations between 1980 and 1986 and between 1980 and 2007 in 3- and 6-yr-old cohorts were measured using mothers_ reports and self-reports of PA.
*P G 0.05, **P G 0.01 (two-tailed).

R2 = 0.11, respectively) and in 3-yr-old girls (unstandardized
regression coefficient b = 0.13, P G 0.001, R2 = 0.05), but
not in 6-yr-old girls (b = 0.07, P = 0.12, R2 = 0.01). More-
over, mother-rated PA of 3- and 6-yr-old boys in 1980 indi-
rectly predicted the PA in adulthood (in 2007) via the PA in
T5 childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood (Table 5). In
four oldest cohorts, unstandardized estimates of the indirect
effects of latent PA between the first and the last occasion
ranged from 0.25 to 0.43 in males and from 0.12 to 0.45 in
females. The highest estimate was observed for 15-yr-old
boys and 12-yr-old girls. The indirect effects of latent PA
TABLE 5. Unstandardized estimates of indirect effects: the effect of mother-rated PA
(3- and 6-yr-olds) and latent self-rated PA (9-, 12-, 15-, and 18-yr-olds) in 1980 on
latent PA in 2007 mediated via latent PA in 1986, 1992, and 2001.
Age in 1980 Estimate of Indirect Effect T SE
Males 3 0.06
6 0.06
9 0.37
12 0.32
15 0.43
18 0.25
Females 3 0.007
6 0.009
9 0.12
12 0.45
15 0.20
18 0.37
*P G 0.05, **P G 0.01 (two-tailed).
were significant in all age-groups of males and in 12- and
18-yr-old females.
To study the stability of activity (high activity) versus in-
activity (low activity), the subjects (four older cohorts) were
divided into tertiles according to the PAI in 1980, 1992, and
2007. The percentages of those remaining in the same tertile
from 1980 to 2007 were slightly higher in the activity than
the inactivity groups in males (46.7% vs 41.4%) and females
(41.5% vs 36.9%). During the period 1980–1992, the activity
group was more stable than the inactivity group in both males
(45.4% vs 32.9%) and females (45.6% vs 32.6%). Later in
adulthood, from 1992 to 2007, no stability difference was ob-
served between the activity and the inactivity groups in fe-
males, whereas in males, the inactivity group showed slightly
higher stability (62.2%) than the activity group (51.9%) (data
not shown).
T 0.02**
T 0.02**
DISCUSSION
T 0.10**
T 0.11** This study investigated how PA tracks from early child-
T 0.13** hood to adulthood in six birth cohorts of men and women.
T 0.10*
T 0.004
To our knowledge, this is the first PA tracking study to follow
T 0.006 several cohorts starting from preschool age and continuing
T 0.08 for 27 yr. The main result was that the 6-yr integrated PA
T 0.16*
T 0.13 stability coefficients adjusted for measurement errors were
T 0.12** moderate or high in youth and high in adulthood. The long-term
direct and indirect effects of PA in 1980 on the PA in 2007

TRACKING PHYSICAL ACTIVITY Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercised 5

Copyright @ 2014 by the American College of Sports Medicine. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.
were significant but low in all cohorts of males and in two
cohorts of females. The indirect effect of mother-rated PA of
the 3- and 6-yr-old children on the adult PA 27 yr later was
significant but weak in males but not in females.
In many studies where the subjects have been followed
for more than 20 yr from a young age to adulthood, the tracking
correlations have been nonsignificant or very low (3,10,12,
19,24). In the present study, the coefficients of stability from
1980 to 2007 (0.25–0.45), in which the measurement error
has been taken into account, were higher than previously
reported tracking correlations, except the value of 0.08 found
in the birth cohort of 9-yr-old girls. The tracking correlations
in adulthood (18–45 yr) were similar (0.14–0.19) to those of
previous studies on long-term tracking in adults (10,17,24).
Our stability coefficients in adulthood (0.30–0.45) resemble
those found in a recent study with a similar follow-up time
(20). The variation in tracking correlations between countries
may mean that there are cross-cultural differences in the
tracking of PA. It seems that in Nordic countries where also
the level of PA is rather high also the stability of PA is higher
than that in many other countries.
The tracking of PA during and from preschool age has been
studied using both objective methods and ratings by mothers.
The latter have produced both significant (11) and nonsig-
nificant results (23) across a short interval. In our study, the
tracking correlations for mother-rated PA of 3-yr-olds were
0.52 for boys and 0.61 for girls, with subsequent measure-
ments at 3-yr intervals, indicating good test–retest reliability
for the mothers_ ratings (data not shown). This is in the line
with a recent review (15), which reported moderate to high
tracking correlations of objectively measured PA among very
young children. The findings that mother-rated PA at age 3 yr
significantly predicted self-rated PA at age 15 yr in boys and
at age 24 yr in girls (data not shown), show rather good pre-
dictive validity for the mothers_ ratings. This was supported by
the fact that the indirect effect between mother-reported PA in
1980 and PA 2007 was significant in 3-yr-old and 6-yr-old
boys_ cohorts. This suggests that the habitual pattern of PA
starts to develop very early during preschool age and also that
mothers are aware of their children_s PA and are capable to
evaluate it. Maternal observations for birth weight, age of
walking, and other simple indicators of children_s develop-
ment are often routinely used in studies. Our results show that
mothers are able to report much more complicated informa-
tion about their children and their daily life, for example,
children_s PA in indoor and outdoor play and in other daily
activities. Mothers_ insight to children_s activities could per-
haps be better used for research.
Earlier studies have reported rather little variation by age
in tracking correlations or stability coefficients (20,30).
However, in this study, the interage correlations and sta-
bility coefficients from age 9 to 12 yr are lower than those
from age 18 to 21 yr, indicating that PA is less stable
in childhood and early adolescence than that in adulthood
(as shown in Table 4), as has also been found to a certain
extent in some earlier studies (30). The age differences in
6 Official Journal of the American College of Sports Medicine
Copyright @ 2014 by the American College of Sports Medicine. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.
the stability coefficients are smaller than the differences in
the correlations because the stability coefficients have been
corrected for reliability, which is lower in the younger groups
than older groups.
The gender effect on the tracking of PA was apparent in
all phases of the life course, and also in the long term, males
showed greater stability than females. This has also been
found in some previous studies (4,31), but not consistently.
A recent study found a significant 10-yr tracking among
girls but not in boys (9). It is difficult to see any clear reason
for the gender difference in the tracking of PA. In general,
gender difference in the level of PA is small or nonexistent in
Finland (5). It is possible that some kind of gender inequity
exists in the capacity of females to maintain their PA level
during major transitions and life changes. This is supported
by findings that many life changes, such as getting married or
having small children in the family, have a greater influence
on the PA of women than that of men (1,34). Some recent
studies have found that among young people, the gender
differences are smaller if the biological age instead of chro-
nological age is taken into account, and also the differences
in the tracking of PA are smaller (7,9).
PA has usually been tracked through coefficients, for
example, ranking correlations, showing to what extent in-
dividuals maintain the same position in the activity distri-
bution. From the point of view of physical education and
public health, an important question is how far active people
stay active and inactive people stay inactive. As stated by
Corbin (6), more attention should be paid to the tracking of
inactivity. Our results indicated that activity tracks slightly
better than inactivity in the younger phases of life (1980–
1992), unlike the results of previous studies where inactivity
seems to track better than activity (2,19,27). However, in our
study, the stability of inactivity was slightly higher than the
stability of activity in males in later adulthood (1992–2007),
which is in line with previous results. The difference be-
tween the tracking of activity and that of inactivity was small
in our study, and it has also been small in previous studies.
To draw valid conclusions on this issue, more research is
called for on the stability of high PA and of low activity or
inactivity at different life phases.
An important question related to tracking of activity or
inactivity is what in general causes tracking and what kinds
of determinants regulate tracking. There is very little re-
search based information about this issue. Our results show
that the level of tracking is related to age and gender. In
particular, the stability of youth was lower than that of
adulthood, which may be related to the decreasing level of
PA, indicating that some people decrease more than others.
One explanation for this may be that young people who
participate regularly in organized sport may keep a part of
their physically active longer than those who do not. How-
ever, it is important to emphasize that the tracking and
changes of PA level are different issues. In our data, the
low stability was related to the chance of activity in youth
but in adulthood the relationship was different. From 2001
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to 2007, the level of PA decreased clearly but the stability
coefficients were high. It is also noteworthy that tracking
results of PA are reported especially when accompanied
with its changes.
Although objective instruments for measuring PA are
being increasingly used, most long-term PA tracking studies
are based on self-reports. As objective measures of PA be-
come more widespread, it will be possible to study the track-
ing of PA in a more reliable and valid way. At present, the
comparison of the results of objective measurements and self-
reports allows us to believe that PA is more stable than is
indicated by the unadjusted results from self-report studies.
Measurement errors in self-report studies cause lower tracking
correlations and thus give lower stability values than is in fact
the case. The use of simplex models is one way to take mea-
surement error into account and estimate of the ‘‘true’’ stability
of PA. The simplex model, and our unique design with
several measurements, also made it possible to calculate the
indirect effect of base line PA through the measurements
1986, 1992, and 2001 on the PA in 2007, which, in case of
3- and 6-yr-old boys, gave a really important result showing
the connection between the preschool age PA and the adult
PA in males.
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Copyright @ 2014 by the American College of Sports Medicine. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.
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