COORDINATING MINISTRY FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS

REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

Indonesia’s Economic Recovery

from COVID-19

Gen. Army (Purn.) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan

Coordinating Minister for Maritime and Investment Affairs
Republic of Indonesia

May 2020
 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS In The Past 16 Years, There Are 4 New Infectious Diseases
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

H7N9: Total case 1565 COVID-19 COVID-19: 5 May 2020,

total of 3,435,894 cases
(CDC,2017) 2019
and 239,604 death
2009-2010

A(H1N1)pdm09

H7N9

MERS-CoV
MERS-CoV: Total cases 2,494
A(H1N1)pdm09: Total cases 2012-continue this day million and 858 death (CFR
60.8 million and 17,798 death 34.4%) (WHO,2019)

Figure Source : Emerging & Re-Emerging Infectious Disease Challenges. Nature 430: 242-49 (Morenz. DM et al, 2004)

IN 16 YEARS THERE ARE 4 NEW INFECTIOUS DISEASES:

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A(H1N1)PDM09, H7N9, MERS-COV, COVID-19
 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS
The Curve is Flattening, But Following Waves Are Likely in
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA The Winter

Possible Scenarios

Curve starting to flatten in a lot of countries. However, there are

new hotspots and researches showing plausible following
waves.
3
Source: FT, CIDRAP
 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS
Indonesia Case Still Increasing, However Recovery Rate Is
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Increasing

• Daily case growth keeps declining. Since 25th April, daily new cases are around 214-455, despite of the
increase of average daily tests to 5,800 from < 2,000 in the previous weeks.
• Per May 3rd Case touches 11,192 patients, with fatality rate at 7.6% and recovery rate 16,8%

Confirmed Cases (LHS) Daily changes (RHS) Daily Infection Rate Recovery Rate Fatality Rate
12,000 500 30%
450
10,000 25%
400
8,000 350 20%
16.8%
300
6,000 250 15%
11.1%
200
4,000 10%
150
2,000 100 5% 7.6%
50
0 0 0%
2-Apr
4-Apr
6-Apr
8-Apr
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
31-Mar

10-Apr
12-Apr
14-Apr
16-Apr
18-Apr
20-Apr
22-Apr
24-Apr
26-Apr
28-Apr
30-Apr
2-May
1-Mar
3-Mar
5-Mar
7-Mar
9-Mar

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 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS
Indonesia Has Increased Its Testing Capacity to 5,800
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Speciment Tests Per Day

Daily Testing Capacity 22nd April – 3rd May 2020

8,000 7,706
7,367
7,000
5,849
6,000
5,362
5,022
Specimen Tested

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

-
22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 30-Apr 1-May 2-May 3-May
Daily test Daily test - 7DMA 5
 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS Global Economy Will Experience Deep Contraction In 2020
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

Projected global economic

growth in 2020 will be
contracted. The level of high
uncertainty show that there is
the downside of the projection.

Several institutions indicate the

divergence in the middle of
uncertainty for Indonesian
Economic

Wide range of economic

recession will affect Indonesia’s
main trading partners

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 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS Trade Off: Costly Lockdown vs Unsafe ‘Do Nothing’
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

Without vaccine, strict lockdown is the only way to significantly reduce death toll. However, prolonged lockdown
induce costs such as: economic shrinkage, unemployment, disruption in supply chain.

• From the graph, distance

}
between doing nothing (1) and
limited normalization (3) is
significantly lower compared to

}
(2) and (3)

• In general, vaccine need decades

to be distributed to the general
public. Even with fast track, it
will need at least 1 year.

A sustainable exit strategy would

minimize risk to public health
7
Source: Tony Blair Institute
 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS COVID-19 Focus at this Moment
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

Curative Preventive & Promotive

Rp.

Expensive, Technology Intensive, Cost effective, Efficient, and

and Fast Continues
Source: https://kemenkeu.go.id/covid19
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 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS
Government Set Regulation To Change People Behavior in
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Improving Health Resilience

Individual and Collective

Discipline to Change
Behavior
PSBB will succeed if 70% of
A Public Health people apply preventive Increase in Public
practices
Emergency Health Resilience

Virus spreads through

cough, sneeze droplets
into mouth, nose, and
eyes mucus Practices to Prevent Spread

1 2 3

Physical Washing hands & Use Mask

Distancing maintain sanitary
practices
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COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS Habit of Wearing Mask Will Reduce Transmission Rate
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

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 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS
COVID-19 Accelerates Autonomy in Indonesia Health
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Sector

Domestic
Production
A Public Health Crisis Drug, Vaccine, Reagents, Increase in Public
Diagnostic Kit, PPE, Health Resilience
Medical Devices

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 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS
European Countries Start To Annouce Re-Opening Their
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Economy

Besides European countries, other countries such as VietNam and US also announce exit from lockdown. For the case of
US, each state may exit on their own timeline. 12
Source: Tony Blair Institute
 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS Germany Opens After Peak, but Not Fully Zero Case
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

Lockdown Number of Daily New Case: Germany

• Starts: 17 Mar
• Ends (gradual opening):20 Apr 8,000
7,324 lockdown
lockdown
• Duration: 34 days 7,000 starts
ends

6,000
Exit: 5,000
• Announcement: 15 April
4,000
• Statistics during announcement:
o Tests: 1,7mn (21th/mn people) 3,000
o Cases: 128k (Infection rate: 7,4%)
2,000
o Death: 3,2k (CFR:2,6%)
• Opening requirement: 1,000
o Health protocol (mask, physical distance
stay intact 0

4-Apr
8-Apr
12-Feb
16-Feb
20-Feb
24-Feb
28-Feb

11-Mar
15-Mar
19-Mar
23-Mar
27-Mar
31-Mar
4-Feb
8-Feb

12-Apr
16-Apr
20-Apr
24-Apr
3-Mar
7-Mar
27-Jan
o R0 below 1.1 (with this level of R0, ICU 31-Jan
will have full capacity in October)

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 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS Establishing a Sustainable Exit Strategy
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

BEFORE EXIT
• Have necessary pre condition: massive testing & tracing and centralized quarantine.
• Exit decision is not based on a predetermined set date, but based on measurable threshold indicators (e.g. reduce
in new case, reduce in PDP, reduce in infection rate, increase in recovery rate).

EXIT STRATEGY

• Open in 3 phases, every region (province, regency) is treated differently according to its pandemic curve stage.
• Ensure that habit and health protocol that had been applied during PSBB is maintained (e.g. using physical
distancing, hand washing).
• Coordinate with local government to ensure readiness of their region and maintain a good and clear
communication with local people.

REVIEW OF STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION

Exit strategy has to be reviewed periodically. If case began to increase with previous rate, or people ignore health
protocol, PSBB/lockdown will be applied again.

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 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS The Difference in Stages Must be Taken into Account
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

This position can change at

From the increase in infection
and active case, in 4 general Central West any moment, depending on
Java Java new case, fatality, and
phases in pandemic, Indonesia
recovery at each province.
is estimated to be at “control Jakarta
stage”, marked by DKI Jakarta, This show variety in provinces
West Java, East Java, South South in Indonesia, whose policy
Sulawesi, Banten, and Central Sulawesi needs to be tailored
Kalimantan. according to different socio-
cultural aspect from the local
Other provinces are not yet in population.
a situation where the increase East Java Local government needs to be
in cases mark a new conjecture creative in giving sense of
of pandemic control. security but also needs to be
Banten alert with physical distancing
in each province.

Outbreak Control Stationary Flattening

Stage Stage Stage
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 COORDINATING MINISTRY
FOR MARITIME AND INVESTMENT AFFAIRS Conclusion
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

1. Daily new case growth is declining with new cases below 400 cases per day, despite of significant increase in testing
capacity.
2. Data points indicate that some of the cities in Indonesia is in the Control stage: Central Kalimantan, Central Java, West
Java, Jakarta.
3. Meanwhile, cities such South Sulawesi, East Java, and Banten is going toward Flattening Stage.
4. There are cities that we would like to prevent to enter Controlling Stage, such as Bali.
5. Hence, cooperation between the Government and the People to conduct health protocol will greatly increase health
resilience and reduce the infection rate.
6. Exit strategy needs to be implemented carefully in stages, with meticulous periodical review. Health protocol will be
maintained.

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Thank you