ASEAN CEMENT

MARKETS

Cemtech, Bangkok 2015

“wilkes12246@hotmail.com”
Martin Wilkes
wilkes12246@hotmail.com
 Scope of Presentation
• How does the Asean cement Industry compare with the
rest of the world

• What is Asean and how has the cement industry in Asean

countries evolved since the financial crisis of 1997/8

• What is the recent cement performance of the Asean

countries and expectations for the next 3 years

• Activities of new & existing regional players and impact of

the Holcim/Lafarge merger
 Global Cement Markets

7%
6%
12%

60%
15%

China Rest of Asia Africa, Aust & M.East Europe US/Canada/S.America

 ASIA Cement Markets
1997
4% 6%
12%
10%

60%
19%

80%
9%

China South Asia North Asia South East Asia

China South Asia North Asia South East Asia
 JAPAN
CHINA KOREA

PAKISTAN
TAIWAN
INDIA
BANGLADESH HONG KONG
MYANMAR
LAOS
THAILAND
CAMBODIA
PHILIPPINES
VIETNAM

MALAYSIA BRUNEII
SINGAPORE

INDONESIA
CONSUMPTION
(Million Tonnes)
%
1997 2014
INCREASE

NORTH ASIA 160 116 (73)

SOUTH-EAST ASIA
105 200 190
(ASEAN)

SOUTH ASIA 78 304 390

CHINA 515 2,464 478

TOTAL 858 3,084 359

Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean)

Formed 1967
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Aims
Economic growth, Social progress Cultural development
Protection of peace and stability Non – interference
Expanded (1995-99)
Brunei Myanmar Cambodia Laos Vietnam
Population
Approx 625 m (9% of world)
• Set up procedures for ASEAN Free
Trade Area in 1992 and has followed
with trade agreements with other nations
and trading blocks
• Ranked as 8th largest world economy
with GDP of $ 2.2 trillion
• Asean Economic Community at end
2015 - Free flow of goods & services,
investments, skilled labour and capital
with a single market and production base
 ASEAN Cement Market

ASEAN Cement Markets represent

around 5% of the world market,
similar to Africa or Latin America.
The following slides indicate the
situation in each country and the
performance and expectations in
the four main the Asean countries
Population: 51.4m Population: 6.6
Cement Capacity: Cement Capacity: Population: 101.6m
5.5 mt Population: 92.6m 2.8 mt Cement Capacity:
Consumption: Cement Capacity: Consumption: 28.4 mt
8 mt 73.5 mt 3.4 mt Consumption:
Per cap: 155 kg Consumption: Per cap: 515 kg 21.3 mt
50.5 mt Per cap: 210 kg
Per cap: 546 kg
Population: 65.2m
Cement Capacity:
56.4 mt
Consumption:
29.8 mt
Per cap: 457 kg

Population: 5.6m
Cement Capacity:
0.3 mt
Consumption:
5.8 mt
Per cap: 1,044 kg

Population: 251.5m
Cement Capacity:
67.1 mt
Consumption:
60 mt
Per cap: 238 kg Population: 15.6m Population: 30m Population: 0.453m
Cement Capacity: Cement Capacity: Cement Capacity:
Imports 2.0 mt 33.0 mt 0.5 mt (grinding)
Consumption: Consumption: Consumption:
Exports 3.2 mt 20.8 mt 0.360 mt
Imports & exports Per cap: 205 kg Per cap: 692 kg Per cap: 795 kg
Per capita consumption against GDP
900 • China Singapore
. Korea
800
700 . Malaysia

600 • Switzerland
• Turkey
• Vietnam
500
• Australia
. Thailand
• Spain
400
Germany
• France • Netherlands
300
• Brazil
• Indonesia • Chile • Canada • Sweden
• USA
200 •Philippines
• S. Africa
. Myanmar • Colombia • UK
• Venezuela
100
0
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000

GDP per capita

Consumption/capita (kg)
 Cement Industry Consumption (‘000)
200,000

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000
Consumption

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

-
1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year
INDONESIA MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES THAILAND VIETNAM SINGAPORE
 2014 Capacities and 2012-2014 Consumption
(‘000)
80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

-
INDONESIA PHILIPPINES THAILAND VIETNAM
Capacity Clinker Capacity Cement Consumption 2012 Consumption 2013 Consumption 2014
 2017 Capacities and 2015-2017 Consumption
(‘000)
100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

-
INDONESIA PHILIPPINES THAILAND VIETNAM
Capacity 2017 Clinker Capacity 2017 Cement Consumption 2015 Consumption 2016 Consumption 2017
SUPPLY/DEMAND ESTIMATE IN ASEAN
(Million Tonnes)

2015 2016 2017

CAPACITY 305 315 325

(Excluding non-integrated grinding plants)

EFFECTIVE PRODUCTION
260 268 277
CAPACITY @ 85%

CONSUMPTION 220 230 242

EXCESS 40 38 35

? INDONESIA AND VIETNAM

EXPORTS & IMPORTS IN ASEAN
(Million Tonnes)
2012 2013 2014

EXPORTS 18.6 26.2 31.2

Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh

Indonesia Myanmar Myanmar
TO MAIN COUNTRIES Myanmar Cambodia Cambodia
Cambodia Singapore Singapore
Togo Indonesia Indonesia

IMPORTS 15.2 16.5 14.5

Singapore Singapore Singapore

Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia
TO MAIN COUNTRIES Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia
Philippines Philippines Philippines
Cambodia Myanmar Myanmar

? IMPORTS FROM OUTSIDE ASEAN

Major import & export countries 2014

Source – HC Trading
Source – Portland Cement Association
 New players & acquisitions in Asean
COUNTRY COMPANY CAPACITY COMMENTS

Siam Cement 1.8 MT

Conch (China) 1.5 MT
INDONESIA Pan Asia 1.8 MT Possible 4 plants by Conch
Wilmar (Singapore) 4.0 MT
Other?

CAMBODIA Siam Cement 1.0 MT 2015

LAOS Siam Cement 1.8 MT 2017

VIETNAM Semen Indonesia 2.3 MT Thang Long in 2012

Terminal only from
SINGAPORE YTL (Malaysia)
Sin Heng Chan
Conch 1.6 MT 2017
MYANMAR Siam Cement 1.8 MT 2016
Semen Indonesia?
Hume Cement 1.6MT 2012
MALAYSIA
Other?
 Holcim/Lafarge merger
COUNTRY COMPANY CAPACITY COMMENTS

LAFARGE 7.6 MT
MALAYSIA Holcim grinding plant only
HOLCIM 1.1 MT

HOLCIM 11.0 MT
INDONESIA Assumed to be merged
LAFARGE 1.6 MT

THAILAND HOLCIM 14.8 MT To be sold to local partner

LAFARGE 10.5 MT
PHILIPPINES Part to be sold to CRH
HOLCIM 8.6 MT

HOLCIM Assumed to be merged

VIETNAM 2.7 MT
LAFARGE Lafarge only grinding plant

LAFARGE
SINGAPORE Terminals only
HOLCIM

MYANMAR LAFARGE Terminal only

THANK YOU