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• CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY
• Clinical epidemiology is the application of
epidemiological principles and methods to the
practice of clinical medicine.
• Clinical epidemiology is concerned with:
• • definitions of normality and abnormality
•
• • accuracy of diagnostic tests
•
• • natural history and prognosis
•
• • effectiveness of treatment and prevention.
•
•
DEFINITIONS OF NORMALITY
AND ABNORMALITY
• Normal as common
• Abnormal as associated with disease
• Abnormal as treatable
Diagnosis vs testing
• Diagnosis
– assemble a list of diseases to consider
– choose appropriate tests (and the order in which
to do them)
– interpret the results
Diagnosis vs testing
• Is a subject (individual, group, region, country)
– … diseased (abnormal, affected)
– … not diseased (normal, unaffected)?
• The testing process is imperfect
– clarity of case definition (what is positive, what is
negative)
– quality of measurement tools
Diagnosis vs testing
• Applications of testing in epidemiology
– establish level of disease in a population
(prevalence estimation)
– risk‐factor studies
– monitoring, screening and surveillance
• tuberculosis
• BSE surveillance [European Union]
• breast cancer
• cervical cancer
• prostate cancer
Diagnosis vs testing
– Testing
– assumes that a particular disease is being considered
and that a particular test has been chosen
– more limited than the process of making a diagnosis,
and only a partial depiction of the complexity of
clinical reality
– … clinical examination is far more powerful than
laboratory evaluation in establishing diagnosis,
prognosis, and therapeutic plan for most patients in
most places … (Sackett)
Diagnosis vs testing
• The ideal diagnostic test
– always gives the right answer
– quick,
– safe,
– simple,
– painless,
– reliable,
– inexpensive
• What is a test?
• any device that reduces uncertainty about the
state of disease
• any process to detect a sign, substance, tissue
change or response
• must be better than random
• includes routine examination questions posed
during history taking, clinical signs, laboratory
findings(hematology, serology, biochemistry,
histopathology), post mortem findings
DIAGNOSTIC TESTS
• Of major concern is the accuracy of a test ...
Its:
• • sensitivity
• • specificity
• • positive predictive value
• • negative predictive value.
DIAGNOSTIC TESTS
• Diagnostic tests should produce
• as few false positive and false negative
readings as possible. A test with few false
positives has a high specificity, and a test with
few false negatives has a high sensitivity
Test evaluation
• Accuracy
– the accuracy of a test relates to its ability to give a
true measure of the substance being measured
– to be accurate, a test need not always be close to the
true value, but if repeat tests are run, the average of
the results should be close to the true value
– an accurate test will not over‐ or under‐estimate the
true value
– results from tests can be 'corrected' if the degree of
inaccuracy can be measured and the test results
adjusted accordingly
• e.g. the shrunken tape measure
Test evaluation
• Precision
– the precision of a test relates to how consistent
the results of the test are
– if a test always gives the same value for a sample
(regardless of whether or not it is the correct
value), it is said to be precise
Test evaluation
• How do we measure accuracy?
– run the test on samples with a known quantity of
substance present
– these can be field samples for which the quantity
of substance present has been determined by
another, accepted reference procedure
– alternatively, the accuracy of a test can be
determined by testing samples to which a known
quantity of a substance has been added (‘spiking’)
Test evaluation
• The terms accuracy and precision refer to how
the test performs at producing a numeric
estimate
• Need to consider how these numeric
estimates can be used to determine whether
or not disease is present
Accuracy and precision
Accurate and imprecise
Accuracy and precision
Accurate and precise
Accuracy and precision
Inaccurate and precise
Accuracy and precision
Inaccurate and imprecise
Test evaluation
• Some terms:
– sensitivity: the proportion of subjects with disease
that test positive
– specificity: the proportion of subjects without
disease that test negative
21 of 42
Test evaluation
• Sensitivity
– the proportion of subjects with disease that test
positive
• Specificity
– the proportion of subjects without disease that
test negative
Test evaluation
• Diagnostic tests are seldom 100% accurate
• New tests should be validated by comparison
against an established gold standard
• Gold standards usually imperfect
• Rothman and Greenland (1998):
– … the costs of the illness in tested individuals and
the cost of the test and errors from test
misclassification should be less than the cost of
illness had the test not been conducted …
Test evaluation
• Sensitivity and specificity are inversely related
– where test results are measured on a continuous
scale Se and Sp can be varied by changing the cut‐off
value
– if the primary objective is to find diseased individuals,
a test with a high Se is required (i.e. we don’t mind
getting a few false positives)
– if the objective is to make sure that every test positive
is 'truly' diseased, a test with high Sp is required (i.e.
we don’t mind getting a few false negatives)
NATURAL HISTORY AND PROGNOSIS
• HISTORY –
• Stages of disease:
• • pathological onset
• • presymptomatic stage
• • clinical stage
NATURAL HISTORY AND PROGNOSIS
• PROGNOSIS –
• Prediction of the future course of the
disease following its onset:
• case finding
• survival
EFFECTIVENESS OF TREATMENT
• EFFICACY:
• An intervention is efficacious if it does more
good than harm in patients who use it.
• EFFECTIVE:
• An intervention is effective if it does more
good than harm in those patients to whom it
is offered.
PREVENTION IN CLINICAL PRACTICE
• PRIMARY: child immunization
• SECONDARY: screening for cancer
• TERTIARY: rehabilitation after stroke