Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948

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Energy Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Analysis and projection of energy consumption in Ecuador: Energy T

efficiency policies in the transportation sector
Pedro L. Castro Verdezoto∗, Jorge A. Vidoza, Waldyr L.R. Gallo
University of Campinas, Mechanical Engineering Faculty, Energy Planning Department, Brazil

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: A forecast model for the Ecuador energy sector was elaborated, by using LEAP model, this study aims to analyze
LEAP model the behavior of the energy matrix depending on energy forecast and efficiency policy scenarios, applying a
Transportation sector bottom-up analysis and considering the latest politics/infrastructure planning background in Ecuador. The
Energy consumption model and considerations proposed will result in a final energy consumption of 158 million BOE in 2030, in
Integrated resources planning
which the transportation sector is the main energy consumer. Regarding Ecuador energy planning, of which a
Energy efficiency policies
critical point is the hydroelectricity available due to the commissioning of new hydro power plants, estimated at
63,513 Gwh in 2030, this value is 3.25 times that generated in 2010. In addition, the energy saving of 15 million
BOE is forecast, as well as the reduction in GHG emission related to that saving due to the energy efficiency
program PEC, which replaces LPG stoves with induction stoves in Ecuadorian households. Results point out that
energy efficiency policies for the transportation sector would reduce oil products (2.97% in the high growth
scenario), which could be reallocated to the industrial sector. Finally, another critical point is the rapid decline in
the oil self-sufficiency, estimated at 15 years counted from 2030.

1. Introduction
Crude oil production in Ecuador began in the seventies. Since then,
crude oil has displaced firewood, becoming the most exploited source of
energy in the country, which resulted in changes in economic structure
and territorial urban organization (Acosta, 2006; CEDIG, 1987). Pro-
duction and export of crude oil became the main sources of wealth
generation, reducing the importance of other commodities such as
plantain and cocoa in the local economy (Jácome, 1987).
According to the National Energy Balance, crude oil production has
a share of 87.60% of primary energy production. In total values, this
means a production of 201 million barrels, of which 69.15% were ex-
ported (INER, 2017). Nevertheless, the revenues from crude oil sale had
a share of 32.57% of the total exports (BCE, 2018). Considering that
Ecuador depends on commodities such as crude oil, the local economy
has high a vulnerability to external factors, as studied by Acosta (2006),
Correa (2004), Quevedo et al. (1986). This situation is worsened by
difficulties in the local dollarized economy, which decreases the gov-
ernment's ability to define monetary policies (Falconí, 2004).
According to Arbex and Perobelli (2010), average world energy
consumption will grow at an annual rate of 2%, considering the var-
iation on the conditions and characteristics of each society; developed
economies have rates of 1%, while developing economies’ rates are four
times higher. The Ecuadorian growth rate of energy consumption was
3.60% in the period from 2000 to 2016. During the same period, the
Ecuadorian rate was higher than the South American average energy
growth rate (2.22%), the Andean community (2.86%), and border
countries with similar economies: Peru (3.46%) and Colombia (1.85%)
(OLADE, 2018).
Within the global context, the transportation and industrial sectors
are the main consumers of energy, with a share of 28.75% and 28.81%,
respectively, of global consumption in 2016. The consumption of both
sectors was based mainly on fossil fuels. In the same year, the global
consumption of oil products was 3,893 Mtoe, of which 65.07% was
destined towards the transportation sector (IEA, 2018). The largest
fossil-fuel-based consumption in the transportation sector makes it re-
sponsible for 14% of the global emissions of GEI (WEC, 2016).
Ecuador is not an exception; currently, the main energy consumer is
the transportation sector, which has gradually increased its consump-
tion in recent years. In the eighties, it had a 36% share of final energy
consumption, but in the nineties it reached its peak value of above 50%
(OLADE, 2018).
From fast economic-energy growth, together with a limited refining
capacity – currently 176 thousand B/D (EP PETROECUADOR, 2001) –
there arose a deficit of locally-produced oil products, thus, opening a
gap between supply and demand of local domestic fuels. This resulted

∗
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: ing.pedrocastro@hotmail.com (P.L. Castro Verdezoto).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110948
Received 9 November 2018; Received in revised form 14 August 2019; Accepted 20 August 2019
0301-4215/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al.
in significant imports of gasoline, diesel and LPG, equivalent to 50% of
the volume offered for domestic consumption. From an economic point
of view, in 2017, oil product imports were 3.18 billion USD, equivalent
to 3.08% of nominal GDP (BCE, 2018).
In 2016, Ecuador's final energy consumption was 90 million Barrels
of Oil Equivalent (BOE) and CO2 emissions were 41 million tons; the
transportation and power-generation sectors had a share of 45.03% and
20.22% respectively. In addition, 70.63% of the total GHG emissions
were related to diesel, gasoline and fuel oil consumption; the two first
were mainly related to transportation sector (INER, 2017). This situa-
tion was aggravated by the excess subsides, which in 2012 reached the
maximum historical value of US$ 5.76 billion, equivalent to 6.55% of
GDP for the same year.
The previous context analysis allowed for an understanding of the
great importance of the transportation sector in the future development
of the Ecuadorian economy, which is linked to resolving an increasing
deficit of local oil products. In order to foresee future scenarios, this
study aims to present a detailed energy analysis of the Ecuadorian en-
ergy matrix and propose energy efficiency strategies focused on the
transportation sector, concentrating on heavy cargo and individual
passenger land transportation. So, considering that the growing trend of
vehicle fleet based on fossil fuels will continue in the long-term, pro-
posing energy efficiency policies to seek the reduction in energy con-
sumption is necessary, as well as the reduction in the speed of GHG
emissions and achievement of better focus of existing subsidies.
Additionally, current government energy policies are analyzed and
contextualized using the obtained results (SENPLADES, 2013).
2. Research literature review
Authors in several macro-economic and energetic studies used en-
ergy resource planning methodology (Sa, 2005) to obtain insights of
future energy supply/demand scenarios. The objective is to foresee
long-term impacts or changes existing in all energy consumption sec-
tors. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System – LEAP is the
main modelling tool for this study, due to its characteristics and sce-
nario structure, which allows for the comparison and analysis of dif-
ferent energy policies. 192 countries in the world have used this tool for
local and world-range studies (Di Sbroiavacca, 2014).
The LEAP model has been used with different approaches such as:
alternative energy resource use, energy supply and demand, power
generation, industrial sector policies, policies and environmental im-
pacts, as seen in references (Ates, 2015; Huang et al., 2011; Islas et al.,
2007; Kale and Pohekar, 2014; Kuldna et al., 2015; Kumar et al., 2003;
McPherson and Karney, 2014; Vidoza and Gallo, 2016). Regarding
scenario modelling, most studies consider economic, demographic and
technological aspects, together with specific information related to the
peculiarities of each studied region.
Authors Morales and Sauer (2001) and Cárdenas (2008) used the
LEAP model to determine scenarios to reduce the consumption of fossil
fuels and greenhouses gases in Ecuador. Sauer analyzes the impact of
policies paying special attention to the residential sector, resulting in a
possible total energy consumption reduction of 6% (Morales and Sauer,
2001). On the other hand, Cardenas defines energy policies in all de-
manding and producing sectors of the Ecuadorian society, obtaining a
potential reduction of 35 million tons of CO2 (Cárdenas, 2008). Fol-
lowing this same reasoning, the Ecuadorian National Institute of Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy – INER – performed a prospective
study for the local energy sector, in which different scenarios were
analyzed using the LEAP model. This study evaluated changes in the
local energy matrix; and estimated a final energy consumption of 300
million BOE in 2050 (INER, 2016).
In regards to current studies about Ecuador's energy issues,
Escribano (2013) and Fontaine et al. (2019) discuss the conceptual
aspects of energy policies considering the local reality. In regards to
renewable sources: Robalino-López et al. (2014) developed a dynamics
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Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948
model system to evaluate CO2 emissions considering the increase in
renewable energy, with Pelaez-Samaniego et al. (2014) analyzing the
pre-feasibility of electrolytic hydrogen production, and Posso et al.
(2016) estimated the potential of renewable energy.
Authors like: Briones Hidrovo et al. (2017) and Ramirez et al.
(2019) evaluate environmental impacts based on Life cycle assessments
for reservoirs of hydropower and electricity generation mix, respec-
tively. In the transport sector, Posso et al. (2015) evaluated the uses of
hydrogen in this sector, Sierra (2016) estimated road transportation
consumption and Gallardo et al. (2018) analyzed logistical changes to
reduce energy intensity for liquid fuel transportation.
Even though important results were obtained in the aforementioned
studies, there are still gaps in knowledge of short- and mid-term periods
for the Ecuadorian energy matrix, especially due to the increasing
deficit in oil products, and the uncertainties of oil sector policies. In this
context, the present research analyzes this situation more deeply, and
includes an overview of the current related regulation framework,
emphasizing the tradeoff between economic development and en-
vironmental trends of CO2 emissions reduction.
3. LEAP model structure
The prospective model considers economic, demographic and
technological aspects, defining them as key assumptions. Consequently,
final energy consumption depends on GDP growth, population growth
and energy intensity for each demand group and sector (Fig. 1). The
economic aspects in the Ecuadorian society are represented by the GDP
growth, based on the empirical assessment of the long-term relationship
between energy consumption and GDP in Latin American countries
(Barreto and Campo, 2012), as well as of the positive relationship be-
tween the Gross Value Added and the energy consumption in Latin
American and Caribbean countries (Pablo-Romero and De Jesús, 2016).
As described in the previous paragraph, Ecuador is not the excep-
tion (Table 1), In fact, due to the great dependence of the economy to
crude oil export, according to Pinzón (2017) the oil sector is an im-
portant determinant of the Ecuadorian economic growth. Thus, policy
measures to diminish its production or consumption levels would imply
significant impacts on the economic growth. Also, the Ecuadorian
economy is not self-sufficient in oil products, implying significant im-
ports of them. Therefore, the oil and hydrocarbon production are
considered key assumptions (Fig. 1).
The energy intensity is used for representing the variation in energy
consumption for different scenarios, considering that this indicator is
sensitive to variations in per capita income, petroleum prices, GDP
growth, and fuel energy mix in Latam countries (Jimenez and Mercado,
2014). In other words, this index is appropriate to definition of the
technological an economic relation in the society, used to define the
different policy scenarios (Fig. 7).
In this sense, the model uses a bottom-up approach to determine the
energy consumption of diverse sectors, considering the interrelation
among them, as well as the competition of all sectors to obtain the
different energy resources available.
Final energy demand, which is the sum of energy demands for each
sector, is satisfied by the transformation process output, and in turn the
transformation process by the availability of energy resources, mainly
oil reserves and hydro energy in the Ecuadorian case. The energy de-
mand considers all consumption sectors in society; the transformation
process considers all available infrastructures, as well as expansion
plans, and the interaction between primary energy production with the
external and domestic markets.
3.1. Demand
Household and transport sectors have a parametric logic, which
means that energy consumption is the product of the unit consumption
of each division by the total number of elements. Levels are composed
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al. Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948

Fig. 1. General model structure.

Table 1 disaggregation for all households, which is closer to the Ecuadorian

Economic – energy relationship by sectora. reality (Fig. 2). The first level of desegregation is: population location,
Sector Correlation (GDP – Energy Consumption)
divided into urban and rural populations. In Ecuador there are a sig-
nificant number of households in the rural sector, and these households
Industrial 0.95 have a different “energy-consumption behavior” to urban households,
Agriculture 0.91 due to lifestyle, cultural and geographical aspects.
Commerce 0.95
Construction 0.94
The second level considers access to electricity. In recent years the
number of households with electricity has risen, implying an increase in
a
Values calculated from the Input-Output Matrix and Energy Balance. electrical consumption due to the supply of repressed demand. The
third level, considers the end uses and technological aspects, in order to
by several divisions according to social and technological aspects, end evaluate the main energy uses in households, as well as government
uses and energy sources. While industrial, commercial, construction, energy efficiency programs. The last level is related to the type of en-
and other sectors have an economic energy relationship according to ergy sources: this level demonstrates the competition between re-
historical trends and growth perspectives. sidential and other sectors for the existing available energy sources.
Therefore, the basic unit to determine total energy consumption is the
number of households by division until level 4, as seen in Fig. 2.
3.1.1. Household sector
The number of households for each division is referenced by in-
Kumar et al. (2003) structured a LEAP model with a division scheme
formation from the National Statistics Institute of Ecuador - INEC
of households in Vietnam having three levels of disaggregation. This
(2010a) – obtained from the 2010 national census, which stated the
study considered a similar scheme, considering four levels of

Fig. 2. Structure model in household sector.

3
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al.
existence of 3.9 million households with an average of 3.78 inhabitants
per household, of which 64.02% were classed as urban and 35.98% as
rural. To highlight: 97.77% of urban households and 89.59% of rural
households have access to electricity. In general, the urban population
uses a greater number of household equipment, mainly; refrigerators,
spotlights, kitchens, air-conditioners, televisions, cellphones and other
devices.
Unit energy consumptions for each division are based on previous
studies: Tello (2015), Sánchez (2013), Serrano and Rojas (2013). For
consumption divisions in the ultimate levels, in which information
about energy consumption was not available, the model defines an
historic trend based on national energy balances.
Regarding household trends per division, historical consumption
trends are considered along with projections of population growth
(INEC, 2010b; SIISE, 2016). Likewise, the model considers the Energy
Efficiency Program – PEC, whose main objective is to replace the use of
LPG by electricity for cooking and water heating by replacing LPG
stoves for induction stoves in 3 million households by 2023; as well as
the use of electrical equipment for water heating in 750 thousand
homes. According to the government, this policy is based on the wide
availability of hydroelectric power for the forthcoming years
(ARCONEL, 2016).
3.1.2. Transportation sector
The transportation sector includes all existing modalities: maritime,
air and land; amongst these modalities, land transportation is the most
dynamic and the main consumer of energy with an 87% share of all
consumption in this sector. A correlation is created to determine the
annual energy consumption in maritime and air transportation. This
correlation relates fuel consumption to fleets of ships and aircrafts. It is
considered that a growth of 2% of maritime ships and 5% of aircrafts
happens every ten years, based on historical data over the past 20 years.
Regarding land transportation, a parametric model is structured to
determine annual energy consumption. This parametric model con-
siders 3 variables: number of vehicles, performance, and the annual
distance traveled. The number of vehicles is established by historical
data of the Ecuadorian vehicle feet, available from the statistics in-
stitute (INEC, 2011). This data is arranged in 5 disaggregation levels
according to the type of: use, intensity, vehicle, engine and fuel, as seen
in Fig. 3 and Fig. 4.
The first disaggregation level corresponds to the type of use: pas-
sengers or cargo, which have completely different practices and
Fig. 3. Model structure for passenger transportation sector.
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Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948
behaviors. Passenger consumption is correlated to demographic para-
meters, while cargo consumption is related to economic parameters.
The second disaggregation level corresponds to types of vehicles; for
individual transportation: Auto, SUV, Motorcycle and taxi, every type
has different focuses of use and consumption. Collective transportation
has two types: Bus and Passenger van, the first is a large transportation
type, in city and intercity forms, and the second mainly considers
tourism and school uses.
The fourth level refers to the energy source feeding the vehicle:
electrical, hybrid and bio/fossil fuels – without doubt, internal com-
bustion engines possess the largest share; therefore, the fleet of electric
and hybrid vehicles has a minimum share in passenger consumption.
Nevertheless, the model considers the penetration of both technologies.
The trends of increasing local electricity generation and the worldwide
increase in electric vehicle fleets may favor this scenario. Regarding
ethanol use, the model structure uses Ecuadorian national government
planning, mainly in coastal cities (MICSE, 2016).
The last level is related to fuel type, the largest energy consumption
being related to oil products, mainly diesel and gasoline. The model
considers ethanol use to evaluate its penetration rate in the domestic
market. This level shows the tradeoff competition between technolo-
gies, as well as the impact of energy efficiency policies, as seen in Fig. 3.
Following the branch of Cargo vehicles, they are arranged according
to their load intensity: light, medium and heavy, as seen in Fig. 4. Diesel
fuel has the largest consumption of all divisions. Heavy cargo has the
largest share of energy consumption. The third level considers cargo
dimensions and uses; the aim is to identify the main consumer to
structure specific policies. As with passenger transportation, the in-
ternal combustion engine is the most common at the fourth level, which
considers energy source.
The fifth level refers to fuel type, in which diesel covers almost the
entire demand, due to the large quantity of diesel engines in the cargo
fleet; hence, consumption of other fossil and non-fossil sources is
marginal. Additionally, to calculate the performance and yearly dis-
tance traveled in each division, the model includes the results of the
studies conducted by INER (2012) and Sierra (2016), for the Ecua-
dorian case. Both studies obtained parameters such as: Vehicle kilo-
meters traveled - VTK and the energy performance for the divisions in
each level shown in Figs. 3 and 4.
Ecuador has no significant participation of any rail transport mode,
both for passengers or cargo. However, energy consumption for future
projects is considered; the future Tramway in Cuenca and the first
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al. Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948

Fig. 4. Model structure in cargo transportation sector.

Fig. 5. Projections of the transformation sector: electric generation capacity (a) and refining structure (b).

Subway Line in Quito, which will begin operating in 2019 and 2020,
respectively.
3.1.3. Other sectors
Considering the crude oil production relevance in the Ecuadorian
economy, there is a positive correlation between wealth generation and
energy consumption for all productive sectors: industry, construction,
commerce and agriculture. Therefore, the authors consider an eco-
nomic-energetic energy consumption estimate by sector; using the
historical relation between the growths of added GDP values and their
respective energy consumptions, relations which are high positive
correlations (Table 1). This means that higher economic growth implies
higher energy consumption.
Although the industrial sector is the second largest consumer of
energy, its GDP contribution is low, equivalent to 13%. This is probably
due to the low level of industrialization in Ecuador; it means that in-
dustries with high energy consumption have low wealth generation.
To forecast industrial energy consumption, this study considers a
governmental strategy to change the productive matrix in Ecuador,
focused mainly on Pacific Refinery projects, construction of hydro-
electric plants and the steel industry (SENPLADES, 2013). There are
additional proposals from the government to create energy-intensive
industries, such as: cellulose and paper, aluminum manufacturing,
copper industry, petrochemicals, shipyards and others. Nevertheless,
these are not considered in the model, because they are still at an early
stage: this is taken as a premise to avoid distortions or results with little

5
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al.
veracity.
3.2. Transformation
The base year of the study considers the physical infrastructure
available in the country: three main refineries, hydroelectric plants,
thermoelectric plants and a gas processing center. Complementary in-
formation about nominal capacities, processing, supply and production,
and expansion planning are obtained from official sources and local
energy companies (ARCONEL, 2014; MICSE, 2017).
The model prioritizes 2 energy policies: the increase in hydroelectric
infrastructure and the change in the refining structure. Fig. 5 presents
the projections for both policies, according to official information
available from ARCONEL (2016) and MRNNR (2013). The first policy
consists of the construction of large hydroelectric power plants, which
will be gradually incorporated into the national system, according to
government plans. This means an increase of 6,296 MW in installed
power capacity by 2025; also highlighted is the Santiago project to be
completed by 2023, which entails the inclusion of 2,400 MW of in-
stalled capacity to the grid. According to ARCONEL (2016) the Santiago
project will be considered in the scenario of the change in the pro-
ductive matrix.
The increase in hydroelectric capacity implies a reduction in ther-
moelectric generation and consequently an increased availability of
fuels that were destined for electric energy production, mainly: diesel
and fuel oil. Hence, one expected response of the model is the reaction
of all sectors considering this availability of resources.
The second energy policy consists in the construction of a new re-
finery (Pacific Refinery) with a capacity of 300 thousand barrels per
day; this project will have positive impacts on society, such as: increase
in GDP, import reduction, unemployment rate decrease, and others
(Castro et al., 2018). According to the operational planning of the state
oil company PETROECUADOR EP, the construction of the refinery is
planned in two planned stages, starting with a processing capacity of
200 Thousand B/D (EP PETROECUADOR, 2014). Therefore, the model
only considers the execution of the first stage, to begin in 2021.
3.3. Energy resources
According to the Ministry of Hydrocarbons (MERNNR, 2017),
Ecuador's proven reserves are 4.1 billion Bbl., linked to a production of
500 thousand barrels per day. Which at the current consumption and
exportation rate results in 38 years of self-sustainable oil consumption.
That is, an unfavorable horizon. In addition, the implementation of the
Pacific Refinery, which requires a supply of 100 million Bbl./year,
would imply a reduction in crude oil exportation in favor of domestic
refinery supply.
Expected market responses are impacts on oil product imports, in-
creased availability of energy resources for exportation, and a dispute
between sectors for these available resources. Another alternative is
increasing the capacity of crude oil production to maintain oil ex-
portation income, but this alternative is not considered in the model
because there are no significant new reserves in the long-term.
Natural gas is another available resource in Ecuador, but on a
smaller scale than crude oil. Proven natural gas reserves in 2015 were
11.10 Gm3, linked to an annual production of 1.68 Gm3. This hydro-
carbon is primarily destined for the generation of electricity. There are
industrial and residential consumptions, but in smaller proportions.
This scarce reserve has favored non-intensive natural gas use in final
consumption. Nevertheless, the power generation expansion considers
the incorporation of 180 MW of thermal power plants fueled by natural
gas.
Regarding renewable resources, according to ARCONEL (2014),
Ecuador has 11 hydrographic systems with a potential of 73,390 MW, of
which 21,520 MW is economically feasible. Expansion plans by 2025
are considered. There is an expected increase in electrical energy
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Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948
available to satisfy the internal demand as a first priority, and to then
release the remaining available amount for regional exportation or
other uses.
Regarding non-traditional renewable resources, there are currently
two wind farms in the Galapagos and Loja provinces, with a total
nominal capacity of 21.15 MW. However, according to the Ecuador
wind atlas, there is a wind potential of 1,691 MW for electrical gen-
eration. Concerning solar energy, there are 21 photovoltaic power
plants, with a total nominal capacity of 26 MW, mainly focused on the
Galapagos Islands to create a clean region, with entirely renewable
electric generation energy.
Biomass is used for electricity generation and ethanol production.
Biomass-based electricity generation is destined to local sugar con-
sumption and sugar cane industries of which there is an installed ca-
pacity of 134.40 MW. Ethanol production has an expansion plan which
aims to reach the E10 mix in the medium-term, focusing on coastal
cities (MICSE, 2017).
3.4. Scenarios and efficiency energy policies
Policies are focused on the land transportation sector, as it is the
main energy consumer in Ecuador, with a large potential of continuing
increase over the next years. This increase would be justified by main
two reasons: economic growth and fuel subsidies. The first is reflected
in the vehicle fleet growth, which in 2003 was 723 thousand units,
growing to 1.9 million vehicles in 2015, increasing 266% during that
period. Consequently, the ratio of vehicles per 100 thousand in-
habitants increased from 54 in 2003 to 118 in 2015. In addition, the
largest growth period occurred between 2009 and 2015, with an annual
growth rate of 11.39%, while real GDP had an annual growth rate of
4.33%. Despite the significant fleet growth, Ecuadorian statistics are
lower than Latin American and regional averages (ALAADA, 2016;
CAN, 2015; Hidalgo and Huizenga, 2013).
Concerning fuel subsidies, according to the German Agency for
Development - GIZ (2015) – in 2014 the Ecuadorian market had final
consumer prices of gasoline (US$ 0.60/liter) and diesel (US$ 0.29/
liter), both prices that were lower than international averages. In fact,
the sale price of diesel was lower than the price of a barrel of oil on the
international market (US$ 0.49/liter). Thus, the country is considered
to be within the high subsidy range.
On the same topic, according to Espinoza and Guayanlema (2017),
the excess of subsidies in Ecuador caused an increase in social in-
equalities, as well as inefficient uses of energy resources. The authors
resumed the significant increase in two points: fuel consumption in
private transportation and the difference between fuel dispatch and fuel
consumption, which they categorize as “unidentified”. Despite an effort
to control it, this difference has not decreased. In 2015 the “uni-
dentified” for gasoline was at least 20% of the total dispatched.
The largest fuel consumer is goods and merchandise transportation,
which in 2015 had a participation 60% of total land transportation.
Consequently, the energy ratio by vehicle in the case of heavy cargo is
327 BOE/vehicle, which is above the passenger transportation ratio of
6.5 BOE/vehicle for the same year (INER, 2014; Sierra, 2016). In this
context, the study proposes implementing energy efficiency policies,
such as: LPG reduction, increase of diesel consumption in cargo trans-
portation, renewal of the cargo vehicle fleet, reduction in the SUV fleet
in favor of sedan cars. Some of the exposed policies were evaluated in
previous studies, giving preliminary results regarding their feasibility
and benefits (Guayanlema, 2016; Rivela et al., 2014).
These energy efficiency policies are feasible to execute for im-
mediate implementation in Ecuadorian society, and they are policies
that would not require high levels of investment nor technological
difficulties. In other words, policies that would be implemented
through market regulation or taxes on inefficient technologies.
To achieve a wide range of forecasts and considering the high
sensibility of the Ecuadorian energy consumption to economic,
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al.
Fig. 6. Model structure of forecast scenarios.
demographic and oil production changes, the model considers forecast
scenarios based on assumption variables, for which each forecast sce-
nario is its own combination of assumptions. That is, the high scenario
has a combination of high growth assumptions, while the low scenario
assumes slight growth assumptions (Fig. 6).
Efficiency policies consist of technological changes, so that taking
into account the parametric structure of transportation consumption,
the implementation of the policies is based on alterations of technical
parameters according to different categories and modes of transporta-
tion; these changes in the parameters are the same for all energy effi-
ciency scenarios (Fig. 6).
Hence, to analyze policy impact, the model considers 6 scenarios for
energy matrix forecasting; the base year is 2010 with a projection up
2030, we consider 2010 because in this year the national census was
executed, allowing for a wide disaggregation of the household sector,
due to the amount of primary information. The model defines the
business as usual scenario (BAU) as an economic growth trend and the
execution of current government energy policies, without any relation
to proposed energy policies. This scenario considers an annual eco-
nomic growth of 3%, based on regional projections estimated by
Hawksworth and Chan (2015), as well as projections estimated by local
authors, like Mosquera-Martínez (2010) and INER (2016) for energy
forecasting studies. The other exogenous variable is the projection of
population growth. For this variable, the following considerations were
made: a growth rate of 1.55% for the period between 2010-2020 and
1.33% for the period between 2020-2030, based on INEC's projections.
As explained in the previous paragraphs, another scenario may be
possible when establishing the aforementioned energy policies. This
new scenario is named BAU&E and it considers the proposed energy
efficiency policies in order to determine potential energy savings and
their implications and impact on all energy sectors.
Due to the model's high sensitivity to economic factors, the un-
certainty of the oil markets plays an important role in the Ecuadorian
economy. Scenarios are also divided into High growth (HG) and Low
growth (LG), to obtain an assertive range of results for the estimation of
future values (Fig. 7). The HG scenario considers an annual rate of 3.5%
for economic growth and 1.5% for population growth, linked to crude
oil production of 500 thousand B/D. The LG scenario considers an
annual rate of 2.5% for economic growth and 1.25% for population
growth, linked to crude oil production of 475 thousand B/D for 2030.
In addition, as shown in Fig. 7, the impact of energy efficiency
policies is also analyzed in these two scenarios. This division results in a
high growth scenario with efficiency policies (HG&E) and a low growth
scenario with efficiency policies (LG&E). In other words, the model
shows an evaluation of policy impact for all the possible scenarios.
To define the range of high growth and low growth, the historical
variation of GDP from 1966 to 2015 was calculated, and this variation
was then compared with the studies conducted by ARCONEL (2016)
and INER (2016). With respect to crude oil production, this is based on
the Hydrocarbon Master Plan. Therefore, the scenario of high
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Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948
investment in oil production is associated with a High Growth Scenario
(HG), while the scenario of low investment in oil production is asso-
ciated with a Low Growth Scenario (LC) (MRNNR, 2013).
4. Results and discussion
The time frame between 2010 and the last year of energy balance
publication in 2016 allowed for an improvement in technological
parameters, technology participation in final energy, and other useful
information to calibrate the model consistent with the Ecuadorian
reality. As a result, we obtained a better forecast exercise.
As a result of these two characteristics, we achieved high levels of
accuracy for the estimation of energy consumption both for sectorial
consumption and for consumption by energy resource (Fig. 8). In 2010,
according to the official information, Ecuadorian society consumed
80.14 million BOE, the transportation sector being the main consumer
with 33.97 million BOE. The model estimated these values to be 78.69
million BOE for total consumption and 34.73 million BOE for trans-
portation consumption, implying errors of -1.83% and 2.23%, respec-
tively.
According to Fig. 8, the best yearly estimate for the calibration
period is 2016 with an error of 0.68% for total energy consumption and
sectorial errors below 1%. For 2012, there is a positive estimate of total
energy consumption. Nevertheless, the transportation, household, and
industrial sectors display errors of 2.54%, 1.84% and -3.61%, respec-
tively. Furthermore, the worst estimated year is 2014 with an error of
-4.81% from total energy consumption, and the industrial sector has an
estimation error of -10.29%, this being the value of the highest error in
the historical series by sector (Fig. 8a).
The estimate for fuel consumption, when compared with the sec-
torial estimate, is not as accurate, implying errors between -16.05% to
12.54% which are mostly concentrated in Primary and Other Secondary
fuels, which have a low participation (Fig. 8b). The reason for this is
probably linked to improvements to calibrations in transformation
processes and the calorific value of fuels. However, the main sources
such as gasoline, diesel, LGP electricity have estimations with errors
below 5%.
The calibration period allowed for the model to be updated annually
with real information. Consequently, its estimates commit the least
possible errors, making its results in the medium term as realistic as
possible.
4.1. Final demand
The main model result is final energy consumption in 2030. It was
established that final energy consumption may double in a 20-year
period. This entails a demand of 158 million BOE in 2030; the industrial
sector would display the fastest growth, hence its share would grow
from 18% in 2010 to 29% in 2030. The economic growth in the in-
dustrial sector and the future existence of intensive industries, such as
Pacific refinery, steel and aluminum, and the petrochemical industry,
influence these results.
Diesel oil and electricity would be under greater demand in the
industrial sector, representing 68% of the final total demand, while the
demand for fuel oil would not present significant variations. Therefore,
the availability of these energy resources must be guaranteed to support
this industrial growth; otherwise, its lack of availability would cause
high diesel imports. In this context, the construction of the Pacific
Refinery is necessary to supply this growing demand. As a favorable
point, the construction of new hydroelectric power plants will supply
the electricity demand in all sectors especially in the industrial area,
reducing imports in the medium-term.
The residential sector would not present increases in final con-
sumption due to the implementation of the government energy effi-
ciency program, PEC, implying a reduction of 4 million BOE by 2030.
Nevertheless, its execution would imply an increase in household
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al.
Fig. 7. Structure of projection scenarios.
Fig. 8. Calculated comparison vs real data: sector consumption (a) and fuel consumption (b).
electricity consumption and this value is estimated at 14,363 Gwh in
2030; therefore, the execution of PEC is restricted to the availability of
electricity in the energy supply matrix.
The transportation sector would continue to be the most energy
intensive (Fig. 9a), with an equivalent share of 38.9% of final con-
sumption in 2030, additionally increasing its energy consumption by
1.81 times over 20 years. The main categories of consumption are cars
and SUVs for land-based passenger transportation, and categories of
light and medium load for transportation of goods and merchandise.
Fig. 9b shows that electricity and diesel would display greater
growth, representing 55% of final consumption in 2030. In the case of
electricity, its growth is related to technological aspects, and by the
substitution of LPG stoves for induction stoves. Diesel consumption
increases mainly due to the industrial sector and freight transport.
Fig. 10a shows the implication of the PEC program, LPG transition
to electrical cooking due a decrease in the number of LPG stoves of 89%
and 15% for the urban and rural households, respectively. The main
8
Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948
result of the policy is a slight increase in household consumption from
2010 to 2030. According to model, if the PEC program is not executed,
household consumption would be 15 million of BEP in 2030, which
means an increase of 41% in respect to the projection for the same year.
In contrast, because there is no energy efficiency program for the
road transportation sector, this subsector increases its consumption
from 27 million BOE in 2010 to 55 million in 2030. That is, in a period
of 20 years, its energy consumption would double; in which passenger
and cargo transportation have a participation of 43% and 57% in this
increase, respectively.
Fig. 10b shows the main categories of consumption: individual
transportation in the case of passengers, and heavy and light cargo in
the case of cargo transportation. These three categories concentrate
66% of the increase up to 2030. Therefore, the study proposes energy
efficiency policies focused mainly on these categories, as well as studies
that propose policies or strategies that reduce their consumption levels
(Gallardo et al., 2018; Posso et al., 2015).
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al.
Fig. 9. Projections for final energy demand: sector consumption (a) and fuel consumption (b).
4.2. Transformation sector
The electricity generation in 2030 is estimated at 63,513 GW h, this
value is 3.25 times the generation in 2010. This availability is due to the
execution of all hydroelectric and thermoelectric plans and not al-
lowing for idle capacity in the electricity system. In addition, since
2017 there is a larger share of hydroelectric generation, while ther-
moelectric generation does not expand significantly. To highlight, be-
tween 2010 and 2017, local electricity production supplies the entire
final demand, but from 2018 to 2030 there is a surplus of electricity
(Fig. 11a).
According to governmental forecasts, an electricity surplus would
be destined for regional exportation, mainly to Colombia and Peru
(Albornoz, 2016). Nevertheless, this policy would be hampered by the
high hydroelectric generation potential in these countries, guaranteeing
their self-sufficiency (MEM, 2011; UPME, 2015).
Fig. 10. Projections for energy consumption: household sector (a) and transportation sector (b).
9
Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948
In this context, a proposal for a subsequent study is an analysis of
electric vehicle penetration in the Ecuadorian market, based on inter-
national trends and technological advances. However, at the beginning,
electric vehicles require incentives in order to be competitive (Hall
et al., 2017; Mock and Zifei, 2014), as well as the development of in-
frastructure in Ecuador to guarantee its commercialization
(Peñaherrera, 2017).
As shown in Fig. 11b, final demand for oil products would be cov-
ered by domestic production from 2022 and there is a surplus of pet-
roleum products available for exportation or consumption in other
sectors, implying a significant reduction in diesel, gasoline and GLP
importation. This reduction is due to the execution of the Pacific Re-
finery from 2021.
However, this self-sufficiency would be limited to a period of 10
years. After this period, oil product important will have to resume to
supply domestic demand, due to energy consumption growth in the
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al.
Fig. 11. Projections for transformation sector: (a) Power generation, (b) refinery production.
industrial and transport sectors. Therefore, it is necessary to define
energy efficiency policies in these sectors or alternative technologies
that take advantage of the surplus of available electricity.
4.3. Use of the resources
There would be a decrease in crude oil production in all scenarios by
2030. It should be highlighted that in the BAU and LG scenarios there
would be a supply deficit of crude oil for refineries (Fig. 12a), implying
that for both scenarios an importation of this resource, due to the start
of operations of the “Pacific Refinery”. In this case, as stated by
Creamer (2010), there is a loss of competitiveness and the need for
regional allies to supply crude oil to execute the project. On the other
hand, in the HG scenario, the increase in oil production would allow for
a domestic oil supply to refineries.
Fig. 12b shows that the oil horizon for the three growth scenarios is
not favorable. Thus, there would be an average oil self-sufficiency of
12.33 years for the three scenarios from 2030, assuming that new re-
serves are not incorporated. The refinery matrix changes imply a
Fig. 12. Projections by scenario: (a) oil production, (b) oil reserves.
10
Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948
significant increase in local oil supply, which in turn means an oil ex-
portation reduction. Nevertheless, the new refinery guarantees a re-
duction in oil product imports, as well as a surplus of gasoline and
diesel available for local consumption or regional exports.
The HG scenario is unique in satisfying these two conditions: local
oil supply and tendency in oil exports. Nevertheless, its scenario implies
a rapid decrease in Ecuadorian oil reserves. The LG and BAU scenarios
achieve self-sufficient refineries by 2030, implying the need for oil
importation to supply local refinery demand. Therefore, low growth
scenarios would not be recommendable, although it is true that they are
a low energy consumption scenarios, they are also low wealth-genera-
tion scenarios, which hinder the application of energy transition po-
licies, involving oil product entry into the international market.
Hence, Ecuador presents a high-risk situation and should apply an
energy transition before 2030 or an effort to discover new oil reserves
in 2025 to avoid a decrease in reserves, as well as energy integration
lines between Andean countries, being complementary in energy as-
pects. This paper opens a debate to evaluate economic policies that
allow for appropriate resource usage in productive sectors and decrease
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al. Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948

Table 2
Results of the growth scenarios in 2030.
Variables Low (LG) Business (BAU) High (HG) Units

Economics
GDP Growth 2.50% 3.0% 3.50% %
Real GDP 127 137 148 Billion 2010 US$
GDP per capita 6,433 6,899 7,331 Thousand 2010 US$/Person
Population
Population growth 1.25% 1.33% 1.50% %
Inhabitants 19.8 20 20.3 Millions of inhabitants
Households 5,8 5,9 6,0 Millions of households
Production
Annual average oil production 178 207 246 Millions of Bbl./year
Reserves in 2030 2,175 1,896 1,228 Millions of Bbl.
Reserves/Production Ratioa 14 15 8 Years
Index
Energy Consumption 149 158 169 Million BOE
Electrical Consumption 50,546 53,352 56,941 GWh
Vehicles per capita 123 132 140 Vehicle/1,000 inhabitants
Energy consumption per capita 6.77 7.25 7.77 BEP/inhabit. - year
Electricity consumption per capita 2,555 2,694 2,849 kWh/inhabit. – year
Energy intensity 1.45 1.42 1.40 BEP/Thousand 2010 US$

a
Calculated with oil production in 2030 by scenario. The ratio measures the future years of self-sufficiency counted from 2030.

the destination of energy resources towards consumer sectors through
energy efficiency policies.
4.4. Scenarios discussion
Until now, the study has analyzed a forecast scenario that considers
a growth tendency in assumption variables, revealing unfavorable
conditions for the future aggravated by decreasing oil reserves. Besides
this, it shows opportunities for available energy resources that could be
destined towards the transportation sector.
So, Table 2 shows the results for different consumption levels; that
is, forecast scenarios that consider more influence variables in society
(Fig. 6), revealing that the definition of energy policies becomes a
priority within society. These forecast scenarios will submit to energy
efficiency policies (technological changes) to evaluate possible savings,
as well as propose appropriate usage of these surplus resources..
The HG scenario considers a significant growth rate, implying a real
GDP of US$ 148 Billion in 2030, it is 8% above the BAU scenario.
Nevertheless, its high grow didn't imply a significant increase in GDP
per capita; in fact, this indicator has similar values for all three sce-
narios. In this context, the high growth assumptions (HG) imply an
increase of 6.26% with respect to the BAU scenario in 2030 and a de-
crease of 6.75% for the LG scenario in 2030.
In the three scenarios, final fuel consumption is concentrated into
gasoline, diesel and electricity; however, the model shows two inter-
esting responses: a high gasoline consumption rate in the HG scenario
and the most relevant gained by electricity consumption in the LG
scenario. The first response would be justified by the increase in ve-
hicles per capita in the HG scenario, mainly passenger road transpor-
tation which increases its gasoline consumption by 8.54% in respect to
BAU scenario in 2030.
The low gasoline consumption rate and the energy efficiency the
PEC program in households would justify the electrical consumption
relevance in the LG scenario. In spite of this, the HG scenario has the
most electrical consumption for both total and per capita, due to sig-
nificant increase in industrial electrical consumption, which is 7.3% in
respect to the BAU scenario in 2030.
The reduction in refinery self-supply, as well as the oil reserves
decrease were discussed previously, nevertheless Table 2 exposes an old
debate on energy models, the Ecuadorian oil self-sufficiency. The BAU
and LG scenarios guarantee a major period of self-sufficiency, 15 and 14
years respectively, nevertheless they imply a significant reduction in oil
exports due to the local refinery supply. In other words, a reduction in
national revenues, implying the need for economic studies to evaluate
its implications.
The HG scenario guarantees continuous oil export levels as well as
refinery supply, but this condition implies 8 years of self-sufficiency,
linked to annual production of 162 Million of Bbl. In other words,
Ecuador which currently is an oil export country is at risk of becoming
an oil-importing country in the medium-term, considering the premises
of the refinery matrix change, as well as non-discovery of new oil fields.
The energy intensity doesn't vary significantly between scenarios,
nevertheless in the HG scenario major efficiency is implied in regards to
resource usage, implying a consumption of 1.40 BEP to produce a
monetary unit, which is a decrease of 1% in reference to the BAU
scenario. On the other hand, there is an increase in energy consumption
per capita, 7.17% reference to the BAU scenario, a response to the
model to satisfy repressed demand, opening a debate regarding whether
this increase will be destined for consumption or the productive sector.
4.5. Impact of efficiency policies
All the consumption sectors present variations in high and low
growth scenarios. In 2030, final energy consumption is estimated to
increase by 6.61% and decrease by 6.09% in respect to the BAU sce-
nario, for HG and LG respectively. The residential sector would display
a smaller variation in all growth scenarios, because the main categories
of energy consumption are related to household activities and these
categories are less sensitive to economic variations. However, energy
consumption in the household appliances division is more sensitive to
economic factors. This division includes: washing machines, stereos,
TVs, cell phones and other artifacts, whose sales depend on household
purchasing power.
In contrast, construction, services and industry are the sectors that
would suffer greater sensitivity to growth scenarios, due to their high
dependence on economic factors, rather than demographic or energy
factors. The industrial sector, according to the model, would a major
increase in 2030 in comparison to other sectors, consequently in the HG
scenario there is an increase of 3.5 million BOE, equivalent to 7.81% in
respect to the BAU scenario (Fig. 13a). The agriculture sector would
have the least variation in the face of growth scenarios.
Regarding the transportation sector: in the HG scenario, there is an
increase of 7.45% in respect to the BAU scenario in 2030, this value is
equivalent to 4.6 million BOE. Therefore, the definition of energy ef-
ficiency policies in this sector is necessary before 2030. To highlight,
this value is above the industrial increase in the same scenario, with the

11
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al.
Fig. 13. Projections for scenario: Final energy consumption by sector in 2030 (a), Policy Impact on road transportation (b).
difference that the industrial sector generates added value for society,
while the transportation sector does not necessary do so.
Efficiency policies would have an impact on all growth scenarios
focused on the transportation sector, mainly on land transportation.
Consequently, the HG scenario would have the greatest impact with a
saving of 1.6 million BOE, while the LG scenario would have a saving of
1.4 million BOE, implying a reduction of 2.97% and 2.55%, respec-
tively, both cases compared to BAU scenario in 2030 (Fig. 13b). Most of
the savings are concentrated in passenger transportation, obtaining
savings of 1.04 million BOE in the HG scenario and 889 thousand BOE
in the LG scenario, due to the reduction of gasoline and LPG in this
modality.
Fig. 14 shows that policies would have more impact on passenger
transportation than cargo transportation, a result which validates that
the resources are destined to the consumption sector. In fact, the effi-
ciency policy would imply consumption in the HG scenario of 23 mil-
lion BOE in 2030, which is nearly equal to the BAU scenario value in
the same year. In other words, policy implementation would guarantee
high economic growth, maintaining consumption trend levels.
In the HG scenario, cargo transportation would have a saving of 669
thousand BOE, while the LG scenario would have a saving of 573
thousand BOE, implying a reduction of 2,04% and 1.75%, respectively,
Fig. 14. Impact of policy on road transportation: (a) passengers, (b) cargo.
12
Energy Policy 134 (2019) 110948
with both cases compared to the BAU scenario in 2030. Fig. 14b reflects
a low policy effectiveness, so it's necessary to define more compre-
hensive policies, for example: infrastructure policies, alternative mod-
alities like rail or ship cargo, redefinition of the origin-destination
matrix of goods and merchandise.
5. Conclusions and policy implications
A bottom-up model was established and several sectors were ana-
lyzed, emphasizing on transportation and domestic consumption. The
forecast was performed until 2030, with several scenarios covering
diverse efficiency law possibilities.
Repressed demand in past years implied significant growth in en-
ergy consumption in the following period, in 2030 it would be 158
million BOE in the BAU scenario; the transport sector would be the
main consumer, which would increase by 26%, its fleet per capita
would increase from 105 to 132 vehicles per thousand persons for the
same scenario. This growth is concentrated on individual transportation
for passengers. When considering the AC scenario, from 2010 to 2030
the vehicle ratio per capita would be doubled. Its consumption, which
was 6.91 million BOE in 2010, would be 16.5 million BOE in 2030. This
trend points to the need for implementation of energy efficiency
P.L. Castro Verdezoto, et al.
policies in intermediate cities, with the aim of satisfying future demand
which was repressed in the past years, as well as an opportunity for new
infrastructure and planning facilities. Thus, implementation of energy
policies implies a saving of 1.5 million BOE, equivalent to 2.5% of
transportation sector consumption, considering the BAU scenario. This
reduction is focused on gasoline consumption; in fact, gasoline con-
sumption per vehicle would decrease by 28% by 2030. Also, according
to the model, this gasoline surplus would be destined for exportation. In
respect to land cargo transportation, considering the existing vehicle
fleet, it is concluded that the implementation of technology substitution
policies would have slight impacts or would involve large investments
with low profitability. Thus, the savings in cargo transportation due to
the energy policies proposed is 620 thousand BOE in 2030, implying a
reduction of 1.89%, mainly for diesel; the model response is supplying
the diesel surplus to the industrial sector. Another option is the cargo
railroad, but it is not recommended because low merchandise volume,
difficulty of Andean mountains conditions and large distances between
main logistics centers all hinder its feasibility. Hence, future studies
should focus on operational efficiency or logistic aspects.
In general, Ecuadorian society must begin a process of economic
transition, based on available resources, considering that its oil horizon
is unfavorable and aggravated by growing energy demand. This tran-
sition should start with policies focused on the use of the available
hydroelectric resources, which, until now, have contributed to reducing
fossil fuel dependences in electricity generation.
According to the model, there will be a 10-year period of electricity
generation surplus; the maximum surplus is 60% for five years, which
reduces to 19% in 2030. The principal cause of this reduction is the
increase in household electricity consumption, due to the introduction
of electric appliances. In the period between 2010 – 2015 the average
household electric consumption was 7,000 GW h. This average in-
creases to 16,000 Gwh in the period between 2025 – 2030.
Therefore, the results evidence the importance of defining eco-
nomic/energy policies to use this available resource, mainly in sectors
that generate added value, focused on the industrialization process, and
not only allocating it to household consumption, which does not create
added value in the domestic economy.
However, the current policy of managing surplus electricity is fo-
cused on regional exports. In considering the extension plans of
neighboring countries, this policy would be affected in the short-term,
which could cause an under-utilization of installed capacity. In addi-
tion, regional energy integration has been little-implemented by gov-
ernments; there are different opportunities, given the complementarity
existing between countries, as well as the existence of common pro-
blems and similar markets.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the financial aid given by CAPES. The
Brazilian coordination for the improvement of Higher Level Education.
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