A Gestão de Ativos como Alavanca

para o Alcance dos Resultados

33° CBMGA – Congresso Brasileiro de Manutenção
e Gestão de Ativos
Antonio Carlos Derani
antonio.derani@bhge.com
+55 11 9 8331 8458

Belo Horizonte, 16 de Outubro de 2018

© 2017 Baker Hughes, a GE company, LLC

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Confidential. Not approval.
to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without
- All prior
rightsapproval.
reserved.
O Futuro Digital

October 25, 2018 2

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Entregando uma Transformação Radical

October 25, 2018 3

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Conceitos Básicos
- Gestão de Ativos (de acordo com ISO 55000)
• Atividades sistemáticas e coordenadas para uma organização realizar a gestão de
forma otimizada e sustentável de seus ativos e sua performance associada, riscos e
custos ao longo do seu ciclo de vida com o objetivo de alcançar seu planejamento
estratégico.
- Ativos (de acordo com ISO 55000)
• Físicos • Intangíveis
• Humanos • Informação
• Financeiros

- KPIs (Key Performance Indicators

• OEE – Overall Equipment Efficiency
- Disponibilidade x Performance x Qualidade

October 25, 2018 4

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 Por que a Gestão de Ativos é tão Importante?

• A Gestão de Ativos permite evitar as surpresas

Motivação 89% das Falhas são
através de monitoramento da condição dos
Aleatórias e não ativos e o uso coordenado e eficiente destas
baseadas em tempo informações.

A Gestão de Ativos, através do Monitoramento de Condição, impacta positivamente os seguintes

quesitos:
• Evitar pardas não planejadas
1 Produção Alcançar ou exceeder • Reduzir tempo nas paradas planejadas
metas de produção por…
• Evitar manutenção não planejada
2 Custo Reduzir custo e • Otimização de Recursos (equipes, ferramentas)
controlar risco • Reduzir sobressalentes
por…
• Avoiding unplanned maintenance
Conformidade • Eliminar surpresas
Diminui risco de • Reducing skilled staff & training
3 Ambiental e de • Mover dados, não pessoas
• Having integrated systems in 1 platform
segurança e ambiental • Monitorar e Controlar Emissões
Segurança • Fewer trips to remote locations
por… • Evitar falhas catastróficas

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 Como os ativos falham? Curva PF
Point where
Can
Determine
that It Is
Failing
GOOD
P

FUNCTIONAL
Point where

HEALTH
Failure Starts
Point of
to Occur
Functional
Failure F
FAILED
TIME

A curva PF ajuda a determinar com que frequência se

deve monitorar um equipamento para identificar
Intervalo Falha
dano com tempo suficiente para possibilitar o reparo
Potencial
Falha Real

A maioria dos Equipamentos não falha

num intervalo previsível.

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Conceitos Básicos
- Estratégias de Manutenção

Information based
Organization & Equipment Reliability

Proactive

Data based
Predictive
(Effectiveness)

Time based
Preventive

Wait until it breaks..

Reactive

$ $ Sources:
Maintenance Cost Expenditures •Society of Maintenance & Reliability
Professionals Survey
(Efficiency) •The Business Case for Reliability
Robert DiStefano, John Schultz

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 Constatação
Gestão de Ativos ≠ Manutenção
• Manutenção:
Manter equipamentos em operação, com planos de manutenção em dia e
custos controlados dentro das expectativas da organização.

• Entretanto, se o objetivo é:
- Otimizar o uso dos ativos durante o ciclo de vida,
- Manter equipes de alta performance
- Reduzir custos de reparo e aumentar a produtividade
- Melhorar as ações de planejamento sobre ativos
- Melhorar de qualidade dos produtos e serviços prestados ao cliente
- Maximizar resultados
- Manter conformidade com Regulamentações
Os processos terão que ser repensados usando técnicas e ferramentas para Gestão de
Ativos.

October 25, 2018 8

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 Implementando a Gestão de Ativos
Integrando Três Pilares
.
Pessoas Processos Sistemas

Sensores Sistemas e
Modernos e Processos de
Conhecimento e
Grandes Trabalho
Experiência
Quantidades de Complexos
Dados

October 25, 2018 9

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 Implementando a Gestão de Ativos
Integrando Três Pilares
.
Estratégia
Criticidade
Modos de Falha Otimização do Plano
Mecanismos de Dano

Mudança da
Estratégia Operação &
Risco (intervalo)
Manutenção
Direcionar o trabalho
(reparo)
Conectar / Colectar
Reevaluação do Dados de Sensores / Alertas /
Risco Eventos
Analytics Dados de Inspeção / Alertas / Eventos
+ Ações Históricos

October 25, 2018 10

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Processo de Gestão de Ativos

Identificação da Atividade Avaliação da Atividade Execução da Atividade

Aquisição de Dados, Definição de Risco, Mudanças Operacionais, Manutenção

Detecção de Anomalia & Diagnóstico Validação da Estratégia Proativa, Intervenção

Gerenciando Risco Operacional

Melhoria Contínua

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Conclusão – Benefícios da Gestão de

October 25, 2018 12

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Confidential. Not to be copied, distributed, or reproduced without prior approval.
Arquitetura de Gestão de Ativos
Componentes de um Sistema APM -
Asset Performance Management Balancear Custos de
Redução de Paradas e Manutenção e Risco
Coleta e Análise de Dados Extensão de Vida do Ativo Operacional

APM Saúde de Máquinas e Gerenciamento de Otimização da

Módulos Equipamentos Confiabilidade Manutenção
“Conexão” “Insights” “Otimização”

Estratégias de
Visão Centralizada, Precisa Diagnóstico, Previsão e Manutenção
APM e Completa do Estado e Ação antes que o Ativo considerando custo,
Capacidades Saúde dos Ativos. Falhe confiabilidade e
performance
Softwares de Diagnóstico e Ferramentas de
Aquisição Analytics: Otimização:
Visualização de Dados de Alta Diagnóstico amplo e profundo, Optimização do Escopo de
através de ferramentas Trabalho
Densidade
especializadas, digital twins

GE Proprietary & Confidential. Only for internal use.

October 25, 2018 15

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16

What is the source of dynamic data

and why the customer need it?

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 Cent Comp Summary

More Refinement

EVM using Static

Indicators
of Dynamic Behavior

New Capability Equivalent

Performance Alerting Seal Capability

Blueprint Library: http://libraries.ge.com/download?fileid=788682691101&entity_id=27002758101&sid=101

RulePak Library: http://libraries.ge.com/foldersIndex.do?entity_id=63636065101&sid=101&SF=1#63636065101

RulePak functional equivalency reproduced with Calc Engine plus SS

Successful code exporting from BN Performance also prototyped

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BOP Pump Example
Pump Suction Press Pump Differential Press
Pump Suction Flow
Pump Suction Temp Pump Differential Temp
Ambient Temp

Motor Current

Lube Oil Discharge

Bearing Temps Bearing Vibrations Recirculation Flow
Temperatures
Inputs Outputs

Pump Discharge Flow

Internals Calculation
Pump Discharge Press

Pump Discharge Temp

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Performance Maps
Bringing Together Time Series Alerting and Detailed Performance Analysis

Time
Trending

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Ferramentas de Análise e Diagnóstico

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The Solution Difference
Multiple Variable, Dynamic Empirical Analysis in Real Time (10 Min Resolution)

Single-sensor analysis or equation based models using traditional thresholds & rules
Alarm
Vibration Condition

Alarm Hi

Vibration

Metal Temp

Speed

Oil Temp

Normal operation Early stages of variation

Few false alarms Alerts before
traditional techniques

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Models Normalize The Data

“Blue is True”
Where Your Data Is

“Green is Good”
Where Your Data Should Be

Deviations from
Healthy Patterns

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Taxonomy of Modeling Techniques

System
1st Principles – Specifies solution
Modeling theory, irrespective of data.
Parametric – Assumes a form for
the solution and fits it to data.
1st Principles Nonparametric – No assumption
Modeling Empirical about solution form, totally data-
Modeling driven.

Design-based
Physics-based
Parametric
Non-
parametric
Kalman Filter
ARMA Similarity Based Modeling
Nonlinear regression Principle Component Analysis
Classical neural networks Support vector machines
Kernel regression

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Differentiated Data Technology

Curve Fitting Pattern Reconstruction

- First Principles Equations - Similarity Based Modeling
- Parametric Modeling - ‘n’ Dimensional State Matrix
- Neural Networks - Variable Based & Auto-Adaptation

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Pattern Recognition Experience

Sensor 1

Sensor 2
Training a Model involves selecting
Sensor 3 representative vectors (or patterns)
Sensor 4
that characterize normal behavior.

Sensor 5

t
Pattern 6
Selected sensor vectors define the Pattern 5
Vector 1
“State Matrix” Pattern 4
Vector 2 D= Pattern 3
Vector 3 Estimates use combinations of Pattern 2
Vector 4 “State Matrix” vectors Pattern 1
Vector 5

Vector 6

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Data Automatically Normalized
Three Sensor Example Illustrates ‘n’ Dimensional Capability

Unique Equipment Context SBM Captures Uniqueness Blue dots =

model
“reference
data”: normal,
healthy
equipment
behavior for
various
operational state

Any Deviation From Expected Is Already In Context

Ongoing model training, no need to re-baseline

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Similarity Based Modeling (SBM)

1. Built on historical data, customized to a particular piece equipment

2. Summarizes normal, healthy equipment behavior

3. Represents many different operational states and ambient

conditions

4. Takes advantage sensor relationships inherent in equipment and

processes

5. Not OEM specific

6. Predicts what the data should be reading, based on the current

operation and its history for this type of operation

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Applying System Knowledge
Combustion Turbine Example

Wheel Space Model

Fuel System Model
Compressor Model Combustion Model

Mechanical Model

Lube Oil Model

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Overcome the challenges
Alerts based on residuals

The dynamic band takes into consideration:

❖ Historical behavior
❖ Operational States
❖ System Conditions
❖ Ambient temp etc…
Fixed alarm level

ESTIMATE ACTUAL
ALERTS INCIDENT
ACTUAL – ESTIMATE = RESIDUAL

Positive threshold
Dynamic band
Negative threshold

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Diagnostic advisory

Key features
•A notification of a change in equipment behavior that
conforms to a fault pattern.

matches a fault pattern

persistence
significant deviation
equipment is operating

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Fault patterns are a signature set of
behavior specific to an equipment failure
mode

Equipment failure modes

Seal Pressure Loss Cooling Loss Bearing Problem
Sensors

Bearing Temperature

Bearing Vibration

Lube Oil Out

Temperature
Fault pattern
Seal Pressure
current match
sensor
behavior
Very High

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 Significant deviation

Residual deviations indicate un-modeled behavior

Positive and
Negative Residual
Thresholds

Residual
(Actual-Estimate) 32

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Data selection for each asset

33

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Data selection

34

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Diagnosing compressor fouling

Diagnostics

35

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39

What is the source of dynamic data

and why the customer need it?

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16 variables

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System 1 RulePaks
Extractions of High Frequency Behavior
• Subsynch nX Orbit Shapes
• Subsynch First nX Ellipticity Ratio
• Subsynch Second nX Ellipticity Ratio
• Subsynch Third nX Ellipticity Ratio
• Subsynch nX Precession Directions
• Subsynch First nX Precession Direction
• Subsynch Second nX Precession Direction
• Subsynch Third nX Precession Direction
• Subsynch nX Forward Vibration Ratios
• Subsynch First nX Forward Vibration Ratio
• Subsynch Second nX Forward Vibration Ratio
• Subsynch Third nX Forward Vibration Ratio
• Subsynch nX Frequency Ratios
• Subsynch First nX Frequency Ratio
• Subsynch Second nX Frequency Ratio
• Subsynch Third nX Frequency Ratio
• Subsynch nX Frequency Fractions
• Subsynch First nX Frequency Fraction
• Subsynch Second nX Frequency Fraction
• Subsynch Third nX Frequency Fraction
• Subsynch nX Fwd/Rev Min/Max Amp Vibration Ratios
• Subsynch First nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 1
• Subsynch Second nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 1
• Subsynch Third nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 1
• Subsynch First nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 2
• Subsynch Second nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 2
• Subsynch Third nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 2
• Subsynch First nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 1
• Subsynch Second nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 1
• Subsynch Third nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 1
• Subsynch First nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 2
• Subsynch Second nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 2
• Subsynch Third nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 2
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• Speed to Resonance Frequency Ratio
• Bearing Temperature to Max Ratio
• Slow Roll Threshold Ratio
• Slow Roll Amp Ratio
• Relative phase
• Max Direct Amplitude Ratio
• 1X Max Short Trend Ratio
• 1X Amplitude Setpoint Ratio
• Synchronous Vibration Ratio (per bearing)
• Vertical 3X Amplitude Ratio
• Horizontal 3X Amplitude Ratio
• Vertical 5X Amplitude Ratio
• Horizontal 5X Amplitude Ratio
• Vertical 7X Amplitude Ratio
• Horizontal 7X Amplitude Ratio
• Vertical Amplitude Modulation Magnitude
• Vertical Phase Modulation Magnitude
• Horizontal Amplitude Modulation Magnitude
Horizontal or reproduced
Phase Modulation without prior approval.
Magnitude
Extended Vibration Monitoring (EVM)
Your Data Advanced Bearing Predictive Empirical Modeling
Rotor Vibration Calculations
RPM
Bearing Metal Temp from System 1
Bearing Oil Inlet Temp Phase Unwrap (0-360o Discontinuity)
Bearing Oil Outfall Temp Amplitude, Phase:
Compensated
Advanced Vibration Forward
Overall Reverse
1X Amplitude, Phase Major, Minor 1X Axis
2X Amplitude, Phase Orbit Procession
½X Amplitude, Phase Ellipticity Ratio
DC Gap Orbit Shape
Process High 1X Synchronous Ratio
Load Probe Check
Inlet Temp, Pressure Slow Roll Vector
Outlet Temp, Pressure
D Temp, Pressure
Flow
Journal Bearing Diagnostic
Misalignment
Radial Preload
High Synchronous Vibration
Sub-synchronous Rub
Rotor Bow

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Performance Maps
Bringing Together Time Series Alerting and Detailed Performance Analysis

Time
Trending

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