2018 13th IEEE International Conference on Industry Applications Mo5TrackD.

Use of virtual load curves for the training of neural

networks for residential electricity consumption
forecasting applications
Haroldo L. M. do Amaral
Laboratory of Power Systems and
Intelligent Techniques – LSISPOTI
University of São Paulo – USP
São Paulo – SP, Brazil
haroldo.amaral@usp.br
Thiago X. da S. Palma
Laboratory of Power Systems and
Intelligent Techniques – LSISPOTI
São Paulo State University - UNESP
Bauru – SP, Brazil
txspalma@gmail.com
André N. de Souza
Laboratory of Power Systems and
Intelligent Techniques – LSISPOTI
São Paulo State University - UNESP
Bauru – SP, Brazil
andre.souza@unesp.br
Alexander da S. Maranho
Laboratory of Power Systems and
Intelligent Techniques – LSISPOTI
São Paulo State University - UNESP
Bauru – SP, Brazil
alexandermaranho@hotmail.com
Danilo S. Gastaldello
Laboratory of Power Systems and
Intelligent Techniques – LSISPOTI
Sacred Heart University - USC
Bauru – SP, Brazil
danilo.gastaldello@usp.br
João P. Papa
Laboratory of Power Systems and
Intelligent Techniques – LSISPOTI
São Paulo State University - UNESP
Bauru – SP, Brazil
joao.papa@unesp.br

Abstract—Smart grids are becoming increasingly closer to
consumers, especially residential consumers, bringing with
them a wide range of possibilities. The level of information
obtained on a smart grid will be much higher when compared
to a traditional network and at this point, more informed
consumers tend to consume more efficiently, bringing benefits
to themselves and to the system. An interesting fact for control
within a residence is forecasting consumption, allowing the
consumer to know in advance how much to consume up to a
certain period. Artificial neural networks are one of several
methods used to forecast time series, however, require a high
volume of historical data for the training of the network, given
that these may not be accessible or even exist. At this point, the
objective of this work is to evaluate the use of load curves
obtained through computational tools for the pre-training of
artificial neural networks used in the consumption forecast. A
tool is used to create random load curves according to the
region and socioeconomic characteristics. The load curves are
transformed into cumulative consumption curves and used as
training vectors of the artificial neural network. The results of
the tests were very promising, they showed that the pre-
training with the virtual data makes possible the forecast of the
time series even in the absence of real data for the training,
showing that the methodology developed has great potential of
application in works related to the forecast consumption.
Keywords—load forecasting, load curves, artificial neural
networks, smart grids
I. INTRODUCTION
The smart grids are the focus of the most diverse studies
and discussions in the academic environment for years,
however, the theme has become known to the general public
especially with the advancement of complementary energy
sources, such as photovoltaic generation and the
development of several pilot projects around the world.
Some of these projects have focused on energy efficiency
achieved through smart grids, especially when achieved by
residential consumers since in most countries consumption
related to the residential sector account for a large percentage
of total consumption. An example is a project conducted in
Australia between 2009 and 2013 which achieved a
reduction in consumption between 4-10%, another project
carried out in 2007 in California (USA) led to reduced
consumption between 11-13% [1].
One of the pillars of smart grids is related to provide
more information to consumers, allowing them to actively
respond in real time network changes [2], in addition to
maintaining its consumption within the limits of your budget.
Much of the improvement achieved in relation to energy
efficiency is related to the behavioral changes achieved by
consumers, originated from the new information and data
provided by the new technologies associated with Smart
grids [3].
Many researchers agree that smart grids can provide
much higher levels of energy efficiency [4]–[6]. Better
informed consumers can make better decisions regarding the
use of their loads or even with respect to the management of
complementary resources, such as the generation of a
photovoltaic system. These actions generate local benefits at
the consumer level in addition to the systemic level since
resources can be saved, minimizing the associated losses.
At this point, it is very important that consumers are
informed about the Smart grids, its general concept and
especially about the benefits that can be achieved from their
use.
Many consumers believe that the applied policies and
technologies bring explicit benefits only to energy utilities,
and it is not clear what direct benefit can be achieved by the
consumer [4]. New features and functionalities should be
used as a driver vector in favor of smart grids, making clear
the benefits that can be achieved by consumers and thereby
minimizing the resistance originated in the transition process
between technologies.
Through the databases we can observe that several types
of research have been developed with a focus on the
technologies, whether related to communication protocols,
mainly in this emerging moment of the subject Internet of
Things (IoT), cybersecurity and data privacy. In addition,

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 there are many studies related to the impact of
complementary sources on power quality and stability of the
system as well as the impact of microgrids. On the other
hand, we have seen a smaller number of studies focused on
the energy efficiency of smart grids, their technologies, and
new possibilities and their relationship with this new concept
and associated technologies.
The forecast consumption is an important information for
residential consumers, enabling to plan and control their
charges in order to keep the total consumption within budget
[7]. Moreover, since 2015 we have seen an increasing
research related to consumption forecast within the IEEE
databases.
The objective of this study is to evaluate the use of load
curves obtained using computational tools for pre-training
neural networks used in forecasting consumption.
II. CONSUMPTION FORECAST
Within the energy sector, consumption forecast is mainly
used for long-term management process of the electrical
system, allowing you to choose the best management
strategies, investment, and expansion of the system
according to the possible scenarios. In addition, time series
forecasting is widely used in the financial sector, stock
management, price review, and climate forecasting.
Its direct application to the final consumer, is not a
traditional theme, especially in the residential consumer, but
presents great potential regarding the energy efficiency that
can be achieved in a consumer unit. Access to continuously
updated data on their consumption and forecasting habits for
the next period allows the consumer to better manage their
resources, controlling their loads and even energy resources
from complementary sources such as a photovoltaic
generation.
We can compare this process as a form of continuous
consumer education that is directly benefited by the
behavioral changes themselves. When this behavior is
extended to most consumer units, a significant improvement
in the energy efficiency indexes is expected by reducing
consumption and minimizing losses associated with the
whole process.
Several techniques are used in time series forecasting
process, among the most common can be cited statistical
methods, the use of artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic,
and Neuro Fuzzy [8], [9].
The study developed in [7] presented the use of artificial
neural networks focusing on the consumption forecast of a
consumer unit based on the historical series of data, that is,
the consumption history. The results showed the viability of
the method through the tool used.
Two points were evident in this study: the first is related
to the size of the time series. Artificial neural network
training to predict longer periods depends on large time
series, with many samples, and with considerable time
duration; the second point is related to the initial offset in the
training vector and how the network behaves when trying to
predict a series of data that does not start with the same
offset.
Of the two points raised, the size of the historical series
can be seen as primordial. At this point, we find a major
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barrier related to difficult access or absence of such data,
especially when related to the residential consumer.
Since most consumers still use electromechanical meters,
the only available historical record is related to the total
accumulated monthly of previous months. In Brazil, these
data are obligatorily available in the light bill but do not
satisfy the needs for the training of a neural network,
especially if the focus is to make forecasts within the period
of one month.
III. METHODOLOGY
The study developed in [10], [11] presents the
development of a methodology for creating virtual load
curves of residential consumers according to their
socioeconomic characteristics.
A computational tool able to generate several random
load curves for a particular type of consumer has been
developed, taking into account the area of the residence, the
number of people in the house, socioeconomic data, age
groups and other characteristics that directly influence
possession and consumption habits. It is important to
emphasize that although there is a pattern of consumption by
type of consumer, each consumer uses the energy in a unique
way influenced by the search of comfort, thus, the tool can
generate very distinct curves for the same profile, which
makes the quite complex individual analysis problem.
Basically, the algorithm for constructing the virtual load
curves can be divided into 3 steps, being: 1 - The user
chooses the characteristics of the resident family: number of
residents, age, economic class, region where they live, size of
residence; 2 - Draw of the equipment: according to family
characteristics is mounted an equipment ownership vector,
moreover, are drawn the possibilities of use of each device
on; 3 - Assembly of the daily load curve of equipment: later
they are summed to fill the daily load curve of the family.
The values of the possibilities of use are stored for that
family since they represent a habit of consumption. The
adoption of the possibilities of use for each equipment
ensures that each simulated load curve will have a different
behavior, however, on average the behaviors follow the
characteristic pattern of the target residence. Fig. 1, Fig. 2
and Fig. 3 shows the development steps of the algorithm.
Fig. 1. Step 1 - Family feature

Fig. 2. Step 2 – Possession of equipment
Fig. 3. Step 3 – Load curve of each device
Despite the random characteristics of each of the
generated curves, the average of several curves refers to the
behavior of the load curves provided by PROCEL [12], as
can be seen in the Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 below, comparing the
average curve generated by the algorithm with the PROCEL
curves.
Fig. 4. Comparison between average curves - Central West
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Fig. 5. Comparison between average curves - Northeast
Ideally the network training should be performed with the
actual data of the own consuming unit, however, in the
absence of these data, curves generated for the same
customer pattern can be used as training vectors of the neural
network allowing the prediction even in absence of long
historical series. It can also be considered as a pre-training
standard, which can be updated according to the presence of
actual data.
The methodology applied in this study consisted of using
the simulated load curves for the southeast region of Brazil
and from them to create the consumption curves for a period
of one month. The cumulative consumption of one month
served as a training vector of the neural network responsible
for performing the consumption forecast.
At the end of the training, validation tests were
performed on different stretches of the original consumption
curve, evaluating their behavior. We also conducted tests on
other load curves as well as real data for the same region,
allowing us to compare with the results obtained in [7].
IV. TESTS
To perform the tests load curves were generated for the
southeast region. In total, approximately 300 load curves
with 2880 samples each were generated, each of these curves
symbolizing a different consumer. The data of each
consumer has 96 points per day, according to the standard
curve, which corresponds to the curve of 30 consecutive days
with intervals of 15 minutes between each sample, where the
value of each sample is equivalent to the consumption in
kW.
For the artificial neural network training, the cumulative
consumption curve is necessary. This curve is obtained by
integrating the load curve of the period. After this process,
the resulting curve will present the consumption behavior in
kWh within one month for the chosen consumer. The result
of the curve for distinct consumers will be different due to
the random characteristic of the algorithm, which seeks to
simulate the differences between consumers in the same
region and class. The result of this procedure is presented in
Fig. 6 below, with the load curve and cumulative
consumption curve for the one-week period.
 Fig. 6. Load Curve vs Consumption Curve (One week) Fig. 8. Second test

The integrated curve is then used as the training vector
for the artificial neural network used for prediction. To make
comparisons possible, it was decided to adopt the same setup
used in [7]. We used the Nonlinear Autoregressive Model
Network (NAR) of Matlab also keeping up the number of
neurons in the hidden layer 5 and 5 delays, values obtained
empirically.
The training and testing process were performed using
the Neural Network Time Series tool. The integrated
consumption curve was used as training vector, generating at
the end of the process a mean-squared error (MSE) that
varied between 1.10x10-2 and 8.85x10-3, corresponding
values with those obtained in [7].
The first test involved using their own training vectors for
prediction. Using the previous metric, an MSE of 1.00x10-2
was recorded. Fig. 7 below shows the test result.
The curve shows that the network was able to predict
approximately 2/3 of the period and at this point started to
register a smaller output than the real one. Interestingly, the
point where the prediction fails to keep up with the
cumulative consumption curve is about 250 kWh, near the
maximum value achieved consumption in training vector, as
can be seen in Fig. 7.
For the third test, another consumption curve was
selected, in this case looking for a curve that had greater
cumulative consumption at the end of the month. The chosen
curve reaches the end of the month an approximate
consumption of 800 kWh, more than 3 times the final value
of the training vector. In this case, it was decided to start the
forecast from the middle of the curve. The result is shown in
Fig. 9 below.

Fig. 9. Third test

Fig. 7. First test

The result shows that the forecast was below expected in
the whole series. The starting point of the forecast exceeds
From the curve, it can be verified that the behavior of the
the maximum value reached by the training vector. The
curve was followed throughout its length, with absolute
initial offset was subtracted from all samples, simulating a
errors lower than 1 kWh in the whole period. An interesting
curve starting at zero. The result of the test can be seen in
point to emphasize is that this error tends to have a lower
Fig. 10.
weight as the accumulated consumption increase, not being
the best comparison metric, however, we can consider this
absolute error as a rather low value in view of the focus of
the application.
A new consumption curve was chosen randomly, and the
second test was performed. An MSE of 176.00 was recorded.
Fig. 8 below shows the test result.

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Fig. 10. Test four – Removing initial offset
As can be observed, the offset removal made it possible
to predict the series, with errors only reappearing when
exceeding a value higher than the training vector, as in
previous tests.
In the four conducted tests were used curves created by
the algorithm. The focus of the simulated curves is to allow a
pre-training to be applied to real data. For the fifth test, we
used real data collected by the smart meter developed in [13].
The largest series recorded with the device was used,
accounting for 26 days of storage. The test result is shown in
Fig. 11.
Fig. 11. Test with real data
The result of the test shows that the training of the
artificial neural network through simulated curves is
efficient, being able to follow the behavior of a real curve.
This is an important result, validating the central objective of
this work.
V. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
The tests presented interesting results highlighting the
potential of the methodology.
Through the performed tests it was verified that the
selected artificial neural network loses the ability to follow
the consumption curve when its output exceeds the
maximum values used during the training stage.
At this point, two different possible approaches emerge:
the first consists of using a larger training vector, with more
samples, increasing the maximum limit of the forecast; a
second possible approach is to use an error indicator, such as
the MSE, to flag that the forecast is no longer following the
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actual curve, at this point the general offset of the samples
can be removed to be added back to the end of the forecast,
reestablishing the real value of consumption.
The last approach can be used alone or even with a
training vector with more samples, always verifying the error
of the forecast.
It is important to note that the range of the training and
test samples with the actual data is different. The curve used
in the training has samples at home for 15 minutes, while the
data from the smart meter have intervals of 20 seconds
between each sample. Although the huge difference between
the test result was quite promising. This behavior has been
noted in the previous testing by downsampling of the training
data, as presented in [7].
Through the use of specific characteristics of the
consumer, unit becomes possible to create load curves that
more closely resemble their actual behavior, improving the
performance of the applied methodology.
In a real application, the device responsible for
forecasting can come with several consumption profiles,
allowing even without actual data the forecast to be possible.
In addition, it is possible for the network to be re-trained
from scratch from collected data or even re-training from
actual data.
The presentation of the results has a very large weight,
influencing whether they will be used or not by the
consumer. It is important that information be simple to
understand by the consumer, making it a truly useful
information in your day-to-day life.
A simple and interesting strategy is to present a graph of
the accumulated consumption curve containing the last
period beyond the curve predicted for the next period. After
the last forecast period it is possible to present in the same
graph the actual curve against the predicted curve, indicating
if the consumer has saved or spent more energy based on the
forecast.
The same idea can be applied to compare the
consumption of several periods indicating the tendency of
economy or not. This process of "gamification" tends to
engage the consumer in seeking better results.
This information can be made available through an
interface connected to a control center of a smart home,
through a webpage generated system or even through
smartphone apps, making it easier to access information.
As a continuation of this study seeks to implement the
methodology using the TensorFlow library, developed by
Google. An opensource library for machine learning which
showed strong growth and acceptance since its launch in
2015. Its use makes possible the implementation of forecast
data from a single board computer (SBC) as the Raspberry
Pi. It can be the home energy management system (HEMS)
of a smart home, being connected to the smart meter of the
residence.
In addition, we try to test the recurrent neural networks to
predict time series of consumption, comparing their results
with the methods already studied.
Depending on the method used, the training can be
performed on a single board computer (SBC) or even in the
 cloud, so that the forecast can be performed by a device with
less processing capacity like the smart meter.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de
Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil
(CAPES) - Finance Code 001.
We thank FAPESP for the support given to this research,
FAPESP Project 2017 / 02286-0.
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