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A model of coronavirus Sars-CoV-2. A fast-evolving virus can be harder to make vaccines against because by the time the vaccine
has been developed, the parts of the virus the immune system attacks might have changed.
Photograph: Jens Schlueter/AFP via Getty Images
As the coronavirus spreads around the world, there are concerns that it will mutate into a form
that is more transmissible, more dangerous or both, potentially making the global health crisis
even worse. What do we know about the way the virus is evolving?
The spike mutations are rare at the moment, but Martin Hibberd, a professor of emerging
infectious diseases and a senior author on the study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, said their
emergence highlighted the need for global surveillance of the virus. That will reveal whether the
new mutations help it to spread and whether vaccines may need to be redesigned.
In another preliminary study, scientists at Sheffield University and Los Alamos National
Laboratory in New Mexico found similar mutations in the spike protein which the authors claim
may help the infection to spread. While that is possible, other scientists believe it is too early to
know whether any of the mutations are helping the virus thrive.
Prof Nick Loman at the University of Birmingham said that all coronaviruses are very similar and
that viruses with particular mutations can rise up in different areas for a range of reasons. A major
factor is which virus gains a foothold first, the so-called founder effect, which may come down to
one person’s travel plans rather than any adaptation of the virus. “From the point of view of people
who are understandably concerned about this pandemic, I’m sure it will not matter which
mutations the virus has. It’s not a good virus either way,” he said. “We look to see if any of the
mutations change behaviour and we don’t have any evidence for that.”