Thunderstorm​ Forecast ​

09/05/20

Synoptic Chart 12:00 UTC

Ireland lies under a slack airmass, with a blocking anticyclone of 1032 hPa centred
70km north of Iceland and a weak low pressure of 1005 hPa located approx 1000km
west of the Iberian peninsula. An approaching cold front currently over Northern
Scotland and weak troughs edging northwards through the Bay of Biscay will form an
atmospheric squeeze across Ireland and the UK. Diurnal heating, with afternoon
temperatures in excess of 22 degrees Celsius, will generate instability in the lower
atmosphere, with favourable CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and LI
(Lifted Index) values resulting in the development of thunderstorms through the early
afternoon and persisting into the late evening. The areas most at risk of seeing
thunderstorm activity include much of East and Northeast Connacht, Inland parts of
Munster, the Irish Midlands, and parts of South Ulster. Thunderstorm activity is
expected to commence at 14:00 UTC, peaking between 16:00-18:00, before gradually
weakening between 19:00-21:00.

Valentia Tephigram

Thunderstorm Parameters
Thunderstorm activity can be gauged from three parameters derived from the
Skew-t/Log-P chart.
These are the K index - a measure of thunderstorm coverage; the Lifted index LI; a
measure of the probable severity of a storm; and the
TT index; a measure of the likelihood of a storm occurring.

The K-Index is worked out from the equation: K = T850 + Td850 + Td700 - T700 – T500

The Lifted index is worked out from the equation: LI = T500 - Tp850

Tp850 Tp is the temperature of a parcel of air lifted to 500mb moist adiabatically from
the surface lifting condensation level.

The TT Index is given by the equation TT = T850 + Td850 – 2T500

Results for Valentia Tephigram

L Index Valentia
-22-(19) = -3

K Index Valentia
2+8+(-6)-(-3)-(-22) = 29

TT Index Valentia
2+8 -2(-22) = 54

Our mathematical results point towards the development of widely scattered

thunderstorms, with the potential for those storms to become severe for a time, with the
likelihood of thunderstorms developing being rather strong.

The use of Tephigrams when forecasting thunderstorms is crucial in developing

accurate forecasts for a given region. As a meteorological forecaster I frequently use
such formulas to determine the associated risks of severe weather developing.

Using the above data we can then develop a forecast warning, as indicated in the page
below, whereby we can determine the severity and the spatial coverage of where those
particular storms are most likely to occur.
Severe Weather Forecast Map
Impacts

Precipitation
Heavy falls of rain falling onto compacted soil in a short space of time will lead to the
rapid accumulation of water in some locations, with localised flooding a possibility. Agin
the areas most at risk are those under the orange category warning. Rainfall totals in
some areas may exceed 20mm in 2 hours.

Lightning
Thunderstorms are one of the natural hazards we experience in Ireland. Today’s
thunderstorms have the potential to produce cloud to ground lightning strikes, with the
slight risk of some power disruption in the affected areas. Refrain from using landlines
during thunderstorms.

Hail
Hail often accompanies thunderstorms and today’s storms have the potential to produce
some hail, which can often lead to difficult driving conditions.