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Report
Moree jobs,
less waste
Potential
al for job creation
on
through hi
higher rates of
recycling
ng in the UK andd EU
More jobs, less waste
Executive Summary
As the UK and the rest of Europe attempt to deliver if much higher targets for recycling
recover from the global financial crisis and and reuse were implemented. This has
the consequent recession, we are entering taken account of potential incremental direct
a period in which Governments are urgently employment, indirect, and induced
seeking solutions to curtail the size of the employment but has not quantified
public sector, whilst encouraging innovation displaced jobs in sectors less in demand in
and enterprise by a hesitant private sector. the new low carbon economy, such as
landfill.
At the same time, despite the failure of
Copenhagen, the imperative of climate On a European level, if a target of 70% for
change and the need to advance to a low recycling of key materials was met,
carbon economy remains undimmed and conservative estimates suggest that across
urgent. the EU27 up to 322,000 direct jobs could
be created in recycling an additional 115
Our view is that these challenges can be million tonnes of glass, paper, plastic,
met together. We have an opportunity to ferrous and non ferrous metals, wood,
create valuable and sustainable ‘green jobs’ textiles and biowaste. These jobs would
and this is even more important in the have knock on effects in down and
present economic situation. At a time when upstream sectors and the wider
overall government spending on the economy and could create 160,900 new
environment is set to fall, the recycling and indirect jobs and 80,400 induced jobs.
reuse sector can make a major contribution The total potential is therefore for more
to the green economy. than 563,000 net new jobs.
In this report, we have identified the For the United Kingdom, if an ambitious but
contribution of the recycling sector and its achievable recycling target of 70% for
supply chain over the last decade and municipal waste was set and achieved by
tracked the growth of employment in this 2025, then conservative estimates suggest
sector as recycling rates and tonnages have that across the UK this could create
increased. We have examined previous 29,400 new direct jobs in recycling,
studies from the UK, EU and United States 14,700 indirect jobs in supply chains and
to establish trends and identify 7,300 induced jobs in the wider economy
inconsistencies. There are limitations both relative to 2006. Of these potential 51,400
on the quality and quantity of data on total new jobs some 42,300 might be in
employment and waste generation both in England with an estimated 4,700 in
the UK and EU. However, we have used the Scotland, 2,600 in Wales and 1,800 in
best available data and a transparent and Northern Ireland.
defensible methodology to estimate the
potential employment creation contribution Projections for achieving similar rates of
the resource management industry could recycling for commercial and industrial (C&I)
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waste (albeit on less robust data) suggest it should be seen firmly in the context of a
that achieving the 70% target could lead sustainable development approach in which
to at least an additional 18,800 total new economic, social and environmental
C&I recycling related jobs - on top of considerations work together to create a
municipal recycling related jobs - of greener economy based on quality of life
which 10,800 would be direct, 5,400 whilst using resources more effectively. In
indirect and 2,700 induced. Again these the new green economy, better use of
would mainly be in England but at least materials formerly seen as waste, creating
6,500 would be in Scotland, 3,600 in jobs closer to home in many instances and
Wales and 2,450 in Northern Ireland. retaining value in the local and national
economy should be seen as important
All too often, the employment and social policy objectives.
dimensions are overlooked when
considering waste and resource policy. This At the meeting point between resource
study focuses exclusively on the potential efficiency and economic recovery, it is
for employment creation through higher time for ‘more jobs, less waste’.
levels of recycling and reuse of resources in
order to provide an additional contribution to
the debate on future waste policy. However,
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The UK has experienced the deepest There are opportunities to contribute to all of
economic recession since the Second these objectives by increasing the rate of
World War and as a direct consequence recycling of key materials across Europe.
unemployment figures have reached 2.51 Friends of the Earth’s study ‘Gone to Waste’
million in early 2010 (ONS, 2010). The (FOE, 2009) estimated that around half of
economy is now facing huge pressures for all the key recyclables available in the
efficiency and demands to reduce waste on municipal and commercial and industrial
every level. The Coalition Government has (C&I) waste streams in 2004 were still being
stated its intention to decarbonise the sent for disposal. If this material had been
economy and support the creation of new recycled it would have saved 148 million
green jobs and technologies alongside a tonnes CO2eq emissions and would have
broader strategy of ‘rebalancing’ the had a minimum potential monetary value of
economy by reducing the size of the public €5.25 billion. Across Europe, there is now a
sector and focusing attention on the growing recognition of the job opportunities
expansion of employment in the private to be realised from this valuable resource. If
sector. Specifically in “Our Programme for this waste was recycled, reused or
Government” (HMG, 2010), the Coalition remanufactured it could provide the basis
Government has stated an intention to work for an expanded recycling and resource
towards a ‘zero waste’ economy and management industry, creating many more
encourage councils to pay people to ‘green jobs’ in reprocessing, sorting and
recycle. It also intends to encourage a huge collecting of recyclables.
increase in energy from waste through
anaerobic digestion. This short desk research study has
attempted to quantify - using a clear and
Europe’s Vision 2020 (European defensible methodology - the potential jobs
Commission, 2010) for Europe’s social that could be created through increasing the
market economy for the 21st century recovery and reuse of resources beyond the
recognises the need for a strategy to help 50% target currently set by the Waste
Europe emerge from the economic crisis as Framework Directive (European
a smart, sustainable and inclusive economy Commission, 2008) and directing waste
with high levels of employment, productivity away from the residual waste stream. The
and social cohesion through three mutually analysis has been undertaken in the context
reinforcing priorities – smart growth, of the ‘New Austerity’ reflecting current and
sustainable growth and inclusive growth. A projected depressed economic growth
‘Resource efficient Europe’ is one of seven rates, constraints on public spending and
headline targets in order to help decouple strategies to promote the growth of ‘green
economic growth from the use of resources economies’ and ‘green jobs’.
and support the shift towards a low carbon
economy. The primary focus of the work is on the UK
and EU27 municipal waste streams. C&I
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and Construction, Demolition and efficients for jobs per thousand tonnes of
Excavation (CD&E) are also covered, but to material and jobs multipliers derived from
a lesser extent, due to the limited and often other studies. It is intended as an illustration
inconsistent data available for these waste of the order of magnitude of the opportunity
streams. for jobs through higher recycling targets
rather than as a definitive statement.
It should be noted that this study is a first
attempt, using existing data sources and co-
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While there are many gaps in availability of (Ernst and Young, 2006), of which an
data and inconsistencies in methodology, estimated 0.12 million are in the UK (ONS,
studies and data from the United States 2010). The definition of the sector is not
(US), European Union (EU) and United standardised but in different studies is taken
Kingdom (UK) show that recycling to include some or all of the activities in
contributes significantly to the economy Figure 1. With the exception of the UK, data
through Gross Value Added, tax revenues on employment are not regularly reported
and by providing jobs. Current estimates are but have been estimated in one-off studies,
of more than a million jobs in the US (US of which the US national studies are the
EPA, 2002) and 1.8 million in the EU27 most comprehensive.
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United States
The US generates 254 million tonnes of people at 56,000 public and private facilities
municipal waste a year (2007) of which 85 in 2001 (US EPA, 2002). In addition to the
million tonnes (33.4%) is recovered for economic activity of the recycling and reuse
recycling and composting (US EPA, 2008). industry itself, other economic activity is
Nationally the recycling sector was supported because the industry purchases
estimated to generate US$236 billion in goods and services from other types of
turnover and directly employ over 1.1 million business establishments (such as office
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supply companies, accounting, legal, instance a study in Iowa found that for every
building and landscape maintenance firms, job created in the recyclables processing
etc.). This is known as ‘indirect’ sector, an additional job is created
employment. In addition employees of the elsewhere in the state.
recycling and reuse industry (and
In the US, paper and steel mills, plastics
employees in other businesses that support
converters and iron and steel foundries
the industry) support another round of
account for 50% of all recycling industry
economic activity when they spend their
employees (UNEP, ILO, IOE, ITUC, 2008).
wages in the economy. This is known as
Remanufacturing is also becoming a major
‘induced’ employment.
business opportunity in areas such as
In the US, for every direct job created motor-vehicle components, aircraft parts,
across the sector (which includes recycling compressors, electrical and data
manufacturing – the most difficult group of communication equipment, office furniture,
activities to define), a further 1.2 ‘indirect’ vending machines, photocopiers, and laser
jobs and 1.3 ‘induced’ jobs were created in toner cartridges. According to an industry
the wider economy. Regional and individual study (Remanufacturing Institute, 2003) the
state studies (CASCADIA, 2009) and sector was a $40 billion business employing
(Seldman, 2006) show a similar picture. For some 480,000 people by 2003.
Table 1: Estimated direct, indirect and induced jobs in the US recycling sector, 2001
Recycling
759.7 1124.9 1237.1 3121.7
manufacturing
Source: (R.W.Beck Inc , 2001) based on a large scale survey of the sector
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European Union
The EU27 generated 260 million tonnes of However, a study for the European
municipal waste (2008) of which 107 million Commission (Ernst and Young, 2006)
tonnes (41%) were being recycled building on a previous study (Ecotec, 2002)
(Eurostat, 2010a). A study of the calculated likely 2004 employment in the
composition and recycling of municipal and pollution management and resource
commercial and industrial waste streams management sectors in an enlarged EU
(Prognos et al, 2008) suggests that C&I and (EU27). The previous study provided data
CD&E wastes accounted for a further 150 for EU15 member states for 1999. The two
million tonnes. studies identified a pollution management
sector (which includes waste management)
Given the very different recycling practices worth €145 billion in addition to a resource
across the EU27 in terms of labour intensity, management sector (including materials
investment in automated sorting equipment recycling) worth €82 billion in 2004.
and the sophistication of materials recovery, Employment in the sectors was estimated
separation, and processing and the different on the basis of environmental expenditure -
combinations of local authorities, private broken down by Capital (CAPEX) and
companies, community and third sector Operating (OPEX) expenditure – and
organisations involved, there is no reported assumptions about wage costs, GDP,
data on employment trends in the sector population, the Consumer Price Index and
and no single tally for the number of jobs in Exchange rates. Together the sectors
recycling, reuse and remanufacturing. provided 3.4 million full time equivalent
(FTE) jobs, of which an
Box 1: Employment in the paper recycling sector
estimated 1.2 million direct
Although employment data for paper recycling are generally included jobs were associated with
within general recycling employment (including glass, steel, aluminium collecting, disposal and
and plastic, etc) specific data are available for the US where the recovery of waste. A further
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that 150,000 people quarter of a million ‘indirect
are employed in paper recycling and remanufacturing while a further jobs’ (in up- and down-
1,932,000 are employed in general recycling collection and processing, stream businesses
of which some 54% is paper. An extremely rough estimate of those supported by operating
jobs attributed to paper could be calculated by weight. In 2006, paper expenditure of waste and
comprised 44 million out of 81.8 million tons, or 53.7 % of all recycled recycling businesses) were
materials. Using this figure, a rough estimate for the number of paper identified (Table 2).
collectors and processors would add another 103,500 people for a
total of 253,500. This is approximately one-quarter to one-fifth of the Growth in employment in
entire U.S. recycling industry. Similar or slightly higher employment the waste management
figures would be expected for the European Union, which recycles sector in the EU15 appears
more paper than the United States: 52.5 million tons in 2004 and 58.2 to have fallen by about
million tons in 2006. In 2000, 9,400 jobs in paper reprocessing were 0.7% per annum between
reported in the United Kingdom (WasteWatch). 1999 and 2004 but
Source: (UNEP, ILO, IOE, ITUC., 2008)
employment in recycled
materials grew rapidly at a
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rate of up to 7% a year over the same It should be noted that one of the limitations
period. of both the US and EU studies to date is the
limited attention given to the role of exports
According to the same study nearly 80% of of recyclables. Both the US and the EU
total direct jobs were in the EU15 countries, countries have expanded paper and plastics
with Germany, France, Poland and the UK recycling through growth in export,
accounting for almost two thirds of particularly to China. While past
employment in the sector. Employment is employment studies have focused on
particularly high as a percentage of the domestic jobs, future expansion of recycling
workforce in Austria, Denmark, Estonia and which partially relies on exporting recyclate
Slovenia. In Germany the waste and could create overseas jobs at the expense
recycling sector is bigger than either steel or of US or EU based employment
telecommunications. opportunities. It follows therefore that the
In 2000, the Product-Life Institute in Geneva more opportunities are made for ‘closed
(UNEP, ILO, IOE, ITUC, 2008) estimated loop’ recycling within the EU, the fewer jobs
that the remanufacturing sector in the EU are likely to migrate to other countries.
accounted for about 4% of the region’s GDP
but there are no estimates for employment
in the sector.
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United Kingdom
The UK generated 33.4 million tonnes of include the remanufacturing sector – such a
municipal waste in 2008, of which 12.2 large contributor in the US – but do include
million tonnes (36.8%) was recycled (Defra, wider waste collection and disposal. A
2010a; SEPA, 2010; Welsh Assembly previous study (Waste Watch, 1999)
Government, 2010a; Northern Ireland estimated that – including 500 jobs in the
Environment Agency, 2010). Best available third sector – the collection, sorting and
data from the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) reprocessing of household recyclable
2008 (ONS, 2010) suggests that this in turn materials accounted for 17,400 jobs in 1999
generated about 118,000 jobs in waste (Table 4), equivalent to about a third of the
management businesses (including total waste management sector. Table 4
collection, recycling and sale for reuse of and Figure 2 show the distribution of
recyclable materials) of which 91,000 were businesses and jobs across England,
in waste treatment, collection and disposal. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland,
The sector has seen continuous growth based on assumptions about average
from 47,000 in 1998 (see Table 3) but business size from the ABI 2008 (ONS,
changes in the Standard Industrial 2010).
Classification (SIC) codes have produced
inconsistencies in the data. Data do not
Standard Industrial
‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08
Classification (SIC) Description
SIC
SIC 1992/2003 Total employment (‘000)
‘07
Recycling of metal waste and
5 7 7 9 9 7 7 10 9 9 24
scrap
Recycling of non-metal waste
5 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 12 11
and scrap
Source: ABI 2008, Section E – Waste management and remediation activities (ONS, 2010).
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Table 4: UK businesses and jobs in the waste collection, treatment and disposal sector,
2008
Average size of
No. Businesses Estimated employment
business
England 5,380 74,810 14
COLLECTION
Kerbside 2,750
Bring/drop-off site 1,700
Civic amenity site 1,000
TOTAL COLLECTION 5,450
SORTING
REPROCESSING
Paper/card 9,400
Glass 160
Steel 60
75
Aluminium
70
Plastic
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Scotland
A recent study by the Scottish Executive by 2,000. The waste management industry
(Scottish Executive, 2010) summarised in spent £230 million in 2004 on goods,
Table 6 suggests that employment in solid materials and services. Capital expenditure
waste management in Local Authority, has risen by over 300% since 1998. Using
private, community, consultancy and information from the Community Recycling
government sectors in Scotland was about Network for Scotland (CRNS), the study
8,000 jobs in 2004/6 having grown from shows that as well as full time jobs the
about 4,600 in 1998 with a turnover of about sector provides 970 training placements and
£454 million in 2004. The study suggests over 3,200 voluntary positions.
that some 1,446 jobs were created in local
An Input-Output analysis of the Scottish
authorities from 2003 to 2006. Collection
economy (Scottish Executive, 2009) shows
and disposal makes up most of the
that for every 100 jobs created in the
employment (approximately 2,600
recycling sector, 36 indirect jobs will be
employees in 2004), followed by non-scrap
created in the supply chain and a further 27
recycling (600) and scrap recycling (500).
induced jobs will be created as a result of
Employment in recycling has remained
employees in these businesses spending
constant over the review period whilst
their wages in Scotland.
employment in disposal activities has grown
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A recent literature review on recycling and economic development in the US (CASCADIA, 2009) reported
that, on a national scale, the recycling industry has consistently been creating more jobs at higher income
levels than landfill or incineration of waste. In California it was found that ‘if all waste generation were
disposed instead of being diverted at the 1999 rates, the state-wide economic impacts would be 17 to 20
percent lower’ (Goldman, 2001). A follow up study (CIWMB, 2003) calculated that recycling a tonne of
‘waste’ materials has approximately twice the economic impact of burying it in the ground, and on average
recycling one additional tonne of waste will pay $101 more in salaries and wages, produce $275 more in
goods and services, and generate $135 more in sales than disposing of it in a landfill.
A study of the three US cities of Baltimore, Washington, D.C. and Richmond (CASCADIA, 2009) found that
79 jobs were required for every 100,000 tonnes of materials collected and sorted per annum and another
162 jobs for processing, making a total of 241. This is 10 times the job potential of waste disposal. In
Vermont, recycling 1 million tonnes of material was found to generate 550-2,000 jobs, compared with 150-
1,100 for incineration and 50-360 for landfills (US EPA, 2002; Seldman, 2006). In some areas, such as
Massachusetts, recycling-based paper mills and plastic product manufacturers have been reported to
employ 60 times more workers than do landfills on a per-tonne basis. Studies in California, Iowa,
Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana, North Carolina, and Washington also showed that average income levels in
the recycling sector were higher than the waste management sector overall (CASCADIA, 2009).
One state’s study found that job creation in the recycling sector easily outweighed job losses in waste
disposal and virgin materials mining and manufacture, with only 13 jobs displaced for every 100 gained.
In their research on the up- and down- (LEPU, 2004) as shown in Table 9. The
stream employment impacts of recycling in collection and sorting of WEEE and plastics
London, the Local Economy Policy Unit provide the greatest job opportunities, with a
(LEPU) calculated that for every 1,000 total of 40 and 15.6 jobs respectively being
tonnes recycled per year, 6 jobs would be created per 1,000 tonnes of material
gained across the entire waste stream processed.
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Table 7: Job creation from reuse, recycling and conventional disposal of waste in the US
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*NB: this study pre-dates the development of the Closed Loop London plastics recycling and manufacturing operation
and the consequent potential for growing the reprocessing of food-grade plastics packaging closer to the consumer
end-markets within the UK.
Source: (LEPU, 2004)
In the US, recycling programmes have also moving towards higher recycling, reuse and
been reported to provide higher average remanufacturing rates in Europe. What the
wages than those found in conventional broad thrust of the research available shows
waste disposal sectors and also provide a is the significance of recycling and related
good return on capital investment activities in creating employment relative to
(CASCADIA 2009; R.W.Beck Inc 2001). other forms of waste treatment (such as
The research also found that if material was landfill and incineration) and, despite the
diverted from landfill, total sales and value- limitations in data, the pattern of steadily
added profits, and total income and job increasing employment in the recycling
opportunities nearly doubled. These authors sector and its supply chain as recycling
also found that for every 100 jobs created in performance increases. However, it should
the processing and manufacturing of be noted that since many of these studies
recyclable materials, only 13 jobs were lost were undertaken, both the US and EU have
in corresponding up- and down-stream started to export paper and plastics
industries. recyclate. In the future the extent that
potential jobs associated with higher
recycling rates are domestic rather than
This body of research has faced the same overseas will depend on how ‘closed loop’
data and methodological limitations as the recycling is or how far higher rates are
current study but still provides a useful basis achieved through increased exports.
for estimating potential jobs associated with
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Past trends in employment in the MSW and Austerity’ will continue - even as the
C&I sectors have been estimated based on economy starts to recover - as households
the studies cited above and by applying co- and businesses recognise the need for and
efficients taken from the trends observable the benefits of waste reduction. As a result
in the relationship between UK (municipal we have projected a steady fall in municipal
waste) recycling and employment in the solid waste generated across the EU27 to
sector, the only two datasets for which 10 2025.
year trends are available. This is expressed
as a simple ratio between tonnages handled Based on calculations for total waste
per full time equivalent employee. We have arisings we have estimated the potential
applied these UK co-efficients to EU27 additional material which could be diverted
recycling data which show crude fit for the from landfill and incineration to recycling,
years where employment data are available reuse and remanufacture in EU27 and the
(1999 and 2004). UK data suggest a UK. We have assumed that the share of key
gradual rise in the amount handled per job materials will remain constant, based on
between 1999 and 2008 - notwithstanding 2004 shares (Prognos et al, 2008) and that
the discontinuity in data sets mentioned recycling rates for each material will
above - which would be consistent with increase. Realistic assumptions for
economies of scale and the gradual change recycling rates across the EU27 by 2020
in the nature of materials being recovered are shown in Table 10.
from the waste stream. This trend towards Employment creation from waste
increasing efficiency has then been
management and recycling for the EU27
projected into the future in relation to has been calculated using two approaches:
projections for total municipal waste firstly, a simple tonnage/job ratio for all
arisings. municipal waste recycled by projecting past
Future waste arisings for the EU27 have trends in waste not going to landfill or
been estimated on the basis of official incineration (ie a “Business as Usual”
Eurostat population projections to 2025 by scenario); and secondly, a more
member state, and extrapolating past trends disaggregated approach using the jobs per
in waste arisings per capita (kg per capita 1000 tonnes of key recyclables in the total
per annum) in the context of ‘New waste stream (which indicates the additional
Austerity’. We have assumed that waste jobs over and above the Business As Usual
arisings will follow the downward trends first scenario which might be created by aspiring
seen in 2007-8 as recession led to a to higher rates of recycling). As noted
reduction in waste arisings per capita in above, some of these jobs could be
most member states (and a deceleration in overseas if recycling rates are achieved by
more recent EU entrants). We have exporting recyclate rather than moving to
assumed that these patterns of ‘New closed loop recycling.
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Table 10: Current EU27 rates of recycling for key materials (from Prognos 2008) and
assumed recycling rates for 2020
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Aluminium 11 - 11
Textiles 5 8.5 5
We have then estimated indirect and economy. There are a number of ways in
induced employment by applying average which multipliers can be calculated:
multipliers for the sector taken from the US,
European and UK studies described below. • Surveys of businesses and employees
A Type 1 multiplier calculates the indirect to determine how much they spend on
employment up and down-stream resulting local purchases. This information can be
from new direct employment in the recycling used to calculate local supply linkages
sector. A Type 2 multiplier calculates the (ie a Type 1 multiplier).
induced jobs from spending by both direct • Previous research/evaluations which
and indirect employees in the local identify direct jobs and spending in the
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recycling sector and supply chain. No multipliers (Scottish Executive, 2009) for the
such studies have been carried out in ‘miscellaneous manufacturing not
the UK but in the US the study for EPA elsewhere specified including recycling’
(2001) involved detailed surveys of sector were 1.36 for Type 1 and 1.63 for
company employment and expenditure Type 2. Type 2 multipliers for related
and calculated both Type 1 and Type 2 sectors which include closed loop recycling
multiplier effects associated with were higher at 1.80 for glass, 1.93 for
different types of recycling collection, construction and 2.64 for paper and board.
processing, manufacturing and
remanufacturing/reuse. Work in other sectors across the UK such
as renewables and housebuilding (ADAS ,
• Economic models – to develop 2003; Mackay Consultants, 2007) suggests
relationships between local and national that regional multipliers vary considerably,
economies. This approach is more with the highest multiplier effects for
suited to local economic interventions England, then Northern Ireland, followed by
and has not been applied to the EU or Scotland and Wales. Employment
UK recycling sectors. multipliers for the whole of the UK are even
• Input-Output tables which identify supply higher than regional ones since there is less
linkages between sectors. The Scottish leakage in terms of imported equipment and
Executive provides both Type 1 and supplies and a greater percentage of
Type 2 multipliers for a wide range of salaries are spent in the ‘local’ economy.
individual Scottish industry sectors.
We have thus used a Type 1 multiplier of
The study for EU27 (Ernst and Young, 1.50 and Type 2 multiplier of 1.75 to
2006) used a Type 1 multiplier of 1.22 for calculate indirect plus induced employment.
calculating the indirect jobs resulting from These are considered conservative since
operating expenditure in the waste they are lower than those generally applied
management sector. This is considered in sectors such as mining, construction,
quite low, since it is only applies to manufacturing, transport, communication
operating expenditure and does not include and utilities and only slightly above the
capital expenditure by the sector. In the US Scottish regional multipliers for recycling in
the EPA’s multi-state study (US EPA, 2002) 2004.
identified Type 1 multipliers ranging from
1.13 for recycling collection to 2.48 for Our findings provide an initial order of
remanufacturing with an average of 2.18 magnitude estimate of the job creation
across the whole sector. In the same study potential from further recycling and reuse of
Type 2 multipliers ranged from 1.77 to 4.11 the valuable recyclable resources which are
with an average of 3.53. For 2004 Scottish still going to landfill in the UK and within the
EU.
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European Union
Figure 3 shows the overall trend in the last other waste, which, because of its nature or
decade of increasing recycling and composition, is similar to waste from
composting of municipal waste in the EU, households”. Total municipal waste arisings
with key waste generating countries were 260 million tonnes in 2008, up from
highlighted (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, 251 million tonnes in 2004 but with overall
France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, growth flattening off as a result of recession
Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain, and waste policies in member states. Based
Sweden and the United Kingdom) using on the Prognos study (2008) total C&I and
data available to 2008 (Eurostat, 2010a). CD&E waste added a further 150 million
tonnes of recyclables in 2004. We note that
Figure 4 shows projections for municipal the UK is in the process of modifying its
waste arisings to 2025 in the EU27 using previous approach to the EU definition of
Eurostat data and the ‘New Austerity’ municipal waste to align more closely with
context described in this report, expressed the rest of the EU. However, this
in a standardised form as kg per person per modification is unlikely to significantly affect
year. This scenario assumes falling per the trend and projections for increased
capita waste arisings in most countries (and employment from higher levels of recycling.
slower growth in recent entrant states) with
the result that total EU27 municipal waste Figure 5 shows the estimated make-up of
would reach about 260 million tonnes in waste streams in the EU27, highlighting the
2010, stay at this level to 2020 and then fall largest waste generating countries
to 259 million tonnes by 2025. Figure 4 also (including the UK) for key recyclable waste
shows how waste arisings might increase if streams in 2004. Projections are based on
Europe returned to its wasteful pre- the average tonnage in the waste stream as
recession patterns of waste generation from reported in the Prognos 2008 study and the
2015 onwards: municipal waste arisings assumption that recycling rates across
would increase to 275 million tonnes by EU27 have risen steadily since then, albeit
2020 and 289 million by 2025. The New there is a lack of any comprehensive set of
Austerity context is considered far more data to prove this.
likely and so the wasteful alternative is not
explored further here.
http://eur-
[1]
As defined in “The Landfill Directive” (Council Directive lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:1999:18
1999/31/EC of 26 April 1999 on the landfill of waste, 2:0001:0019:EN:PDF.
Article 2(b), available at
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Figure 6 shows our projections for potential the lowest coefficient from the studies
new jobs from waste management in cited above. This shows that by
Europe using two different scenarios: recycling an additional 115 million
tonnes of key materials each year by
• Scenario 1: 50% recycling (Business 2020 (compared to 2004) some 321,700
as Usual) new direct jobs in the recycling sector
Extrapolating the overall amount of could be created and that 160,000
municipal waste arisings and recycling indirect jobs could be created in the
based on the ‘New Austerity’ context, supply chain for recycling businesses. A
results in estimates of employment further 80,400 induced jobs could
gradually rising from 1.2 million in potentially be created as a result of
2004 to reach 1.24 million by 2010, spending by employees in all these
falling slightly to a stable level of businesses contributing to a total of half
about 1.22 million in 2020. This a million new jobs across Europe.
scenario would not mean that all EU27 Displacement of jobs in the virgin
member states managed to meet the materials and landfill and incineration
Waste Framework Directive (European sector has not been calculated but is
Commission, 2008) targets for 2020. accounted for by the choice of Type 2
This scenario suggests that no new net multiplier. If less conservative but
employment would be created between nonetheless justifiable estimates were
2004 and 2020, although there would be used for either the number of jobs
some growth in the recycled materials created per thousand tonnes or for
sector at the expense of employment in multipliers this figure could be as high as
landfill and residual treatment activities. 750,000.
• Scenario 2: 70% Recycling
Table 12 highlights that the sectors with
In contrast we have assumed that high
greatest potential for creating new jobs are
but realistic rates of recycling could be
paper and iron and steel (because of the
achieved for each of the key recyclable
large volumes involved) and plastics,
materials (covering municipal, C&I and
biowaste and wood (because of the low
CD&E waste streams) shown in Table
base rate of recycling from which they are
10 across the whole of the EU27 for
starting). Due to data limitations at the EU
2020. This would mean that as a whole
level, these estimates do not include
the EU27 would achieve a 70%
opportunities for repair, reuse and
recycling rate for these waste streams.
remanufacturing from furniture and WEEE
We have then assumed that for every
or other valuable waste streams, which
thousand tonnes of material recycled
reinforces the fact that these are
jobs would be created as shown in
conservative estimates.
Table 11. In each case we have used
25
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26
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Figure 3: Trends in EU27 municipal solid waste presumed recycled and composted ('000
tonnes) going to neither landfill nor incineration) 1997-2008
120000
80000 Poland
Austria
Netherlands
Italy
60000
France
Spain
Greece
40000
Ireland
Germany
Denmark
20000 Belgium
Other EU27
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
27
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Figure 4: Trends and projections for EU27 municipal waste arisings (kg per capita pa), by
type of management: ‘New Austerity’ context and ‘Back to Squandering’ patterns
600
500
EU 27 MSW/capita (New
Austerity)
EU (27 countries)
MSW/capita incinerated
(New Austerity)
400
EU (27 countries)
MSW/capita landfilled
(New Austerity)
EU (27 countries)
MSW/capita incinerated
200 (Back to Squandering)
EU (27 countries)
MSW/capita landfilled
(Back to Squandering)
28
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Figure 5: Total recycling and disposal of key recyclables, from municipal, commercial
and industrial waste for key European countries ('000 tonnes), 2004
250000
Paper recycled
Paper disposed
Textiles recycled
Plastics disposed
Wood recycled
Wood disposed
Textiles disposed
Biowaste recycled
Total recycled
Biowaste disposed
Aluminium recycled
Total disposed
Aluminium disposed
Belgium
Other EU 27 countries
29
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Figure 6: EU27 trends and projections for jobs (‘000s) in waste management and
recycling under 50% and 70% recycling by 2020
3800
3300
EU 27 with 70%
recycling of key
materials by
2800 2020
2300 EU 27 Business
as Usual
recycling rates
1800
1300
30
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Table 12: EU27 potential new direct, indirect, induced and displaced jobs as a result of
70% recycling rate by 2020
31
More jobs, less waste
United Kingdom
For the UK better trend data is available on 19 million tonnes collected in 2006,
the generation of municipal waste and its some 4.6 million tonnes was recycled.
composition and on the make-up and Paper and card, biowaste and glass
recycling of C&I waste. We have therefore predominate, while textiles, wood,
developed four different scenarios as furniture and WEEE, plastics and
follows: metallic waste are starting from a low
base. We have assumed that the current
• Scenario 1: Potential new jobs from share of these materials in the waste
meeting current targets (50% by 2020) stream will hold in the future.
for kerbside collection and recycling
in England;
• Scenario 2: Potential new jobs from
• The projection of future municipal waste
meeting the current EU-mandated arisings for England on the basis of the
target (50% by 2020) for recycling all ‘New Austerity’ context as described for
municipal waste across the UK; the EU27 above. This implies that waste
• Scenario 3: Potential new jobs from arisings will continue to fall by 0.5% per
meeting potential targets for annum, even after recovery from
recycling, based on 70% average2 recession. We have assumed that
recycling rate for all municipal waste kerbside collection and recycling will
by 2025 across the UK; and hold its current share in total municipal
• Scenario 4: Potential new jobs from collection (58% in 2006).
achieving 70% recycling by 2025
across municipal and commercial
and industrial waste across the UK.
2
For this analysis, 70% recycling rates are
based on dry recyclables and compostable
waste, and do not include any provision for
Incinerator Bottom Ash (IBA) as has been
included in some recycling targets (such as
Wales)
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20000
18000
16000
14000
Other
Biowaste
12000
Textiles
Wood
10000
Furniture and WEEE
Metallics
8000
Plastic
Paper
6000
Glass
4000
2000
Building on the above approach we have materials we have extrapolated on the basis
then developed two scenarios for total UK of the current share of kerbside collection in
municipal waste recycling. These have been overall municipal waste. In the case of
developed on the basis of extrapolating biowaste we have assumed that the vast
English kerbside collection data to all majority of arisings are collected at the
municipal waste and the whole of the UK kerbside. England/Scotland data have been
and then applying 50% (Business as Usual) extrapolated for the UK by assuming that
and 70% recycling targets. We have used the current share of waste arisings and
additional data on current municipal recycling by country will continue in the
recycling of key materials in England (Defra future. England currently generates some
Waste Statistics) and Scotland (SEPA 82% of UK municipal waste with Scotland
Waste Statistics) where this is available (9.2%), Wales (5.1%) and Northern Ireland
(e.g. for glass, paper, metallic wastes, (3.5%) accounting for much smaller shares.
wood, furniture and WEEE). For other
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More jobs, less waste
Table 13: Assumed recycling rates for kerbside collection of municipal waste in England
to achieve 50% overall recycling by 2020 and 55% by 2025
Total Total
Key recyclable available recycled
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025
materials in kerbside from
collection kerbside
Furniture and
195 29 15 16 17 18 20 25 35 45
WEEE
Wood 156 4 3 5 10 15 20 30 45 55
Textiles 517 30 6 8 10 12 15 30 45 55
Other 1899 14 1 2 3 4 5 10 18 21
Total
18651 4654 25 27 29 32 36 42 50 55
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Table 14: Potential new jobs by 2025 (relative to 2006) by achieving 50% recycling of
kerbside collection by 2020 and 55% by 2025 for England
Total additional
Overall
recycling by Potential new jobs (2025 relative to
recycling
2025 (relative to 2006)
rate
2006)
Total net
% 000 tonnes Direct Indirect Induced
jobs
Multipliers: 1.5 1.75
2015
41.7 2599 7914 3957 1978 13849
2020
50.0 1155 3269 1635 793 5722
2025
55.0 537 1584 792 389 2772
Total additional
8945 4291 12768 6384 3160 22343
by 2025
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Table 15: Assumed recycling rates for all UK municipal waste to achieve 50% recycling
by 2020 and 55% by 2025
2006 Baseline
Assumed recycling rate
(Defra, 2010a)
Key
Total Total
recyclable 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025
potential recycled
materials
Furniture
494 94 19 20 21 22 25 30 35 40
& WEEE
Wood 347 58 17 18 19 20 25 30 35 40
36
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Table 16: UK potential new recycling jobs by 2025 (relative to 2006) by achieving 55%
recycling across all municipal waste
Total additional
Overall Potential new jobs
recycling by
recycling
2025 (relative to (2025 relative to 2006)
rate
2006)
Total net
% 000 tonnes Direct Indirect Induced
jobs
Total additional by
17024 6114 18591 9296 4648 32535
2025
Table 17: Number of potential new recycling jobs by nation: Scotland, Wales, England
and Northern Ireland
Northern
Scotland Wales England
Ireland
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Table 18: Assumed recycling rates to achieve 70% recycling of total UK municipal waste
by 2025
Glass 42 43 46 48 50 60 70 80
Paper 48 49 50 52 55 60 70 80
Plastic 8 9 10 12 15 25 35 45
Metals 47 48 49 50 50 65 70 80
Wood 17 18 19 20 25 50 60 70
Textiles 13 15 18 20 22 50 60 70
Biowaste 26 27 28 29 30 54 65 75
Other 22 23 24 25 26 29 37 47
Total 31 32 33 35 36 50 60 70
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Table 19: UK potential new recycling jobs by 2025 (relative to 2006) by achieving 70%
recycling across all municipal waste
Table 20: Share of potential new jobs in recycling by region: Scotland, Wales, England
and Northern Ireland
39
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40
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Table 21: UK summary data for 2005/6 (unless shown) for MSW, CD&E; C&I waste
streams (million tonnes per year)
Table 22: ‘Best estimates’ of the quantities of key materials, from the UK municipal and
C&I waste streams, which are sent to recycling
41
More jobs, less waste
Table 23 summarises assumptions about 70,300 total new potential jobs at least
recycling rates for key waste streams – 57,800 will be in England with 6,500 in
glass, paper, plastics, metallics, wood, Scotland, 3,600 in Wales and 2,500 in
textiles and biowaste – based on similar Northern Ireland (Table 25).
assumptions to Scenario 3 for municipal
waste streams in order to achieve an overall These estimates appear to fit well with
recycling rate of 70% by 2025. Scottish Government expectations of 1,995
new direct jobs for the recycling sector over
Table 24 shows that – again assuming the next six years (see Table 26), based on
overall waste arisings will fall in the New their bottom up assessment of implementing
Austerity context – the total recycled the ‘Zero Waste Plan’ (Scottish Executive,
municipal and C&I material will increase by 2010). This study also suggests that
18.5 million tonnes to reach a total of 55.8 accredited training could be provided to
million tonnes by 2025. Collection, 2,000 trainees and volunteers per annum by
processing and remanufacturing of this 2013.
additional material could create some
40,150 direct, 20,100 indirect and 10,000
induced jobs across the UK. Of these
Table 23: Assumed recycling rates for key materials in the municipal and C&I waste
streams to achieve 70% overall recycling by 2025
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Table 24: Potential new UK jobs (relative to 2006) by achieving recycling targets for 70%
by 2025 for key materials in MSW and C&I waste streams
Total additional
Overall
recycling by Potential new jobs
recycling
2025 (relative to (2025 relative to 2006)
rate
2006)
Total net
% 000 tonnes Direct Indirect Induced
jobs
Multipliers: 1.5 1.75
2015 55 9575 21820 10910 5455 38184
2020 63 4657 9489 4744 2372 16605
2025 70 4465 8838 4419 2209 15466
Total additional by
56023 18697 40146 20073 10036 70255
2025
Table 25: Potential new jobs from reaching 70% recycling target by 2025 across the
municipal and C&I waste streams –Scotland, Wales, England and Northern Ireland
Northern
Scotland Wales England
Ireland
43
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Table 26: Estimated potential new jobs in the recycling sector in Scotland over the 6
years of the ‘Zero Waste Plan’ from 2010, (Scottish Executive, 2010)
Recycling collections
1450
Sorting of waste
200
Resource efficiency
100
Food waste processing
120
Plastic waste processing
20
Residual waste treatment
infrastructure 100
Total
1990
44
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Figure 8: Projections for total and new recycling (‘000 tonnes) by 2025 under four
scenarios for the UK.
60000
50000
40000
30000
total recycling
20000
additonal (2025 from 2006)
10000
0
Kerbside All UK All UK UK municipal +
collection, Muncipal (50% Muncipal (70% C&I key
England (50% by 2020, 55% by 2025) materials (70%
by 2020, 55% by 2025) by 2025)
by 2025)
45
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Figure 9: Potential new jobs from increased UK recycling (2025 compared to 2006
baseline)
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000 Northern Ireland
30000 Wales
20000 Scotland
10000 England
0
Kerbside All UK Muncipal All UK Muncipal UK municipal +
collection, England (50% by 2020, 55% (70% by 2025) C&I key materials
(50% by 2020, 55% by 2025) (70% by 2025)
by 2025)
If more challenging recycling rates of over Meeting the 70% by 2025 target would be
60% by 2020 and 70% by 2025 are challenging – particularly for biowaste,
pursued across the UK for all municipal textiles, wood, furniture and WEEE which
waste, this could create 51,400 total net are all starting from a relatively low base.
new jobs by 2025 relative to 2006. Again But the 70% target for municipal waste
over 80% of these would be in England with recycling alone suggests that nearly
an estimated 4,700 in Scotland, 2,600 in 19,000 additional new jobs could be
Wales and 1,800 in Northern Ireland. created as a result of achieving this higher
Projections for potential jobs from recycling rate of recycling.
of municipal and C&I – albeit on less robust
data – suggest that across the entire waste Many of these additional jobs would be in
stream these higher targets would lead to the reuse and remanufacturing sectors
70,300 total new jobs in recycling, reuse which have been shown to have
and remanufacture. These estimates fit well considerable additional social benefits when
with the Scottish Government’s bottom up undertaken particularly by third sector
estimate for potential new jobs created from organisations.
pursuing their ‘Zero Waste Plan’.
46
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Conclusions
This short research study has sought to management and virgin materials are taken
make the best use of the available data on into account, the total potential is for
employment in waste and recycling, more than half a million net new jobs.
municipal waste generation and C&I and
CD&E waste generation across the UK and These figures should be regarded as
EU. In general, the data for municipal waste estimates not as targets. They are based on
is much better than for commercial and conservative assumptions, so avoiding false
construction wastes and so there is expectations and leaving considerable
inevitably a stronger focus on projections for potential for them to be exceeded in a policy
municipal waste. Likewise with employment climate which prioritises high recycling and
data, the inconsistencies and limited accounts for green job creation as an
availability of data from some EU countries important benefit of such a policy.
means that this short study is useful as an In the UK more than half of municipal waste
indicator of potential and gives an order of ends up being landfilled or incinerated, and
magnitude to the potential for job creation unemployment is rising in an economic
from more waste recycling. context where reductions in public spending
Despite the limitations of the data and the are adding more uncertainty to the
varied nature of such studies into economic climate. In this context, we hope
employment in the waste management and that the positive message contained in this
recycling industries as have been done, it report is a contribution to the debate about
has been possible using some simple future waste and resource policy. Just as
assumptions and focused methodology to we are moving towards rethinking ‘waste’ as
look at the trends of both employment and a valued resource, so we should also be
increased recycling and make projections recognising the value of our human
for the improved employment opportunities resource – the potential ‘green jobs’
that much higher rates of recycling in the workforce – and the role they can play in
UK and EU might generate. increasing recycling and reuse, reducing
carbon emissions and contributing to a
This very preliminary analysis based on more sustainable economy here and across
simple but defendable assumptions the EU.
suggests that across the EU27 up to
322,000 direct jobs could be created in Although we acknowledge that more work
recycling an additional 115 million should be done to assess the role of exports
tonnes of glass, paper, plastic, ferrous of recyclables in the growth of recycling and
and non ferrous metals, wood, textiles employment, many of the new ‘green jobs’
and biowaste. These jobs would have will be based on recycling and reuse
knock on effects in down- and up-stream collection and reprocessing systems close
sectors and the wider economy. Even once to home as well as the emerging areas of
jobs displaced from traditional waste waste prevention, food waste collection and
energy from waste through anaerobic
47
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digestion and other technologies to process been known for some years. We hope that
biowaste. They will provide many valuable this contribution to the debate reinforces the
opportunities in the public, private and third value of that link, and places it firmly in the
sectors for training and work for people who spotlight as the Coalition Government
are often marginalised from other begins to articulate the detail of its
employment. programme for the Big Society, linked to the
emergence of a Zero Waste and Low
The link between job creation and better Carbon economy.
waste management through recycling has
48
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obs, less waste
Acknowledgements
49
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