Total Hospitalizations

18,654 18,825 18,697

18,279 18,569 18,707 18,335
18,079 17,735
17,493 17,316
16,837 16,967
16,479 16,213
15,905 16,103 16,044
15,599
14,810 15,021
14,258
13,383 13,524
12,819
12,839 12,646
12,226 12,159
11,598
10,929 10,993
10,350
9,786
9,517 9,647
8,503
7,328
6,481
5,327
4,079
3,343
2,629
2,043
1,406
1,042
617
326 496
March 16 May 3
 Net Change in Total Hospitalizations
1,412 1,427
1,297
1,248 1,095
1,154 1,1751,014 1,157
847
714 736
637 656
586 574 586
425 290
364 358
121 200 53
170
91 118
85
-20
-59
-128 -110 -139
-173
-362 -349
-419 -445
-487
-578 -561 -564
-600 -605
-643
-685
-754 -763 -734
March 16 May 3
 Net Change in Intubations
351
313 316
303
290 295 291
260
222
200
192
165
132
124 121
116 110
94 109
93 88
69 69
43
27
-7
-14 -16
-26 -21
-32
-40 -41
-48
-65
-73 -78
-92
-112 -108
-118 -115 -102
-127 -124 -110
-139 -124
March 17 May 3
 New COVID Hospitalizations Per Day
Gross new COVID hospitalizations (3-day rolling average)
3,181 3,169
3,042
2,945
2,825
2,772
2,736 2,722 2,689
2,563
2,487
2,411 2,389
2,210
2,119 2,156
2,016 2,039 2,045
1,925 1,949
1,833
1,776
1,616
1,564
1,408
1,389 1,404 1,367
1,265 1,224
1,119
1,076
973 970 933 954
924
837 831
789
717
656 694
489
March 20 May 3
 Number of Lives Lost
April 28: 330
April 29: 306
April 30: 289
May 1: 299
May 2: 280
May 3: 226
(193 in Hospitals, 33 in Nursing Homes)
 ?
? Reopening ?
?
Learn the Lessons
AND
Be Smart
Learn the Lessons
collected in the New
York metropolitan area
origins in Europe and
CDC Report May 1, 2020
 Learn the Lessons
The extensive travel from
Europe, once Europe was
having outbreaks, really
accelerated our importations
and the rapid spread I think
the timing of our travel alerts
should have been earlier
CDC Principal Deputy Director Anne Schuchat
May 1, 2020
 Learn the Lessons
Where did those flights land?
Europe to USA flights, February 5 March 16
Chicago:
773 JFK:
2,758
Newark: 1,200
 So we learn the lessons:
a new contagious influenza virus
anywhere today, can be a pandemic
everywhere
 Learn the Lessons
The 1918 influenza epidemic
shows us the deadly consequences of
hasty, hurried reopenings
 Learn the Lessons
And
consequences of reopening too soon
as we battle the COVID-19 pandemic.
Learn the Lessons
Learn the Lessons
a bad fall and a bad
winter.
Dr. Tony Fauci
April 29, 2020
Truth is no one knows what
it will keep you safe.
Be prepared for
all possibilities.
Chart a course where
we can correct.
 Data
+
Measures
+
Science
Not Personal Opinion
 Quantifiable Formula
• % and rate of hospitalizations
+
Diagnostic testing rate
+
Contact tracing
=
Rt 1.1
• Phase I, II, III, IV business reopen
• If Rt > 1.1 - Stop
Metrics
Core factors will determine when a region can reopen:
Monitoring Diagnostic Contact
Healthcare
New Testing Tracing
Capacity
Infections Capacity Capacity
 Metrics Monitoring New Infections
Based on guidelines from the CDC
• Regions must have at least 14 days of
1 decline in total hospitalizations AND deaths
on a 3-day rolling average
• In regions with few COVID cases, cannot
2 exceed 15 new total cases or 5 new deaths
on a 3-day rolling average
 Metrics Monitoring New Infections
In order to monitor the potential spread of
infection in a region:
• A region must have fewer than two
3 new COVID patients admitted per
100k residents per day
 Metrics Healthcare Capacity
We must make sure every region has capacity
to handle a potential surge in cases:
• Regions must have at least 30% total
4 hospital AND ICU beds available
• This is coupled with the new
5 requirement that hospitals have at
least 90 days of PPE stockpiled
Metrics Diagnostic Testing Capacity
We have brought diagnostic
testing to scale
1 million New Yorkers have
now been tested.
 Metrics Diagnostic Testing Capacity
Following recommendation from Dr. Birx:
• 30 tests for every 1,000 residents
6 per month
New York Is Testing More Than Other States
TOTAL DIAGNOSTIC TESTS BY POPULATION
1.2% 1.7% 1.8% 2% 2.8% 5.2%
Kentucky Georgia California Florida Washington New York
State
New York Is Testing More Than Other Countries
TOTAL DIAGNOSTIC TESTS BY POPULATION
1.2% 1.7% 2.2% 2.3% 3.5% 5.2%
South UK USA Canada Italy New York
Korea State
 NYS Sample Collection Kits
has made nearly 300,000
testing kits to collect samples.
Today, we are sending 60,000 kits
to labs & hospitals across NYS.
 Metrics Contact Tracing Capacity
• Regions must have a baseline of 30 contact
7 tracers for every 100,000 residents, and
additional tracers based on the projected
number of cases in the region
• We are building an army of tracers, in
partnership with Mayor Bloomberg, to meet
statewide needs
If new cases are under control
and Rt range is below 1:
commence reopening in phases
while monitoring Rt rate and
health system capacity.
 Phased Reopening of Businesses
Risk v. Reward Analysis
8
Greater Economic Impact Lower Economic Impact
Low Industry greater economic Industry less economic
impact, low risk of
Infection workplace or customer
impact, low risk of workplace
or customer infection spread
Risk infection spread
Industry greater economic Industry less economic
Higher impact, higher risk of impact, higher risk of
Infection workplace or customer workplace or customer
Risk infection spread infection spread
 Phased Reopening of Business
Phase 1
Construction
8 Manufacturing and wholesale supply chain
Select Retail Curbside Pickup
Phase 2
Professional Services
Finance and Insurance
Retail
Administrative Support
Real Estate/Rental Leasing
Phase 3
Restaurants/Food Services
Hotels/Accommodations
Phase 4
Arts/Entertainment/Recreation
Education
 Business Safety Precautions
9
People Places Processes
• Adjusted workplace • Masks required if in • Continuous health
hours and shift design frequent contact with screening to enter
• Social distancing others workplace
• Strict cleaning and • Continuous tracing,
• Non-essential travel
sanitation standards tracking and reporting
restricted
• Liability
 Business Safety Precautions
reimagine
their operations to be safe in
compliance with new standards.
 Regional Approach
Lower-risk regions
Higher-risk regions
 Where do Regions Currently Stand?
14-day decline 30 per 1k
14-day decline in
in hospital New residents
hospitalizations Share of ICU At least 30
deaths hospitalizations Share of total beds tested
OR beds available contact tracers
OR (Under 2 per 100K available monthly Metrics Met
Under 15 new (threshold of per 100K
Fewer than 5 residents— (threshold of 30%) (7-day average
hospitalizations 30%) residents
deaths 3 day rolling avg) of new tests
(3-day avg)
(3-day avg) per day)
Capital Region N Y 0.58 41% 44% N 325 4/7
Central New York Y Y 0.47 49% 51% N 233 5/7
Finger Lakes Y Y 1.19 53% 64% N 361 5/7
Long Island Y N 5.76 28% 26% Y 852 2/7
Mid-Hudson Y N 4.74 31% 35% Y 697 4/7
Mohawk Valley Y Y 1.17 58% 64% N 146 5/7
New York City Y Y 5.41 26% 21% Y 2520 3/7
North Country Y Y 0.08 53% 64% N 126 5/7
Southern Tier Y Y 0.11 58% 52% N 190 5/7
Western New York N Y 2.20 46% 40% N 414 3/7
 Regional Approach
Regional
10
• County Executive Bello, chairs of county
legislators/chairs of boards of town supervisors
• Mayor Warren, town supervisors
• Former Lt. Gov. Duffy
• Hospital officials
• State officials
There is real substantive Government
work to be done before May 15.
 In this new age, Government is not
about optics, celebrity, and
press releases.
It is about performance and expertise.
Government competence can be the
difference between life and death.
Our efforts have saved lives.
We must remain vigilant.
NEW YORK TOUGH
SMART
DISCIPLINED
UNIFIED
LOVING