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Seasonal decline seen in Dec’18; profitability to improve in 2Q Monday, December 31, 2018
Commencement of peak winter season is expected to drive sequential drop in cement
Cements sector performance dispatches during Dec’18 (local sales/exports down 8/4% MoM). However, on YoY
3M 6M 12M basis exports shows encouraging trend (+65% on YoY). Cement sales in 1HFY19 are
expected to increase by 3% YoY, mainly supported by 46% YoY growth in exports.
Absolute % ‐12% ‐16% ‐24%
Demand from South region remained strong (up 20% YoY) compensating for 7% YoY
Relative to KSE % ‐3% ‐5% ‐16%
drop in North region during 1H. Resultantly, the contribution of South in total sales
has increased to 27% in 1HFY19 (18% in 1HFY18).
KSE‐100 vs Cement sector performance
We expect cement sector’s profitability (proxy: BMA cement universe) to improve by
CEMENT KSE100 Index 9% QoQ in 2QFY19. The sequential improvement in earnings is mainly attributable to
40%
11% QoQ growth in sales volumes along with improved average retention prices.
30%
20% While the margins trend for LUCK, MLCF, KOHC and ACPL is expected to improve in the
10% range of 23‐300bps during 2Q, DGKC is expected to emerge as the key drag to overall
0%
sector margins (expected to remain flat at 24%).
‐10% Looking ahead, we believe divergent trends in price and cost (eye softness on both
‐20% fronts) may keep margins stable at current levels. Our top picks are LUCK, MLCF and
‐30% KOHC.
Dec‐17
Jan‐18
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Dec‐18
Seasonal drop witnessed in Dec’18: Provisional cement sales data for Dec’18 reflects
seasonal pressure where sales are expected to drop by 7%/3% MoM/YoY to 3.61mn tons.
Source: PSX, BMA Research While commencement of peak winter season kept the overall dispatches low on a
sequential basis (local sales/exports down 8/4% MoM), exports are expected to record an
Valuation Snapshot increase of 65% on YoY basis, mainly supported by clinker sales. Cumulatively, cement sales
P/E D/Y in 1HFY19 are expected to increase by 3% YoY to 22.86mn tons, mainly supported by 46%
FY19E TP Method/Stance
(x) (%)
YoY growth in exports. Local sales, on the other hand, continued to remain the victim of
LUCK 675 SoTP/Buy 10.1 2% slower pace of PSDP disbursements and different bans placed on private construction
DGKC 92 SoTP/Neutral 16.2 2% activity in both North and South region. Nevertheless, demand from the South region
MLCF 67 DCF/Buy 7.6 5% continued to remain strong (up 20% YoY) compensating for 7% YoY drop in the North
region. The contribution of South region in overall sales mix has also improved during
KOHC 128 DCF/Buy 6.9 4%
1HFY19 to 27% compared to 18% in the same period last year. Industry’s average utilization
ACPL 144 SoTP/Buy 8.7 4% stood at 84% during 1H. Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL) is expected to outperform
its peers with 60% YoY growth in sales while Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC)
PIOC 41 DCF/UP 8.2 5%
remained the major laggard during 1HFY19.
*UP‐Underperform
Source: BMA Research Provisional cement dispatches for Dec'18
mn tons Dec'18 MoM YoY 1HFY19E YoY
BMA cement universe 2Q earnings deck Industry
Local 3.07 ‐8% ‐10% 19.35 ‐2%
2QFY19E 1HFY19E YoYΔ% DPS
Export 0.54 ‐4% 65% 3.51 46%
LUCK 7.63 15.34 ‐24% Nil Total 3.61 ‐7% ‐3% 22.86 3%
MLCF 1.08 2.07 ‐45% 0.75 CU (%) 80% 84%
KOHC 3.09 5.73 ‐30% 1.25 North
Local 2.43 ‐8% ‐14% 15.30 ‐7%
ACPL 3.49 6.57 ‐22% Nil
Export 0.21 ‐10% ‐8% 1.46 ‐19%
DGKC 1.40 2.35 ‐72% Nil Total 2.65 ‐8% ‐13% 16.77 ‐8%
PIOC 1.39 2.53 ‐22% Nil CU (%) 78% 83%
Source: BMA Research South
Local 0.64 ‐10% 9% 4.04 20%
Syeda Humaira Akhtar, CFA, FRM Export 0.33 0% 241% 2.04 236%
humaira.akhtar@bmacapital.com Total 0.96 ‐6% 41% 6.09 53%
+9221‐111‐262‐111 Ext: 2065 CU (%) 83% 87%
Source: APCMA, BMA Research
REP‐005
BMA Capital Management Ltd. 801 Unitower, I.I.Chundrigar Road, Karachi, 74000, Pakistan For further queries, please contact:
bmaresearch@bmacapital.com or call UAN: 111‐262‐111
www.jamapunji.pk
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Profitability to improve in 2Q: We expect BMA Cement universe’s (six companies
Company‐wise dispatches representing 64% of sector’s market cap) profitability to improve by 9% QoQ in 2QFY19
000' tons Dec'18 YoY 1HFY19E YoY despite normalization of tax rate (one‐offs booked in 1Q due to deferred tax adjustment).
LUCK 623 4% 3,717 2% The sequential improvement in earnings is mainly attributable to 11% QoQ growth in total
Local 473 ‐11% 2,852 ‐11% sales volumes along with improved average retention prices (up by ~4% QoQ due to
currency deval and increase in local prices). This is further supported by 6% QoQ drop in
Export 150 109% 865 86%
coal prices (partial impact to be seen in 2Q). Overall, gross margins of the sector are
DGKC 532 24% 2,753 11%
expected to remain flat in 2Q at 24%. Effective tax rate (ETR) is expected to jump to 23% in
Local 411 10% 2,274 3% 2Q compared to 18% recorded in 1Q. Recall that, in 1Q, few cement players (LUCK, MLCF,
Export 121 119% 479 78% and DGKC) realized deferred tax adjustments on their books leading to abnormally low ETR
FCCL 243 ‐12% 1,503 ‐7% in 1Q. On a cumulative basis, earnings are expected to drop by 39% YoY to PKR9.8bn in
1HFY19E.
Local 234 ‐9% 1,367 ‐4%
Export 10 ‐49% 136 ‐29% Key drag to sector margins comes from DGKC: While the margins trend for LUCK, MLCF,
CHCC 163 ‐14% 1,054 ‐16%
KOHC and ACPL is expected to improve in the range of 23‐300bps, DGKC is expected to
emerge as the key drag to overall sector margins. This is mainly due to rising cost pressure
Local 143 ‐19% 889 ‐13%
for the company where it is expected to book retrospective impact of water cost paid
Export 20 41% 165 ‐29% during 2Q (for the period Aug‐Nov’18). Nevertheless, earnings of DGKC are expected to
KOHC 182 10% 1,110 1% improve on sequential basis as the company managed to resolve operational hiccups faced
Local 173 8% 1,051 2% by its new Hub plant (operated for only 55 days in 1Q).
Export 9 45% 59 4% 2QFY19 Earnings estimates
ACPL 249 43% 1,717 60% (PKR mn) 2QFY19E QoQΔ% YoYΔ% 1HFY19E 1HFY18 YoYΔ%
Local 146 6% 1,005 19% Net Sales 41,331 12% 13% 78,165 70,638 11%
Export 104 179% 712 208% COGS 31,336 12% 31% 59,314 45,524 30%
MLCF 254 ‐11% 1,501 ‐14% Gross Profit 9,994 13% ‐22% 18,851 25,114 ‐25%
Local 223 ‐17% 1,357 ‐14% Gross margin 24% 24% 36%
Export 31 104% 144 ‐8% SGA 2,938 6% 41% 5,712 4,046 41%
FECTC 53 ‐18% 341 ‐13% Other Income 1,340 5% ‐11% 2,614 2,536 3%
Local 48 ‐19% 310 ‐10% Other charges 574 18% ‐40% 1,058 1,757 ‐40%
Export 5 ‐12% 30 ‐35% EBIT 7,823 14% ‐31% 14,695 21,848 ‐33%
Financial charges 1,188 4% 191% 2,327 688 238%
PIOC 120 ‐5% 718 ‐3%
PBT 6,635 16% ‐39% 12,368 21,159 ‐42%
Local 112 ‐7% 678 ‐4%
Taxation 1,498 46% ‐59% 2,524 5,120 ‐51%
Export 9 49% 40 45%
PAT 5,137 9% ‐29% 9,844 16,039 ‐39%
BWCL 649 ‐9% 4,040 ‐3%
Source: BMA Research
Local 583 ‐9% 3,543 ‐3%
Export 66 ‐9% 497 0% Divergent trends in price and cost ahead: Looking ahead, we eye softness in local prices
(particularly in KPK) during 3Q amid both demand and supply side pressures. The impact of
Source: BMA Research
pricing pressure, however, is expected to be diluted by declining cost side pressures
(downtrend expected in coal prices due to rising global supply). Consequently, we expect
gross margins of the cement sector to remain stable at current levels, going forward.
BMA Capital Management Ltd. 801 Unitower, I.I.Chundrigar Road, Karachi, 74000, Pakistan For further queries, please contact:
bmaresearch@bmacapital.com or call UAN: 111‐262‐111
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