INTERNATIONAL FOOD

POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty

Climate Change and Food Security in

Pacific Islands:
Impacts and Proposed Strategic Action
Mark W. Rosegrant and Rowena Valmonte
Valmonte--Santos
Environment and Production Technology Division

ADB-Regional Workshop on Responding to Climate Change in the

Pacific: Moving from Strategy to Action
Hotel Novotel, Nadi, Fiji
October 12-13, 2010
 Outline

 Drivers of Agricultural Growth and

Food Security
 Agricultural Sector in Pacific Islands
 Projected Changes in Pacific Climate
and their Consequences
 Research Study on Climate Change
and Food Security in the Pacific
Islands

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2

 Drivers of Agricultural Growth and
Food Security
 Demand drivers
• Demand and prices for food, feed, fertilizer, and
energy, land, and water
• Emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration
• Urbanization and income and population growth
• Non--market ecosystem services
Non

 Supply drivers
• Science and technology policy
• Investment in agricultural research
• Management and governance reform
• Climate change
• Water and land scarcity
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
 Climate induced percentage change in
production in 2050: Irrigated Rice

Changes in Asian
production = -27% NCAR A2, no CF
 Climate induced percentage change in
production in 2050: Rainfed Rice

Changes in Asian
production = -12% NCAR A2, no CF
Cropland areas under sea-
sea-level rise of 1 and 3 meters in key
affected countries in the Asia-
Asia-Pacific

Page 6
 Cropland areas under sea-
sea-level rise of 1 and 3 meters,
respectively in key affected countries in the Asia
Asia--Pacific

Page 7
 Impact on International Food Prices

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 8

INTERNATIONAL FOOD
POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty

Agricultural Sector in the

Pacific Islands:
Fiji, Solomon Islands and
Papua New Guinea
 Overview
 Rural communities highly vulnerable to extreme
climatic changes - pose risks to food security and
livelihoods
 Drought, floods, rising sea levels, and other
natural disasters - significant threat
• Natural ecosystems and their resources (land, water,
crops, fisheries, and others)
• Health of rural communities
 Long durations of floods or droughts, diminishing
soil fertility and increasing soil erosion due to
intense rainfall
• Reduce areas of cultivation
• Decrease yields of agricultural crops

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 10

Source: Sombilla et al. 2010
 Overview

 Extreme events jeopardize rural poor’s food

supply and income source
 Rise in sea level
• Critical event that encroaches on land areas and atolls

• Increases soil salinity

• Contaminates water supplies, affecting the food supply

and the health of coastal communities

 Rising sea surface temperatures and

acidification – negative impacts on mangrove
ecosystems, coral reefs, and fisheries resources

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 11

Source: Sombilla et al. 2010
 Overview

 Fisheries
• Essential for food security in the Pacific
Islands
• Main source of protein
• Main source of income for coastal
settlements
• Threats to fisheries will influence both the
source of protein and the source of income

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 12

Source: Sombilla et al. 2010
 Food and Nutrition Security and on Poverty
Reduction in Pacific Islands
Food consumption Proportion of Food deficit of <5 Proportion
(kcal/capita/year)* population below undernourished yrs of
minimum level of population mort population
dietary energy (kcal/person/day) ality below
consumption (%) (%)** poverty line
(%)***
1990 1995 2000 2005 1990- 1995- 2003- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2004 2007 Natio Yr
92 97 05 92 97 02 -06 nal*** indic
ated
FIJI 2592 2728 2872 3001 8 5 <5 - - - - 18 34.3 2007

PNG 65 39.6 2002

SOL 1984 2328 2264 2433 25 13 9 220 190 190 130 70 22.7 2007

*Based on available food supply

**Total number of deaths between birth and 5 years per 1000 live births
***Refers to percentage of population below the basic needs poverty line (includes
food + other essential non-food expenditures (goods and services) that each
household/individuals needs to maintain a basic standard of living)

Sources: FAO Stat; ADB in Sombilla et al 2010

Page 13
 Importance of Fisheries in Food Security

Ranges of Estimated Annual Per Capita Fishery

Product Consumption
Range of estimates
Country
(kg/year/capita)
Fiji Islands 44.0 - 62.0

Papua New Guinea 18.2 - 24.9

Solomon Islands 32.2 - 32.7

Note: Estimates are on a whole fish equivalent

Source: Gillett 2009 in Sombilla et al. 2010

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 14
 Economic Growth and Agriculture

GDP Popula Per Annual growth Share of

growth tion capita rates in agriculture to
(%) growth GDP agriculture (%) total GDP (%)
(%) growth
(%)
2000- 2000- 2000- 1990s 2000- 1990s 2000-
08 08 08 08 08
FIJI 1.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 -0.9 17.8 14.2
PNG 1.9 3.6 -1.4 4.8 1.6 31.4 35.4

SOL 2.1 3.1 -1.0 2.3 4.9 31.0 33.0

Source: ADB 2009 in Sombilla et al. 2010

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 15

 Area Harvested (ha), Fiji, Average from
2006--2008
2006
Major Crops % of total Hectares
Sugar cane 42.9 55,333
Coconuts 38.8 50,000
Rice, paddy 4.3 5,533
Taro (cocoyam) 2.5 3,200
Cassava 1.9 2,467
Pepper (Piper spp.) 1.4 1,800
Roots and Tubers, nes 1.0 1,250
Fresh fruit, nes 0.9 1,100
Pulses, nes 0.8 1,000
Fresh vegetables, nes 0.7 850
Total 100.0 128,986

Source: FAO database 2009

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 16
 Area Harvested (ha), Papua New Guinea,
Average from 2006
2006--2008
Major Crops % of total Hectares
Coconuts 21.0 201,333
Cocoa beans 12.5 120,000
Sweet potatoes 11.9 114,000
Fruit Fresh Nes 11.6 111,333
Oil palm fruit 9.9 94,667
Coffee, green 7.1 68,333
Bananas 6.6 63,000
Taro (cocoyam) 4.5 42,667
Maize, green 2.5 23,500
Roots and Tubers, nes 2.2 21,000
Total 100.0 957,682

Source: FAO database 2009

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 17
 Area Harvested (ha), Solomon Islands,
Average from 2006
2006--2008

Major Crops % of total Hectares

Coconuts 49.6 37,000
Cocoa beans 15.9 11,833
Oil palm fruit 12.1 9,000
Sweet potatoes 8.0 6,000
Pulses, nes 4.3 3,200
Taro (cocoyam) 2.7 2,000
Fruit Fresh Nes 2.2 1,650
Rice, paddy 1.9 1,433
Yams 1.7 1,300
Vegetables fresh nes 0.5 400
Total 100.0 74,622

Source: FAO database 2009

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 18
 Aquaculture Production
Production
Production
Country Commodity per capita
(tons)
(kg/person/yr)

Fiji Islands Tilapia 143 0.17

Tilapia, Carp,
Papua New Guinea 67 0.01
Trout

Source: Gillett 2009 in Sombilla et al. 2010

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 19

INTERNATIONAL FOOD
POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty

Projected Changes in Climate

and Oceans Relative to 1980
1980--99
Levels and their Key
Consequences
 Climate Threat: Drought and Declining
Rainfall
Projected Changes
Key Consequence(s)
(2070)
 Plant and animal stress-heat, pest and disease
incidence: slow growth and low yields
 Water shortages for agriculture purposes: drying
of streams and ponds
Northern Pacific:  Slow recharge of water lenses
1.00oC–4.17oC  Changes in soil quality
Southern Pacific:  Affect health, production and reproductive
0.99oC-3.99oC capacity of animals
 Slow growth of corals/coral bleaching
 Decreased fish catches
 Low productivity of farmers
 Increased risk of fires
Page 21
Source: FAO 2008 in Sombilla et al. 2010
 Climate Threat: Sea Level Rise
Projected Changes Key Consequence(s)
 Salt water intrusion and flooding of low-lying
farm/settlement areas
 Erosion of soil and shorelines/coastal areas
8-51 cms depending
 Inundation of habitats for coconut crabs and
on extent of emissions
other shoreline species
that accumulate
greenhouse gases  Slow reef and coral growth/coral die-back
affecting fisheries production
 Inundation of coastal springs and underground
freshwater sources

Source: FAO 2008 in Sombilla et al. 2010

Page 22
 Climate Threat: Acidification of Ocean
from CO2 Absorption
Projected Changes Key Consequence(s)

Acidification of ocean from CO2

absorption
 pH level expected to drop by 0.3
 Adversely impacting coral growth
to 0.4
rates
 Aragonite saturation levels in the
ocean is expected to be reduced
from >4 to 3.0-3.5.

Source: FAO 2008 in Sombilla et al. 2010

Page 23
 Climate Threat: Irregular Rainfall Patterns

Projected Changes Key Consequence(s)

• Alleviate water shortage especially
on small islands
• Erosion of soil and soil nutrients
• Flooding of agricultural lands
• Sedimentation of reefs and lagoons
Northern Pacific: –2.7% to +25.8% affecting fishery
• Run-off that cause pollution of
Southern Pacific: –14% to +14.6% underground water sources/wells,
mangroves and coastal areas/marine
species
• Growth of less desirable pasture
species
• Spread of pest and diseases

Source: FAO 2008 in Sombilla et al. 2010 Page 24

INTERNATIONAL FOOD
POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty

Research Study on Climate

Change and Food Security:
Adaptation Mechanisms for
Sound Economic Livelihood in
the Pacific Islands
 Research Study

 Project countries: Fiji, Solomon Islands,

Papua New Guinea

 Duration: October 2010 – September 2011

 Funding Agency: Pacific Department,

Asian Development Bank

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 26

 Objectives
 To assess the impacts of climate change on food
security, availability, and accessibility, and how this
influences the livelihood of Pacific Island
communities
 To determine the potential adaptation mechanisms
and coping strategies that will ensure food security
and enhance livelihoods for the rural communities
 To recommend policy options for agriculture,
fisheries, and food security
• Strengthen the support from national governments
• Technical and financial assistance from regional and
international organizations for rural communities facing
climate change

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 27

 Scope of Work
 Capacity strengthening - Research partners will be
involved in all stages of research

 Data collection - secondary data sources, projections,

and other information from a number of relevant
climate change data/information compiled and
analyzed (using standard climate or scientific models)

 Developing scenarios – short

short--, medium-
medium-, long-
long-term
projections –
• Develop qualitative and quantitative scenarios, depending on
data availability
• Describe the impacts of climate change on food security,
agriculture, and fisheries in the Pacific
• Understand the potential effects of climatic variability until
2050

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 28

 Scope of Work
 Risks and vulnerabilities - Assess risks to and
vulnerabilities of agriculture and fisheries due to
climate change with the acknowledgment that
responses to climate change may vary widely
 Potential adaptation mechanisms and coping
strategies
• Identify potential adaptation mechanisms and coping
strategies at the country level that can be incorporated into
the countries’ national climate change plans
• Require an integrated analytical approach to study the effects
of alternative economic policies and institutions and climate
adaptation strategies on agriculture

Regional workshop will be conducted to present and

disseminate the results of the study

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 29

 Methodology
 Adaptation needs and potential
• Changes in climatic conditions affect location
location--specific
variation in the amount of precipitation and level of
temperature, among others
• Use the range of climate conditions expected in 2050 to
assess how suitability would change
• Location
Location--specific change in suitability for existing crops
provides a clear indication of where adaptation efforts would
need to be focused
 Country case studies – Fiji, Solomon Islands
and Papua New Guinea
• Countries were chosen based on the importance of their
agricultural, fisheries, and economic growth to the Pacific
Islands region
• Represent a range of likely outcomes with respect to climate
change and agriculture, including fisheries
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 30
 Methodology
 Agricultural yield
• DSSAT crop model for agricultural
technologies
• Technical reports (secondary data)
• SPAM crop area and yield database

 Prices and Income Effects

• Published reports
• IMPACT and DREAM models for economic
returns
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 31
 Analytic Framework for Ex
Ex--ante Assessment
of Climate Change Adaptation Technologies
Crop production data Soil, climate
Production system Crop management Multi-scale
Satellite imagery of land cover Production technology
Crop suitability

SPAM DSSAT

Spatial distribution of crop area, Productivity change due to Pixel

yield and production technology

Technology Technology adoption Multi-pixel

Domain Time lag
Technology spillover?

IMPACT DREAM
Region
Baseline parameters Producer/consumer surplus
Demand/supply/price projections Return to technology

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 32

 Technologies for Adaptation to Improve
Agricultural Output
 Removing constraints or modifying farmgate
prices
• Agricultural extension
• Agricultural research
• Crop and farm insurance
• Road construction

 Compensate for adverse effects of sea

sea--level rise
• Dikes
• Shift to aquaculture
• Salt
Salt--resistant varieties and crops
• Mangrove afforestation
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 33
 Technologies

 Compensate for changes in adverse

weather events
• Drought--resistant varieties and crops
Drought
• Flood-
Flood-resistant varieties and crops
• Improved efficiency in irrigation systems
• Increasing access to irrigation
• Other water use efficiency technologies
• Improve drainage in overly wet areas

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 34

 Technologies

 General agricultural improving

technologies
• Shifts in planting months
• Shifts in crop rotation
• New varieties and crops
• Changes is planting density
• Changes in nutrient treatment
• Use of GM
GM--crops
• Land leveling

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 35

 Expected Outputs
 Technical report - current economic status of and
the potential effects of climate change
• Agriculture and fisheries production
• Risk assessment and vulnerability
• Adaptation policies that will complement national plans
on climate change
• Policy recommendations
 Policy brief
• Describing impacts of climate change on food security
in the three countries
• Potential adaptation projects to address food security
issues
• Policy recommendations to tackle food security threats
arising from climate change
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 36
www.ifpri.org

Thank you
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE