Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Amr Farouk
Renewables Academy
RENAC
Trennfolientitel hinzufügen
www.renac.de 1
Our agenda today
• Recent cost development
• Project participants
• Project phases
• Required contracts
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Our agenda today
• Project development and realization
• Resource assessment
• Site selection
• Permitting process
• Project economics
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Recent cost development
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Evolution of the cost breakdown of small PV systems
-----------------UPDATE -----------------
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Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
1. LCOE = Total Life Cycle Cost / Total Lifetime Energy Production
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Cost reduction trend for grid-connected PV
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PV module international spot market price index
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Crystalline PV modules spot market in Europe (Dec 2013)
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The idea of grid-parity: towards competitiveness
LCOE (PV)
Time
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Levelized cost of energy
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Project participants
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Typical characteristics of RE projects
Clear start and end dates which limit the “project life” and
separate it from other, permanently existing
organizations or ventures
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Typical players in RE projects
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Renewable energy project owner
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Renewable energy project sponsor
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Renewable energy project customer
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Renewable energy project regulator
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Renewable energy project public
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Project phases
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Renewable energy project cycle
Produc-
Project
Project Alterna- Project tive Project
ready for
goal tive plan set capacity wound
operatio
defined selected up exhauste up
nal use
d
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Financial tasks during the project cycle
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The RE project appraisal wheel
REP-specific
Non-monetary
performance
effects
measures
Technology-
REP financing
specific cost
options
structure
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Required contracts
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Project participants & RE project structure
– wind energy example
Sponsor(s)
Initiate project,
Project provide equity
Offtake-
Developer Agreement Long-term
Equity Offtaker
Siting, permiting
Purchases
project output
Development Rights- General
Purchase-Contract Partner(s) Third Party
Investors
Turbine Supplier EPC-Contractor
Turbine Supply
Agreement
EPC-Contract Local Authority
Delivers Turbines
Turn-key-ready Project Company Buiding permission
installation
(SPV)
Commercial General
Owns and operates project, partner for
different agreements
Service Provider Management Land Lease
Contract Contract Landowner(s)
Bookkeeping, controlling,
general administration Lease land
Debt
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Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)
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Grid connection agreement
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Engineering, Procurement and Construction
Contract (EPC)
Fixed price
Fixed completion date with penalties
Performance guarantees
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Further key project contracts
The operations and maintenance (O&M) agreement is a
contract with a technical service company operating and
maintaining the RE project for the life of the project
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Key success factors in RE projects
Favourable policy framework: Fixed feed in
tariff and guaranteed and enforceable access
to the grid
Positive attitude of the public and specifically
the neighbours of the RE project
Transparent, clearly defined laws, regulations
and processes and their effective
implementation
RE resources sufficient and according to
assessment
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Key success factors in RE projects
Reliable, experienced and solvent project
participants
Sound set up of contracts
Available and proven technology (incl.
maintenance)
Trained and experienced staff available
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Project development and realization
Project development
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Project screening
Solar radiation analysis
Enviromental analysis
Area analysis Region permitting and authorisation process
Technical feasibility
Risk evaluation
Pre-feasibility Lease/Purchase agreements
Pre-financial analysis
Due Diligences
Project Grid connection
Development Basic engineering
Project design
Project Financial closing
EPC – turnkey contract
Realisation Permitting process
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Process phases and organisational roles
Gate Project Gate
Pre- analysis Go – Go – Project realisation
No Go
Development No Go
Insurance
Legal support
Component analysis Technical Due Diligence Component analysis
Technical
Pre-financing
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Timeline solar PV plant projects
200x 200y
Activities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
Development Phase
Bridge Financing
Project Finance
Construction
Grid Connection
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Project development and realization
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Project realisation: Engineering
Detailed technical design Civil engineering
Components fixed installation /
Norms&codes one or two-axis
Source: RENAC
Electrical engineering tracker systems?
… Statics
Costs: Mounting time and material
Technical
Design
Plant layout
Shadowing
Efficcient use of land
Grid connection
Wiring losses
…
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Project realisation: Construction
Logistics & Procurement Project management
Detailed down-payment plan according to: Project schedule, involving all subcontractors
the construction progress and Budget control
quality material delivered Precise and up-to-date reporting
1 MWp = 5.000 – 10.000 modules Change and Scope Control
Local waste management Quality control
Professional Quality Control Concept Responsibilities and critical
concept of delivered components tasks list
Construction
Delivery and purchase contract Qualified site manager
Price and terms of payment Qualified subcontractors
Terms of delivery Materials reception
Other (Bail and title retention…) Compliance with HSE requirements (1000 V
EPC contract DC / 20.000 V AC, rooftop mounting)
based on the “silver book” of FIDIC Well organized site
Turnkey delivery and exact schedule Safeguard concept (theft prevention)
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Project development and realisation
Project realisation –
Transportation and Installation
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Procurement and transport
1. PV is modular, therefore special transport is
not required
1. Standard trucks Source: SMA Solar Technology AG
3. DC cable drums
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Construction: PV plant installation
Source: RENAC
Source: Hammer&Steel
Source: Sunset
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Project development and realisation
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Operation and maintenance
1. Availability of PV plant is very high, 99% availability is
common
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Operation and maintenance: activities overview
KW 20x
On-site inspection
Preventive maintenance
Inverters
String check
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Resource Assessment
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Why is solar resource assessment so important?
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Long-time averages and volatility of solar radiation
10% deviation
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Conclusions on solar radiation data
1. Data of different origin and quality are available, but NO
experimental data are precise!
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Site evaluation and surveying
For the two basic different applications
different sites can be suitable:
Roof mounted PV plants
Private homes
Industrial roofs
Governmental buildings
Sports buildings
Real Estate companies
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Site characteristics
1. Site characteristics
1. Usable / not usable areas
2. Statics assessment
3. Shadowing
4. Possible infrastructure restricting
for installation of the plants
according to the check list
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Potentially required permissions
Archaeological Overhead
departments transmission
line
Transformer
station
Historical
route
Civil aviation
authorities
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Potentially required permissions
Overhead
transmission
line
Railway Planned
authorities? earth cable
PV plant –
grid
Grid
operator
Owner of
this area?
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Potentially required permissions
Source: Hammer&Steel
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Authorities in charge
1. Local communities/planning authority
7. Military authorities
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Overall % share of legal-administrative costs over total
project development costs (excluding PV equipment)
80 78
70 69
70
61
60 56
53
51
50 46 45
% 44
40 36 36
32
30
30 28
22 23
20 17 18 18
11 12
10 9 10 11
10 8
0 0 0 0 0 0
0
Bulgaria Czech England France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Poland Portugal Spain
Republic
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Typical faults in the past
Based upon investigations done in the German 100 000 roof program by the
Fraunhofer Institute ISE (1997!!!):
1. The most reliable components were: modules,
DC cabling and combiner boxes-----------------UPDATE -----------------
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Technological risks
1. Tolerances in manufacturer specifications
1. Flash-tests very precise for wafer-based modules, less developed tests for
TF
2. Guaranteed power in sale contracts: nominal or minimum power?
2. Degradation: Cash flow models assume a life time of 20 years or more
1. Mono- and polycrystalline modules are suitable for a project finance
2. Long-term experience values for just one manufacturer of TF module
available
3. Trackers:
1. Higher yields ( up to 30%) barely pay off for higher investments?
2. Accuracy of tracking algorithm for concentrator technologies?
4. Maintenance is critical for debt providers
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Quality marks, seals and standards
1. IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission)
1. There is a range of IEC standards covering modules and
other system components (e.g. IEC 61215 (Crystalline),
IEC 61646 (Thin film), IEC 61730 (Safety))
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Guarantees and warranties
1. Usually for 25 years
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Risk management: yield forecast
1. Yield forecast through third-party appraisers
2. Long-term experience with wafer-based modules
3. Spectral response range of thin-film modules is narrower than wafer-based
modules => The small amount of measurement stations with spectral
information leads to further inaccuracies in yield forecasts
4. Shading analysis
5. Several yield forecast analysis are advisable
6. Simulation models are quite precise ( total tolerance +/-5%)
7. Factors affecting tolerances:
1. Quality of the weather data ( Weather stations versus data interpolation)
2. Regional factors (dust, …)
3. Natural deviations in radiation
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Project bankability
Basic framework conditions
Are all the permits obtained?
Operating costs Grid connection clarified Proven technology
Detailed planning operating IEC certificates
costs Manufacturers at least 3
Comparable to benchmark years production
Reserves up to 10% of Fixed panels preferred to
investment cost until tracking
operating year 10 Project Inverters quality
Operational risk
bankability Long term O&M-Contract
Predictable energy yield
Simulation software (incl.bonus/malus)
Third party yield certificate Guaranteed park availability
for significant loan amounts Appropriate insurance
Construction
package
Experienced contractor
Site security concept
Reference projects from
contractor
Turnkey & fixed price EPC-
Contract
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Project economics
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Investment Costs
Project Development
Construction costs Sales Costs
costs
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Sample CAPEX: 500 kW roof-top project
Project development cost Euro 100,000
Power System Study Euro 25,000
Set-up SPV, lawyer… Euro 5,000
Total project cost Euro 130,000
Modules 1,000 Euro/kWp
Inverter 300 Euro/kWp
Mounting structure 250 Euro/kWp
Installation, cabling etc 450 Euro/kWp
System cost 2,000 Euro/kWp
Total cost for 500 kW Euro 1,000,000
Total project cost Euro 130,000
Turn-key plant cost total Euro 1,130,000
Turn-key plant cost per kWp Euro 2,260
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Sample OPEX of a 500kW system
1. O + M (labor) 1,500 Euro (2% inflation pa)
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Project economics
Electricity yield estimation
(for estimating the revenues)
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Revenues in PV projects
PV electricity (Energy Yield) Sales price
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Photovoltaic electricity yield
1. Our input is the solar radiation received, the solar
resource
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Reasons for losses (simplified)
1. Losses before module (Pre-conversion losses)
1. Module tolerance
2. Shadows
3. Dirt – 5 % - more than 20% in arid regions with little rain
(maintenance dependent)
4. Snow
4. O&M downtimes
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Losses in a PV system (example)
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PV electricity yield
1. Energy output
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Estimating PV plant electricity yield
1. Note: Only for rough estimations!
2. Remember:
Interpretation:
If the sun shone permanently at 1000 W/m², how many
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Example for electricity yield estimation
1. Go to PV GIS
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RENAC Solar Pro Forma Financial Model
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Further sources of information
▪ Grid-connected Solar Electric Systems by Geoff Stapleton
& Susan Neil, Chapter 13, Marketing and Economics of
Grid-connected PV Systems, and Chapter 14, Case
Studies, Earthscan Expert Series, 2012
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