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Grid-tied PV projects (development,

management, economics & financing)

Amr Farouk

Renewables Academy
RENAC

Trennfolientitel hinzufügen
www.renac.de 1
Our agenda today
• Recent cost development

• Project participants

• Project phases

• Required contracts

• Key success factors

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Our agenda today
• Project development and realization

• Resource assessment

• Site selection

• Permitting process

• Specific risks and risk mitigation

• Project economics

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Recent cost development

Costs and LCOE evolution

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Evolution of the cost breakdown of small PV systems

-----------------UPDATE -----------------

1. BOS cost factor has become more important while relative


importance of modules has decreased

2. Note: Figures are only indicative, depending on system type, shares


of the cost factors vary!

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Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
1. LCOE = Total Life Cycle Cost / Total Lifetime Energy Production

2. Analytical tool to compare alternative technologies with different


scales of operation, investments or operating periods.

3. Strongly depends on assumptions

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Cost reduction trend for grid-connected PV

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PV module international spot market price index

Data from www.pvxchange.com – Net prices of crystalline modules

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Crystalline PV modules spot market in Europe (Dec 2013)

Trend since Trend since


Origin € / Wp
11/13 01/13
Germany 0.69 - 1.43 % - 11.54%
China 0.57 0% = 7.55 %
Japan 0.7 - 1.41 % - 15.66%

Net prices in € per Wp; Source: www.pvxchange.com

Only module prices from the international spot market!


The price for a typical turn-key system in Germany has to be multiplied by 2 to 2.5 for
crystalline technology

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The idea of grid-parity: towards competitiveness

Power from grid


Price per kWh

LCOE (PV)

Time

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Levelized cost of energy

Data from „Levelized cost of electricity renewable


energy technologies” - Fraunhofer Institut for
Solar Energy - 2013
Utility scale power plants: lower and higher efficient power plants with corresponding investment costs and full load hours
Small diesel: < 50 kW, subsidized diesel price in Egypt
Solar energy: DNI of 2000 kWh/(m² a) → MENA region

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Project participants

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Typical characteristics of RE projects

 Clear start and end dates which limit the “project life” and
separate it from other, permanently existing
organizations or ventures

 Limited financial and human resources available for


project implementation (and typically pre-determined at
the beginning of the project)

 Project forms a distinct set of tasks and actions which is


separated from other activities that are carried out by the
involved parties on a repeating basis (“day-to-day work”),

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Typical players in RE projects

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Renewable energy project owner

 Bears the commercial risk of project realization and


owns the productive capacity of the project after project
realization.

 Benefits from the project’s productive capacity during its


usage phase, e.g. by selling the energy or the heat
produced to REP customers.

 Bears the commercial and technical risk of project failure


and operates the project during usage phase.

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Renewable energy project sponsor

 Provides (part of) the necessary capital for realizing the


project.
 Main interest is in receiving an appropriate return for the
capital provided (in the form of interest or profit) and in
minimizing the risk of losing part of or all of the capital
provided (financing risk).

 Shares the owner’s interest in getting the project “off the


ground” and in putting it into operational mode.

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Renewable energy project customer

 Consumes the productive output of the project after its


completion

 Main interest is in a fast project completion and in a


stable supply of the project output at an acceptable cost
(price) during the usage phase.

 Interests of project sponsors / REP owners and project


customers can conflict considerably, since low prices for
REP customers mean lower returns for REP owners and
REP sponsors.

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Renewable energy project regulator

 Sets the legal (and sometimes also partly the


commercial) framework within which the project is
realized and operated.

 Typically pursues own goals that are not focused on a


particular individual project, but rather on societal and/or
macro-economic factors, such as stable energy supply,
reduction of pollution, correction of market failures
(external cost), etc.

 Typically is a public organization (regulation authority) or


a state institution / the state itself.

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Renewable energy project public

 The party that is affected by the REP’s indirect effects.

 Indirect effects are all those effects that are caused by


the REP but are not sold by the REP owner to the REP
customers – e.g. reduced pollution.

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Project phases

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Renewable energy project cycle
Produc-
Project
Project Alterna- Project tive Project
ready for
goal tive plan set capacity wound
operatio
defined selected up exhauste up
nal use
d

Project Project Project Project Project shut-


Project usage
identification assessment planning realization down

The realized project result is


A change from the current put to productive use (e.g.
status is deemed necessary, generation of electric energy).
The actions and measures
an envisaged future status
necessary to realize the selected
(“target”) is developed.
alternative are identified and
combined in a consistent
planning.

Possible alternatives to realize The project result is wound


the envisaged future state are up / decommissioned.
identified and assessed. The project idea is put into reality,
construction work is carried out,
equipment is installed, etc.

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Financial tasks during the project cycle

Project Project Project Project Project shut-


Project usage
identification assessment planning realization down

Financial project appraisal, Project Management accounting,


project planning control cost control

Financial management of renewable energy projects

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The RE project appraisal wheel

REP-specific
Non-monetary
performance
effects
measures

REP risks and Public sector


uncertainties considerations
RE Project
attractive-
ness
Public
End-of-life
programmes,
considerations
regulation

Technology-
REP financing
specific cost
options
structure

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Required contracts

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Project participants & RE project structure
– wind energy example
Sponsor(s)
Initiate project,
Project provide equity
Offtake-
Developer Agreement Long-term
Equity Offtaker
Siting, permiting
Purchases
project output
Development Rights- General
Purchase-Contract Partner(s) Third Party
Investors
Turbine Supplier EPC-Contractor
Turbine Supply
Agreement
EPC-Contract Local Authority

Delivers Turbines
Turn-key-ready Project Company Buiding permission
installation
(SPV)
Commercial General
Owns and operates project, partner for
different agreements
Service Provider Management Land Lease
Contract Contract Landowner(s)
Bookkeeping, controlling,
general administration Lease land
Debt

Technical Service Bank


Service & Spares Provider O&M Project Facility
Agreement Agreement
Full-Service O&M, Provides project debt
Insurance financing

Source: ENERTRAG Structured Finance

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Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)

 Contract between the Renewable Energy - SPV and the


buyer, who purchases the facility’s electrical energy
output.

 In order to reduce off-take risk and ensure the project’s


bankability, this agreement should contain a defined
purchase price for each kilowatt hour (kWh) of generated
energy for the duration of the project

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Grid connection agreement

 Agreement with the local medium / high-voltage grid


operator

 Allows the RE plant to be connected to the electric


power system and therefore to distribute its output.

 A separate grid usage agreement might be needed in


addition

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Engineering, Procurement and Construction
Contract (EPC)

 Agreement with a project management and/or


construction company which constructs the entire RE
plant on a turn-key basis

 EPC contract should include

Fixed price
Fixed completion date with penalties
Performance guarantees

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Further key project contracts
 The operations and maintenance (O&M) agreement is a
contract with a technical service company operating and
maintaining the RE project for the life of the project

 Land lease contracts are to define the relationship with the


landowners and to ensure access to the RE resource (in case
land plots are not purchased)

 The project facility agreement is the loan agreement under


which the financing bank(s) provide debt for the project

 The shareholder agreement concluded between the owner(s)


of the project company and defines their rights and obligations

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Key success factors in RE projects
 Favourable policy framework: Fixed feed in
tariff and guaranteed and enforceable access
to the grid
 Positive attitude of the public and specifically
the neighbours of the RE project
 Transparent, clearly defined laws, regulations
and processes and their effective
implementation
 RE resources sufficient and according to
assessment

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Key success factors in RE projects
 Reliable, experienced and solvent project
participants
 Sound set up of contracts
 Available and proven technology (incl.
maintenance)
 Trained and experienced staff available

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Project development and realization

Project development

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Project screening
 Solar radiation analysis
 Enviromental analysis
Area analysis  Region permitting and authorisation process

 Technical feasibility
 Risk evaluation
Pre-feasibility  Lease/Purchase agreements
 Pre-financial analysis

 Due Diligences
Project  Grid connection
Development  Basic engineering

 Project design
Project  Financial closing
 EPC – turnkey contract
Realisation  Permitting process

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Process phases and organisational roles
Gate Project Gate
Pre- analysis Go – Go – Project realisation
No Go
Development No Go

 Country analysis  Legal Due Diligence  Contracts


Legal

 Insurance

Legal support
 Component analysis  Technical Due Diligence  Component analysis
Technical

 Technical pre-  Yield  Technical pre-


configuration  Technical Design configuration
 Cost analysis Optimisation  Cost analysis
 Project Management
Costs Construction Costs… Costs

 Financing concept  Financial Due Diligence  Financing concept


Financial

 Pre-financing

www.renac.de ‹#›
Timeline solar PV plant projects
200x 200y

Activities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6

 Development Phase

 Due Diligence (Legal, technical,


financial)

 Permits & Authorisation

 Engineering – Technical Design

 Bridge Financing

 Application Project Finance

 Project Finance

 Construction

 Grid Connection

 Operation (potentially Sale)

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Project development and realization

Project realisation - overview

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Project realisation: Engineering
Detailed technical design Civil engineering
Components fixed installation /
Norms&codes one or two-axis
Source: RENAC
Electrical engineering tracker systems?
… Statics
Costs: Mounting time and material
Technical
Design
Plant layout
Shadowing
Efficcient use of land
Grid connection
Wiring losses

www.renac.de ‹#›
Project realisation: Construction
Logistics & Procurement Project management

 Detailed down-payment plan according to:  Project schedule, involving all subcontractors
 the construction progress and  Budget control
 quality material delivered  Precise and up-to-date reporting
 1 MWp = 5.000 – 10.000 modules  Change and Scope Control
 Local waste management  Quality control
 Professional Quality Control Concept  Responsibilities and critical
concept of delivered components tasks list
Construction
 Delivery and purchase contract  Qualified site manager
 Price and terms of payment  Qualified subcontractors
 Terms of delivery  Materials reception
 Other (Bail and title retention…)  Compliance with HSE requirements (1000 V
 EPC contract DC / 20.000 V AC, rooftop mounting)
 based on the “silver book” of FIDIC  Well organized site
 Turnkey delivery and exact schedule  Safeguard concept (theft prevention)

Contracts Site supervision

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Project development and realisation
Project realisation –
Transportation and Installation

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Procurement and transport
1. PV is modular, therefore special transport is
not required
1. Standard trucks Source: SMA Solar Technology AG

2. Since no very large items are being


transported, no special preparation of the roads
is needed
1. Like in wind blade transport

3. Largest items are:


1. Transformers
2. Standard housings for inverters
Source: A. Tiedemann, RENAC

3. DC cable drums
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Construction: PV plant installation

Source: RENAC

Source: Hammer&Steel

Source: Sunset

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Project development and realisation

Operation and Maintenance

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Operation and maintenance
1. Availability of PV plant is very high, 99% availability is
common

2. Since fix-tilted PV systems do not have any moving


parts, PV plants need relatively little maintenance

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Operation and maintenance: activities overview
KW 20x

Activities per month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

 On-site inspection

 care of green areas (pasture, etc)

 Preventive maintenance

 Inverters

 Mounting structure /tracking


system

 String check

 Unscheduled maintenance services

 Low/medium voltage maintenance

 Ongoing plant monitoring and reporting

 (Opt) Solar field cleaning

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Resource Assessment

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Why is solar resource assessment so important?

1. High impact on the LCOE

2. Crucial parameter for:


1. Site selection
2. Plant design
3. Economics of plant

Source: the PVGIS website

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Long-time averages and volatility of solar radiation

10% deviation

Data: S. Lohmann, Solar Energy 80 (2006), Deviation from 18-year mean

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Conclusions on solar radiation data
1. Data of different origin and quality are available, but NO
experimental data are precise!

2. Overview is possible with free data maps

3. More detailed data (spatial resolution, hourly time


series) needed for specific site evaluations

4. Satellite data have sufficient history and accuracy for


site evaluation

5. Long term ground based measurements provide best


data and are helpful for checks/calibration of satellite
data
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Sources of radiation data
1. PVGIS, EU
1. http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/solres/solrespvgis.htm

2. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA


1. http://www.nrel.gov/csp/troughnet/solar_data.html

3. NASA – horizontal only


1. http://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/sse/

4. Digital data bases (e.g. Meteonorm)


1. http://www.meteonorm.com/pages/en/meteonorm.php

5. Simulation software (selection)


1. PV*Sol: http://www.valentin.de/
2. PVSys: http://www.pvsyst.com/

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Site evaluation and surveying
For the two basic different applications
different sites can be suitable:
 Roof mounted PV plants
 Private homes
 Industrial roofs
 Governmental buildings
 Sports buildings
 Real Estate companies

 Ground based PV plants


 Agricultural land
 Industrial sites
 Military sites
 Deserts Source: Google Earth

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Site characteristics
1. Site characteristics
1. Usable / not usable areas
2. Statics assessment
3. Shadowing
4. Possible infrastructure restricting
for installation of the plants
according to the check list

2. -> See separate check list and


next section

Source: Google Earth


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Permitting process

Potentially required permissions

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Potentially required permissions

Archaeological Overhead
departments transmission
line

Transformer
station

Historical
route
Civil aviation
authorities

Source: Google Earth

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Potentially required permissions
Overhead
transmission
line

Spatial plan Transformer


for this area? station

Railway Planned
authorities? earth cable
PV plant –
grid

Grid
operator
Owner of
this area?

Source: Google Earth

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Potentially required permissions

Ramming: potential danger


through military objects;
archeological artefacts?

Source: Hammer&Steel

Protected species on site?

Source: Nick Scott-Smith


Source: Google Earth License: Creative Commons - Attribution 2.0 Generic

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Authorities in charge
1. Local communities/planning authority

developers and investors; Alasdair Miller and Ben Lumby for


2. Environmental agencies/departments

Source: Utility Scale Solar Power Plants, A Guide For


3. Archaeological agencies/departments

the International Finance Corporation (IFC)


4. Civil aviation and other transportation authorities

5. Health and safety agencies/departments

6. Electricity utilities/grid operators

7. Military authorities

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Overall % share of legal-administrative costs over total
project development costs (excluding PV equipment)
80 78

70 69
70
61
60 56
53
51
50 46 45
% 44

40 36 36
32
30
30 28
22 23
20 17 18 18

11 12
10 9 10 11
10 8

0 0 0 0 0 0
0
Bulgaria Czech England France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Poland Portugal Spain
Republic

Residential rooftop Commercial rooftop Industrial ground-mounted

Source: PV Legal Final Report, February 2012


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Specific risks and risk mitigation

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Typical faults in the past
Based upon investigations done in the German 100 000 roof program by the
Fraunhofer Institute ISE (1997!!!):
1. The most reliable components were: modules,
DC cabling and combiner boxes-----------------UPDATE -----------------

2. Most faults in the PV array come from bypass Breakdown Faults


or string diodes
Other
faults
3. Mounting: Wind loads were not taken into 27%
Inverter
consideration and wrong material choice lead to PV Array 63%
corrosion: brass screws must not be used in 10%
galvanized structures!

4. Most faults occur in the inverter, due to


incorrect dimensioning, cable sizes and wrong
voltage matching between inverter and PV
array
Source: Fraunhofer ISE
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Technological (functional) risk
Description Mitigation
 Only proven technology with a good track
 Technology might record should be chosen
not achieve the  Performance warranties on equipment
expected  Certified modules and inverters according
performance IEC and/or UL standards
parameters
(performance ratio  Certification carried out only by an
too low) independently certified testing laboratory

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Technological risks
1. Tolerances in manufacturer specifications
1. Flash-tests very precise for wafer-based modules, less developed tests for
TF
2. Guaranteed power in sale contracts: nominal or minimum power?
2. Degradation: Cash flow models assume a life time of 20 years or more
1. Mono- and polycrystalline modules are suitable for a project finance
2. Long-term experience values for just one manufacturer of TF module
available
3. Trackers:
1. Higher yields ( up to 30%) barely pay off for higher investments?
2. Accuracy of tracking algorithm for concentrator technologies?
4. Maintenance is critical for debt providers
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Quality marks, seals and standards
1. IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission)
1. There is a range of IEC standards covering modules and
other system components (e.g. IEC 61215 (Crystalline),
IEC 61646 (Thin film), IEC 61730 (Safety))

2. CEC (Commission of the European Community) Joint


Research Centre in Ispra, Italy

3. UL (Underwriters Laboratory), USA

4. ASTM (American Society for Testing and Materials)

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Guarantees and warranties
1. Usually for 25 years

2. 80% of rated output

3. What if the manufacturer is no longer in business?

4. What if the modules to be replaced are no longer being


manufactured

5. Read the small print, especially for large purchases /


projects

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Risk management: yield forecast
1. Yield forecast through third-party appraisers
2. Long-term experience with wafer-based modules
3. Spectral response range of thin-film modules is narrower than wafer-based
modules => The small amount of measurement stations with spectral
information leads to further inaccuracies in yield forecasts
4. Shading analysis
5. Several yield forecast analysis are advisable
6. Simulation models are quite precise ( total tolerance +/-5%)
7. Factors affecting tolerances:
1. Quality of the weather data ( Weather stations versus data interpolation)
2. Regional factors (dust, …)
3. Natural deviations in radiation

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Project bankability
Basic framework conditions
 Are all the permits obtained?
Operating costs  Grid connection clarified Proven technology
 Detailed planning operating  IEC certificates
costs  Manufacturers at least 3
 Comparable to benchmark years production
Reserves up to 10% of  Fixed panels preferred to
investment cost until tracking
operating year 10 Project Inverters quality

Operational risk
bankability  Long term O&M-Contract
Predictable energy yield
 Simulation software (incl.bonus/malus)
 Third party yield certificate  Guaranteed park availability
for significant loan amounts Appropriate insurance
Construction
package
 Experienced contractor
Site security concept
 Reference projects from
contractor
Turnkey & fixed price EPC-
Contract

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Project economics

PV project cost structure

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Investment Costs
Project Development
Construction costs Sales Costs
costs

 Project acquisition  Components  Grid connection  Cost of equity acquisition


 Own development  Module: 1.000 €/kWp  Transformer: > 30.000€  Prospect
 Inverter: 200 €/ kWp  Grid connection: 20– 50
 Buying projects rights  Mailings
€/kWp
 Structure: 150–250 €/
 Pricing  Events
kWp  Remote Control/
 Depends on market  DC Cable: 50 – 75 €/ Monitoring  Advertisement
situation kWp  Protection  Sales fee
 Germany 50 – 150 €/kWp  Mounting  Lightning protection
 Own employees
 RO Europe 100 – 1.000  Mechanical: 100– 150  Theft and vandalism
 External sales partners
€/kWp €/kWp protection
 Electrical: 100 –150
€/kWp

Civil engineer Lawyer Bank fee


Static of rooftop Contracts Independent output prognosis
costs:
Other

Static of ground Foundation of company Bridge financing


Ground registry
Upfront lease rate

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Sample CAPEX: 500 kW roof-top project
Project development cost Euro 100,000
Power System Study Euro 25,000
Set-up SPV, lawyer… Euro 5,000
Total project cost Euro 130,000
Modules 1,000 Euro/kWp
Inverter 300 Euro/kWp
Mounting structure 250 Euro/kWp
Installation, cabling etc 450 Euro/kWp
System cost 2,000 Euro/kWp
Total cost for 500 kW Euro 1,000,000
Total project cost Euro 130,000
Turn-key plant cost total Euro 1,130,000
Turn-key plant cost per kWp Euro 2,260
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Sample OPEX of a 500kW system
1. O + M (labor) 1,500 Euro (2% inflation pa)

2. Insurance: 500 Euro pa

3. Inverter maintenance contract: 1,500 Euro (2% inflation


pa)

4. Book keeping, tax advice: 500 Euro pa

5. Roof-top leasing: up to 5% of revenues

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Project economics
Electricity yield estimation
(for estimating the revenues)

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Revenues in PV projects
PV electricity (Energy Yield) Sales price

 Yield calculation should be


 Electricity sales and
performed by experienced
technicians as yield depends on a  Incentives:
large number of technical
 Feed-in-tariffs
parameters
 Electricity sales contract
 Be careful if the same person who
is selling you the projects also  Net metering (sales price =
calculates yield! Especially in savings of own electricity
medium-scale projects. Plausibility Revenues costs)
should be checked!  Certificates – in most cases
 Determination by means of not relevant for PV
simulation software
 Time step simulation
programs:
Greenius. PV*Express.
PV*Sol. PVSYST,
RETScreen, etc

www.renac.de ‹#›
Photovoltaic electricity yield
1. Our input is the solar radiation received, the solar
resource

2. We are using a technical system – i.e. the PV system –


to convert light to useful electricity;

3. Any technical system has physical limitations (module


efficiency) and will create losses

4. Our useful electricity is alternating current (in the case


of grid-tied systems)

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Reasons for losses (simplified)
1. Losses before module (Pre-conversion losses)
1. Module tolerance
2. Shadows
3. Dirt – 5 % - more than 20% in arid regions with little rain
(maintenance dependent)
4. Snow

2. Module losses due to deviation from standard conditions and


temperature-related losses

3. System Losses (~10-15%)


1. Wiring
2. Inverter
3. Transformer (if applicable)

4. O&M downtimes
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Losses in a PV system (example)

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PV electricity yield
1. Energy output

1. The energy (E) delivered by a PV system can be estimated from:

npre Pre-conversion efficiency


nsys System efficiency
nrel Relative efficiency
Pnom Nominal efficiency at STC
h Peak Sun Hours

2. PR is improving with technological development,


currently 75 - 80%

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Estimating PV plant electricity yield
1. Note: Only for rough estimations!

2. Remember:

3. ‘h’ is Peak Sun Hours, unit: hrs

4. Peak Sun Hours = Annual irradiation [kWh/m²*a] /1000


W/m2

Interpretation:
If the sun shone permanently at 1000 W/m², how many
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Example for electricity yield estimation
1. Go to PV GIS

2. Select a site where you want to install a PV system

3. Assume system nominal power

4. Assume a typical performance ratio

5. Estimate the electricity yield!

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RENAC Solar Pro Forma Financial Model

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Further sources of information
▪ Grid-connected Solar Electric Systems by Geoff Stapleton
& Susan Neil, Chapter 13, Marketing and Economics of
Grid-connected PV Systems, and Chapter 14, Case
Studies, Earthscan Expert Series, 2012

▪ Photovoltaic Systems by James P Dunlop, Chapter 15:


Economic Analysis, American Technical Publishers, 2010

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