Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
by
Albert Yang
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Copyright Notice
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Legal
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attempt has been made to assure accuracy, we are not providing any
express or implied warranty as to the accuracy of the content. We do
not accept any liability for error or omission. Examples are provided
for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as
investment advice or strategy.
No representation is being made that any account or trader will or
is likely to achieve profits or loses similar to those disclosed in the
ebook. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By purchasing the ebook, subscribing to our mailing list or using
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The information provided on this ebook is not intended for
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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations,
some of which are mentioned below. No representation is being made
that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to
those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between
hypothetical performance results and actual results subsequently
achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that
they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition,
hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk and no
hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of
financial risk in actual trading.
For example the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a
particular trading program in spite of the trading losses are material
points, which can also adversely affect trading results. There are
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A lot of work that went into putting this document together. I can't tell
you how many countless hours were spent putting together the
information. That means that this information has value, and your
friends, neighbors, and co-workers may want to share it.
If your friends think this information is valuable enough to ask you for
it, they should think it is valuable enough to purchase on their own.
After all, the price is low enough that just about anyone should be able
to afford it. If you can’t afford this book, you shouldn’t be trading,
simple as that!
It should go without saying that you cannot post this document or the
information it contains on any electronic bulletin board, website, ftp
site, newsgroup, discussion board, forum, bbs or any sharing items
like bittorrent, emule, edonkey etc. The only place from which this
document should be available is the website
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Table of Contents
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You might not agree with the contents of this book, but I assure
you there are very few books (as of this writing, I know of none) that
even makes a digestible attempt at not only defining a trend, but
giving you a mathematical basis in which to draw trendlines, and a
good deal of confidence in the trendline you draw. I hope you enjoy
reading this book as much as I enjoyed writing it.
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Forex
I have written this for the Forex (Foreign Exchange) market, but
the information contained herein is not exclusive to Forex.
Everything I cover in this book is applicable to every market. In fact,
I will go ahead and admit something that most of you will find
ridiculous. Because I am a 100% technical analyst, I actually don’t
care if I am trading EUR/USD, corn, gold, pork bellies, Microsoft stock,
or anything else. It is the chart that I look at, and nothing else.
Most of the time, I trade without even knowing what underlining item
I’m looking at. This reduces my bias, and makes me a 100%
technical analyst.
I have tested all of this with stocks, bonds, futures, and of course
Forex. So this is applicable to any and all underlining items. But
please understand that as with the warnings I posted above, if you
have no clue, what you are doing, then you should not be trading,
regardless of instrument. Forex offers demo accounts and I highly
recommend trading with them until such time your skills and
judgment have reached the realm of profitability.
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Assuming you can accept what I just wrote above, let’s move on
to the application of this theory.
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A basic price chart should then be read from right to left, not left
to right. Reading left to right gives weight and priority to the past.
Reading right to left gives priority and weight to the current price.
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That said, it also proves that this theory is held by Tom Demark,
who thus created the definition of local highs and local lows. Any
offset in charting of the bars, will not alter neither DC’s nor TD’s. And
while DC’s have no lag, TD’s technically have no lag, but require 2
more bars for confirmation.
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Slope Theory
Corollary:
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Definition of a Trend
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Given this definition then, the only correct way to draw a trendline is:
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Example:
Here, point A is the highest high in the graph, and B is the high of
the current price bar. The highest high in the graph is drawn to the
high of the current bar, note that it crosses through a few bars,
therefore violating the definition of a trend. We leave point A where
it is, and regress point B back to the point such that:
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Trendline A-> B does not cross through any bars. When we do this,
then the correct trendline looks like this:
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There are bars that are being bisected between line C-D, therefore, D
needs to be regressed to a low in which no bars are bisected between
line C-D.
Given current price, and highest high on the chart (point A) and
lowest low on the chart (point C), these are then the ONLY correct
trendlines you can draw for this screenshot. Remember that prices
are fractal, and thus you can only talk in terms of what you see on the
chart, thus meaning that altering the zoom’ness of the chart will alter
your trading, which is true and should remain true.
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I will give more examples, and go into more details about them.
Let us first identify, the highest high, and lowest low on this chart.
I have marked them as “A” and “X” respectively.
Let us then draw a line, from A to the high of the current bar, and
a line from X to the low of the current bar. You will note that with all
my charts, there are only highs and lows, no opens and closes.
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Note that the line going from A to the high of the current bar,
bisects a few bars. Note also the line from X to the low of the current
bar, also bisects a few bars.
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We will now move that line to the high of every bar, and we keep doing
so until such point in time that no bars are bisected by that line.
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Here, we have finally regressed the end point such that point A, and
our other end point do not bisect any bars in between them.
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I will go back to our reference chart with the A line correctly drawn,
but the X line incorrectly drawn.
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I have marked the two anchor points which are used, with red arrows.
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While I have no way of proving that these two lines are indeed
correct to the current trend, I do know that these two lines do not
violate (mathematically) what we know about trends (on the chart we
are viewing), something that cannot be said for about 95% of all
trendlines drawn on almost all charts I see.
We know: The highest high and lowest low on any given chart,
will always be a reference point, because of the definition of trends.
We know: Any trendlines we draw for the current bar, will not
violate the definition of a trend, i.e. that the trend line will not have
broken previous bars.
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Example chart:
The current price IS the highest price, so the trend is UP! That was
easy!
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Now let us draw a trendline for it. Using the same principle, I
have marked the lowest low on the chart as “L”. I have drawn a
trendline such that the trendline does not violate what we know about
trends. I have marked the other endpoint used with a red arrow.
Please note that no bars are bisected between L and the red arrow.
In this case, there is only ONE trendline on this chart, because the
current price is the highest high.
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I have marked the anchor point as “H” (Highest High point on the
chart), and marked the other anchor point with a red arrow.
Please note that no bars are bisected between H and the red arrow.
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Unanswered Questions
Question: “How do you then know when a trend has been breached
if no trendlines you draw, will ever bisect a bar previous to it? The
definitions you give, seem to render trendlines fairly lobotomized.”
Answer: This I answer this in the 2nd book. In the 2nd book, I will
go into more details about trend biases and previous trend breaches.
I will also cover things like trend fans.
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Answer: Yes and no. This partially answers one of the previously
unanswered questions when you ask this question, if you haven’t
figured that out.. Yes, you need to reevaluate the current trend, with
every new bar. Because we regress the bars when we draw the
trendlines, it might be possible that we need not redraw the line at all,
that our old line still holds true. BUT, assuming the trend has
changed, if you never erase the previous trendlines you drew for
previous bars, you will then know when the current price breaches a
previously drawn trendline. In the 2nd book, I will give a better
definition for it how to deal with and draw breaches, and how to deal
with trend breaks.
Answer: Did you learn something from this book? If so, how can
you be suckered? The reason I have broken this book into two parts,
is because of the anticipated length of time it will take me to generate
the 2nd half. If this book was postponed to wait for the 2nd half to be
finished before it is released, the release date would be pushed back
probably by 6 months to a year, even accounting for Hofstadter's law.
So I made the decision to break the book up, so the first parts I have
finished can be released early to help as many people as possible.
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Conclusion
What started out as, me; being sick and tired of typing the same
thing and answer emails, has resulted in a book that explains the
basics of trends.
However, not reading the 2nd book does not preclude you from
thinking for yourself!! In fact, I HIGHLY recommend you question
everything I have written, and think for yourself. Chances are, with
some effort, you will be able to think of most of the contents from the
2nd book for yourself. I encourage you to think more.
Until we meet again, may all your trades be fruitful and profitable
ones.
“Reading, after a certain age, diverts the mind too much from its
creative pursuits. Any man who reads too much and uses his own
brain too little falls into lazy habits of thinking.” -Albert Einstein
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