Ecological Indicators 10 (2010) 4–14

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Ecological Indicators
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind

Assessment of land use changes through an indicator-based approach:

A case study from the Lamone river basin in Northern Italy
Lorenzo Benini *, Vittoria Bandini, Diego Marazza, Andrea Contin
Environmental Management Research Group, Interdepartmental Center for Research in Environmental Science (CIRSA), University of Bologna,
via Sant’Alberto 163, 48123 Ravenna, Italy

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Article history: This study has been performed in order to evaluate the land use changes and related environmental
Received 22 September 2008 impacts which occurred in recent decades in the Lamone river basin (Northern Italian Apennines). Using
Received in revised form 25 February 2009 the DPSIR indicator-based approach, agricultural land use changes and conversions occurred within the
Accepted 3 March 2009
periods 1976–1994 and 1994–2003, have been associated with the shortage of water in the river and the
modification of the landscape structure. Results show that Lamone river basin in 1976 was mainly
Keywords: dominated by forest (27.4%) and cropland (32.3%) and through the entire period the valley presented a
Land use change
strong persistence of land uses and the main conversions detected are afforestation and agricultural
DPSIR framework
intensification. The hydrological balance analysis results indicate that the agricultural intensification
Landscape
Multi-criteria decision analysis process produced a water deficit in summer periods equal to 0.89 mln m3 in 2003. The landscape of the
Lamone valley became more homogeneous, showing a decrease in diversity (Shannon Diversity Index
values decreased from 1.81 to 1.58) and the riparian corridor became more human-dominated (Human
Habitat values increased from 0.61 to 0.77). An integrated assessment of possible management options
has been conducted, using the MULINO-DSS software as a support. Thirteen different management
scenarios have been produced in order to solve the water balance issue and to enhance the riparian
corridor. Attributing equal weight to the environmental, social and economical criteria, the best solution
corresponds to the sole creation of artificial basins and the actual situation is placed at position 8 (out of
13).
ß 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction driven intensification has been the predominant trend in most EU

Changes in land use and land cover are among the major drivers
of terrestrial ecosystem transformations (Houghton, 1994; Lam-
bin, 1997; Petit and Lambin, 2002), as they have an impact on the
global carbon cycle (Houghton et al., 1999), the climate (DeFries
et al., 1997; Luvall, 1997), the biodiversity (Sala et al., 2000) and the
landscape ecology (Reid et al., 2000; Wickham et al., 2000).
Agricultural practices are one of the major causes of human-
induced land use changes and exert a significant pressure on
natural resources through the consumption of water, the use of
chemical fertilisers and pesticides, their influence on soils, water
quality and greenhouse gases emission (EEA, 2007a).
At the European level, the past impact of agriculture on
landscapes and biodiversity was positive, but modern, intensive
agriculture is often a threat to biodiversity (EEA, 2007a). Market-
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +39 0544937334; fax: +39 0544937411.
E-mail addresses: lorenzo.benini@unibo.it (L. Benini), vittoria.bandini@unibo.it
(V. Bandini), diego.marazza@unibo.it (D. Marazza), andrea.contin@unibo.it
(A. Contin).
regions for several decades, but since 1990 there are signs of a trend
towards a more efficient use of agricultural inputs (EEA, 2006). For
these reasons the EU is assigning great importance to the establish-
ment of a complete set of integrated indicators that reflect the
relationship between agriculture and the environment, and support
the political programme of ‘sustainable agriculture’, including the
preservation of landscape and habitats, biodiversity, water and air
quality (Bastian and Lütz, 2006; Jänicke and Zieschank, 2004).
In the Mediterranean region, one of the major issues concerning
agriculture-driven land use changes and the environment is water
scarcity. The European Commission states that all Mediterranean
EU Member States are affected by water scarcity, which is defined
as: ‘‘a situation where insufficient water resources are available to
satisfy long-term average requirements. This refers to long-term
water imbalances, combining low water availability with a level of
water demand exceeding the natural recharge’’ (EC, 2007). Many
rivers in Middle and Northern Italy also show water scarcity
problems due to local water management, where consumptions
due to irrigation and cool cycling activities reduce river discharge
(Canobbio et al., 2008) and, coupled with pollutants, impact the
river ecosystem.

1470-160X/$ – see front matter ß 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2009.03.016
 L. Benini et al. / Ecological Indicators 10 (2010) 4–14
The European Water Framework Directive and guidelines (EC,
2000, 2003) identify the need for a cause-responses approach for
the evaluation of pressures on the environment caused by human-
related activities and their associated impacts, in order to protect
water resources, promote sustainable water use, enhance protec-
tion and improvement of the aquatic environment. In this context
the DPSIR framework (Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impact, and
Response) proposed by the European Environment Agency (EEA,
1999), makes it possible to formalize all policy-making and
management processes by identifying cause and effects links
between the elements of the chain of human–environment
interaction (Giupponi and Vladimirova, 2006) and it emphasizes
the interaction between society (human activities in the river
basin) and environment in integrated river basin management.
This framework has been used to represent the causal link between
agricultural activities and their effects on ecosystems and land-
scapes (Bastian and Lütz, 2006; EEA, 2006; Mander and Koduvere,
2003; Wascher, 2000) and it has been used in several river basin
management studies (Borja et al., 2006; Fassio et al., 2005;
Giupponi and Vladimirova, 2006; La Jeunesse et al., 2003; Mysiak
et al., 2005).
In order to obtain a sustainable management that includes
water resource management and landscape planning, the identi-
fication of variables that exert a role on the system is required. The
DPSIR approach makes it possible to represent them as indicators,
because indicators should enable or promote information,
simplifying a complex realty (EEA, 1999). The design of spatially
targeted policies requires the support of robust methodologies,
extensive data bases and elaboration tools, such as models,
geographical information systems (GIS) and decision support
systems (DSS) (Fassio et al., 2005), so geographical information has
been collected and scenarios have been analysed using MULINO
Decision Support System software mDSS (Giupponi, 2007; Mysiak
et al., 2005).
In order to identify how land use changes and agricultural
conversions have affected the environment of the Lamone river
basin (Northern Apennines, Italy), a land use changes (LUC)
assessment, a landscape analysis and a hydrological analysis have
been performed (analytical and impact assessment level of the
analysis). The objectives of the analytical and impact assessment
level consist on the identification of main land use change and land
use conversion trends and their relative effects on landscape
properties and hydrological balance within the study area, for the
Fig. 1. Study area.
5
periods 1976 to 1994 and to 2003. In particular, the landscape
structure, the Human Habitat–Natural Habitat values at the
riparian corridor level and the evaluation of the hydrological
balance for the whole study area have been object of this study.
Moreover, in order to support the decision-making process at river
basin scale, a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) focused on
possible management scenarios related to the hydrological
balance issue and the riparian corridor enhancement, has been
performed (problem-solving level of the analysis). The objectives
of the problem-solving level consist on the identification of the
best management scenario and the comparison between the no-
action scenario (actual situation) and the other options, while
taking into account both environmental, social and economical
aspects.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
A sub-basin of the Lamone river basin has been selected as the
study area. This is because there is growing interest from the local
authorities, farmers and citizens concerning the environmental
quality of the Lamone river, in particular regarding the issue of
summer water scarcity. Moreover, the area of this case study is
representative of a sub-regional set of conditions that can occur all
along the northern and central Apennines and locally in some
regions of the southeast of Europe and it is considered by the
Regional Agency for Environmental Protection of Emilia Romagna
(ARPA-ER) as one of the first northern Italian river basin affected by
desertification process.
The selected study area (geographical coordinates:
448060 43.0900 N 118350 04.0100 E) represents the hill area of the
Lamone river catchment which is located in the Northern Italian
Apennines, between the Toscana and Emilia Romagna regions. The
water body is 88 km long from the river spring to its mouth on the
Adriatic Sea and the study area is 12318 ha, mainly located in the
upper part of the basin (Fig. 1), representing the 24% of the whole
catchment area. The area has been chosen because the major
environmental threats act on the middle part of the valley and data
are more available than in others areas; according to the local
authorities, such as the Province of Ravenna and the Lamone River
Basin Authority, the main issues affecting the river basin are: water
scarcity and low quality of the riparian buffer in the middle part,
6 L. Benini et al. / Ecological Indicators 10 (2010) 4–14

diffuse pollution in the terminal part, whereas the upper part is
quite natural, with good to high water quality values and riparian
areas characterized by natural vegetation.
The prevalent human activity is agriculture; few settlements
are located in the valley, mainly on the riverside. Urban water
supply is provided by a collection system that takes groundwater
from reservoirs located in the Lamone river basin and other basins
and, according to local statistical data provided by the Province of
Ravenna, more than 90% of the direct withdrawals from the river
are extracted to irrigate cropland.
2.2. Land use change
Land use conversion has been evaluated for two periods: from
1976 to 1994 and from 1994 to 2003 by overlaying and
intersecting successive land use maps and assigning to every
intersection a land use conversion label. The label has been
assigned to each new polygon created by the intersection, using a
reference matrix (Fig. 2) that expresses the typology of land use
change occurred on the basis of previous and successive land use
category comparison. The resulting map represents the land use
conversion that occurred in every patch during the period taken
into account, and spatially identifies what has occurred in the area.
Thirteen land use conversion categories (Table 2) have been
identified.

2.2.1. Detecting land use change 2.3. Cause-response framework

Land use changes (LUC) that occurred in recent decades have
been analysed using three different land use maps developed by
the Cartographic Department of the Emilia Romagna Region for the
reference years 1976, 1994 and 2003, applying them to the
selected study area using the ESRI ArcView 3.2 GIS software. Land
use maps present the same scale (1:25,000) but each one has a
different number of land use classes: 21, 16 and 42 respectively.
The minimal detectable area has the following extension for the
three reference years: 0.375 ha, 2.25 ha and 1.56 ha and represents
the different detail of the land use maps. The comparison between
the 3 years required a generalisation of the map themes. This has
been performed through the application of the methodology
developed by Bertozzi et al. (1993). The method consists in a
thematic generalisation of the land use categories of each map,
through the definition of a unique set of land use categories. As
confirmed by Petit and Lambin (2002), even though this technique
has some limitations (Coppin and Bauer, 1996; Singh, 1989), it is
the most appropriate method to compare data from different
sources, as each data layer can be generalized to a common land-
cover scheme before comparison. The following 11 land use classes
have been identified (Table 1): Rugged (R), Deciduous forest
prevalent (Df), Shrubs (Sh), Fruit farming and vineyards (Fv),
Conifer forest (Cf), Waterbodies (Wb), Grassland (Gr), Afforestation
(Af), Cropland (Cr), Urban (U) and Urban green (Ug).
2.2.2. Land use conversion
Land use conversions are defined and classified as the changes
in land use class that occurred in a given area. These classes
identify the typology of changes by assigning a land use conversion
label to each intersection created by the overlay of successive land
use maps, allowing a thematic representation of the spatial
distribution of changes. The method is based on the previous
generalisation of land use categories and offers a quantitative and
qualitative measure of conversion that occurred in the study area,
allowing the spatial distribution of land use changes to be reported
on a unique map.
The DPSIR framework (EEA, 1999) has been adopted as a basis
for the conceptual framework of the land use changes and
agricultural conversions acting on the Lamone river basin
environment. Even if this approach is useful to contextualize
problems and to identify linear connections between parameters,
yet it does not permit to conceptualize feedback loops and
relationships among parameters of the same category (D, P, S, I, R),
because the only feedback relations considered are the feedback
effects of responses in the D, P, S, I categories.
In order to solve this problem, a DPSIR-based theoretical
framework for agricultural LUC effects on river basins has been
developed using IHMC CmapTools (Novak and Cañas, 2008). This
software allows to depict conceptual maps such as the DPSIR
framework, with feedback loops between variables and connec-
tions within categories. The relationships between variables have
been established thanks to the local literature, to similar case
studies (Canobbio et al., 2008; Fassio et al., 2005) and to national
and international environmental reporting documents (EEA, 2006,
2007b). The resulting theoretical framework scheme is presented
in Fig. 3. Response variables are considered to be scenarios for
water scarcity and riparian quality issues and are described in
Section 2.6. Only major driving forces and feedbacks have been
taken into account, but this simple conceptual model nevertheless
provides a wide overview of the main environmental issues and
the relationships among variables. Water availability and land-
scape chains, which are highlighted by bold lines in the framework
scheme (Fig. 3), have been quantified by indicators. The study
focuses on these two chains due to the great environmental
relevance of these issues and for the data availability on the area.
Freshwater quality and desertification are also important aspects,
but there is insufficient data to include these chains in the analysis.
Indicators selected as metrics of variables are reported and
discussed in Section 2.6.1. Only indicators from D, P and S
categories have been considered, following a linear chain; Impact
indicators, which are the result of a combination of modifications

Table 1
Land use changes in the Lamone river basin.

Class Land use (ha) Land use change (%) Change rate (%/year)

1976 1994 2003 1976 1994 2003 1976–1994 1994–2003

R – Rugged 539 60 326 4.4 0.5 2.6 0.22 0.24

Df – Deciduous Forest Prevalent 3371 5063 5241 27.4 41.1 42.5 0.76 0.16
Sh – Shrubs 680 917 648 5.5 7.4 5.3 0.11 0.24
Fv – Fruit farming and vineyards 1163 2414 2152 9.4 19.6 17.5 0.57 0.24
Cf – Conifer Forest 102 n.d. 250 0.8 0.0 2.0 0.04
Wb – Water bodies 72 n.d. 205 0.6 0.0 1.7 0.04
Gr – Grassland 1532 2129 120 12.4 17.3 1.0 0.27 1.81
Af – Afforestation 526 40 90 4.3 0.3 0.7 0.22 0.04
Cr – Cropland 3982 1502 3012 32.3 12.2 24.4 1.12 1.36
U – Urban 309 158 244 2.5 1.3 2.0 0.07 0.08
Ug – Urban green 42 35 30 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.00 0.00
 L. Benini et al. / Ecological Indicators 10 (2010) 4–14 7

Fig. 2. Land use conversion matrix, modified from Bertozzi et al. (1993). For an explanation of terms, see Table 2.

in State parameters, are not as clearly related to the other variables,
due to the lack of data and knowledge on the area, and they are not
quantified in the analysis.
2.4. Landscape analysis
A landscape analysis has been performed on the study area for
the years 1976, 1994 and 2003. Changes in the structural landscape
properties have been measured in order to evaluate the effects of
land use changes on the Lamone river basin, obtaining an overview
over the 27-year period under examination.
The method proposed by Antwi et al. (2008) has been used for
landscape analysis in order to quantify land-cover structures and
associated diversity changes over time, calculating land-cover
statistics and landscape metrics for each map, for the entire study
area. According to the authors (Antwi et al., 2008) landscape
metrics were computed using the Patch Analyst GIS Tool
(McGarigal and Marks, 1995). The sub-set of selected metrics
includes patch density and size, edge and diversity metrics,
which globally describe the landscape structural properties
(Table 3) (Antwi et al., 2008; Mander et al., 2005a; McGarigal and
Marks, 1995; Wascher, 2000). In particular, the edge density (ED)
metric expresses the amount of linear edges present in the
landscape. ED is equal to 0 in the absence of an edge, when the
entire landscape consists of a single patch (McGarigal and Marks,
1995).

Table 2
Land use conversion in the Lamone river basin.

Land use conversion class Description Land use conversion (%) Conversion rate (%/year)

1976–1994 1994–2003 1976–1994 1994–2003

Pu – Urban persistence Areas where settlements persist during time 0.7 1.1 0.07 0.12
Iu – Urban intensification Areas converted to urban 0.6 1.0 0.03 0.11
E – Exceptionality Unusual conversion 1.8 0.2 0.10 0.02
P – Persistence Areas with no change in land use 55.2 70.9 3.07 7.88
Ia – Agrarian intensification Areas where agricultural activities substitute previous land use 2.4 1.1 0.13 0.12
Ci – Intensive conversion Agricultural areas where an intensive conversion has occurred 10.2 3.0 0.57 0.33
Ce – Extensive conversion Agricultural areas where an extensive conversion has occurred 0.1 3.5 0.01 0.39
R – Afforestation Areas where other land uses are converted into woodland 18.2 8.5 1.01 1.21
D – Deforestation Wooded areas converted to other land uses 6.5 5.1 0.36 0.57
Dn – Natural dynamic Areas where natural changes occurred 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00
A – Abandonment Urban and agricultural areas converted to shrubs and rugged areas 3.3 4.1 0.18 0.45
St – Stabilization Rugged areas that are converted to shrubs or grassland 1.1 0.1 0.06 0.01
De – Degradation Shrub areas converted to rugged 0.0 1.7 0.01 0.19
8 L. Benini et al. / Ecological Indicators 10 (2010) 4–14

Fig. 3. DPSIR framework of the agricultural land use changes at river basin scale.

Riparian corridor condition has been quantified using the prevalent (Df), 0.80; Shrubs (Sh), 0.10; Fruit farming and vineyards
Human Habitat–Natural Habitat (HH–NH) indicators for the three (Fv), 0.05; Conifer forest (Cf), 0.80; Waterbodies (Wb), 0.01;
reference years. This metric expresses the amount of Human Grassland (Gr), 0.50; Afforestation (Af), 0.10; Cropland (Cr), 0.12;
Habitat in a generic landscape, where ‘‘. . .HH can be defined as Urban (U), 0.0; Urban green (Ug), 0.10. The HH coefficients consist
areas that human populations inhabit or manage permanently, on the complementary to NH per each land use class.
limiting or strongly influencing the self-regulatory capacity of
natural systems. NH are natural ecotopes and landscape units that 2.5. Hydrological balance analysis
are dominated by natural components and biological processes,
but lack direct human influence and are capable of normal self- Water scarcity in the summer period is an emerging issue in the
regulation’’ (Ingegnoli, 2002). The HH–NH values have been Lamone river basin and, according to the local authorities, this is
calculated by applying the mean HH and NH coefficients to land strictly related to agricultural LUC. The water availability has been
use classes, considering the riparian corridor as a 125 m-wide evaluated by calculating the summer water requirement and
buffer on each side of the river. The NH coefficients applied to land hydrological balance for the years 1976 and 2003, using land use
use class are reported below: Rugged (R), 0.10; Deciduous forest maps and statistical data, identifying the trend of agricultural
water requirement and the hydrological balance in the river
catchment. Only the land use map of the years 1976 and 2003 have
Table 3 been considered suitable for the calculations because the original
Landscape and riparian corridor metrics. land use classification does distinguish between ‘‘Fruit cultivation
Landscape metrics Abbreviation Unit Year areas’’ and ‘‘Vineyards’’ classes, which are considered as the main
sources of water requirement. The land use map relative to 1994
1976 1994 2003
presents only one class including both land use classes and for this
Patch density and size metrics reason has been excluded from the analysis.
Number of patches NUMP 3565.2 601.5 833.1
Summer water requirement ðwri Þ for specific high water-
Mean patch size MPS ha 3.5 20.4 14.8
Patch size standard deviation PSSD 30.2 155.0 95.6 demanding cropland is defined by the Department of Agriculture of
the Emilia Romagna Region as the demand for water that allows
Edge metric the proper growth of the plant in summertime (from July to
Edge density ED m/ha 284.3 89.8 138.2
September). The total summer water requirement (Wr) consists of
Diversity metric
the sum of summer water need expressed by water-demanding
Shannon’s Diversity Index SDI 1.81 1.55 1.58 cropland in the study area; it is defined in Eq. (1).
Shannon Evenness Index SEI 0.76 0.67 0.66 X
Wr ¼ wr i  Si ½m3  (1)
Riparian corridor quality
Human Habitat HH 0.61 0.77 0.67
where wr i is the summer water requirement for class ‘i’ of land
Natural Habitat NH 0.39 0.23 0.33
use [m3/ha], and Si is the total amount of the class ‘i’ land use [ha].
 L. Benini et al. / Ecological Indicators 10 (2010) 4–14 9

The quantification of Wr on the area for each year has been Table 4
Analysis Matrix, Evaluation Matrix and weights. Indicators that compose the
performed by assigning the land use map classes a value of wr.
Evaluation Matrix are written in bold text.
Fruit cultivation and vineyards are considered to be the main
sources of wr in the valley and relative wr values have been Indicator Unit Weight Domain
calculated on the basis of the agricultural data on local crop Driving forces
cultivation derived from local statistical data. Others land use Fruit farming areas ha
categories are considered to be irrelevant to Wr when compared Vineyards ha
Specific profitability s/ha
with fruit and vineyard cultivation, so their Wr has been set to 0,
of cultivations
giving Eq. (2). The Wr is thus calculated by combining the Agricultural income loss s 0.333 ECONOMY
extension of high water-demanding cropland and the specific Agricultural area loss ha 0.166 SOCIETY
summer water requirement for the cropland, which include fruit Pressures
cultivation and vineyards. Fruit driven water m3/ha
requirement ðwr f Þ
Wr ¼ wr f  S f þ wr v  Sv ½m3  (2) Vineyards water m3/ha
requirement ðwrv Þ
where wr f is the summer water requirement expressed by fruit
State
cultivation [m3/ha], wrv is the summer water requirement Useful rainfalls (P) m3
expressed by vineyards [m3/ha], Sf is the total amount of fruit Water storage (Ws) m3
farming areas [ha], and Sv is the total amount of vineyards [ha]. Number of artificial basins num 0.167 SOCIETY
Summer hydrological balance (HB) at the catchment scale (3) is Hydrological balance (HB) m3 0.208 ENVIRONMENT
Riparian habitat (HH–NH) 0.125 ENVIRONMENT
defined as the hydrological balance between available water for
cultivation and global summer water requirement (Wr) expressed
at catchment scale.
been included in the Analysis Matrix of the ‘Design Phase’ (Table 4)
HB ¼ Ws þ P  Wr ½m  3
(3) (see Giupponi, 2007). Indicators of landscape structure are not
considered and only the HH–NH values for riparian corridor have
3
where Ws is the water volume stored in artificial basins [m ], P been included.
represents the useful rainfall for cultivation [m3], and Wr is the
global summer water requirement (1) [m3]. The useful rainfall for 2.6.1. Selected indicators
cultivation (P), according to the Regional Agency for Environ- The selected indicators for the Analysis Matrix (Table 4) are
mental Protection of Emilia Romagna (ARPA-ER), consists of the divided into three different categories: Environmental, Social and
sum of the monthly mean rainfall values registered within the Economical, and express a different value for each scenario
study area excluding the rainfall that exceeds the maximum examined. The environmental indicators wr, Wr, HB, useful rainfall
monthly consumption by cultivation. The values have been (P) and water stored (Ws) are described in the hydrological
provided by ARPA-ER and are based on the rainfall records analysis. The HH–NH values on the riparian corridor are described
registered by the local monitoring network from 1990 to 2001(for in the landscape analysis, and for scenario evaluation it was
the summer periods). For the study area, P is 3.53 mln m3 and it is quantified using GIS, assuming a 5-meter buffer from each
assumed to be representative for the 2003 and to be comparable agricultural area, creating a network of tree hedgerows and
with the P value registered in the year 1976. The water stored enhancing the natural riparian corridor.
within the artificial basins (Ws) has been calculated by the Two indicators have been considered as proxies for social
Regional Agency for Environmental Protection for the year 2003. indicators: agricultural surface loss and the number of artificial
The sum of the P and Ws values represents the available water for basins. This is because consultations conducted on the same study
cultivation. area under the EU INTERREG IIIC ‘Espace Riviere Europe’ (ERE)
Project (EU, 2004), showed that these two aspects represent a
2.6. Scenario identification and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis direct social concern for stakeholders, in particular for farmers’
unions and environmentalists, on opposite positions. Farmers are
Several normative scenarios (EEA, 2001) on the solution of the in favour of a wide diffusion of artificial basins and against the
issue of water scarcity and improvement of riparian habitats have reduction of agricultural surfaces; environmental protection
been developed and evaluated. The evaluation of the best river associations are against the diffusion of artificial basins, and have
basin management scenario was performed using a Multi-Criteria no preference on the reduction of agricultural area at the basin
Decision Analysis (MCDA), comparing the scenarios and the actual scale. These positions have been considered by setting the relative
situation using the software MULINO-DSS (mDSS) (Giupponi, value functions in the ‘choice phase’. The number of artificial water
2007) as a support. storage basins has been evaluated on the basis of the available data
mDSS adopts the DPSIR as a reference framework for the on volume/surface ratio for the artificial basins, provided by the
integrated approach to river basin management. This software river basin management Authority. The loss of agricultural surfaces
provides functionalities to support the integration of socio- has been quantified on the basis of the total amount of agricultural
economic and environmental modelling techniques with GIS areas that will be changed (from agricultural to: artificial basins,
functions and multiple criteria decision methods; it makes it tree hedgerows in the riparian corridor and other types of
possible to define indicator-sets arising from the DPSIR-based cultivation) for each scenario.
framework and guides the user through three decisional phases: The agricultural income loss indicator represents the econom-
‘Conceptual, or Intelligence Phase’, ‘Design Phase’ and ‘Choice ical loss caused by agricultural land use changes at the whole
Phase’ to identify the best scenario (Fassio et al., 2005; Giupponi, study area scale. The values have been quantified by the definition
2007). of the specific profitability of cultivations, referring to the
The DPSIR conceptual framework defined above has been condition of local agricultural production and according to
adopted for the ‘Conceptual phase’ of the mDSS analysis. Only a statistical data on fruit, grape and crops prices, provided by the
sub-set of the indicators selected in the conceptual framework has Province of Ravenna.
10 L. Benini et al. / Ecological Indicators 10 (2010) 4–14
2.6.2. Scenario definition
Three categories of actions have been identified in order to
define river basin management scenarios which address integrated
water management and riparian quality improvement. The
categories are:
 Artificial basin construction, which improves global water
availability through the excavation of artificial basins for spring
rainfall storage;
 Cultivation conversion, which reduce water demand through
cultivation conversion from fruit cultivation to wine production
or from fruit cultivation to crop cultivation;
 Riparian buffer quality improvement, which consists in devel-
oping a 5-m buffer of tree rows and hedges of autochthonous
vegetation on the boundary of the farming areas that are located
in the riparian buffer zone.
The first two actions deal with water balance management, and
the third one deals with landscape management for enhancement
of the riparian corridor. Riparian buffer quality improvement has
not been evaluated as a water management solution because it is
unclear how riparian buffer restoration affects river discharge. This
is because in order to enhance natural habitat, autochthonous
vegetation, such as willow and poplar trees, which have an high
water requirement, should be introduced (Guidi et al., 2008;
Preston and McBride, 2004; Sharma et al., 2001), exerting a
negative effect on river discharge. In any case, the vegetation can
exert a reduction in evapotranspiration on the boundary of the
cultivated fields, by the reduction of the evapotranspiration from
cropland. In this work it is assumed that the net effect of the
substitution of agricultural areas in the buffer zone with natural
vegetation is equal to 0, but this aspect requires more research in
order to be better understood.
A number of 13 management scenarios have been developed:
the ‘no-action’ scenario that reflects the current environmental,
economical and social settings of the river basin, and 12
normative scenarios that aim to solve the summer scarcity
issue, 5 of which include the riparian corridor enhancement
measure (Table 5). Each scenario consists of a linear combina-
tions of the three different categories of actions presented above,
excluding the no-action scenario which represents the actual
Table 5
Management scenarios at the river basin scale.
Id Scenario aimed at reducing water scarcity issue
0. Actual situation: no action
1. Artificial basins: diffusion of artificial water storage basins
2.A Agricultural conversion from fruit farming to vineyards
2.B Agricultural conversion from fruit farming to crops
1.2A.1 Agricultural conversion of 10% of the extensive areas, from fruit to vineyard,
coupled with the diffusion of artificial water storage basins
1.2A.2 Agricultural conversion of 20% of the extensive areas, from fruit to vineyard,
coupled with the diffusion of artificial water storage basins
1.2B.1 Agricultural conversion of 10% of the extensive areas, from fruit to crops,
coupled with the diffusion of artificial water storage basins
1.2B.2 Agricultural conversion of 20% of the extensive areas, from fruit to crops,
coupled with the diffusion of artificial water storage basins
condition. All the scenarios do not take into account future land
use dynamics.
2.6.3. Choice phase
The best scenario identification has been performed using a
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with mDSS. The MCDA
approach avoids many of the limitations of single criterion,
efficiency-based approaches, such as Benefit Cost Analysis (Prato
and Herath, 2007). The Evaluation Matrix (EM), which consists of
indicator scores for each selected scenario, and the Decision
Rules (Giupponi, 2007), which consist of a value function
definition and MCDA weighting method selection, have been
established.
The subset of indicators, considered as the decision criteria, has
been selected from the Analysis Matrix to compose the Evaluation
Matrix. The selected metrics are: loss of agricultural income, loss
of agricultural surfaces, number of artificial basins, hydrological
balance, riparian buffer HH–NH. The values of Social indicators
have been normalized using value functions defined on the basis
of the non-formalized results of the EU INTERREG IIIC ‘Espace
Riviere Europe’ (ERE) Project (EU, 2004) developed in the same
study area, assuming two main representative stakeholders:
Farmers and Association for the environment protection. For each
stakeholder and for each indicator considered relevant for social
concerns, the value functions has been set equal to the Pareto
frontier (Osborne and Rubenstein, 1994) of the curve that is
defined by the intersection between the stakeholders’ preference
curve. Environmental and economic indicators have been normal-
ized using cost-type and benefit-type value functions for the
maximization of the environmental and economic benefits (see
Giupponi, 2007).
The weighting method used for the MCDA is the Simple
Additive Weighting (Belton and Stewart, 2002). The weighting
assumptions have been produced through the use of the
hierarchical weighting module, reflecting the definition of
Sustainability (UN, 1987), in which the three components Society,
Environment and Economy have equal weight. The weights’
structure is reported in Table 4. This MCDA method maximizes the
trade-off between the three pillars of sustainability, according to
the weak sustainability hypothesis. A sensitivity analysis is
automatically provided by the MULINO-DSS software.
Id Scenario aimed at reducing water scarcity issue and
enhancing the riparian corridor quality
–
1.3 Diffusion of artificial water storage basins
and enhancement of the riparian corridor
–
–
1.3.2A.1 Agricultural conversion of 10% of the extensive areas,
from fruit to vineyard, coupled with the diffusion of
artificial water storage basins and the enhancement
of the riparian corridor
1.3.2A.2 Agricultural conversion of 20% of the extensive areas,
from fruit to vineyard, coupled with the diffusion of
artificial water storage basins and the enhancement
of the riparian corridor
1.3.2B.1 Agricultural conversion of 10% of the extensive areas,
from fruit to crops, coupled with the diffusion of
artificial water storage basins and the enhancement
of the riparian corridor
1.3.2B.2 Agricultural conversion of 20% of the extensive areas,
from fruit to crops, coupled with the diffusion of
artificial water storage basins and the enhancement
of the riparian corridor
 L. Benini et al. / Ecological Indicators 10 (2010) 4–14
Fig. 4. Land use for the years 1976, 1994 and 2003.
3. Results
3.1. Land use change and land use conversion
3.1.1. Land use change
Land use maps for the three historical moments are given in
Fig. 4. Land use changes and the change rate for the years 1976,
1994 and 2003 in the Lamone river basin are shown in Table 2.
Results show that the deciduous forest increased from 27.4% in
1976 to 41.1% in 1994 and to 42.5% in 2003. This class has the most
significant extension in the area for the years 1994 and 2003, with
the highest annual change rate in the period 1976–1994, which is
partially due to the afforestation activities conducted in 1976
(covering 4.4% of the area). Rugged areas show a global decrease
from 1976 to 1994 and an increase in the second period. Shrubs
show a small increase in 1994 and a successive small reduction in
2003. The ‘Fruit farming and vineyards’ class shows a relevant
increase from 9.4% to 19.6% during the first period, and a small
global decrement of 2.1% from 1994 to 2003. This land use
category is the third in terms of area extension in 2003. Coniferous
forests are not detected in the 1994 land use map, which may be
due to a different digitalization method in land use map
development. The changes have been evaluated for the period
1976–2003 and show a small increase. The same is true for the
waterbody class, where the evaluation shows a small increase
from 1976 to 2003. Grasslands increase from 12.7% in 1976 to
17.3% in 1994 and in the successive period decrease rapidly to
1.7%, the most significant decrease rate observed in the analysis.
Croplands show a significant decrease (2400 ha loss) over 18
years, from 1976 to 1994 and a rapid increase to 2003, with a
change rate of 1.36% per year, the highest rate of increase observed
in the period 1994–2003. The urban land use category shows a
decrease of 151 ha in the 18 years from 1976 to 1994 and a
recovery of 86 ha in 2003. This may be due to the demographic
decrease registered in the same period but, for the 1994 land use
map, it is probably due to an error in interpretation.
3.1.2. Land use conversion
Land use conversion that occurred in the Lamone river basin
from 1976 to 1994 and from 1994 to 2003 are shown in Table 2.
Land use patterns on the Lamone river basin are characterized by
high persistence, which is the highest value registered in the two
reference periods. From 1976 to 1994, 55.2% of the total area
shows a trend of persistence, and in the second period more than
70% of the area persists in the same land use. Afforestation shows
an increase of 18.2% from 1976 to 1994 and deforestation in the
same period is equal to 6.5%, totally producing a net afforestation
11
conversion. In the period 1994–2003, the rate of afforestation
conversion is higher than in the previous period and deforestation
increases too (Table 2). These dynamics are spatially distributed
in the upper part of the study area, expressing the net
naturalization process that occurred in the Lamone river basin.
The conversion categories that are related to agricultural changes
are: Abandonment, Intensification, Extensification and Agri-
intensification. The abandonment rate increased in the two
periods, reaching high values in the second, but small global
values. Intensification is the main conversion that was registered
in the first period, on more than 10% of the area, located mainly in
the lower part of the valley. Extensification processes did not
occur in the same period. In the 1994–2003 period, the
intensification rate decreased in the lower part of the study area,
and extensification processes occurred in the same proportion as
intensification, showing a diversification pattern occurrence. The
agri-intensification data show a small and constantly increasing
rate, which expresses the low amount of new surfaces occupied
by agricultural activities. Urban intensification processes concern
0.6% and the 1.0% of the valley respectively in the two periods, yet
these can be considered small conversion in comparison with the
other classes.
3.2. Landscape
3.2.1. Landscape structure
The number of patches (NUMP) detected at landscape level has
decreased by 83% in the first period, and increased poorly in the
second period. This result is partially explained by the land use
maps properties, for the minimum detection area values differ
between the three maps (see Section 2.2.1). From 1976 to 2003 the
total patch number decrease was as high as 77%, indicating that
over the years the Lamone river basin area has become more
homogeneous but well connected. Mean patch size metric (MPS)
expresses the grain of the landscape and the MPS results show an
increase from 3 ha to 20 ha in the first period and a decrease to 15
in the second period. This metric is biased by the different level of
detail among the land use maps, but the differences that have been
detected in MPS values are so high that cannot be only ascribed to
the bias. Even if the NUMP and MPS metrics are affected by
systematic errors, it is possible to identify that a homogenization
process occurred in the first period, increasing connectivity in the
valley. This is probably due to afforestation that occurred in the
upper part of the valley and to the intensification process that
occurred in the rest of the valley. In the second period records show
a small inverse trend, expressing the diversification process that
occurred in the area. Edge density (ED) results show that this
12 L. Benini et al. / Ecological Indicators 10 (2010) 4–14
metric has decreased by more than threefold from 1976 to 1994,
and has increased slightly in 2003 (Table 3). This information is
also affected by systematic error, but the great difference between
the values reveals a loss in heterogeneity, confirming the NUMP
and MPS results.
Shannon’s Diversity and Evenness Index (SDI and SEI) are
popular measures of diversity in community ecology (Antwi
et al., 2008; Forman, 1995). SDI is 0 when the landscape contains
only 1 patch; it increases as the number of different patch types
increase and/or the proportional distribution of the area among
patch types becomes more uneven (McGarigal and Marks, 1995).
Shannon’s Evenness Index (SEI) is 0 when the landscape contains
only 1 patch, and approaches 0 as the distribution of area among
the different patch types becomes increasingly uneven; SEI is 1
when the distribution of area among patch types is perfectly even
(McGarigal and Marks, 1995). These metrics are slightly affected
by map detail compared to NUMP, MPS and ED and the results
can be considered as representative of land use changes effects
on the landscape. Records on SDI show a decrease from 1.81 in
1976 to 1.55 in 1994 and an increment to 1.58 in 2003,
expressing a high decrease of diversity in the first period and a
slight increase in the second one. SEI data present a negative
trend that indicates a decreasing evenness in the Lamone river
basin (Table 3).
3.2.2. Riparian corridor
High values of HH show a high presence of human activities and
human-dominated land use, with a relatively small amount of area
available for natural ecosystems. Results show that during the first
period (1976–1994) the riparian corridor became more human
impacted because of the decrease of natural habitat and the
increase of human habitat (Table 3). In the second period the
opposite change occurred: the natural habitat of the riparian
corridor increased showing higher natural value than the results
obtained for the year 1994 and lower than value observed for the
year 1976.
3.3. Hydrological balance
The specific summer water requirement ðwrÞ, the total summer
water requirement (Wr) and the summer hydrological balance
(HB) parameters have been calculated for the years 1976 and
2003. The wr values for fruit cultivation and vineyards are,
respectively, 2.95  103 m3/ha and 1.18  103 m3/ha, meaning
that fruit cultivation areas require more water than vineyard areas
in the summer period. This result is dependent on the fruit
cultivation composition in the Lamone basins, which includes a
huge amount of kiwis and peach fruit, which have a high water
demand.
The Wr in the Lamone river basin data show a 1.94 mln m3
water requirement in 1976 and a growing water requirement
equal to 4.78 mln m3 in 2003. The useful rainfall value (P), assumed
to be equal for the two reference years, is 3.53 mln m3 and the
value for the stored waters (Ws) is not available for 1976 and equal
to 0.36 mln m3 in the 2003. In 1976 the rainfall value was higher
than the water requirement and the net evolution of agricultural
summer water requirement has affected the hydrological balance,
producing a water deficit of 0.89 mln m3 in 2003. This means that
useful rainfall and stored water are insufficient to supply all
agricultural water requirements for the summer period, causing a
water scarcity in the river basin. The lacking water is drawn from
the Lamone river by farmers, influencing the river discharge, which
in summertime does not usually reach the minimum vital
discharge level. The main water requirement increment occurred
in the lower part of the valley, in the same areas influenced by
intensification processes.
Fig. 5. Scenario ranking.
3.4. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
The MCDA results consist in scenario ranking, reported in Fig. 5.
The best scenario obtained from the MCDA is ‘1. Artificial basin’.
This is because this scenario solves the hydrological balance issue
by using a small amount of agricultural surfaces and producing a
small loss in agricultural income. This solution does not affect the
quality of the riparian buffer. The scenario ranked as second is
‘1.2A1’, which solves the hydrological balance issue by combining
two different actions: artificial basins construction and a conver-
sion from fruit to vineyard cultivation for 10% of agricultural areas.
The third-ranked scenario is ‘1.3’, which includes a riparian buffer
enhancing solution.
All of the scenarios that include the restoration of a natural
riparian condition always produce a worse solution than the same
scenarios without this option. This is because the restoration of the
natural riparian condition is not cost-effective and can be
considered as an ancillary solution. The ‘0. Actual situation’
scenario is ranked as 8th of 13 scenarios, expressing that the actual
condition is far from beneficial. At least seven normative scenarios
developed in the weak sustainability approach represent a better
river basin management option that, compared with the actual
condition, can improve the river basin management.
The sensitivity analysis provided by MULINO-DSS identifies as
the most critical criterion of the MCDA the ‘artificial basin number’
variable, indicating that social concerns are fundamental in the
identification of the best management solution in the Lamone river
basin.
4. Discussion
4.1. Analytical and impact assessment level
In the study area two main trends have been identified over the
27 years period: the afforestation in the upper part of the valley
and the increase in agricultural cropland in the lower part. Farmers
progressively abandoned the marginal agricultural areas and
moved into more suitable zones. The main result at the landscape
level is a homogenization process. Even if the landscape analysis is
biased by the different detail of the maps, it is possible to conclude
that the landscape became less diverse and less rich (loss of
diversity and more homogeneous pattern), but in general well
connected. The overall tendency towards the intensification of
agriculture in the lower valley affected the riparian buffer habitat,
which became more human-dominated.
The hydrological balance of the valley shows that the
agricultural land use changes have dramatically impacted the
water balance, producing a higher water requirement and
 L. Benini et al. / Ecological Indicators 10 (2010) 4–14
consequently a condition of water scarcity during the summer
period. The results confirm that the Lamone river basin is
threatened by water shortage and the agricultural conversions
appear to be the most relevant driving forces within the river basin.
The DPSIR-based conceptual model which has been adopted to
describe the effects of the agricultural land use changes is not
specific only for the Lamone river basin but can be used to
represent other basins having the same features. This framework
scheme is far from identifying all possible interactions among
variables, because anthropogenic and natural systems are extre-
mely complex, and can be hardly represented by indicators.
Moreover, the categorization of indicators is a subjective
procedure that has not been codified yet, so the indicators selected
to represent the environmental variables may differ from other
methodologies and also the DPSIR framework has demonstrated
biases in considering different perspectives and concerns of the
several stakeholders and in integrating the social and economic
aspects (Svarstad et al., 2008).
4.2. Problem-solving level
The analysis has identified that the actual condition is far to be
sustainable if compared with other management scenarios. The
MCDA results show that the best ranking scenario is ‘1. The
creation of artificial basins for water storage’, as it is more cost-
effective compared to the others. Scenario 1.2A.1, which includes
the conversion of 10% of the fruit cultivated areas into vineyards,
combined with the creation of few artificial basins, is ranked
second-best, followed by the scenario 1.3 which includes the
creation of artificial basins combined with the enhancement of the
riparian corridors.
It is important to note that the MCDA results have to be
considered as sound scientific based contribute to the public
debate about Lamone river basin management strategies and not
as a set of solutions that have to be implemented. This is because
assumptions and simplifications that have been made within the
analysis can strongly affect the ranking. First of all, the evaluation
of the scenarios has been performed using the paradigm of the
three pillars of sustainability, maximizing the trade-off between
environmental, economic and social aspects, through the hypoth-
esis of the full trade-off between the three pillars; thus, a different
sustainability approach and a different weighting method could
produce different results. The results of the ranking are also
probably biased because the limits of confidence (LC) have not
been taken into account. Without the LC, it is not possible to
conduct a statistical analysis that could define, with known
probability, whether the considered solution significantly differs
from the others.
The analysis does not take into account several aspects of the
proposed scenarios. First of all, the quantification of economic loss
considers only the loss of income by farmers, due to the loss of
agricultural surfaces, while it does not consider the costs for the
realization of the scenario, such as the excavation of artificial
basins and the establishment of new plantations. This is because
the costs of the realization must be internalized by the society
through the use of policy instruments such as subsidies and
incentives.
The social indicators that have been taken into account into the
MCDA can be considered a huge approximation of social concerns,
in facts no social surveys have been performed in order to set the
preference values and only the qualitative instances of two main
stakeholders group has been taken into account and translated
into quantitative measure, excluding the other stakeholder
categories. And more, the Sensitivity Analysis has identified the
number of artificial basin as the most critical criterion, therefore
emphasising the high relevance of the related social aspects and
13
revealing the necessity of a better understanding of the social
concerns.
Also these scenarios have not considered all the environmental
effects. For example, conversion from fruit cultivation to vineyards
or crop cultivation, which have been proposed as possible
solutions, might have an effect on the landscape of the valley
which has not been considered by the analysis. Moreover, the
measure for the restoration of riparian buffers may have
unconsidered positive side-effects on the river, such as the
filtration of polluted overland and subsurface flows, the protection
of the banks from erosion, the reduction of the growth of the
aquatic macrophytes thanks to canopy shading, the improvement
of the microclimate of contiguous fields, the creation of new
habitats in the land/water ecotones and the creation of greater
connectivity in landscapes due to new migration corridors and
stepping-stones as suggested by Lowrance et al. (1997) and
Mander et al. (2005b).
The scenario definition does not consider the effects of global
variables, such as the effects of the global economy and climate
change on agricultural land use choices. Only exploratory scenarios
can provide such an evaluation; normative scenarios impose
sustainability goals achievement that, in order to be reached,
require that policy-makers identify compensatory measures to
match local policy measures, overcoming the higher-scale effects.
In order to improve the selection of the weights, it is necessary
to implement a participative decision-making process on river
basin management with the stakeholders participation. More
accurate solutions and strategies can be identified in order to
support the integrated management and planning of the Lamone
river basin, such as the evaluation of the water quality and the
inclusion of the desertification issue.
5. Conclusions
Agricultural land use changes have significantly affected the
Lamone river basin, modifying the landscape properties and
leading to homogenization, both in the upper and lower part of the
study area. The riparian Natural Habitat was reduced and water
scarcity was caused in an area that previously to 1976 had never
experienced such problems. The multi-criteria decision analysis
results indicate that seven management scenarios are better than
the no-action scenario, therefore providing relevant information to
the local community as well to decision makers regarding the need
for the implementation of management actions.
This paper presents the coupling of land use change assessment,
landscape and hydrological analysis and problem-solving methods
and tools, using the DPSIR indicators framework. This research has
been performed in order to integrate the analytical and operational
approaches and to pursue a sustainable management at the river
basin scale. Even if relevant results on land use change effects and
management options are provided, further studies have to be
carried out in order to identify suitable strategy for the integrated
management of the Lamone river basin.
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