In my Ph.

D thesis, I referred to the balance of energy and

financial markets over the interest rates mechanism. The idle
overcapacity threat has been built since 1980s in the world
economy. Iraq Wars and the rapid growth and development of
BRIC economies disturbed the balance of energy and financial
markets. The aggregate demand and supply on global scale
can not be matched anymore through the interest rate
mechanism of financial markets. The global financial markets
crisis has put the banking industry and the flow of funds,
investment banking in a collapse. The recovery of asset values
and the rapid increase in unemployment in EU and USA;
Greek debt crisis and the high ratio of debt to GNPs of UK,
USA, Japan, Spain, Ireland, Portugal creates a new risk profile
for the global banking industry. The consumer confidence
stays low globally threatening the export oriented german
economy. The Debt to be collected only in Europe amounts to
400 billion Euro.
A new power game is in being, which might lead to new
tensions and regional wars in Balkan, Middle East and Far
East. A new global threat of banking industry and
uncontrolled deficit spending and financing of economies, the
imbalance of economical power against military power, could
probably lead to a global war. The history repeats itself, as
long as the mankind resists to learning necessary lessons from
history, failing to adapt themselves to the law of natural
economical and financial selection, suggesting always the
survival of the fittest (Charles Darwin), without any priority.

Turkey can play a very important power balancing role

between East and West, North and South, by joining the BRIC
Countries, just by keeping on Atatürk’s Foreign Policy of full
independence and neutrality without USA dominated NATO
membership. Turkey is a switching country in the Middle
East, securing all of energy transportation lines to Europe.
If Turkey would be governed in a proper way, utilizing her
scarce energy and natural resources, like Cobalt, Bor, Iron,
Copper, Water, Coal etc. in a planned and optimized way for
more health and educational progress of turkish population,
the next stage would be the production of software and know-
how intensive soft goods like computer programs, new web
services, ERP-Enterprise resource planning, SOA-Service
oriented architectures and CRM -Custumer relationship
management software like SAP, Microsoft, ORACLE.

The production of technology needs more quality in education

by more infrastructure investments like computer labs,
Nanotechnology, Material Test and Development Labs at the
Universities and Technology Institutes. The export of skilled
people like computer and industrial engineers,
mathematicians, physicists to world markets would bring more
knowledge and wealth to Turkey. The amount of R&D
investments are at a very low level, less than 3% of GDP as
compared to developed countries.

The political and civilian social institutions in Turkey are not

well organized, not very inefficient in increasing the quality
of people in politics and higher decision making levels.
Instead of using more modern business intelligence tools, the
decision makers follow their intutions and their own non-
verified qualitative risk profiles and preferences. This leads to
inefficient use of resources and more loss in productive human
capital in less-valued more energy consuming, labor intensive
industries like textiles, metal processing, agriculture in rural
areas.
The negative real capital accumulation, increasing
unemployment rates, high current account deficit,
worsening trade balance, much more imports than exports
and decreasing industrial production in Turkey, could lead
to a change in political power after the 12th September 2010.
The popularity of Justice and Development is decreasing after
supporting the kurdish democratic movement leader Öcalan
and PKK increasing disputes about Northern Iraq and the
solution of separatist kurdish problem.

Since 60 years of democracy in Turkey, no other political

party, has succeeded to be able to rule and keep political
power steadily more than 10 years. This historical evidence
implies that there will be probably a big power game after the
elections in 2011. The increasing social tensions and the
worsening of income distribution could lead to a civil war and
separation of eastern Turkey, if security forces like military,
police and justice could not keep the social peace and order in
all over Turkey.